Global Trade Flow Index

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1 Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 November 11

3 Executive Summary: Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 Executive Summary Weak US economy, debt crisis in the Euro zone and worries about inflation coupled with tighter monetary policy in Asia have clouded the outlook for global economy in Q3 11 Weakening flows of goods and services reflected in reduction of global trade by 1.3%, on QoQ basis in Q3 11 Euro zone debt crisis and an appreciating Euro constrained the exports from European nations, as total trade reduced by % in Q3 11, on QoQ basis US recovery slowed down significantly in Q3 11 due to its financial turmoil; and US dollar is expected to weaken further especially against growing market currencies, impacting its trade volumes Japan s economic growth improved in Q3 11 as reconstruction spending and improved exports provided a boost to overall growth Amongst BRIC nations, the outlook for Indian and Chinese economies remains positive, driven by heavy investments and exports Sources: Capgemini Analysis. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

4 Major economies saw their trade dwindle in the third quarter of 11, with growth falling down to sub-zero levels Key developments Total trade - Top 3 countries (billion USD) Global trade growth decelerated further as trade volumes dropped by 1.3% QoQ, to touch,1 billion USD in Q3 11 The deceleration in import and export growth affected all the G7 nations and the emerging markets, except China and India , 1,39 1,717 1,73 1,78 1,99,,13, Euro zone experienced a drop in their total trade by % QoQ in Q3 11, as growth of exports was constrained by an appreciating euro 1 9. Due to current financial turmoil, US dollar is expected to weaken further especially against growing market currencies, impacting its trade volumes, with total trade reducing by % QoQ in Q India was the only country to see a sharp pickup in export growth, from -.% in Q 11 to 1.% in Q3 11, led by demand for cars, petroleum products and precious stones Q3 9 Q 9 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q3 11 E Value (billion USD) Growth (%) -. Note: Q3 11 figures are based on Logest forecast methodology, refer to slide # 38 Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 11, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Livemint.com, Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

6 US slipped to second position with China emerging as the leading economy in the third quarter of 11 (1/) Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q-11 RANK Q3-11 E Trade Volume Score (A) QoQ Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* China United States Germany Japan France Netherlands Italy United Kingdom Korea Belgium Russian Federation Canada Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

7 Indian economy performed well in Q3 11 moving one rank up, backed by strong domestic demand and improving exports (/) Trade related parameters Market related parameters Country RANK Q-11 RANK Q3-11 E Trade Volume Score (A) QoQ Growth Score (B) Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* India Mexico Spain Australia Brazil Sweden Austria Poland Switzerland Czech Republic Norway Note: * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) Source: Capgemini Analysis, Logest Forecast Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 7

8 While rising commodity prices and weakening dollar impeded US s growth, reconstruction spending and resumption of exports helped Japan to grow in Q3 11 nd Quarter rd Quarter- 11 X - Foreign Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble Q 11,, Korea, United States, -, -1,, 9, 1, Japan -, -, China Brazil X - Foreign Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble Q3 11, United Rising commodity prices in United States further Brazil domestic reduced its domestic consumption by.% on market grew by States QoQ basis whereas weak dollar led to a decline.8% on in its foreign market growth account of a higher valued, currency; on Brazil the contrary, China Korea it hurts, South Korea relies largely upon exports to fuel competitiveness its economic growth, and in Q3 11, its exports of export of good & services grew by %(QoQ), mainly leading to a fall driven by its service sector in exports, -, -1,, 9, 1, Japan Japan s economic growth improved in Q3 11 as -, reconstruction spending provided a boost to overall growth after Tsunami On the back of improved exports of auto components, the sluggishness in its foreign market -, reduced from -.7% in Q to -1.% in Q3 11 -, -, * As per the revised Q 11 figures released by OECD * As per the Logest Forecast Note: Q3 11 figures are based on Logest forecast methodology, refer to slide # 38. Source: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Stats.oecd.org, 11, Livemint.com. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 8

9 While local economies are still growing, global trade is declining are we seeing the early impact of protectionism and a trend back to local-for-local manufacturing? Global Domestic Market and Total Trade ( - Billion USD) Domestic Market and Total Trade (Q-o-Q Growth Rate in %) Total Trade - billion USD 1 1 1,% 1,%,% During Recession Post recession,% During Recession Post recession -,% Domestic Market - billion USD -1,% -1,% -,% -,% Domestic Market Growth Total Trade Growth Sources: CPRDT Lab Analysis, Oanda.com, Stats.oecd.org,11. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 9

World trade is expected to grow in Q 11 although the risks of sovereign debt crisis in Europe still remains Preview for total trade (Q 11) - Top 3 countries (USD bn) Key Risks 19 1 1 139 1717 173 178

11 World trade is expected to grow in Q 11 although the risks of sovereign debt crisis in Europe still remains Preview for total trade (Q 11) - Top 3 countries (USD bn) Key Risks Inflation (high food prices and volatile commodity markets) is a key risk for both emerging and developed markets Ongoing US fiscal imbalances also run the risk of creating instability in financial markets Geopolitical instability and sovereign debt crisis in Euro zone could be the key risks to overall outlook of the global business environment 7 As growth slows in most of the leading economies and investor confidence weakens, there is a risk for world economy to step back into recession zone. 1 - Q3 9 Q 9 Q1 1 Q 1 Q3 1 Q 1 Q1 11 Q 11 Q3 11 Q 11 E E -. Volume (billion USD) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 & Q 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 11, Quarterly Economic Forecast Q3 11-TD Economics, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Livemint.com. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 11

Highlights from some of the major institutes for the global economic outlook for the remainder of 11 and for 1 Key Highlights Worsening U.S.

Growth looses momentum amid grimmer global environment Key Highlights The September 11 World Economic Outlook projects real growth worldwide at % for

than 1, but the recovery continues Growth in the emerging world is expected to cool down and a large part of the advanced world will continue to

12 Highlights from some of the major institutes for the global economic outlook for the remainder of 11 and for 1 Key Highlights Worsening U.S. and European growth prospects and their knock-on effects on other advanced and emerging economies are the main drivers to outlook downgrade Asia: Growth looses momentum amid grimmer global environment Key Highlights The September 11 World Economic Outlook projects real growth worldwide at % for 11 Emerging Europe s outlook is for a slowdown of growth with heightened downside risks Key Highlights Global growth in 11 looks marginally weaker than 1, but the recovery continues Growth in the emerging world is expected to cool down and a large part of the advanced world will continue to struggle with balance-sheet repair and debt crises Sources: TD.com, Imf.org, Roubini.com. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

14 AGENDA Executive Summary Index Preview Window for Q 11 Appendix - Country Profiles - Methodology & Base Data Files Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

15 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile China 1,3 billion USD Growth (QoQ) 3.% 1,31 Million per Capita (1),38 USD China s grew by 3.% QoQ in Q3 11 as its domestic demand remained robust mainly on account of strong investment. At the same time, authorities continue to hold the lid on the value of their currency, leading to inflationary conditions The total trade volume increased marginally by.% in Q3 11 on the back of weaker exports of goods as compared to last quarter RANK 1 1, 1, 1, 8,,,, Value (billions Yuan) Growth (%) Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, TD.com, Quarterly Economics Forecast, Q3 11, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

16 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile United States 3,77 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7% 311 Million per Capita (1),8 USD RANK US economic growth slowed in Q3 11 because of it s troubled financial health, a weak job market and rising energy costs Due to undergoing financial turmoil, US dollar is expected to weaken further especially against growing market currencies, impacting its trade volumes The domestic consumption further reduced by.% on QoQ basis, in Q3 11, due to rising commodity prices in United States 3,8 3,7 3,7 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, 3, Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org,11. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

17 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Germany 99 Billion USD Growth (QoQ). % 81 Million per Capita (1),73 USD RANK 3 German economy continues to rely on exports as the principal factor of its economic growth With the global growth loosing momentum in Q3 11, it is expected that the export demand for German goods will come down. However, domestic demand is expected to grow at rate of 1.-% Growth in total trade in Q3 11 fell by 1.7% over Q 11. This is the first negative QoQ de-growth in past 9 quarters Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com,Cebviews.com, EU-QuarterlyReport-EDITED-Q3-11, Allianz.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 17

18 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Japan 1,79 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) -.3 % 18 Million per Capita (1),78 USD RANK Japan s economic growth improved in Q3 11 as reconstruction spending after Tsunami provided a boost to its overall growth On the back of improved exports of auto components, the sluggishness in its foreign market reduced from -.7% in Q 11 to -1.% in Q3 11 Still, Japan remains heavily dependent on exports for economic expansion, despite waning global demand 1, 11, 1, 119, 118, 117, 11, 11, 11, 113, 11, Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 18

19 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile France 77 Billion USD Growth (QoQ). % Million per Capita (1),7 USD RANK The Euro zone debt crisis and rising raw material prices pose a downside risk to France s growth in H 11 France s total trade fell by % QoQ in Q3 11 with trade expected to shrink further. Consumption will be the sole supporter of growth in France towards the end of 11 France s grew moderately by.% (QoQ) in Q3 11 and is headed towards stagnation as the shock of the euro zone debt crisis manifests itself in France s real economy Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Reuters.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 19

20 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile The Netherlands 1 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7 % 1 Million per Capita (1),98 USD RANK The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of the world s best seaports, enhancing the country s connectivity to rest of the world Its continues to grow (though slowly) on account of public investments and also domestic consumption, which grew by.7% QoQ in Q3 11, indicating a growing consumer confidence As both exports and import of goods registered a negative growth in Q3 11, its total trade volume reduced by 1.% QoQ Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

21 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Italy 9 Billion USD Growth (QoQ). % 1 Million per Capita (1) 3,8 USD RANK 7 Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods via latest processes & technology, but the structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs and undermines investor confidence Italian economy grew marginally by.% in Q3 11; though its high level of government debt makes it vulnerable to a worsening sovereign debt crisis Slow economic growth in the rest of the euro area and exchange rate appreciation in Italy has constrained Italian exports, resulting in its total trade to reduce by more than % in Q Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Marketresearch.com, Economywatch.com, ECB September 11 Bulletin,Businessandeconomy.org, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

22 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile United Kingdom 13 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7 % Million per Capita (1) 3,1 USD RANK 8 The UK economy continued to expand though at a slower growth rate, as cuts in government spending had rippled effects through the economy In Q3 11, growth in domestic market remained almost stagnant as high level of inflation impacted consumer spending Total trade reduced by.8% due to decreasing export & import of goods; as supply chain disruptions have hit manufacturers around the world, including the United Kingdom Value (billions GBP) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

23 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Korea 89 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1. % 9 Million per Capita (1),7 USD RANK 9 An extremely competitive education system and a highly skilled and motivated workforce are two key factors driving the economy South Korea relies largely upon exports to fuel the growth of its economy. In third quarter of 11, its exports of goods & services grew by %, mainly driven by service sector Its total trade reduced by.9% QoQ in Q3 11 as sharp deterioration in the global economic outlook dampened Korean export of goods 3, 31, 3, 9, 8, 7,,, Value (billions Won) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, TradingEconomics.com, Marketresearch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

24 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Belgium 13 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7% 11 Million per Capita (1),8 USD RANK 1 Belgian economy struggles with scarcity of raw materials and is reliant on the global market for imports With the euro zone debt crisis impacting the overall business sentiment worldwide, Belgium s total trade volume fell by % in Q3 11 on QoQ basis While the Belgium grew marginally by.7%, its growth rate remains stagnant Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

25 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Russian Federation 1 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 3.% 13 Million per Capita (1) 1,3 USD RANK 11 Russia remains over-dependent on oil as high energy prices may help in the short term but its long-term growth will depend on stimulating investment in non-commodity industries and by utilizing highly-skilled labor which is in abundance In Q3 11, Russian grew at a rate of 3.% QoQ but at the same rate as last quarter because of its government failure to tame inflation and weak investment demand Its total trade reduced by.% QoQ in Q3 11 as higher imports limited the impact of higher oil and gas exports 1, 1, 1, 8,,,, Value (billions Rouble) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

26 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Canada 39 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).8 % 3 Million per Capita (1),3 USD Canadian economy grew marginally by.8% in Q3 11, largely due to the demand in domestic market The correlation between US economic growth and Canada's exports is fairly high. With the US recovery losing momentum, effects of it can be seen in Canada s exports which has registered a de-growth of 1.% QoQ in Q3 11 RANK Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com; capitaleconomics.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

27 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile India 3 million USD Growth (QoQ) 3. % 1,1 Million per Capita (1) 1,37 USD RANK 13 India s grew by 3.% QoQ in Q3 11 on account of increasing industrial output and is projected to grow at a brisk pace of 8% for the year 11-1 The outlook for the Indian economy remains positive due to increase in its trade volume by 1.% QoQ in Q3 11, supported by increase in its export of goods & services. This is primarily on back of demand for engineering and petroleum products, gems and jewellery and readymade garments,, 1, 1,, Value (billions Rupees) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com; Ibef.org, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 7

28 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Mexico 93 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1. % 11 Million per Capita (1) 9,1 USD RANK 1 As Mexican economy is largely dependent on US for meeting its domestic demands, any economic downturn in United States is likely to have adverse effects on Mexican economy Mexico s growth of 1.% in Q3 11 remained almost at the same rate as that in Q 11 Export growth in Mexico which registered a de-growth of 1.% in Q3 11 is expected to slow down further but stronger domestic demand should keep the recovery on track, 3, 3,,, 1, 1, Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 8

29 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Spain 387 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7 % Million per Capita (1) 3,39 USD RANK 1 Spain is the fifth-largest economy in the Europe and European Union accounts for 7% of it's exports Spain s debt crisis has dampened the growth in its domestic market. Also, the demand for its goods and services in external markets continues to see a de-growth, as it fell by.3% QoQ in Q3 11 Spain s grew by a marginal.7% QoQ in Q3 11. Doubts about the scale of reforms coupled with current uncertainty suggest recovery will remain subdued Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Bbvaresearch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 9

30 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Australia 379 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1.8 % 3 Million per Capita (1),71 USD RANK 1 Australia s grew by 1.8% in Q3 11, led by a rise in its domestic market by 1.% and foreign market by 1.1% on QoQ basis Factors like recent natural disasters in Queensland, business debt deleveraging and weakening home prices are weighing heavily on its growth For the first time since recession of 8-9, growth in Australia s total trade has fallen down to sub-zero levels, due to.% (QoQ) de-growth in its import of goods Value (billions Dollar) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Marketresearch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

31 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Brazil 38 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).7 % 191 Million per Capita (1) 1,81 USD RANK 17 To promote trade, Brazil has a simple and transparent tariff structure and as a step towards liberalization, Brazil has signed Free Trade Agreements with developing economies to remove dependence Brazil s growth slowed (.7% in Q3 11 as compared to 3.7% in Q 11), though its rising currency value continues to makes the country an attractive destination for global capital On the contrary, a higher valued currency has increased its export prices which led to falling exports 1, 1, Value (billions Real) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Deloitte Global Economic Outlook Q3 11, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 31

32 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Sweden 13 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).9 % 9 Million per Capita (1) 9,183 USD RANK 18 Sweden s economy is heavily dependent on foreign trade. Its privately owned companies constitute 9% of the nation s industrial output, of which the engineering sector accounts for % of output and exports Domestic market, which grew by 1% QoQ in Q3 11 led to the rise in Swedish as it went up by.9% in Q3 11 Sweden s total trade registered a de-growth of % QoQ in Q3 11, after nine quarters of consecutive growth Value (billions Krona) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Source : Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

33 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Austria 17 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).8 % 8 Million per Capita (1),988 USD RANK 19 Austria s economy which is the 1 th richest country in the world, has a developed market and high standard of living Austria s rose marginally by.8%, along with a rise in its domestic market which grew by.7% on QoQ basis Austria s total trade growth fell by approx. % on QoQ basis, as the volume for its exports and imports reduced by % and 1.9% respectively, in Q Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 33

34 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Poland 131 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1.8 % 38 Million per Capita (1) 1,3USD Poland s rose by 1.8% QoQ in Q3 11, on the back of strong demand from both domestic and export market, which grew by 1.7% and 1.% (QoQ) in Q3 11 respectively Rising import volumes, mostly driven by greater domestic demand from investment and household consumption is expected to drive its economic growth RANK Value (billions Poland) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Source: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Marketresearch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

35 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Switzerland 1 Billion USD Growth (QoQ).8 % 8 Million per Capita (1) 7,788 USD Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita which is amongst the highest in the world Switzerland s rose by.8% QoQ in Q3 11 on the back of continued economic expansion, driven by robust private consumption, fairly upbeat external demand for Swiss exports and associated gross fixed capital formation RANK Value (billions Franc) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Marketresearch.com, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

36 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Czech Republic.78 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1% 1 Million per Capita (1) 18,7 USD RANK Czech Republic is an upper middle-income country which comes under the Europe and the Central Asian region The Czech Republic is a highly export-oriented economy is dependent on economies of its key trade partners, particularly Germany Domestic market, which grew by.7% QoQ in Q3 11, aided in its growth of 1% (QoQ) in Q Value (billions Euro) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com,, Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 3

37 Q3-9 Q3-9 Q3-9 Country profile Norway 11.8 Billion USD Growth (QoQ) 1.% Million per Capita (1) 8,13 USD RANK 3 The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for nearly half of its exports Norway s grew by 1.% in Q3 11, stimulated by its domestic demand, as low interest rates combined with increasing wages led to increased consumer spending Its export market improved, though the growth is constrained because of declining demand from key trade partners like US and UK Value (billions Kroner) Growth (%) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Economywatch.com, Colliers.fi,,Imf.org, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Growth Domestic market (%) Growth Export Market (%) Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 37

38 AGENDA Executive Summary Index Preview Window for Q 11 Appendix - Country Profiles - Methodology & Base Data Files Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 38

Appendix Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets

market related parameters is used to calculate the Index

parameters Global Trade Index Global Trade Flow Index Q3

39 Appendix Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets Methodology: Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index Base Data Files Trade related parameters Market related parameters Global Trade Index Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 39

Appendix Global Trade Index Forecasting Methodology METHODOLOGY Used: While predicting the Global trade index, we follow the following steps as mentioned below: a. LOGEST Calculation: a.

40 Appendix Global Trade Index Forecasting Methodology METHODOLOGY Used: While predicting the Global trade index, we follow the following steps as mentioned below: a. LOGEST Calculation: a. Apply LOGEST Formula (=Logest (Historical Data Range)-1) to the historical data of trade,, Domestic and foreign market, until the latest available quarter b. From the derived LOGEST value, predict the next quarter data by multiplying it with the previous quarter and adding the factor into the previous quarter data b. Adjustment Factor Calculation: a. Calculate the variance of prediction against the actual for last quarters and calculate the average variance b. Multiply the average variance % with the predicted figures to get the adjusted forecasting c. Finally, predict the Global trade index based on the adjusted figures Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

41 Comparison of Forecasted and Actual values Total Trade (billion USD) Forecasted number Initial numbers Revised numbers Total Trade - Forecast Vs Actual Q' Q1' Q'11 13 Q3' Q'1 Q1'11 Q'11 Q3'11 Forecasted number Initial Number Revised final number Forecasted number : This number is arrived by using LOGEST Forecast Methodology, basis numbers available for previous quarters Initial numbers - Data for current quarter: These are the actual values available on OECD s website. It comprises estimated number for some of the countries (estimates are either provided by OECD or some estimates are made by our team in India basis analyst report/ news articles) Revised number : Updated actual numbers available on OECD s website. OECD s website is regularly updated by actual numbers made available from each individual country (incorporating any seasonal adjusted changes, if any) Note: Q3 11 estimates/figures are based on Logest forecast methodology Sources: Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 11. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved. 1

42 Variance between Actual vs. Predicted values as per LOGEST method High level of accuracy observed in 3 Quarters prediction done using LOGEST method, showing variance between - to % from the actual which is within the forecast tolerance level of + or -1%. Global Trade Flow Index Q3 11 edition Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

43 Steering Team: Roy Lenders, Capgemini Consulting Netherlands Prepared and edited by: Hardeep Singh, Capgemini Consulting India Pranav Toshniwal, Capgemini Consulting India Capgemini Consulting is the strategy and transformation consulting brand of Capgemini Group Copyright 11 Capgemini. All rights reserved.

Global Trade Flow Index

Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index Q Roy Lenders AGENDA Executive Summary Index Impact of Japan s Tsunami in Q Impact of E.coli food crisis in Q Preview Window for Q3 forecast of China s trade Appendix