Weekly Pan African Monitor. Equity Research Market Indicators News Updates

Transcription

1 August 6th 2018

2 Equities Index Level Market Cap ($bn) W/W Return (Local) YTD Return (Local) BRVM: BRVM 10* % -10.4% 10.4x 2.2x 6.1% Egypt: EGX 30 15, % 4.2% 10.6x 2.4x 172.7% Ghana: GSE Composite 2, % 10.9% 32.7x 2.5x 0.9% Kenya: Nairobi All Share % 0.0% 14.1x 2.1x 4.6% Mauritius: SEMDEX 2, % 1.7% 19.0x x na Morocco: CFG 25 24, % -5.0% na na na Nigeria:Nigeria All Share 36, % -4.6% 10.6x 1.6x 4.5% South Africa: JSE All Share 57, % -4.5% 17.5x 1.9x 3.5% Tunisia: Tunis Index 8, % 33.3% 21.9x 3.0x 1.8% Zimbabwe: Industrial % 18.6% 27.5x 2.1x 2.0% Frontier Markets % -9.9% 12.3x 1.8x 3.6% Emerging Markets 1, % -7.3% 13.4x 1.6x 2.9% 1.7 Movement of the major equities indices across Africa 1.2 P/E Valuation P/B Movements in the Global Indices Vs Africa August 6, 2018 Dividend Yield Nigeria South Africa Ghana Kenya BRVM FM 0.5 EM S BGN Curncy 0.9 MSCI World S&P 500 FTSE 100 MSCI Africa Currencies (Vs USD) Spot Rate WTD Return MTD Return YTD Return 6M Forward 12M Forward Egypt EGP:Pound % -0.1% -0.6% Ghana GHS:Cedi % -0.2% -5.9% Kenya KES: Shilling % 2.7% na na Mauritius MUR: Rupee % -0.9% -2.8% na na Morocco MAD: Dirham % -0.3% -1.5% na na Nigeria NGN: Naira % -0.1% -0.6% South Africa ZAR: Rand % -% -7.7% Tanzania TZS: Shilling 2, % 0.1% -1.9% na na Tunisia TND: Dinar % -1.3% -9.5% na na Zimbabwe ZWL: Dollar na na na 105 Brent Crude 1500 Gold 460 Copper 1 Comdty 55 BGN Curncy 1 COMB Comdty Nov-17 May Nov-17 May-18 Bond Yield Annual Latest GDP External Macro/Fixed Income (10 yr) Inflation Real Return Policy Rate GDP ($'bn) Growth Reserves ($'bn) Egypt 16.0% 14.4% 1.6% 17.8% % 44.3 Ghana 6.9% 10.0% -3.1% 17.0% % 5.0 Kenya 12.4% 4.4% 8.0% 9.0% % 7.3 Mauritius 5.4% 1.0% 4.3% 3.5% % 6.7 Morocco na 2.5% na 3.2% % na Nigeria 14.2% 11.2% 3.0% 14.0% % 47.1 South Africa na 4.6% na 6.5% % 50.6 Tanzania 14.4% 3.4% 11.0% 12.0% % 5.9 Tunisia 7.6% 7.5% 0.2% 6.8% % na Zimbabwe 17.4% 2.9% 14.5% na % 0.4 *MXFM Index: MSCI FM Frontier Markets **MXEF Index: MSCI Emerging Market Index

3 BRVM Exposure to debt-stricken cocoa exporter rocks Ivory Coast banks: Heavy debt exposure to Ivory Coast s largest domestic cocoa exporter, which has been ordered into liquidation, risks destabilising the West African nation s banking sector, bank officials said last week. A court on July 18 ordered the liquidation of the SAF-Cacao group of companies, which includes exporter CIPEXI and processor CHOCO-IVOIRE, over unpaid debts to the Ivorian marketing board, the Coffee and Cocoa Council. The three officials from different lenders, who asked not to be named, told Reuters that the group owed Ivorian banks between 150 billion and 155 billion CFA francs ($268 million to $277 million). Reuters BRVM * AFRICA ** BRVM Current 197 Week Change -2.3% Gainers (no) 14.0 Losers (no) 18.0 Market Breadth 52 wk High wk Low 194 YTD -10.4% Ivory Coast cocoa healthy ahead of main crop, farmers say: Rainfall was below average last week in most of top grower Ivory Coast s cocoa regions but farmers said that soil moisture was still sufficient to support a healthy harvest when the main crop opens in October. Farmers said that small pods were developing well and that they hoped for a mix of rain and sunny spells to boost the quality of the crop and help it avoid disease. Reuters Corporate News No Corporate News NEI CI % Bank of Africa - Burkina Faso 5, % Societe Ivoirienne de Coco Rape 3, % Societe Ivoirienne d'osygne et d'acetyln % CROWN SIEM 13, % Ecobank Transnational Inc % Societe Africaine de Plantations d'hevea 3, % Servair Abidjan 1, % Nestle Cote d'ivoire 2, % Comptoir Francais Afrique % *BRVM 10 Index

4 Egypt Gas production at Egypt's 9B field to begin in October - minister: Production of natural gas from two deepwater wells at Shell s West Nile Delta field 9B in Egypt will begin in the first half of October, the country s petroleum minister said last week. Tarek El Molla said in a statement the whole project, which includes several other wells being dug and linked to production, was set for completion in the second half of 2019 and that its output aims to reach 400 million cubic feet per day. Reuters EGYPT * AFRICA ** EGYPT Current 15,806 Week Change 4.0% Gainers (no) 18.0 Losers (no) 8.0 Market Breadth wk High 18, wk Low 12,899 YTD 4.2% Talaat Moustafa Group % Egyptian Financial Group-Hermes Holding % Six of October Development & Investment % Commercial International Bank Egypt SAE % ElSwedy Electric Co % EL Shams Housing & Urbanization SAE % Palm Hills Developments SAE % Amer Group Holding % Egypt provisional net foreign reserves rise to $44.31bn at end-july: Egypt s provisional net foreign reserves rose to $ billion at the end of July from $ $ billion a month earlier, the central bank said in a statement last week. The reserves have been climbing since Egypt secured a $12 billion, three-year International Monetary Fund loan programme in 2016 as part of efforts to attract foreign investors and revive the economy. Reuters Egypt sets tariff of $0.38 for use of national gas grid: Egypt has set a tariff of $0.38 per million British thermal units (mmbtu) for firms seeking to use its national gas network, the Gas Regulatory Authority said on its website. The tariff, which will be applied nationwide, allows companies to tap into the national gas grid and use it for private imports. Reuters Corporate News Egypt Garment Exporter Giza Spinning Plans November IPO in Cairo: Egypt s biggest garment exporter, Giza Spinning & Weaving, plans to sell as much as 40% of the company in an initial public offering to help finance its expansion plans. The Cairo-based company will list the shares on the local stock exchange in November and will use some of the proceeds to finance the 250-million Egyptian pound ($14 million) expansion of its garments and yarn production, co-chief Executive Officer Fadel Marzouk said in an interview. Bloomberg Beltone Financial Holding Co SAE % Egyptian Electrical Cables -2.5% *EGX 30 Index

5 Ghana GHANA * AFRICA** GHANA Ghana Merges Five Failed Lenders in $1.2 Billion Bank Rescue: Ghana s banking regulator said it created a new lender through a merger of five insolvent banks as the country issued 5.8 billion cedis ($1.2 billion) in bonds to clear their debt. Bank of Ghana revoked the licenses of Unibank Ghana Ltd., Royal Bank Ltd., Beige Bank Ltd., Sovereign Bank Ltd. and Construction Bank Ltd., Governor Ernest Addison told reporters last week in the capital, Accra. The lenders were among the smallest of Ghana s 34 previously authorized banks and the merger is part of increasing efforts to avert failures in an industry that has been beset by poor governance and weak lending. The five lenders assets will be transferred to the newly created Consolidated Bank Ghana Ltd., which is fully owned by the government, Addison said. The government will provide the bank with 450 million cedis in fresh capital, he said. Bloomberg Current Week Change 0.1% Gainers (no) 5.0 Losers (no) 0.0 Corporate News No Corporate News Market Breadth NM 52 wk High wk Low YTD 10.9% Ecobank Transnational Inc 0 4.8% Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd 4 1.5% CAL Bank Ltd 1 % Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd 5 % Enterprise Group Ltd/Ghana 3 0.7% urce: Bloomberg, United Capital Research *GSE Composite Index

6 Kenya KENYA * AFRICA** KENYA Current Week Change -% Gainers (no) 15.0 Losers (no) 14.0 Market Breadth 52 wk High wk Low YTD 0.0% Eveready East Africa Ltd % Scan Group Ltd % East African Cables Ltd % CIC Insurance Group Ltd % SASINI Ltd % Uchumi Supermarkets Ltd % Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd % Home Afrika Ltd -5.9% Kenya Power & Lighting Ltd % TPS Eastern Africa Ltd % Farming, tourism to boost Kenya 2018 growth to 6.2% -C.Bank head: Kenya s economy is likely to expand by 6.2% this year, the central bank s governor said last week, offering a rosier outlook than the Finance Ministry which expects growth of 5.8%. The East African economy expanded by 5.7% in the first quarter as farming, which accounts for close to a third of output, recovered from a drought in the same period a year earlier. The economy expanded by 4.9% in Reuters Kenya's inflation rises to 4.35% year-on-year in July: Kenya s inflation rose slightly to 4.35% year-on-year in July from 4.28% a month earlier, the statistics office said last week. The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics said in a statement inflation was -9% on a month on month basis. Reuters IMF makes significant progress in talks with Kenya: The International Monetary Fund s mission to assess the Kenyan economy achieved significant progress and talks with the government will continue in the coming weeks, the IMF said last week after a two week visit to Nairobi. Kenya secured a six-month extension for its stand-by credit arrangement of $989.8 million from the fund in March and is seeking another extension when it expires in mid-september. Reuters Kenya's MPC Cuts Rates to Spur Below-Potential Economic Growth: Kenya s Monetary Policy Committee unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate for the second time this year to spur private-sector lending and economic growth. After signaling room for a more accommodative monetary policy at its May meeting, the MPC reduced the gauge to 9.0%, the lowest in three years, from 9.5%, according to a statement published Monday on the Nairobi-based central bank s verified Twitter account. Reuters Corporate News No Corporate News *Nairobi All Share Index

7 Mauritius Mauritius bank to launch India subsidiary: State Bank of Mauritius (SBM), the largest commercial lender of the island nation, has said that it will soon set up a wholly owned subsidiary in India the first by any foreign institution. Addressing newspersons, SBM Holdings CEO (India and East Africa) Moses Harding said that the bank would commence operations with a start-up capital of over Rs 500 crore and will launch six branches in Delhi, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Pune, Ahmedabad and Jaipur, in addition to existing branches in Mumbai, Chennai, Hyderabad and Ramachandrapuram. EIN MAURITIUS * ** AFRICA MAURITIUS Current 224 Week Change -0.7% Gainers (no) 5.0 Losers (no) 8.0 Market Breadth wk High wk Low YTD 1.7% Caudan Development Ltd 3.7% Vivo Energy Mauritius Ltd % SBM Holdings Ltd 7.4 % Rogers & Co Ltd % Gamma Civic Ltd % China looks forward to signing FTA with Mauritius: President Xi Jinping said that China and Mauritius are expected to sign a Free Trade Agreement in the near future, following meetings with Mauritian Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth in the Indian ocean island nation, Yicai.com reported. Earlier in June, the second round of negotiations on the China-Mauritius FTA were held in Beijing, following the first round of negotiations held in Mauritius in April. Upon completion, it will become the first free trade zone between China and an African country. EIN Corporate News No corporate news ENL Land Ltd % Omnicane Ltd % Sun Resorts Ltd/Mauritius % Mauritius Development Invest Trust Co Lt 5.0 -% New Mauritius Hotels Ltd % *SEMDEX

8 Nigeria Nigeria's central bank auctions Chinese currency in first yuan sale: Nigeria s central bank sold yuan at a range of naira at its first auction of the Chinese currency, traders said, two months after it agreed a $2.5 billion swap with Beijing. The auction, which traders said saw yuan sold for immediate and for 15-day settlement, is part of efforts to encourage the use of an alternative trading currency to the U.S. dollar. Reuters Corporate news NIGERIA * AFRICA ** NIGERIA Current 36,500 Week Change -0.4% Gainers (no) 36.0 Losers (no) 42.0 Market Breadth wk High 45, wk Low 34,653 YTD -4.6% Union Diagnostic & Clinical Services PLC % Neimeth International Pharmaceuticals PL % Mutual Benefits Assurance PLC % Niger Insurance PLC % SEPLAT Petroleum Development Co Plc % Nigerian fertiliser maker Notore lists 1.6bn shares at naira each: Fertiliser maker Notore Chemical Industries Plc listed 1.61 billion ordinary shares on the Nigerian Stock Exchange at naira each last week, valuing the company at billion naira, the company said. The free float is 16.0% of the company, which produces fertiliser for sale within Nigeria and for export to West Africa, Southern Africa and Europe. Reuters Shell to make final investment call on Nigeria oilfield in official: Royal Dutch Shell and its partners will decide next year on whether to go ahead with the development of Nigeria s Bonga Southwest offshore oilfield, a senior company official said last week. The project, one of the country s largest with an expected production of 180,000 barrels per day, will generate profit at below $50 a barrel, Bayo Ojuli, managing director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company, told reporters. Reuters International Breweries PLC % Diamond Bank PLC % Pharma-Deko PLC % Secure Electronic Technology PLC % *Nigeria All Share Index

9 South Africa 1.4 South Africa's Absa PMI up in July as new sales orders rise: South Africa s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose in July supported by an uptick in new sales orders and business activity, a survey showed last week. The Index, which gauges manufacturing activity in Africa s most industrialised economy, rose to 51.5 points last month from 47.9 in June. The 50-mark separates contraction from expansion. Reuters 0.5 SA * AFRICA** SA South Africa's trade surplus jumps to 12 billion rand in June: South Africa s trade surplus widened to 12 billion rand ($917 million) in June from a revised 3.84 billion rand surplus in May, data from the revenue agency showed last week. Exports rose by 7.1% on a month-on-month basis to 110 billion rand in June, while imports dipped 0.9% to 98 billion rand, the South African Revenue Service said in a statement. Reuters Current 57,118 Week Change -0.1% Gainers (no) 97.0 Losers (no) 44.0 Market Breadth wk High 61, wk Low 53,027 YTD -4.5% ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd % Sibanye Gold Ltd % Clover Industries Ltd 1, % African Oxygen Ltd 2, % Lonmin PLC % Aveng Ltd 8-1% Group Five Ltd/South Africa % Peregrine Holdings Ltd 1, % Grand Parade Investments Ltd % Imperial Holdings Ltd 20, % South Africa's Q2 unemployment rate rises to 27.2%: South Africa s unemployment rate rose to 27.2% of the labour force in the second quarter from 26.7% in the first quarter, the statistics office said last week. Reuters South Africa's credit demand growth rises to 5.68% in June: Growth in private-sector credit demand in South Africa quickened to 5.68% in June from 4.54% in May, central bank data showed last week.reuters Corporate news Eskom's Borrowing Costs Fall in First Eurobond Sale Since 2015: The cash-strapped utility s borrowing costs fell as it tapped international debt markets for the first time in more than three years, barely a week after it secured a $2.5 billion loan from China Development Bank. It also moved closer to a wage deal with labor unions last week that would end work stoppages that have disrupted power supplies. Bloomberg *JSE All Share Index

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