Metals & Energy Nov. 05, 2015

Transcription

1 Market synopsis Precious Metals Base metals High Low Close %Chg OI High Low Close %Chg OI MCX MCX (Rs/kg) Gold(Dec) (Rs/1 gm) 26,73 25,732 25,771 (.6) 7,55 Alum.(Oct) (.4) 8,848 Silver(Dec) (Rs/kg) 35,965 35,478 35,54 (.8) 16,559 Copper(Nov) (.6) 23,678 Gold Mini (Rs/1 gm) 25,993 25,126 25,646 (.8) 11,362 Lead(Oct) (.8) 2,12 Silver Mini (Rs/kg) 35,975 35,485 35,512 (.8) 2,128 Nickel(Oct) (.6) 24,957 COMEX (US$/oz) Zinc(Oct) (1.2) 5,434 Gold(Dec) 1, ,15.6 1,16.2 (3.6) 443,9 COMEX (US$/Ib) Silver(Dec) (3.2) 166,942 Copper ,386 Ratios LME Inventory levels in US$ in US$ Ratio Base Metals Close Prev close %Chg Gold v/s Oil 1, Aluminum 3,23,775 3,32,25 (.3) Gold v/s Silver 1, Copper 263, ,225 (1.2) Lead 145,15 146,85 (1.2) Energy Nickel 428,88 422, High Low Close %Chg OI Zinc 567, ,85 (.2) MCX Cr. oil(nov) (Rs/bbl) 3,173 3,41 3,49 (3.5) 23,334 Currency Nat.gas(Nov) (Rs/mmbtu) ,135 Close Prev close %Chg NYMEX Rs/US$ Cr. oil(dec) (US$/bbl) ,676,897 US$/EUR (1.) Brent Cr. oil (US$/bbl) (.5) 2,219,963 US$/GBP Nat.gas(Dec) (US$/mmbtu) ,46,28 JPY/US$ Pivot Levels MCX levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 26,39 25,942 25,851 25,771 25,691 25,61 25,53 Silver 35,886 35,748 35,618 35,54 35,39 35,261 35,122 Aluminum Copper Lead Nickel Zinc Crude oil 3,153 3,115 3,8 3,49 3,18 2,983 2,945 Nat. Gas International levels Commodity R3 R2 R1 Pivot S1 S2 S3 Gold 1, , , ,16.2 1, , ,93.9 Silver COMEX Copper Crude oil Br. Crude oil Nat. Gas LME Aluminum 1, , , ,54. 1, , , LME Copper 5, , , ,134. 5, ,86.5 5,59.43 LME Nickel 1,48.4 9,98. 9, ,86. 9,83.6 9,74. 9,671.6 LME Lead 1, , , ,68. 1, , , LME Zinc 1, ,75.5 1, ,682. 1, , , A pivot is a level at which the market direction can change for the day. Pivot levels are only broad indicators and not necessarily our view on the commodity.

2 Precious metals Market news and Technical forecast Gold prices extended their fall for the fifth straight session in a row as dollar rally and comments from FOMC chairwoman weighed heavily on prices in yesterday s session. In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, Yellen said December remains a live meeting for an interest-rate hike. December gold shed $1.8, or.2%, to trade at $1,112.3 an ounce on Comex. Yesterday data showed U.S. private-sector employment gains continued in October, though at a slightly slower pace than in the prior month. Employers added 182, jobs last month, Automatic Data Processing Inc. reported Wednesday. ADP revised September's gain down slightly to 19, from a prior estimate of 2,. But separate data showed that the nation s trade deficit continued to contract in September and the Institute for Supply Management s services index rose to a reading of 59.1% in October, its highest level in three months. This week investors are looking ahead to is Friday s jobs report, which could determine the pace and timing of the Fed s rate increase. The investors interest has reduced which is indicated by continuous outflows from ETFs. The holdings of SPDR Gold trust declined to tons as on Nov.2, the lowest in three weeks. The fund has not seen inflows since Oct.19. Technical outlook: Gold s daily trend is down with key resistance at Support is at Sustaining below 257 is important for further fall towards Sell on rally with SL above Silver s trend is down with key support at 354 and resistance at 357. Break below 354 may lead to further fall towards

3 Energy complex Market news and Technical forecast Oil futures nosedived yesterday after weekly inventory data showed rise in crude oil stockpiles for sixth straight week. Strength in the dollar added to pressure on crude-oil prices, as futures gave away nearly all of their gains from a day earlier. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a climb of 2.8 million barrels in crude supplies for the week ended Oct. 3 against expectations of That 2.45 million barrel rise. The number matched the increase reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday. December West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $46.32 a barrel, down $1.58, or 3.3%, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices gave back most of the 3.8% they gained a day earlier. December Brent crude on London s ICE Futures exchange fell $1.96, or 3.9%, to $48.58 a barrel. December natural gas prices continued to remain flat and tacked on nearly a penny to $2.262 per million British thermal units. The U.S. jobs report on Friday is this week s main economic event. Technical outlook: Crude oil s intra-day trend looks down with support at 33 and resistance at Sell on rally around with SL above 312. Natural gas trend looks sideways with support at 147 and resistance at 151. Break above 151 is important to lead to rally towards

4 Base metals Market news and Technical forecast Copper prices ended in red yesterday after rising sharply in earlier trading session. Prices gave away most of their gains by the close of the session as dollar rally weighed on the entire base metals. Yesterday s comments from FOMC chairwoman have increased the likelihood of December rate hike. Improving demand expectations from China provided support to the metal in recent sessions. Chinese copper imports surged in month of September by more than 2 percent from August, to 351,956 tonnes. Also drawing inventories at bonded warehouses are also an indication of rising demand. Inventories have dropped to 4, tonnes from 5 tonnes in August as per Reuters. A surge in Chinese imports of copper is mainly due to buyers taking advantage of low prices to restock, rather than representing increased industrial consumption of the metal widely used in the power and construction sectors. Hence real demand has to come into market for sustaining any upside move. Technical outlook: Copper s intra-day trend remains sideways to down till prices are trading below 34. Break above 344 will likely confirm further upside move. Nickel intraday trend looks down till prices are trading below 66. Breach of 649 may lead to further fall towards Lead intraday trend looks sideways to down with support at 19.9 and resistance at Zinc intraday trend looks sideways to down with key support at 19 and resistance at Break above 111 is important to take prices up. Aluminium intraday trend looks sideways with support at 97. Break above 98.5 is crucial for further upmove.

5 Metals & Energy Nov. 5, 215 Spreads and Arbitrage Calendar spreads Global Indices Commodity Near month 2nd month Close Prev close Markets Close Prev close %Chg Precious metals Gold (Rs/1 gm) 25,771 25, Sensex 26, ,59.6 (.1) Silver (Rs/kg) 35,54 35, Nifty 8,4.2 8,4.2. Asia Nikkie 18, ,935.7 (.) Base metals Hang Seng 23, , Alum. (Rs/kg) Shanghai 3, , Copper (Rs/kg) Straits Times 3,4.5 3, Lead (Rs/kg) Nickel (Rs/kg) America Zinc (Rs/kg) Dow Jones 17, ,918.2 (.3) Energy Cr. oil (Rs/bbl) 3,49 3, Europe Nasdaq 5, ,145.1 (.1) Nat.gas (Rs/mmbtu) CAC 4, , DAX 1, ,951.2 (1.) National-International price parity FTSE 6, , MCX COMEX Close* Prev close* INR Arbitrage Gold 25,771 1, (592.33) Metals & Oil Close Prev close %Chg Silver 35, (225.95) (967.86) Lead - Zinc Copper Gold - Silver (1.5) Crude oil 3, Brent - U.S. crude (17.5) *MCX premium/ (discount) COMEX Gold Options (Near month i.e. Dec.) Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg. Near + 1 month i.e. Jan Call OI Put OI Call OI chg. Put OI chg

6 Today s Economic Data: Date Country / Currency Event IST Actual Cons. Previous 5/11/215 US Unemployment Claims 7: PM 263k 26k US FOMC Member Dudley Speaks 7: PM US Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q 7: PM.1% 3.3% US Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q 7: PM 2.2% -1.4% US FOMC Member Fischer Speaks 7:4 PM US Natural Gas Storage 9: PM 6B 63B Disclaimer: This document is not for public distribution and is meant solely for the personal information of the authorised recipient. No part of the information must be altered, transmitted, copied, distributed or reproduced in any form to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. This document is for general information purposes only and does not constitute an investment advice or an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy / sell any security and is not intended for distribution in countries where distribution of such material is subject to any licensing, registration or other legal requirements. The information, opinion, views contained in this document are as per prevailing conditions and are of the date of appearing on this material only and are subject to change. No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this document or on its completeness. Neither (ABML) nor any person connected with it accepts any liability or loss arising from the use of this document. The views and opinions expressed herein by the author in the document are his own and do not reflect the views of or any of its associate or group companies. The information set out herein may be subject to updating, completion, revision, verification and amendment and such information may change materially. Past performance is no guarantee and does not indicate or guide to future performance. Nothing in this document is intended to constitute legal, tax or investment advice, or an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any investment, or a solicitation of any type. The contents in this document are intended for general information purposes only. This document or information mentioned therefore should not form the basis of and should not be relied upon in connection with making any investment. The investment may not be suited to all the categories of investors. The recipients should therefore obtain your own professional, legal, tax and financial advice and assessment of their risk profile and financial condition before considering any decision., its associate and group companies, its directors, associates, employees from time to time may have various interests/ positions in any of the securities of the Company(ies) mentioned therein or be engaged in any other transactions involving such securities or otherwise in other securities of the companies / organisation mentioned in the document or may have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and / related information and opinions.