Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra. Robb Webster, Principal Consultant, PrimePM

Transcription

1 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Robb Webster, Principal Consultant, PrimePM

2 Overview Cobra can be used to monitor how your EAC is fluctuating from month to month. While winsight is the more appropriate tool to perform this type of analysis, Cobra is able to provide detail in this arena. Topics to discuss Forecasting in Cobra: Statistical v Manual Capturing Trends in Cobra Forecast Trend Report Demo 2

3 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Statistical v Manual 3

4 Statistical v Manual Manual forecasts provide a way for CAM s to estimate remaining work. Statistical forecasts provide a way to assess the validity of these estimates. Seeing how any of these are trending are a great indicator of project health 4

5 Manual Forecast Load using the Integration Wizard Generally formulated by CAM 5

6 Statistical Forecast Use the Calculate Forecast wizard to estimate the final cost of the project at any given time during its course. Cobra will calculate based on factors/indices/measurements at the time of calculation. It will always overwrite the current forecast and can be done at any time during the month, so it can be updated periodically throughout a status month. Create a forecast class and indicate its method of calculation 6

7 Statistical Forecast Performance factor = 1 Assumes that the project will perform all remaining work according to budget. Performance factor = 1/CPI cumulative to date (where CPI = Earned Value/Actual Costs) Assumes that all remaining work will be performed at the same rate of efficiency (cost performance index or CPI) as has been achieved so far. Performance factor = 1/CPI last status period Assumes that all remaining work will be performed at the same rate of efficiency as has been achieved in the current fiscal period. Performance factor = 1/CPI last three status periods Assumes that all remaining work will be performed at the same rate of efficiency that has been achieved in the current period plus the two previous periods. Performance factor = 1/CPI last six status periods Assumes that all remaining work will be performed at the same rate of efficiency that has been achieved in the current fiscal period plus five previous fiscal periods. Performance factor = user-defined value Allows you to enter a performance factor at the time new forecasts are generated. 7

8 Statistical Forecast Performance factor = 1/((a * CPI) + (b * SPI)) (where a + b = 1.0) Allows you to define a performance factor that reflects the cumulative CPI and SPI and in which the relative weighting of CPI and SPI are user-definable. This method allows you to indicate the relative importance of cost and schedule performance when calculating performance factors. For example, assume that the cumulative CPI for a work package is 1.5 and the cumulative SPI is 0.6. You want to assign a relative weighting of 75% to the cost performance and 25% to the schedule performance. As a result, Cobra calculates a work-package performance factor of By contrast, if you assume the same values for CPI and SPI but assign a weighting of 25% to cost performance and 75% to schedule performance, Cobra calculates a work-package performance factor of

9 Statistical Forecast Performance factor = 1/(CPI * SPI) (where SPI = EV/Budget) Allows you to define a performance factor based on both the cumulative cost performance index and the cumulative schedule performance index. For example, assume that a work package originally budgeted at $10,000 is half way through its schedule and has a cumulative Budget of $5000. Thirty-percent (30%) of the work package budget has been earned, resulting in a cumulative EV of $3000. Cumulative actual costs, however, are $2000. Thus, the work package has an unfavorable SPI of 0.6 (3000/5000) and a favorable CPI of 1.5 (3000/2000). As a result, Cobra arrives at a work-package performance factor of

10 Statistical Forecast Multiple performance factors This method allows you to have multiple performance factors. With the multiple performance factor feature you can have Cobra calculate a different performance factor depending on how much of the project has been completed. Cobra determines how much of the project has been completed by comparing the cumulative EV to the BAC. When you define multiple performance factors for a forecast, you can define up to four ranges of completion over which a particular performance factor takes effect. For example, if you want to set up a forecast that uses a performance factor of 1 (forecast method 1) for the first third of the work, a user-defined performance factor (forecast method 6) over the second third of the work, and the cumulative CPI (forecast method 2) over the final third you can use the following definition: 10

11 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Capturing Trends 11

12 Trends It is possible in Cobra to capture any project health indicators and create reports showing trends 12

13 Trends Create a work package, resource, and cost class to hold the numbers. 13

14 Trends The curve report will create a line graph. Format the template to look like the style you require. You can apply this same concept to other measurements, like expected progress or variance monitoring 14

15 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Forecast Trend Report Demo 15

16 Report 62,000,000 EAC Trend Past 12 months 60,000,000 58,000,000 56,000,000 54,000,000 52,000,000 50,000,000 48,000,000 16

17 Setup: Classes and Cost Sets 17

18 Setup: Classes and Cost Sets 18

19 Setup: Reclass 19

20 Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook) LPARAMETERS toobj PRIVATE vpcprogram, conn * Connect to the server conn = SQLStringConnect( "dsn=cobra5dsn;trusted_connection=true;" ) * Initialize variables vpcprogram = toobj.getparam( "Program" ) SQLExec(conn, "exec [dbo].[rc_evms_advanced_calendar_custom_hook] '"+ vpcprogram + "';") 20

21 Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook) The SQL for the stored nvarchar(22) DELETE FROM TPHASE WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus12'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus12 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus11'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus11 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus10'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus10 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus9'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus9 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus8'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus8 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus7'; 21

22 Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook) UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus7 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus6'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus6 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus5'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus5 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus4'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus4 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus3'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus3 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus2'; UPDATE TPHASE SET CLASS = EACMinus2 WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS = 'EACMinus1'; 22

23 Setup: Reclass (Custom Hook) INSERT INTO TPHASE (PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS,DF_DATE,BATCHNO,COM,DIRECT,FEE,FRINGE,FTE,GANDA,HOURS,OVERHEAD) SELECT a.program,a.cawpid,a.cecode,'eacminus1',a.df_date,'0',sum(a.com),sum(a.direct),sum( a.fee),sum(a.fringe),sum(a.fte),sum(a.ganda),sum(a.hours),sum(a.overhead) FROM TPHASE a, COSTREPCLASS b WHERE a.program = b.program AND a.class = b.class AND a.program AND b.program AND b.cost = 'EAC' GROUP BY a.program,a.cawpid,a.cecode,a.df_date; DELETE FROM COSTELEM WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS LIKE 'EACMinus%'; INSERT INTO COSTELEM (PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS) SELECT PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS FROM TPHASE WHERE PROGRAM AND CLASS LIKE 'EACMinus%' GROUP BY PROGRAM,CAWPID,CECODE,CLASS; 23

24 Setup: Reclass (Batch) To execute a batch process, make a copy of a Cobra desktop shortcut and change the target to the Cobra.Api.exe. Add a user name, password and script file. 24

25 Setup: Reclass (Batch) Your script file will look something like: [Process001] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus11 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus12 [Process002] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus10 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus11 25

26 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [Process003] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus9 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus10 [Process004] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus8 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus9 26

27 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [Process005] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus7 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus8 [Process006] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus6 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus7 27

28 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [Process007] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus5 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus6 [Process008] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus4 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus5 28

29 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [Process009] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus3 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus4 [Process010] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus2 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus3 29

30 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [Process011] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=CopyDelete SourceClass=EACMinus1 TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus2 [Process012] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=Copy SourceClass=ETC TargetAction=Replace TargetClass=EACMinus1 30

31 Setup: Reclass (Batch) [[Process013] ProcessID=Reclass Project=<your project name> SourceAction=Copy SourceClass=ACWP TargetAction=Add TargetClass=EACMinus1 31

32 Running the Report Increase the maximum number of cost sets allowed Has one period flagged, ATCOMPLETE 32

33 Formatting the Report Click to have your cost sets along the horizontal axis 33

34 Value Formatting the Report Format the chart as desired 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 DRAFT Draftsmen {CostSet1.Description} {CostSet2.Description} {CostSet3.Description} {CostSet4.Description} {CostSet5.Description} Time-phase period 34

35 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Q&A 35

36 Monitoring Forecast Trends Using Deltek Cobra Robb Webster, Principal Consultant, PrimePM