Weekly Pan African Monitor. Equity Research Market Indicators News Updates

Transcription

1 September 3rd 2018

2 Equities Index Level Market Cap ($bn) W/W Return (Local) Return (Local) BRVM: BRVM 10* % -1% 1x 2.2x 5.7% Egypt: EGX 30 16, % 5.1% 13.9x 2.5x 4.9% Ghana: GSE Composite 2, % 7.9% 24.6x 2.4x 0.7% Kenya: Nairobi All Share % -2.1% 13.5x 2.1x 4.7% Mauritius: SEMDEX 2, % 0.7% 24.3x x na Morocco: CFG 25 24, % -7.1% na na na Nigeria:Nigeria All Share 34, % -11.3% 9.7x x 4.7% South Africa: JSE All Share 58, % -1.3% 18.5x 2.1x 4.0% Tunisia: Tunis Index 8, % 33.4% 21.8x 3.0x 1.8% Zimbabwe: Industrial % 21.8% 24.9x 2.2x 14.6% Frontier Markets % -15.0% 11.8x 1.8x 3.6% Emerging Markets 1, % -8.8% 12.8x 1.6x 2.9% Movement of the major equities indices across Africa 1.3 P/E Valuation P/B Movements in the Global Indices Vs Africa September 3, 2018 Dividend Yield Nigeria South Africa Ghana Kenya BRVM FM 0.5 EM Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 S BGN Curncy MSCI World S&P FTSE 100 MSCI Africa Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Currencies (Vs USD) Spot Rate WTD Return MTD Return Return 6M Forward 12M Forward Egypt EGP:Pound % -0.4% -0.7% Ghana GHS:Cedi % -6.6% Kenya KES: Shilling % 0.0% 2.5% na na Mauritius MUR: Rupee % -0.1% -2.2% na na Morocco MAD: Dirham % 0.0% -% na na Nigeria NGN: Naira % 0.0% -0.7% South Africa ZAR: Rand % -0.9% -16.5% Tanzania TZS: Shilling 2, % -0.3% -2.2% na na Tunisia TND: Dinar % -0.6% -11.0% na na Zimbabwe ZWL: Dollar na na na 105 Brent Crude 1500 Gold 460 Copper 1 Comdty 55 BGN Curncy 1 COMB Comdty Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Bond Yield Annual Latest GDP External Macro/Fixed Income (10 yr) Inflation Real Return Policy Rate GDP ($'bn) Growth Reserves ($'bn) Egypt 15.3% 13.5% 1.8% 17.8% % 44.3 Ghana 7.7% 9.6% -2.0% 17.0% % 5.0 Kenya 12.4% 4.0% 8.4% 9.0% % 9.2 Mauritius 5.4% 1.7% 3.7% 3.5% % 6.5 Morocco na 2.1% na 3.2% % na Nigeria 15.1% 1% 4.0% 14.0% % 45.9 South Africa na 5.1% na 6.5% % 50.5 Tanzania 14.4% 3.3% 1% 12.0% % 5.3 Tunisia 7.6% 7.4% 0.2% 6.8% % na Zimbabwe 17.4% 4.3% 13.1% na % 0.4 *MXFM Index: MSCI FM Frontier Markets **MXEF Index: MSCI Emerging Market Index

3 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 BRVM BRVM * AFRICA ** BRVM Ivorian cocoa farmers expect abundant main crop after heavy rainfall: Above-average rainfall throughout Ivory Coast s main cocoa growing regions last week boosted the development of pods on trees, farmers said on Monday, raising hopes for abundant October-to-March main crop harvests. In the centre-western region of Daloa, which produces a quarter of the top grower s output, farmers said cocoa trees were laden with big pods to be harvested over the next two or three weeks. Data collected by showed that rainfall in Daloa, which includes the town of Bouafle, was 66.3 millimetres (mm) last week, 38.8 mm above the fiveyear average. In the western region of Soubre, at the heart of the cocoa belt, farmers said they expected the main crop to be long and plentiful % % Corporate News No corporate news Bank of Africa/Niger 4, % Societe Multinationale de Bitumes 20, % Uniwax SA 3, % Comptoir Francais Afrique % Onatel SA 4, % Nestle Cote d'iv oire 1, % Shell Cote D Iv oire % PALMCI 3, % Bernabe 2, % NEI CI % *BRVM 10 Index

4 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Egypt Egypt's tourism revenues jump 77 percent to $4.781 in H1 2018: Egypt s tourism revenues jumped 77 percent in the first half of 2018 to around $4.8 billion compared with the same period last year, a government official told. The number of tourists who visited Egypt in that time jumped 41 percent to around 5 million tourists, added the official who asked to remain anonymous because they are not authorized to speak to the media. The tourism sector is one of the country s main sources of foreign currency but has struggled since a 2011 uprising that ousted then president Hosni Mubarak. A total of 14.7 million people visited Egypt in 2010 before the uprising. EGYPT AFRICA EGYPT 16, % ,414 13, % Egyptian Electrical Cables % Six of October Dev elopment & Inv estment % ElSwedy Electric Co % Medinet Nasr Housing % Talaat Moustafa Group % Arabia Inv estments Dev elopment Financia % Arabian Cement Co % Juhayna Food Industries % Telecom Egypt Co % Ezz Steel % In a Nod to Reforms, Moody's Raises Egypt Credit Outlook: Egypt s credit outlook was raised from stable to positive by Moody s Investors Service, which cited progress in implementing a program backed by the International Monetary Fund to bolster economic growth and repair public finances. The country s long-term rating was kept at B3, six levels below investment grade. The positive outlook signals that a downgrade is currently very unlikely, Moody s said in a statement last week. Bloomberg Remittances from Egyptians abroad rise 2 percent in F/Y : Remittances from Egyptians abroad rose 2 percent to $26.5 billion in the financial year, the central bank said last week. Remittances for the previous financial year stood at $21.9 billion, it said. Egypt s fiscal year runs from July to June. Remittances have surged since Egypt floated its pound currency in late-2016 and drew hard currency back to its official banking system, drying up a then-thriving black market for dollars. Corporate News No Corporate News *EGX 30 Index

5 Ghana Ghana is considering $50bn century bond to finance infrastructure development: Ghana is considering a century bond worth $50 billion as part of the West African nation s plan to secure long-term funding to build critical infrastructure for industrial development, its leader said. The Ministry of Finance and economists in Ghana are looking at floating a $50 billion century bond. This will provide us with the resources to finance our infrastructural and industrial development, President Nana Akufo-Addo said during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. 0.2 Feb-17 Dec-16 Oct-16 Aug-16 Jun-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Apr-18 Feb-18 GHANA AFRICA GHANA % % Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd 5 0.2% Aug-18 Corporate News MTN Ghana raises $238.5 million in IPO, misses target: MTN Group said last week its Ghana unit raised 4 billion cedis ($238.5 million) in the largest initial public offering in the West African country, but failed to reach its target. Telecoms operator MTN had hoped to raise 3.47 billion cedis from selling about 4.63 billion shares representing up to 35 percent of the issued shares of MTN Ghana at 0.75 cedis per share, it said in a statement. It only sold 3 billion shares. Aker Energy to start Ghana drilling in Oct, eyes development plan in 2019: Norwegian oil firm Aker Energy will delay submitting a plan for development of its block off Ghana until early next year in order to first complete appraisal drilling, expected to start in October, its chief executive said last week. The unlisted firm, controlled by Norwegian billionaire Kjell Inge Roekke, bought a 50-percent stake in Ghana s Deepwater Tano Cape Three Points block from Hess for $100 million in February.. CAL Bank Ltd % Ecobank Transnational Inc 0-8.7% Societe Generale Ghana Ltd 1-4.1% Standard Chartered Bank Ghana Ltd % urce: Bloomberg, United Capital Research *GSE Composite Index

6 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Kenya KENYA AFRICA Kenya imposes 16 percent VAT on petroleum products, defying lawmakers: Kenya s revenue authority imposed a 16 percent value added tax on all petroleum products on Saturday, defying lawmakers who had voted earlier this week to delay the levy for two years due to concerns about the cost of living. Parliament s decision last week to postpone the introduction of the tax on fuels, which had been pushed back several times previously, was seen as a blow to government efforts to raise state revenues. Kenya inflation at 4.04 percent in August: Kenya s inflation fell slightly to 4.04 percent year-on-year in August from 4.35 percent a month earlier, the statistics office said last week.. KENYA % % TransCentury Ltd % TPS Eastern Africa Ltd % East African Cables Ltd % Kenya Electricity Generating Co Ltd 6.6 % Corporate News Safaricom faces $4.5mn fine for failing to connect small firms: Kenya s biggest telecoms operator Safaricom faces a fine of 0.2 percent of its gross revenue for the last financial year, equivalent to 449 million shillings ($4.47 million), documents from the regulator reviewed by showed. The Communications Authority of Kenya imposed the fine on the company, part-owned by South Africa s Vodacom and Britain s Vodafone, for failing to connect smaller firms. Safaricom denies the accusation and has secured a temporary suspension of the fine pending a hearing before an industry tribunal, the documents showed. If confirmed, the fine would be the largest ever imposed by Kenya s telecoms regulator. Pan Africa Insurance Holdings Ltd % Equity Group Holdings Ltd/Kenya % National Bank of Kenya Ltd % Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd % Carbacid Inv estments Ltd % *Nairobi All Share Index

7 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Mauritius Mauritius tops India's FDI charts again in FY18: Mauritius remained the top source of foreign direct investment into India in followed by Singapore, whereas total FDI stood at USD billion in the financial year, a marginal rise over the USD billion recorded in the previous fiscal, according to RBI data. While FDI from Mauritius totaled USD billion as against USD billion in the previous year, inflows from Singapore rose to USD 9.27 billion from USD 6.52 billion. Even as FDI from Netherlands declined marginally to USD 2.67 billion as against USD 3.23 billion in the year-ago period. EconomicTimesIndia Corporate News MAURITIUS AFRICA MAURITIUS % % No corporate news Mauritius Dev elopment Inv est Trust Co Lt 4.9 % MCB Group Ltd % SBM Holdings Ltd 6.6 -% POLICY Ltd % Terra Mauricia Ltd % Cim Financial Serv ices Ltd % *SEMDEX

8 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Nigeria Nigeria's presidency rebuffs landmark oil reform bill in current form: Nigeria s presidency rebuffed a landmark oil industry reform law because of issues with its current form, the executive said last week, marking a setback for plans to reinvigorate investment in Africa s largest crude producing nation. The presidency said it had sent the Petroleum Industry Governance Bill (PIGB), dealing in part with the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, back to the National Assembly last month. This legislation forms a section of the broader Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB). 0.4 NIGERIA AFRICA NIGERIA 34, % ,322 33, % Portland Paints & Products Nigeria PLC % AIICO Insurance PLC 17.1% PZ Cussons Nigeria PLC % Transnational Corp of Nigeria PLC % NEM Insurance PLC % Ikeja Hotel PLC % First Aluminium Nigeria PLC % GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Nigeria PLC % Forte Oil PLC % Skye Bank PLC % Nigeria's central bank fines four banks, tells them to refund $8.1bn MTN illegally sent from country: Nigeria s central bank has fined four Nigerian banks for their part in helping South African telecoms giant MTN Group Ltd illegally send $8.134 billion out of the country, in breach of foreign exchange regulations, it said last week. The Central Bank of Nigeria has also ordered the banks to refund the money MTN transferred, it said on its official Twitter account. Standard Chartered PLC was fined 2.4 billion naira ($7.86 million), Stanbic IBTC Bank PLC 1.8 billion naira, Citibank 1.2 billion naira and Diamond Bank PLC 250 million naira, the central bank said. Nigeria and China to sign agreement on $328mn: Nigeria and China are to sign an agreement on $328mn to be provided by Chinese Exim bank for technology infrastructure, Nigeria s presidency said over the weekend. The bank facility is for the development of the country s telecommunications network. Nigeria s President Muhammadu Buhari arrived in China on Saturday ahead of the two-day Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which will begin on Monday.. Corporate news No corporate news *Nigeria All Share Index

9 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 South Africa 1.4 South Africa withdraws land expropriation bill passed in 2016: South Africa s parliament withdrew an expropriation bill it passed in 2016 that allowed the state to make compulsory purchases of land to redress racial disparities in ownership, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) said last week. The thrust of the bill, which had not been signed into law, has been overtaken by a proposal by the ANC to change the constitution to allow the expropriation of land without compensation. 0.5 SA AFRICA SA 58, % ,777 53, % Group Fiv e Ltd/South Africa % Niv eus Inv estments Ltd % Super Group Ltd/South Africa 3, % Trustco Group Holdings Ltd 1, % Lonmin PLC % South Africa's Absa PMI falls to 13-month low in August: South Africa s seasonally adjusted Absa Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 13- month low in August driven by large declines in new sales, business activity and also possibly by talk over land reforms, a survey showed. Corporate news South Africa's RCL Foods annual profits rise 50 percent: South African poultry producer RCL Foods full-year profits rose 50 percent buoyed by improved performance of several units, including the chicken, pet food and pies categories and lower interest costs, the firm said last week. Diluted headline earning per share (HEPS) rose to 94.5 cents for the year ended June 2018 compared with 63 cents in the previous year. HEPS is the main profit gauge in South Africa which strips out certain one-off items. ArcelorMittal South Africa Ltd % Av eng Ltd % MTN Group Ltd 8, % Net 1 UEPS Technologies Inc 10, % EOH Holdings Ltd 4, % *JSE All Share Index

10 United Capital Securities Trading Asset Management Trustees Investment Banking Research Disclaimer United Capital Plc Research (UCR) notes are prepared with due care and diligence based on publicly available information as well as analysts knowledge and opinion on the markets and companies covered; albeit UCR neither guarantees its accuracy nor completeness as the sole investment guidance for the readership. Therefore, neither United Capital (UCAP) nor any of its associates or subsidiary companies and employees thereof can be held responsible for any loss suffered from the reliance on this report as it is not an offer to buy or sell securities herein discussed. Please note this report is a proprietary work of UCR and should not be reproduced (in any form) without the prior written consent of Management. UCAP is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and its subsidiary, United Capital Securities Limited is a dealing member of the Nigerian Stock Exchange. For enquiries, contact United Capital Plc, 12th Floor, UBA House, 57 Marina, Lagos. United Capital Plc 2015.*