THE WEEKLY ISSUE TH DECEMBER 2017 THE IMF COMPLETES THE SECOND REVIEW OF EGYPT S REFORM PROGRAM IN THIS ISSUE

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1 THE IMF COMPLETES THE SECOND REVIEW OF EGYPT S REFORM PROGRAM The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the second review of Egypt s reform program. The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw a USD2.03 billion tranche of the USD12 billion Extended Fund Facility, bringing total disbursements released to about USD6.08 billion. The IMF praised Egypt s economic reforms, which curbed inflation levels, while calling for further reforms, including energy subsidy that is critical for achieving the program s fiscal objectives. The Fund also sees that implementing tax policy reforms and modernizing tax and customs administration are needed over the medium term to create fiscal space for much-needed investment in human capital and infrastructure. The IMF specifically praised Egypt s central bank that managed to reverse high inflation, which was the main risk to macroeconomic stability, by tightening monetary policy early in the year. The IMF upgraded Egypt s economic growth forecast to 5.5% in FY 2018/19 from 5.3% in the first review. Egypt s reform program is yielding encouraging results. The economy is showing welcome signs of stabilization, with GDP growth recovering, inflation moderating, fiscal consolidation remaining on track, and international reserves reaching their highest level since 2011 David Lipton IMF First Deputy Managing Director IMF Press Release No. 17/ th December 2017 IN THIS ISSUE Al-Sisi Inaugurates New Projects Electricity Interconnection Project With Saudi Arabia Remittances Rise By 20% CBE Issues New Monetary Policy Report Number Of Tourists To Egypt Increases 1

2 AL-SISI INAUGURATES NEW PROJECTS President Abdel-Fattah Al-Sisi inaugurated different development projects in the East Suez Canal development zone in northern Ismailia. These projects included: A tunnel in northern Ismailia, connecting Egypt s northwestern city of Salloum to Al-Awja road in North Sinai. A tunnel in southern Port Said, connecting Salloum to Rafah city in North Sinai. Two floating bridges in Ismailia and Qantara. The second phase of the fish farm project over an area of 7,500 feddans. The completion of the construction of the tunnels in less than a year and half, instead of the initial estimate of 12 years is a remarkable achievement President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi Ahram Online 24 th December 2017 The Electricity Minister, Mohamed Shaker, announced that Egypt is in talks with Saudi Arabia for an electricity interconnection project at a total investment cost of USD1.56 billion and with a capacity of 3000 megawatts. The first phase of operations in the project is set to start in Shaker also declared that Egypt plans to generate 42% of its electricity from renewable energy by The Electricity Ministry is focusing on the strengthening of Egypt s electricity grid to allow for the import and export of electricity through interconnection projects Mohamed Shaker The Electricity Minister Ahram Online 19 th December 2017 Remittances increased by around 20% since Egypt floated the Egyptian Pound in November 2016 till October 2017 reaching USD24.2 billion from around USD20.2 billion during the same period a year earlier (November 2015-October 2016) 2

3 The Central Egypt (CBE) s Monetary Policy Report for September 2017 revealed that the outlook for average annual headline inflation remains consistent with achieving the CBE s target of 13% (±3%) in Q and single digits thereafter. According to the report, strong favorable base effects are expected to accelerate disinflation, especially between November 2017 and February However, there are several risks surrounding the baseline inflation outlook, notably the evolution of inflation expectations, demand-side pressures as well as the timing and/or magnitude of any fiscal consolidation measures. Total number of tourists visited Egypt during January-November 2017 recorded 7.5 million, marking a 54.7% increase compared to the same period last year. The Egyptian tourism sector is showing signs of recovery especially with agreeing on the resumption of flights between Moscow and Cairo next February. 3

4 EGYPT AT GLANCE EXCHANGE RATES TH DEC TH NOV TH DEC USD EUR STERLING POUND Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 EGP per USD EGP per Euro EGP per Pound Sterling STOCK MARKET 16,000 14,000 14,870 12, TH DEC TH NOV TH DEC 16 10,000 EGX30 14,870 14,721 14,223 12,251 7,464 8,000 6,000 EGX ,000 2,000 EGX100 1,961 1,956 1,807 1, T-BILLS AUCTION CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND MAJOR COMPONENTS AUCTION DATE 24 TH DEC 17 MATURITY (DAYS) 91 AVERAGE YIELD (%) WEIGHT IN BASKET % NOV 2016 NOV 2017 (INDEX) (JANUARY 2010=100) Y/Y 21 ST DEC HEADLINE- ALL ITEMS 100% % 24 TH DEC FOOD AND BEVERAGES 39.92% % 21 ST DEC TOBACCO AND RELATED PRODUCTS 2.19% % INTEREST RATES CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY AND GAS 5.41% 18.37% % 11.80% OVERNIGHT DEPOSIT RATE OVERNIGHT LENDING RATE CORRIDOR RATE *AT JULY 2017 **AT MAY 2017 GLOBAL COMMODITY PRICES CURRENT* 18.75% 19.75% 19.25% PREVIOUS** 16.75% 17.75% 17.25% FURNISHINGS AND HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT MEDICAL CARE TRANSPORTATION COMMUNICATIONS RECREATION AND CULTURE EDUCATION 3.77% 6.33% 5.68% 3.12% 2.43% 4.63% % 14.47% 19.46% 10.97% 40.42% 19.58% BRENT CRUDE* GOLD** TH DEC TH NOV TH DEC , HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES 4.43% 3.73% % 27.65% WHEAT*** *USD/BARELL **USD/OUNCE SOURCE: BLOOMBERG **USD/BU

5 ALEXBANK RESEARCH... SHARING KNOWLEDGE 5 Egyptian Museum, Cairo, Egypt Copyright Notice. The Weekly is a publication of ALEXBANK. No part of this publication may be reproduced or duplicated without the prior consent of ALEXBANK. This publication constitutes a summary of published news, quotes and economic indicators. This material does not constitute analytical economic research nor should be treated as such. All charts and graphs are from publicly available sources or proprietary data. Any views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the opinion of ALEXBANK. The news, views and quotes within this publication are gathered from sources deemed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. ALEXBANK does not make any guarantee to the accuracy or reliability of such information. AlexBank shall not be liable for any losses or damages incurred or suffered as a result of using its publications in part or in their entirety.

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