Global Trade Flow Index Q October 2010

Transcription

1 Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index - 21 October 21

2 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 2

3 Global trade growth in 21 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue to rise on trade growth KEY DEVELOPMENTS Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum, trade volumes continued to grow in 21, characterized by easing of the crisis-induced credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in several economies Growth in the Eurozone picked up in 21 with the recovery in construction output and positive growth in its domestic consumption, however its trade recovery faced a downside risk as export volumes declined slightly in all major European regions TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD) , 8, 3, -2, USA total trade increased majorly on account of 6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade deficit in , China s accelerating export growth rate of 23% over Q1 21 has continued to be a major component supporting its economic growth, outpacing US 4-12, -17, Brazil s exports surged 7% q-o-q in 21 on account of steady growth in the agriculture industry and services sector, while Mexico witnessed a.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of goods because of the big jump in sale of automotive products to US 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 1 Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) -22, Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 3

4 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 4

5 China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumption and a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports Country RANK 21 RANK 21 Trade related parameters Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Market related parameters Domestic Foreign Market Market Score Score (C) (D) Global Trade Index Score* China United States Germany Japan France Netherlands South Korea United Kingdom Italy Canada Belgium Mexico Russian Federation Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX

6 Brazil s decelerating trade growth and India s poor performance over the last quarter led to their fall in their global ranking in 21 Country RANK 21 RANK 21 Trade related parameters Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Market related parameters Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* India Spain Australia Brazil Poland Switzerland Sweden Austria Czech Republic Norway Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 6

7 Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in 21 X - Foreign Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble Q1 21, 1, 1 st Quarter- 21, Germany India, Japan -, -1, -,,, 1,, 2, 2, -, US Russia Australia -1, -, -2, -2, -3, China -3, X - Foreign Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble 21 India s economy slumped as both export and import growth contracted and despite stimulus packages like reduction in excise duties and service tax, its domestic consumption dropped by % q-o-q in 21, 1,, -2, -2, -3, -3, 2 nd Quarter- 21 China witnessed an accelerating 23% q-o-q growth in foreign market trade, constituting 32% of its ; backed by governments liberalization initiatives and investments in infrastructure China Germany, Australia -, -1, -,,, 1,, 2, 2, -, US India Germany s increased by 2.2% q-o-q in 21; supported by growth in -1, exports (benefiting from the Asian demand and the depreciation of the -, euro) and Investments (rise in construction spending and an increase in investment in machinery & equipments) Australia s economy grew by 3.% and a 2% rise in exports were spurred by soaring exports of iron ore and coals alongside the robust trade linkages with Asia * As per the revised Q1 21 figures released by OECD * As per the 21 figures released by OECD Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 29, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 7

8 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 8

9 While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue withdrawal of stimulus TOTAL TRADE ( 21) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn) , 8, 3, -2, -7, RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR Is growth going to be limited with growing talks on monetary and fiscal stimulus withdrawals? With capacity utilization continuing to increase and inventory restocking reaching a comfortable level in several economies, is global trade going to weaken? 4 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 1 Q3 1E -12, -17, -22, With high unemployment, a weak euro and the possibility of international frictions and protectionist pressures, are trade imbalances in the European region going to rise? Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation. Note: Q3 1 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 21; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter. Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 21, Trading Economics, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 9

10 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 1

11 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix Country Profiles The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Methodology & Base Data Files GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 11

12 Country profile China Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.94% Crore per Capita (28) 6 USD RANK 1 China s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected to international markets through its vast port facilities Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 1.9% q-o-q in 21 China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in 21 over the previous quarter, backed by governments liberalization initiatives and investments in infrastructure 12,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, Value (billions Yuan) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 12

13 Country profile United States Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).89 % 3.72 Crore per Capita (28) 3,64 USD RANK 2 One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient custom administration The US economic growth slowed in with less than 1% growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising concerns about the recovery in the rest of 21 Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to sustained trade deficits 3,7, 3,6, 3,6, 3,, 3,, 3,4, 3,4, Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 13

14 Country profile Germany Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.26 % 8.23 Crore per Capita (28) 34 USD RANK 3 Germany s increased by 2.2% q-o-q in 21; supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction spending Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China and in 21, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4% over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and the depreciation of the euro 63, 62, 61, 6, 9, 8, 7, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 21, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 14

15 Country profile Japan Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) -.63 % Crore per Capita (28) 34 USD RANK 4 Japan s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services. In, Japan s economy has reduced by.63% due to deflation and a rise in the yen With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery 128,, 126,, 124,, 122,, 12,, 118,, 116,, 114,, 112,, Value (billions Yen) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk, Japan s economy, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX

16 Country profile France Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).99 % 6.41 Crore per Capita (28) 332 USD RANK An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in 21 With revival of private sector investment, French domestic demand showed strength in although its net trade went down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car exports Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 49, 49, 48, 48, 47, 47, 46, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 16

17 Country profile The Netherlands Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.98 % 1.67 Crore per Capita (28) 44 USD RANK 6 The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of the world s best seaports, enhancing the country s connectivity to rest of the world The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 21 mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 21 Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over the previous quarter 2,, 148, 146, 144, 142, 14, 138, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 17

18 Country profile South Korea Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.1 % 4.8 Crore per Capita (28) 276 USD Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of 21 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export boost from inventory restocking Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter RANK 7 3,, 29,, 28,, 27,, 26,, 2,, 24,, 23,, Value (billions Won) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, Korea s economy 21, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 18

19 Country profile United Kingdom Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.74 % 6.11 Crore per Capita (28) 469 USD The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter of 21 as rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and construction sector With hardly any change in its total trade, UK s trade deficit remained quite high RANK 8 37, 36, 36, 3, 3, 34, 34, 33, 33, Value (billions GBP) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 19

20 Country profile Italy Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.1 %.81 Crore per Capita (28) 313 USD RANK 9 Italy s rose by 1.1% in 21, mainly driven by exports, inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while domestic demand remained subdued Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in value chain using latest processes & technology, but the structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of recovery in 21 a little uncertain 4, 39, 39, 38, 38, 37, 37, 36, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 2

21 Country profile Canada Billions USD Canada s economy growth slowed as grew by just.7% due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and a downturn in the housing market Growth (Q-o-Q).71 % 3.3 Crore per Capita (28) 391 USD RANK 1 Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4 th of its exports to US Canadian exports to US fell in and its trade deficit widened with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles 42, 41, 4, 39, 38, 37, 36, Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 21

22 Country profile Belgium Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.2 % 1.4 Crore per Capita (28) 374 USD RANK 11 Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter with boost from increase in households private consumption expenditure Exports equal around two thirds of its and 8% of Belgium's trade is with fellow EU member states With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade dropped by 3% q-o-q in 21 88, 87, 86, 8, 84, 83, 82, 81, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 22

23 Country profile Mexico Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.18 % Crore per Capita (28) 142 USD RANK 12 Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 9% of Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 4 countries Mexico s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector Mexico s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in comparison with its Q1 21 results Its exports of goods rose to.3% because of a big jump in its sales of automotive products to the United States 3,3, ,2, 3,1, 3,, 2,9, 2,8, 2,7, Value (billions Peso) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 23

24 Country profile Russian Federation Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) % 14 Crore per Capita (28) 161 USD Russian reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of 21 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing low demand Russia s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand, weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports RANK 13 11,, ,, 1,, 1,, 9,, 9,, 8,, Value (billions Rouble) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 24

25 Country profile India 32.8 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 % Crore per Capita (28) 29 USD RANK 14 India s fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic consumption dropped to % in 21 over the previous quarter Although India s economy slumped in, on a yearly basis it expanded by 9% with services as the major source of economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing 2,,,, 1,,,, Value (billions Rupees) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 2

26 Country profile Spain Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).16 % 4. Crore per Capita (28) 347 USD RANK The Spanish economy rose by just.16% weighed down by sluggish private consumption, still falling construction investment and erratic business capital spending as the government battles to trim a bloated budget With EU accounting for 7 percent of Spain's exports, the slight upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other European economies 27, 27, 26, 26, 2, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 26

27 Country profile Australia Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.64 % 2.13 Crore per Capita (28) 381 USD RANK 16 Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition along with high domestic and foreign market barriers The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth; with the private sector increasingly taking over the government stimulus as the engine of growth Australia s 2% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with Asia 36, 34, 32, 3, 28, 26, Value (billions Dollar) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 27

28 Country profile Brazil Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.36 % Crore per Capita (28) 12 USD RANK 17 Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its grew by 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw monetary stimulus slowed the rates Household spending growth continued to ease and investment lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture industry and services sector 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Value (billions Real) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 28

29 Country profile Poland Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.49 % Billions USD The Polish economy expanded at a faster pace in 21 as compared to Q1 led by investment, consumer spending, construction and increase in exports per Capita (28) 3.8 Crore 173 USD The total trade volume rose by 9% in comparison with Q1 21 supported by a sharp rise in its export of goods & services RANK 18 36, 3, 34, 33, 32, 31, 3, 29, Value (billions Poland) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, mt.com, Forexyard.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 29

30 Country profile Switzerland Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.17 %.76 Crore per Capita (28) 418 USD RANK 19 Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita among the highest in the world The Swiss economy continued its growth in the second quarter of 21, expanding at 1.2% as companies' investment spending fuelled growth and both exports and consumer spending rose 138, , 134, , 13, Value (billions Franc) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade, 29, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 3

31 Country profile Sweden 18.7 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.84 %.91 Crore per Capita (28) 381 USD RANK 2 Swedish economy grew by 1.8% in 21 due to increase in its domestic demand, consumer spending, inventory investments and declining unemployment Its export of goods & services, which make up about half of Sweden s output, expanded by 6% on q-o-q basis, as the global demand pushed production 84, 82, 8, 78, 76, 74, 72, Value (billions Krona) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Iesingapore.gov.sg, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 31

32 Country profile Austria Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.73 %.82 Crore per Capita (28) 42 USD RANK 21 Austria's economy grew 1.7% in ; Industrial production rose strongly from the previous year and the capacity utilization rate was again over the long- term average, giving significant push to its economy in the second quarter Exports and investment were the biggest factors behind the rise; its exports of goods & services rose by 6% because of the rising demand from main export destination Germany which accounts for 1/3 rd of its total exports 72, , 7, 69, , 67, 66, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 21. XE.com, Chinadaily.com.cn, Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group, Country Reports: Austria, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 32

33 Country profile Czech Republic 4.71 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.21 % 1.2 Crore per Capita (28) 29 USD RANK 22 Inventory replenishment drove the Czech economic upturn in the second quarter of 21 The economy returned to positive growth in 21 on account of reviving household consumption and the unexpectedly fast growth spurt in Germany, the country s main trading partner Being a highly open economy as well as highly export-oriented, the economy s fate is tied to that of the Eurozone 94, 93, 92, 91, 9, 89, 88, Value (billions Koruna) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Roubini.com, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 33

34 Country profile Norway Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.4 %.47 Crore per Capita (28) 93 USD RANK 23 The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for nearly half of its exports grew by 1% q-o-q in 21, mostly driven by private sector spending Economic output was low; struggling due to sluggish external demand and weak competitiveness 66, 64, 62, 6, 8, 6, 4, Value (billions Kroner) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 21. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 34

35 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix Country Profiles The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Methodology & Base Data Files GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 3

36 While Brazil s foreign trade levels have increased, its growth rate in export of goods has slowed to % of its growth last quarter Brazil growth Projected vs. Actual At current growth levels, Brazil has crossed 223 levels as per projections Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market Brazil s foreign trade has been approx. 9-17% of its domestic consumption over the past decade Brazil s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries 29 Country 21 36% % 9% 7% 6% % % USA Germany Japan Korea France Netherlands Mexico 4% Spain 4% % UK 4% 3% Canada 4% 36% 16% 9% 7% 6% % % US, Germany and Japan represents more than % of Brazil's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact Brazil s trade growth Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 23. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 36

37 Russia s total trade volume reduced by 4% q-o-q due to a major reduction in its export of goods, hit by weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports Russia growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, Russia has crossed 211 levels as per projections Russia was worst hit from crisis amongst the BRIC nations Russia s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption in 2, is now 1/4 th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade Russia s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, Country 21 28% Germany 27% 13% 9% 11% 1% 6% 4% USA Netherlands Turkey France Japan Korea % 4% 3% UK Spain Czech Republic % 4% 4% 12% 9% 9% 9% 8% 6% Germany alone constitutes 1/4 th of Russia s total trade and more than 3/4 th of its exports consisting of oil, natural gas, metals & timber Change in trade policies of European Union may impact Russia s trade growth because of its high dependence on European economies GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 37

38 In 21, India s growth of export of goods & services fell sharply because of poor performance in certain service sectors India growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market India s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached approx. 1/4 th of its domestic consumption over the past decade At current growth levels, India has crossed 213 levels as per projections India s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries 29 Country 21 28% 13% 11% 9% 9% 7% 6% USA Germany Australia Korea UK Japan France 4% Netherlands 3% 3% Spain 3% 2% Turkey 3% 31% 11% 1% 1% 8% 8.% % US alone constitutes 1/3 th of India s total trade followed by Germany and Australia Gems and jewelry constituted the single largest export item, accounting for 16% of exports Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 23. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 38

39 China s accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth in 21 China growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market China s foreign trade has been approx. 7-11% of its domestic consumption over the past decade At current growth levels, China has crossed 2 levels as per projections China s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Q1 29 Country Q1 21 3% 19% 12% 1% % 4% 4% 4% 3% USA Japan Korea Germany Australia France Canada UK Mexico Netherlands 29% 2% 13% 11% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% US, Japan and Korea represent more than % of China's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact China s trade growth Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 23. GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 39

40 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q3 1 Appendix Country Profiles The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Methodology & Base Data Files GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 4

41 Appendix - Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets Methodology : Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index Base Data Files Trade related parameters Market related parameters Global Trade Index GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_ -21.PPTX 41

42 Thank you very much for your attention!