Business Region Göteborg
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1 Business Region Göteborg
2 The outside world levels out and Sweden's economy slows down REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST (IN PERCENT) FOR SWEDEN AND SOME OF THE GOTHENBURG REGION S KEY EXPORT MARKETS COUNTRY SHARE OF REGION S EXPORTS Sweden* 2.3% 1.9% Belgium 12.5 % 1.5 % 1.5 % USA 12.0 % 2.9 % 2.5 % Norway 10.0 % 2.1 % 2.1 % Germany 8.0 % 1.9 % 1.9 % China 7.0 % 6.6 % 6.2 % Denmark 7.0 % 2.0 % 1.9 % Finland 5.5 % 2.6 % 1.8 % United Kingdom 5.4 % 1.4 % 1.5 % Netherlands 4.0 % 2.8 % 2.6 % France 3.7 % 1.6 % 1.6 % GDP growth for Gothenburg region s 10 largest export markets (weighted by export share) 75.1% 1.9 % 1.8 % Eurozone 2.0 % 1.9 % World 3.7 % 3.7 % World trade, goods and services 4.2 % 4.0 % Average change in oil price per barrel 31.4 % 0.9 % Source: IMF, October 2018 * Average of the five last forecasts in the summary produced by the National Institute of Economic Research based on data from Swedish National Debt Office, The Riksbank, National Institute of Economic Research, Danske Bank and HUI Research.
3 The booming state has subsided * The interval -100 to -40 denotes a state of recession, -39 to -16 shows an economic tendency that is weaker than normal, -15 to 15 indicates a state of normal economic tendency, 16 to 39 shows an economic tendency that is stronger than normal, whereas the interval 40 to 100 denotes a state of economic boom. ECONOMIC TENDENCY INDICATOR FOR THE GOTHENBURG REGION Indicator autumn 2001 spring 2001 autumn 2002 spring Spring Autumn Forecast spring autumn 2003 spring 2003 autumn 2004 spring 2004 autumn 2005 spring 2005 autumn 2006 spring 2006 autumn 2007 spring 2007 autumn 2008 spring 2008 autumn 2009 spring 2009 autumn 2010 spring 2010 autumn 2011 spring 2011 autumn 2012 spring 2012 autumn 2013 spring 2013 autumn 2014 spring 2014 autumn 2015 spring 2015 autumn 2016 spring 2016 autumn 2017 spring 2017 autumn 2018 spring 2018 autumn 2019 spring Source: Region Västra Götaland and Statistics Sweden
4 Many booming industries, yet the economic tendency has subsided ECONOMIC TENDENCY INDICATOR PER INDUSTRY IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION Economic boom Durable consumer goods 0 Food 15 Actual autumn 2018 Chemicals 28 Forecast spring 2019 Manufacturing total 31 Gothenburg region total 34 Electronics 40 Wholesale 44 Construction 46 Machinery 46 Business services 46 Automotive 54 IT consultants 65 Indicator Source: Region Västra Götaland and Statistics Sweden
5 Job continues to gain momentum EMPLOYMENT INDICATOR - PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN NUMBER OF EMPLOYED ON ANNUAL BASIS 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2.6% 1.6% 0% -1% -2% -3% Gothenburg region Sweden -4% 2018 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 3 Source: Statistics Sweden
6 Lowest unemployment, yet great exclusion UNEMPLOYED AND PEOPLE IN LABOUR MARKET POLICY PROGRAMMES - PERCENTAGE OF THE WORK FORCE AGED 16 TO 64 12% 10% 9.7% 8% 6% 7.2% 6.9% 5.8% 5.5% 4% 2% Malmö region Sweden excl. metro regions Sweden Stockholm region Gothenburg region 0% Source: Swedish Public Employment Service and Statistics Sweden
7 Redundancies up and new vacancies still hard to fill NEW VACANCIES FOR PERMANENT POSITIONS AND REDUNDANCIES IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION - THREE-MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE New vacancies Redundancies Source: Swedish Public Employment Service
8 More office projects started in Gothenburg VACANCY RATE FOR THE OFFICE MARKET IN GOTHENBURG 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% Central Business District Rest of Inner City Norra Älvstranden Gothenburg total 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 4.8% 4.5% 3.1% 0.5% 2018 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 3 Source: JLL
9 Prices for flats in Gothenburg see the largest decrease PRICE DEVELOPMENT OF FLATS AND HOUSES, OCTOBER 2018 COMPARED TO 1, 3, 6 AND 12 MONTHS BACK IN TIME HOUSING TYPE CITY/REGION 1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 12 MONTHS SEP OCT 2018 JUL OCT 2018 APR OCT 2018 OCT OCT 2018 Flats Gothenburg 0.5 % 0.2 % 0.2 % 3.8 % Stockholm 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.6 % 2.6 % Malmö 1.3 % 1.5 % 4.1 % 0.6 % Sweden 0.4 % 0.2 % 0.4 % 2.9 % Houses Gothenburg region 0.3 % 3.5 % 0.7 % 0.8 % Stockholm region 0.7 % 0.1 % 0.4 % 4.2 % Malmö region 1.1 % 3.9 % 3.3 % 4.3 % Sweden 1.2 % 1.0 % 0.8 % 0.5 % Source: Valueguard
10 Population continues to grow strongly POPLUATION GROWTH PER QUARTER IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION Quarter 4 Quarter 3 Quarter 2 Quarter Source: Statistics Sweden
11 TABLE SUMMARISING THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN THE GOTHENBURG REGION COMPARISON WITH CORRESPONDING PERIOD THE PREVIOUS YEAR INDICATOR CHANGE Economic tendency, autumn units People in employment, quarter 3 552, , % Unemployment years, October 5.5 % 5.6 % 0.1 %-points Unemployment among domestically born years, October 2.8 % 2.9 % 0.1 %-points Unemployment among foreign-born years, October 15.7 % 16.4 % 0.7 %-points Unemployment years, October 6.1 % 6.5 % 0.4 %-points Unemployment among domestically born years, October 3.7 % 4.2 % 0.5 %-points Unemployment among foreign-born years, October 23.0 % 24.1 % 1.1 %-points Job vacancies, August October (monthly average) 8,597 8, % Redundancies, August October (monthly average) % Vacancy rate for office space in Gothenburg, quarter % 5.3 % 0.8 %-points Population, quarter 3 1,025,355 1,009, % New car registrations, quarter 3 7,073 10, % Air passengers, quarter 3 (monthly average) 535, , % Guest nights, quarter 3 (monthly average) 397, , % Source: Region Västra Götaland, Statistics Sweden, Swedish Public Employment Service, JLL, The Swedish Transport Agency and The Swedish Agency for Economic and Regional Growth
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