International Spring Makers Conference, Wire 2016, Düsseldorf. Name of country 1

Transcription

1 Name of country 1

2 Spring Manufacturing Sector in Finland - Number of manufacturers - Cold coiled springs 6 - Hot coiled springs 1 - Total turnover approx. 18 million - Employees approx. 90 Main challenges - Changes in production structure in Finland - Sanctions against Russia Name of Finland country 2

3 Production Volume of the Technology Industry in Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries / Macrobond, Statistics Finland Turnover of the Technology Industry in Finland Source: The Federation of Finnish Technology Industries / Macrobond, Statistics Finland Name of Finland country 3

4 The situation of the spring industry in FRANCE SPRING MARKET Turnover 2015/2014: From -10% to +5% with an average of -5% Forecast 2016: 2016 Q1 versus 2015 Q1 : Lower level of orders Forecast 2016 / 2015: stability Pressure on selling prices Rebates requested on stainless steel parts Strong push for shorter delivery time Internal markets are stable, export is progressing Few markets with positive trend: Aircraft industry, pharmaceutical industry, automotive (export) Depressed markets: Transportation, oil and gas, energy, agriculture FRANCE

5 GDP 2015/2014: + 1,1 forecast 2016/2015: +1,5% Investment: Financial incentives have been extended till end of Companies are investing for modernization >>>Investment evolution: Unemployment: We are close to 3,6 millions unemployed persons and we are still facing recruiting problems Labor cost: From january 2016, part of medical insurance must be paid by companies FRANCE

6 business climate supplying industry in Germany current situation turnover increase from 2014 to % expected for % Germany 6

7 International Spring Makers Conference, Wire 2016, Düsseldorf car production German brand / 14 +/- % 15/ 14 +/- % domestic abroad domestic abroad domestic abroad Audi ,8 3,4 BMW ,2 7,5 Daimler ,7 44,9 Ford ,0 Opel ,1 90,3 Porsche ,2 Volkswagen ,8-5,5 total ,9 1,0 Germany 7

8 customer segment of German spring industry Germany 8

9 Inquiry of business development VDFI members reporting period 2014 to 2015 development of turnover in reporting period in % 3.6 export quota from turnover in reporting period in % 32.3 turnover expectancy for the next 3 month in % 3.5 volume of orders in month 5.8 capacity utilization in % 78.6 change in number of employees in % 2.2 temporary stuff in % 3.5 number of stuff ill in % 4.9 business development in the next 6 month apple 3 business development in the next 12 month apple 3 1= very good..6= very bad Germany 9

10 Forecasts for the year 2016 The 2015 final data are not yet available, although 2015 is expected be closed with a slight increase in sales compared to 2014 For the first quarter 2016 are expected to increase in sales of around 3% over the same period of The year will end with a lower increase. The cost of raw materials is expected to slightly decrease The sales prices should remain stable. The number of employees is expected to remain stable. In 2016 the companies plan to make investments in technology Italy 2

11 Turnover Euro DefiniJve Forecast N Plants >10,00 Mln Sales 277,50 340,00 318,80 357,10 379,18 396,86 Employees N Plants > 6,00 Mln Sales 93,91 92,75 79,50 93,07 97,57 89,42 Employees N Plants > 3,00 Mln Sales 100,47 100,80 107,00 120,23 110,62 112,84 Employees N Plants > 1,00 Mln Sales 79,05 70,36 68,70 72,98 67,23 70,58 Employees N Plants < 1,00 Mln Sales 65,00 63,00 72,50 66,00 67,98 70,15 Employees Total cold coiled springs N Plants Sales 615,93 666,91 646,50 709,38 722,58 739,85 Employees Hot coiled springs N Plants Sales 44,9 46,5 45,0 44,1 55,0 56,1 Employees Italy 1

12 Market information Poland The Poland economy forecasting positive position in 2016 year. 1.1 Economic growth The Poland economy estimated % of 2016 year. 1.2 Unemployment The unemployment rate is forecasted % in 2016 year. (10.3 % in 2015; 13,4 % in 2014) 1.3 Inflation The inflation rate is estimated about 1.0 %. 1.4 Consumer Price Index The Poland CPI will be estimated 1.0%. Name of country 12

13 1.5 Economic market Inflation will be come this year instead of deflation which last two years. Most of export are rely on the Western Europe (75%), Poland economic situation is not free from EU market. Due to the decrease unemployment, the labor cost will be increase this year. OECD will be recommend a rise in the rate of interest due to the inflation. New government party will be change the market policy compare last 8 years regime. Many kind of new tax will de burden for people. Even though the economic situation is positive, the potential risk still remain as like Eurozone issue, Russia trade, emerging market suffering. DAEWON Europe Sp.z.o.o., Lublin Name of country 13

14 Trends Automotive industry is the pulling power right now (Farming equipment still very low on spring demand For trucks the increase is modest and will remain low next coming 4 year Current Swedish Business Environment Sweden had people arriving as refugees or migrants during To put these in employment is a gigantic challenge The industry, which has traditionally been an off set for migrants (after the Balkan war 20 years ago and before that), has a completely different situation as in the 1990 s. During the last 10 years employments has been transferred out of the industry sector. Basically, the jobs are not there anymore. This puts the government in a pinch. No easy solution this time. However, as an industry the automation trend is stronger than ever Daily news about robotics and development within the automation industry. And Sweden is an automated country out of tradition. Still negative REPO-rent from the Central Bank of Sweden (Sveriges Riksbank) at -0.50%.

15 No increase in orders Incoming orders for the Swedish technical industry remain on the same level as previous quarter 2015 The number of Swedish technical companies that states that the orders have increased (+) vs. Decreased (-), in comparance to previous quarter. The chart shows the net difference (increase decrease). Source: Teknikföretagens Konjunkturbarometer

16 GDP Latest: 3.5% for 2015Q4 Previous: 3.4% for 2015Q3 Next Release: May 26, 2016 Industrial Production Latest: 3.2% for Jan Previous: 3.4% for Dec Next Release: Apr 07, 2016 Foreign Trade Latest: bil for Jan Previous: bil for Dec Next Release: Apr 21, 2016 Unemployment Latest: 20.9% for 2015Q4 Previous: 21.2% for 2015Q3 Next Release: Apr 28, 2016 Spain 16

17 8th INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF SPRING INDUSTRY THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE SPRING INDUSTRY IN Switzerland Situation of the Swiss economy EUR/CHF exchange rate COMMENT The export industry and tourism is still feeling the impact Original growth rate of the economy of 2,1% for 2015 has ended on a level of 0,9% Expected growth rate 2016 is 1,4% and 1,8% for 2017 Unemployment rate has first time overtaken Germany, export oriented companies will shift production abroad Notes Source: Financen.ch The export oriented spring makers will have an important negative impact onto turnover and profitability speaker 17

18 8th INTERNATIONAL CONGRESS OF SPRING INDUSTRY THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF THE SPRING INDUSTRY IN Switzerland General measures: - Careful evaluation of investments - Increasing monthly working hours (+5 %) - Reducing of overhead cost (marketing, IT, ) - Optimisation of purchasing portfolio - Reduction of employees Structural measures: - Review product portfolio - Shifting of production capacities abroad - Increased lean-management approach - Adjustment of organisational structure (lean overhead) speaker 18

19 Economical situation and spring business in the UK 2015 was a mixed year for manufacturing with some companies doing well, a large number of general engineering companies consolidating or closing and the majority standing still. The GDP has continued to grow at an annual rate of around 2,1% At the end of 2014 it was at the level before the financial crisis. The UK motor industry remains strong with Jaguar Land Rover, Nissan and Honda General engineering demand has been good if not spectacular The Pound has risen in value over the last 18 months: >>> The imported steel has reduced in price >>> The profit on any sales made in Euros has been hit hard Current rate of unemployment is around 5,1% at 1,6 Million of a population of around 64,88 million United Kingdom

20 The UK is experiencing a large gap in the skills market This is a result of the move away from training some 10/15 years ago and exaggerated by an ageing population The national living wage was imposed on the 1st of April 2016 at 9,07 / hour for people over the age of 25 and 8,44 for people between 21 and 24 General wage increase: 1 to 2% if at all Inflation has been kept down due to the low oil and energy prices, but this could change quite quickly because of the current situation in the middle east. On the 23rd of June the UK will vote for our remaining a part of the EU The current view for the remainder of 2016 is undecided and to some extend will depend on what happens in June. Although the rate of both European and world investment in the UK shows no real sign of reducing. United Kingdom