Assessment of Natech Risks for Evacuation Planning in Areas Subject to Natech Risks

Transcription

1 Assessment of Natech Risks for Evacuation Planning in Areas Subject to Natech Risks Earthquake Chiba Cosmo Oil Refinery 2011 (Asahi Shimbun 2011) Kyoto Univ. DPRI Haruki Suda Prof. Ana Maria Cruz Prof. Michinori Hatayama Flooding Colorado Anadarko Petroleum Co (The New York Times 2013)

2 Natech Background Natech : Natural-hazard triggered technological accidents Plants Danger of domino effects Natech Hazmats can be released Essential facilities Danger of exposed to hazmats People Danger of exposed to hazmats Necessary for evacuation under the circumstances that natural hazard caused Specific evacuation planning concerning Natech does not exist. 1

3 Natech evacuation Background Kobe Higashinada, The Great Hanshin EQ : available evacuation shelter : available emergency evacuation shelter : calculated impact area : evacuation advisory area issued by Kobe City (57:10000) The evacuation advisory area had 4 available evacuation shelters 3 available emergency evacuation shelters Prevention of overflowing people at the shelters will lead to protect people. 2

4 Objectives Objectives (a) To make recommendations on Natech risk assessment methodologies used in this research (b) To carry out a Natech risk assessment in a case study area (c) To assess the adequacy of evacuation planning for Natech in a case study area 3

5 Risk assessment methodology (a) Background Risk assessment Individual risk assessment Conventional risk assessment (CCPS, Salzano et al.) Natech risk assessment (Antonioni et al., Busini et al.) Area-wide risk assessment PANR : semi-quantitative Natech risk assessment(cruz and Okada (2008)) RAPID-N : calculation tool for the damage of storage tank (European Commission) 4

6 (a) Background PANR methodology : Preliminary Assessment of Natech Risks in urban areas Data collection and inventory development Hazmats release likelihood (HRL) estimation for given natural disaster scenario Consequences analysis Natech risk index (NRI) estimation Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment Using RAPID-N Risk Mitigation [NRIᵢ] = [HRLᵢ] { [Dᵢ] + [Area_scᵢ] + [Cᵢ] } NRIᵢ is Natech Risk Index HRLᵢ is the Hazmat Release Likelihood of each hazmat containing storage tank i. Dᵢ is a score that measures the potential domino effects. Area_scᵢ is a score that measure the potential consequences on the population. Cᵢ is a score that measure the potential consequences on essential facilities. high 5 integer 1 low 5

7 (a) Methodology Definition of each term for NRI calculation [HRL] = [H1] [H2] [H1] : Severity of the damage of the target storage tank [H2] : Probability of occurrence of the natural hazard [D] = [D1] [D2] [D1] : the number of the storage tanks [D2] : distribution of the storage tanks [Area_sc] = [A1] A2 + A3 + A4 +[A5] 4 [A1] : The number of people [A2] : Population distribution [A3] : The number of highly vulnerable people [A4] : The number of low income neighborhoods [A5] : Local disaster prevention level [C1] : Vulnerability due to the critical facilities [C] = [C1] + [C2] + [C3] [C2] : Vulnerability due to the major lifelines [C3] : Vulnerability due to the emergency response 6

8 (a) Discussion Risk mitigation [NRI] = [HRL] { D + Area_sc + C } [HRL] = [H1] [H2] [D] = [D1] [D2] [Area_sc] = [A1] [ A2 + A3 + A4 +[A5] [C] = [C1] + [C2] + [C3] 4 ] Difficulty of mitigation Easy Difficult Very difficult Impossible Criteria [A5] [H1], [A4], [C1], [C3] [D1], [D2], [A1], [A2], [A3], [C2] [H2] light Probability of occurrence of the natural hazard First risk reduction measure could include [A5]. Bringing down [H1] is very important. local disaster prevention level heavy Severity of the damage of the target storage tank 7

9 (a) Discussion Natech risk assessment metodologies PANR Risk = Severity Probability Risk Severity Probability [HRL] [H1] [H2] [D] - [D1] [D2] [Area_sc] [A1] A2 + A3 + A4 + [A5] 4 [C] - [C1] + [C2] + [C3] Other criteria that should be considered in PANR. The risk management of the industrial plant that handle hazmats. (HRL) Vulnerability due to the number of physically handicapped persons. (Area_sc) RAPID-N considers only [HRL]. [D], [Area_sc], [C] should be considered. This study proposes that RAPID-N should create Consequence and Vulnerability Assessment module. 8

10 Outline of the research (b), (c) Methodology Data collection and inventory development Hazmats release likelihood (HRL) estimation for given natural disaster scenario Consequences analysis Natech risk index (NRI) estimation Hazard Identification and Vulnerability Assessment Risk Mitigation Evacuation assessment Main Scenario Kobe City Higashinada Ward Nankai trough earthquake Mw9.1 expected 50% in 50 years It may cause tsunami. The Mainichi (2012) 9

11 (b) Methodology Natech risk assessment of each storage tanks in a plant Kobe Higashinada Ammonia Oil The other 4 th hazmats Data from Higashinada Fire Station LPG 10

12 NRI estimation of each storage tank (b) Results Storage tank [NRIᵢ] = [HRLᵢ] { [Dᵢ] + [Area_scᵢ] + [Cᵢ] } Hamats NRI HRL D Area_sc C T-101 LPG T-102 LPG T-103 LPG T-104 LPG T-105 LPG T-106 LPG T-107 LPG T-108 LPG T-2 Ammonia T-43 methanol T-60 ethanol T-1 oil Layout of the plant T-2 T-101 T-102 T T-108 T-103 T-105 T-107 T-106

13 NRIs and consequences on human (b) Results Natural hazard Plant NRI Deaths Injured Note The Great East Japan earthquake Tokachi-oki earthquake Niigata earthquake The Great Hanshin earthquake The Great East Japan earthquake Kashima Tomakomai Idemitsu Showa oil refinery TM terminal Kobe plant Chiba Cosmo oil refinery Unknown houses burned 118 glasses shattered Nankai trough earthquake TM terminal Kobe plant 39?? 12

14 deaths injured Economic damage (b) Discussion Drawing of graph to understand the value of NRI More samples must be collected and filed in directory, such as RAPID-N. Natech accidents of only occurred in Japan are not sufficient to analyze NRI Nankai trough earthquake NRI NRI estimation needs more test for its refinement of process. We must consider all the tanks in a complex. 13

15 (c) Methodology Evacuation assessment for explosional event Data collection Estimation of the overpressure Estimation of the projection Identification of the safest routes Comparison with the evacuation routes that people are going to use 1. Identification of the hazmats in the combinato 2. Estimation of the three dimensional impact area 3. Identification of the obstacles which will protect roads from the debris caused by a Natech accident in the case study area 4. Identification of the safest routes to the evacuation shelters 5. Comparison of the identified safe evacuation routes to the evacuation routes people are going to choose based on the a questionnaire survey in the case study area 14

16 Conclusions and Future Research Conclusions The PANR methodology can be refined with better, more detailed data and procedures to obtain more accurate results. An important measure to reduce Natech risk is that industrial facility owners carry out detailed process hazard assessments. (H1) Residents should be well informed about the Natech dangers in their area, as well as the disaster prevention and preparedness measures they should take. (A5) RAPID-N could benefit by having a Consequences and Vulnerability Assessment module. Natech risk following Nankai trough earthquake in Higashinada Ward is not negligible and urgent need to assess Natech risks in Higashinada Ward is demonstrated. 15

17 Conclusions and Future Research Future Research To refine of the PANR by improving the way each criteria is estimated, and by introducing other criteria into the assessment process. To investigate and identify all the hazmats and quantities that are stored, processed and/ or handled in each facility in Higashinada Ward. To make database with many Natech events and identify the damage for human due to the Natech events. To perform a quantitative Natech risk assessment that provide more detailed information on possible scenarios and their credible combination of events. Application of the past research of fragment projection and application of the WTNT methodology To apply the other areas that are subject to the Natech risks such as the Sakai Industrial Park in Osaka Bay. 16

18 Thank you for your kind attention