Morocco: It s oh so quiet
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1 Morocco: It s oh so quiet Stéphane Colliac Economic Research Department Paris, April 217
2 Morocco (B1) is given the best Euler Hermes grade all over the African continent Hurdles in Africa #1 Political risk at the root Aftermath of the Arab Spring (political gridlocks and fractionalization of some countries) and Sunni/Shia rivalry (Saudi Arabia vs. Iran) Old cold conflicts warming up again (e.g. Kurds in Turkey and beyond) Political uncertainty on the back of weak economic performance in commodity exporters (South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Gabon) Middle East & Africa: country risk and economic growth growth in 217 in light grey Morocco B1 4.5% B3 2.% Tunisia D3.% Egypt Saudi Arabia BB1 1.5% #2 A commodity price/exchange rate issue Despite some oil price recovery, terms of trade heavily cut national savings (about 25% of GDP in Saudi Arabia) Exchange rate policy: Floating exchange rates acted as shock absorbers (South Africa, Egypt) and fixed ones worsened by the sudden stop (Nigeria, Angola) #3 A growing debt pile Vulnerable fiscal policy: Fiscal spending is key for social cohesion, so consolidation is tricky Public debt increased in many Sub-Saharan economies: Either liquidity issues (Ghana, Tunisia) or solvency risks (Mozambique, Angola) Nigeria D3 1.% Angola D3.5% South Africa B2 1.% Kenya C2 6.5% Low risk Medium risk Sensitive risk High risk Source: Euler Hermes Source: Euler Hermes 2
3 In 217, GDP growth strikes back, as expected Consumption (public & private) was the resilient factor in 216. Growth should be broader-based in 217 In 217Q1, GDP growth accelerated to +4.3% y/y, after +.9% in 216Q4. A good harvest helped agricultural output recover Contributions to GDP growth (%) Value added: agriculture vs. non-agriculture Non-agricultural value added y/y change (right) 6% Non-agricultural value added Agricultural value-added 5% % % % p 17f Public consumption Private consumption Investment Net exports Inventories GDP growth 11 1% 15 1 % Q1 12 Q1 13 Q1 14 Q1 15 Q1 16 Q1 17 Sources: Données nationales, Euler Hermes Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes 3
4 Current account balance (% of GDP) A balancing act: Exchange rate liberalization The current account deficit is hard to beat. It is consistent with a view that the Dirham is too high GDP growth and current account balance A more flexible Dirham will start to be implemented in June. A +/-2.5% target range is likely Dirham: real effective exchange rate Balanced growth Appreciation New currency basket Exchange Rate, Reer Based On Rel.Cp, Index Number, Source: Fed Tapering Trump Election GDP growth (%) Sources: IMF, Euler Hermes Sources: Bloomberg, Euler Hermes 4
5 Current account (% of GDP) Inflation (%) More exchange rate flexibility is manageable Despite a deterioration of the current account deficit, the import cover of foreign reserves is quite stable: no external liquidity issue External balance: forex reserves and current account Low inflation is a strength. Fiscal consolidation lagged in 216, but financing is not a big issue (S&P affirmed its BBB- sovereign rating) Internal balance: fiscal balance and inflation Import cover Fiscal balance (% of GDP) Sources: IMF, Euler Hermes Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes 5
6 2,463 2,766 3,96 3,73 4,395 5,37 5,955 7,221 7,8 8,4 In the real economy, the seemingly stability goes along some concerning realities Except for IT services, sector risks remain unchanged. Flop 3 : construction, metal and textile Euler Hermes sector risk assessment An surging number of insolvencies (+21% in 216) related to strong business growth and housing downturn Business insolvencies 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, f 218f Source: Euler Hermes Source: Euler Hermes 6
7 An additional EUR1.8bn (MAD15.3bn) in goods exports to make in 217, 3 times 216 export gains In 217, good exports should increase by +1%. Demand from African economies is increasing, but remains far below European one Export gains in 217, by destination (M EUR) 7% of export gains will be driven by 3 sectors. Chemicals include pharmaceuticals and fertilizers (phosphate) Export gains in 217, by sector (M EUR) Brazil Western Africa China United States North Africa (13 in 216) (-2 in 216) Ferrous Wood, Paper Non-ferrous Electronic Machinery & Equipment Other Europe North America Latin America Africa and Middle East Asia Oceania Italy 87 Energy 153 Germany 94 Vehicles 169 India 11 Electric 234 France 423 Spain Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes Chemical Textile Agrifood Sources: IHS, Euler Hermes , 7
8 Thank you for your attention Economic Research Department Euler Hermes Group 1 place des Saisons 9248 Paris La Défense Cedex France Phone research@eulerhermes.com This material is published by Euler Hermes SA, a Company of Allianz, for information purposes only and should not be regarded as providing any specific advice. This publication and its contains are proprietary to Euler Hermes SA. Euler Hermes and Euler Hermes logo are trademarks or registered trademarks belonging to Euler Hermes Group, Worldwide Recipients should make their own independent evaluation of this information and no action should be taken, solely relying on it. This material should not be reproduced or disclosed without our consent. It is not intended for distribution in any jurisdiction in which this would be prohibited. Whilst this information is believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified by Euler Hermes and Euler Hermes makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any kind, as regards the accuracy or completeness of this information, nor does it accept any responsibility or liability for any loss or damage arising in any way from any use made of or reliance placed on, this information. Unless otherwise stated, any views, forecasts, or estimates are solely those of the Euler Hermes Economics Department, as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The classification of this document is PUBLIC. Euler Hermes SA. Registered in Nanterre ( ).Euler Hermes SA is authorized and regulated by the Financial Markets Authority of France. Copyright 216 Euler Hermes. All rights reserved
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