Global Trade Flow Index Q July 2010

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Global Trade Flow Index Q July 2010"

Christine Hunter
5 years ago
Views:

1 Global Trade Flow Index Q1-1 July 1

3 Global trade in Q1 1 rose % q-o-q; a slightly slower growth over the previous quarter as fear of a sovereign debt crisis affected European economies KEY DEVELOPMENTS TOTAL TRADE- TOP 3 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD) Trade volumes continued to grow in the first quarter of 1 globally, although at a slower pace than in the previous quarter Trade growth remained strongest in Asia and Latin America, but was relatively low in the euro area under the drag of high unemployment and huge fiscal deficits, 1, The outlook for the trade in European economies in the first quarter of 1 is negatively affected by the fall in the value of euro and the rising uncertainty surrounding the Greek bailout The largest rise in total trade on q-o-q basis were registered in the BRIC countries Brazil, Russia, India and China, where export volumes rose by %, 14.4%, 16% & 13% respectively as governments liberalization initiatives and industrial capacity improved 1, USA total trade increased by 4.6% in Q1 1 and trade deficit widened as the value of crude imports in US hit the highest level in last 18 months 7 Q3 7 Q4 7 Q1 8 8 Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) -. Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 3

5 The top 1 rankings majorly remained unchanged in the first quarter of 1 as major economies continued their growth path in light of economic recovery (1/) Country RANK 1 RANK United States 1 1 Trade related parameters Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Market related parameters Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* 14. China Germany Japan France Netherlands United Kingdom Italy Korea Belgium Canada Russian Federation Mexico Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX

6 Brazil s moved 3 ranks up over Q4 based on strong growth in domestic consumption (/) Country RANK 1 RANK Trade related parameters Trade Volume Score (A) Q-o-Q Growth Score (B) Market related parameters Foreign Market Score (C) Domestic Market Score (D) Global Trade Index Score* Spain India Brazil Australia Switzerland Poland Sweden Austria Czech Republic Norway Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 6

7 Dip in the services trade led to China s downward move while India moved ahead because of huge growth in exports of goods & services 4 th Quarter- X- Foreign Market Growth (%) 4. Y- Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble 3. China. 1. US Brazil Russia X- Foreign Market Growth (%) Y- Domestic Market Growth (%) Bubble Q1 1 Brazil economic growth surges in Q1 on strong domestic demand, witnessing a 8% growth while its export market is still struggling for a positive growth Brazil 1 st Quarter Japan s domestic consumption grew 1.3% based on government stimulus and its rise in exports were spurred by solid exports to Asia and growth in its automotive industry US India s economy grew 8.3% q-o-q basis indicating strong economic growth especially driven by its huge growth in exports of goods & services Japan India Russia -1. Russia s grew only by.6 % in Q1 due to slowed domestic demand and a 3% drop in its exports of goods & services China In March 1 China recorded the first monthly trade deficit since May4; though trade of goods was positive, its trade in services went down and with government's efforts to curb excessive credit its domestic demand fell sharply * As per the revised Q4 figures released by OECD * As per the Q1 1 figures released by OECD Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org,, Trademinister.gov.au, Ft.com/world, Tradingeconomics.com 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 7

World trade is expected to rebound as markets remain protectionism-free though the risks of any unforeseen events such as the Greek debt crisis still remain, 1,6 1, TOTAL TRADE (Q1 1) - TOP 3

9 World trade is expected to rebound as markets remain protectionism-free though the risks of any unforeseen events such as the Greek debt crisis still remain, 1,6 1, TOTAL TRADE (Q1 1) - TOP 3 COUNTRIES (USD Bn) RISK TO WATCH OUT FOR With the recent weakness in the euro, fuelled by the Greek debt crisis, can European nations accelerate their exports? With increasing imports and flow of money within the Chinese economy through government stimulus, does China face inflationary risk? Q3 8 Q4 8 Q1 9 9 Q3 9 Q4 9 Q1 1 1E -. Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) There is an improvement in the global trade levels though the pace was slower than expected because of the fear of a sovereign debt crisis in EU* and volcanic eruption in Iceland causing considerable trade disruption. Note: 1 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for April 1; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter; EU* - European Union Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 1, Trading Economics, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 9

11 While Brazil s foreign trade levels have increased, it continues dependence on the US for more than a third of its total foreign trade Brazil growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, Brazil has crossed 3 levels as per projections Brazil s foreign trade has been approx. 9-17% of its domestic consumption over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade Brazil s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q1 Country Q % 13.1% 8.%.3%.4% 4.% USA Germany Japan Korea France Mexico 4.1% Netherlands 4.6% 3.3% Spain 4.3% 3.6% UK 4.%.1% Canada 3.6% 34.% 14.8% 9.% 6.3%.8% 4.7% US, Germany and Japan represents more than % of Brazil's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact Brazil s trade growth Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 11

1 3 4 6 7 1 11 1 13 14 16 17 18 19 1 3 4 6 7 8 9 3 Highly dependent on trade with Europe, Russia s growth trajectory took a major hit during the global financial meltdown Russia growth Projected vs.

12 Highly dependent on trade with Europe, Russia s growth trajectory took a major hit during the global financial meltdown Russia growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market At current growth levels, Russia has crossed 11 levels as per projections Russia was worst hit from crisis amongst the BRIC nations Russia s foreign trade which was approx. half of its domestic consumption in, is now 1/4 th of the domestic consumption and has gradually decreased over the past decade Domestic Market Foreign trade Russia s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3. Q1 Country Q % 7.7%.7% 7.3% 6.4% 6.1% 3.7% 3.1% 3.9% Germany Turkey Netherlands USA Poland France Japan Korea UK Czech Republic.6% 9.% 9.1% 8.9% 8.6% 8.% 6.8%.6% 3.9%.9% 3.4% Germany alone constitutes 1/4 th of Russia s total trade and more than 3/4 th of its exports consisting of oil, natural gas, metals & timber Change in trade policies of European Union may impact Russia s trade growth because of its high dependence on European economies 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 1

13 India s actual growth mirrors projections, while its foreign trade levels have continually expanded India growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market India s foreign trade ration has been gradually increasing and has reached approx. 1/4 th of its domestic consumption over the past decade At current growth levels, India has crossed 13 levels as per projections Domestic Market Foreign trade India s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3. Q1 Country Q1 1 4.% 11.9% 6.% 6.3% 1% 6.3%.9% USA Germany Australia Korea UK Japan France 3.4% Netherlands 4.% 1% Spain 3.1%.3% Canada.1%.% 11.9% 1.% 9.6% 8.4% 8.4% 6.4% US alone constitutes 1/4 th of India s total trade followed by Germany and Australia India trade with UK has doubled in last one year with UK share in total trade going up from 1% in Q1 to 8.4% in Q1 1 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 13

14 China has surged ahead of growth projections based on strong domestic demand, while its foreign trade levels have grown more gradually China growth Projected vs. Actual Foreign Trade Vs Domestic Market China s foreign trade has been approx. 7-11% of its domestic consumption over the past decade At current growth levels, China has crossed levels as per projections Domestic Market Foreign trade China s Top 1 Trading Partner Countries Projected Actual Q1 Country Q % 16.7% 9.9% 9.6% 4.4% 4.% 3.1% 3.6%.7% USA Japan Korea Germany Australia France UK Canada Netherlands.% Mexico.8% 7.4% 19.% 1.% 11.% 4.7% 4.% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% US, Japan and Korea represent more than % of China's total trade Change in economic environment / trade policies of top trading partners may impact China s trade growth Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Goldmansachs.com, Dreaming With BRICs, 3. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 14

16 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for 1 The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix Country Profiles Methodology & Base Data Files 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 16

17 Country profile United States 36.3 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1. % 3.7 Crore per Capita () 3,64 USD RANK 1 One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient custom administration The US economy continued its momentum in the first quarter of 1 though the growth was less than expected at 1% mainly because of weak consumer consumption and business spending Though International trade increased, imports have continually outpaced exports leading to sustained trade deficits 3,7, 3,6, 3,6, 3,, 3,, 3,4, Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Moneymorning.com, US Economic Outlook, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 17

18 Country profile China Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) -8.68% Crore per Capita () 6 USD RANK China s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected to international markets through its vast port facilities China's trade deficit has declined in Q1 as China's stimulus program intensified investment-led growth, increasing demand for commodities and capital goods and the country has not made progress toward rebalancing to a more consumer-oriented economy Chinese export of goods gained momentum in Q1 though its export of services declined 1,, 1,, 8,, 6,, 4,,,, Value (billions Yuan) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, Cesifo-group.de, Forum-9-spotlight-A look at China, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 18

19 Country profile Germany Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).6 % 8.3 Crore per Capita () 34 USD RANK 3 Germany's economy grew slightly at.% in the first quarter of 1 as reviving exports and investments in the economy pushed recovery Euro's depreciation since the outbreak of Greek debt crisis also gave German exports some advantages in global markets, a.% increase in exports of goods & services in Q1 over the previous quarter It remains the world leader in terms of quality of transport infrastructure, particularly with its high levels of maritime connectivity 63, 6, 61, 6, 9, 8, 7, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Eubusiness.com, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 19

20 Country profile Japan Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.33 % 1.71 Crore per Capita () 34 USD RANK 4 In Q1, domestic consumption, which is a major contributor to its economy, grew 1.3% while Japan s rise in exports were spurred by a rise in demand from China and growth in Japan s automotive industry Its grew by 1.3%, indicating that Japan s recovery from a crippling recession is finally gathering momentum Japan s limited openness to foreign participation is not conducive to trade and places high barriers to market accessibility in domestic and foreign markets, making it unclear whether the momentum will be sustained 13,, 13,, 1,, 1,, 1,, 11,, Value (billions Yen) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, News.bbc.co.uk, Japan s economy, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX

21 Country profile France 66.8 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).4 % 6.41 Crore per Capita () 33 USD RANK France, with its world s best border administrations, offers a favorable regulatory environment for trade and was amongst the first to show a growth in its economy during the crisis in Amidst weaker domestic demand, French rose by.4% in the first quarter of 1, mainly due to improved foreign trade balance In Q1, the exports of goods & services recorded a bounce of 4%, much higher than.7% in the last quarter of indicating that the economy is finally moving up Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 49, 49, 48, 48, 47, 47, 46, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 1

22 Country profile The Netherlands.4 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).88 % 1.67 Crore per Capita () 44 USD RANK 6 The Netherlands owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of the world s best seaports, enhancing the country s connectivity to rest of the world Domestic consumption though weak was better than previous quarter and its economy grew.9% in the Q1 1, a third quarter in succession with positive q-o-q economic growth Dutch exports of goods & services grew by 9% in Q1; pushed up by an increased demand for chemical and metal products,, 148, 146, 144, 14, 14, 138, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Fxstreet.com/news, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX

23 Country profile United Kingdom 6.37 Billions USD The UK economy continued to expand over the first quarter of this year as rose by % on q-o-q basis with business services and finance acting as its largest contributor Growth (Q-o-Q).6 % 6.11 Crore per Capita () 469 USD RANK 7 With hardly any changes to its total trade, UK s trade deficit remained quite high UK s strength lies in high levels of efficiency of border administration and the quality of infrastructure, though its business environment is affected by falling sterling against dollar, the fiscal turbulence and raising security concerns 36, 36, 3, 3, 34, 34, 33, Value (billions GBP) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 3

24 Country profile Italy 39.1 Billions USD Italy went into reverse in the final quarter of ; even the domestic consumption and export showed negative growth Growth (Q-o-Q).4 %.81 Crore per Capita () 313 USD RANK 8 Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in value chain using latest processes & technology, but the structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of recovery in 1 a little uncertain 4, 39, 39, 38, 38, 37, 37, 36, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 4

25 Country profile Korea 49. Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 3. % 4.8 Crore per Capita () 76 USD RANK 9 Korean economy grew 3% during the first quarter of 1, propelled by an increase in manufacturing Export of goods grew 6.% on account of an upswing in exports of cars and semiconductors, among other items The country has macroeconomic stability and a very innovative business sector but suffers from inefficiencies in its financial and labor markets 9,, 8,, 7,, 6,,,, 4,, ,, Value (billions Won) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Oecdobserver.org, Korea s economy, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX

26 Country profile Belgium Billions USD Belgium has a developed transport network but with few natural resources; it imports substantial quantities of raw materials and exports a large volume of manufactures Growth (Q-o-Q).18 % 1.4 Crore per Capita () 374 USD RANK 1 Foreign trade accounts for approximately 7% of Belgium s economy and about 8% of Belgium's trade is with fellow EU member states Though slow, Belgium s Gross domestic product increased by. % in Q1 with reviving global growth 88, 87, 86, 8, 84, 83, 8, 81, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Stats.oecd.org, National Bank of Belgium, Economic review, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 6

27 Country profile Canada 384. Billions USD Canada s witnessed a.% growth in the first quarter of 1 propelled by consumer spending, residential construction and government spending Growth (Q-o-Q).1 % 3.3 Crore per Capita () 391 USD RANK 11 Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as well as highly efficient markets but is highly dependent on the United States as a market, with 3/4 th of its exports to US Canadian exports rose more than imports in the opening quarter of 1, suggesting that Canadian trade is accelerating 4, 41, 4, 39, 38, 37, 36, Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Statcan.gc.ca,World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 7

28 Country profile Russian Federation Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).6 % 14 Crore per Capita () 161 USD RANK 1 Russian though grew at.6 % this quarter and expanded by 7% on a y-o-y basis, the effects were slowed by its own domestic market growth With more than 3/4 th of Russia s exports consisting of oil, natural gas, metals and timber; on q-o-q basis its exports of goods rose by 14% with exporters benefiting from higher prices, though its exports of goods & services dropped by 3% 11,, 1 8 1,, 1,, 9,, 9,, 8,, Value (billions Rouble) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Rgemonitor.com, Emerging markets monitor 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 8

29 Country profile Mexico 49.9 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.4 % 11.1 Crore per Capita () 14 USD RANK 13 Mexico s transport infrastructure and the related services are assessed positively, in particular those related to maritime shipping services, given its geographic location Mexico s economy is surging out of the global economic crisis, recording q-o-q growth of 3.4% in the first quarter of the year and also recorded its first y-o-y growth in more than a year Mexico's exports and manufacturing industry gained momentum in the last two quarters, giving the country's economy a lift; its export of goods & services rose by 3% in Q1 1 3,3, ,, 3,1, 3,,,9,,8,,7, Value (billions Peso) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 9

30 Country profile Spain Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.11 % 4. Crore per Capita () 347 USD The Spanish economy exited recession in the first quarter of 1, but only just with a growth of 1% q-o-q supported by increase in consumption and exports With EU accounting for 7 percent of Spain's exports, the slight upturn in international trade probably relates to the slow and stagnated growth in its total trade RANK 14 7, 7, 6, 6,,, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 3

31 Country profile India 37.9 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 8.34 % Crore per Capita () 9 USD RANK India s border administration meets needs of importers and exporters, particularly with government initiatives on computerization of cargo clearance and EDI India s economy grew 8.3% q-o-q in the first quarter of 1, cementing a trend of strong economic growth in emerging markets Q-o-Q exports of goods rose by 16%; with India s export to China rising by 7% in the first quarter this year, with a big increase in textiles and stones and precious metal shipments bringing down the trade deficit,,,, 1,,,, Value (billions Rupees) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Banknetindia.com, Indian Economic Survey Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 31

32 Country profile Brazil Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 7.17 % To promote trade, Brazil has a simple and transparent tariff structure and as a step towards liberalization, Brazil has signed Free Trade Agreements with developing economies to remove dependence per Capita () Crore 1 USD Brazil economic growth surged in Q1 on strong domestic demand, witnessing a 8% growth while its export market is still struggling for a positive growth RANK 16 9, 8, 8, 7, 7, 6, Value (billions Real) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Stats.oecd.org, World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 3

33 Country profile Australia 9.43 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).7 %.13 Crore per Capita () 381 USD RANK 17 Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition along with high domestic and foreign market barriers Australia's economic growth is somewhat stagnated in Q1 as the unwinding of macroeconomic stimulus affected business investment and consumers Its exports provided a significant boost to its in the first quarter, with a 4.6% q-o-q growth 34, 33, 3, 31, 3, 9, 8, 7, 6, Value (billions Dollar) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 33

34 Country profile Switzerland 18. Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).4 %.76 Crore per Capita () 418 USD RANK 18 Switzerland has stable modern market economy with low unemployment, a highly skilled labor force, and a per capita among the highest in the world The Swiss economy continued its growth in the first quarter of 1, expanding at.% though at a slower pace mainly because of the decline in domestic demand Despite high value of the franc, its export of goods & services grew by 6.4% because of the boom in sales of precious metals, gems, art and antiques, though its total trade remain quite stable 137, , 13, 134, , 13, 131, Value (billions Franc) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 34

35 Country profile Poland Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q).87 % 3.8 Crore per Capita () 173 USD Poland s economy expanded at a slightly slower pace in the first quarter at.9% mainly supported by domestic demand Though its export growth in Q1 was negative; overall the economy has gained from global recovery with its exports of goods and services growing by.4% on y-o-y basis RANK 19 3, 34, 33, 3, 31, 3, 9, Value (billions Poland) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Scribd.com, Study of Poland s Economic Performance, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 3

36 Country profile Sweden Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.7 %.91 Crore per Capita () 381 USD RANK Sweden, despite possessing a world-class infrastructure, transparent and efficient border administration, doesn't have a favorable business environment Sweden s economic growth in the first quarter was positive, a time when most other European economies exhibited poor performance Its export of goods & services rose by 4% as the global demand pushed production 81, 8, 79, 78, 77, 76, 7, 74, 73, Value (billions Krona) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, World Economic Forum, Global Enabling Trade,. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 36

37 Country profile Austria 97.1 Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.14 %.8 Crore per Capita () 4 USD RANK 1 In Austria, goods production in Q1 1 dropped by.9% compared to the previous quarter, while Austria s exportoriented industry suffered from the sluggish external demand, falling.%. Contraction in the Austrian economy was prevented by public consumption, which reflected above-average growth of 1% qoq Private consumption, which is being bolstered by government measures, will probably come under pressure in 1, due to unemployment, the end of government support measures and possible tax hikes or cuts in social spending 7, 71, 7, 69, 68, 67, Value (billions Euro) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org,. Austrian Raiffeisen Banking Group, Country Reports: Austria, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 37

38 Country profile Czech Republic Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) -.99 % 1. Crore per Capita () 9 USD RANK Being a highly open economy as well as highly export-oriented, the economy s fate is tied to that of the eurozone On Q-o-Q basis, Czech export of goods & services grew by 3.6 % though the growth in total trade was marginal While the economy faces continued weakness in private consumption due to the subdued labour market and the impacts of fiscal austerity measures, fiscal tightening could further impact consumption levels 94, 93, 9, 91, 9, 89, 88, Value (billions Koruna) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 38

39 Country profile Norway Billions USD Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.76 %.47 Crore per Capita () 93 USD The country is highly dependent on the petroleum sector, which accounts for nearly half of exports Though the growth is stable, private sector spending is expected to drive the economy in 1 Economic output is struggling due to sluggish external demand and weak competitiveness RANK 3 66, 64, 6, 6, 8, 6, Value (billions Kroner) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Cia.gov, Stats.oecd.org, 1. 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 39

40 AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for 1 The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix Country Profiles Methodology & Base Data Files 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 4

Index Base Data Files Trade related parameters Market related parameters Global

41 Appendix - Global Trade Index Methodology and Data Sheets Methodology : Two pronged approach encompassing trade and market related parameters is used to calculate the Index Base Data Files Trade related parameters Market related parameters Global Trade Index 1 Capgemini Consulting All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q1-1.PPTX 41

42 Thank you very much for your attention!

Global Trade Flow Index

Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index Q4 - January AGENDA Summary Index Preview Window for Q The West-to-East Switch: BRIC Appendix Global Trade Flow Index Q4 edition Copyright Capgemini. All rights reserved.