The Project Management Cer9ficate Program. Project Cost Management

Transcription

1 PMP cross-cutting skills have been updated in the PMP Exam Content Outline June 2015 (PDF of the Examination Content Outline - June 2015 can be found under the Resources Tab). Learn about why the PMP exam is changing in Download the new Exam Content Outline to study cross-cutting skills here: 1

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4 Review these learning objec9ves carefully. The learning content contained within this module is based on these learning objec9ves. At the end of this module or the end of the course, you should be able to answer quiz or test ques9ons related to these learning objec9ves. If you are par9cipa9ng in this course for cer9fica9on, you will be beoer prepared to pass a cer9fica9on exam by recalling these learning objec9ves. 4

5 includes the processes involved in planning, es9ma9ng, budge9ng, financing, funding, managing, and controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved budget. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, Glossary The es9mate is an approxima9on of the costs and is subject to varia9on as the project is executed. Documented es9mates should include some indica9on of accuracy level. In addi9on, all assump9ons made during the es9ma9ng process are a source of risk and should be monitored. During budget variance repor9ng it may be necessary to refer back to the assump9ons to understand if the source of varia9on was rate or amount. While project cost management is primarily concerned with the resources needed to complete the schedule ac9vi9es, future impacts should also be considered. For example, limi9ng the stress tests of a prototype during the design and development of a new product could increase risk to quality which could also impact customer sa9sfac9on. A company manufacturing refrigerators did just that and had a significant increase in customer complaints when a part failed shortly aser purchase. While the limited stress tes9ng of the new product reduced the 9me to market and project schedule, the company implica9ons were tremendous. 5

6 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on describes the key benefit of this process as providing guidance on how project costs will be managed. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, p

7 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on defines the following for this first process: Inputs Project management plan Project charter Enterprise environmental factors Organiza9onal process assets Tools & Techniques Outputs Expert judgment Analy9cal techniques Mee9ngs Cost management plan 7

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9 Finding someone who is currently working on projects similar to yours can provide a source of expert judgment when it comes to project costs and planning them. Be careful with experts who have been away from the industry for some 9me; recollected memories can be a faulty source of informa9on. Some of the analy9cal techniques you might use in planning cost management are: An understanding of the company s Cost of Capital (kc), the Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Net Present Value (NPV), payback and break even can help in understanding some of the cost constraints on a project and some of the targets. Sources of funding may be important if you are involved in the financing of projects. You may need to analyze whether the sources of funds will be internal or external. Whether these needs will be funded with debt or equity. Determining whether to develop the product internally or outsource the development. Assessing whether to make- or- buy a piece of equipment. Analyzing the costs to own vs. to rent. From Earned value, the To- Complete- Performance Index (TCPI) may indicate a need to examine whether we move forward on an exis9ng project and find addi9onal funding or terminate the project and allocate future funds to projects that were backlogged and wai9ng on resources. 9

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11 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on describes the key benefit of this process as having iden9fied all the costs needed to complete the project. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, p. 200 Es9ma9ng costs includes: Considering cost alterna9ves Evalua9ng the trade- offs Considering risks and varia9ons Considering shared resources When developing cost es9mates, the es9mator must consider factors that may result in varia9ons of the final es9mate, such as posi9ve or nega9ve risk events. All es9mates should be provided with an es9mate of variance based on the inherent risks involved. An example of a risk is the level of experience of the resources likely to work on the project. A less experienced resource has a higher probability of crea9ng rework and resul9ng higher costs as opposed to an experienced, highly trained resource. Cost es9ma9ng is a series of process interac9ons resul9ng in the development of ac9vity cost es9mates along with the basis of those es9mates. This process may lead to iden9fica9on of changes you may wish to request and updates for the cost management plan. When PMI discusses es9ma9ng, it is the process of associa9ng costs, dura9ons and resources at the work package level. Budge9ng, as will be discussed later, aggregates these costs (es9mates) into control or general ledger accounts that are 9me phased. 11

12 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on defines the following for the second process: Inputs Cost management plan Human resource management plan Scope baseline Project schedule Risk register Enterprise environmental factors Organiza9onal process assets Tools & Techniques Expert judgment Analogous es9ma9ng Parametric es9ma9ng BoOom- up es9ma9ng Three- point es9ma9ng Reserve analysis Cost of quality Project management sosware Vendor bid analysis Group decision- making techniques Outputs Ac9vity cost es9mates Basis of es9mates 12

13 Es9ma9ng Costs 1. Done at the lowest level possible 2. Based on the dura9on of the ac9vity 3. Based on the resource assigned to the ac9vity 4. Based on the resources rate When explaining variances, it is important to know whether it was rate or volume that created the variance. Assuming the wrong cause of the variance could lead to taking the wrong correc9ve ac9on. Example: A city in West Texas was having its Air Force base closed. Upon closure, many of the civilian contractors and military personnel moved away leaving hundreds of apartment units empty. One apartment manager explained the drop in occupancy as an indica9on that their rental rates were too high. Relying on this informa9on the management company lowered the rental rates on all of its units. The result was that this exacerbated the situa9on driving rental revenue for the complex even lower. Market condi9ons and commercial databases are enterprise environmental factors that can guide cost es9ma9ng. Organiza9onal process assets include company es9ma9ng policies, templates, and lessons learned, as well as historical informa9on. Pulling from project files and documented informa9on will be more reliable than project team member recollec9on in guiding es9mates. 13

14 Analogous es9mates are usually quick to develop. They compare past, similar projects to the exis9ng project. The es9mator compares the similari9es and differences and makes adjustments to the costs from the past project to reflect the current project. Analogous es9ma9ng usually entails some form of expert judgment to discern the similari9es and differences between the projects being compared. 14

15 Parametric modeling uses project characteris9cs in a mathema9cal model to predict project costs (may be considered top- down or booom up, depending upon the sophis9ca9on of the model) The parametric model can be used early in a process to provide a range. As details are known the parametric model can get more precise. When first deciding to build your own dream house, price per square foot lets you know about how large a home you can build based on your budget. More exac9ng informa9on may increase the level of confidence in your es9mates such as material selec9on. Did you pick the 9le that looks like marble or the marble? Other examples might be: Price per work sta9on Price per cubic yard/cubic meter Price per Btu (Bri9sh thermal unit a unit of energy) Rate/Flow theory is a form of Parametric es9ma9ng 1. Es9mate the rate of the resource ($125 per night hotel stay) 2. Es9mate the volume (3 nights) 3. Calculate the product (es9mate) of the rate X the volume ($125/night X 3 nights = $375 for the stay) 4. Be sure to retain the assump9ons of rate and volume in order to be able to properly explain variances when actuals are collected. 15

16 In the module on Time Management, we discussed whether a par9cular task displayed risk characteris9cs that resembled a triangular distribu9on or a beta distribu9on. Beta distribu2ons (as simplified for project management gives us the PERT equa9on: (O +4ML + P)/6 Triangular distribu2ons where you have 3 es9mates only gives up the average equa9on: (O + ML + P)/3 Both are considered 3- point es9mates. Look for the exam to refer to the Beta equa9on type problem as PERT and the Triangular equa9on type problem as 3- point es9mates. You may need to consider which method is beoer given the data available. See Module 5 on Time Management for more informa9on on this subject. 16

17 Expert judgment can help determine the best method to use to es9mate costs. Expert judgment can also provide informa9on about the market place, historical informa9on and the environment. Bo8om up es2ma2ng is used to develop cost es9mates at a detailed level; either the work package or ac9vity. This can only be done when the scope is fully defined, the resources and schedule are established, and a risk analysis has been completed. It takes 9me to develop, but it is usually the most accurate form of es9ma9ng. Reserve analysis is used to determine how much con9ngency and management reserve should be included in the budget. The cost of quality determines the best approach to balance the compe9ng demands of quality and cost. You will see more informa9on in the module on Project Quality Management. Vendor bid analysis considers bids from vendors and how those costs are integrated with the project costs. Project management sobware is usually used to develop the project budget. SoSware can be as simple as a spread sheet, or can include more complex cost es9ma9ng sosware applica9ons. 17

18 When documen9ng the cost es9mates you should include a list of assump9ons used to develop the es9mates, and the basis of es9mates. For example if you are es9ma9ng the cost for a trip to Chicago you might have document the following informa9on: Assump9ons 1 person will travel The trip will be for 4 days and 3 nights Basis of Es9mates Plane fare $500 Hotel $150 per night Food $90 per day Taxi $45 each way to the airport Airport parking $18 per day Total es9mated cost: $1482 When making assump9ons, you can divide the assump9on into a rate and a flow. For example, staying in the hotel men9oned above.the rate is $150/ night. The Flow is how many nights we are staying in the hotel ( 2 nights). Our es9mate is $150 X 2 = $300 for the stay. It is important to retain your assump9ons and keep the rate and flow separate, so you know what part (rate or flow) caused the devia9on from the budget. Know the correct cause will help ensure that the correc9ve ac9on you take will be appropriate. 18

19 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on describes the key benefit of this process as having iden9fied all the costs needed to complete the project. Determine Budget includes: PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, p. 208 Aggrega9ng cost es9mates by/from work packages and ac9vi9es Aligning with the 9me- phased schedule Establishing the authorized cost baseline The purpose of determine budget is the process of aggrega9ng the es9mated costs of individual ac9vi9es or work packages to establish an authorized cost baseline. This baseline includes all authorized budgets, but excludes management reserves. 19

20 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on defines the following for the third process: Inputs Cost management plan Scope baseline Ac9vity cost es9mates Basis of es9mates Project schedule Resource calendars Risk register Agreements Organiza9onal process assets Tools & Techniques Outputs Cost aggrega9on Reserve analysis Expert judgment Historical rela9onships Funding limit reconcilia9on Cost baseline Project funding requirements Project documents updates 20

21 Each of the inputs to determine budget contributes to the cost baseline. Through cost aggrega9on and alignment with the project schedule, the cost baseline provides a method for measuring the project performance. 21

22 Cost aggrega2on Schedule ac9vity costs are aggregated by work packages in accordance with the WBS Reserve analysis Establishes con9ngency and management reserves that are allowances for unplanned, but poten9ally required, changes Expert judgment Judgment based upon exper9se in an applica9on area, discipline, industry, etc. Historical Rela2onships Any historical rela9onships that result in parametric or analogous es9mates involve the use of project characteris9cs (parameters) to develop mathema9cal models to predict total project cost Funding limit reconcilia2on Expenditure of funds is reconciled with the funding limits set by the customer or performing organiza9on on the disbursement of funds for the project 22

23 Ques9ons to consider when establishing reserve include: How are reserves determined? Rules of thumb (heuris9cs) Risk analysis Lessons learned Historical informa9on Who controls them? How are they accessed? In many organiza9ons the project manager controls the baseline budget, which includes con9ngency reserve, but not the management reserve. Management Reserve may be held at a level above the project. 23

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25 The cost baseline is the total es9mated cost of the project. During project execu9on the budget is displayed graphically using an S curve that indicates the accumulated actual costs of the project over a period of 9me compared with the budgeted costs for that 9me period. The S curve provides a 9me- phased view of the project costs and budget. The S curve graphics will display a progressive summary of costs over the life cycle of the project. Funding usually occurs in incremental or periodic amounts that are not con9nuous, and, therefore, appears as a step func9on in the figure above. 25

26 Since project managers osen control resources through the line managers rather than directly, project managers end up controlling direct labor costs by opening and closing work orders. Work orders define the charge numbers for each cost account or management control point. Dr. Kerzner s term for control accounts is cost accounts; he further says that they are an iden9fied level at a natural intersec9on point of the work breakdown structure and the organiza9onal breakdown structure (OBS) at which func9onal responsibility for the work is assigned, and actual direct labor, material, and other direct costs are compared with actual work performed for management control purposes. Government sectors may refer to these management control points as control account plans, or CAPS. 26

27 Product life cycle cost analysis is an integral part of strategic planning. What are the downstream implica9ons for maintaining the projects product in produc9on or opera9ons? AOemp9ng to reduce the temporary effort or project budget using shortcuts now may have significant impacts later. Refer to p. 714 in the Kerzner textbook Life Cycle Cos9ng. 27

28 Many projects are linked to the ongoing work of the performing organiza9on. Projects and opera9ons differ primarily in that opera9ons are ongoing and repe99ve, while projects are temporary and unique. Temporary does not mean short dura9on. A gated project methodology will use the phase- end review to validate the project s current performance, projected ROI, or other factors and confirm that the project should remain in the project poryolio. Project life cycle costs consider all costs of the temporary endeavor while product life cycle costs consider all projects suppor9ng the product and may include opera9onal expenses as well. 28

29 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on describes the key benefit of this process as providing the means to recognize and address variance from the plan. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, p. 215 Control cost is concerned with: Influencing the factors that create changes to the authorized cost baseline Ensuring that all change requests are acted upon in a 9mely manner Managing the actual changes when and as they occur Ensuring that cost expenditures do not exceed the authorized funding, by period and in total for the project Monitor cost performance to isolate and understand variances from the approved baseline Monitor work performance against the funds expended Preven9ng unapproved changes from being included in the reported cost or resource usage Informing appropriate stakeholders of all approved changes and associated cost, and Ac9ng to bring expected cost overruns within acceptable limits The cost control processes are part of project cost management and should be completely integrated with other control processes such as scope change control, schedule change control, and quality control. Repor9ng that your project is within the planned budget is not sufficient if overall performance does not meet planned expecta9ons or if the project dura9on goes beyond the planned schedule. 29

30 The PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on defines the following for the fourth process: Inputs Project management plan Project funding requirements Work performance data Organiza9onal process assets Tools & Techniques Outputs Earned value management Forecas9ng To- complete performance index (TCPI) Performance reviews Project management sosware Reserve analysis Work performance informa9on Cost forecasts Change requests Project management plan updates Project documents updates Organiza9onal process assets updates 30

31 Project funding requirements may include management reserve if these are monitored at the project level. 31

32 A variance can be defined as any devia9on from the plan. Variance analysis is a comparison of target results with actual results to determine where devia9ons have occurred and implemen9ng the appropriate correc9ve ac9on. When planning the project the project manager and the sponsor should agree upon cost variance thresholds. A common threshold is that 0-5% variance is acceptable, 5-10% is a warning and greater than 10% is unacceptable. The project manager should monitor planned vs. actual expenditures for the work that was accomplished. If the variance trend is deteriora9ng the team should take preven9ve ac9on to keep the variance from passing the threshold limit. If the variance is outside the threshold limit the team should take correc9ve ac9on to bring it back to acceptable performance. Steps involved in managing variance include: 1. Iden9fy variance Formal status review Earned value management (EVM) 2. Assess impact 3. Iden9fy cause 4. Evaluate correc9ve ac9on op9ons 5. Act 32

33 Earned value management is a methodology that combines scope, schedule, and resource measurements to assess project performance and progress. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, Glossary This technique allows the project manager to relate project schedule, cost, and scope using specific mathema9cal formulas, that, when used in calcula9ons, will indicate where variances to the plan exist and where correc9ve ac9on may be required. Earned value compares work that has been planned (what has been scheduled to be completed within the measurement period) with the actual work that has been done (work performed within the measurement period). It also compares the planned cost of the work completed (what we had planned to pay) with the actual cost of the work (what we actually paid). 33

34 Planned Value The authorized budget assigned to scheduled work. Actual Cost The realized cost incurred for the work performed on an ac9vity during a specific 9me period. Earned Value The measure of work performed expressed in terms of the budget authorized for that work. To effec9vely assess project performance using earned value, you must consider both cost and schedule. Earned value management is a method that allows the project team to effec9vely report how a project is performing. This performance is in rela9on to cost and schedule at a specific point in 9me. Earned value can predict the poten9al final results of the project. The technique literally provides an overall project assessment at a glance. Used correctly, EVM will iden9fy if cost and schedule variances have occurred and signal the project team to consider possible ac9ons that may be taken to bring the project back on track with the original plan. 34

35 Simply stated, earned value management aoempts to answer two ques9ons: Where are we today? Where will we end up? The more frequently you address these two ques9ons, the easier it becomes to take the necessary correc9ve ac9ons. Variances from a baseline are easier to manage when the variances are small and are detected early. The formulas noted above are some of the most commonly used. 35

36 If you plan to sit for the PMP exam, you will want to know these formulas. Cost Variance (CV): Using earned value analysis, we can determine the cost variance (CV) by calcula9ng the difference between the earned value (EV) and the actual cost (AC). It is the difference between the value of the work accomplished and the cost to accomplish the work. If the cost variance is posi9ve, then you spent less money than you expected for the work that was accomplished, and you are therefore under budget. The opposite holds true if the cost variance is nega9ve. Schedule Variance (SV) is expressed in dollar amounts. The planned value or amount of work planned to be performed (expressed in dollars) is subtracted from the earned value, or the budgeted cost of the work performed (also expressed in dollars). This tells us the difference between the work that we had planned to have completed at the 9me of measurement and the work that was completed at the 9me of measurement. Cost Performance Index (CPI) is the earned value divided by the actual cost. It relates the ra9o of what was earned to what was spent to earn it. Schedule Performance Index (SPI) is the earned value divided by the planned value. It relates the ra9o of the value of work that was accomplished compared to the value of work that should have been accomplished. In the earned value management system, it is generally accepted that all variances that are posi9ve are favorable, whereas all variances that are nega9ve are unfavorable. Addi9onally, if an index is greater than one the result is good, and if it is less than one, the result is not good. A nega9ve schedule variance or schedule performance index less than 1.0 means you are behind schedule but does not necessarily mean that the cri9cal path has been lengthened. If a work package is on the cri9cal path and the variance is nega9ve, the end date may slip. If the work package is not on the cri9cal path, there may be a slack period in which the work can be made up without affec9ng the end 36

37 Budget at Comple2on. The sum of all budgets established for the work to be performed. Es2mate at Comple2on. The expected total cost of comple9ng all work expressed as the sum of the actual cost to date and the es9mate to complete. Es2mate to Complete. The expected cost to finish all the remaining project work. PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, Glossary 37

38 At some point in your project, you may be asked to determine an es9mate of the project or cost when it is completed. The es2mate at comple2on (EAC) is the projected final cost of the project based on the informa9on taken at the 9me of measurement. It will be affected by overall project performance and may change each 9me project performance is measured. The EAC is compared with the project s budget at comple2on (BAC) to determine how well the project is expected to perform against the plan. The effec9veness of the original es9ma9ng process used in project planning will be a major factor in the degree of variance. There are many different ways to compute the EAC. The most accurate is to develop a new booom up es9mate taking into considera9on past and current performance, outstanding risks and issues and any other informa9on that could impact future performance. However, developing a new booom up es9mate takes 9me, therefore many project managers will calculate an EAC using mathema9cal formulas that they think reflect the future performance of their project. The most common formulas are shown on this slide and explained below. EAC forecast for remaining work performed at the budgeted rate: This EAC method accepts the actual project performance to date as represented by the actual costs, and predicts that all future ETC work will be accomplished at the budgeted rate. When actual performance is unfavorable, the assump9on that future performance will improve should be accepted only when supported by the risk analysis. EAC forecast for remaining work performed at the present CPI: This method assumes what the project has experienced to date can be expected to con9nue into the future. The ETC work is assumed to be performed at the same cumula9ve CPI as that incurred by the project to date. EAC forecast for remaining work considering both SPI and CPI factors: In this forecast, the ETC work will be performed at an efficiency rate that considers both the cost and schedule performance indices. It assumes both a nega9ve cost performance to date and a requirement to meet a firm schedule commitment. This method is most useful when the project schedule is a factor impac9ng the ETC effort. The product of CPI and SPI can be modified by giving different weights to CPI and SPI. E.g.,80/20 or 50/50. 38

39 It is a judgment call based on many considera9ons Risk, Schedule and Technical Performance among others, whether the ini9al BAC can be achieved or not. Under normal condi9ons when the project is progressing well and there is a reasonable chance to meet the cost objec9ve, BAC, we use the top- level formula for TCPI (BAC- EV) / (BAC- AC). However, if performance falls below the baseline and there is agreement that there is no way to aoain the BAC, the PM calculates a new EAC and uses that to iden9fy the performance needed through the rest of the project. TCPI = (BAC- EV) / (EAC- AC) 39

40 Here is a summary of key earned value management formulae, taken from PMBOK Guide FiSh Edi9on, pp , plus several that have proven useful in prac9ce, e.g.: CV% (Mul9ply answer by 100) SV% (Mul9ply answer by 100) VAC Note: Please note that the second TCPI formula (in the last row of the table above) calls for the use of EAC. The (3) in this entry s name column refers to the fact that EAC can be computed in the three various ways shown in the table above. 40

41 To effec9vely assess project performance using earned value, you must consider both cost and schedule. Earned value management is a method that allows the project team to effec9vely report how a project is performing. This performance is in rela9on to cost and schedule at a specific point in 9me. Earned value can predict the poten9al final results of the project. The technique literally provides an overall project assessment at a glance. Used correctly, EVM will iden9fy if cost and schedule variances have occurred and signal the project team to consider possible ac9ons that may be taken to bring the project back on track with the original plan. 41

42 Taking the 9me to actually es9mate the percent of comple9on of any par9cular work package or ac9vity can be difficult and 9me- consuming and it may not be accurate. However, it is necessary to know the percent complete, or how much work has been done, because without this informa9on we cannot calculate the variances and performance indices. One way to simplify the process of determining earned value data without knowing exactly what percentage of a work package is complete is to use the 50/50 rule. Helpful hint: An important item to note is that earned value (EV) has been determined not to be very accurate un9l about 15% of the project has been completed. This is because in the early phases of the project you have many more open or uncompleted work packages than you have work packages that have been completed. 42

43 The concept of the 50/50 rule is to apply ½ of the budgeted cost to the task or work package as soon as the task is started. This will show that the task appears to be 50% complete. The task will con9nue to be shown as 50% complete un9l it is fully completed. At comple9on of the task, or work package, the remaining 50% of the budget is applied to the task to indicate 100% comple9on. This technique eliminates the tedious process of aoemp9ng to determine the exact percentage of comple9on of each project task. It is important to communicate the intent to use the 50 /50 rule to all project stakeholders before repor9ng project performance. 43

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45 HONESTY STANDARDS We are truthful in our communica2ons and in our conduct. When communica9ng the cost es9mate and budget, it is important to disclose the true es9mate rather than a padded es9mate. Providing an es9mate with padding establishes a cycle of es9mate, padding, and cu~ng rather than documen9ng the es9mate with the assump9ons and the basis of es9mates that were used to develop the es9mate. We make commitments and promises, implied or explicit, in good faith. When we commit to a budget baseline we do it in good faith. In other words, we commit to something we believe we can achieve given the informa9on and circumstances we have at the 9me. 46

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