Winter 2008/09 Vol. 4 No. 4

Transcription

1 SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA UNIVERSITY Promoting Economic Development in Southeast Louisiana Winter 2008/09 Vol. 4 No. 4 NATIONAL U.S. Economy STATE Louisiana Economy Coincident Indexes REGIONAL Employment Retail Sales Building Permits Economic Impact of the 2008 Special Olympics Louisiana State Summer Games NATIONAL U.S. Economy Dr. A. M. M. Jamal Professor of Management The U. S. real gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of 0.5% during the third quarter of 2008 and rose 0.7% during the past twelve months. Total civilian employment for the third quarter fell 0.3% compared to the corresponding period in A group of forecasters surveyed by The Economist magazine predicted the U.S. economy to grow 1.3% in 2008 and shrink 1.0% in An alternative set of forecasts published by the Wachovia Bank indicate a growth rate of 1.1% in 2008, a drop of 2% in 2009, and a gain of 1.4% in LOCAL Livingston St. Helena St. Tammany Tangipahoa Washington SOUTHEASTERN Staff Highlight David Wyld PROFIT and ASSET Students Present Work Southeast Louisiana Business Center Activities CONTACT US Southeastern Louisiana University Business Research Ctr Martens Drive Hammond, LA Phone: (985) Fax: (985) brc@selu.edu EMPLOYMENT UNITED STATES (Numbers in Thousands) Labor Force 153, , , , , , , , , , , ,732 % Change vs Prior Year 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.8% Total Employment 146, , , , , , , , , , , ,255 % Change vs Prior Year 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% -0.1% 0.4% 0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -0.2% -0.7% Total Nonfarm Emp. 137, , , , , , , , , , , ,020 % Change vs Prior Year 1.0% 0.9% 0.8% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.6% Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% Change vs Prior Year 0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.4% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Labor Force 153, , , ,729 % Change vs Prior Year 0.8% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% Total Employment 146, , , ,517 % Change vs Prior Year 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% -0.3% Total Nonfarm Emp. 138, , , ,331 % Change vs Prior Year 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% -0.3% Unemployment Rate 4.8% 4.9% 5.3% 6.0% Change vs Prior Year 0.3% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 150, , , , ,000 Total Employment (000s) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2 STATE Louisiana Economy Dr. A. M. M. Jamal Professor of Management Louisiana personal income for the third quarter of 2008 contracted 1.0% (equivalent to an annual decline of 3.8%) compared to the previous quarter, but grew 2.5% over the third quarter of Total state employment for the third quarter of 2008 rose 0.5% compared to the previous quarter and grew 1.1% over the same period in The unemployment rate for the third quarter was 4.6%, compared to 3.9% in the previous quarter and 3.8% for the third quarter of Although the state is experiencing a rise in unemployment, Louisiana s unemployment rate is still far below that of the nation, which reached 6.0% in the third quarter. EMPLOYMENT LOUISIANA (Numbers in Thousands) Labor Force 2,003 2,010 2,017 2,012 2,008 2,017 2,019 2,008 2,012 2,010 2,049 2,054 % Change vs Prior Year 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 2.5% 2.6% Total Employment 1,932 1,935 1,937 1,933 1,933 1,926 1,937 1,929 1,935 1,931 1,953 1,947 % Change vs Prior Year 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 0.5% 1.2% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.4% 1.2% Total Nonfarm Emp. 1,936 1,939 1,941 1,939 1,940 1,940 1,942 1,944 1,948 1,947 1,957 1,941 % Change vs Prior Year 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.4% Unemployment Rate 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.0% 3.7% 4.5% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.7% 5.2% Change vs Prior Year -0.6% -0.5% -0.1% 0.2% -0.1% 0.6% 0.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 1.0% 1.3% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Labor Force 2,010 2,012 2,013 2,038 % Change vs Prior Year 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 2.0% Total Employment 1,935 1,930 1,934 1,944 % Change vs Prior Year 1.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% Total Nonfarm Emp. 1,939 1,940 1,945 1,948 % Change vs Prior Year 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% 1.0% Unemployment Rate 3.8% 4.1% 3.9% 4.6% Change vs Prior Year -0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% Source: Louisiana Department of Labor, Labor Market Statistics 2, , , ,850 Total Employment (000s) Total Employment Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2005 May Jun 2006 Jul Aug 2007 Sep Oct Nov Dec Southeastern Louisiana University 2

3 STATE Coincident Indexes Herb Holloway Research Economist The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produces a monthly coincident index for each of the 50 states. As described on their web site: The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state s index matches long-term growth in its GDP. A dynamic single-factor model is used to create the state indexes. The method involves a system of five major equations: one equation for each input variable and one equation for an underlying (latent) factor that is reflected in each of the indicator (input) variables. The underlying factor represents the state coincident index. The model and the input variables are consistent across the 50 states, so the state indexes are comparable to one another. The chart below illustrates the coincident indexes from for Louisiana and its three neighboring states (AR, MS, TX), along with California, Michigan, and Florida for comparison. The Katrina/Rita impacts on Louisiana s economy are evident, as are the varying effects of the current recession on the different states. Although the index declined for all 50 states in December 2008, Louisiana was one of only three states where the index increased for the 4th quarter of 2008 (with North Dakota and Wyoming) State Coincident Indexes Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia LA AR MS TX CA MI FL Jan 05 Apr 05 Jul 05 Oct 05 Jan 06 Apr 06 Jul 06 Oct 06 Jan 07 Apr 07 Jul 07 Oct 07 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Southeastern Louisiana University 3

4 REGIONAL Northshore Employment Dr. A. M. M. Jamal Professor of Management Total employment in the Northshore Region (the five parishes of St. Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington, Livingston and St. Helena) rose 0.8% during the third quarter of 2008 and was 2.1% higher than the third quarter of All of the parishes except Washington experienced gains in employment when compared with the previous quarter. The unemployment rate for the third quarter of 2008 was 4.5%. In comparison, unemployment rates for both the previous quarter and the third quarter of last year were 3.8%. (Note: All regional and parish employment analysis is based on unadjusted employment data. Seasonally-adjusted data are not available at the parish level.) The total civilian work force rose 1.5% over the second quarter and 2.9% compared to the third quarter of EMPLOYMENT NORTHSHORE REGION Labor Force 245, , , , , , , , , , , ,860 % Change vs Prior Year 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 2.0% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 3.6% 3.2% Total Employment 237, , , , , , , , , , , ,169 % Change vs Prior Year 2.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.1% 1.8% 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 2.7% 1.9% Unemployment Rate 3.1% 3.2% 3.6% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 4.6% 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% Change vs Prior Year -0.4% -0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.1% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT ,000 Labor Force 245, , , , ,000 % Change vs Prior Year 1.9% 1.3% 1.8% 2.9% 230,000 Total Employment 237, , , ,274 % Change vs Prior Year 2.2% 0.9% 1.6% 2.1% 220,000 Unemployment Rate 3.3% 3.8% 3.7% 4.5% 210,000 Change vs Prior Year -0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.8% Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program Total Employment Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Southeastern Louisiana University 4

5 REGIONAL Estimated Retail Sales in the Northshore Region The volume of retail sales reflects the level of business activity in a region, an is an important measure of the economic vigor of the Northshore. Total value of taxable sales in the region fell 6.9% from the previous quarter and 8.1% from the third quarter of Northshore retail sales fell the last five consecutive months (May 2008 September 2008), but third quarter results varied widely among the five parishes. St. Tammany and Washington parish sales declined significantly compared to 2007, Tangipahoa was down less than 1%, and Livingston and St. Helena saw increases of 1.6% and 8.7%, respectively. ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES NORTHSHORE REGION Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Change vs Prior Month -7.3% 2.3% 27.0% -29.4% 6.8% 13.6% -8.2% 0.7% 11.2% -10.7% -5.3% 1.9% % Change vs. Prior Year 0.1% -1.5% 3.8% -2.3% 6.4% -4.5% 0.2% -5.9% -3.8% -8.8% -6.8% -8.5% Quarterly Average Sales $ $ $ $ % Change vs. Prior Quarter 2.6% -9.4% 6.1% -6.9% % Change vs Prior Year 1.0% -0.5% -3.2% -8.1% Note: Washington Parish received a one-time payment of approximately $2 million of use taxes in July 2007, the result of an audit finding covering the previous 3 years. Sources: Livingston Parish School Board - Sales and Use Tax Division, St. Helena Parish Sheriff's Office, St. Tammany Parish Sheriff's Office - Sales and Use Tax Department, Tangipahoa Parish School Board - Sales and Use Tax Division, Washington Parish Sheriff's Office - Sales and Use Tax Department Building Permits in the Northshore Region The value of building permits is usually a leading indicator of the construction activity during the coming months. The value of residential building permits in the region for the third quarter of 2008 fell 28.6% compared to the third quarter of 2007, projecting a major decline in construction activities for the coming months. This reflects a slowdown in post-katrina reconstruction and the general decline in construction activities nationwide. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS NORTHSHORE REGION Total Units % Change Last Year -38.8% -58.8% -72.5% -60.3% -48.3% -37.0% -33.6% -58.3% -2.5% -33.7% -22.0% -20.9% Value ($000s) 50,362 45,402 39,841 37,361 25,440 43,622 43,848 33,249 47,425 41,884 42,837 30,222 % Change Last Year -36.4% -31.5% -70.1% -64.0% -51.5% -38.6% -52.9% -54.8% -9.2% -44.5% -15.9% -13.0% Unincorp. Units % Change Last Year -35.8% -60.1% -73.7% -48.4% -44.0% -33.1% -29.2% -63.5% -36.6% -29.5% -4.2% -18.2% Value ($000s) 45,395 39,305 34,421 28,264 24,271 39,075 36,840 25,938 30,459 35,974 38,444 27,171 % Change Last Year -33.6% -33.4% -71.3% -63.9% -46.1% -31.0% -48.6% -60.3% -30.3% -44.9% 4.3% -4.2% Corp. Units % Change Last Year -54.1% -48.0% -62.0% 20.0% -77.8% -57.1% -51.4% 0.0% 367.7% -55.6% -75.3% -31.9% Value ($000s) 4,967 6,097 5,419 9,097 1,169 4,547 7,008 7,311 16,965 5,910 4,393 3,051 % Change Last Year -53.8% -16.1% -60.2% -75.4% -84.3% -68.6% -67.2% -11.4% 99.4% -41.5% -68.8% -52.0% Sources: Livingston Parish -- Livingston Parish Permit Office, Town of Albany, City of Denham Springs, Town of Livingston, Town of Walker St. Helena Parish -- Louisiana Department of Economic Development (estimates with imputation) St. Tammany Parish -- Town of Abita Springs, City of Covington, Village of Folsom, Town of Madisonville, City of Mandeville, Town of Pearl River, City of Slidell Tangipahoa Parish -- Tangipahoa Parish Permit Office, City of Hammond, Town of Independence, City of Ponchatoula Washington Parish -- Washington Parish Permit Office, City of Bogalusa, Town of Franklinton Southeastern Louisiana University 5

6 REGIONAL Economic Impact of the 2008 Special Olympics Louisiana State Summer Games Southeastern Louisiana University Business Research Center & College of Business Herb Holloway, Dr. Abul Jamal, and William Joubert Introduction Special Olympics Louisiana (SOLA) requested that the Business Research Center conduct an economic impact analysis of the 2008 Special Olympics Louisiana State Summer Games held May 23-25, 2008 at Southeastern Louisiana University in Hammond, Louisiana. The analysis utilized the input-output method, which is based on the economic linkages between various sectors and industries. These linkages cause every dollar of expenditures to ripple through the local economy, being multiplied to various degrees, causing a larger economic effect than the original amount of the expenditure. These ripple or multiplier effects continue to contribute to the economic impact of the expenditure until the effects leave the study area or become too small to measure. Background and Provided Data No expenditure survey was conducted at the State Summer Games, so this analysis is based on information provided by Special Olympics Louisiana and on expenditure estimates calculated by the author after reviewing impact studies (which did include expenditure surveys) from other Special Olympics events in Texas, Oklahoma, and North Carolina. Staff from SOLA provided the following information: 1,013 athletes and coaches participated in the Games 610 volunteers assisted with the Games (150 from outside Tangipahoa Parish) 60 law enforcement officers from outside Tangipahoa Parish participated in the Torch Run and were part of the Games through Sunday morning Approximately 500 spectators (family and friends) attended the Games One coach is required for every 4 athletes, but additional (optional) coaches may attend $40,753 for lodging and $33,602 for meals was paid to Southeastern Louisiana University/ Aramark by Special Olympics Louisiana for the entire weekend for athletes and coaches ($37 per athlete and optional coach was paid by regional Special Olympics offices to SOLA to offset a portion of these expenses) Assumptions and Expenditure Estimates The food and lodging fees paid by SOLA were assumed to be the only expenditures by or for the athletes and coaches. Expenditures of the 500 spectators, the 60 law enforcement officers, and the 150 volunteers from outside Tangipahoa Parish for lodging, food, fuel, and other retail purchases were estimated by the author and compared to Special Olympics studies from other states to verify that they were appropriate and reasonable. Southeastern Louisiana University 6

7 REGIONAL Economic Impact of the 2008 Special Olympics Louisiana State Summer Games continued The known and estimated expenditures used for the economic impact analysis were as follows: Expenditure Item Amount Athlete/coaches lodging $40,753 Athlete/coaches food $33,602 Spectator and outside volunteer lodging (325 rooms x $90/night x 2 nights) $58,500 Spectator and outside volunteer food & drink (650 people x $25/day x 2 days) $32,500 Law enforcement officer lodging (30 rooms x $90/night x 2 nights) $5,400 Law enforcement officer food & drink (60 officers x $25/day x 1.67 days) $2,505 Groceries and snacks $7,100 Miscellaneous retail $30,000 Auto gas $6,000 Total Expenditures $216,360 Estimated Northshore Impacts Regional economic impacts were calculated using both IMPLAN modeling software and regional RIMS-II multipliers from the U.S. Department of Commerce. IMPLAN and RIMS-II use different methods to calculate location effects for the study area, with the result that RIMS-II multipliers are typically larger. Both impact estimates are provided below to allow comparison. IMPLAN RIMS-II Total Northshore Economic Impact $293,286 $318,900 Expenditures $ 216,360 $216,360 Earnings Impact $ 94,050 $ 98,640 Number of Jobs Supported (for 1 year) Conclusions The 2008 Special Olympics State Summer Games contributed a significant influx of tourism dollars into the Tangipahoa Parish and Northshore regional economies. No expenditure surveys were conducted, but expenditure estimates were made based on known participation data, prevailing lodging rates in Hammond, and expenditure data from Special Olympics events in other states. The total impact on the Northshore economy was estimated to be between $293,000 and $319,000, with earnings impacts of $94,000 - $99,000. The estimated number of annual jobs supported was approximately 4.3 to 4.5. Southeastern Louisiana University 7

8 LOCAL Livingston Parish Livingston Parish experienced a 0.8% gain in employment compared to the third quarter of The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in the third quarter of Estimated retail sales were off 0.9% from the second quarter, but rose 1.6% compared to the third quarter of 2007, in contrast to a decline for the region as a whole. The number of residential building permits declined 17.3% compared to the third quarter of Values cannot be compared due to a change in valuation procedures. EMPLOYMENT LIVINGSTON PARISH Labor Force 54,799 54,940 54,452 53,422 53,283 53,784 54,259 54,216 55,282 55,230 55,324 55,438 % Change vs Prior Year 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 1.8% 2.1% Total Employment 53,035 53,122 52,466 51,061 51,488 51,592 52,457 52,333 52,754 52,946 52,850 52,873 % Change vs Prior Year 1.5% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% -1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 4.4% 3.4% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.1% 4.5% 4.6% Change vs Prior Year -0.2% -0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Total Employment Labor Force 54,730 53,496 54,586 55,331 55,000 % Change vs Prior Year 1.4% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 52,500 Total Employment 52,874 51,380 52,515 52,890 50,000 % Change vs Prior Year 1.5% -0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 47,500 Unemployment Rate 3.4% 4.0% 3.8% 4.4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Change vs Prior Year -0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES LIVINGSTON PARISH RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $ $ $ $93.88 $96.16 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Change vs Prior Month -2.9% 12.4% 9.1% -25.8% 2.4% 16.0% -7.8% 8.1% 3.1% -5.2% 1.3% -2.8% % Change vs. Prior Year 6.2% 19.3% 8.1% 5.3% 3.4% -4.1% -1.0% -4.7% -2.0% 1.5% 2.5% 0.9% Quarterly Average Sales $ $ $ $ % Change vs. Prior Quarter 7.7% -12.7% 9.0% -0.9% % Change vs Prior Year 11.0% 1.0% -2.7% 1.6% Source: Livingston Parish School Board - Sales and Use Tax Division LIVINGSTON PARISH Total Units % Change vs Prior Year -19.6% -57.4% -53.5% -62.8% -62.4% -60.4% -39.4% -59.2% -24.8% -29.8% -15.9% -6.8% Total Value ($000s) 6,178 4,228 5,828 4,547 4,322 5,533 9,299 7,881 6,509 10,860 8,819 9,658 % Change vs Prior Year -25.8% -53.7% -56.7% -80.0% -65.7% -61.0% -35.0% -42.0% -31.1% 42.8% 57.3% 58.9% Unincorp. Units % Change vs Prior Year -16.3% -59.6% -50.4% -64.6% -62.3% -59.9% -42.9% -63.0% -31.3% -29.3% -16.4% 0.0% Uninc. Value ($000s) 6,072 3,369 5,828 3,822 4,136 5,533 8,041 6,220 5,423 10,234 8,455 9,351 % Change vs Prior Year -21.9% -61.4% -53.6% -82.9% -65.9% -59.8% -39.6% -53.0% -35.0% 42.5% 62.2% 100.1% Incorporated Units % Change vs Prior Year -80.0% 50.0% % 50.0% -66.7% % 42.9% 350.0% 83.3% -50.0% 0.0% -66.7% Inc. Value ($000s) ,258 1,661 1, % Change vs Prior Year -80.9% 118.1% % 96.1% -57.6% % 25.6% 368.0% -0.9% 47.5% -7.8% -78.2% Sources: La Dept. of Econ. Dev. (Research Services), Livingston Parish Permit Office, Town of Albany, City of Denham Springs, Town of Livingston, Town of Walker Note: Valuation estimation procedure dropped by Livingston Parish after June Unincorporated values from July 2008 forward are by U.S. Census Bureau via La Dept of Economic Development, and tend to be much higher per unit. Comparisons to values in prior periods may not be valid. Southeastern Louisiana University 8

9 St. Helena Parish The labor force in St. Helena Parish grew by 3.4% in the third quarter of 2008, while employment only rose 0.8%, compared to the same months of the previous year. This disparity in growth rates caused the unemployment rate to rise to 9.6%. Sales tax collections rose 8.7% compared to the third quarter of 2007, the largest %age increase among the five Northshore parishes. Actual residential building permit data is not available for St. Helena Parish. Third quarter estimates of the value of St. Helena Parish building permits provided by the Louisiana Department of Economic Development declined 55% compared to the prior year. EMPLOYMENT ST. HELENA PARISH Labor Force 4,201 4,196 4,241 4,166 4,084 4,150 4,174 4,155 4,323 4,340 4,359 4,402 % Change vs Prior Year -3.9% -4.1% -6.0% 1.3% -0.5% -6.9% -5.5% -5.8% -7.6% -8.5% -5.8% -5.1% Total Employment 3,960 3,967 3,918 3,813 3,845 3,853 3,917 3,908 3,939 3,954 3,946 3,948 % Change vs Prior Year 1.5% 2.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.1% -1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% Unemployment Rate 5.7% 5.5% 7.6% 8.5% 5.9% 7.2% 6.2% 5.9% 8.9% 8.9% 9.5% 10.3% Change vs Prior Year 0.3% -0.4% 0.7% 0.6% -0.6% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 2.6% 4.2% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Total Employment Labor Force 4,213 4,133 4,217 4,367 4,000 % Change vs Prior Year 1.7% 0.4% 0.8% 3.4% 3,900 Total Employment 3,948 3,837 3,921 3,949 3,800 % Change vs Prior Year 1.5% -0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 3,700 Unemployment Rate 6.3% 7.2% 7.0% 9.6% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Change vs Prior Year 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 2.3% Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES ST. HELENA PARISH Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $4.31 $5.08 $6.04 $4.98 $4.75 $6.47 $5.03 $5.50 $6.78 $6.75 $5.46 $6.05 % Change vs Prior Month -25.7% 17.8% 19.0% -17.6% -4.6% 36.3% -22.3% 9.4% 23.2% -0.4% -19.1% 10.8% % Change vs. Prior Year -4.1% 15.6% -4.6% 98.2% -8.4% 11.9% 3.2% 12.0% 40.8% 18.5% 2.8% 4.3% Quarterly Average Sales $5.14 $5.40 $5.77 $6.09 % Change vs. Prior Quarter -8.2% 5.0% 6.8% 5.5% % Change vs Prior Year 1.4% 20.2% 18.5% 8.7% Source: Sales tax collections from St. Helena Parish Sheriff's Office expanded using tax rate of.05 (5%) RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS ST. HELENA PARISH Total Units % Change vs Prior Year -60.0% -66.7% -71.4% 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% -50.0% -50.0% -50.0% -50.0% -66.7% -50.0% Total Value ($000s) % Change vs Prior Year -55.4% -69.1% -77.2% 53.8% 53.8% 0.0% -49.1% -49.2% -49.1% -49.1% -66.1% -49.1% Source: Louisiana Department of Economic Development (estimates with imputation) Southeastern Louisiana University 9

10 St. Tammany Parish Total employment in St. Tammany Parish in the third quarter of 2008 rose 2.4% compared to a year ago. The workforce grew by 3.0%, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.5%. Estimated retail sales fell 8.2% from the previous quarter and 9.4% compared to the third quarter of 2007, reflecting the impacts of the national recession. The value of residential building permits dropped 39% compared to the third quarter of 2007, also mirroring statewide and national housing trends. EMPLOYMENT ST. TAMMANY PARISH Labor Force 118, , , , , , , , , , , ,928 % Change vs Prior Year 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.7% 1.9% 0.9% 1.9% 1.8% 3.9% 3.2% Total Employment 115, , , , , , , , , , , ,661 % Change vs Prior Year 3.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% 1.2% 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% 1.7% 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.5% 2.6% 3.3% 2.6% 2.9% 3.8% 3.3% 3.8% 3.5% Change vs Prior Year -0.4% -0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% Total Employment 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT ,000 Labor Force 118, , , , ,000 % Change vs Prior Year 2.2% 1.2% 1.5% 3.0% Total Employment 115, , , , ,000 % Change vs Prior Year 2.4% 0.9% 1.4% 2.4% 105,000 Unemployment Rate 2.7% 3.2% 3.1% 3.5% 100,000 Change vs Prior Year -0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES ST TAMMANY PARISH Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Change vs Prior Month -9.7% 0.4% 34.4% -31.5% 3.8% 14.5% -7.3% -1.5% 11.5% -11.1% -6.1% 2.2% % Change vs. Prior Year -0.5% -9.8% 2.3% -5.2% 3.8% -7.1% -1.7% -5.8% -11.0% -4.0% -10.0% -13.9% Quarterly Average Sales $ $ $ $ % Change vs. Prior Quarter 5.5% -11.1% 5.3% -8.2% % Change vs Prior Year -2.5% -3.2% -6.5% -9.4% Source: Sales tax collections from St. Tammany Parish Sales and Use Tax Department expanded using an average tax rate of (4.825%) RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS ST. TAMMANY PARISH Total Units % Change vs Prior Year -48.5% -58.1% -52.9% -71.3% -50.0% -24.0% -41.5% -55.3% 32.9% -47.3% 6.8% 14.3% Total Value ($000s) 26,787 33,675 21,364 22,560 12,659 25,523 18,251 16,103 29,292 17,418 22,166 14,697 % Change vs Prior Year -46.9% -13.4% -46.1% -67.6% -55.4% -37.5% -67.2% -57.6% 7.0% -64.0% -10.0% -7.5% Unincorp. Units % Change vs Prior Year -50.8% -61.0% -55.8% -45.8% -40.0% -11.6% -30.5% -59.5% -36.8% -44.8% 37.2% 7.7% Uninc. Value ($000s) 23,991 29,425 17,906 17,703 11,886 22,729 13,646 12,483 15,125 13,057 19,532 12,299 % Change vs Prior Year -44.8% -17.6% -49.2% -61.9% -50.0% -28.5% -68.0% -62.1% -31.1% -68.7% 9.6% -3.0% Incorporated Units % Change vs Prior Year -38.6% -34.8% -30.8% -21.7% -80.6% -61.2% -58.7% -36.7% 613.3% -56.4% -77.4% 33.3% Inc. Value ($000s) 2,795 4,250 3,458 4, ,794 4,605 3,620 14,167 4,361 2,634 2,399 % Change vs Prior Year -60.0% 35.1% -21.1% -86.1% -83.4% -69.1% -64.6% -28.5% 161.3% -35.4% -61.3% -25.3% Sources: Town of Abita Springs, City of Covington, Village of Folsom, Town of Madisonville, City of Mandeville, Tow n of Pearl River, City of Slidell Southeastern Louisiana University 10

11 Tangipahoa Parish Employment in Tangipahoa Parish continued to grow during the third quarter of 2008, increasing by approximately 300 jobs (0.6%) over the second quarter and approximately 1,300 jobs (2.7%) over the same period in Employment failed to keep pace with the growth in the labor force, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate. EMPLOYMENT TANGIPAHOA PARISH Labor Force 52,064 52,507 52,405 52,006 51,875 52,660 52,675 52,669 53,851 53,700 54,510 54,132 % Change vs Prior Year 1.7% 2.6% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8% 3.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.5% 3.1% 4.8% 4.1% Total Employment 50,229 50,572 50,151 49,365 49,938 50,249 50,725 50,600 50,946 50,954 51,503 50,737 % Change vs Prior Year 2.3% 3.1% 2.8% 2.4% 2.7% 2.3% 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 2.6% 3.5% 1.8% Unemployment Rate 3.5% 3.7% 4.3% 5.1% 3.7% 4.6% 3.7% 3.9% 5.4% 5.1% 5.5% 6.3% Change vs Prior Year -0.6% -0.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.9% 0.1% -0.1% 0.3% 0.4% 1.2% 2.2% Estimated retail sales were down slightly (0.7%) compared to the previous year. The value of building permits fell 32 % compared to the third quarter of 2007, the seventh consecutive quarter with year-to-year declines. ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Labor Force 52,325 52,180 53,065 54,114 52,500 % Change vs Prior Year 2.4% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 50,000 Total Employment 50,317 49,851 50,757 51,065 47,500 % Change vs Prior Year 2.7% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7% Unemployment Rate 3.8% 4.5% 4.3% 5.6% 45,000 Change vs Prior Year -0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.3% Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program Total Employment Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec TANGIPAHOA PARISH Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ % Change vs Prior Month -1.1% -3.8% 17.1% -18.7% 9.2% 12.1% -9.1% 0.3% 15.2% -13.6% -3.8% 1.3% % Change vs. Prior Year -2.0% 4.1% -2.2% -0.3% 12.1% 1.9% 2.7% -6.9% 8.7% 4.2% -4.1% -2.0% Quarterly Average Sales $ $ $ $ % Change vs. Prior Quarter 2.7% -1.7% 5.9% -7.2% % Change vs Prior Year -0.3% 4.3% 1.4% -0.7% Source: Sales tax collections from the Tangipahoa Parish School Board - Sales and Use Tax Division expanded using a tax rate of.02 (2%) RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS TANGIPAHOA PARISH Total Units % Change vs Prior Year -28.9% -51.6% -83.1% 20.0% -26.4% -30.5% -2.3% -58.8% 1.3% 4.8% -32.1% -42.3% Total Value ($000s) 16,082 6,296 9,987 8,890 6,640 10,588 14,722 7,108 10,088 11,018 10,915 4,434 % Change vs Prior Year -3.1% -50.6% -83.2% -12.8% -31.0% -13.5% -22.4% -58.3% -10.7% -10.3% -35.3% -54.0% Unincorp. Units % Change vs Prior Year -18.8% -48.6% -85.1% -29.1% -21.9% -25.9% 12.1% -68.8% -22.5% 26.6% 1.3% -29.4% Uninc. Value ($000s) 14,016 5,368 8,281 5,554 6,430 9,371 13,832 5,248 8,465 10,444 9,550 4,164 % Change vs Prior Year 1.8% -44.7% -84.2% -35.7% -21.5% -9.8% 18.5% -65.2% -10.3% 6.6% -4.4% -48.2% Incorporated Units % Change vs Prior Year -65.6% -63.2% -70.2% 290.0% -62.5% -50.0% -66.7% 150.0% 188.9% -68.4% -78.6% -75.0% Inc. Value ($000s) 2, ,706 3, , ,860 1, , % Change vs Prior Year -26.7% -69.4% -76.4% 113.3% -85.3% -33.9% -87.8% -7.0% -12.7% -77.0% -80.2% -83.1% Sources: Tangipahoa Parish Permit Office, City of Hammond, Tow n of Independence, and City of Ponchatoula Southeastern Louisiana University 11

12 Washington Parish Employment in Washington Parish in the third quarter of 2008 rose 2.0% compared to the third quarter of 2007, a slightly lower rate of growth than for the region. The unemployment rate rose to 6.5%. Estimated retail sales were down 12.9% from the previous quarter and 39.3% lower than the third quarter of 2007, which was artificially inflated by a one-time audit finding. The value of building permits fell 65.6% compared to the third quarter of 2007, the largest decline among the five Northshore parishes. EMPLOYMENT WASHINGTON PARISH Labor Force 15,607 15,754 15,752 15,645 15,455 15,465 15,727 15,739 16,070 15,973 16,172 15,960 % Change vs Prior Year 0.7% 1.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% -1.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.7% 3.2% 4.8% 1.4% Total Employment 14,877 14,999 14,939 14,696 14,728 14,595 15,016 14,970 14,991 14,953 15,056 14,950 % Change vs Prior Year 1.0% 1.5% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% -2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.6% 2.9% 3.1% 0.1% Unemployment Rate 4.7% 4.8% 5.2% 6.1% 4.7% 5.6% 4.5% 4.9% 6.7% 6.4% 6.9% 6.3% Change vs Prior Year -0.3% -0.3% 0.5% 0.5% -0.2% 0.8% -0.2% -0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 1.5% 1.1% 4QT-07 1QT-08 2QT-08 3QT-08 Total Employment 15,500 Labor Force 15,704 15,522 15,845 16,035 % Change vs Prior Year 1.4% -0.1% 1.7% 3.1% 15,000 Total Employment 14,938 14,673 14,992 14,986 14,500 % Change vs Prior Year 1.4% -0.5% 1.8% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 4.9% 5.5% 5.4% 6.5% 14,000 Change vs Prior Year 0.0% 0.3% -0.1% 1.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Labor Market Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program ESTIMATED RETAIL SALES WASHINGTON PARISH Total Est. Retail Sales (Mil.) $29.96 $34.36 $52.97 $25.68 $38.40 $39.30 $34.81 $35.03 $40.64 $35.31 $27.92 $32.95 % Change vs Prior Month -16.4% 14.7% 54.2% -51.5% 49.5% 2.4% -11.4% 0.6% 16.0% -13.1% -20.9% 18.0% % Change vs. Prior Year -3.2% 8.9% 32.1% -10.3% 21.7% -5.3% 14.9% -8.2% 19.1% -60.4% -16.5% -8.1% Quarterly Average Sales $39.10 $34.46 $36.82 $32.06 % Change vs. Prior Quarter -26.0% -11.9% 6.9% -12.9% % Change vs Prior Year 14.3% 1.7% 7.7% -39.3% Source: Washington Parish Sheriff's Office - Sales and Use Tax Department RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PERMITS WASHINGTON PARISH Total Units % Change vs Prior Year -76.0% -80.5% -86.2% -18.2% -8.3% -14.3% -71.8% -64.4% -73.7% -59.0% -83.8% -75.0% Total Value ($000s) 1, ,412 1,115 1,569 1,603 1,322 1,902 1,281 2, ,305 % Change vs Prior Year -67.0% -79.8% -87.7% 26.9% -7.6% -58.4% -63.7% -56.8% -64.4% -64.5% -76.7% -54.5% Unincorp. Units % Change vs Prior Year -71.4% -80.0% -87.2% 0.0% 22.2% 0.0% -78.9% -63.2% -75.7% -66.7% -86.5% -75.9% Uninc. Value ($000s) 1, , ,569 1,067 1,067 1,732 1,192 1, ,230 % Change vs Prior Year -62.7% -77.8% -88.4% 37.8% 105.6% 57.3% -70.1% -51.4% -65.7% -67.7% -77.5% -54.8% Incorporated Units % Change vs Prior Year % -83.3% -62.5% -66.7% % -33.3% 200.0% -71.4% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% -66.7% Inc. Value ($000s) % Change vs Prior Year % -91.4% -76.7% -10.3% % -83.1% 218.8% -79.7% -31.0% -20.1% 0.0% -49.0% Sources: Washington Parish Permit Office, City of Bogalusa, Town of Franklinton Southeastern Louisiana University 12

13 SOUTHEASTERN Staff Highlight David Wyld Robert Maurin Professor of Management In the brave, new and sometimes unconventional worlds of Web 2.0 and electronic initiatives, one of the leading researchers and reporters on trends in the fields is David C. Wyld of Southeastern s College of Business. Currently Maurin Professor of Management, Wyld has gained an international reputation as a leading academic expert on emerging applications of technology in both the public and private sectors. Web 2.0, blogging by government officials and university presidents, reverse auctions, virtual worlds, and the extensive possibilities of radio-frequency identification (RFID) are just some of the technological topics he has tackled in articles in academic and trade publications. A founding editor of the Journal of Strategic e-commerce, Wyld is director of the university s Strategic e-commerce/e-government Initiative in the College of Business. "We are proud to have Dr. Wyld on our faculty, said Randy Settoon, dean of the college. He has become an internationally known expert in the area of information technology and his research has brought national publicity to Southeastern. His report for the IBM Center for the Business of Government, "RFID: The Right Frequency for Government," has become the most downloaded report of the more than 150 published by IBM since The report one of four he has authored for IBM -- has been downloaded more than 50,000 times in less than a year. In addition to the IBM study, Wyld has written extensively about opportunities and issues related to RFID, which is being touted as the successor to bar code technology and is expected to revolutionize supply chain management. Predicting that the use of RFID will become common within a decade, Wyld and several faculty colleagues have examined applications and challenges in areas such as the pharmaceutical supply chain, animal identification, the postal system and small parcel markets, and some unexpected fields such as shoplifting, industrial espionage, sports, the wine industry, and tracking Mad Cow disease. In the area of Web 2.0 the term used to describe the second generation Internet, where interactivity among users is the key Wyld s report assessed blogging in corporate America, with a first of its kind survey of top executives who blog, and the potential benefits and challenges associated with blogging. There is a sea change occurring wherein the Web has become a truly participatory media, Wyld said. The rise of what has been alternately referred to as consumer- or user-generated media or content has been hailed as being truly revolutionary in nature. Named a Rising Star in Government Information Technology by Federal Computer Week in 2006, Wyld has also received Southeastern s President s Award for Excellence in Research. He has authored more than 130 articles in refereed journals and serves as a consultant to major corporations and small businesses on a wide range of issues. (Text and photograph courtesy of Southeastern s Public Information Office.) Southeastern Louisiana University 13

14 SOUTHEASTERN The College of Business recognized five students for their research into special business-related topics, from left, Yan Tung Pakki Chan, Christopher J. Manning, Kelly Bankston, Anthony Rutledge and Jonathan Publiese. PROFIT and ASSET Students Present Work A reception recognizing students in the Preferred Research Option for Intensive Training (PROFIT) in Business and Assisted Search Seeking Executive Training (ASSET) programs was hosted in December by the College of Business. Five students, who had been nominated for these prestigious programs by their faculty mentors, presented their research to an audience of faculty, family, and friends. Three students presented through the PROFIT program, which recognizes outstanding research and presentations at the undergraduate level, and two through ASSET, which recognizes excellence in research and presentation at the graduate level. Yan Tung Chan ("Pakki"), a graduating senior Marketing major from Hong Kong, presented an electronic report which analyzed Apple Corporation. She analyzed the strengths and weaknesses of the company and played two commercials to demonstrate the company's successful advertising campaigns against Microsoft. Ms. Chan was introduced by her faculty mentor, Dr. David Wyld, Professor of Management. Christopher J. Manning, a senior General Business major from Baton Rouge with a concentration in international business, presented a talk on cultural considerations of doing business in Latin America. He emphasized that U.S. citizens should be familiar with proper Latin American etiquette and using eye contact. His faculty mentor was Dr. Aristides Baraya of the General Business Department. Kelly Bankston, a graduating senior in General Business from Amite, presented a report on the history and future of the oil industry. Some of her surprising findings included that the United States gets most of its oil from Canada and only 15 percent from the Middle East. Also, the United States has the 12th largest oil reserves in the world. Her faculty mentor was economist Dr. Sang H. Lee of the General Business Department. Graduate students Jonathan R. Pugliese of Covington and Anthony M. Rutledge of Franklinton presented a video and photos from their participation in the College of Business Costa Rica Study Abroad Program. The mentor for this team was Dr. Michael Budden, Professor of Marketing, and former dean of the College of Business. Dr. Budden informed the audience that he uses the video to show prospective students interested in the Costa Rica trip, for which students can earn six credit hours. At the end of each presentation, the undergraduate students were given PROFIT Program plaques and the graduate students were given ASSET Program plaques engraved with their names in recognition of their achievements. A brief reception was held at the end of the presentations. (Text and photograph courtesy of Southeastern s Public Information Office.) Southeastern Louisiana University 14

15 SOUTHEASTERN Southeast Louisiana Business Center Activities Southeastern s Southeast Louisiana Business Center (SLBC) serves to facilitate economic development in the Northshore region. The SLBC is home to Southeastern s Department of Economic and Business Development, Office of Regional Planning (ORP), Business Research Center (BRC), and the Louisiana Small Business Development Center (SBDC) at Southeastern Louisiana University. The Center s mission is to foster economic development by providing a regional one-stop-shop for economic development efforts in the Northshore region, and develop partnerships that directly or indirectly contribute to economic renewal and diversification as described in Louisiana s Vision 2020 plan. SLBC Services Regional economic development consulting and assistance Business consulting Mapping and GIS services Product commercialization assistance Economic and demographic research and economic impact studies Technology transfer Business incentives assistance Site location/relocation analysis Meeting and training facilities Business incubator and transitional space Regional and community planning Workforce training/job placement Entrepreneurial training SLBC activities and accomplishments from October 2004 through December 2008 include: 5,916 meetings 4,557 walk-in visitors 20,246 telephone calls 11,145 hours of consulting work by SBDC consultants $117 million of capital infusion through SBDC clients 604 jobs created and 320 jobs retained through SBDC clients Approximately 25 commerce, community, and economic impact studies completed by the BRC and ORP For more information on the Southeast Louisiana Business Center and any of its services, please visit or contact us at (985) or sbdc@selu.edu. Southeastern Louisiana University 15

16 Business Research Center 1514 Martens Drive Hammond, LA Non-Profit Org. U.S. Postage PAID Bulk Rate Permit No. 193 Hammond LA Our Special Thanks This edition of the would not exist without valuable contributions from: Southeastern Louisiana University: Dr. A.M.M. Jamal, Rene Abadie St. Tammany Parish Sales and Use Tax Department Tangipahoa Parish Permit Office and School Board Sales and Use Tax Department Livingston Parish Building Permit Office and School Board Sales and Use Tax Division Washington Parish Building and Planning Department and Sheriff s Office Sales and Use Tax Department MEMBER St. Helena Parish Sheriff s Office Building permit offices of the following municipalities: This publication is jointly produced by the following Southeastern Louisiana University departments: Business Research Center Office of Economic & Business Development Southeast Louisiana Business Center College of Business Town of Abita Springs Village of Albany City of Bogalusa City of Covington City of Denham Springs Village of Folsom Town of Franklinton City of Hammond Town of Independence Town of Livingston Town of Madisonville City of Mandeville Town of Pearl River City of Ponchatoula City of Slidell Town of Walker