The Prospects Service
|
|
- Charity Barrett
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, September 2017 Toplines The combination of rising consumer confidence, low borrowing costs and declining unemployment is likely to support Eurozone consumer spending in the coming months. Donald Trump has outlined major tax cut plans. The plan includes reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% while also changing the number of income tax brackets. Canada s GDP rose at its strongest rate since 2011 in the second quarter, helped by solid household spending. Moreover, the Bank of Canada raised its benchmark rate for only the second time in seven years. Latest economic indicators for Japan suggest that Asia s second-largest economy will continue growing in the coming months despite a marked downward revision of second quarter GDP growth. Although Angela Merkel s CDU remains the strongest party in German Parliament, they recorded their worst result since Meanwhile, far-right AfD enters Parliament as the third-strongest party. Forecast summary Cebr expects the world economy to grow by 3.0% in 2017 with a slight acceleration to 3.1% in We revised up slightly our forecast for the Eurozone economy given the continued positive data flow. Cebr predicts Eurozone GDP to expand by 2.0% in 2017, up from 1.7% in German GDP is forecast to increase by 2.0%, with the French and Italian economies growing at annual rates of 1.7% and 1.3% respectively. India s economy is now predicted to grow at a marginally slower pace than in Particularly weak second quarter GDP results are the main reason for the slight downward revision of GDP growth to 7.0% in This is down from our 7.1% forecast in August. The US Federal Reserve Bank announced that it will start cutting its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially by just $10 billion per month. A further rate hike towards the end of the year remains a strong possibility. China s economy performed better than expected during the first half of the year, but we expect a slight weakening of growth in the second half. Nonetheless, Cebr expects Chinese GDP to accelerate from 6.7% in 2016 to 6.8% this year.
2 In focus: Results of the German federal election: The outcome of the German federal election came as a surprise, given that both parties of the current coalition government the CDU/CSU and SPD recorded their worst results in over six decades. The CDU/CSU secured 32.9% of the votes, an 8.6 percentage point decline from The CDU/CSU lost almost one million supporters to the AfD, which is likely to be at least in part a reflection of voters unhappiness with Angela Merkel s immigration policies. The SPD lost 5.2 percentage points and had a share of just 20.5% of all votes. Meanwhile, far-right party AfD becomes the third largest party as it enters Parliament only four years after it was founded, securing 12.6% of all votes. The FDP returns to Parliament after failing to secure 5% of votes during the 2013 election. There were some notable demographic differences in the election results with the far-right AfD particularly popular in some of Germany s Eastern states. In Saxony, the AfD was the strongest party. Data from Tagesschau 1 also highlight that the AfD was particularly popular amongst unemployed people. The Chancellor now has the difficult task to build a coalition government. After the SPD ruled out a continuation of the Grand coalition, it looks likely that the CDU/CSU will begin talks with the FDP and the Green Party. However, discussions will be difficult given the large differences in some areas. One area of discrepancy concerns the number of migrants Germany is able to accommodate. While the CSU has previously argued for an upper-limit, the Green Party strongly dismisses an upper-limit. Share of voters 32.9% 20.5% Win/loss since 2013 election 0.6% 0.5% 6.0% 7.9% 9.2% 8.9% 10.7% 12.6% -8.6% -5.2% Sources : Tagesschau ( 1
3 Global roundup Europe Eurostat revised its annual Q2 GDP forecast for the Eurozone from 2.2% to 2.3%, confirming that the currency union s economy grew at the fastest pace in over six years. With the economy gathering momentum, the European Central Bank (ECB) should feel confident about starting to taper its asset purchase programme at the beginning of next year. Cebr forecasts the Eurozone economy to grow by 2.0% in This is up from 1.9% in the July forecast, as we now believe that Germany and Italy will grow at stronger rates than previously estimated. Industrial production improved only marginal on the latest data (for July), but latest business survey data showed that the Eurozone economy regained momentum in September. PMI data from IHS Markit suggested that the manufacturing sector performed particularly well with the respective index the highest in over six years while figures from the European Commission showed that production expectations increased markedly, boding well for the coming months. The outlook for consumers remains bright, with Eurozone consumer confidence rising to its highest level since 2001, according to the European Commission. Moreover, declining unemployment and low borrowing costs are supporting consumer spending. Although Angela Merkel secured victory in the federal election in Germany, her party the CDU recorded its worst result since The far-right AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) was the third-strongest party, entering the Bundestag for the first time. With a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD ruled out, the most likely scenario is the so-called Jamaica coalition between the CDU, the Green Party and the FDP. 4% Eurozone GDP growth 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Source : IMF, Cebr analysis
4 North America At its latest monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve Bank announced that it will start cutting its $4.5 trillion balance sheet in October, initially by just $10 billion per month. Fed chair Janet Yellen stressed that cutting the balance sheet will be a gradual and predictable process. The Fed also said that the US economy will continue to expand over the next few years and that the job market will strengthen further. The US unemployment rate rose marginally from its 16-year low to 4.4% in August, while non-farm payrolls growth slowed for the second month running. The average monthly gain in employment in 2017 so far stands at 175,000, down from 194,000 in 2016 and the lowest since However, with the US labour market moving closer to full employment, it is not surprising that non-farm payroll growth is slowing. It will be particularly interesting to see whether the next few jobs reports will be coloured by the impact of Hurricane Harvey. The latest economic projections of the Fed see the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1% next year. The US commerce secretary Wilbur Ross said that US GDP could be boosted by one percentage point if the government can get its tax reform right. The framework for the tax includes bringing the corporation tax down from 35% to 20% as well as cutting the top individual tax rate from 39.6% to 35%. However, there remains uncertainty about the timing of those reforms with businesses generally expecting the legislation will implemented by the end of next year. 2 Canada s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter as household spending rose at the strongest rate since before the financial crisis. Annualised growth stood at 4.5%, easily beating expectations of a 3.7% expansion. With GDP and other economic indicators stronger than expected, the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate to 1%. It was only the second interest rate rise in over seven years. 4.0% North America GDP growth 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% Economies covered: Canada, Mexico, United States Source: IMF, Cebr analysis 2 Based on survey results from the National Association for Business Economics (
5 Asia-Pacific The Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 2.5% in the second quarter, according to latest government estimates. This is down markedly from the initial estimate of 4.0% growth, but still the strongest rate of expansion in over two years. A large part of the downward revision came from weaker than previously thought capital expenditure which is now believed to have increased by just 0.5%, down from the previous reading of 2.4%. Latest economic indicators such as industrial production, consumer confidence and trade data suggest that the Japanese economy continued growing in Q3. However, it is likely that the rate of expansion has slowed since Q2. Over 2017 as a whole, Cebr predicts economic growth of 1.3%. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe called a snap election, which is likely to take place on October 22 nd. Mr Abe s support had fallen during the summer months but recovered most recently. Political commentators believe that the Prime Minister is trying to exploit the opposition s current weakness by calling a snap election. We revised down our Indian GDP forecast slightly. For 2017 we expect the Indian economy to expand 7.0%, down marginally from our August forecast of 7.1% growth. Latest official data showed that Indian GDP rose just 5.7% in the three months to June, the slowest pace in three years. Disruption caused by the goods and services (GST) tax and effects of the demonetisation are likely to have acted as drags on the country s economic performance. Manufacturing growth slowed to 1.2% in the June quarter, from 5.3% in the previous quarter while mining contracted. China s economy enjoyed better than expected growth in the first half of 2017, with GDP rising at an annual rate of 6.9% in both Q1 and Q2. However, there are signs that economic growth may soften slightly in the second half of the year. Industrial production growth slowed from 6.4% in July to 6.0% in August, representing the joint-weakest increase since March 2016, with retail sales also surprising on the downside. Given China s strong performance in the first half of the year, Cebr still expects Asia s largest economy to expand 6.8% in 2017, which would be the first acceleration in growth since Asia-Pacific 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Economies covered: Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand Source: IMF, Cebr analysis
6 Forecast tables GDP growth major economies Cebr-Growth forecast-% Australia 2.4% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Brazil -3.6% 0.6% 1.5% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% Canada 1.5% 2.3% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% China 6.7% 6.8% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% France 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% Germany 1.9% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% India 7.1% 7.0% 7.5% 7.5% 7.5% 7.0% Indonesia 5.0% 5.1% 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.5% Italy 0.9% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% Japan 1.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% Mexico 2.3% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% Russia -0.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% South Korea 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% Spain 3.2% 3.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% Turkey 2.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 2.5% United Kingdom 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% United States 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% World 2.5% 3.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.1% Commodity prices* Oil prices** *IMF non-fuel commodity index, 2005 = 100 **Average of Brent, WTI & Dubai Fateh, in USD Source: IMF, Cebr analysis More forecasts can be found by accessing the Cebr databank:
7 For more information, please contact Oliver Kolodseike Senior Economist
The Prospects Service
The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, January 2017 Toplines The world economy remains in a stage of heightened uncertainty, with ongoing Brexit negotiations,
More informationMarket Watch. Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review Developments in Financial Markets
Market Watch Latest monthly commentary from the Investment Markets Research team at BT. March Review 2018 INSIDE THIS ISSUE Stock markets were blindsided on the first day of March, when US President Donald
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy buoyed by rising US strength. June 12 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy buoyed by rising US strength June 12 th 2018 2 Global PMI rises but also brings signs of slower future growth At 54.0 in May, the headline JPMorgan Global Composite PMI, compiled
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens. November 14 th 2016
Global PMI Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens November 14 th 2016 2 Global PMI at 11-month high in October Global economic growth kicked higher at the start
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy enjoys best quarter for three years, inflationary pressures hit 6½-year high. October 10 th 2017
Global PMI Global economy enjoys best quarter for three years, inflationary pressures hit 6½-year high October 10 th 2017 2 Global economy enjoys best quarter for three years Global economic growth continued
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationEuropean Economic Outlook p. 1
European Economic Outlook 2018-2022 p. 1 European Economic Outlook 2018 The economic recovery in Europe is expected to continue in 2018 and beyond, albeit at a slower pace, as many economies are approaching
More informationWebinar: Credit crunch China and forward guidance in the UK why does it matter?
Webinar: Credit crunch China and forward guidance in the UK why does it matter? Simon Thompson, ICAEW Charles Davis, Cebr Making sense of the economic outlook Simon Thompson, Head of Corporate Communications
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high. February 8 th 2016
Global PMI Global economy starts 2017 on the front foot, PMI at 22-month high February 8 th 2016 2016 IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved. 2 Global PMI at 22-month high The global economy started 2017 with
More informationASEAN Insights: Regional trends
ASEAN Insights: Regional trends January 2017 1. Global trends GLOBAL ECONOMY AND EQUITY MARKETS ENTER 2017 ON A STRONG NOTE DESPITE GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES The global economy entered 2017 on a strong
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy grows at fastest rate for over two years, inflationary pressures rise. September 8 th 2017
Global PMI Global economy grows at fastest rate for over two years, inflationary pressures rise September 8 th 2017 2 Global PMI records fastest growth for over two years Global economic growth rose to
More informationGlobal PMI. Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials. July 7 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Solid Q2 growth masks widening growth differentials July 7 th 2017 2 Widening developed and emerging world growth trends The global economy enjoyed further steady growth in June, according to
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy suffers loss of momentum in March. April 10 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy suffers loss of momentum in March April 10 th 2018 2 Global economy suffers marked loss of growth momentum Global economic growth slowed sharply to the weakest for over a year
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FINALLY, SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH Augustine Faucher Chief Economist November 13, 2017 Senior Economic Advisor Chief Economist BETTER GROWTH THIS YEAR, AND AN UPGRADE TO 2018 World output,
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2017 Economic overview Further evidence of synchronised global economic improvement was signalled by higher measures of economic activity and company profits, along
More informationIMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook
All Members, IMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook International monetary fund (IMF) in its latest update on World Economic Outlook
More informationEconomic Indicators. Roland Berger Institute
Economic Indicators Roland Berger Institute October 2017 Overview Key points Economic Indicators A publication, compiled by the Roland Berger Institute, that provides you with the most important macroeconomic
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 3rd Quarter 2017 Economic overview Economic data released during the quarter seemed to signal a continuation of synchronised global recovery in almost all regions. This is being
More informationAir travel markets over the next two decades
Air travel markets over the next two decades October 2016 Brian Pearce Chief Economist, IATA We ve enjoyed a long period of above-trend air travel growth 30% Growth in worldwide RPKs 25% 20% 15% 7 years
More informationFY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Apr-Jun Qtr of 2018 FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - The Japanese economy is continuing to follow a recovery track - September 10, 2018 Copyright Mizuho Research
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? North American Conference San Francisco October 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy set for robust Q2 growth. June 8 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy set for robust Q2 growth June 8 th 2017 2 PMI indicates robust global growth in Q2 The global economy is on course for a robust second quarter, according to PMI survey data. The
More informationCanadian Rate Hikes Begin Quite Suddenly
SEPTEMBER 4, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Canadian Rate Hikes Begin Quite Suddenly # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff Economic growth is strong all around the world. ff The Bank of Canada quickly
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationWTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 2014
PRESS RELEASE PRESS/722 26 September 214 (-) WTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 214 TRADE STATISTICS WTO economists have reduced their forecast for world trade growth in 214
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 2nd Quarter 2017 Economic overview Economic indicators, such as employment statistics, manufacturing activity and company profits, seem to indicate that the global economy is recovering
More informationMonthly Economic Review
Monthly Economic Review FEBRUARY 2018 Based on January 2018 data releases Bedfordshire Chamber of Commerce Headlines UK GDP growth picked up in Q4, driven by stronger output from the services sector The
More informationMerkel Set for Fourth Term but Support Weakens
25 SEPTEMBER 2017 Merkel Set for Fourth Term but Support Weakens Angela Merkel is set for a fourth term as German chancellor although there was a sharp fall in support for her Christian Democrat-led alliance.
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will growth continue and at what pace? International Containerboard Conference Chicago November 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook December 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Fed Taper Delay, ECB Rate Cut & Further Easing Likely, Improving
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. May 8, The Finance Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review May 8, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Key
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationApril 13, Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16. Globanomics. World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016
April 13, 2017 Economics Research - Globanomics - Q4/16 Globanomics World s Dashboard of Economic Indicators Q4 2016 Globanomics: Global Economic Indicators Q4 16 1 Quarter at a Glance The IMF revised
More informationFocus on: Hong Kong. International Business Report 2011 Economy focus series
Focus on: Hong Kong International Business Report 11 Economy focus series The recovery The economy rebounded strongly in, posting growth of 6.8 per cent as recovering global demand boosted exports. Prospects
More informationEY s Global Economic Outlook Ireland
EY s Global Economic Outlook Ireland January 2018 The global economy is healthy Mark Gregory Chief Economist, UK mgregory@uk.ey.com linkedin.com/in/markgregoryuk Neil Gibson Chief Economist, Ireland neil.gibson1@ie.ey.com
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationThe international environment
The international environment This article (1) discusses developments in the global economy since the August 1999 Quarterly Bulletin. Domestic demand growth remained strong in the United States, and with
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationSeptember 27, Northern Trust Global Economic Research 50 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois northerntrust.com
Northern Trust Global Economic Research 0 South LaSalle Chicago, Illinois 003 northerntrust.com Carl R. Tannenbaum Chief Economist 31.7.0 ct9@ntrs.com Victoria Marklew Country Risk Manager 31..1 vem1@ntrs.com
More informationTHE STATE OF THE ECONOMY
THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY ANGELA GUO Portland State University The United States economy in the fourth quarter of 2013 appears to have a more robust foothold pointing to a healthier outlook for 2014. Much
More informationOUTLOOK 2014/2015. BMO Asset Management Inc.
OUTLOOK 2014/2015 BMO Asset Management Inc. We would like to take this opportunity to provide our capital markets outlook for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015 and our recommended asset
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationJune 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating
June 2013 Equities Rally Drive Global Re-rating Since the lows of 2011, global equities have rallied 30% while Earnings per Share remained flat. This has been the biggest mid-cycle re-rating of global
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012
www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth
More informationCredit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update
Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview PMI data highlight growing variations in likely policy paths 9 June 2015 Global growth slows for second month running in May Global economic growth edged lower
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016
Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 December 2017
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Strengthening of the pickup in global growth, with GDP expected to increase 2.9% in 2017 and 3.1% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone recovery is upholding
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationEconomic Outlook. Global And Finnish. Technology Industries In Finland Turnover and orders picking up s. 5. Economic Outlook
Economic Outlook Technology Industries of Finland 2 217 Global And Finnish Economic Outlook Broad-Based Global Economic Growth s. 3 Technology Industries In Finland Turnover and orders picking up s. 5
More informationMarkit Global Business Outlook
News Release Markit Global Business Outlook EMBARGOED UNTIL: 00:01, 16 March 2015 Global business confidence and hiring intentions slip to post-crisis low Expectations regarding activity and employment
More informationSIP Aggressive Portfolio
SIP LIFESTYLE PORTFOLIOS FACT SHEET (NOV 2015) SIP Aggressive Portfolio SIP Aggressive Portfolio is a unitized fund, which is designed to provide long term capital growth. It is designed for those who
More informationYear in review Year in review Global Markets. Year ending: December 31, 2017 CAN: S&P/TSX 16,209 15, % MSCI All Country World Index
Year in review Year in review Global Markets Year ending: December 31, EQUITY INDICES 29-DEC- 30-DEC- % CHG CAN: S&P/TSX 16,209 15,288 6.0% US: INDU 24,719 19,763 25.1% US: SPX 2,674 2,239 19.4% Nasdaq:
More informationFY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged -
REVISED to reflect the 2 nd QE for the Oct-Dec Qtr of 2017 FY2017, FY2018, FY2019 Economic Outlook - Firm outlook on both domestic and overseas economic growth remains unchanged - March 8, 2018 Copyright
More informationQUARTERLY REPORT. 30 September 2017
QUARTERLY REPORT 2017 CONTENTS 1 Page 4 BMW GROUP IN FIGURES 2 INTERIM GROUP MANAGEMENT REPORT Page 11 Page 11 Page 13 Page 18 Page 19 Page 21 Page 31 Page 31 Page 38 Page 39 Report on Economic Position
More informationManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Global
ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Global 1 19 ManpowerGroup interviewed over 6, employers across 44 countries and territories to forecast labor market activity* in January-March 19. All participants
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationWorld Economic outlook
Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil
More informationInsolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017
Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.
More informationHSBC Trade Connections: Trade Forecast Quarterly Update October 2011
HSBC Trade Connections: Trade Forecast Quarterly Update October 2011 New quarterly forecast exploring the future of world trade and the opportunities for international businesses World trade will grow
More informationDanske Bank October 2015 Economic Update,
Monthly update: 5 October 2015 Danske Bank Chief Economist, Twitter: angela_mcgowan www.danskebank.co.uk/ec Local job and investment announcements during September 2015 Over the month of September there
More informationThe Forex Market in March 2007
1 The Forex Market in March 2007 US Dollar : USD The US dollar in March continued to weaken from prior month compared with the euro and the yen with exchange rates averaging at US$ 1.3251 per euro and
More informationThe global economy in Grant Thornton International Business Report
Grant Thornton International Business Report 2014 in numbers Drawing on data and insight from the Grant Thornton International Business Report (IBR), the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and the International
More informationGlobal growth weakening as some risks materialise
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Global growth weakening as some risks materialise 6 March 2019 Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com
More informationPRESIDENT TRUMP The First 100 Days and the U.S. Economy
PRESIDENT TRUMP The First 100 Days and the U.S. Economy MBAFCPA.COM June 2017 INTRODUCTION During his campaign and after the election President Trump has mentioned the importance of what he would accomplish
More informationEconomic ProjEctions for
Economic Projections for 2016-2018 ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR 2016-2018 Outlook for the Maltese economy 1 Economic growth is expected to ease Following three years of strong expansion, the Bank s latest
More informationSEPTEMBER Overview
Overview SEPTEMBER 214 Global growth. Global growth has been weaker than expected so far this year, as economic activity disappointed in a number of major countries in the first six months (Figure 1).
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 1st Quarter 2017 Economic overview Data appears to signal that economic activity is picking up around the world, with many forecasts for growth being revised upwards. This has
More informationHighlights and key messages for business and public policy
Highlights and key messages for business and public policy Key projections 2018 2019 Real GDP growth 1.5% 1.6% Consumer spending growth 1.1% 1.3% Inflation (CPI) 2.7% 2.3% Source: PwC main scenario projections
More informationMarket E-digest October 2018 Issue
Market E-digest October 2018 Issue A) Emerging Markets: Diminishing Risks VS. Fears Emerging market (EM) economies are facing a number of insecurities. Investors have grown increasingly concerned about
More informationPMITM. The world s leading economic indicator
PMITM The world s leading economic indicator The Purchasing Managers IndexTM (PMITM) is based on monthly surveys of carefully selected companies representing major and developing economies worldwide. KEY
More informationGrowth has peaked amidst escalating risks
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Growth has peaked amidst escalating risks 1 November 18 Ángel Gurría OECD Secretary-General Laurence Boone OECD Chief Economist http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-outlook/ ECOSCOPE
More informationfile:///c:/users/cathy/appdata/local/microsoft/windows/temporary Int...
1 of 5 9/25/17, 8:57 AM A Publication of the National Association of Manufacturers September 25, 2017 As expected, the Federal Reserve opted to not raise short-term interest rates at its September 19 20
More informationORSO 職業退休計劃. Fidelity Advantage Portfolio Fund
ORSO 職業退休計劃 Fidelity Advantage Portfolio Fund Semi-Annual Report and Accounts For the period ended 30 June 2018 SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AND ACCOUNTS - FOR THE PERIOD ENDED 30TH JUNE 2018 Contents Pages Management
More informationThe real change in private inventories added 0.22 percentage points to the second quarter GDP growth, after subtracting 0.65% in the first quarter.
QIRGRETA Monthly Macroeconomic Commentary United States The U.S. economy bounced back in the second quarter of 2007, growing at the fastest pace in more than a year. According the final estimates released
More informationPortfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios
Portfolio Strategist Update from BlackRock Active Opportunity ETF Portfolios As of Sept. 30, 2017 Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc., ("Ameriprise Financial") is the investment manager for Active Opportunity
More informationMedium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2014 OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO QUANTUM FUNDS
QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation.
More informationMain Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone
Main Economic & Financial Indicators Eurozone 03 NOVEMBER 2015 AKIKO DARVELL ASSOCIATE ECONOMIST ECONOMIC RESEARCH OFFICE (LONDON) T +44-(0)20-7577-1591 E akiko.darvell@uk.mufg.jp The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi
More informationTHREADNEEDLE MANAGED FUNDS
INTERIM REPORT AND UNAUDITED FINANCIAL STATEMENTS THREADNEEDLE MANAGED FUNDS NOVEMBER 2017 THREADNEEDLE MANAGED FUNDS COLUMBIATHREADNEEDLE.COM Contents Introduction 2 Threadneedle Managed Equity Fund 3
More informationMarket Update. Market Update: Global Economic Themes. Overview
Market Update Late August 2013 Market Update: Global Economic Themes So far this summer, we have produced two Market Update papers covering capital market themes and geopolitical risks. In this final paper
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 April 13 th 2016 Global economic growth weakest since late-2012 Global economic growth was running at its weakest
More informationQ2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015
Q2 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 Quarterly Market Review Second Quarter 2015 This report features world capital market performance and a timeline of events for the past quarter. It begins
More informationEconomic Outlook. Technology Industries In Finland Growth of new orders and tender requests stalled s. 4
Economic Outlook Technology Industries of Finland 4 218 Global And Finnish Economic Outlook Growth continues to slow down s. 3 Technology Industries In Finland Growth of new orders and tender requests
More informationOECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (A EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE) GIC Conference, London, 3 June, 2016 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department Key messages 1 The global economy is stuck in a low growth
More informationChilvester Investment Strategies
Chilvester Investment Strategies Portfolio Review October 2017 Contents Introduction... 2 Investment returns... 3 Portfolio Review... 4 Summary... 6 Appendix... 7 Important information... 10 Economic update...
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationOutlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel
Outlook for the Economy and Travel Outlook for the Global Economy and Travel Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Adam Sacks President Tourism Economics @adam_sacks Outline The Outlook for
More informationGlobal PMI. Global growth lifted by emerging market upturn. August 8 th 2016
Global PMI Global growth lifted by emerging market upturn August 8 th 2016 2 Global PMI buoyed by emerging market upturn Global economic growth edged higher at the start of the third quarter, but failed
More informationFrankfurt am Main 25 November Capital Markets Outlook 2016: Broad diversification key to stable portfolios
Release Frankfurt am Main 25 November 2015 Capital Markets Outlook 2016: Broad diversification key to stable portfolios Deutsche Bank expects global economy to grow by nearly 3.5 percent Central banks
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview Global growth held back by emerging market stagnation August 11 2015 Developed world leads global growth higher for first time in four months Global economic growth
More informationEUROPEAN EXPORT INDEX Q1 2018
EUROPEAN EXPORT INDEX Q1 2018 BDO EXPORT INDEX KEY FIGURES The BDO Export Indices are composite indicators which provide snapshots of the export markets in Europe s five largest economies Germany, UK,
More information