Business Region Göteborg
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1 Business Region Göteborg
2 Slight slowdown ahead for the region s important markets REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST (IN PERCENT) FOR SWEDEN AND SOME OF THE GOTHENBURG REGION S KEY EXPORT MARKETS COUNTRY SHARE OF REGION S EXPORTS Sweden* 2.7% 2.0% USA 14% 2.9% 2.7% Belgium 13% 1.9% 1.7% Norway 8% 2.1% 2.1% Germany 7% 2.5% 2.0% United Kingdom 7% 1.6% 1.5% Denmark 6% 2.0% 1.9% China 6% 6.6% 6.4% Finland 5% 2.6% 2.0% Netherlands 5% 3.2% 2.4% France 4% 2.1% 2.0% GDP growth for Gothenburg region s 10 largest export markets (weighted by export share) 75% 2.7% 2.4% Eurozone 2.4% 2.0% World 3.9% 3.9% World trade, goods and services 5.1% 4.7% Average change in oil price per barrel 18.0% - 6.5% * Average of the five last forecasts in the summary produced by the National Institute of Economic Research based on data from The Swedish Trade Union Confederation LO, SEB, Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions (SKL), The Riksbank and Unionen. Source: IMF, April 2018
3 Economic boom continues yet with slightly cooler expectations ECONOMIC TENDENCY INDICATOR FOR THE GOTHENBURG REGION 100 Indicator spring 2000 autumn 2001 spring Spring Autumn Forecast autumn autumn 2002 spring 2002 autumn 2003 spring 2003 autumn 2004 spring 2004 autumn 2005 spring 2005 autumn 2006 spring 2006 autumn 2007 spring 2007 autumn 2008 spring 2008 autumn 2009 spring 2009 autumn 2010 spring 2010 autumn 2011 spring 2011 autumn 2012 spring 2012 autumn 2013 spring 2013 autumn 2014 spring 2014 autumn 2015 spring 2015 autumn 2016 spring 2016 autumn 2017 spring 2017 autumn 2018 spring 2018 autumn Source: Region Västra Götaland and Statistics Sweden
4 Many sectors experience a booming state ECONOMIC TENDENCY INDICATOR PER INDUSTRY IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION Food Durable consumer goods Electronics Manufacturing total Chemicals Gothenburg region total Construction Machinery Wholesale IT consultants Business services Automotive Economic boom 7 17 Actual spring Forecast autumn Indicator Source: Region Västra Götaland and Statistics Sweden
5 Eight years with job growth EMPLOYMENT INDICATOR - PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN NUMBER OF EMPLOYED ON ANNUAL BASIS 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1.9% 1.8% 0% -1% -2% -3% Gothenburg region Sweden -4% 2018 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1 Source: Statistics Sweden
6 Lowest unemployment rate since 2008 UNEMPLOYED AND PEOPLE IN LABOUR MARKET POLICY PROGRAMMES - PERCENTAGE OF THE REGISTERED WORK FORCE AGED 16 TO 64 11% 10% 9% 9.6% 8% 7% 7.3% 6.8% 6% 5% 4% Malmö region Sweden excl. metropolitan regions Sweden Stockholm region Gothenburg region 5.8% 5.4% 3% Source: Swedish Public Employment Service and Statistics Sweden
7 Record-high number of new vacancies and few redundancies NEW VACANCIES FOR PERMANENT POSITIONS AND REDUNDANCIES IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION - THREE-MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE New vacancies Redundancies Source: Swedish Public Employment Service
8 Record low vacancy rate for offices VACANCY RATE FOR THE OFFICE MARKET IN GOTHENBURG 20% 18% Central Business District 16% 14% 12% Rest of Inner City Norra Älvstranden Gothenburg total 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 3.6% 2.7% 1.5% 0.9% 2018 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1 Source: JLL
9 Short-term prices for flats slightly upwards again PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF FLATS AND HOUSES, MAY 2018 COMPARED TO 1, 3, 6 AND 12 MONTHS BACK IN TIME HOUSING TYPE CITY/REGION 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 12 MONTHS APR MAY 2018 FEB MAY 2018 NOV MAY 2018 MAY MAY 2018 Flats Gothenburg 0.5% 2.3% -0.1% -4.7% Stockholm -0.4% 1.1% 0.6% -8.7% Malmö 2.6% 2.1% 1.0% -2.9% Sweden -0.1% 1.1% 0.1% -7.1% Houses Gothenburg region -0.6% 0.6% 3.3% -2.6% Stockholm region -0.4% -0.8% -0.3% -7.9% Malmö region 0.7% 1.2% 4.7% 0.6% Sweden 0.2% 0.9% 3.1% -2.0% Source: Valueguard
10 Strong increase in the private sector s wage sum REAL GROWTH IN WAGE SUMS FROM THE PRIVATE SECTOR - CHANGE COMPARED TO THE SAME QUARTER PREVIOUS YEAR 8% 6% 4% 6.8% 4.4% 2% 0% -2% Gothenburg region Sweden -4% 2018 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1 Source: Statistics Sweden
11 Strong population growth continues POPLUATION GROWTH PER QUARTER IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION Quarter 4 Quarter 3 Quarter 2 Quarter Source: Statistics Sweden
12 TABLE SUMMARISING THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION COMPARISON WITH CORRESPONDING PERIOD THE PREVIOUS YEAR INDICATOR CHANGE Economic tendency, spring units Total wage sum (real SEK billion), quarter % Private sector wage sum (real SEK billion), quarter % People in employment, quarter 1 531, , % Unemployment years, May 5.4% 5.5% -0.1%-points Unemployment among foreign-born years, May 15.5% 16.1% -0.6%-points Unemployment years, May 5.6% 5.9% -0.3%-points Unemployment among foreign-born years, May 21.2% 23.9% -2.7%-points Job vacancies, March May (monthly average) 9,618 8, % Redundancies, March May (monthly average) % Vacancy rate for office space in Gothenburg, quarter 1 3.6% 5.7% -2.1%-points Population, quarter 1 1,015,974 1,001, % New car registrations, quarter 1 10,615 10, % Air passengers, quarter 1 (monthly average) 513, , % Guest nights, quarter 1 (monthly average) 301, , % Source: Region Västra Götaland, Statistics Sweden, Swedish Public Employment Service, JLL, The Swedish Transport Agency and The Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth
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