PROFESSIONALS ONLY. Quarterly Meeting Q2 2016

Transcription

1 1 PROFESSIONALS ONLY Quarterly Meeting Q2 2016

2 Didier Saint-Georges Managing Director and Member of the Investment Committee 2

3 Performance of our range since 31 March Global Europe Emergents EQUITY range C. Investissement +6.57% C. Portfolio Grande Europe -2.74% C. Euro-Entrepreneurs -5.60% C. Emergents +2.87% C. Portfolio Emerging Discovery +4.63% PATRIMOINE range C. Patrimoine +4.63% C. Investissement Latitude +6.08% C. Euro-Patrimoine +1.75% C. Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine +7.84% FIXED INCOME range C. Portfolio Global Bond +5.90% C. Portfolio Capital Plus +0.27% C. Portfolio Capital Cube +2.40% C. Sécurité +0.67% Theme C. Portfolio Commodities +8.82% 3 Source: Carmignac, 08/07/2016. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor). A green icon represents positive Fund performance relative to the benchmark, while an amber icon represents negative Fund performance relative to the benchmark.

4 Weathering crises makes a very big difference in the long term 700 S&P 500: performance over past 20 years vs. performance excluding five worst months S&P 500 performance excl. five worst months S&P 500 performance Source: Bloomberg, 30/04/2016

5 No boldness, no performance Carmignac Patrimoine: performance since inception Carmignac Patrimoine A EUR acc +735% Reference indicator* +360% * 50% MSCI ACWI (EUR) (net dividends reinvested) + 50% Citigroup WGBI All Maturities (EUR). Rebalanced each quarter. Source: Carmignac, 08/07/2016. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Performance is 5 shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor).

6 A cohesive team approach CROSS-ASSET MULTI-STRATEGY F. LEROUX Team leader EUROPEAN EQUITIES NEW M. DENHAM Team leader NATURAL RESOURCES M. HULME Team leader EMERGING EQUITIES + CIO Edouard CARMIGNAC INTERNATIONAL EQUITIES David OLDER BONDS R. OUAHBA Team leader SECTOR ANALYSTS X. HOVASSE Team leader PORTFOLIO ADVISORS D. SAINT-GEORGES Team leader 6

7 BUT THE CONSENSUS SAID WE WERE SUPPOSED TO WIN! 7

8 Frédéric Leroux Global Manager Head of the Cross Asset team 8

9 Unlimited monetary support in the face of growing risk 9

10 United States 10

11 United States: investment likely to lose the support of residential investment 20% 10% Contribution to investment, annual change Residential investment 0% -10% Investment Non-residential investment -20% -30% 11 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/03/2016

12 United States: leading indicator of residential investment is weakening dangerously Residential investment, annual change 40% 20% 0% Non-residential investment Building permits -20% -40% -60% Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/

13 United States: drivers of productive investment remain weak 15% Capacity utilisation and investment, annual change $bn Durable goods orders excluding transport 10% Investment 165 5% 155 0% 145-5% -10% Capacity utilisation % % Sources: LHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/03/2016 RHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

14 United States: in an environment of lower property prices growth, savings rate could rise 15% Real property prices, annual change 12% Savings rate as a % of disposable income 10% 11% 10% 5% 9% 0% 8% 7% -5% 6% -10% 5% -15% 4% 3% -20% 2% 14 Sources: LHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 30/06/2015 RHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

15 United States: Walmart syndrome Growth in hourly pay tends to come at the expense of hours worked 2.5% Average hourly pay, private sector 6% 5% Wages and working hours, annual change Average weekly wage 2.3% 4% 3% 2.1% 2% 1.9% 1% Weekly hours worked 1.7% 0% -1% 1.5% -2% 15 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, May 2016

16 United States: consumption is supporting lacklustre growth United United States: States: GDP GDP growth, annual and consumption change 4% 3% Consumer spending 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% GDP growth -4% -5% Source: Bloomberg, 14/06/

17 United States: consumption is supporting lacklustre growth 9% United States: GDP growth, annual change 7% 5% 3% 1% -1% Average 2.2% -3% -5% Introduction of QE in the United States Source: Bloomberg, 14/06/

18 United States: cost-driven inflationary pressures are destroying purchasing power and contributing to a future slowdown Rents, change 60% Petrol prices, change 4% 40% 3% 2% 20% 0% 1% -20% 0% -40% -1% -60% Projections* 18 *Assuming constant petrol prices Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

19 European Union 19

20 United Kingdom: consumption the main component of growth could be adversely affected by a confidence shock Savings rate stands at a historically low level 4% Contribution to GDP, annual change 17% 15% Savings rate, annual change 2% 13% 0% -2% 11% 9% 7% -4% 5% Consumer spending Investment Government Stocks Export/import Errors and omissions Real GDP 20 3% Sources: LHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/03/2016 RHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/12/2015

21 United Kingdom: «Too big to leave»? 6% 4% Contribution to current account balance as % of GDP Services 80% Contribution of exports to global GDP 2% 0% -2% Current transfers Revenue 70% -4% -6% -8% Introduction of the euro Current account balance Goods 60% Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/01/

22 Eurozone: retail sales have mainly benefited from lower prices 10% Retail sales, annual change 5% 0% -5% Effects of disinflation Retail sales, actual Retail sales, nominal -10% -15% Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/

23 France continues to play catch-up after the heavy handed fiscal constraint of % Contribution to GDP, annual change 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Consumer spending Real GDP Investment Government 23 Stock Export/import Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/03/2016

24 Eurozone: Brexit gives ECB intervention a boost ECB: total assets in bn 0.7% Germany: 10-year yields % 0.5% % 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% % 24 Sources: LHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 05/07/2016 RHS: Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

25 Emerging countries 25

26 China: government attempting to offset weaker private investment Breakdown of investment, annual change 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Total investment Public Private 26 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

27 China: controlling capital outflows allows authorities to carry out a controlled devaluation of the yuan Devaluation no longer destroying liquidity China: capital outflows /14 06/14 11/14 04/15 09/15 02/16 Currency reserves, $bn Renminbi vs. basket of currencies /14 06/14 11/14 04/15 09/15 02/ /14 08/14 03/15 10/15 05/16 27 Sources: LHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016 RHS: Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

28 China: industrial activity at low levels in spite of active support by authorities 25% Industrial production, annual change 20% 15% 10% 5% Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/

29 India: the star pupil kicked out of the class? Authorities favouring immediate growth in preference to better quality growth medium term. Towards more plentiful liquidity? 16% 14% 12% India: Inflation 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Central bank base rate Inflation (CPI) Inflation target 0% 01/99 01/01 01/03 01/05 01/07 01/09 01/11 01/13 01/15 01/17 29 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

30 Brazil: rally in commodities make up for political uncertainty and improve liquidity Current account balance, annual change Brazil: inflation 2% 0% 30% 25% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Central bank base rate Inflation (CPI) Inflation target 30 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

31 General macroeconomic conclusions The macroeconomic backdrop remains fragile. However, the deterioration in fundamentals is only materialising slowly, countered by central bank activism and higher liquidity. In the developed world, political uncertainty could lead to macroeconomic weakness in the short term. Authorities must respond on both the monetary and the budgetary fronts. In the emerging universe, dollar stability and the deferral of US rate hikes are support factors that allow China to resist a slowdown Paradoxically, uncertainty that is worrying for the macroeconomy could act as a support for markets. 31

32 Investment conclusions Equities: Brexit-related uncertainty changes the game and favours high-visibility companies and commodities Currencies: forex market offers only sporadic opportunities. Sterling is structurally weakened and the yen could benefit from upcoming episodes of stress. Yields: the move into negative real yields in the United States should support equities and create new opportunities in bond markets, particularly in products that leverage inflation 32

33 Rose Ouahba Head of Fixed Income Team 33

34 Carmignac Patrimoine: Performances and Contributions At 30/06/2016 Fund performance Reference indicator* Portfolio performance Impact of currency and equity derivatives Q % +4.83% +4.19% -1.08% Year-to-date +0.84% +3.59% +0.49% +0.35% * 50% MSCI AC WORLD NR (EUR) + 50% Citigroup WGBI All Maturities (EUR) 34 Past performance may not be a reliable guide to future performance. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor). Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016

35 Carmignac Patrimoine: Q performance allocation Net performance in Q (bp) Equities 227 Equity index derivatives -103 Bonds 192 Sovereign debt 97 Developed countries 36 Periphery 13 Emerging countries 48 Credit 95 Physical securities 92 Protection via CDS 3 Currency derivatives -5 Net performance Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 Past performance is not an indication of future results. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor).

36 Brexit: how we managed the political milestone Polls on the UK referendum Performance drivers Risk management Bremain Equity portfolio Reduced exposure Brexit Peripheral government bonds USD Yen ICM (10/01) ORB (21/01) ICM (31/01) TNS (15/02) YouGov (23/02) YouGov (01/03) Populus (10/03) ORB (28/03) Survation (19/03) ICM (04/04) YouGov (12/04) ComRes (19/04) YouGov (29/04) ORB (12/05) Opinuim (19/05) ORB (29/05) INS (06/06) Credit (banks, commodities) Emerging debt US government bonds Protection against credit risk 36 Source: Business Insider UK, 07/06/2016.

37 Contagion in Europe? Spanish risk avoided Credit margins on Italian and Spanish sovereign debt 1.8% Podemos fails to meet its objectives in Spain 1.6% Spain Parliamentary elections held on 26 June 1.4% Disappointing outcome for Unidos Podemos far-left alliance Credit margins eased sharply 1.2% Italy 1.0% 0.8% Source: Bloomberg, 05/07/

38 Contagion in Europe? No systemic risk 85 billion-worth of bonds bought in June: Sovereign debt: 72 billion Covered bonds: 6 billion ABS: 0.5 billion Corporate bonds: 6.4 billion We monitor all financial, legal and political developments so that we can prepare for, assess and manage risk. Mario Draghi 21 June Source: UniCredit Research, 04/07/2016

39 Risk of a US rate hike? Market looks to us to be overly confident 3.5 Fed funds futures 60% Carmignac Patrimoine s dollar exposure a risk management tool 3.0 Fed July median 50% Markets January Markets April Markets July 40% 30% 20% First rate hike 10% 0% 39 Source: Bloomberg, 01/07/2016

40 Might the US inflation premium be revalued? 3% US inflation Inflation breakeven Carmignac Patrimoine investment strategy: 2% 1% US inflation ex-energy/food 1. Allocation in US inflationlinked government bonds 2. Strategy benefiting from an increase in US inflation breakeven 0% 40 Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 01/07/2016

41 Carmignac Patrimoine: post-brexit risk management Performance drivers Risk management Equity portfolio Tactical exposure management USD Yen Peripheral government bonds Credit (banks, commodities) Emerging debt US government bonds US inflation-linked government bonds US inflation breakeven Protection against credit risk 41

42 Credit: Italian banks 20%: recovery rate anticipated by markets 360 BILLION EUROS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS billion IN ACTUAL DEFAULT 80bn not provisioned 40bn BILLION EUROS OF LOSSES TO BE MADE UP Bail- IN Bail- OUT Creditors and depositors forced to contribute 6% of households affected POLITICAL RISK FOR MATTEO RENZI USE OF PUBLIC FUNDS in violation of Resolution Directives EUROPEAN OPPOSITION 42 Source: Bank of Italy, 2016

43 Credit: the importance of rigorous selection in the face of fears over the Italian banking sector 350% Total non-performing loans to CET1 capital (core equity) 14 UniCredit yield (as %) % 293% % 219% % % 164% 151% 139% 138% 6 100% 90% 85% 70% 4 50% % 0-2 Senior Subordinated CoCos 43 Sources: LHS: Company Data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, 31/03/2016 RHS: Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

44 Credit: our credit market investment themes have worked well Our main themes 103 Fedex 11/01/2023 (senior unsecured) Commodities sector European CLOs Investment grade eurozone bonds Entry point Credit spreads between AAA-rated CLOs and itraxx Main index (bps) Euro AAA CLO Anadarko 15/03/2026 (senior unsecured) 50 0 CDS index - itraxx Main Entry point 44 Sources: LHS: Bloomberg, McGraw Hill Financial, 27/06/2016 RHS: Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

45 Rates: towards a probable change in eligibility rules German yield curve Almost 50% of German debt no longer eligible for ECB purchases Yield (as %) Solution following changes to eligibility rules: Allocation basis -0.4 Floor on deposit rate (-0.40%) Limit of 33% of each issuer s debt Not eligible for ECB purchases 1M 6M 2yr 4yr 6yr 8yr 10yr 15yr 20yr 25yr 30yr 45 Source: Bloomberg, 04/07/2016

46 Rates: strengthening of peripheral government bonds 1.8% Modified duration contribution of peripheral bonds Carmignac Patrimoine Spanish 10 yr bonds Instability linked to Brexit referendum % 1.4% Italian 10 yr bonds % Modified duration in peripheral bonds 1.0% 0.8 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/

47 Emerging debt: Polish government bonds offer 3% yield 1-year sovereign bonds, CPI deflated 5% 4% BRL IDR One of the highest real yields in the emerging universe Negative inflation, well below the eurozone average 3% 2% PLN RUB MXN TRY ZAR Sharp improvement in current account balance Public-debt-to-GDP ratio lower than emerging country standards 1% INR HUF ILS AUD CNH KRW 0% -1% JPY GBP USD CHF EUR CLP TWD COP -2% 47 Source: Bloomberg, 30/06/2016

48 Emerging debt: Argentina returns to favour (as %) 7 Argentinian yield curve in dollars A strong desire to reform the country 6 Signature of a legal agreement putting an end to the dispute over debt restructuring 5 4 $16.5 billion raised biggest sovereign issue by an emerging country since Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 12Y Attractive Argentinian short maturities 48 Source: Bloomberg, 30/06/2016

49 Carmignac Patrimoine Portfolio Construction Tactical management INTEREST RATE 46% EQUITIES Modified duration CREDIT 27% Total Germany United States EQUITIES PERIPH. SOVEREIGN DEBT 10% Equity exposure 45% 0% 50% 2% CASH SAFE HAVEN SOVEREIGN DEBT 9% USD CURRENCIES 56% 0% 100% EMERGING DEBT 6% EUR 42% 0% 100% Source: Carmignac, 08/07/

50 David Park Fund Manager, Emerging Markets 50

51 Quarterly Performance and Contributions Q Fund performance Reference indicator performance Portfolio performance Impact of currency and equity derivatives Carmignac Emergents +2.38% +3.25% % -0.62% Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine +4.25% +2.73% % -0.67% +6.91% +4.43% % +0.40% 1. MSCI Emerging Markets NR (EUR, net dividends reinvested) 2. 50% MSCI EM SmallCap (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM MidCap (EUR, net dividends reinvested) 3. 50% MSCI EM (EUR, net dividends reinvested) + 50% JP Morgan GBI-EM (EUR) 51 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Management fees are included in performance. Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016

52 Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine: Performance Attribution Net performance Q Equity +1.16% Equity Futures -0.04% Bonds +5.37% Government bonds +3.60% Emerging +3.32% Developed +0.28% Corporate bonds +1.77% Currency derivatives +0.42% Net Performance +6.91% 52 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Management fees are included in performance

53 Emerging markets Valuations Seem Once Again Attractive Price to Book Value ratio MSCI Emerging Markets P/E ratio MSCI Emerging Markets 53 Source: Carmignac, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research,Citi Research, June 2016

54 Consensus Earnings Estimates are Stabilizing 20% MSCI Emerging Markets earnings estimates (%) % 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% 54 Source: Carmignac, BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research, MSCI, Factset, 25/01/2016

55 Emerging Market Currencies Undervalued Laurent CHEBANIER Country Risk Analyst Average performance of EM currencies (trade weighted, real exchange rates) Source: Carmignac, CEIC, June

56 Emerging Markets at a Turning Point Out/underperformance of emerging markets (x)* ? *MSCI Emerging Markets vs. MSCI World Source: Bloomberg, 06/07/2016

57 China: Decreasing Government Flexibility 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Policy rate Inflation target Inflation yoy 0% -2% -4% 57 Source: Carmignac, CEIC, June 2016

58 Our Strategy in China Renminbi versus basket of currencies Average Chinese Exposure in Q % % 25% Entry in Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine 20% 15% 17% 95 10% % 89 0% Carmignac Emergents China weight MSCI Emerging Markets China weight 58 Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 30/06/2016

59 Carmignac s Emerging Fund Range EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY FUNDS EMERGING MARKETS DIVERSIFIED FUND Assets under Management: 1,224 million Emerging markets small and midcap and frontier markets equity fund Assets under Management: 678 million Assets under Management: 306 million 59 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016

60 Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery : Beyond the Traditional Emerging Markets Geographic exposure of Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery (%, rebased) 1.7 RUSSIA TURKEY CHINA 11.3 SOUTH KOREA MEXICO 8.3 COLOMBIA 6.0 PERU 1.7 NIGERIA BRAZIL UNITED ARAB EMIRATES KENYA INDIA 12.2 TAIWAN PHILIPPINES SRI VIETNAM 1.4 LANKA INDONESIA CHILE ARGENTINA TRADITIONAL MARKETS FRONTIER 65% MARKETS 35% 60 Source : Carmignac, 30/06/2016

61 Philippines 61

62 Philippines: Sustained Macro Quality Fundamentals Contribution to GDP growth (% yoy, 3qma) Current Account (% GDP) 12% 5.5% 9% 5.0% 6% 4.5% 3% 4.0% 3.5% 0% 3.0% -3% 2.5% -6% Consumption Investment 2.0% -9% Net exports Overall GDP 1.5% 62 Source: Carmignac, LHS: EM Advisors Group, June 2016 RHS: Bloomberg 31/12/2016

63 Low Gearing in the Philippines 100% 90% 80% 70% Private credit to GDP* EM average % of GDP 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Philippines 63 * 3 month moving average Source: Carmignac, EM Advisors Group July 2016

64 Philippines: Investment to Accelerate? Mln tonnes Philippines cement demand YoY Growth 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% Cement demand (Volume, lhs) Cement demand (growth, rhs) 64 Source: Cement Manufacturers Association of the Philippines(CEMAP), Company data, 2016

65 Implementation to the Portfolio Cement penetration (Kg of cement per capita per year) Michael HULME Head of Commodities Fund Manager Simon LOVAT Analyst Commodities Philippines China South Korea Malaysia Egypt Thailand Itlay Vietnam Russia Laos Brazil Mexico USA Indonesia Colombia Philippines India Nigeria 65 Source: Carmignac, Industry, IMF, Morgan Stanley, 2014

66 Argentina 66

67 Argentina: Structural Potential 80% Debt as % of GDP 76% 70% 60% % GDP 50% 40% 48% 37% 30% 30% 20% 10% 11% 6% 0% Public debt Corporate debt Household debt EM average Argentina 67 Source: Carmignac, EM Advisors Group, Bloomberg, July 2016

68 Argentina: Macro Quality Turning Around % GDP, 12m 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Argentina current account balance % GDP (sa 3mma) 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% -2% -4% Argentina trade balance 0% -2% 68 Source: EM Advisors Group July 2016

69 Argentina: Offering Attractive Carry 8.0% Argentinian Rates Maturitu 2017 Charles ZERAH Fund Manager Fixed Income Willingness to implement necessary reforms Joseph MOUAWAD EM Fixed Income & Currencies Analyst 7.0% Entry point Signature of a legal agreement ending the battle with vulture funds 6.0% 5.0% Argentina s Return to Markets Long awaited return of Argentina to international bond markets: largest bond issuance ($16.5 bn) by an EM country since % 3.0% Attractive short-term rates 69 Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

70 Grupo Supervielle: Potential Structural Credit Growth Matthew WILLIAMS Analyst Financial Sector 200% Bank loans/ GDP 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% China S. Korea Taiwan Malaysia Thailand Chile Brazil South Africa Russia Poland Czech Rep India Colombia Hungary Peru Philippines Indonesia Mexico Argentina 70 Source: Carmignac, EM Advisors Group, International Monetary Fund, 30/10/2015

71 India 71

72 India: Underpenetration Opportunities Tim JAKSLAND Analyst Innovation Sector Total Healthcare Expenditure as % GDP Dr Lal Pathlabs - Stock price (INR) 18% % 14% 12% % 800 8% 750 6% 4% 2% 0% IPO and entry in Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery US Brazil UK Vietnam China Thailand India Malaysia Indonesia 72 Source: LHS: Company data, IMF, 2014 RHS: Bloomberg, 08/07/2016

73 What We Look For MACRO + UNDERPENETRATION + STRONG FCF COUNTRIES SECTORS STOCKS The Fund looks for strong macro fundamentals (growth outlook, balance of payments, currency, inflation) Underpenetrated sectors with long term growth Companies with a strong FCF profile i.e capital light business that can self finance their growth 73

74 High Quality Financial Ratios, Consequence of our Stock-picking 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% EPS Growth (2017) Return On Equity (2016)* FCF Yield (%) (2017)* Net debt / Market Cap** Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery MSCI EM Small and Mid Cap Index 74 * Consensus estimates ** 2016 Net debt. Net debt excluding financials Source: Carmignac, Datastream, Bloomberg, 15/06/2016

75 Conclusion: A Rigorous Approach that Works Over the Long Term 5-year volatility of Carmignac P. Emerging Discovery Quartile in its Morningstar category Low volatility 1 st quartile MSCI EM Carmignac P. Emerging Discovery Morningstar category 1 st Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery is 1 st decile for its volatility over 5 years th quartile High volatility 75 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016; Base 100: 31/12/2009; Morningstar Direct Morningstar, Inc - All rights reserved. Monthly returns in Euro, net of fees, as of 30/04/2016. Category composed of all shares of all funds in the Global Emerging Markets Small and Mid-cap Equities Morningstar Category. Share class used for Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery: LU Management fees are included in performance. *50% MSCI EM SmallCap (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM MidCap (EUR), (Reinvested net dividends, rebalanced quarterly) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

76 Conclusion: A Rigorous Approach that Works Over the Long Term Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery A EUR Acc +47.6% Reference Indicator* +25.0% Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016; Base 100: 31/12/2009; Morningstar Direct Morningstar, Inc - All rights reserved. Monthly returns in Euro, net of fees, as of 30/04/2016. Category composed of all shares of all funds in the Global Emerging Markets Small and Mid-cap Equities Morningstar Category. Share class used for Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Discovery: LU Management fees are included in performance. *50% MSCI EM SmallCap (EUR) + 50% MSCI EM MidCap (EUR), (Reinvested net dividends, rebalanced quarterly) Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance

77 Edouard Carmignac 77

78 Carmignac Investissement Fund performance* Reference indicator 1 Portfolio performance Impact of derivatives 2 Q % 3.59% % -1.16% 2016 YTD -2.03% -1.02% % 1.67% 1. MSCI AC World NR (EUR) 2. Forward exchange transactions, interest rate and equity derivatives *A EUR Acc units 78 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 Past performance is not an indication of future results. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor)

79 Carmignac Investissement: Q performance allocation Q2 2016: Net contribution to performance (%) Carmignac Investissement Reference indicator* Equities Materials Information Technology Energy Healthcare Finance Consumer Other** Gold stocks Energy stocks Millennials theme (Amazon, LinkedIn) Reduced exposure to equities Equity and fixed income derivatives Currency derivatives Net performance Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 *MSCI AC World NR (EUR) **Other: telecoms, industrials and utilities Past performance is not an indication of future results. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor)

80 Brexit was a stress test for Carmignac Investissement Brexit Day (24/06/2016): market performance and net exposure of Carmignac Investissement Performance on 24 June C. Investissement: -1.72% Benchmark*: -2.75% Gold mines JPY/USD USD/EUR CNY/USD Healthcare Industry GBP/EUR Euro Stoxx FTSE % % 20.7% 11.9% European banks 0% 6.0% 7.2% 4.1% 2.4% -0.6% -3.3% -0.2% -5.1% -6.7% 0.0% -10.0% -10.1% 3.1% 0.0% -22% -18% Market performance in USD Exposure of Carmignac Investissement 80 Source: Carmignac, Bloomberg, 24/06/2016 *MSCI AC World NR (EUR) Past performance is not an indication of future results. Performance is shown net of fees (excluding any entry charges payable to the distributor)

81 Equity market fundamentals remain fragile MSCI World index and corporate earnings per share United States: margins MSCI World index (LHS) S&P ex-energy Level of index Earnings per share (RHS) Expected EPS Margins excluding financials* S&P margins 81 *Datastream, non-financial companies Source: Minack Advisors, Global Outlook, Near The Point of No Return, June 2016

82 Market valuations remain high Expected price-to-earnings ratios S&P 500 MSCI Developed Markets ex-us Expected MSCI EM Whatever it takes ECB QE 82 Source: Minack Advisors, Global Outlook, 05/06/2016

83 Central Bank Support and Recent Decline in Real Rates are Support Factors for Equities $bn Sum of Fed, ECB and BoJ balance sheets 4% US: 10-year real yields % % % 0% % % Inflation (CPI) 10-year government bonds, real 10-year government bonds Inflation (CPI), projection 10-year, real, projection 83 Sources: LHS: Bloomberg, 30/06/2016 RHS: Carmignac, CEIC, 31/05/2016

84 Carmignac Investissement: a conviction-based portfolio combined with risk management PERFORMANCE DRIVERS RISK MANAGEMENT High-visibility stocks Stock-picking in energy Selective exposure to European market ACTIVE MANAGEMENT OF EQUITY EXPOSURE Gold stocks Currency exposure Targeted hedging strategies (via CFDs*) 84 *Contracts For Difference

85 Gold stocks: re-rating has begun RISK MANAGEMENT % USD/oz t Fed funds real yields (LHS) Environment of negative real yields Upturn in US inflation Reflationary policies ahead Safe haven asset in an uncertain environment Gold price (RHS) 85 Note: Fed funds real yields are deflated to take into account the CPI. Source: Bloomberg, CEIC Data, CLSA, June 2016

86 Low growth environment is conducive to innovative companies PERFORMANCE DRIVERS Mobility Connectivity OPPORTUNITIES LINKED TO INNOVATION IN PAYMENT SYSTEMS: CREATION OF BANDWIDTH NECESSARY FOR INNOVATION- DRIVEN GROWTH: SEIZE GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES LINKED TO INNOVATION CLOUD: BIG DATA: 86 Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 The analysis of the financial instrument(s) presented has not been prepared in accordance with regulatory provisions aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses. The Management Company is not subject to the ban on trading in the instrument in question before issuing any communications. This opinion is given for illustrative purposes to highlight certain stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. It is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments. The portfolios of Carmignac funds are subject to change at any time.

87 Target those companies able to generate long-term performance Winner takes all model in tech PERFORMANCE DRIVERS ($bn) United States: online advertising revenue 80% 60% Google & Facebook: share of US advertising market 54% 67% 30 40% % Excluding mobile Mobile 87 0% Digital Mobile Sources: LHS: Bloomberg, 22/04/2016 RHS: Investors, 26/04/2016 The analysis of the financial instrument(s) presented has not been prepared in accordance with regulatory provisions aimed at promoting the independence of financial analyses. The Management Company is not subject to the ban on trading in the instrument in question before issuing any communications. This opinion is given for illustrative purposes to highlight certain stocks that are or have been included in the portfolios of funds in the Carmignac range. It is not intended to promote direct investment in those instruments. The portfolios of Carmignac funds are subject to change at any time.

88 Carmignac Investissement: Thematic Breakdown Negative real rates favour the valuation of future earnings and support commodities NATURAL RESOURCES MILLENNIALS LONGEVITY 27.1% 29.6% (1) 20.5% 19.6% 13.2% (1) 20.7% (1) ALPHA GENERATED FROM OUR STRUCTURAL THEMES 18.8% 19.4% (1) 12.7% 14.2% (1) 0.9% 0.1% (1) TECHNOLOGY OTHER EMERGING MARKET GROWTH 88 Cash: 0.40% vs 2.84% (1) Source: Carmignac, 30/06/2016 (1) Data at 31/03/2016

89 Disclaimer This document is intended for professional clients. This document may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without prior authorisation from the management company.this material was prepared by Carmignac Gestion and/or Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg and is being distributed in the UK by Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg UK Branch (Registered in England and Wales with number FC031103, CSSF agreement of 10/06/2013). It does not constitute a subscription offer, nor does it constitute investment advice. The information contained in this document may be partial information, and may be modified without prior notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Performances are net of fees (excluding applicable entrance fees due to the distributor) Access to the Funds may be subject to restrictions with regard to certain persons or countries. The Funds may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, for the benefit or on behalf of a "U.S. person", according to the definition of the US Regulation S and/or FATCA. The Funds present a risk of loss of capital. The risks, fees and ongoing charges are described in the KIIDs (Key Investor Information Document). The Funds' respective prospectuses, KIIDs, NAV and annual reports are available in English at or upon request to the Management Company. The KIIDs must be made available to the subscriber prior to subscription. The investor should read the KIID for further information. The analysis of financial instruments in this presentation, was not prepared in accordance with applicable regulatory provisions regarding the independence of financial analysts. The Management Company is not subject to the prohibition of entering into transactions in connection with the relevant instruments before the presentation of this material. This material is presented for illustrative purposes only to point out certain instruments which are (or which were) in the portfolios of certain Carmignac funds, and it is does not aim to promote a direct investment in the instruments mentioned herein. The portfolios of Carmignac funds may change without previous notice. Copyright: The data published in this presentation are the exclusive property of their owners, as mentioned on each page. Non contractual document, completion achieved on 12/07/2016 CARMIGNAC GESTION Asset management company (AMF authorisation no. GP of 13/03/1997) Limited company (société anonyme or SA) with capital of 15,000,000 Registration no.: RCS Paris B Place Vendôme Paris Tel : CARMIGNAC GESTION LUXEMBOURG Subsidiary of Carmignac Gestion UCITS management company (CSSF authorisation of 10/06/2013) Limited company (SA) with capital of 23,000,000 - Registration no.: RC Luxembourg B67549 City Link -7, rue de la Chapelle L-1325 Luxembourg Tel: