CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL)

Transcription

1 CENTRAL BANK OF LIBERIA (CBL) MONTHLY ECONOMIC REVIEW JUN VOLUME 4 No. 6

2 The Monthly Economic Review is produced by the Bank s Research, Policy & Planning Department. Inquiries concerning this publication should be addressed to: The Director Research, Policy & Planning Department Central Bank of Liberia P. O. Box 2048 Ashmun & Lynch Streets, Monrovia, Liberia Contacts: / / Fax: 00(231) Table 2: Performances of End-of-Period WAMZ Exchange Rates against the US Dollar Appr (-)/Depr (+) Currency Jun -17 May-18 Jun-18 MoM YoY GHC GMD GNF 8, , , LRD NGN SLL 7, , , Sources: Central Banks of Liberia and WAMA: LRD Liberian Dollar GHC Ghanaian Cedi GMD Gambian Dalasi GNF Guinean Franc NGN Nigerian Naira SLL Sierra Leonean Leone USD US Dollar 9

3 10 Inflation (In percent) 10a Overall (Year-on-year) Rate of Inflation a. Food and Non-alcoholic Beverages Inflation - Domestic Food Inflation Imported Food Inflation b. Transport Inflation c. Imported Fuels Inflation Overall (Month-on-Month) Rate of Inflation b Core Inflation (In percent) Inflation excluding Food & Non-alcoholic Beverages Inflation excluding Imported Food Inflation excluding Domestic Food Inflation excluding Food and Transport c Production (Metric Tons, Carats and Ounces) Iron Ore 469,047 35, ,466 ± 224,021 ± Gold 16,109 17,301 26,061 12,407 Diamond 10,549 13,473 9, Rubber 5,792 4,467 5,094 4,205 Cement 37,980 43,397 35,731 21,863 Beverages (In Liters) Alcoholic 497, ,591 1,269,040 1,247,654 Non-Alcoholic 931,039 1,042,549 1,045, ,621 Total Beverages Production 1,428,186 2,007,140 2,314,447 2,016,275 * US$ converted to L$ ^With liquidity Effect ** Other Deposits Include Official and Manager Checks ***The Minimum Capital Adequacy Ratio is 10% ****The Required Minimum Liquidity Ratio is 15% Reserves exclude ECF borrowing from the IMF ± Provisional, Preliminary, Estimate Revised Not Available (NA) /1 Average Monthly prices of Dated Brent, West Texas Intermediate & Dubai Fateh OVERVIEW The month of June, 2018 witnessed mixed trends in the production of key commodities in the Liberian economy. Commodities including cement, beverages and diamonds declined, while the production of rubber, iron ore and gold increased. Inflation for the month increased on a year-on-year basis mainly on account of the depreciation of the Liberian dollar (LD), while on a month-on-month basis, inflation declined. In the monetary sector, broad money supply (M2) at end-june, 2018 rose above the stock recorded both in the previous month and the corresponding month a year-on-year with net foreign (NFA) and domestic assets (NDA) trended in opposite directions. Disaggregation of currencies in commercial bank loans to private sector revealed that United States dollar (USD) component increased, while the Liberian dollar component fell, both on month-on-month and year-on-year bases. Average exchange rate of the LD vis-à-vis the USD at the end of the review month depreciated when compared with the previous month ended May, During the review month, the Government of Liberia (GoL) net withdrawal of Liberian Dollars amounted to L$3.5 million through T-bills operations. Key financial soundness indicators of the banking industry continued to show robust performance at end June, GoL s fiscal operations at end-june, 2018 showed a fiscal outturn resulting in a surplus while the stock of public debt rose. On the external front, data showed that Liberia s trade balance relatively improved due to a more than proportionate decrease in import payments vis-à-vis export earnings. The gross foreign reserves position of the CBL rose modestly after experiencing another slight increase in the preceding month. 12 1

4 REAL SECTOR & PRICE DEVELOPMENTS Production Analyses of Key Commodities Statistics from the productive sector revealed that the production of various commodities produced in the Liberian economy during the month of June 2018 showed mixed trends when compared with output during the previous month. Except for iron ore, all key commodities, included gold, diamond, beverages, rubber and cement declined in output during the month. Cement output during the month declined by 13,868 metric tons, from 35,731 metric tons produced a month ago. The 38.8 percent drop in output was mainly a result of the occasioning of the heavy downpour of rain which delayed construction activities. Beverages production fell to 2.0 million litres, from 2.3 million litres produced in May. The 12.9 percent or 298,172 litres reduction in production of the commodity was due to inventory build-up. Diamond production during the review period was 128 carats, down from 13,473 carats produced during the preceding month. The 9,738 carats dip in the production of diamond was attributed to slow down in mining activity in anticipation of the heavy rainfall during the reporting month. Rubber output during the month plummeted to an estimated 4,205 metric tons, from a revised 5,094 metric tons produced in the previous month. The slump in production of rubber was attributed to the declining global price of the commodity. Iron ore production grew to an estimated 224,021 metric tons, up from 208,466 metric tons produced during the preceding month. The estimated rise in iron ore production is attributed to the anticipated increase in the price of the commodity on the global market. Gold output decreased to 12,407 ounces, down from 26,061 ounces produced a month ago. The fall in gold production was attributed to the decline in its global market price. 5 CBL's Foreign Exchange Auction (Millions of US$) US Dollar Amount Sold Total Subscription Over (+)- / Under (-) Subscription CBL Bills Auction (Millions of L$) Bill Issued Bill Redeemed Personal Remittances (Millions of US$) Inflows Outflows Net flows Exchange Rate (USD/LD) End of Period Period Average Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI) (In percent) Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR)*** Non-performing Loans to Total Loans Non-performing Loans (% change) Returns on Assets (ROA) Returns on Equity (ROE) Liquidity Ratio**** /1 Trade data now sourced from Customs (LRA) with larger coverage than BIVAC. 1 demand deposits exclude manager checks from commercial banks Consumer Prices Year-on-year rate of inflation increased by 3.3 percentage points to 24.6 percent at end-june 2018, up from 21.3 percent at end-may The rise in inflation was attributed to increases in all the major subgroups, especially 2 11

5 4 Monetary (Millions of US$) CBL Net Foreign Exchange Reserves Position (Including SDRs) CBL Gross Foreign Reserves (including SDRs) Liberian Dollars in Circulation 16, , , ,236.1 Money Supply (M1) in L$ only 22, , , ,741.6 Broad money (M2) in L$ only 30, , , ,233.3 Broad money (M2) in both L$ and US$* 87, , , ,801.2 (In percent) Liberian Dollar share of Broad Money Interest Rates - Lending rate Average Deposit rates -Savings Time (In Millions of Currencies) Commercial banks loans to private sector - US$ Commercial banks loans to private sector - L$ 4, , , ,341.8 Demand Deposits of commercial banks Demand deposits - US$ Demand deposits - L$ 6, , , , Time & Savings Deposits of commercial banks Time & savings deposits - US$ Time & savings deposits - L$ 7, , , ,428.4 Other Deposits** Table 1: Fact Sheet Actual US$ component of other deposits Liberian $ component of other deposits Transport, mainly due to the increased in the price of petroleum products. On a monthly basis, the rate of inflation increased by 4.6 percentage points to 5.8 percent from 1.1 percent recorded during the month of May, The rise in monthly inflation rate was mainly attributed to the increase. Some subgroups including Transport, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels and Restaurant & Hotel. MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS Monetary Policy Stance The monetary policy objective of the Central Bank of Liberia (CBL) for June, 2018 remained securely fixed on price stability through broad exchange rate stability. In seeking to achieve its objective, the CBL intervened in the Foreign exchange market by providing foreign exchange through the regular auction and issuing GoL T-bills as the readily available tools to implement its monetary policy operations. Soon, the CBL aims to create a standing deposit facility as an additional monetary policy tool to help mitigate the persistent pressure on the domestic currency. Monetary Aggregates and Credit Provisional statistics on Broad money supply (M2) at end-june 2018 showed that M2 expanded by 10.2 percent to L$95,801.2 million, from L$86,368.9 million recorded at end-may, This growth was mainly on account of expansions in three key instruments: time & saving deposits, demand deposits and currency outside banks. Time & saving deposits and demand deposits rose by 15.0 percent and 11.6 percent, respectively, while currency outside the banking system grew by 2.0 percent when compared with the previous month. All driven by deterioration in the value of the domestic currency and it s pass through to inflation as well as the general expectation that prices will decline in the nearest future thereby causing people to suspend current spending. However, annual comparison showed that broad money grew by 35.4 percent mainly triggered by significant swell in currency outside banks, demand deposits, time & saving deposits and other deposits 3

6 by 38.8 percent, 33.3 percent, 36.8 percent and percent, respectively. Disaggregation of assets components of monetary aggregates showed that net foreign assets (NFA) and net domestic assets (NDA) drifted in opposite directions at end-june, 2018 when compared with both the preceding month and the same month a year ago. Monthly comparison showed that NFA fell by 0.7 percent, but by 7.6 percent on an annualized basis. The monthly decline in NFA was driven by 10.4 percent contraction in foreign assets of the CBL which marginally outweighed the 16.2 percent expansion in foreign assets of banking institutions, while the annual decline was on account of 8.6 percent and 6.1 percent slowdown in foreign assets of CBL and banking institutions, respectively. NDA which remained relatively low when compared with end-may, 2018 expanded by 14.5 percent at end-june 2018 and by 54.5 percent when compared with the corresponding month in The annual increase was mainly on account of 25.2 percent and 36.2 percent increases in net credit to government and credit to the private sector including credit to NBFIs. NDA also rose on a month-on-month basis as a result of 14.9 percent, 18.1 percent and 23.2 percent increases in net credit to government, credit to the private sector and credit to other assets net, respectively. At end-june, 2018, the US dollar share of commercial bank loans to private sector rose by 11.6 percent to US$406.3 million mainly on account of the stability in the value of the US dollar coupled with the fluctuation in the value of the home currency. The Liberian dollars component fell by 38.4 percent to L$2,574.1 million. Year-on-year comparison showed that the US dollar share grew slightly by 4.1 percent while the Liberian dollar share fell by 31.1 percent, both driven mainly by increases in loan to the Extractive, Manufacturing, Trade and Agriculture sectors (for US$ share) and declines in loans to the Construction, Oil & Gas, Trade sectors as well as Personal loans (for L$ share). This trend of private sector credit is explained by the deterioration in the value of the Liberian dollar coupled with the stable value of the US dollar and the expectation of the public. 4 3 External Trade (Value) (Millions of US$) 3a Exports/ O/w Iron Ore O/w Rubber O/w Mineral o/w Cocoa Bean o/w Palm Oil b Imports (F.O.B)/ Minerals, Fuel, Lubricants O/w Petroleum Products Food and Live Animals (including Animal and vegetable oil) O/w Commercial Rice O/w Non-commercial Rice Machinery & Transport Equipment Import (C.I.F) Trade Balance c External Trade (Volume) (Metric Tons) - Rubber 5,792 4,467 5,094 4,205 -Iron Ore 469, ,000± Commercial Rice 138, ,996± 142, ,171 -Non-commercial Rice 1,188 1,250± 1,266 1,314 - Petroleum Products 2,807 5,621 5,544 4,211 - Cocoa Beans 21, Palm Oil 20, ,215 4,405 17,413 9

7 2 Fiscal Operations 2a Revenue, Expenditure & Debt (Millions of US$) Actual Revenue & Grants Projected Revenue & Grants b Expenditure c Public Debt Stock Domestic External d Treasury Securities (Millions of L$) T- Bills Issued T- Bills Redeemed Net GoL Treasury Bills Operations^ Ave. Weighted Discount Rate_T Bills Bond Issued (2 yrs.) amount in Billion T- Bond Issued T- Bond Settled Net GoL Treasury Bond Operations^ Ave. Weighted Discount Rate_T Bond Source: MFDP, CBL Exchange Rate The average exchange rate of the Liberian dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar at end-june, 2018, depreciated by 6.6 percent to L$143.1/US$1.00. The end-ofperiod (EOP) exchange rate for the same period depreciated by 9.1 percent to L$150.8/US$1.00. Annualized comparison indicated that the average exchange rate depreciated by 27.0 percent and the EOP rate, by 33.3 percent. The continuous increasing demand for the US dollar to facilitate imports coupled with the weak nature of the economy s real sector serve as the basis for the sustained and continuous depreciation of the domestic currency. In the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), the EOP rate for all currencies in the Zone depreciated with the exception of the Nigeria Naira at end-june, The Guinean Franc marginally depreciated by 0.08 percent while the Gambian Dalasi, the Sierra Leonean Leone, the Ghana Cedis and the Liberian dollar depreciated by 0.34 percent, 0.98 percent, 2.23 percent and 9.05 percent, respectively. The Nigeria Naira appreciated by 0.05 percent. Year-on-year comparisons of currencies in the WAMZ revealed that only the Nigeria Naira appreciated by 0.03 percent while all other currencies in the zone experienced depreciation (see Table 2). Financial Market Developments For the month ended June, 2018, the Government of Liberia (GoL) T-bill operations amounted to a net withdrawal of L$3.5 million, implying that the CBL, on behalf of the government of Liberia, issued L$69.1 million and redeemed L$65.6 million in the reporting month at a discount rate, of 2.90 percent representing a yield of 4 basis points lower than the yield recorded a month ago. Banking Sector Developments The banking industry s performance at end-june, 2018 was promising as shown by key financial soundness indicators. Capital adequacy ratio 8 5

8 (CAR) and liquidity ratio continue to be far beyond the minimum requirements of 10.0 percent and 15.0 percent, respectively. Provisional banking sector data at end-june, 2018 revealed a liquidity ratio of 40.7 percent, compared with 41.5 percent as recorded at end-may, The Sector s CAR preliminarily settled at 27.2 percent compared with the preceding month. Non-performing loans ratio expanded by 17.8 percent to 9.6 percent compared with the figure reported at end-may, In absolute term, the value of non-performing loan grew by 0.4 percent at end-june, 2018, mainly due to creditors confidence to service their loan obligations. FISCAL DEVELOPMENTS Revenue (including Grants) & Expenditures GoL actual fiscal operation in June resulted into a surplus of US$5.4 million compared also with a surplus of US$10.4 million May The slowdown in the surplus recorded in June 2018 was on account of 7.1 percent decline in revenue and grants and a 9.9 percent increase public expenditure. Tax and non-tax revenue & grants accounted for 92.1 percent and 7.9 percent of total revenue and grants during the period under review, respectively. Actual revenue and grants reduced below budgetary projections by US$ 17.9 million during the period under consideration. Recurrent expenditure (including loans and interest payments) and capital expenditure accounted for 99.6 percent and 0.4 percent of total public expenditure, respectively, for the month of June, Liberia s public debt stock for June, 2018 amounted to US$942.6 million, indicating an increase by US$4.6 million (0.5 percent) against the stock of US$938.0 million recorded at end-may, Domestic and external debt stocks constituted 28.2 percent and 71.8 percent of Liberia s total public debt stock at end-june, 2018, respectively (See Table below). EXTERNAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS Merchandise Trade Merchandise trade performance at end-june 2018 showed relative improvement. Net trade balance resulted in a deficit of US$50.2 million, a much-improved deficit when compared with the previous month revised deficit of US$53.4 million. The improvement in trade balance for the month was basically a result of declines in both export earnings and import payments Table 1. Imports (FOB) Statistics on import payments during the month of June 2018 showed that payments declined by 16.8 percent to US$76.3 million, from US$91.8 million reported in the previous month. All commodity composition of imports contributed to the fall in payments, but Minerals, Fuel, Lubricants and Food & Live Animals (including animals and vegetable oil) were the major contributing factors to the decline in payments for imports. Exports Preliminary statistics on export earnings during the month of June 2018 showed a decrease of 31.6 percent. Earnings slumped to US$26.2 million, from a revised US$38.3 million recorded at end-may The decrease in export earnings during the month was mainly driven by falls in earnings from mineral (especially gold) which has tended to be a major export commodity and rubber. Receipt from mineral fell by over 50 percent owing to slowdown in mining activities during the month, while that from rubber declined by 12.2 percent due to low production from all the major rubber producers. Gross Foreign Reserves /1 The month-on-month CBL gross FX reserve at end-june 2018 remained relatively stable (only rising modestly) relative to the previous month. Gross foreign reserve climbed by 0.8 percent to US$382.6 million, from US$379.5 million at the end of the preceding month due largely to reductions in the Bank s net liabilities to general government and commercial banks. In term of months of imports, CBL gross forex reserve at end-june, 2018 reflects 3.6 months. /1 Gross International Reserve is being calculated by taking the CBL liquid foreign assets less net liquid liabilities to government and commercial banks plus SDR and Reserve Tranche. 6 7