Constellation Brands

Transcription

1 1/7 TRADING ALERT Constellation Brands Phone: 33 (0)

2 5-Jan-18 INDEX COMPANY RIC NAME ABSOLUTE TREND Close INDEX S&P 500 INDEX/d COMPANY CONSTELLATION /d d-1 Volat 30 D SCORING RSI daily.spx S&P 500 INDEX/d BULL 2 723,99 0,40 6,2 7,4 80,6 3,1 6,7 10,7 1,4 3,3 6,8 10,1 15,4 STZ CONSTELLATION /d BULL 225,79-0,75 13,4 13,1 54,9 2,3 8,3 20,0-0,1 4,1 8,5 13,9 37,2 Spread MA40 Spread MA120 Spread MA250 5 D TRADING ALERT 1 M 3 M 6 M 10 M 2/7 Data from yesterday close SPREAD = COMPANY - INDEX 7,3 5,7-25,7-0,7 1,6 9,3-1,4 0,8 1,7 3,7 21,8 EQUITY EXPOSURE ASSET MANAGER 80% LONG TRADER The Very ST trend is extracted from the 2 hours intraday charts, both for Absolute or Relative trend. ST MT and LT indications are taken from the daily chart. CONSTELLATION /d TREND* Reverse Level ** Very Short Term - 1 Wk BEAR 225,40 Short Term - 1 Mth BEAR 224,70 Medium Term - 3 Mths BULL 216,4! Long Term - 10 Mths BULL 197,50 * based on the DAILY chart!!! ** market on close MAIN FACT 20% SHORT Constellation Brands (cap 44,1B$) is falling sharply - 3,45% after lower than expected quaterly sales. Yestersay already, the stock was underperforming with a larger volume than the market average. Contellation is vulnerable with a scoring stronger than the S&P500. The daily On Balance Volume is not yet seller the the fast strip and RSI are Bearish. We stock is very close to the Bullish MT trend reversal level at 216,4$ potentially implying a further sell-off! Our trend reversal levels may help you to adjust your exposure in the coming sessions (last page)! Never forget your money management rules. Daily chart : OSCILLATOR LT BULL OSCILLATOR MT REDUCE LONG EXPOSURE OBV BULL Equity Trading NTL with a positive bias Relative Strength agsinst S&P500 Reversal level VST trend BEAR 0,832 ST trend BEAR 0,831 MT trend BEAR 0,826 LT trend BULL 0,741 huteauth@trendandtiming.com Phone : 33 (0)

3 INDICATOR EXPLANATION INTRADAY CHART Moving averages 3/7 Phone: 33 (0)

4 4/7 INDICATOR EXPLANATION MOVING AVERAGES OSCILLATOR Phone: 33 (0)

5 5/7 INDICATOR EXPLANATION RATIO against an INDEX TRADING ACTION Phone: 33 (0)

6 6/7 INDICATOR EXPLANATION OBV SCORING Phone : 33 (0)

7 7/7 Easy reading for the CHARTS: T&T RSI : we use the Relative Strength Index mainly as a trend indicator and not as an overbought or oversold indicator, because a mark et can remain oversold for very long periods ( ). Above 50, the trend is Bullish and vice versa. T&T oscillator : first of all, to get a Bullish trend, we need an oscillator above 1. Secondly, the MA, in red or green, shows the oscillator momentum. The cross between the indicator and the moving average can be used as a trading trigger. To be more efficient, you may open a Long position only if the cross between the oscillator and the MA occurs above 1. When the oscillator is above 1 and a Bearish cross occurs, it is not a sell signal, it is only time to reduce the exposure or to close the trade. T&T OBV curb : the On Balance Volume is an indicator taking into account the price and the trend of the last iteration. If the volume is more cons istent than usual it will impact heavily the OBV curb. We use several MA to fliter the OBV trend. T&T Equity Trading + : as long as we trade above the LT yellow strip, we can only open Long position. To initiate them, we need the asset price to be above its ST MA strip (Green area). When the asset price fell below the ST strip, the trade can be closed or the exposure can be reduced. T&T Scoring is a compilation of several oscillator lengths. Usually, we can consider that the trend is Bullish above 0 or Bearish below 0, but according to the asset category we prefer to apply a "Neutral area" around 0 to avoid or limit false impulsions linked to consolidation periods. T&T Strip 20+ is a compilation of 4 indicators: RSI + Oscillator + OBV + ST moving average strip. A BULL trend is drawn in green above 0 and a BEAR one is in red below 0. T&T Strip 60+ : same than the T&T Strip 20+ but with a MT moving average strip. T&T CMF : Chaikin money flow indicates accumulation (green) or distribution (red) volume. What is a STRIP? We use a channel made of two moving averages to determine the trend. We need a close above the upper one to become Bullish. O n the opposite, a close below the lowest moving average implies a Bearish signal (red). If a buying trade is already running and then the price comes down between the 2 mov ing averages, you can accumulate more positions as long as we don't see a close below the lowest moving average. IMPORTANT : our methodology is a mixed approach with results extracted from: trend following models, support -resistance levels, quantitative trend profile. Don't be surprised if sometimes, the T&T trend appearing on the chart is different than the one indicated in the table with t he ST, MT and LT trend and their own reversal levels. Charts are edited from ProRealtime.com Rough data are coming from Thomson Reuters. THEORETICAL EXPOSURE for Asset Manager & Trader ASSET MANAGER priority is given to the LT trend TRADER priority is given to the ST trend Long term BULL BULL BULL BULL Long term BULL BULL BEAR BEAR Medium term BULL BULL BEAR BEAR Medium term BULL BEAR BULL BEAR Short term BULL BEAR BULL BEAR Short term BULL BULL BULL BULL EQUITY EXPOSURE 100% LONG 80% LONG 70% LONG 60% LONG EQUITY EXPOSURE* 100% LONG 70% LONG 40% LONG 20% LONG CASH 0% 20% 30% 40% * of its maximum authorized risk Long term BEAR BEAR BEAR BEAR Long term BEAR BEAR BULL BULL Medium term BEAR BEAR BULL BULL Medium term BEAR BULL BEAR BULL Short term BEAR BULL BEAR BULL Short term BEAR BEAR BEAR BEAR EQUITY EXPOSURE 0% 20% LONG 30% LONG 40% LONG EQUITY EXPOSURE* 100% SHORT 70% SHORT 40% SHORT 20% SHORT CASH 100% 80% 70% 60% Based on a daily chart reading. Disclaimer : This document has been prepared solely for informational purposes, and is intended only for use by the designated recipient(s ). This information was obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. All information is subject to change without notice. T his does not constitute a solicitation or offer to buy securities or sell secutities or any other instruments, or a recommandation with respect to any security or instrument me ntioned herein. This is not a confirmation of terms of any transaction. No representations are made herein with respect to availability, pricing or performance. Additional information available on request. This document should only be read by those persons to whom it is addressed and is not intended to be relied upon by any person wit hout subsequent written confirmation of its contents. If you have received this message in error, please destroy it and delete it from your computer, Any form of reproduction, dissemination, copying, disclosure, modification, distribution and/or publication of this message is strictly prohibited. huteauth@trendandtiming,com Phone: 33 (0)