New Dimension for Offshore Investment

Transcription

1 New Dimension for Offshore Investment 1 September 2015 Dr. Kongkiat Opaswongkarn Chief Executive Officer Asia Plus Group Holdings PCL

2 Why Invest Globally? PROS Diversification Products (Equities / Fixed Incomes / Mutual Funds / Property Assets) Markets Currencies CONS FX Risk Political Risk OBSTACLES Capital Gains Tax 2

3 Market Cap Comparison Rank Country Market Cap (Billion USD) % of World % of GDP World 60, USA 22, China 5, Japan 4, Hong Kong 3, ,505 5 UK 3, France 1, Germany 1, Canada 1, Switzerland 1, India 1, South Korea 1, Australia Taiwan Spain Italy Brazil Saudi Arabia Singapore Russia Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Philippines As of 24 August

4 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Millions Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Macro View - USA GDP Growth YoY Unemployment Rate ISM Manufacturing Housing Starts Dollar Index Export Growth YoY As of July

5 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Stock Market - US S&P 500 Index 2, , , , , , , S&P 500 P/E (RHS) As of 24 August

6 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Stock Market - US Nasdaq Index 5, , , , , , , , , Nasdaq P/E (RHS) As of 24 August

7 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Macro View - Europe GDP Growth YoY Unemployment Rate Manufacturing PMI Consumer Price Index YoY EUR/USD Export Growth YoY As of July

8 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Stock Market - Europe Euro Stoxx 600 Index Euro Stoxx 600 P/E (RHS) As of 24 August

9 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Macro View - Japan GDP Growth YoY Unemployment Rate Debt as Percent of GDP Consumer Price Index YoY USD/JPY Export Growth YoY As of July

10 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Stock Market - Japan Nikkei 225 Index 25, , , , , , , , , ,000 5 Nikkei 225 P/E (RHS) As of 24 August

11 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Trillion Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Macro View - China GDP Growth YoY Manufacturing PMI House Price Growth Tier 1 YoY USD/CNY 50 Export Growth YoY Outstanding Balance of Margin Purchase and Debt Payment As of July

12 Feb-95 Feb-96 Feb-97 Feb-98 Feb-99 Feb-00 Feb-01 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Stock Market - China Shanghai Composite Index 7, , ,200 4, ,200 2, , Shanghai Composite P/E (RHS) As of 24 August

13 Market Valuations Forward PER USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand Current PER 12M Forward PER Forward EPS Growth Data as of 24 Aug USA - S&P500 Europe - Stoxx 600 Japan China Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Thailand EPS Growth 2015F EPS Growth 2016F Thailand data from ASPS Research Date as of 13 Aug 15 13

14 Sectoral P/E Valuations Price / Earning S&P 500 Stoxx Europe 600 Nikkei Shanghai Composite Financials Technology Consumer Discretionary Telecom Consumer Staples Healthcare Energy Utilities Industrials Materials SET Data as of 24 August 15 14

15 Investment Ideas 15

16 Example of Asset Allocation Sector Focus USA Financials China Technology Japan Europe Europe Japan Financials Consumer Discretionary Financials & Insurance Automobiles USA China Financials & Insurance Technology 16

17 Selected Industries / Major Industries Banking Insurance Technology Automobile Retail Consumer Discretionary 17

18 Financials and Banking Attractive Valuations Low P/E, P/BV Strong Balance Sheet Recovery Indicators Higher Interest Rates, Higher NIMs upon Recovery 18

19 Banking Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) WELLS FARGO US JPMORGAN US ING NETHERLANDS SOCIETE GENERALE FRANCE CREDIT SUISSE SWISS UNICREDIT ITALY MITSUBISHI UFJ JAPAN SUMITOMO JAPAN ICBC CHINA KASIKORN BANK THAI SIAM COMM BANK THAI Data as of 24 August 15 19

20 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) WELLS FARGO US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 20

21 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) ICBC CHINA Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 21

22 Insurance Attractive Valuations High Dividend Yield Higher Market Returns, Higher Profit Resilience of Investment, Low Volatility Value of New Policy Growth 22

23 Insurance Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) AIG US SWISS RE SWISS ZURICH SWISS ALLIANZ GERMAN AXA FRANCE AVIVA UK TOKIO MARINE JAPAN AIA HK PING AN CHINA CHINA LIFE CHINA BANGKOK LIFE THAI Data as of 24 August 15 23

24 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) AIG US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 24

25 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) TOKIO MARINE JAPAN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 25

26 Technology Major Investment Theme High Growth Potential (Online vs. Offline) Product Innovation Mega Trend Social Media, e-commerce, Wearable Devices 26

27 Technology Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) APPLE US FACEBOOK US ALIBABA US GOOGLE US AMAZON US NETFLIX US SOFTBANK JAPAN TENCENT HK SAMSUNG S.KOREA Data as of 24 August 15 27

28 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) APPLE US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 28

29 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) FACEBOOK US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 29

30 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) GOOGLE US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 30

31 Automobile Attractive Valuations Economic Recovery Plan Model, Technology Innovations Auto Sales Reaching Record High 31

32 Automobile Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) GENERAL MOTORS US FORD US TESLA US DAIMLER GERMAN BMW GERMAN VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN PORSCHE GERMAN TOYOTA JAPAN HONDA JAPAN NISSAN JAPAN Data as of 24 August 15 32

33 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) DAIMLER GERMAN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 33

34 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) VOLKSWAGEN GERMAN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 34

35 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) TOYOTA JAPAN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 35

36 Retail Attractive Valuations Steady Growth Continues in the US Bottoming Out in the UK and Europe Worldwide Expansion 36

37 Retail Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) WALMART US COSTCO US MACY US HOME DEPOT US CARREFOUR FRANCE SEVEN & I JAPAN CPALL THAI CENTRAL THAI Data as of 24 August 15 37

38 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) WALMART US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 38

39 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) SEVEN & I JAPAN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 39

40 Consumer Discretionary Economic Recovery High Profit Margin Business Beneficiary of EUR Depreciation 40

41 Consumer Discretionary Valuations COMPANY MARKET MARKET CAP ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) STARBUCKS US DISNEY US NIKE US LVMH FRANCE HERMES FRANCE INDITEX SPAIN ADIDAS GERMAN FAST RETAILING JAPAN Data as of 24 August 15 41

42 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) LVMH FRANCE Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 42

43 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) STARBUCKS US Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 43

44 COMPANY MARKET MARKET ($, Billion) P/E P/BV DIV. YIELD (%) INDITEX SPAIN Scaled to reflect real performance of a stock Data as of 24 August 15 44

45 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) Diversification Lower Fees Trades Like a Stock 45

46 ETF Valuations ETF MARKET TICKER MARKET CAP ($, Billion) S&P 500 US SPY US 158 NASDAQ US QQQ US 35 EUROPE EUROPE HEDJ US 19 NIKKEI JAPAN 1321 JP 23 CHINA A50 CHINA 2823 HK 4 CHINA H-SHARE HK 2828 HK 6 Data as of 24 August 15 46

47 August-13 October-13 December-13 February-14 April-14 June-14 August-14 October-14 December-14 February-15 April-15 June-15 Mutual Funds - Europe AXA World Funds Flamlington Europe Real Estate Securities 17% Sector Allocation 6% 4% 5% 35% AXA World Funds Flamlington Europe Real Estate Securities is a master fund of ASP-EUPROP fund by Asset Plus Fund Performance % 110 Office Retail Residential Industrial Storage Others Performance (%) YTD 1Y 3Y Annualized 5Y Annualized Fund^ Benchmark ^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of July 2015 AXA World Funds - Framlington Europe Real Estate Securities FTSE EPRA NAREIT Deleloped Europe Capped / AXA

48 Mutual Funds US High Yield Bonds AXA World Funds US High Yield Bonds USD Fund Sector Allocation 14% 36% 10% 9% 7% 8% 8% 8% Energy Basic Industry Healthcare Services Media Telecom Capital Goods Others Source: AXA Performance (%) YTD 1Y 3Y Annualized 5Y Annualized Fund^ Benchmark ^ Master Fund Performance from AXA as of August

49 Mar-00 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-06 Mar-08 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Property Assets US and UK House Price Index UK Nationalwide House Price Index S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index Source: Data as of March

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