ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. Weekend Market Forecasting and Trading Report

Transcription

1 ROBERT D. MCHUGH, JR., Ph.D. Weekend Market Forecasting and Trading Report An Educational Publication of Main Line Investors, Inc. P.O. Box 1026 Issue No Address: Kimberton, PA Friday, October 13th, 2017 SUMMARY OF INDEX DAILY CLOSINGS FOR FRIDAY, OCTOBER 13th, 2017 Sep NASDAQ 1 NASDAQ 1 Russell 30 Yr Treas Sep Date 9 DJIA 9 Transports 2 S&P 1 COMPQ Bonds Sep Oct Sep ^14 Oct Sep ^06 Oct ^24 Oct ^12 Oct ^11 Key Economic Statistics Date VIX U.S. $ Euro CRB Gold Silver HUI Crude Oil 09/29/ /06/ /13/ Current Short-term Psychological Sentiment of the U.S. Stock Market Positive The Bottom Line from Today s Market Action: Stocks were mixed Friday, October 13th, the Blue Chips and Techs rising mildly while small caps had a small decline and Trannies fell hard. There is a Fibonacci Cluster turn window through October 20th, which is suggesting a top is possible this week. The Demand Power / Supply pressure indicator is helpful in forecast short-term trends not only with the Buy and Sell signals they give, but another feature from this indicator is we can get an early warning of a trend reversal when we see the Demand Power and Supply Pressure Indicators start to converge measurably. We see that happening now, which is giving us an early warning that a top is approaching. See chart on page 6. Another terrific forecasting tool is to look for Bullish and Bearish Divergences between the major stock indices and their 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator. When we see these divergences grow to significant size, it is an excellent predictor of a fast approaching trend turn. This weekend we see that there is a small Bearish divergence evident from late August 2017 through now between the S&P 500 and the NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indeicator, but there is also a much larger Bearish divergence from June 2017 through October These two divergences are warning a top is approaching that will lead to a sizable decline. See chart on page 16. There are two large Bearish Divergences between the NASDAQ 100 and its 10 day average Advance/ Decline Line indicator this weekend, telling us fewer stocks are participating in the rally, which is a warning that a top is approaching that will lead to a significant decline. The larger of the two is from July 2017 and is identified with orange diverging slope lines, and the smaller but growing divergence is shown above in purple lines we show in the chart on page 17. There is a large Bearish Divergence between the small cap Russell 2000 stock index and its 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator that is six weeks in the making, characterized by steep diverging slope lines, which is evidence that a stock market top is fast approaching and a strong decline is next. See chart on page 22. For the time will come when men will not endure sound doctrine; but wanting to have their ears tickled, they will accumulate for themselves teachers in accordance to their own desires; and will turn away their ears from the truth, and will turn aside to myths. 2 Timothy 4:3, 4 NAS Education to Help You make Money in Both Rising and Falling Markets Visit Our Website At Page 1

2 What You Get with a PLATINUM Subscription to Our Services: Platinum Elite Membership: Both Options and Exchange Traded Funds Trade Alerts! 15 to 30 Trades Per Year, where we communicate to you the details of our trades, within 15 minutes of when we conduct them on a best efforts basis Complete access to all of our Standard Subscription Services Education Services for Members where we answer questions about market conditions and our trades, especially helpful to individuals who are new at trading, or trading stock index options An extra 3 months free added to the term selected for individuals who are new to options trading and want to learn by paper trading our trade alert ideas We play both rising and falling markets and primarily trade options on Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) or the Exchange Traded Funds directly, for major stock market Indices, Gold, Silver, and Mining Stock indices, such as SPY, DIA, QQQ, RUT, GLD, SLV, and GDX. On occasion, we send out s intraday, commenting on intraday market price action as it relates to trading and the price/time patterns we see occurring in markets at that particular time. us at mainrdmch@aol.com for more information, questions, or a disclosure form to join. You get a credit for the unused portion of your standard subscription when you upgrade to Platinum. Platinum Elite Membership Pricing: October Specials: * 7 Months Term $1,195 ($1,095 if paying by Check) or, * 13 Months Term $1,399 ($1,299 if paying by Check) or, * 25 Months Term $1,999 ($1,899 if paying by Check) or, * 60 Months Term $4,499 ($4,399 if paying by Check) or, * McHugh s 49 Months Platinum Special! Just $3,799 with the right to extend an additional 4 years for Just an Additional $1,000. Save another $100 if paying by check, only $3,699). If you pay by check to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA Please include your address)! You get a minimum of 150 to 300 trades over 10 years, including both our Options and Exchange Traded Funds Trade Alerts. This offer is limited to the first 50 people, and is good for extensions, renewals, membership upgrades and new members. us at mainrdmch@aol.com for a disclosure form. To Subscribe, Renew or Extend your present Platinum membership: us at mainrdmch@aol.com for a Disclosure form. To pay by Credit Card: Simply go to and click on either the Subscribe Today or Renew Today buttons at the upper left of the home page, select Platinum, scroll down to the term you want and pay by credit card there. Note: We do not auto renew your membership, you have to renew yourself. To Pay by Check: Simply mail a check payable to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA Please include your address (which is your User ID) so we can apply payment to your account. Page 2

3 What You Get with a Subscription to Our Services: Standard Membership: Access to Daily and Expanded Weekend U.S. Market Forecast Reports Covering Stocks, Gold, Silver and Mining Stocks, Currencies, Oil and Bonds Access to our Featured Proprietary Amazing Stock Market Buy and Sell Purchasing Power Indicator (Short-term Trading) Access to our Demand Power/Supply Pressure Indicator (Short/Medium term Trading) Access to our Incredible Intermediate-term investing horizon Secondary Trend Indicator Access to our Long-term investing horizon Primary Trend Indicator Daily Executive Summary s providing key forecast indicator results, and full analysis of the day s activity Access to our Conservative Portfolio Model and Transactions Charts covering Technical Market Patterns and Elliott Waves Cycle analysis of possible important market turn dates, including our Phi Mate Turn dates, Bradley model turn dates, and Fibonacci price/time targets Occasional Mid-day Market Comment s Access to our Closed Platinum Trades Archives Standard Membership Pricing for October 2017: 7 Months Term $ Months Term $ Months Term $ Months Term $ Months Term $299 ($289 if Paying By Check) This Month s Featured Special Deal: 60 Months for Only $599 October Special To Subscribe, Renew or Extend your present membership: To pay by Credit Card: Simply go to and click on either the Subscribe Today or Renew Today buttons at the upper left of the home page, select Standard, scroll down to the term you want and pay by credit card there. Note: We do not auto renew your membership, you have to renew yourself. To Pay by Check: Simply mail a check payable to Main Line Investors, Inc., P.O. Box 1026, Kimberton, PA Please include your address (which is your User ID) so we can apply payment to your account. Page 3

4 Be Prepared for What is Coming, for What is starting now, in Global and U.S. Markets. It may not be what you think; it will not be what the Federal Reserve and Wall Street want you to Believe. Available at Dr. McHugh s new Best Seller, The Coming Economic Ice Age, Five Critical Steps to Survive and Prosper. This is a book you will want to give to those you care about. Buy it Direct from amazon.com at Table of Contents Page 2-3 Subscription Services and Pricing / Special Deals Page 4- Report Organization / Table of Contents Page 5- Purchasing Power Indicator Chart and Comments Page 6 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Chart and Comments Page 7 Secondary Trend Indicator Chart and Comments Page 8- Blue Chip Stock Trends Summary (Signals, Age of Trend, Interpretation) Page 9 Primary Trend Indicator (Long-term Trend Time Horizon) Page 9-12 Today s Market Comments Page 13- Key Trend Indicator Statistical Levels for Today and the Past Week Page 14- Statistics for Today (NYSE) and key indicator charts Page 15- Signal Performance Summary (All Markets Signals) Page 16 S&P 500 vs. 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator Page Technology Trends (NASDAQ 100) Page Small Caps Page Precious Metals and Mining Stocks Trends Page Trader s Corner and Past Trading Performance Statistics Page 33 through 52 Elliot Wave and Other Mapping and Analytical Charts Page Glossary of Terms (Educational Information on how to use this Report) Page Disclaimer, ETF Symbols, Elliott Wave Notation Key Education to Help Prepare for The Coming Economic Ice Age Page 4

5 MCHUGH S MARKET FORECASTING & TRADING REPORT Our Purchasing Power Indicator (The Short-term Market Trend, typically from 1 to 4 weeks) Our Purchasing Power Indicator triggered a new Buy Signal Wednesday, August 30th, 2017 and remains there October 13th. It rose to positive Friday, October 13th, 2017, and needs to fall below positive for a new Sell. After the Buy signal on January 3rd, 2017, the Industrials rose 1,234 points and the S&P 500 rose 138 points. After our Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy signal on November 7th, 2016, the S&P 500 rose 140 points and the Industrials rose 1,715 points! After our Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy signal on February 12th, 2016, the Industrials rose 2,133 points! After our PPI triggered a Sell on January 4th, 2016, the Industrials declined 1,025 points! After our PPI generated a Buy on October 5th, 2015 the Industrials rose 1,201 points. After our PPI generated a Sell on July 24th, 2015 the Industrials fell 2,198 points. This indicator is identifying significant trends! Are you ready for the next Signal Change? For information on how to use this indicator, go to the Glossary at the end of this report. Page 5

6 Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator (The Short/Medium-term Time Horizon Trend, typically from 1 to 3 Months) Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator generated an Enter Long signal September 11th, 2017, and remains there October 13th, Since this Buy signal the S&P 500 has risen 67 Points. However, one feature from this indicator is we can get an early warning of a trend reversal when we see the Demand Power and Supply Pressure Indicators start to converge measurably. We see that happening now, which is giving us an early warning that a top is approaching. After the Buy signal in November 2016, the S&P 500 rose 170 points and the Dow Industrials rose 1,701 points! After it triggered a Buy on February 17th, 2016, the Industrials rose 1,713 points! After the DP/SP Indicator triggered a Sell on December 31st, 2015, the S&P 500 dropped 231 points. After this Sell Signal, the Industrials plunged 1,974 points. For information on how to use this indicator, go to the Glossary at the end of this report. Page 6

7 Our Secondary Trend Indicator (The Intermediate-term Time Horizon Market Trend, typically from 3 to 12 Months) Our Secondary Trend Indicator generated a new Intermediate term Buy Signal August 30th, 2017, and remains there October 13th, but sits at an extreme overbought level. After the last Buy signal in May 2016, the Industrials rose 744 points. It triggered a Buy signal March 3rd, 2016 which led to a 1,223 point rally in the Industrials. After the July 22nd, 2015 Sell Signal, the Industrials fell 2,400 points through January 20th, 2016! For information on how to use this indicator, go to the Glossary at the end of this report. Page 7

8 Blue Chip Stock Trends Signals (For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500) Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 Week to 1 Month Hourly and Daily Traders): (Sideways (Sideways Young, More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of S&P 500 Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation Purchasing Power Indicator: Buy 08/30/17 2, Maturing More Trend Possible 30 Day Stochastic Indicator: Buy 10/02/17 2, Maturing More Trend Possible 14 Day Stochastic Indicator: Buy 10/04/17 2, Young More Trend Likely Note: We Like to Consider the above 3 Indicators together to confirm a new trend. If all three are in agreement, that confirms a new trend. If any one has a different signal than the others, that suggests a sideways move is occurring, or a trend turn is in process. Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 3 Months Daily Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible Neutral, or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of S&P 500 Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation Demand Power/ Supply Pressure: Buy 09/11/17 2, Maturing More Trend Possible Intermediate-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 12 Months Weekly Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of S&P 500 Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation Secondary Trend Indicator: Buy 08/30/17 2, Maturing More Trend Possible Page 8

9 Blue Chip Stock Trends Signals (For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500) Long-term Horizon (Over the Next 6 Months to 2 Years Monthly Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of S&P 500 Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation Primary Trend Indicator: Buy 10/31/16 2, Young More Trend Likely Note: Markets are volatile and trends can reverse, affecting these signals at any time. The further in time these signals are from when they were first generated, the greater the risk the trend could change. Trading involves risk and that risk should be managed with investment limits, stop losses, or other tools to prevent loss. While these signals have proven to be excellent at identifying trends, over-the-horizon risk analysis (and background indicator analysis) is important, and the longerterm trend needs to be kept in mind when trading the shorter-term trends. Today s Market Comments Interesting stuff this weekend. Stocks were mixed Friday, October 13th, the Blue Chips and Techs rising mildly while small caps experienced a small decline and Trannies fell hard. There is a Fibonacci Cluster turn window through October 20th, which is suggesting a top is possible this week. Our Demand Power / Supply Pressure indicator is helpful in forecasting short-term trends, not only with the Buy and Sell signals, but another feature from this indicator is we can get an early warning of a trend reversal when we see the Demand Power and Supply Pressure Measures converge. We see that happening now, which is giving us an early warning that a stock market top is approaching. See chart on page 6. Another terrific forecasting tool is to look for Bullish and Bearish Divergences between the major stock indices and their 10-day average Advance/ Decline Line Indicators. When we see these divergences grow to significant size, they become an excellent predictor of an approaching trend turn. This weekend we see that there is a small Bearish divergence evident from late August 2017 through now between the S&P 500 and the NYSE 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, but there is also a much larger Bearish divergence from June 2017 through October These two divergences are warning a top is approaching that will lead to a sizable decline in Blue Chips. See chart on page 16. Page 9

10 Today s Market Comments (continued) There are also two large Bearish Divergences between the NASDAQ 100 and its 10-day average Advance / Decline Line indicator this weekend, telling us fewer stocks are participating in the tech rally, which is warning that a top is approaching that will lead to a significant decline. The larger of the two is from July 2017 and is identified with orange diverging slope lines, and the smaller, but growing, divergence is identified with purple lines we show in the chart on page 17. There is also a large Bearish Divergence between the small cap Russell 2000 stock index and its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, that is six weeks in the making, characterized by steep diverging slope lines, which is evidence that a stock market top is fast approaching and a strong decline is next. See chart on page 22. There is a fascinating similarity between the stock rise to a Bull market top from August 2007 through October 2007 (which concluded a Bull market with a major top) and the stock rise from August 2017 through now. See the analog charts on page 34. The point of analogs is they identify similar psychological profiles for the population of stock investors from two different periods, giving us an insight into what could happen next. If we look at the Elliott Wave charts on pages 35 through 37 we see the Industrials and the S&P 500 are finishing fifth waves of a rising trend. In the EW world, impulsive rallies usually have a lifespan of five waves, so when we see fifth waves concluding, there is evidence that a top is near and a decline is next. The larger the rising wave trend, the greater the subsequent decline. The chart on page 38 shows the S&P 500 s price action over the past few weeks. We see several overlapping waves with mild upward progress, but a trendline connecting tops is converging with a trend-line that is connecting bottoms. This could be an Ending Diagonal pattern, a.k.a. a Rising Bearish Wedge, which is a termination top pattern. We also see a similar pattern in the chart on page 39 for the NASDAQ 100. Both Rising Wedge patterns are concluding Bull market rallies. In the chart on page 43 we see the Dow Transportation average is finishing the fifth wave of a five-wave impulsive rising trend. This tells us the rally phase for Trannies is concluding. Bear markets can wipe out years of stock market gains in a few months, which is why we pay so much attention to the evidence for approaching tops. Trading the start of a Bear market can be extremely profitable because the cost of options is far less expensive to play the downside move if we position before the decline, generating for us a double gain, one from the rising intrinsic value of the coming price decline in the direction we are playing, the other from the increase in value due to the volatility premium component of the options we already own. Once the decline begins, options generally get very expensive to purchase. Profits can still result, however positioning early can be an extremely profitable opportunity. Note: All the above analysis is an early warning. We would not conclude the stock market top has arrived until we get new Sell signals in our key trendfinder indicators. Page 10

11 Today s Market Comments (continued) Regarding Mining stocks, there is a Bullish divergence between the HUI Mining stocks index and its 10-day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, shown in chart on page 26, suggesting a bottom is approaching that will lead to a new rally trend. In the chart on page 49 we show an interesting stock pattern with predictive potential for Mining stocks. While not a guarantee at this time, and make no mistake this pattern is not complete, however should the HUI Mining Stocks Index rise to 290, then it would have completed a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom, with an upside price target of 500ish, a huge upside move. Of particular interest this weekend is a chart for Oil. From the beginning of 2017 through now, $WTIC has formed and completed a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders bottom pattern, shown in chart on page 46. This pattern suggests Oil is headed for 62ish over the coming months. Also interesting this weekend is the Commodities Index has also formed and completed a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders bottom. See chart on page 47. What would send Miners, and Oil and the Commodity Index north? Possibly war would do that. Our Blue Chip key trend-finder indicators moved to a Buy signal Wednesday, October 4th, 2017 and remain there Friday, October 13th. The Purchasing Power Indicator component triggered a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th. The 14-day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 4th, and the 30 Day Stochastic Indicator generated a Buy on October 2nd. When these three indicators are in agreement, it is a short-term (1 week to 3 months' time horizon) key trend-finder directional signal. When these three indicators are in conflict with one another, it is a Neutral (Sideways) key trend-finder indicator signal. Our intermediate term Secondary Trend Indicator generated a Buy signal Wednesday, August 30th, and remains there Friday, October 13th, rising 7 points Friday (out of a possible 9 points), to positive + 36, needing to drop below negative -5 threshold for a new Sell. This Indicator sits at an extreme outlier overbought level this weekend. Demand Power was Flat at 385 Friday while Supply Pressure rose 1 to 363, telling us Friday's rise in Blue Chips was weak. We are now seeing convergence between the Demand Power measure and Supply Pressure, which often time is an early warning of a fast approaching trend turn. This DP/SP Indicator moved to an Enter Long Signal Monday, September 11th, and remains there Friday, October 13th, Page 11

12 Today s Market Comments (continued) The Plunge Protection Team Indicator moved back to an "Off" signal on August 23rd, which means the PPT is likely to stand down from supporting the markets while this indicator remains on an "Off." This does not mean stocks cannot rally, it just means there is not likely to be significant government intervention at this time. This indicator is designed to identify high probability periods where the PPT will be supporting, or buying the stock market (when it is on a Buy signal) and when it moves to a Neutral of Off signal (formerly called Sell), it does not mean the stock market will decline, it means the PPT's interest in buying the market is off rather than on, and market forces outside the PPT are more likely to determine stock trends up or down. In other words, a Neutral or Off signal means the odds are higher that the PPT stands down or has little influence on price trends. Caution: I would not bet the farm on a Crash. Crashes are rare and maybe the pattern will morph into something we presently do not see that is less ominous. Risk must be managed. Maybe the Fed buys the entire stock market, who knows given their track record. Maybe a black swan event is postponed several months. Gold and Minors rose Friday, October 13th. They generated a Sell signal Friday, September 15th, as the HUI 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Sell signal September 15th, and our HUI Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Sell on September 11th. When these two indicators are in agreement, it is a directional signal, and when at odds with one another, it is a combination neutral signal. On September 18th, the HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator triggered an Enter Short signal. On Friday, October 13th, Demand Power was flat at 391 while Supply Pressure fell 2 to 395, telling us Friday's HUI rise was weak. Page 12

13 SUMMARY OF TODAY S & PAST WEEK S TRADING INDICATOR STATISTICS Blue Chips S&P 500 / DJIA / NYSE Purchasing Date Power Indicator Interpretation Oct 6 Flat 0 at Oct 9 Down 1 to Oct 10 Up 1 to Oct 11 Up 1 to Oct 12 Down 1 to Oct 13 Flat 0 at The PPI must rise more than 6 points above its recent low to trigger a new buy signal, and must fall more than 6 points below it recent high to trigger a new sell signal. The PPI Must fall below positive for a new Sell Signal. 30 Day Stochastic 14 Day Stochastic Date Fast Slow Fast Slow Interpretation Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct Oct The Fast has to fall more than 10 points below the Slow for a new sell, or the Fast has to rise more than 10 points above the Slow for a new buy. Demand Supply Date Power Pressure Interpretation Oct 6 Down 5 to 391 Up 3 to 355 Oct 9 Down 4 to 387 Up 4 to 359 Oct 10 Flat 0 at 387 Down 2 to 357 Oct 11 Flat 0 at 387 Up 2 to 359 Oct 12 Down 2 to 385 Up 3 to 362 Oct 13 Flat 0 at 385 Up 1 to 363 The Demand Power Indicator Needs to Rise more than 10 points above the Supply Pressure Indicator for a new buy signal, or the Supply Pressure Indicator must rise more than 10 points above the Demand Power Indicator for a new Sell Signal. Crossovers less than 10 points are Neutral Signals. Secondary Date Trend Indicator Interpretation Oct 6 Down 5 to + 29 Oct 9 Down 3 to + 26 Oct 10 Up 6 to + 32 Oct 11 Down 1 to + 31 Oct 12 Down 2 to + 29 Oct 13 Up 7 to + 36 Above positive + 5 is Bullish, a Buy signal. Below negative 5 is Bearish, a Sell signal. While a move above zero is a good indication of a coming rising trend, and below zero is a good indication of a coming declining trend, for best trading results, it is better to wait for this indicator to move above positive + 5 or below negative 5. The closer it moves toward zero, the greater the risk of a coming trend turn. Readings near positive + 30 show overbought market conditions And near negative 30 indicate an oversold market condition. Page 13

14 Key NYSE Internal Strength Statistics for Friday, October 13th: Volume as % 10 Day Average Points % Up Points % Down New 52 Week Highs New 52 Week Lows Advancing Issues Declining Issues Advancing Issues % Declining Issues % Volume % Up Volume % Down Closing Ticks Closing Trin Today 107% 38% 62% % 41% 56% 44% Yesterday 106% 34% 66% % 47% 58% 42% Blue Chip Stock Background Stock Trend Indicators For the Dow Industrials, NYSE, S&P 500 (Used to Evaluate the Age of Current Trends) McClellan Oscillator (+300 Extreme Overbought/-300 Extreme Oversold) Today Yesterday Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator (+800 Extreme Overbought/-800 Extreme Oversold) Plunge Protection Team Indicator * A rise above positive or a drop below negative 16.0 triggers a new buy signal. On the other hand, declines can (don t have to) occur when this reading falls within the range of negative to positive Next Phi Mate Turn Date December 27th, /- a few days Next Bradley Model Turn Date (Major Turn) January 17th, /- a few days Official Hindenburg Omen Potential Stock Market Crash Signal May 31st, 2017, Remains on the Clock through December 16th, This H.O. has 9 Observations. Page 14

15 Summary of McHugh s Proprietary Index Key Trend-finder Buy/Sell Signals And Their Performance Fullest Extent of Index Term Signal Date Current Signal Index Move Since Signal DJIA Purchasing Power Indic DJIA Short Buy Aug 30th, 2017 DJIA 14 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Buy Oct 4th, 2017 DJIA 30 Day Stochastic DJIA Short Buy Oct 2nd, 2017 Demand Power /Supply Pressure S&P Short Buy Sep 11th, 2017 NYSE 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic S&P Short Buy Aug 25th, 2017 Secondary Trend Indicator DJIA Intermediate Buy Aug 30th, 2017 NDX Purchase Power Indic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy Sept 27th, 2017 NDX 14 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy Oct 2nd, 2017 NDX 30 Day Stochastic NASDAQ 100 Short Buy Aug 30th, 2017 NDX 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic NDX Short Buy Oct 2nd, 2017 Demand Power /Supply Pressure NDX Short Buy Oct 5th, 2017 RUT Purchase Power Indic RUT Short Buy Aug 30th, 2017 RUT 10 Day Adv/Decline Indic RUT Short Buy Aug 31st, 2017 HUI Purchasing Power Indic HUI Short Sell Sept 11th, 2017 HUI 30 Day Stochastic HUI Short Sell Sept 15th, 2017 HUI Purchasing Power Indic GOLD Short Sell Sept 11th, 2017 HUI 30 Day Stochastic GOLD Short Sell Sept 15th, 2017 Plunge Protection Team Indic DJIA Short Off Aug 23rd, 2017 Primary Trend Indicator S&P 500 Long Buy Oct 31st, 2016 Jesus said to them, I am the bread of life; he who comes to Me shall not hunger, and he who believes in Me shall never thirst. For I have come down from heaven, For this is the will of My Father, that everyone who beholds the Son and believes in Him, may have eternal life; and I Myself will raise him up on the last day. John 6: 35, 38, 40 For I know the plans I have for you," declares the LORD, "plans to prosper you and not to harm you, plans to give you hope and a future. Jeremiah 29:11 Page 15

16 Our S&P 500 versus 10 Day Average Advance / Decline Line Indicator (Identifying Bullish and Bearish Divergences for early detection of future trend turns) One terrific forecasting tool is to look for Bullish and Bearish Divergences between the S&P 500 and the NYSE 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator. When we see these divergences grow to significant size, it is an excellent predictor of a fast approaching trend turn. This weekend we see that there is a small Bearish divergence evident from late August 2017 through now, but there is also a much larger Bearish divergence from June 2017 through October These two divergences are warning a top is approaching that will lead to a sizable decline. Page 16

17 Our NASDAQ 100 versus 10 Day Average Advance / Decline Line Indicator (Identifying Bullish and Bearish Divergences for early detection of future trend turns) There are two large Bearish Divergences between the NASDAQ 100 and its 10 day average Advance/ Decline Line indicator, telling us fewer stocks are participating in the rally, which is a warning that a top is approaching that will lead to a significant decline. The larger of the two is from July 2017 and is identified with the orange diverging slope lines, and the smaller but growing divergence is shown above in purple lines. Page 17

18 Our NASDAQ 100 Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator (Identifying Medium term Buy and Sell Signals and also Bullish and Bearish Divergences for early detection of future trend turns) There is a small developing Bearish divergence between the NASDAQ 100 s price index and its Demand Power measure, an early warning a top is developing. Page 18

19 Technology Stock Trends Signals (For the NASDAQ 100) Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 Week to 1 Month Hourly and Daily Traders): (Sideways (Sideways Young, More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation NDX Purchasing Power Indicator: Buy 09/27/17 5, Young More Trend Likely 30 Day Stochastic Indicator: Buy 08/30/17 5, Maturing More Trend Possible 14 Day Stochastic Indicator: Buy 10/02/17 5, Young More Trend Likely The NDX PPI Needs to fall below positive for a New Sell Signal. Note: We Like to Consider the above 3 Indicators together to confirm a new trend. If all three are in agreement, that confirms a new trend. If any one has a different signal than the others, that suggests a sideways move is occurring, or a trend turn is in process. Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 1 to 3 Months Daily Traders): (Sideways) (Sideways) Young, More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible Neutral, or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of NDX Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation Demand Power/ Supply Pressure: Buy 10/05/17 6, Young More Trend Likely Key NASDAQ 100 Internal Strength Statistics for Friday, October 13th: Volume as % 10 Day Avg. Points % Up Points % Down Advancing Issues % Declining Issues % Volume % Up Volume % Down Today 100% 85% 15% 67% 33% 69% 31% Yesterday 123% 53% 47% 53% 47% 37% 63% Page 19

20 NASDAQ 100 Key Trendfinder Indicator Statistics Demand Supply Purchasing 30 Day Stochastic 14 Day Stochastic Date Power Pressure Power Indicator Fast Slow Fast Slow Oct 6 Flat 0 at 418 Down 1 to 406 Flat 0 at Oct 9 Down 3 to 415 Flat 0 at 406 Flat 0 at Oct 10 Down 1 to 414 Up 2 to 408 Flat 0 at Oct 11 Down 1 to 413 Up 2 to 410 Up 1 to Oct 12 Down 2 to 411 Down 1 to 409 Down 1 to Oct 13 Up 1 to 412 Down 3 to 406 Up 2 to The NDX PPI Needs to fall below positive for a New Sell Signal. Today Yesterday NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator (+30 Extreme Overbought/-30 Extreme Oversold) Today s Technology NDX Market Comments The NDX Short-term key Trend-finder Indicators generated a Buy signal Thursday, September 21st, 2017, and remain there October 13th, The NDX Purchasing Power Indicator generated a Buy on September 27th, the NDX 14 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on October 2nd, 2017 and the 30 Day Stochastic triggered a Buy signal on August 30th. When all three component indicators are in agreement on signals, it is a consensus directional signal. When they differ, it is a sideways signal. The NDX Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator moved to an Enter Long positions signal Thursday, October 5th and remains there October 13th. On Friday October 13th, Demand Power rose 1 to 412, while Supply Pressure fell 3 to 406, telling us Friday s rise was mild. The NDX 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator triggered a Buy signal October 2nd, needing to fall below negative for a new Sell. It fell to positive on Friday, October 13th, Page 20

21 Our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator (Identifying trend turns) Small caps have risen sharply since our Russell 2000 Purchasing Power Indicator Buy signal on August 30th. We are now watching for a new Sell signal. A decline in the PPT below would trigger a new Sell signal. Page 21

22 Our Russell 2000 versus 10 Day Average Advance / Decline Line Indicator (Identifying Bullish and Bearish Divergences for early detection of future trend turns) There is a large Bearish Divergence between the small cap Russell 2000 stock index and its 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator that is six weeks in the making, characterized by steep inverse slope lines, which is evidence that a stock market top is fast approaching and a strong decline is next. To buy the market now may catch a bit more of the recent blow-off rally, but it is high risk to do that as this reliable indicator is warning a decline is imminent, one that is not going to be gentle. The larger the divergence, the greater the reversal move. Page 22

23 Small Cap Stock Trends Signals (For the RUSSELL 2000) Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 Weeks Hourly and Daily Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of RUT Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation RUT Purchasing Power Indicator: Buy 08/30/17 1, Maturing More Trend Possible Date Purchasing Power Indicator Oct 6th Flat 0 at Oct 9th Down 1 to Oct 10 Up 1 to Oct 11 Flat 0 at Oct 12 Flat 0 at Oct 13 Flat 0 at The RUT PPI Needs to Fall Below for a New Sell. Key Russell 2000 Internal Strength Statistics for Friday, October 13th: Volume as % 10 Day Avg. Advancing Issues Declining Issues Advancing Issues % Declining Issues % Volume % Up Volume % Down 10 Day Average Advance/Decline Line Indicator (+500 Extreme Overbought/-500 Extreme Oversold) Today 96% % 51% 47% 53% Yesterday 97% % 55% 43% 57% Page 23

24 Mining Stocks Signals (For the HUI and Has Excellent Correlation with Gold) Short-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 Weeks Hourly and Daily Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of HUI Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation HUI Purchasing Power Indicator: Sell 9/11/ Young More Trend Likely The HUI PPI Needs to Rise above for a New Buy Signal. Medium-term Horizon (Over the Next 2 to 4 Weeks Daily Traders): (Young, (More Trend Likely, Maturing, More Trend Possible or Old) or Approaching End) Buy or Sell Date of HUI Age of Signal s Status Indicator Name Signal Signal Signal Interpretation 30 Day Stochastic Indicator: Sell 9/15/ Young More Trend Likely Key HUI Internal Strength Statistics for Friday October 13th: Volume as % 10 Day Avg. Points % Up Points % Down Advancing Issues % Declining Issues % Volume % Up Volume % Down HUI Purchasing Power Indicator 30 Day Stochastic Fast 30 Day Stochastic Slow Demand Power Level Supply Pressure Level Today 95% 72% 28% 60% 35% 62% 33% to to 395 Yesterday 88% 54% 46% 40% 50% 53% 45% to to 397 Page 24

25 Today s Mining Stocks and Precious Metals Market Comments Our HUI key trend-finder indicators remain on a Sell signal this weekend, as both the 30 day stochastic and the HUI Purchasing Power Indicator remain on Sells. At the bottom of the next page we see that there is a Bullish divergence between the HUI Mining stocks index and its 10 day average Advance/Decline Line Indicator, suggesting a bottom is approaching that will lead to a new rally trend. Page 25

26 Page 26

27 The HUI Demand Power / Supply Pressure Indicator remains on a Sell signal this weekend from September 18th, however there is convergence between these two measures, suggesting a new Buy signal may be approaching, to be followed by a rally trend. Not quite there yet. Page 27

28 TRADERS CORNER For Standard and Platinum Subscribers How Educational Trading is Offered We offer three Investing/Trading Services. Standard subscribers have access to two of the three. Platinum subscribers have access to all three. The first Service is our Conservative Portfolio model. This is available to all subscribers. We have six categories of investments in this model; Cash, U.S. Government Securities, Gold, Buy and Hold, Market Timing, and Speculative. The details and philosophy can be read at the Conservative Portfolio model button at the left of the home page. Our goal with this portfolio is to beat the S&P 500 while generating positive returns over the long run with low risk investments and trading strategies. In other words, we do not want to lose money in any one year, yet over a five year period, want to have returns far in excess of the S&P 500. Since its inception in 2008, we have achieved these goals. The Second Service is our Market Timing Transactions: Available to all Standard and Platinum subscribers, we conduct approximately 5 to 10 ETF or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using our Secondary Trend Indicator, and other key Indicators to generate returns of 5 to 10 percent per trade, have 70 percent or more of our trades be successful, with less than 10 percent of our portfolio at risk at any one time, and with each transaction limited to a maximum risk of 2 percent or our portfolio. These transactions are reported at the Transactions button under the Conservative Portfolio header at the left of the home page. The purpose of this segment is to be a bit more aggressive to enhance overall performance of the Conservative Portfolio with overall minimal risk. The Third Service is our Platinum Trading Service: Available only to Platinum subscribers, we conduct approximately 15 to 30 Long Options trades (Long means we play markets to rise or fall, but the maximum we can lose is the amount invested) or Leveraged ETF trades per year, using all trading indicators at our disposal. This is the speculative segment of our Conservative Portfolio, with total risk at any one time limited to 5 percent of our portfolio. We usually only have 1 to 10 trades outstanding at any time. These trades are reported at the Platinum Current Trade button at the upper left of the home page. Details and philosophy, and past performance, can be accessed at the FAQ and Archives buttons under the Platinum Header at the upper left of the home page. On a good faith basis, Trades are ed to subscribers within 15 minutes of the time we conducted the transactions. We also post details of the trades at the Conservative Transactions button or the Platinum Current Trade button within 15 minutes of when we conduct them. This is not trading advice, is educational only. Platinum Options Trading Service: Today s Trades There were 0 trades today, October 13th, There are 11 open positions as of today, October 13th, Platinum ETF Trading Service: There were 0 trades today, October 13th, There are 2 open position as of today, October 13th, Conservative Market Timing Service: There were 0 trades today, October 13th, Page 28

29 PLATINUM TRADERS CORNER For Platinum Subscribers Past Performance Summary For Closed Trades By Year From 2011 through September 30th, 2017 Avg. $ # Closed # Winning % Winning # Losing Net Total Invested Year Trades Trades Trades Trades $ Profits Per Trade % 1 $ 19,265 $ 6, % 4 $ 144,736 $ 18, % 3 $ 28,882 $ 4, % 2 $ 74,418 $ 12, % 5 $ 92,470 $ 3, % 11 $ 16,240 $1, % 11 $ 11,380 $1,788 All of the above trades and details can be reviewed at the Archived Trades button at the upper left of the home page at IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITA- BLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST Here is a Performance Summary for the first 6.75 Years of the Program, From January 1st, 2011 through September 30th, 2017: # Total Trades 230 # Winning Trades 191 # Losing Trades 39 % Winning Trades 83.0% Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,462 Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $399,809 Profits If My People who are called by My name, Humble themselves and pray, and seek My face And turn from their wicked ways, Then I will hear from heaven, will forgive their sin, And will heal their land. 2 Chronicles 7: 13,14 Page 29

30 TRADERS CORNER For Platinum Subscribers Past Performance for 2016 The Performance results for our Platinum Trading Program for the 12 Months of 2016, January 1st, 2016 through December 31st, 2016: There were 35 closed trades during the first 12 Months of Thirtyone (88 percent) were winners, four were losers, none were breakeven. The net profits accumulated on closed trades were $144,736 in 12 Months, which is 48 times greater than the list cost of a 3 Year Platinum membership in just 12 Months! The average dollars at risk per trade came to $18,990. The return on investment for the average dollars at risk on these closed trades was 662.1%. Details for all closed trades in 2016 are available for review at the Platinum Archives button at the upper left of the home page at IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST Here is a Performance Summary for the first 6.00 Years of the Program, From January 1st, 2011 through December 31st, 2016: # Total Trades 212 # Winning Trades 174 # Losing Trades 38 % Winning Trades 82.0% Avg. $ Invested Per Trade $7,575 Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $380,525 Profits (earned 63 times the $5,995 list cost of a 5 Year Term Platinum in just 6.0 years). Jesus said, "Do not let your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father's house are many dwelling places; if it were not so, I would have told you; for I go to prepare a place for you. If I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again and receive you to Myself, that where I am, there you may be also. John 14: 1-3 Page 30

31 TRADERS CORNER For Platinum Subscribers Past Performance for 2015 The Performance results for our Platinum Trading Program for the Year 2015, January 1st, 2015 through December 31st, 2015: There were 26 closed trades during the 12 Months of Twentythree (88 percent) were winners, three losers, none were breakeven. The net profits accumulated on closed trades were $28,882 in 12 months, which is 5.7 times greater than the list cost of a 10 Year term Platinum membership in just 12 months! The average dollars at risk per trade came to $4,229. The return on investment for the average dollars at risk on these closed trades was 582%. Details for all closed trades in 2015 are available for review at the Platinum Archives button at the upper left of the home page at IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT RECOMMENDATIONS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST Here is a Performance Breakdown for Trades Closed During the12 Months Ending December 31st, 2015: # Total Closed Trades 26 # Winning Trades 23 # Losing Trades 3 % Winning Trades 88% Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $28,882 Jesus said, "Do not let your heart be troubled; believe in God, believe also in Me. In My Father's house are many dwelling places; if it were not so, I would have told you; for I go to prepare a place for you. If I go and prepare a place for you, I will come again and receive you to Myself, that where I am, there you may be also. John 14: 1-3 Page 31

32 TRADERS CORNER For Platinum Subscribers Past Performance For Years 2014 and 2013 The Performance results for our Platinum Trading Program for the Year 2014, January 1st, 2014 through December 31st, 2014: There were 30 closed trades during the 12 Months of Twenty-eight (93 percent) were winners, two were losers, none were breakeven. The net profits accumulated on closed trades were $74,418, which is 37 times greater than the $1,999 list cost of a 19 Month membership. The average dollars at risk per trade came to $12,052. The return on investment for the average dollars at risk on these closed trades 517 %. Details for all closed trades in 2014 are available for review at the Platinum Archives button at the upper left of the home page at IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT RECOMMENDA- TIONS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFOR- MANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST Here is a Performance Breakdown for Trades Closed During the12 Months Ending December 31st, 2014: # Total Closed Trades 30 # Winning Trades 28 # Losing Trades 2 % Winning Trades 93% Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $74,418 The Performance results for our Platinum Trading Program for the Year 2013, January 1st, 2013 through December 31st, 2013: There were 45 closed trades during the 12 Months of Thirty-nine (86 percent) were winners, five were losers, one was breakeven. The net gains accumulated on closed trades are $92,470. This was 25.2 times greater than the average dollars at risk per closed trade. The average dollars at risk per trade came to $3,481. The annualized return on investment for these closed trades was 2,656 %. Details for all closed trades in 2013 are available for review at the Platinum Archives button at the upper left of the home page at IT SHOULD NOT BE ASSUMED THAT RECOMMENDA- TIONS MADE IN THE FUTURE WILL BE PROFITABLE OR WILL EQUAL THE PERFOR- MANCE OF THE SECURITIES IN THIS LIST Here is a Performance Breakdown for Trades Closed During the12 Months Ending December 31st, 2013: # Total Closed Trades 45 # Winning Trades 39 # Losing Trades 5 % Winning Trades 86% Net $ Profits (Loss) Realized $92,470 Page 32

33 The Jaws of Death Multi-decade topping pattern warns that An Economic Depression is Approaching. (E) of V of (V) of {III} (A) (B) (C) (D) Our Top Big Picture Scenario Giant Megaphone for Supercycle Degree wave (V) up of Grand Supercycle Degree Wave {III} Up Has Ended. The wave (E ) portion, the final rally leg, of a Megaphone or Broadening Top pattern, a.k.a. a Jaws of Death pattern, usually extends, tracking along the upward sloping upper boundary. This is normal. Because the above pattern is a three decade pattern, an extension of a few years would not be out of proportion for this wave (E ). The Monthly Full Stochastics are overbought, supportive of a conclusion to this pattern any time it chooses to finish. The past two major tops for this pattern, wave (A) and wave (C ) also occurred when the monthly Full Stochastics were overbought. An overbought level does not mean an important top is in, however an important top is not going to happen unless the FS is overbought. What this pattern is warning is that a massive Bear market in stocks is in our future, and given how mature wave (E ) appears to be, and how the monthly FS is overbought, we need to be ready for a conclusion to this pattern and a powerful downside resolution at any time. Page 33

34 October 2007 Top that started the Great Recession The Industrials rallied sharply from August 16th, 2007 lows through a top on October 11th, 2007, which was followed by an initial strong decline that kicked off the Great Recession of 2007 through Is an October 2017 Top Forming that will start another Great Recession? Is History Repeating Itself Here in October 2017? Check out this Analog The Industrials have rallied sharply from August 21st, 2017 lows. Is another major top occurring this October 2017, which will be followed by an initial strong decline that kicks off the next Great Recession / Depression? Page 34

35 c, e, 5, C, (E) a b 4 c, a a a b b c, b c, c d U.S. Election Day Note: This Pattern is very close to completion, meaning a significant stock market decline is fast approaching. The Rising Bearish Wedge since August 2015 is finishing a multi-decade Jaws of Death pattern, and a multi-century Bull market. This five wave Rising Bearish Wedge (a-up, b-down, c-up, d-down, e-up) has likely finished the first four of the five subwaves. If so, wave e-up is underway, and in fact, the final subwave c-up of e-up is underway, and in fact finishing its final subwave {5} up. Page 35

36 {5} c, e, 5, C, (E) {1} {3} Alt {4} {4} The End of the Bull Market Will Be Here. A Decline Below 21,800 signals the End. {c} b {2} The Rising Bearish Wedge since August 2015 is finishing a multidecade Jaws of Death pattern, and a multi-century Bull market. This five wave Rising Bearish Wedge (a-up, b-down, c-up, d-down, e-up) has likely finished the first four of the five subwaves. If so, wave e-up is underway, and in fact, the final subwave c-up of e-up is underway, and in fact finishing its final subwave {5} up, possibly headed for a top near 23,000. Page 36

37 Alt {5} {5} c, e, 5, C, (E) a {b} {1} {3} {4} {a} {c} b {2} The final rally leg of the large degree rising Bearish Wedge from January 2016 is underway, wave c-up of e-up. This final rally leg started at the August 2017 lows, and is tracking a Rising Trend-channel for c-up. Within that pattern, the S&P 500 may be about to start the final wave {5} up to complete everything. Once finished, a Bear market will begin in stocks. A break below 2520 would raise the odds that a major top is in. Page 37

38 The S&P 500 may be forming an Ending Diagonal (Rising Bearish Wedge) to complete its top and conclude the Bull market. It is not the clearest pattern I have ever seen, but the price action from the S&P 500 in October with multiple overlapping waves does resemble an Ending Diagonal, a.k.a. Rising Bearish Wedge pattern, which is a topping formation, a typical pattern seen at concluding Bull market upside trends. If so, this pattern being almost complete, warns a major top is very close at hand. Page 38

39 e, E, C up of (B) c, c d The NASDAQ 100 is finishing a Rising Bearish Wedge from April 2017, and is in the final lap higher to complete the pattern. Once this pattern is finished, a powerful decline will begin. The top could arrive around the 6,100-6,200ish area. Page 39

40 NDX c, c e, E, C up of (B) a a d A downside break below the bottom boundary of this Rising Bearish Wedge would be very Bearish for the technology sector. D b b U.S. Election Day The above wave mapping puts the NASDAQ 100 s price pattern in line with the Industrials and S&P 500 new top scenario. A large Rising Bearish Wedge has formed from August 2015, and may be complete. A decisive drop below the bottom boundary of this pattern would be very Bearish for tech stocks. Dangerous Warning: It appears that the NASDAQ 100 stopped its recent decline at the rising lower boundary line, around 5,600ish, the bottom of wave d-down, and has since bounced in three subwaves, wave e-up to finish the pattern. If so, the NASDAQ 100 could top around 6,200ish and that is the end of the Bull market. We are very close to that place. This is very Bearish news for techs and our economy. Page 40

41 (C) E, (5) {III} (C) (A) (X) B (B) (C), C (A) (A) (B) (B) (A) (C), D (B) Weekly Full Stochastic are On a Buy Signal, Topping. This Jaws of Death Megaphone topping pattern for the Russell 2000 is Nearly complete. E (C) E, (5) {III} A C The Russell 2000 is finishing the final wave E-up of a large Megaphone Jaws of Death pattern. B Left Shoulder Right Shoulder D Head Page 41

42 Trannies have finished a Jaws of Death Megapattern. See Green Boundary Lines C (E) V, (V) {III} {V} (A) (C) A (B ) B (B) (D) (A ) (C) {IV} 3 5, C, (E) V, (V) {III} A B Page 42

43 iii Alt. v v, 5, C, (E) V, (V) {III} i iv ii 4 The Dow Transportation Average is inside the final fifth wave of a five wave rally trend since early This is the end of a very large rising trend, and will lead to a strong decline. Page 43

44 U.S. Dollar is close to starting a multimonth rally toward 103ish. 3 b a c d 3 e Daily Full Stochastics On a Buy, Topping. We are waiting for a rise above 94 to declare the next Bull market in the U.S. Dollar has started. The U.S. Dollar has declined in a Bullish Wedge pattern from its high in late This five wave declining pattern has three subwaves for each of the five waves. It looks as if the Dollar wants to drop toward 90 before bottoming and starting a strong rally. But once it bottoms, it could rally very sharply. This could happen as a result of a geopolitical event that terrifies investors into seeking the safehaven of U.S. Dollar denominated assets. A decisive rise above 94, would be very Bullish for the U.S. Dollar. Page 44

45 b a d c e Daily Full Stochastics on a Sell Signal. The Euro is completing the pennant portion of a huge Bullish Flag pattern, meaning it should start rising for several years after one more decline. This likely means the U.S. Dollar could start a significant decline after it finishes its next rally leg. Page 45

46 There is an Inverse Bullish Head & Shoulders Bottom in Oil, with an upside price target of 62ish. Left Shoulder Right Shoulder Head Monthly WTIC Oil E, (1) c, C b A b a a c, D a c, B b Oil Weekly Full Stochastics On a Buy. Page 46

47 Left Shoulder Head Right Shoulder There is an Inverse Bullish Head & Shoulders Bottom in the Commodities Index, with an upside price target of 195ish. War would send commodity prices higher. The Commodities Index has completed a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders bottom pattern, suggesting commodity prices are about to move sharply higher. What could cause this to occur? War is one good possibility. Page 47

48 (3 ) III b 2 3 HUI Mining Stocks have broken decisively above the Declining Wedge, signaling a new long-term Bull Market a b c d 1 a b c, 2 e, 5, c, (2) Daily Full Stochastics On a Sell. a c, b i of 3 b a c, 2 Page 48

49 Left Shoulder Right Shoulder If Mining Stocks can rise to 290, then they will have completed an inverse Bullish Head & Shoulders Bottom, with an upside price target near 500ish. Head While not a guarantee at this time, and make no mistake this pattern is not complete, however should the HUI Mining Stocks Index rise to 290, then it would have completed a Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Bottom, with an upside price target of 500ish. Page 49

50 1 a c e, B b a c, X b a c, B c, A b d a d d e, C b a c, A b C, (2) 1 c, X c, B a b a b a b c, A e, C e, C, (2) Page 50

51 v, 5, 5, (1) b 1 a B X B c, A C A C, (2) c, X 1 a b a c, B Flat a b c, A b e, C C, (2) Page 51

52 3 5, v, iv 2 b a c, 2 U.S. Bonds are oversold short-term and due for a rally. Bonds are working through a corrective wave 2-down move, an a-down, b-up, c-down move that have finished. Page 52