Izvještaj sa međunarodnog finansijskog tržišta od 20. jul do 24. jul 2015.
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1 Sektor za finansijske i bankarske operacije -Odjeljenje za upravljanje međunarodnim rezervama- Nedeljni izvještaj sa međunarodnog finansijskog tržišta (20. jul jul 2015.) Podgorica, 31. jul godine 1
2 FX VIJESTI EUR/USD Izvještaj sa međunarodnog finansijskog tržišta od 20. jul do 24. jul poslednjeg sastanka Banke Engleske. Naime, ovaj zapisnik je pokazao da određen broj članova borda ove centralne banke brine da se rizik da će inflacija da poraste iznad 2% povećao. Međutim, negativni podaci i to o padu maloprodaje u Velikoj Britaniji u junu, su imali jači uticaj na kretanje kursa EUR/GBP. EUR/JPY Tokom prvog dana ove izvještajne sedmice kurs EUR/USD nije ostvario veću promjenu. Međutim, u utorak ovaj kurs je ostvario oštar rast. Već narednog dana kurs EUR/USD je oslabio i to kako su objavljeni bolji od očekivanih podaci o prodaji nekretnina u SAD-u. U ovom periodu je i grčki parlament usvojio drugi paket reformi koje je ova zemlja morala da usvoji kako bi dobila finansijsku pomoć od međunarodnih kreditora. Ovaj put se glasalo o pravosudnim reformama i reformama bankarskog sistema, što je podržalo 230 predstavnika u parlamentu, dok su protiv bila 63. Ova odluka grčkog parlamenta je uticala da kurs EUR/USD poraste u četvrtak. Tokom poslednjeg dana kurs EUR/USD se blago povukao sa prethodnog nivoa, i to kako je objavljeno da je u SAD-u proizvodnja porasla, što ide u prilog očekivanjima da će Fed da poveća kamatnu stopu tokom ove godine. Sa druge strane na pad eura je uticalo objavljivanje podatka da je proizvodnja neočekivano oslabila u Njemačkoj. Kurs EUR/JPY je tokom ove sedmice porastao. Zapisnik sa poslednjeg sastanka Banke Japana je pokazao da su pojedini članovi borda upozorili da se efekat programa monetarnih stimulansa smanjuje. MMF je upozorio Japan da ne smije pretjerano da se oslanja na slabljenje valute u cilju jačanja ekonomije. Ovo upozorenje je negativno uticalo na jen, pa je on oslabio I u odnosu na dolar I euro. EUR/GBP Kurs EUR/GBP je prvog dana ove izvještajne sedmice bio stabilan. U ostatku izvještajne nedelje kurs EUR/GBP je uglavnom imao trend rasta, koji je donekle bio ograničen objavljivanjem zapisnika sa 2
3 Tabela br. 1 Ukršteni kursevi najznačajnijih valuta * ** % Promjena EUR/USD EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/AUD EUR/CHF USD/JPY GBP/USD Tabela br. 2 - Pregled referentnih kamatnih stopa vodećih centralnih banaka Centralna banka Referentna kamatna stopa Visina referentne kamatne stope Naredno zasijedanje European Central ECB main 0.05% Bank refinancing rate Federal Reserves Federal Funds 0.25% Target Rate Bank of Japan Overnight Call 0-0.1% Rate Bank of England Official Bank Rate 0.5% Swiss National Libor Target Rate -0.75% Bank Bank of Canada Target Overnight 0.50% Rate Reserve Bank of Australia Cash Rate Target 2.00% Tabela br. 3 Eonia i Euribor * ** % Promjena Eonia Euribor 1W Euribor 1M Euribor 3M Euribor 6M Euribor 12M
4 EVROPSKO TRŽIŠTE DRŽAVNIH OBVEZNICA Kretanje prinosa na njemačke 10-godišnje državne obveznice AMERIČKO TRŽIŠTE DRŽAVNIH OBVEZNICA Kretanje cijena američkih 10-godišnjih državnih obveznica Tokom ove izvještajne sedmice prinosi na njemačke državne obveznice su imali trend pada. Do značajnijeg skoka u rastu prinosa je došlo jedino u utorak kada se javila neizvjesnost da se dogovor grčke i međunarodnih kreditora neće ispuniti. U ostatku nedelje su prinosi na njemačke obveznice slabili kako je grčka u parlamentu usvojila drugu paket neophodnih reformi. Prinosi na njemačke obveznice su slabili i kako su se javile spekulacije da će pad cijene nafte i drugih energenata uticati na pad inflacije. Smanjeni pritisak na potrošačke cijene i nedostatak rast proizvodnje u euro zoni je uticao da se poveća tražnja za sigurnim sredstvima. Prvog dana ove izvještajne sedmice prinosi na američke obveznice nisu bilježili veću promjenu. U utorak je došlo do blagog rasta prinosa na američke obveznice. Međutim u ostatku izvještajne sedmice prinosi na ove obveznice su slabili kako su se inflatorna očekivanja smanjila zbog pada cijene energenata. 4
5 ZLATO NAFTA Cijena zlata je na otvaranju ove izvještajne sedmice pala zbog spekulacija da bi Fed do kraja ove godine mogao da poveća kamatnu stopu. Narednog dana cijena zlata je blago porasla. Od sredine sedmice cijena zlata je bilježila pad sve do petka. Rast dolara je uticao da u ovom periodu cijena zlata oslabi. Tokom poslednjeg dana cijena zlata je porasla. Tokom prva dva dana ove izvještajne sedmice cijena nafte nije bilježila veću promjenu. Sredinom sedmice cijena ovog energenta je oslabila, i takav trend je zadržala sve do kraja izvještajne sedmice. Do pada cijene nafte je došlo kako je objavljeno da su zalihe ovog enregenta porasla u SAD-u za 2.47 miliona barela tokom prethodne sedmice, kao i zbog usporavanja fabričke aktivnosti u Kini. Izvori podataka: Reuters Bloomberg 5
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