UCSB Economic Forecast Project

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Lucy Henry
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1 UCSB Economic Forecast Project Peter Rupert, Ph.D. Professor of Economics Chairman, Department of Economics Director, UCSB Economic Forecast Project Associate Director, LAEF University of California, Santa Barbara Economic Vitality Corporation July 25, 2012

2 long-run growth source of optimism Log Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted gdp trend Cooley Rupert Economic Snapshot; Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Year

3 uncertain environment... debt banks fed state and local budgets

4 Publicly Held Federal Debt as a Percentage GDP Percentage change from previous peak, Seasonally Adjusted cycle 1981 cycle 1990 cycle 2001 cycle Current cycle Cooley Rupert Economic Snapshot; Source: U.S. Department of Treasury & U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Quarters from previous peak

5 banks

6 fed

7 long-run growth source of optimism Log Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted gdp trend Cooley Rupert Economic Snapshot; Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Year

8 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong...

9 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong... and the other half are not right!

10 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong... and the other half are not right! local forecasts even more problematic

11 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong... and the other half are not right! local forecasts even more problematic not many of them

12 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong... and the other half are not right! local forecasts even more problematic not many of them data is sparse

13 on forecasting... difficult half the forecasts are wrong... and the other half are not right! local forecasts even more problematic not many of them data is sparse longer lags

14 economic forecast project collect and maintain useful data for the community predict where we are today: nowcasting use high frequency information to help assess our economic environment

15 economic forecast project collect and maintain useful data for the community predict where we are today: nowcasting use high frequency information to help assess our economic environment google trends/insights

17 google this Search Index 55 Predicting Visitor Spending in SB County Using Google Trends $ Billions Visitor Spending - Santa Barbara County Google Search "Santa Barbara Hotels" Source: Dean Ruynyan Associates & Google Insights

18 long-run growth source of optimism Log Real Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted gdp trend Cooley Rupert Economic Snapshot; Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Year

19 sluggish non-residential investment housing markets...firming...but still sluggish note: housing sector is local

21 Number of Home Sales or Foreclosures introduction uncertainty forecasting housing labor market housing 90 City of San Luis Obispo Home Sales Foreclosures Source: DataQuick

22 Number of Home Sales or Foreclosures introduction uncertainty forecasting housing labor market housing 160 City of Paso Robles Home Sales Foreclosures Source: DataQuick

23 $1,600,000 house prices Median Home Prices Santa Barbara County by City $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 Santa Barbara Goleta Solvang $400,000 $200,000 $ Santa Maria Lompoc Guadalupe Source: DataQuick

24 house prices $2,000,000 Single Family Home Prices Santa Barbara $1,800,000 $1,600,000 $1,400,000 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 $400,000 Riviera Cielito Eucalyptus Hill Samarkand Hidden Valley Hitchcock Westside Eastside $200,000 $ Source: Zillow Home Value Index

25 prices $1,000,000 Median Home Prices San Luis Obispo County by City $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 San Luis Obispo Morro Bay Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Paso Robles $200,000 $100,000 $ Source: DataQuick

26 house prices $1,000,000 Median Housing Prices $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 Santa Barbara County $411,540 Ventura County $427,320 San Luis Obispo County $360,670 $308,050 CA $0 Source: California Association of Realtors

27 labor markets... and labor markets continue to struggle

14 12 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Recession 10 8 6 CA US 4 2 SLO County 0 1976 1981

28 14 12 Unemployment Rates (Not Seasonally Adjusted) Recession CA US 4 2 SLO County Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Department

29 Google Search "Jobs" v. Unemployment Rate Santa Barbara County Searches Unemp. Rate Source: Google Trends & CA Employment Development Department

30 550 Google "Jobs" (filtered) v. Unemployment Rate Search: "Jobs" "Jobs & Education" Santa Barbara County Unemp. Rate Source: Google Trends & CA Employment Development Department

31 Number Employed 16,000 Highest Employment by Occupation San Luis Obispo County Mean Salary 14,000 $100,000 12,000 $80,000 10,000 $60,000 8,000 6,000 $40,000 4,000 $20,000 2,000 0 $0 Management Healthcare Construction Education & Production Sales Office & Transportation Retail Food Prep & Practitioner & Extraction Training Admin & Material Salespersons Serving Moving Source: CA Employment Development Dept.

32 Most Job Openings Job Openings San Luis Obispo County Median Salary 2,500 $90,000 $80,000 2,000 1,500 1, $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 0 Retail Salespersons Source: CA Employment Development Dept. Waiters and Waitresses Cashiers Combined Food Farmworkers Registered Preparation & Serving Workers and Laborers Nurses Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession, & Coffee Shop Personal and Home Care Aides $0

33 summary extremely slow recovery housing sector: sluggish growth labor market: treading water Thank you!

Update to Long Range Socio-Economic Projections. San Luis Obispo Council of Governments

Project Report Update to Long Range Socio-Economic Projections Prepared for San Luis Obispo Council of Governments Submitted by Economics Research Associates, an AECOM company (ERA) May 6, 2009 Revised