Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro

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1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar 2011 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br Podgorica Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Mr Radoje Žugić, guverner Mr Milojica Dakić, viceguverner Dr Velibor Milošević, viceguverner Asim Telaćević Dr Milivoje Radović Dr Milorad Jovović Dr Srđa Božović PRIPREMA: Dr Nikola Fabris, glavni ekonomista i Direkcija za monetarnu politiku i fiskalna istraživanja Direkcija za platni bilans i realni sektor GRAFIČKO UREĐIVANJE: Odjeljenje za publikacije Podaci objavljeni u ovom Biltenu su preliminarni i moguće su korekcije nakon dobijanja konačnih podataka. Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Radoje Žugić, MSc, Governor Milojica Dakić, MSc, Vice-Governor Velibor Milošević, PhD, Vice-Governor Asim Telaćević Milivoje Radović, PhD Milorad Jovović, PhD Srđa Božović, PhD PREPARED BY: TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Nikola Fabris, PhD, Chief Economist Directorate for Monetary Policy and Fiscal Research Directorate for Balance of Payments and Real Sector Translation Services Division Publications Division Data published in this Bulletin are preliminary and subject to revision as final data become available. Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKA KRETANJA 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 32 I Monetarna statistika 32 II Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 47 III Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 58 IV Platni promet 63 V Realni sektor 69 VI Fiskalni sektor 74 VII Međunarodne komparacije 78 VIII Metodologija 82 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 32 I Monetary Statistics 32 II Money Market and Capital Market 47 III International Economic Relations 58 IV Payment operations 63 V Real Sector Developments 69 VI Fiscal Developments 74 VII International Comparison 78 VIII Methodology 83 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Inflacija je u porastu. U porastu je obim industrijske proizvodnje, šumarstvo, kao i broj turista koji je posjetio Crnu Goru, a pad je registrovan u obavljanju saobraćajne djelatnosti. U porastu su depoziti, aktiva i likvidna sredstva banaka, dok je pad registrovan kod odobrenh kredita i kapitala banaka. Nastavljena je tendencija pada berzanskih indeksa. Strane direktne investicije su i dalje visoke, ali su niže u odnosu na prošlogodišnji nivo. Kretanje cijena Potrošačke cijene su, prema podacima Monstata, u avgustu godine, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježile rast od 0,7%. Najveći rast je zabilježen u kategoriji stanovanje od 4% zbog povećanja cijena snabdijevanja vodom za 45,1%. Rast je zabilježen u kategorijama zdravstvo (0,9%) zbog porasta cijena farmaceutskih proizvoda od 1,2%, hrana i bezalkoholna pića (0,4%), najviše zbog povećanja cijena mesa za 0,9% i povrća za 4,9%. Rast od 0,3% zabilježen je u kategorijama alkoholna pića i duvan, pokućstvo i oprema za kuću i kultura i rekreacija. Neznatan rast ostvaren je i u kategorijama prevoz i ostala dobra i usluge od 0,2% odnosno 0,1%. Pad je zabilježen u kategorijama odjeća i obuća (0,8%) i obrazovanje (0,2%). Cijene kategorija komunikacije i restorani i hoteli se nijesu mijenjale u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Godišnja stopa inflacije, mjerena indeksom potrošačkih cijena, iznosila je 3,6%, dok je prosječna stopa (prvih osam mjeseci ove godine u odnosu na isti period prethodne) iznosila 3%, koliko je iznosila i stopa inflacije u avgustu u odnosu na decembar godine. Grafik br. 1 Potrošačke cijene Izvor: Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

9 Macroeconomic environment Inflation shows an upward trend. Industrial output, forestry and the number of tourists visiting Montenegro were on the increase, while the decline was registered in transport activity. Deposits, banks' assets and liquid assets showed upward trend, while the granted loans and banks capital showed decrease. Stock exchange indices continued to decline. FDIs are still high, yet lower as per the previous year. Prices According to Monstat, consumer prices recorded a monthly increase by 0.7% in August The highest increase was recorded under dwelling (4%), due to higher prices of water supply by 45.1%. The increase was recorded in prices under health services (0.9%) due to higher prices of pharmacy products (1.2%), food and non-alcoholic beverages" (0.4%), mostly as the result of higher prices of meat (0.9%) and vegetables (4.9%). Prices under alcoholic beverages and tobacco, household furnishings and equipment and culture and entertainment increased by 0.3% each. The slight increase was recorded in the categories under transport and other goods and services by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. The decline was recorded in prices under clothes and footwear and education by 0.8% and 0.2%. Prices of categories under communication and restaurants and hotels remained unchanged in relation to the previous month. Annual CPI inflation in August 2011 amounted to 3.6%, while average rate in the first eight months of the current year (in comparison with the same eight-month period of 2010) amounted to 3%, as well as the inflation rate in August 2011 in relation to December Graph 1 - Consumer prices Source: Monstat 9 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda su u avgustu godine ostale nepromijenjene u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Rast cijena od 0,6% zabilježen je u sektoru vađenja ruda i kamena, dok je u sektoru prerađivačke industrije zabilježen pad od 0,1%. U sektoru proizvodnja električne energije, gasa i vode, cijene su ostale nepromijenjene u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Na godišnjem nivou, cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda zabilježile su rast od 3,2%, najviše zbog rasta cijena u sektoru prerađivačke industrije od 5,5% i vađenja ruda i kamena od 0,4%. Cijene proizvodnje električne energije, gasa i vode na godišnjem nivou niže su za 2,6%. Grafik br. 2 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja je, u avgustu godine, zabilježila rast od 1% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne godine od 18%. Dva sektora su zabilježila mjesečni rast proizvodnje i to sektor vađenja rude i kamena od 19,2% i sektor prerađivačke industrije od 5,6%, dok je sektor proizvodnja električne energije, gasa i vode ostvario pad od 14,9%. U prvih osam mjeseci godine, u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine, zabilježen je pad ukupne industrijske proizvodnje od 6,6%, kao posljedica pada proizvodnje u sektoru proizvodnje električne energije, gasa i vode od 28,3%. U istom periodu ostvaren je rast u prerađivačkoj industriji od 12,1% i sektoru vađenja ruda i kamena od 2,7%. U prerađivačkoj industriji, u uporednom periodu, četiri podsektora bilježe pad proizvodnje i to: prehrambeni proizvodi, pića i duvan (3,5%), proizvodnja papira; izdavanje i štampanje (4,1%), proizvodnja proizvoda od gume i plastičnih masa (0,5%) i prerađivačka industrija, ostala (49,8%). Rast proizvodnje je zabilježen u sedam podsektora. Najveći rast je ostvaren u podsektoru proizvodnja drveta i proizvodi od drveta od 46,7%, dok je najmanji rast ostvaren u podsektoru proizvodnja tekstila i tekstilnih proizvoda od 2,1%. U podsektoru proizvodnja kože i predmeta od kože u prvih osam mjeseci godine nije evidentirana proizvodnja. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

11 Producers` prices of manufactured products In August 2011, producers` prices of manufactured products remained unchanged if compared to July Prices growth was recorded in mining and quarrying (0.6%), while prices in manufacturing industry recorded decline by 0.1%. The producers prices of electricity, gas and water supply remained at the previous month level. At the annual level, the producers` prices of manufactured products increased by 3.2%, mainly due to the price increase in manufacturing industry and mining and quarrying by 5.5% and 0.4%, respectively. Producer prices of electricity, gas and water supply showed the annual declines by 2.6%. Graph 2 Producers` prices of manufactured products Source: Monstat Industrial output In August 2011, industrial output rose by 1% in relation to the previous month, while in relation to August 2010 it increased by 18%. Two sectors recorded increase of production: mining and quarrying sector and manufacturing industry (19.2% and 5.6%, respectively) while electricity, gas and water supply sector recorded decline by 14.9%. In the first eight months of this year, in comparison with the same period of the previous year, total industrial production decreased by 6.6%, as a result of decline in the electricity, gas and water supply sector by 28.3%. In the same period, manufacturing industry recorded increase of 12.1% while this increase was 2.7% in the mining and quarrying sector. In the comparative period, four sub-sectors recorded production decline in the manufacturing industry: food products, beverages and tobacco (3.5%), production of paper, publishing and printing (4.1%), products of rubber and plastic masses (0.5%) and manufacturing industry, other (49.8%). Production growth was recorded in seven subsectors. The highest growth was recorded in the production of wood and products thereof by 46.7%, while the lowest growth was recorded in the production of textile and products thereof by 2.1%. In the first eight months of 2011, sub-sector production of leather and leather products did not record production. 11 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Grafik br. 3 Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Saobraćaj i šumarstvo U vazdušnom saobraćaju, u prvih osam mjeseci ove godine prevezeno je 7,3% više putnika nego u istom periodu prethodne godine, dok je u drumskom i željezničkom saobraćaju smanjen prevoz putnika za 10,1% i 32,7%, respektivno. U prvih osam mjeseci, u vazdušnom saobraćaju, prevezeno je manje roba za 49%, u željezničkom saobraćaju za 1,5% (mjereno tonskim kilometrima), a u drumskom saobraćaju za 34,6% (mjereno tonskim kilometrima). Ukupni promet u lukama je za prvih osam mjeseci iznosio 1.202,4 hiljade tona, i bio je veći za 0,9% u poređenju sa istim periodom prethodne godine, pri čemu je izvoz povećan za 9,1%, a uvoz za 9,2%. U šumarstvu je u avgustu proizvedeno 37,7 hiljade m³ šumskih sortimenata što je 18% više nego u prethodnom mjesecu, a 14,3% manje nego u istom mjesecu prethodne godine. U prvih osam mjeseci ove godine proizvedeno je 167,6 hiljada m³ šumskih sortimenata, što predstavlja rast od 5,7% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Turizam Prema evidenciji Monstata, Crnu Goru je u prvih osam mjeseci posjetilo 1.102,6 hiljada turista, što predstavlja rast od 7,3% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. U istom periodu ostvareno je 7.375,4 hiljade noćenja što je za 9,5% više nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Tržište rada 1 U julu godine je, prema evidenciji Monstata, bilo zaposleno 170,6 hiljada lica, što je za 1,4% više u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a 6,5% u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne godine. 1 Podaci o broju zaposlenih za avgust nisu bili raspoloživi u trenutku pisanja ovog izvještaja. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

13 Graph 3 Industrial output Source: Monstat Transportation and Forestry In the eight months of 2011, 7.3% more passengers were transported by the air transportation in comparison with the same period of the previous year, while road and railway transportation recorded decline of 10.1% and 32.7%, respectively. In the first eight months, air cargo transportation was 49% lower, railway cargo transportation 1.5% lower (measured in tone kilometres), and road cargo transportation declined by 34.6% (measured in tone kilometres). Total turnover in ports amounted to 1,202.4 thousand tonnes in the first eight months of 2011, thus being 0.9% higher than in the same period last year, whereby exports and imports rose by 9.1% and 9.2%, respectively. Some 37.7 thousand m 3 of wood products were produced in August, which is by 18% more than in the previous month, and 14.3% less than in the same month of the previous year. The period-on-period comparison shows an increase of 5.7% in the first eight months of 2011, with the total production amounting to thousand m 3 of wood products. Tourism According to Monstat, some 1,102.6 thousand tourists visited Montenegro in the first eight months of the current year, which is 7.3% more than in the corresponding period of Tourist overnights amounted to 7,375.4 thousand, which is a 9.5% increase as per the same period of Labour Market 1 Monstat records show that thousand people were employed in July 2011, which is a 1.4% monthly increase, and a 6.5% increase as per July Data on employment for August were not available at the time of the report compilation. 13 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Najveći broj lica zaposlen je u sljedećim djelatnostima: trgovini na veliko i malo (22,8%), državnoj upravi i socijalnom osiguranju (11,4%), hotelima i restoranima (9,9%), prerađivačkoj industriji (9,3%), saobraćaju, skladištenju i vezama (7,3%), obrazovanju (7%). Grafik br. 4 Struktura zaposlenih po sektorima, jul godine Izvor: Monstat Broj nezaposlenih lica je u avgustu godine, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, bio manji za 0,2%, a u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne godine za 5%. Bruto i neto plate su u avgustu godine, u odnosu na jul, zabilježile pad od 0,1% odnosno 0,2%. Realna zarada bez poreza i doprinosa u avgustu je, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, bila niža za 0,9%. Ukupna aktiva i pasiva banaka Bilansna suma banaka je na kraju avgusta ove godine iznosila 2.924,0 miliona eura, što je predstavljalo rast na mjesečnom (0,9%) i pad na godišnjem nivou (2,8%). U strukturi aktive banaka, najveće učešće ostvarili su krediti sa 68,7%, novčana sredstva i depoziti kod depozitnih institucija sa 24,7%, dok se ostatak od 6,6% odnosio na preostale stavke aktive banaka. U strukturi aktive banaka, najveći mjesečni rast zabilježen je kod stavke rezervisanja za gubitke na ostale stavke aktive (60,9%). U strukturi pasive, dominantno učešće su ostvarili depoziti sa 64,6%, potom pozajmice sa 19,9% i ukupan kapital sa 9,7%, dok se ostatak od 5,8% odnosio na preostale stavke pasive banaka. Na mjesečnom nivou, najveći rast učešća zabilježili su finansijski derivati (15,0%). Ukupan kapital banaka je, na kraju avgusta godine, 283,6 milion eura i niži je i na mjesečnom nivou (5,9%) i na godišnjem nivou (7,8%). Depoziti Ukupni depoziti banaka su na kraju avgusta iznosili 1.889,8 miliona eura. U odnosu na jul godine, ukupni depoziti su bili viši za 2,8%, dok su u odnosu na avgust godine bili viši za 1,2%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

15 Thus, most people are employed in wholesale and retail trade (22.8%), public administration and social insurance (11.4%), then hotels and restaurants (9.9%), manufacturing industry (9.3%), transport and warehousing and communications (7.3%) and education (7%). Graph 4 - Structure of employees by sectors, July 2011 Source: Monstat Monthly decrease in unemployment amounted to 0.2% in August 2011, as well as in comparison with August 2010 by 5%. In relation to July 2011, gross and net salaries decreased in August 2011 by 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Real wage in August, without taxes and contributions was 0.9% lower in relation to July. Total assets and liabilities of banks Total assets and liabilities of banks amounted to EUR 2,924.0 million at end-august 2011, recording the growth at the monthly level (0.9%), yet the annual decline (2.8%). In the structure of total assets, net loans accounted for the main share of 68.7%, followed by monetary assets and deposits with depository institutions with 24.7%, while other asset items accounted for the remaining 6.6%. The highest monthly increase was recorded with loss provisions to other asset items (60.9%). As for the banks` liabilities, deposits accounted for the main share of 64.6%, followed by borrowings with 19.9% and total banks capital with 9.7%, whereas the remaining 5.8% were other liabilities items. The highest monthly share growth was recorded by financial derivatives (15.0%). At end-august 2011, total capital amounted to EUR million, thus decreasing by 5.9% and 7.8% respectively at the monthly and annual level. Deposits Total banks deposits amounted to EUR million at-end August. In relation to July 2011, total banks' deposits were 2.8% higher, while in relation to August 2010 they were 1.2% higher. 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 U ročnoj strukturi ukupnih depozita, oročeni depoziti su činili 59,3%, dok su depoziti po viđenju činili 40,7% ukupnih depozita. U strukturi oročenih depozita, najveće učešće imali su depoziti ročnosti od tri mjeseca do jedne godine (32,3%) i depoziti ročnosti do tri mjeseca (13,2%). Tabela br. 1 - Ročna struktura depozita, kraj perioda, % VIII VII VIII Depoziti po viđenju 41,4 40,0 40,7 Oročeni depoziti 58,6 60,0 59,3 do 3 mjeseca 18,0 13,1 13,2 od 3 mjeseca do 1 godine 29,3 33,3 32,3 od 1 do 3 godine 9,9 10,4 10,6 preko 3 godine 1,5 3,2 3,2 Posmatrano po sektorima, u ukupnim depozitima dominirali su depoziti fizičkih lica sa 54,1% učešća. Tabela br. 2 - Sektorska struktura depozita, kraj perioda VIII VII VIII VIII VII u 000 EUR u % VIII Finansijske institucije ,8 5,3 4,8 Nefinansijske institucije ,8 29,6 31,0 Opšta vlada (Vlada, fondovi, opštine) ,5 5,6 5,5 Fizička lica ,5 54,6 54,1 Neprofitne organizacije ,3 1,2 1,2 Ostalo ,1 3,7 3,4 UKUPNO ,0 100,0 100,0 Depoziti stanovništva Depoziti stanovništva su, na kraju avgusta godine, iznosili 1,021,6 miliona eura i bili su za 1,7% viši nego u prethodnom mjesecu. U odnosu na avgust prethodne godine, depoziti stanovništva su ostvarili rast od 12,8%. U ročnoj strukturi depozita stanovništva, oročeni depoziti su činili 67,2%, dok su depoziti po viđenju iznosili 32,8%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

17 Maturity structure of total deposits shows that 59.3% of total deposits referred to time deposits, while demand deposits accounted for 40.7%. In the structure of time deposits, the highest share was recorded by deposits with maturity from 3 months to 1 year (32.3%), and deposits with maturity up to three months (13.2%). AUGUST 2010 JULY 2011 AUGUST 2011 Demand deposits Time deposits Up to 3 months From 3 months to 1 year From 1 to 3 years Over 3 years Table 1 - Structure of deposits, period-end, % Observed by sectors, households deposits still account for the main share of total deposits with 54.1%. AUGUST JULY AUGUST AUGUST JULY in EUR 000 in % AUGUST Financial institutions 164,804 96,622 90, Non-financial institutions 649, , , General Government (Government, funds, municipalities) 121, , , Natural persons 905,292 1,004,952 1,021, Non-profit organizations 23,800 22,593 24, Other 2,573 68,156 65, TOTAL 1,867,662 1,839,152 1,889, Table 2 - Deposits structure by sectors, period-end, % Household deposits Household deposits amounted to EUR 1,021.6 million at end-august 2011, thus recording the increase at monthly level by 1.7%. As per August 2010, they increased by 12.8%. Time deposits with the share of 67.2% dominated in the maturity structure of household deposits, while demand deposits accounted for 32.8%. 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Grafik br. 5 Depoziti stanovništva po ročnosti, u eura Krediti Ukupni krediti banaka su na kraju avgusta godine iznosili 2.008,5 miliona eura, što je za 1,3% niže nego u julu tekuće godine, odnosno za 12,0% niže nego u istom mjesecu prethodne godine. Koeficijent krediti/depoziti iznosio je 1,06 u avgustu tekuće godine. U odnosu na kraj prethodnog mjeseca je poboljšan (1,11), kao i u odnosu na kraj avgusta godine (1,22). Grafik br. 6 Ukupni krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Odnos kredita i depozita uvećanih za ukupno uzete pozajmice je iznosio 0,81, i poboljšan je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec (0,83), kao i u odnosu na avgust godine kada je ovaj odnos iznosio 0,89. Krediti odobreni privredi i stanovništvu dominantna su kategorija u strukturi ukupnih kredita banaka sa 93,2% učešća, dok se preostalih 6,8% odnosilo na finansijske institucije, organizacije u javnom vlasništvu, inostrane firme, Opštu vladu i neprofitne organizacije. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

19 Graph 5 Household deposits by maturity, EUR million Loans Total banking loans amounted to EUR 2,008.5 million at end-august 2011, which is a 1.3% monthly and a 12.0% year-on-year decline. The loans/deposits ratio amounted to 1.06 in August This ratio was improved in relation to the previous month (1.11), as well as in relation to end-august 2011 when it was Graph 6 Total loans and deposits, EUR thousand The loans/deposits-plus-borrowings ratio amounted to 0.81 at end-august this year, thus improving in relation to the previous month when it was 0.83 and August 2010 when it amounted to Loans extended to the corporate and household sectors accounted for the main share of 93.2%, while the remaining 6.8% were loans granted to financial institutions, public organisations, foreign companies, General Government, and non-profit organisations. 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Grafik br. 7 Ukupni krediti, depoziti i pozajmice banaka, u 000 eura Grafik br. 8 Krediti stanovništvu, privredi i ukupni krediti banaka, u 000 eura Likvidnost banaka Prosječna likvidna sredstva banaka su u avgustu godine iznosila 439,5 miliona eura i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec bila su viša za 35,0 miliona eura. U avgustu su koeficijenti likvidnost za bankarski sistem u cjelini, na dnevnom i dekadnom nivou bili iznad propisanih minimuma. Obavezna rezerva Ukupno izdvojena obavezna rezerva banaka kod CBCG iznosila je 161,1 miliona eura na kraju avgusta tekuće godine. Izdvojeni iznos je na mjesečnom nivou bio viši za 1,5%, dok je na godišnjem nivou izdvajanje banaka bilo niže za 1,2%. Od iznosa ukupno izdvojene obavezne rezerve, na računu obavezne rezerve u zemlji izdvojeno je 65,8%, u državnim zapisima 23,7%, a na računu Centralne banke u inostranstvu 10,5%. Deset banaka iskoristilo je mogućnost izdvajanja dijela obavezne rezerve u obliku državnih zapisa. Tako su ukupno izdvojena sredstva u obliku državnih zapisa iznosila 38,2 miliona eura na kraju avgusta godine. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

21 Graph 7 - Loans disbursed, banks deposits and borrowings, EUR thousand Graph 8 - Loans to households, corporate sector and total banks loans, in EUR thousand Banks Liquidity Average liquid assets of banks amounted to EUR million in August this year, being EUR 35.0 million higher than in the previous month. Liquidity ratios, both daily and tenday, were above the prescribed minimum for the entire banking system. Reserve requirement Total allocated reserve requirements of banks deposited with the Central Bank of Montenegro amounted to EUR million at end-august this year. The allocated amount recorded the month-on-month increase of 1.5%, while it recorded year-on-year decline of 1.2%. Of total reserve requirements, 65.8% was allocated to the reserve requirement account in the country, 23.7% were in T-bills, and the remaining 10.5% to the Central Bank accounts held abroad. Ten banks used the opportunity to allocate a part of their reserve requirements in T-bills in this month. Thus, total allocated assets in the form T-bills amounted to EUR 38.2 million at end-august Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 Efektivna stopa obavezne rezerve, mjerena odnosom izdvojene obavezne rezerve i ukupnih depozita, iznosila je 8,5% u avgustu i smanjena je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, kada je iznosila 8,6%, kao i u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine kada je iznosila 8,7%. Grafik br. 9 Izdvojena obavezna rezerva, u 000 eura Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije (MFI) Ukupna aktiva mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na kraju avgusta godine iznosila je 46,7 miliona eura i bila je niža za 2,5% u odnosu na jul tekuće godine, dok je u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine bila niža za 27,8%. Ukupni krediti MFI iznosili su 34,7 miliona eura, što predstavlja nastavak opadajućeg trenda. Na mjesečnom nivou, krediti MFI smanjeni su za 3,1%, dok u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine bilježe pad od 30,1%. Aktivne kamatne stope Aktivna prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa (APPNKS) je u avgustu godine iznosila 9,06% i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec niža je za 0,01 p.p, dok je aktivna prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa (APPEKS) iznosila 9,70% i na mjesečnom nivou je smanjena za 0,02 p.p. Grafik br. 10 Kretanje prosječnih ponderisanih nominalnih i efektivnih kamatnih stopa na nivou sistema Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

23 The effective reserve requirement rate, measured by the allocated reserve requirements/ total deposits ratio, amounted to 8.5% in August, being lower than in the previous month when it amounted to 8.6% and August 2010 when it was 8.7%. Graph 9 - Reserve requirement, EUR thousand Micro-credit financial institutions (MFIs) Total assets of MFIs amounted to EUR 46.7 million at end-august, thus being 2.5% lower than in the previous month and 27.8% lower than in the same month last year. Total MFI loans amounted to EUR 34.7 million, which represents the continuation of the downward trend. They declined by 3.1% in relation to the previous month, as well as by 30.1% in relation to August Lending Interest Rates In August 2011, the weighted average nominal lending interest rate (WALNIR) and the weighted average lending effective interest rate (WALEIR) respectively amounted to 9.06% and 9.70%, whereby both rates recorded respective monthly decline by 0.01 and 0.02 percentage points. Graph 10 - Weighted average nominal and effective interest rates at the system level 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 Na kredite odobrene fizičkim licima nominalna prosječna ponderisana kamatna stopa iznosila je 9,48%, dok je efektivna prosječna ponderisana kamatna stopa iznosila 10,18%. I efektivna i nominalna prosječna ponderisana kamatna stopa su ostale na istom mjesečnom novou. PPNKS na kredite odobrene pravnim licima iznosila je 8,74% i ostvarila je pad od 0,01 p.p. u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok je istovremeno PPEKS iznosila 9,33% i zabilježila je pad od 0,04 p.p na mjesečnom nivou. Grafik br. 11 Kretanje prosječnih ponderisanih efektivnih kamatnih stopa na kredite odobrene fizičkim i pravnim licima Pasivne kamatne stope Pasivna prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa (PPPEKS) iznosila je 3,09% u avgustu godine i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec niža je za 0,07 procentnih poena, dok u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne godine bilježi pad od 0,34 procentnih poena. PPEKS na depozite fizičkih lica iznosila je 3,52%, što je za 0,04 p.p. niže nego u prethodnom mjesecu. Istovremeno, PPEKS na depozite pravnih lica iznosila je 2,60%, što je za 0,07 p.p. niže u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Tabela br. 3 - PPEKS na depozite banaka po ročnosti, u % Ročnost VIII Depoziti po viđenju 0,45 Oročeni depoziti Do 3 mjeseca 4,51 Od 3 mjeseca do 1 godine 5,05 Od 1 do 3 godine 5,29 Od 3 do 5 godina 4,27 Preko 5 godina 3,24 Razlika između aktivnih i pasivnih kamatnih stopa iznosila je 6,61 p.p. u avgustu godine. Kamatna margina kod kredita odobrenih fizičkim licima iznosila je 6,66 p.p., dok je na kredite odobrene pravnim licima iznosila 6,73 p.p. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

25 WANIR on loans granted to natural persons amounted to 9.48%, while WAEIR amounted to 10.18%. Both effective and nominal interest rates remained at the same monthly level. The WANIR for legal persons amounted to 8.74% and declined on monthly level by 0.01 percentage points, while the WAEIR was 9.33% and it decreased by 0.04 percentage points. Graph 11 - Weighted average nominal and effective interest rates on loans granted to natural and legal persons Deposit interest rates The weighted average deposit effective interest rate (WADEIR) amounted to 3.09% in August 2011, recording the month-on-month decrease of 0.07 percentage points and the year-onyear decline of 0.34 percentage points. The WAEIR on deposits by natural persons amounted to 3.52%, which is 0.04 percentage points less than in the previous month. The WADEIR on deposits by legal persons amounted to 2.60%, which is a 0.07 percentage point month-on-month growth. Maturity AUGUST 2011 Demand deposits 0.45 Time deposits Up to 3 months 4.51 From 3 months to 1 year 5.05 From 1 to 3 years 5.29 From 3 to 5 years 4.27 Over 5 years 3.24 Table 3 WADEIR on banking deposits by maturity, % In August this year, the difference between the lending and deposit interest rates amounted to 6.61 percentage points. The interest rate margin for loans granted to natural persons and legal persons amounted to 6.66 and 6.73 percentage points, respectively. 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 Tržište kapitala Ukupno ostvaren promet na Montenegroberzi u avgustu iznosio je svega 2,2 miliona eura, što je za 65,9% manje nego u prethodnom mjesecu, a za 30,7% manje nego u istom mjesecu prethodne godine. Ukoliko se posmatra mjesečni promet, promet ostvaren u avgustu tekuće godine, najniži je od septembra godine. Prosječan promet u prvih osam mjeseci godine na Montenegroberzi iznosio je 4,4 miliona eura. U strukturi prometa, u avgustu godine, dominirale su akcije kompanija sa 74,7% učešća, zatim slijede akcije FZU sa 12,8% i obveznice stare devizne štednje sa 12,5%. Cjelokupan mjesečni promet ostvaren je kroz sekundarnu trgovinu. Na kraju avgusta vrijednost indeksa Monex 20 iznosila je ,49, a vrijednost indeksa Monex PIF 4.873,53. Indeks Monex 20 je, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zabilježio pad od 5,0%, dok je indeks Monex PIF zabilježio pad od 11,8%. Oba berzanska indeksa su zabilježila pad na godišnjem nivou: Monex 20 22,1% i Monex PIF 20,5%. U odnosu na njihove istorijski maksimalne vrijednosti dostignute u godini, indeksi su na kraju avgusta bili niži i to: index Monex 20 za 78,0%, i indeks Monex PIF za 90,4%, što svjedoči o i dalje prisutnoj dubokoj krizi na ovom tržištu. Grafik br. 12 Kretanje indeksa MONEX 20 i MONEX PIF Izvor: Montenegroberza Ukupna kapitalizacija na Montenegroberzi je, u avgustu godine iznosila 2.896,3 miliona eura i bila je za 2,5% niža nego u prethodnom mjesecu. Grafik br. 13 Koeficijent obrta sredstava Izvor: Montenegroberza Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

27 Capital market Total turnover at the Montenegro stock exchange amounted to mere EUR 2.2 million in August this year, which is 65.9% and 30.7% less than in the previous month and the same month last year, respectively. Observing the monthly turnover, the turnover reported in August 2011 was the lowest since September Average turnover at the Montenegro stock exchange in the first eight months of the current year amounted to EUR 4.4 million. The main share in the turnover structure was of company shares with 74.7%, followed by Joint investment funds` shares with 12.8% and frozen foreign currency deposit bonds with 12.5%. The whole monthly turnover was recorded through secondary trade. At end-august, the value of the Monex 20 index was and that of the Monex PIF was , both recording the respective decreases of 5.0% and 11.8%. Both indices recorded the year-on-year declines of the respective 22.1% and 20.5%. However, compared to their record values reached in 2007, the indices were much lower at end-august this year: the Monex 20 by 78.0% and the Monex PIF by 90.4%, which speaks in favour of a still deep crisis of this market. Graph 12 - MONEX 20 and MONEX PIF indices Source: Montenegro Stock Exchange Total capitalization at the Montenegro stock exchange amounted to EUR 2.896,3 million in August 2011 and it was 2.5% lower than in the previous month. Graph 13 - Turnover coefficient Source: Montenegro Stock Exchange 27 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

28 Koeficijent obrta sredstava na Montenegroberzi u avgustu godine iznosio je 0,000757, što predstavlja značajan pad u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, kada je iznosio 0, Domaći platni promet Vrijednost realizovanog platnog prometa u zemlji, u avgustu godine iznosila je 2.033,9 miliona eura. Realizovani platni promet ostvario je pad od 0,4% u odnosu na jul ove godine, a u odnosu na avgust prethodne godine ostvaren je rast od 7,4%. U strukturi ukupno realizovanog platnog prometa, većinsko učešće zabilježio je interni platni promet sa 60,1%. Posmatrano prema učešću realizovanih naloga, dominantno učešće od 66,9% ostvario je interni platni promet, sa 1.459,1 hiljade realizovanih naloga. Strane direktne investicije Prema preliminarnim podacima, neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija (priliv minus odliv), u periodu januar-avgust godine, iznosio je 241,8 miliona eura i za 38,5% je manji nego u istom periodu godine. Ukupan priliv stranih direktnih investicija iznosio je 313,4 miliona eura. Grafik br. 14 Ukupan priliv stranih direktnih investicija, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG U strukturi priliva stranih direktnih investicija vlasnička ulaganja su iznosila 234,1 milion eura, dok je priliv u formi interkompanijskog duga iznosio 66,6 miliona eura. U strukturi vlasničkih ulaganja, najveći priliv ostvaren je po osnovu investicija u preduzeća i banke 125 miliona eura, dok su ulaganja u nekretnine iznosila 109,1 miliona eura. Priliv novčanih sredstava po osnovu povlačenja sredstava rezidenata investiranih u inostranstvu iznosio je 12,8 miliona eura. Ukupan odliv stranih direktnih investicija u posmatranom periodu iznosio je 71,6 miliona eura, što je za 12,2% više nego u godini. U strukturi odliva 25,7 milion eura se odnosilo na ulaganja rezidenata u inostranstvu, dok je odliv po osnovu povlačenja sredstava investiranih u domaće banke i preduzeća iznosio 45,9 miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

29 The turnover coefficient at the Montenegro stock exchange amounted to in August this year, showing a significant monthly decrease ( in July). Domestic payment operations The value of realized domestic payment transactions in the country amounted to EUR 2,033.9 million in August 2011, being 0.4% lower than in the previous month, yet 7.4% higher in comparison to August Internal payment operations accounted for the main share of total payment transactions, 60.1%. Observed by the share of executed payment orders, the main share was of internal payment operations (66.9% or 1,459.1 thousand executed orders). Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) According to preliminary data, net FDI inflow (inflow minus outflow) amounted to EUR million in the period January - August 2011, being 38.5% lower compared to the same period of Total FDI inflow amounted to EUR million. Graph 14 Total FDI inflow, EUR thousand Source: CBM Of total FDI inflow, equity investments amounted to EUR million, while the inflow in the form of intercompany debt amounted to EUR 66.6 million. Investments in companies and banks and investments in real estates accounted for the respective EUR 125 million and EUR million of total equity investments. The inflow of financial assets arising from the withdrawal of residents capital abroad amounted to EUR 12.8 million. Total FDI outflow amounted to EUR 71.6 million, which is 12.2% higher than in In the outflow structure, EUR 25.7 million referred to residents investments abroad, while the outflow from withdrawal of non-residents investments amounted to EUR 45.9 million. 29 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

30 Grafik br. 15 Struktura ukupnog priliva stranih direktnih investicija u periodu januar-avgust godine Izvor: CBCG Budžet Crne Gore Tekući prihodi Budžeta Crne Gore i državnih fondova u avgustu godine, prema procjeni Ministarstva finansija, iznosili su 112,5 miliona eura ili 3,4% procijenjenog BDP-a 2. Tekući prihodi su bili viši od plana za navedeni mjesec za 0,6%, a u odnosu na avgust godine, zabilježili su rast od 3,0%. U strukturi tekućih prihoda najveće učešće od 67,7% ostvarili su prihodi od poreza, zatim doprinosi 26,0%, naknade 2,7%, ostali prihodi 1,7%, takse 1,4% i primici od otplate odobrenih kredita 0,5%. Prihodi od poreza su u avgustu bili viši od planiranih za 4,7%. Veće ostvarenje od plana realizovano je kod poreza na dodatu vrijednost (13,9% iznad plana) i kod akciza (1,3% iznad plana) dok su svi ostali poreski prihodi bili manji od planiranih. Naplata akciza ostvarena je u iznosu od 15 miliona eura, što je u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine povećanje od 5,8%, koje je nastalo, s jedne strane, zbog izmjene strukture akciza u odnosu na prošlu godinu, a sa druge strane zbog drugačije tehnike plaćanja akciza. U strukturi ostalih tekućih prihoda, veće ostvarenje od plana ostvareno je samo kod primitaka od otplate kredita, i to za 14,9%. Izdaci budžeta (ukupni izdaci umanjeni za otplatu dugova), u avgustu godine, iznosili su 93,8 miliona eura, ili 2,9% BDP-a. U odnosu na avgust godine rashodi su bili niži za 6,0%. U odnosu na avgust godine, došlo je do rasta izdataka na poziciji bruto zarada (8,8%), Prava iz oblasti socijalne zaštite (11,9%), dok je na poziciji Prava iz oblasti PIO došlo do pada izdataka za 4,1%. Značajniji rast izdataka ostvaren je na poziciji subvencija, koje su u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine povećane skoro tri puta. U avgustu je kapitalni budžet iznosio 5,1 miliona eura. Budžet Crne Gore, u avgustu godine, ostvario je suficit od 18,6 miliona eura, ili 0,6% BDP-a, dok je za prvih osam mjeseci budžetski deficit iznosio 42,6 miliona eura ili 1,3% BDP-a. 2 Procjenjeni BDP za godinu iznosi miliona eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Septembar

31 Graph 15 - Structure of total FDI inflow, January-August 2011 Source: CBM Budget of Montenegro According to estimates of the Ministry of Finance, current revenues of the Budget of Montenegro and state funds in August 2011 amounted to EUR million or 3.4% of the estimated GDP. 2 Current revenues were 0.6% higher than planned for this month and 3.0% higher than in August In the structure of current revenues, taxes accounted for the main share of 67.7%, followed by contributions with 26.0%, fees with 2.7%, other revenues with 1.7%, duties with 1.4%, and revenues from loan repayments with 0.5%. Revenues from the tax collection were 4.7% higher than planned. Higher realization of the plan was recorded with VAT collection (13.9% more than planned) and at excise duties (1.3% more than planned), while all remaining tax revenues were lower than planned. The excise duties were collected at the amount of EUR 15 million, or 5.8% more than in the same period of previous year, which was the result of changed structure of excise duties as per previous year, on one hand, and due to different technique in paying taxes, on the other hand. In the structure of other current revenues, higher realization than planned was recorded only in revenues from loan repayment (14.9%). Consolidated budget expenditures (total revenues less debt repayments) amounted to EUR 93.8 million or 2.9% of GDP, being 6.0% lower than in August In relation to August 2010, expenditures at the positions gross wages and social protection rights recorded respective increase by 8.8% and 11.9%, while rights in the pension and disability insurance area decreased by 4.1%. More significant increase in expenditures was recorded in subsidies, which increased almost three times year-on-year. The capital budget amounted to EUR 5.1 million in August this year. In August 2011, the Budget of Montenegro ran a deficit of EUR 18.6 million or 0.6% of GDP, whereas the deficit in the first eight months of the current year amounted to EUR 42.6 million or 1.3% of GDP. 2 Estimated GDP for 2011 amounts to EUR 3,275 million. 31 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

32 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika (preliminarni podaci) Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics (preliminary data) Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table CBM Survey, end-period balance, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SDR Strana valuta Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Rezervna pozicija u MMF-u Ostala potrazivanja Ukupno Depoziti SDR alokacija 8 ( ) Ostale obaveze Ukupno Neto strana aktiva Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja Potraživanja od ostalih sektora Ukupno 12 ( ) 13(8-12) (15-16) ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti Ukupno 23 (21+22) Po viđenju Oročeni Ukupno Ukupan kapital (24+25) ** ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun June Jul July Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun June Jul July Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Monetary gold and SDR holdings 8 ( ) ( ) 13(8-12) (15-16) ( ) (21+22) (24+25) 27 Claims on Liabilities to Securities IMF Reserve Other Demand Time Foreign currency Deposits SDR Other other than Loans Reserve Total Deposits Total Net Claims on Central Central Net claims Claims on allocation liabilities shares position foreign banks Government Government Total Other Total Total reqirements deposits deposits deposits Total other sectors items capital assets Net claims on Central Government (net) Banks deposits Deposits of other sectors by Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Izvrsena revizija podataka i metodologije za period od godine Izvor: CBCG * Central Bank of Montenegro does not issue currency; EURO is the legal tender in Montenegro **Data and methodology revised since 2007 Source: CBM Statistički bilten Septembar