Eurozone. Outlook for. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast. Summer edition 2012

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Eurozone. Outlook for. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast. Summer edition 2012"

Transcription

1 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition 2012 Outlook for

2 Published in collaboration with

3 Andy Baldwin Head of Financial Services Europe, Middle East, India and Africa With key national elections in France and Greece, as well as a banking bailout in Spain, much has happened since our nothing has changed. Even the return of a pro-bailout government in Greece last month barely moved the dial. Similarly, the 100 million bailout of Spain s banks in June prompted only a short rally. After two years of turmoil, it seems that global investors are frustrated with short-term to the sovereign debt crisis. Unlike the markets, we continue to believe that the Eurozone is more likely than not to emerge from this crisis intact, but the outlook has deteriorated over the quarter. The continued uncertainty means that stock market volatility is high, while other Eurozone members such as Spain are being forced to pay up to 7% on their borrowings and bank share prices remain depressed. Unemployment, which is running at 25% in Spain and 22% in Greece, will continue to depress the economy, and a 0.6% contraction in the Eurozone s economy is forecast. services sector. In banking, the ECB s second long-term but the necessary painful restructuring has barely begun. review of the banks on 31 July to try to reassure the markets that the bailout has worked. The decision by Eurozone leaders at the summit on 28 June to restructure the bank recapitalization plan so that the loans do not add to Spain's public debt burden was a welcome move that will help to break the feedback loop between sovereign and banking sector risk. balance sheets by 1.6 trillion in As a result, corporate loans will contract, which will hit investment and feed back into the real economy. With banks facing further ratings downgrades as they write off sovereign debt, funding pressures will intensify, driving up interest rates as banks compete for new depositors. The insurance industry, meanwhile, is facing a dilemma. Muted stock performance has combined with low interest rates to hit investments at a time when quantitative easing is down their capital or switch allocations to riskier assets in the hope of improving returns. However, there is good news for consumers in that increased refocus on customer service. depressed equity markets and assets under management quarter of In the longer term, a resolution to the Eurozone crisis will boost stock markets, helping both insurers and asset managers. Despite market cynicism, Eurozone governments solution in the last few weeks. The election of François Hollande as President of France in April shifted the balance of power toward the southern European states, who argued in favor of economic stimulus instead of austerity. In June, objections to a limited pooling of sovereign liabilities. help stabilize the Eurozone at the June summit, including a single banking supervisor and changes to the rules governing EU bailout funds to allow direct purchases of sovereigns such as Spain and Italy. Considerable downside risks remain, not least that the Eurozone s richer northern members must convince their people to pay for this pooling of liabilities. Greece where the pro-bailout Government s political to leave the single currency without unraveling the euro. services informative and thought-provoking. Please visit our dedicated Eurozone website for more information: Contents Summer edition

4 Overview Despite a pro-bailout party getting the largest share of the vote in June s re-running of the Greek elections, uncertainty over the Eurozone s future continues. Consequently, stock market volatility is higher than it was early in the year, as are peripheral bond yields, while the euro, German government bond yields and bank share prices the Eurozone will stay intact, given the very negative economic impact of a break-up on all parties. Nevertheless, markets will continue to worry periodically about such a break-up, and policy-makers will continue to struggle to keep up with the demands of the market for Away from the Greek crisis, the key question for policy-makers has shifted from how to enforce austerity to how to improve a gloomy economic outlook. We forecast a mild contraction in the Eurozone this But since then the outlook has deteriorated, with a high degree of uncertainty about the future shape of the Eurozone likely to dampen deep and prolonged restructuring that will squeeze the availability of credit for some time. This is also likely to dampen business investment and consumer spending. Spain s decision to apply for Eurozone assistance to recapitalize its banks is a positive step and the decision by Eurozone leaders to inject the funds directly into the banking sector will help to break the adverse feedback loop between sovereign and banking sector risk. The decision to move change and a major step toward a broader banking union. Such a union would also need to include a resolution regime for failed banks and a pan-european deposit guarantee scheme. in many economies the contraction seems set to continue into Assuming the Eurozone remains in its current shape, with Spain, Italy and Portugal averting debt restructuring, 2013 may see a gradual recovery, with Eurozone GDP rising by 0.4%. But the recovery is likely to be weak into the medium term, with overall Eurozone growth unlikely to causing bank loan losses in much of the region. The jobless rate has risen to almost 25% in Spain, 22% in Greece, and 15% in Portugal, further undermining domestic demand and investment and the ability crunch. But the Eurozone banking sector still needs to go through a remains whether Greece is able to adhere even to diluted terms of a place even greater strains on the Eurozone and push up borrowing costs for Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain at best, this would impair the economic recovery further and, at worst, it could drive other peripherals toward default. Forecast for the Eurozone economy GDP Summer edition 2012

5 Sector highlights Banking Asset management Insurance Summer edition 2012

6

7 in the region are set to reduce their assets by some 1.6 trillion this banking system requires up to 62 billion in additional capital in order to withstand a worst case economic scenario. The 100 billion of EU bailout funds that have been made available to Spain should thus be shrink, curtailing consumer spending and business investment and, hence, overall economic growth. As the economy weakens, there will be increased upward pressure on leaders at the summit on 28 June to inject capital directly into the banking system, rather than routing it through the Spanish government, is also a positive step that will help to break the feedback loop between sovereign and banking sector risk. they will rise from an estimated 5.6% of total loans last year to reach a euro-era high of 6.5% during Chart 1.2 Eurozone non-performing bank loans 14 % total loans Forecast Italy 8 6 Eurozone 4 France Germany 2 Netherlands Chart 1.1 Eurozone banking sector assets and GDP Chart 1.3 Bank exposure to Spain % year Forecast Total bank assets Nominal GDP Rest of world 8 US 4 UK 0 France Government debt Private sector Banks Other -4 Germany Source: BIS US$b Summer edition

8 Although investment banks enjoyed a rebound in trading revenues at contract by 4.8% this year. sector loans are not forecast to surpass their pre-crisis peak of 4,827 billion until remainder of the year appears far more downbeat. Prospects in retail divisions also appear gloomy, given the shrinkage in loan books and the income for Eurozone banks to show only very modest growth of 1.5% this year, albeit an improvement from the estimated 1.4% fall banks in the core Eurozone, while banks in the periphery countries will suffer continued losses. Pressure on margins will continue to be a driving force behind restructuring in the banking sector, with the likely weakness in Q2 results giving added impetus to these efforts. Eurozone-Banking ,543 31,900 31,495 32,545 33,838 35,121 12,322 11,841 11,849 12,344 12,977 13,595 4,720 4,496 4,535 4,775 5,079 5, ,784 3,743 3,770 3,866 3,977 4, Forecast for the Eurozone economy Summer edition 2012

9

10 companies in the sector focused on re-engineering processes and high hedging costs, low business volumes due to the weak economic environment, and more onerous capital requirements will between interplay between historically low interest rates and capital requirements is a particular problem for the industry. In addition, the Eurozone life insurance industry has a gap to plug between historically low interest rates and the higher return by running down reserves or by investing in riskier assets such as equities or corporate bonds instead of high-quality government debt. Eurozone non-life premiums grew by 3.1% in 2011 as insurers were able to make rate improvements stick in some markets. However, due to the combination of weak new business growth, record catastrophe non-life industry suffered in customer acquisition costs. Chart 2.2 Life premium growth % Year on year the non-life insurance industry in the region will see premium growth in 2012 of just 1.5%, well below historical averages should see growth return to the Eurozone economy and premium growth rise to 2.2%. Premium growth is likely to stay at or below 3% until 2016, Germany France Italy Spain Netherlands Chart 2.1 Eurozone net operating surplus Chart 2.3 House prices 30 b Forecast 125 Level Forecast 120 France Germany Netherlands Italy Spain

11 challenging macro-economic environment will keep the life industry rather depressed. Weak GDP, job markets, income growth and housing business. Consequently, life premiums in the Eurozone will not fully recover in 2012 from 2011 s fall. onerous regulatory capital requirements. However, in the longer term, demand for savings products, longevity insurance and long-term care will be robust, due to the need of an ageing population to prepare for that it is responding to. There is considerable work under way to reshape life products and look for new hedging strategies. Eurozone-Insurance % year Life claims ratio (%) % year Non-life claims ratio (%) Forecast for the Eurozone economy Households Summer edition 2012

12 10

13 At the end of 2011 the Eurozone asset management industry had assets and a 16% fall in equity assets as the equity market fell 8% and investors withdrew assets. intervened to stabilize the Eurozone banking system and bring down pace of 4% 7%. This will help equity assets to grow, particularly those of the peripheral economies. The growth rates of bond assets across bond AUM in Germany, France and the Netherlands, but over this a fall in yields on peripheral debt. However, AUM probably fell again in the second quarter as another phase of the Eurozone debt crisis depressed equity markets and caused the yields of peripheral bonds to rise again. around, the decline in money market AUM. weakness in equity AUM to continue during In recent months, funds as investors have shied away from taking strong directional bets in the face of an uncertain policy outlook. We are forecasting a 3% rise in bond AUM during 2012, as strength in weakness in Spanish bond AUM, the Spanish market being at the epicentre of the Eurozone crisis in its current phase. Chart 3.2 Bond assets under management b Germany (left-hand side) Forecast Spain (right-hand side) Chart 3.1 Eurozone total assets under management Chart 3.3 Eurozone assets under management 6,000 b Forecast 600 b Forecast 5, , Mixed asset funds 3,000 2, Fund of funds 1, Summer edition

14 funds asset growth will be much more moderate than in the past, given that these funds are now no longer in vogue. Analysis included in the Spring forecast showed that there was a rising requirements for funding pensions. This suggested that pensions toward 50% of retail funds under management. Eurozone-Asset management % year ) *UCITS and non-ucits assets Forecast for the Eurozone economy Households ,564 2,314 2,531 2,895 3,236 3,526 15,581 15,853 16,671 17,912 19,040 19, ,820 5,927 6,009 6,561 6,965 7, Summer edition 2012

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016.

Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. PRICE POINT February 2016 Timely intelligence and analysis for our clients. Fixed Income. EURO SOVEREIGN OUTLOOK SIX PRINCIPAL INFLUENCES TO CONSIDER IN 2016. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Kenneth Orchard Portfolio

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Finland

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Stronger

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Modest

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Slovenia

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Ireland

More information

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks

PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks PIMCO Cyclical Outlook for Europe: Near-Term Recovery, Long-Term Risks September 26, 2013 by Andrew Balls of PIMCO In the following interview, Andrew Balls, managing director and head of European portfolio

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany Strong

More information

Euro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas

Euro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas Euro, sovereign debt, liquidity and other issues: questions and answers from BNP Paribas After being asked a number of questions about the bank and the Eurozone, we have decided to publish the answers

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Autumn edition September 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia

More information

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight

Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Can the Eurozone Remain at the Party? Howard Archer Country Intelligence Group Global Insight Eurozone Growth Robust in First Half 4 (Percent change, q/q, real GDP) 3 2 1 0-1 GDP Dom Demand Cons Inv Govt.

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Cyprus Severe

More information

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce

THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE. 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK IN 2012 ILTA CONFERENCE 9 May 2012 Vicky Pryce Contents Global and European economy UK economy Prospects for individuals and businesses Concluding remarks what next? Global and European

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?

Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011

More information

1 World Economy. Value of Finnish Forest Industry Exports Fell by Almost a Quarter in 2009

1 World Economy. Value of Finnish Forest Industry Exports Fell by Almost a Quarter in 2009 1 World Economy The recovery in the world economy that began during 2009 has started to slow since spring 2010 as stocks are replenished and government stimulus packages are gradually brought to an end.

More information

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014

OVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014 OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Summer edition June 2011 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast June 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for exits bailout,

More information

Fund Management Diary

Fund Management Diary Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 16 th October 2018 Euro-zone competitiveness imbalances In the run up to the global financial crisis differing competitiveness levels across the euro-zone contributed

More information

Fixed Income Markets: Experiencing Historic Lows

Fixed Income Markets: Experiencing Historic Lows Fixed Income Markets: Experiencing Historic Lows Prepared: June 7, 2012 Overview How low can they go? This seemed to be the question the fixed income markets tried to answer on June 1st. Ten-year yields

More information

Will Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies?

Will Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies? Will Fiscal Stimulus Packages Be Effective in Turning Around the European Economies? Presented by: Howard Archer Chief European & U.K. Economist IHS Global Insight European Fiscal Stimulus Limited? Europeans

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Belgium

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Winter edition December 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia

More information

June & July 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST

June & July 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST June & July 2012 CURRENCY FORECAST Foreign Exchange & Global Payments CURRENCY FORECAST CHART GBP/USD EXCHANGE RATES MAY Avg. JUNE & JULY f 2012 Q4 f USD/CAD 1.0107 1.0100-1.0600 0.9900 EUR/USD 1.2800

More information

Eurozone Focus The Ongoing Saga Of Sovereign Debt

Eurozone Focus The Ongoing Saga Of Sovereign Debt 14 The Ongoing Saga Of Sovereign Debt Sovereign debt will continue to be the headline issue for the Eurozone. Whilst the discordant debate over Greece has certainly overshadowed concerns over Portugal,

More information

Thoughts and Concerns: 1) During the July to September quarter the financial turmoil surrounding Greece and Europe increased in its intensity.

Thoughts and Concerns: 1) During the July to September quarter the financial turmoil surrounding Greece and Europe increased in its intensity. Thoughts and Concerns: 1) During the July to September quarter the financial turmoil surrounding Greece and Europe increased in its intensity. In an effort to support the European banking system (and indirectly

More information

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017

Insolvency forecasts. Economic Research August 2017 Insolvency forecasts Economic Research August 2017 Summary We present our new insolvency forecasting model which offers a broader scope of macroeconomic developments to better predict insolvency developments.

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook

Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook Eurozone 2016 Economic and Capital Market Outlook December 11, 2015 by Gregory Hahn of Winthrop Capital Management Six years after the financial crisis, the Eurozone continues to face major challenges

More information

ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited

ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited VOL 7, NO 1 July 6, 12 ECB Rate Cut~ Necessary to maintain market sentiment, but actual effects are limited Summary The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to cut the main refinancing rate from 1.% to

More information

Review: Income Portfolio

Review: Income Portfolio Review: Income Portfolio In the most recent quarter we only made one change to the portfolio s investments. Namely, we re-invested the proceeds of the maturing Bell Canada Bond, plus a portion of the portfolio

More information

Global Investment Strategy. Scenario Analysis Autumn 2012

Global Investment Strategy. Scenario Analysis Autumn 2012 Global Investment Strategy Scenario Analysis Autumn 212 Introduction 2 The combination of bullish investors, low market volatility and low financial stress suggests that risk assets are vulnerable to a

More information

Fall Update The Current Global Economic Environment

Fall Update The Current Global Economic Environment The Current Global Economic Environment 2010 has been a turbulent year for the global economy, requiring the ongoing scrutiny and, at times, the undivided attention of global leaders, policy makers and

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2013 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 213 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Greece Rising

More information

ASSESSING THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION: KEY INDICATORS TO MONITOR

ASSESSING THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION: KEY INDICATORS TO MONITOR Weekly Economic Perspective ASSESSING THE RISK OF A DOUBLE-DIP RECESSION: KEY INDICATORS TO MONITOR August 2, 2010 Robert F. DeLucia, CFA Consulting Economist Summary and Major Conclusions: Heightened

More information

Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012

Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, PwC September 2012 www.pwc.co.uk/economics Global Economic Outlook John Hawksworth Chief Economist, September 2012 Agenda Global overview Short term prospects for Europe, US and BRICs Long term trends: demographics, growth

More information

LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY

LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVERVIEW: The European economy has moved into lower gear amid still robust domestic fundamentals. GDP growth is set to continue at a slower pace. LESS DYNAMIC GROWTH AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY Interrelated

More information

What does Western Economic Crisis Mean for South Africa?

What does Western Economic Crisis Mean for South Africa? What does Western Economic Crisis Mean for South Africa? Seeraj Mohamed Corporate Strategy and Industrial Development Research Programme University of the Witwatersrand Context for Europe s Crisis Global

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook

More information

Finland falling further behind euro area growth

Finland falling further behind euro area growth BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,

More information

What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper

What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? Adrian Cooper acooper@oxfordeconomics.com June 2011 What could debt restructuring imply for the Eurozone? New stage in Eurozone debt crisis: first

More information

November PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy

November PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring edition March 2012 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain

More information

Cyprus. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Cyprus. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Renewed external funding to support growth, but is a worry Published in collaboration with Highlights The ending of capital controls and the approval

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Germany

More information

Department of Economics ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Department of Economics ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Department of Economics ECONOMIC OVERVIEW January 2012 EDITORIAL Will the Euro Survive? By joining the euro, Europe s peripheral countries gained access to cheap, easy financing. They spent beyond their

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 2015 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook

More information

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018

Eurozone Economic Watch. July 2018 Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast December 2014 Outlook for Road to recovery remains strewn with obstacles Published in collaboration with Highlights GDP growth With the Finnish economy still struggling to

More information

Investment Market Performance

Investment Market Performance Investment Markets in December, Review of 2014 and Outlook for 2015 Markets weakened in local currency terms in December but US and Japanese markets gained in Euro terms as the Euro weakened further. Equity

More information

Church of Ireland Pensions Fund Report 2010 THE CHURCH OF IRELAND CLERGY PENSIONS FUND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PAGE 1 YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009

Church of Ireland Pensions Fund Report 2010 THE CHURCH OF IRELAND CLERGY PENSIONS FUND FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PAGE 1 YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS PAGE 1 YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2009 165 FINANCIAL STATEMENTS 2009 PAGE 2 CONTENTS PAGE TRUSTEE S REPORT 3 REPORT OF THE INVESTMENT MANAGER 6 REPORT OF THE INDEPENDENT AUDITORS 9 ACCOUNTING

More information

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013

Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast June 2013 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Ernst & Young

More information

Global scenario service. December 2011

Global scenario service. December 2011 December Contents Executive Summary... Overview... scenario... Disorderly Eurozone default... China hard landing... 7 Corporate reawakening... Conclusion... December Executive Summary The global economic

More information

June 19, 2012 OUTLOOK

June 19, 2012 OUTLOOK OUTLOOK June 19, 2012 The poor May U.S. jobs report helped crystallize the slowdown in the global economy in the second quarter. Global manufacturing slowed in May, led by weakness in the eurozone. Helpfully,

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast March 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast March 214 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for Estonia

More information

Can the Euro Survive?

Can the Euro Survive? Can the Euro Survive? AED/IS 4540 International Commerce and the World Economy Professor Sheldon sheldon.1@osu.edu Sovereign Debt Crisis Market participants tend to focus on yield spread between country

More information

Debt and Austerity in Europe: Who Will Pay for Growth?

Debt and Austerity in Europe: Who Will Pay for Growth? Global Economics Monthly June 2013 Debt and Austerity in Europe: Who Will Pay for Growth? Robert Kahn, Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics o v e r v i e w Bottom Line: Eurozone

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast Summer edition Outlook for financial services

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast Summer edition Outlook for financial services Eurozone EY Eurozone Summer edition 2013 Outlook for financial services Welcome Introduction Andy Baldwin A few weeks ago, President Hollande of France assured a Japanese audience that the Eurozone crisis

More information

Design Failures in the Eurozone. Can they be fixed? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics

Design Failures in the Eurozone. Can they be fixed? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Design Failures in the Eurozone. Can they be fixed? Paul De Grauwe London School of Economics Eurozone s design failures: in a nutshell 1. Endogenous dynamics of booms and busts endemic in capitalism continued

More information

1 World Economy. about 0.5% for the full year Its GDP in 2012 is forecast to grow by 2 3%.

1 World Economy. about 0.5% for the full year Its GDP in 2012 is forecast to grow by 2 3%. 1 World Economy The short-term outlook on the Finnish forest industry s exports markets is overshadowed by uncertainty and a new setback for growth in the world economy. GDP growth in the world economy

More information

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus

Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying

More information

The main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis

The main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis The main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis Guido Tabellini Bocconi University and CEPR What are the main lessons to be drawn from the European financial crisis? This column argues

More information

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.

Explore the themes and thinking behind our decisions. ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.

More information

Italy: fundamentals are the compass amid political twists

Italy: fundamentals are the compass amid political twists Italy: fundamentals are the compass amid political twists Eric Brard Head of Fixed Income Annalisa USARDI, CFA Senior Economist With the contribution of: Giuseppina Marinotti Investment Insights Unit The

More information

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010

Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

Investment Report The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan

Investment Report The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan Investment Report 2011 The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan The Flexible Guarantee Bond and Flexi Guarantee Plan Investment Report 2011 This information does not constitute investment advice

More information

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014

Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Economic Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Economic Outlook Global Growth Strengthens as U.S. & U.K. GDP Growth

More information

Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast

Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spain Spring 2010 Outlook for Spain Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Spring 2010 Finland Ireland Netherlands Belgium Germany Luxembourg Austria Slovakia France Slovenia Italy

More information

Postponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE

Postponed recovery. The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 INSEE CONJONCTURE INSEE CONJONCTURE CONJONCTURE IN FRANCE OCTOBER 2014 Postponed recovery The advanced economies posted a sluggish growth in Q2. While GDP rebounded in the United States and remained dynamic in the United

More information

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL. Market developments potentially requiring the use of Article 459 CRR

REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL. Market developments potentially requiring the use of Article 459 CRR EUROPEAN COMMISSION Brussels, 8.3.2017 COM(2017) 121 final REPORT FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND THE COUNCIL Market developments potentially requiring the use of Article 459 CRR EN

More information

What is the global economic outlook?

What is the global economic outlook? The outlook What is the global economic outlook? Paul van den Noord Counselor to the Chief Economist The outlook Real GDP growth, in per cent United States.... Euro area. -. -.. Japan -.... Total OECD....

More information

The Outlook for the European and the German Economy

The Outlook for the European and the German Economy The Outlook for the European and the German Economy Annual Economic Forum of the German American Chamber of Commerce Chicago January 26, 2012 Joachim Scheide, Kiel Institute for the World Economy Once

More information

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014

Eurozone. EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Eurozone EY Eurozone Forecast September 2014 Austria Belgium Cyprus Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Latvia Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain Outlook for

More information

APPENDIX: Country analyses

APPENDIX: Country analyses APPENDIX: Country analyses Appendix A Germany: Low economic momentum The economic situation in Germany continues to be lackluster in 2014. Strong growth in the first quarter was followed by a decline

More information

The crisis of the Sovereign Debt markets and its impact on the Banking System: the Italian case

The crisis of the Sovereign Debt markets and its impact on the Banking System: the Italian case The crisis of the Sovereign Debt markets and its impact on the Banking System: the Italian case January, 19 2012 Maria Cannata Director General - Public Debt Management Introduction In the case of Italy,

More information

Eurozone job crisis:

Eurozone job crisis: UNDER EMBARGO UNTIL 22:01 GMT TUESDAY 10 JULY 2012 Eurozone job crisis: Trends and policy responses Executive Summary INTERNATIONAL LABOUR ORGANIZATION INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR LABOUR STUDIES Executive

More information

Research US The outlook for US government debt

Research US The outlook for US government debt Investment Research General Market Conditions 3 September Research US The outlook for US government debt US net debt has risen fast during the recent recession, to more than from 36% in 7. Compared with

More information

Greece. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands

Greece. Eurozone rebalancing. EY Eurozone Forecast June Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain. Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands EY Forecast June 215 rebalancing recovery Outlook for Delay in agreeing reform agenda has undermined the recovery Published in collaboration with Highlights The immediate economic outlook for continues

More information

Overcoming the crisis

Overcoming the crisis Princeton, Oct 24 th, 2011 Overcoming the crisis backwards induction approach: 1. Diagnosis how did we get there? Run-up phase Crisis phase 2. Give long-run perspective Banking landscape (ESBies, European

More information

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession

Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a protracted recession EUROPEAN COMMISSION Olli REHN Vice-President of the European Commission and member of the Commission responsible for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro Spring Forecast: slowly recovering from a

More information

Eurozone. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast

Eurozone. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Summer edition June 212 Welcome Mark Otty Area Managing Partner, Europe, Middle East, India and Africa Confidence is a keyword for the future of the Eurozone, perhaps even

More information

Eurozone. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast

Eurozone. Ernst & Young Eurozone Forecast Eurozone Ernst & Young Eurozone Summer edition June 212 Welcome Mark Otty Area Managing Partner, Europe, Middle East, India and Africa Confidence is a keyword for the future of the Eurozone, perhaps even

More information

Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency

Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency Deposit Flight From Europe Banks Eroding Common Currency An accelerating flight of deposits from banks in four European countries is jeopardizing the renewal of economic growth and undermining a main tenet

More information

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

Europe Outlook. Third Quarter 2015 Europe Outlook Third Quarter 2015 Main messages 1 2 3 4 5 Moderation of global growth and slowdown in emerging economies, with downside risks The recovery continues in the eurozone, but still marked by

More information

International Money and Banking: 17. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Crisis

International Money and Banking: 17. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Crisis International Money and Banking: 17. Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Crisis Karl Whelan School of Economics, UCD Spring 2018 Karl Whelan (UCD) Exchange Rate Regimes and the Euro Spring 2018 1 / 31 Part

More information

By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.*

By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist of Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC.* For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com

More information

22 EconSouth Fourth Quarter Shocks Unbalance the Global Economy

22 EconSouth Fourth Quarter Shocks Unbalance the Global Economy 22 EconSouth Fourth Quarter Shocks Unbalance the Global Economy A number of shocks slowed the global economic recovery in. Emerging economies on the whole fared better than the advanced economies, but

More information

Market Commentary May 2015

Market Commentary May 2015 Investment Markets in May 2015 Highlights A sharp rise in bond yields in the first half of May led to increased volatility in equity markets. European sovereign bond yields fell back at month end as the

More information

The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN. Economic Outlook. Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig. handelsagenten.at

The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN. Economic Outlook. Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig. handelsagenten.at The GLOBAL and the EUROPEAN Malaga, 19th May 2016 Christian Rebernig Economic Outlook handelsagenten.at The influences in 2016 handelsagenten.at 2 Growth forecasts 2015, 2016 and 2017 World 3,1 / 3,2 /

More information

The outlook for the global economy in 2012

The outlook for the global economy in 2012 The Eurozone Crisis Still Threatens Global Growth Paolo Guerrieri Professor of Economics, University of Rome Sapienza; Professor, College of Europe, Bruges The outlook for the global economy in 2012 is

More information

Recent liquidity injections by the European Central Bank have brought relief to the banking system and sovereign bond markets.

Recent liquidity injections by the European Central Bank have brought relief to the banking system and sovereign bond markets. OBSERVATION TD Economics February 29, 2 DELEVERAGING BEGETS WEAK ECONOMIES ACROSS EURO ZONE PERIPHERY Highlights Recent liquidity injections by the European Central Bank have brought relief to the banking

More information