No more NEETs: identifying what works from local, national and international approaches. 26 November 2014

Transcription

1 No more NEETs: identifying what works from local, national and international approaches 26 November 2014

2 Welcome and introduction Chair: Jacquie Smallwood, Operations Director, Shaw Trust

3 Activity

4 Lost and found? Tackling youth unemployment Speaker: Rowan Foster, Director of Research, Inclusion

5 Lost and found? Tackling youth unemployment

6 We know the headlines near record youth unemployment...

7 During recessions, young fared much worse than older people

8 Worse still, long-term unemployment quadrupled in last decade

9 Areas: those with highest unemployment pre-recession saw largest rises... Local Authority level youth unemployment, 2008 and now

10 And no big surprises where those are Local Authority level youth unemployment, 2008 and now Limavady Derry Sandwell Hartlepool South Tyneside Merthyr Tydfil Blaenau Gwent Wolverhampton Redcar and Cleveland Knowsley Middlesbrough North Ayrshire Strabane Walsall Caerphilly Kingston upon Hull

11 Focusing in on Northern Ireland... Local Authority claimant unemployment, 2008 and now Strabane Derry Moyle Belfast Limavady Ards Carrickfergus

12 Collapse in youth employment even bigger than rise in unemployment...

13 Meaning inactivity has risen (a lot)

14 Which in GB is completely explained by education but not in NI

15 Looking more closely at inactivity in GB, one in ten not in learning or work

16 Youngest particularly affected by employment collapse, not explained by participation in ed.

17 ... And it s not just that they don t want to work increasingly they do

18 Which gives us a problem when they leave education: most never worked

19 A word on claimant unemployment: big divergence GB and NI the regime?

20 But remember: unemployment higher in GB than NI

21 In Ireland big challenge is longterm unemployment

22 And chances of getting work diminish rapidly after a year

23 So to recap: Youth unemployment has not gone away stubbornly high Long-term unemployment huge challenge, with fiscal, economic and social consequences Driven by collapse in employment : Pre-dates recession In and out of education Affecting youngest the most Poorest areas seen largest rises Inactivity still a problem, more so in NI Record numbers in education want to work but can t

24 So what can we do about it?!

25 The Government s five priorities... Building Engagement, Building Futures, Dec Raising educational attainment 2. Full participation in education or work for year olds Raising the Participation Age 3. Employer engagement Expansion of apprenticeships, work experience 4. Supporting those out of work to get into work Through Jobcentre Plus and Work Programme 5. Delivering the Youth Contract Wage subsidies, support for low qualified

26 But so far, this is mis-firing 1. Attainment will take time Participation NEET figures not coming down, concerns on course quality and transitions 3. Apprenticeships constant reform, traineeships not taking off 4. Work Programme performance picking up, but volumes now falling due to JSA falls 5. Youth Contract failing fewer than 5,000 subsidises in first year, City Deals taking control

27 Three priorities GB, NI, RoI, anywhere: 1. Clear accountabilities, objectives and (local) leadership 2. Relentless focus on youth engagement 3. Tackle long-term unemployment

28 1. Tackle complexity clear leadership, shared objectives critical. In GB: Work Programme City Deals Mandatory Work Activity Talent Match DWP Youth Contract Apprenticeships Work Choice Local Authority provision EFA Youth Contract DWP work experience Community Action Programme Traineeships JCP Flexible Support Fund SFA Support for Unemployed

29 I think you get a lot of information but it is just leaflets and that s it... It doesn t work...you get loads of information, I think the information and support is there but it s like giving you in the ingredients, but not teaching you how to cook. NEET, Male, 21

30 Which means... Common objectives around: Attainment Engagement Transition to employment Clear (local?) leadership to join this up a single system Mapping accountabilities, systems, funding, journeys learning from Community Budgets Employers employers employers

31 2. Relentless focus on youth engagement Schools don t advertise that there are other opportunities for young people outside of just college. There are lots of opportunities like apprenticeships and schools don t support young people in looking for these things. They need to give young people an alternative, and confidence that it isn t just college as the next step. NEET, Male, 19

32 What young people say in NI... From NEET conference fringe event: Not enough jobs (and/ or can t find them) Lost confidence, too much stigma System is too complicated Not NEETs! Don t trust education system Do listen to their families

33 Which means: Personalised and focused on interests, skills e.g. employability training with sport or arts Friendly, approachable and engaging building confidence Focused on wider issues and in particular barriers around confidence and motivation Go to young people, don t wait for them social media, housing, youth provision Jobs at the heart of it advisers who get jobs market; good quality work experience; exposure to employers; job brokering and matching even when learning

34 3. Tackle long-term unemployment Work Programme Underperformed... (but not as much as some claim) DWP handed back to Treasury over 400 million in underspends over two years Youth Contract Take-up below 5,000 in first year Probably 70%+ will be deadweight So net impact of 2-3,000? We re spending less per person on support for longterm unemployed than any time since 1990s

35 Wage subsidies always promise more than they deliver Low take-up: Six Month Offer subsidy 8,400 payments for young people in 15 months of operation ( ) New Deal Employment Option averaged around 10,000 payments a year ( ) Employer NICs holiday 2,300 payments in first year (1996/7) May be awareness, level of subsidy, or targeting because of... Deadweight risks estimated at 35% to 70% in New Deal, higher in some others (up to 85%) But long-run benefits for individuals who do get them

36 Training is expensive, mixed results Clear correlation between skills and likelihood of being in work And gets worse the longer you are unemployed But training for the unemployed has had disappointing results lock-in risks often outweigh benefits True in UK, US, France, OECD... May be higher returns from employability skills and basic skills than vocational training... But evidence suggests that on-the-job training with work experience can be effective

37 Our research for BIS suggests training works best when it s: Highly targeted Lowest qualified, longest out of work, least work experience Small scale large scale programmes have always done badly Focused on work experience and transitions In workplace, linked to labour market needs, involving employers, building in support to find work Addressing wider barriers travel, childcare, health, attitudes

38 Role for a jobs guarantee? Clear risks that some people can be worse off if diverted into temporary, highly subsidised jobs... So often highly targeted but can reduce take-up Largest returns for low objective employability StepUP pilot led to 23pp increase in employment probability for low objective/ high subjective group Often negative returns for those closer to labour market And StepUP found much smaller impacts for youth

39 A potted history... Training and job creation/ work experience Community Programme Community Action New Deal for Young People Young Person s Guarantee/ FJF Adult Employment Subsidy Young Workers Scheme Workstart National pilot Insurance Contributions holiday Six Month Offer Youth Contract Wage subsidies New Deal employer options + a wealth of international evidence

40 Future Jobs Fund worked

41 Why did FJF work? Inclusion evaluation: Popular with participants, engaged employers Highly targeted Clear focus on transitions to work But... not always focused on sustainability, poor engagement of private sector, training often inconsistent Value for money (DWP): Net cost to govt 3,100 per participant Net employer benefit 6,850; young person 4, Comparable/ better than New Deal for Young People

42 Conclusions role for inquiry into: What works in joining up support, leadership, accountabilities Trends in engagement Responses to long-term unemployment Activation, inactivity, ongoing support Employer engagement Subsidising and incentivising employment Job Guarantees

43 Can international approaches work at a local level? Speaker: Ben Dixon, Senior Manager, UKCES

44 Youth Unemployment: International Comparisons Ben Dixon UK Commission for Employment & Skills

45 UKCES Our Commissioners

46 Greece Spain Croatia Italy Cyprus Portugal Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Hungary Ireland France Euro 18 Belgium Romania Sweden EU 28 Latvia Lithuania Slovenia UK Finland Czech Estonia Lux. Malta Denmark Neth. Austria Germany Youth unemployment an EU wide problem? % % 23.5% 20.7% % 0

47 German level adult unemployment & Eurozone level youth unemployment 24.0% 20.4% 10.7% 7.8% 10.5% 5.1% 5.6% 8.0% 4.4% 5.6% Eurozone 18 Germany Neth. Austria UK

48 UK vs Germany: Ratio of youth to adult unemployment UK, Germany,

49 UK Unemployment by age group

50 15-19 year olds in work or on an apprenticeship Share of students who have a job or are on an apprenticeship Netherlands Switzerland Denmark Australia Iceland Austria Canada Norway New Zealand Germany United Kingdom United States OECD average Finland Sweden Ireland France Korea Belgium Spain Portugal Italy 0 8% 5% 8% 17% 18% 14% 13% 13% 8% 8% 7% 5% 4% 2% 2% 1% 7% 5% 26% 25% 37% 38% 29% 33% 17% 5% 18% 14% 13% 13% 52% 42% 49% 26% 25% 25% 22% 7% 38% 34% 33% 44% Students with jobs apprenticeships 52% 50% 49%

51 Denmark 25.0 Active labour market policies. > 4% GDP spent on labour market intervention Generous unemployment insurance Flexible labour market on Anglosphere model

52 Netherlands Pre-16 vocational training with significant work element Over half go through vocational route Co-operation between trade unions and employers. Personalised employment & development plan for all unemployed to age

53 Germany 25.0 Institutionalised dual apprenticeship system Vocational route rivals academia Employer involvement Significant welfare reforms in 2000s Hartz I, II, III & IV

54 Summary Youth unemployment is DOWN Compared with the rest of EU, UK s rate is good...but that s not saying much. Job creation is in high skill and low skill roles. Countries with low youth unemployment tend to have; More earning and learning with strong transitions Co-operation between employers, TUs and government Active labour market intervention Employer involvement A different approach for young people. A growing economy!

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56 Looking at what works: examining the case studies Speakers: Katarina Gardiner, Senior Policy Officer Skills, Suffolk County Council

57 Selling it to Employers Speaker: Emily Armitstead, Director of Business Engagement, Spearhead

58 No more NEETs: identifying what works from local, national and international approaches 26 November 2014