Global Trade Flow Index

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1 Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index Q4 - January

3 Global trade in Q4 rose.% q-o-q; a slightly slower growth over the previous quarter due to government tightening measures in the major economies Key developments Total trade- top 3 countries (billion usd) Trade volumes continued to grow in the last quarter of globally, although at a slower pace than in the previous quarter Post the credit crisis, cautious cutting of debts along with large amounts of liquidity has led to lower domestic spending in the US, while a weaker dollar coupled with a rebound in the global economy has produced a good recovery in US exports in Q , 8, 3, -, The Chinese economy stabilized in the last quarter of due to government tightening measures, resulting in reduction in its exports by % on q-o-q basis In the Eurozone, easier labor-market conditions, subdued inflation and a decline in the household savings rate from its crisis peak bode well for consumer spending 8 4-7, -, -7, The outlook on the Indian economy is positive due to increase in its trade volume by 9% on q-o-q basis, as government authorities in India have announced the stimulus packages to prop up economic growth Q4 8 Q 9 Q 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q Q Q3 Q4 E Volume (billion USD) Growth (%) -, Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org,., Deloitte Research's fourth quarter issue of the Global Economic Outlook, Logest forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

5 US regained its position and became the leading economy in the fourth quarter of on the basis of improving exports Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q4- RANK Q3- Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* United States China Germany Japan Netherlands France Korea United Kingdom Italy Canada Belgium Russian Federation Mexico Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

6 Indian economy moved up in Q4 due to increase in its domestic and foreign market with the rise in manufacturing and services, along with the recovery in agriculture Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q4- RANK Q3- Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* India Spain Australia Brazil Switzerland Poland Sweden Austria Czech Republic Norway Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 6

7 Inventory build up in trade markets of China led to a fall in its exports while India moved ahead because of huge growth in exports of goods & services 3rd Quarter- 4th Quarter- X- Foreign Market Growth (%) Y- Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble GDP Q4-9 6, 4,,, -4, -,,, 4, 6, 8,,, -, Germany -4, -6, -8, India Russia china X- Foreign Market Growth (%) Y- Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble GDP Q Germany china 6, 4,,, -4, -,,, 4, 6, 8,,, German economy -, stagnated in the fourth quarter and with euro still going strong, its exports of goods & services fell by % -4,q-o-q facing a competitive devaluation in their target export markets -6, -8, China s export of goods and services decelerated by.9% q-o-q because of modest inventory build-up in the US and was partly affected by the disagreement around aggressive valuation of its currency Russia India India s exports of goods & services grew by 8.7% q-oq basis, as manufacturing, services booms and agriculture begins to recover Russia s GDP grew at a moderate pace as business investment rose and exports of goods & services grew by 6% q-o-q driven by energy and raw material exports though government spending growth slowed in Q4 * As per the revised Q3 figures released by OECD * As per the Q4 figures released by OECD Source: Capgemini Analysis, Cebviews.com, Chinadaily.com, Deloite Global economic outlook,, Stats.oecd.org,, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 7

9 World trade is expected to be stable due to tightening measures taken by major economies, though the risks such as inflation in advanced economies still remain Total trade (Q ) - top 3 countries (USD bn) Key developments , 8, 3, Can Europe s sovereign debt situation lead to financial disruption of global scale? Can emerging markets manage to the complex trade-off between robust growth and rising inflation? 8 -, -7, Inflation becoming more of a serious threat in countries such as China and India, can monetary tightening be sufficient to tame rising prices? -, 4-7, Q 9 Q 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q Q Q3 Q4 Volume (billion USD) Growth (%) Q E -, There is an improvement in the global trade levels though the pace was slower than expected because of the fear of a sovereign debt crisis in EU* and inflation in developing countries. Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org,, TD Economics, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 9

3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 While Brazil s foreign trade levels have increased, it continues dependence on the US

Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, Brazil has crossed 3 GDP levels as per projections Brazil

9-7% of its domestic consumption over the past decade 3 4 6 7 8 9 Domestic Market Foreign trade Brazil s Top Trading

Netherlands Mexico 3% Belgium 3% 3% 4% 8% 6% % % 4% 4% 4% US, Germany and Japan represents more than % of Brazil's total

11 While Brazil s foreign trade levels have increased, it continues dependence on the US for more than a third of its total foreign trade Brazil GDP growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, Brazil has crossed 3 GDP levels as per projections Brazil s foreign trade has been approx. 9-7% of its domestic consumption over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade Brazil s Top Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q4 9 Country Q4 3% 4% 7% 7% % % % 4% 4% USA Germany Japan Korea UK France Italy Netherlands Mexico 3% Belgium 3% 3% 4% 8% 6% % % 4% 4% 4% US, Germany and Japan represents more than % of Brazil's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact Brazil s trade growth Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3 Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 Highly dependent on trade with Europe, Russia s GDP growth trajectory took a major hit during the global financial meltdown Russia GDP growth Projected vs.

12 Highly dependent on trade with Europe, Russia s GDP growth trajectory took a major hit during the global financial meltdown Russia GDP growth Projected vs. Actual At current growth levels, Russia has crossed GDP levels as per projections Russia was worst hit from crisis amongst the BRIC nations Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market Russia s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption in, is now /4th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade Russia s Top Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q4 9 Country Q4 % Germany 9% 8% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% Italy Turkey Netherlands France United States Poland % Finland % 4% Japan 7% 4% Korea 4% 6% 6% 7% 6% 9% 6% Germany alone constitutes /4th of Russia s total trade and more than 3/4th of its exports consisting of oil, natural gas, metals & timber Change in trade policies of European Union may impact Russia s trade growth because of its high dependence on European economies Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3 Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 India s actual GDP growth mirrors projections, while its foreign trade levels have continually expanded India GDP growth

Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, India has crossed 3 GDP levels as per projections India s foreign trade ration has been gradually

/4th of its domestic consumption over the past decade 3 4 6 7 8 9 Domestic Market Foreign trade India s Top Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q4 9 Q4 Country

13 India s actual GDP growth mirrors projections, while its foreign trade levels have continually expanded India GDP growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, India has crossed 3 GDP levels as per projections India s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached approx. /4th of its domestic consumption over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade India s Top Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q4 9 Q4 Country % % 9% 8% 7% 7% 6% USA Germany Australia Korea UK Japan Belgium % Italy 4% 4% France 4% 4% Netherlands 3% % % 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% US alone constitutes /4th of India s total trade followed by Germany and Australia Change in economic environment / trade policies of USA may impact India s trade growth Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3 Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 China has surged ahead of GDP growth projections based on strong domestic demand, while its foreign trade levels have grown more gradually China GDP growth

14 China has surged ahead of GDP growth projections based on strong domestic demand, while its foreign trade levels have grown more gradually China GDP growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, China has crossed GDP levels as per projections China s foreign trade has been approx. 7-% of its domestic consumption over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade China s Top Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q4 9 Q4 Country 7% % % % 4% 3% 3% 3% USA Japan Korea Germany Australia France UK Canada Netherlands Mexico 7% 7% % % % 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% US, Japan and Korea represent more than % of China's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact China s trade growth Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3 Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

16 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix - Country Profiles - Index - Q3 - Methodology & Base Data Files Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 6

17 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile United States General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).63 % Population 3.7 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 46, USD RANK Key Trade-related Trends / Facts One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient custom administration The domestic market exhibited slow growth, with US economy getting caught in a liquidity trap as banks, nonfinancial corporations and households were holding on to excessive amounts of cash while cutting debt A weaker dollar coupled with a rebound in the global economy has produced a good recovery in US exports in Q4 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market ,,,, -, -, -, Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Deloitte.com, Global Economic Outlook, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 7

18 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile China General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.64% Population Crore GDP per Capita (9) 6,7 USD RANK Key Trade-related Trends / Facts China s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected to international markets through its vast port facilities The Chinese economy slowed down in the last quarter of due to reduction in its exports by % on q-o-q basis partly effected by the tension between the US & China around China s own aggressive valuation of its currency China s GDP grew only by 3.6 % in Q4 due 3% drop in its exports of goods & services. The Total Trade volume has increased marginally by % in comparison with Q3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Yuan) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Cesifo-group.de, Forum-9-spotlight-A look at China, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 8

19 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Germany General information Description Values GDP 88. Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).44 % Population 8.3 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 34, USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts The German economy is heavily export-oriented economy The outlook for Germany s traditionally weak private consumption is good in light of highly favorable labor market conditions, rising real wages, still-moderate inflationary pressures and buoyant consumer confidence. Germany s GDP grew only by.4 % in Q4 on the previous quarter due to slowed domestic demand and a % drop in its exports of goods & services RANK 3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Eubusiness.com, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 9

20 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Japan General information Description Values GDP 4.6 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -.36 % Population.7 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 3,6 USD RANK 4 Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Its economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services Japan faces a weakening economy which is due to the strength of its currency and the unaggressive nature of its fiscal and monetary policies in Japan s diminishing domestic market is the result of the challenges its deflation poses, which tends to discourage consumer and business spending and it continue to depend heavily on exports Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, News.bbc.co.uk, Japan s economy, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

21 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile The Netherlands General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).9 % Population.67 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 39,4 USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of the world s best seaports, enhancing the country s connectivity to rest of the world In Q4, its GDP has rose by.% due to growth in the Domestic Consumption The total trade volume rose by 3% in Q4 due to increase in its export of goods by % and imports by 4% RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Fxstreet.com/news, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,., Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

22 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile France General information Description Values GDP 67.3 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q). % Population 6.4 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 3, USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts France, has a large and diverse industrial base. Economic growth rates in France have been steady for decades due to conservative planning of the economy French GDP growth rate dropped by.% because of withdrawal of stimulus measures, in particular While domestic demand continues to strengthen in Q4, the push from its exports faded significantly RANK 6 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Roubini.com, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

23 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Korea General information Description Values GDP 6.7 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).4 % Population 4.8 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 8, USD RANK 7 Key Trade-related Trends / Facts An extremely competitive education system and a highly skilled and motivated workforce are two key factors driving this knowledge economy South Korea relies largely upon exports to fuel the growth of its economy and in last quarter of its exports of goods & services grew by 8.% giving % push to its GDP s growth In recent years, Korea's economy moved away from the centrally planned, government-directed investment model toward a more market-oriented one Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Won) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Roubini.com, Oecdobserver.org, Korea s economy, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

24 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile United Kingdom General information Description Values GDP 8.7 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).6 % Population 6. Crore Key Trade-related Trends / Facts The UK economy continued to expand though at a slower growth rate as cuts in government spending ripple through the economy UK s domestic and export market showed a downward trend in Q4 With consumers still clutching tightly onto their cash reserves, the scope for a strong recovery in domestic demand appears limited GDP per Capita (9) 34, USD RANK 8 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions GBP) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

25 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Italy General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).33 % Population.8 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 9,9 USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts GDP growth rate fell from % in Q3 to.3% in Q4 as the positive impetus from the external sector gradually faded and the recovery in domestic demand fails to accelerate Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in value chain using latest processes & technology, but the structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs and undermines investor confidence, leading to a weak recovery in RANK 9 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Roubini.com, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.

26 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Canada General information Description Values GDP 4.9 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).69 % Population 3.3 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 38, USD RANK Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Canadian economy has slowed in H and its GDP grew by just.7% due to downturn in housing investment and slowing external demand Net exports continue to drag on account of a strong currency while domestic demand slowed due to consumer debt levels, slower wage growth and low capacity utilization Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as well as highly efficient markets but is highly dependent on the United States as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Roubini.com Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 6

27 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Belgium General information Description Values GDP. Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).6 % Population.4 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 36,8 USD RANK Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Belgium is poor in its natural resources, it imports raw materials in great quantity and processes them largely for export In Q4, its GDP growth rate slowed and domestic demand become the key driver of growth supported by a recovery in investment expenditure, with increased utilization of the spare capacity in the economy Trade growth was slow as compared to previous quarter and its exports grew by % in Q4 benefiting from a surge in demand from Germany Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Stats.oecd.org, National Bank of Belgium, Economic review, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 7

28 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Russian Federation General information Description Values GDP 34. Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3. % Population 4 Crore GDP per Capita (9), USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Russian growth stalled in late as higher inflation hit private consumption. The economy is growing at a moderate pace with moderate inflation, a nice outcome following an unusually deep recession Russian GDP rose by 3.% with an increase in its Export of goods & serv.ics by 6.% Russia s total trade volume rose by % due to increase in its export of goods by 7% RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Rouble) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Rgemonitor.com, Emerging markets monitor, sublimeoblivion., Delloit Global Economic Outlook Q4 Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 8

29 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Mexico General information Description Values GDP 7.4 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).4 % Population. Crore GDP per Capita (9) 3, USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 9% of Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 4 countries Mexico s exports saw a 3.% q-o-q increase in growth rate with US consumer and industrial demand as the main drivers of its exports Mexico s economy further grew by.%, supported by a recovering export outlook and an increase in its domestic demand RANK 3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 9

30 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile India General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.37 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Services are the major source of economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's output with less than one third of its labor force The outlook on the Indian economy is positive due to increase in its trade volume by 9% Population GDP per Capita (9) 6.6 Crore 3, USD India s GDP grew by 3.7 % in Q4 majorly due 9% rise in its exports of goods & services RANK 4 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Rupees) Growth (%) Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Delloit Global Economic Outlook Q4 Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

31 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Spain General information Description Values GDP 36.3 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).7 % Population 4. Crore GDP per Capita (9) 9,3 USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Spain, the fourth-largest economy in the euro zone and EU accounts for 7% of Spain's exports The Spanish economy grew by.7% supported by various government initiative though it is still laboring under a % unemployment rate A decline in its trade growth probably relates to the growing economic imbalance in euro zone RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

32 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Australia General information Description Values GDP 34.7 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).86 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition along with high domestic and foreign market barriers Australia's Total Trade grew by 8% by rise in government funding resulting in widening its export market volumes by % Population GDP per Capita (9).3 Crore 39,9 USD RANK 6 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Dollar) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Delloit Global Economic Outlook Q4 Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

33 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Brazil General information Description Values GDP 63.6 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).67 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts To promote trade, Brazil has a simple and transparent tariff structure and as a step towards liberalization, Brazil has signed Free Trade Agreements with developing economies to remove dependence Brazil s economy is rapidly growing, as Total Trade volume grew by 9% due to increase in its export market by 8% Population GDP per Capita (9) 9.87 Crore, USD RANK 7 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Real) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 33

34 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Switzerland General information Description Values GDP Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).8 % Population.76 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 4, USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita GDP among the highest in the world The Swiss economy has been experiencing a strong recovery, which has already pushed GDP back up to pre-crisis levels The Total Trade grew by % due to rise in its export and imports by % each RANK 8 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Franc) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 34

35 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Poland General information Description Values GDP 4.9 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).9 % Population 3.8 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 7,9 USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Unlike its Central European peers, domestic demand has driven Poland s economic rebound in and will continue to be the main growth engine in. Ongoing fiscal deterioration in Poland and external dynamics, particularly in the eurozone, pose the main risks to the growth outlook Poland s Total Trade expanded by % due to sharp rise in its foreign market by 8% RANK 9 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Poland) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

36 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Sweden General information Description Values GDP 3.47 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).7 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Swedish GDP grew by.7% in Q4 due to increase in its domestic demand and consumer spending, inventory investments and declining unemployment Due to slowdown in both exports and domestic consumption growth, the Total Trade marginally rose by % Population GDP per Capita (9).9 Crore 37, USD RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Krona) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 36

37 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Austria General information Description Values GDP 98.7 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).7 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts Austria s GDP rose marginally by.7%, along with reduction in its Exports and imports of goods and services by % each Austria s Total Trade remained constant as compared to Q3, as the volume for its Imports changed marginally and export of goods remained same Population GDP per Capita (9).8 Crore 39, USD RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 37

38 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Czech Republic General information Description Values GDP.4 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).3 % Key Trade-related Trends / Facts The Czech Republic is a highly export-oriented economy and its fortunes are largely tied to the economies of its key trade partners, particularly Germany Czech Republic s GDP rose by only.3%, as it s Total Trade dropped by 4% on q-o-q basis Population GDP per Capita (9). Crore 4,8 USD RANK Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 38

39 Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Q4-8 Q- 9 Q- 9 Q3-9 Q4-9 Q- Q- Q3- Q4- E Country profile Norway General information Description Values GDP 4.7 Billions USD GDP Growth (Q-o-Q).3 % Population.47 Crore GDP per Capita (9) 7,6 USD Key Trade-related Trends / Facts The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for nearly half of exports Economic output is struggling due to sluggish external demand and weak competitiveness GDP growth is.3% in Q4, along with rise in its total trade volume by % due to private sector spending remaining as a main source of growth in the Norwegian economy RANK 3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market Value (billions Kroner) Growth (%) Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 39

40 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix - Country Profiles - Index - Q3 - Methodology & Base Data Files Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

41 China continued to be leading economy in the Third quarter of Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q3- RANK Q- Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* China United States Germany Japan France Netherlands United Kingdom Italy Korea Belgium Canada Russian Federation Mexico Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

42 Poland and Austria economy moved up in Q3 due to increase in its domestic and foreign market Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q3- RANK Q- Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* Spain India Australia Brazil Poland Switzerland Austria Sweden Czech Republic Norway Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

43 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix - Country Profiles - Index - Q3 - Methodology & Base Data Files Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 43

Appendix Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets Methodology: Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the

44 Appendix Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets Methodology: Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index Base Data Files Trade related parameters Market related parameters Global Trade Index Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 44

Appendix Global Trade Index Forecasting Methodology METHODOLOGY Used: While predicting the Global trade index, we follow the following steps as

Apply LOGEST Formula (=Logest (Historical Data Range)-) to the historical data of trade, GDP, Domestic and foreign market, until the latest available

From the derived LOGEST value, predict the next quarter data by multiplying it with the previous quarter and adding the factor into the previous

45 Appendix Global Trade Index Forecasting Methodology METHODOLOGY Used: While predicting the Global trade index, we follow the following steps as mentioned below: a. LOGEST Calculation: a. Apply LOGEST Formula (=Logest (Historical Data Range)-) to the historical data of trade, GDP, Domestic and foreign market, until the latest available quarter b. From the derived LOGEST value, predict the next quarter data by multiplying it with the previous quarter and adding the factor into the previous quarter data b. Adjustment Factor Calculation: a. Calculate the variance of prediction against the actual for last 4 quarters and calculate the average variance b. Multiply the average variance % with the predicted figures to get the adjusted forecasting c. Finally, predict the Global trade index based on the adjusted figures Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 4

46 Variance between Actual vs. Predicted values as per LOGEST method High level of accuracy observed in 4 Quarters prediction done using LOGEST method, showing variance between to 7% from the actual which is within the forecast tolerance level of + or -%. Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved. 46

Global Trade Flow Index Q July 2010

Global Trade Flow Index Q July 2010 Global Trade Flow Index Q1-1 July 1 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for 1 The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX Global