Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Januar Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro January 2007

Transcription

1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br.6 Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Mr Ljubiša Krgović Mr Milojica Dakić Mr Goran Knežević Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Dr. Franjo Štiblar PRIPREMA: GRAFIČKI UREDNIK: SEKTOR ZA ISTRAŽIVANJE I STATISTIKU Dr. Nikola Fabris, glavni ekonomista Marijana Mitrović, pomoćnik direktora Danijela Vukajlović Grba, pomoćnik direktora Vesna Saveljić, šef Odjeljenja za analizu i istraživanja kretanja u realnom sektoru Milica Vlahović, šef Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Svetlana Cerović, šef Odjeljenja za fiskalne analize Boris Kilibarda, šef Odjeljenja za platni bilans Tanja Radunović, viši savjetnik Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Andrijana Vujović Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: PREPARED BY: TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Ljubiša Krgović, MS, president Milojica Dakić, MS Goran Knežević, MS Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Franjo Štiblar, PhD RESEARCH AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Nikola Fabris, PhD, Chief Economist Marijana Mitrović, assistant director Danijela Vukajlović Grba, assistant director Vesna Saveljić, chief of Real Sector Developments Analysis and Research Division Milica Vlahović, chief of Monetary Research and Statistics Division Svetlana Cerović, chief of Fiscal Analysis Division Boris Kilibarda, chief of Balance of Payments Division Tanja Radunović, senior analyst in Monetary Research and Statistics Division Lidija Ćirović Popadić Andrijana Vujović Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKI TRENDOVI 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 30 I Monetarna statistika 30 II Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 44 III Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 56 IV Platni promet 58 V Realni sektor 64 VI Fiskalni sektor 70 VII Međunarodne komparacije 75 VIII Metodologija 78 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 30 I Monetary Statistics 30 II Money Market and Capital Market 44 III International Economic Relations 56 IV Payment operations 58 V Real Sector Developments 64 VI Fiscal Developments 71 VII International Comparison 75 VIII Methodology 79 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Godišnja inflacija bila je niža od projektovne. Ostvaren je rast industrijske proizvodnje i značajan rast u drugim djelatnostima: turizmu, šumarstvu, saobraćaju. Impozantan rast u građevinskoj djelatnosti. Rast novčane mase, depozitne i kreditne aktivnosti praćen je visokim nivoom likvidnosti bankarskog sistema. Evidentan je pad aktivnih kamatnih stopa. Ostvaren je budžetski suficit. Rastući deficit tekućeg računa djelimično je pokriven suficitom usluga i stranim direktnim investicijama. Ipak neodrživo je visok i zahtijeva korektivne mjere. Kretanje cijena U decembru su cijene na malo bile više za 0,2% u odnosu na novembar, čemu je doprinio rast cijena poljoprivrednih proizvoda (2,1%), zatim cijena roba (0,2%) i cijena industrijskih prehrambenih proizvoda (0,1%). Cijene usluga, industrijskih neprehrambenih proizvoda, i cijene pića su u odnosu na prethodni mjesec ostale na istom nivou. Godišnja inflacija, mjerena indeksom cijena na malo, iznosila je 2,0% i za 0,2 procentna poena je viša nego u godini. Ipak, bila je ispod planirane za godinu (3,0%). Mjerena indeksom troškova života godišnja inflacija je bila nešto viša i iznosila je 2,8%. Grafik br. 1 - Cijene na malo Izvor: Monstat Industrijski proizvodi su u decembru pojeftinili za 0,4%, usljed pada cijena materijala za reprodukciju (-0,6%), dok su cijene sredstava za rad i materijala za ličnu potrošnju ostale na istom nivou kao i prethodnog mjeseca. Na godišnjem nivou cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda su porasle za 2,9%, što je prije svega posljedica značajnog rasta cijena roba za ličnu potrošnju (5,5%) i materijala za reprodukciju (1,6%), dok su cijene sredstva rada ostale nepromijenjene u odnosu na kraj godine. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 8

9 Macroeconomic Developments The annual inflation in 2006 was lower than forecasted, with growths recorded in industrial production, tourism, forestry, and transport. A remarkable increase was recorded in construction. Increments in broad money, deposits, and lending were accompanied by high liquidity in the banking system. Declines were registered in lending interest rates. The budget recorded a surplus. The growing current account deficit was partly covered with surpluses in services and an increase in foreign direct investments, but it remains unsustainably high and calls for corrective measures. Prices Retail prices in December were 0.2% higher than in the previous month, mainly due to increases in the prices of agricultural products (2.1%), goods (0.2%), and manufactured food products (0.1%). The prices of services, manufactured non-food products, and beverages remained the same as in November. The annual inflation, measured by the retail price index, amounted to 2%, being 0.2 percentage points higher than in 2005, but 3% still lower than projected for 2006 (3%). However, measured by the cost of living index, inflation was somewhat higher 2.8%. Graph 1 - Retail prices Source: Monstat Compared to the previous month, the prices of industrial products fell by 0.4% in December due to a decline in the prices of intermediate goods (-0.6%), whereas the prices of capital goods and consumer goods remained the same as in November. The annual increase in the producers` prices of manufactured products amounted to 2.9%, primarily due to a significant growth in the prices of consumer goods and intermediate goods of 5.5% and 1.6%, respectively, while the prices of capital goods remained at the level at end Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Grafik br. 2 - Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja je porasla za 4% u decembru u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a najviše joj je doprinio rast vađenja ruda i kamena (12,9%) i proizvodnje električne energije (17,5%). Prerađivačka industrija je u decembru zabilježila pad od 0,7% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. U toku godine, osam industrijskih grana je zabilježilo pad proizvodnje. On je bio najizrazitiji u proizvodnji duvanskih proizvoda i hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda. Ostalih sedamnaest proizvodnih grana su zabilježile rast. Najznačajniji rast ostvaren jeproizvodnji namještaja, mašina i uređaja, prehrambenih proizvoda, osnovnih metala, kao i kod vađenja energetskih sirovina. Na godišnjem nivou ostvaren je rast industrijske proizvodnje od 1,0%. Grafik br. 3 - Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Turizam U decembru je Crnu Goru posjetilo 17,7 hiljada turista, od čega je 47,3% bilo stranih turista. U poređenju sa prethodnim mjesecom broj turista je bio viši za 37,5%, a u odnosu na decembar godine za 78,9%. Na godišnjem nivou ostvareno je 16,3% više dolazaka i 13,9% više noćenja nego u godini. Crnu Goru je u godini posjetilo impozantnih turista. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 10

11 Graph 2 - Producer prices Source: Monstat Industrial Output Industrial production in December was 4% higher than in the previous month, largely because of increases in the mining and quarrying and the production of electricity of 12.9% and 17.5%, respectively. Manufacturing industry recorded a fall of 0.7% in comparison with November. In 2006, eight industry sectors recorded production falls, the most remark able being in the manufacturing of tobacco products and chemicals and chemical products. The remaining eighteen sectors recorded growths, the highest being in the manufacturing of furniture, machines and appliances, food, basic metals, and the quarrying of energy raw material. The annual increase in industrial output is 1%. Graph 3 - Industrial output Source: Monstat Tourism Some 17,700 tourists visited Montenegro in December, of which 47.3% were foreign tourists. Compared to the previous month and December 2005, the number of tourists rose by 37.5% and 78.9%, respectively. The annual increases in the number of tourist visits and overnights amounted to 16.3% and 13.9%, respectively. The number of tourists who visited Montenegro in 2006 is no less than 953, Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Saobraćaj, šumarstvo i građevinarstvo U jedanaest mjeseci godine u odnosu na isti period godine, prevezeno je više putnika i roba u drumskom, pomorskom i vazdušnom saobraćaju, kao i više roba u željezničkom saobraćaju, dok je prevoz putnika željeznicom i u gradskom saobraćaju i ptt saobraćaj zabilježio pad. Proizvodnja šumskih sortimenata u u odnosu na godinu bilježi rast od 16,7%. Proizvedeno je ukupno 325,9 hiljada m 3 šumskih sortimenata. Tokom cijele godine ostvaren je značajan rast proizvodnje u ovoj djelatnosti. Samo je u januaru, maju i novembru proizvodnja bila niža nego u uporednim mjesecima 2005.godine. U decembru je u odnosu na isti mjesec godine ostvaren rast proizvodnje šumskih sortimenata od 40,8%. Vrijednost ukupno izvršenih građevinskih radova u Crnoj Gori u godini iznosila je 206,8 miliona eura, što je za 157,9% više nego u godini. Mjereno efektivnim časovima rada rast proizvodnje viši je u posmatranom periodu za 68%. Stavljanjem u odnos vrijednosti izvršenih radova i efektivnih časova rada, dobijamo da je produktivnost rada u građevinarstvu porasla za 53,5%. Ovaj pokazatelj govori i o rastu profitne stope u u ovoj djelatnosti. Novčana masa Monetarni agregat M21 u decembru je dostigao maksimalni iznos od 1,6 milijardi eura, pri čemu je bio viši za 14% u odnosu na novembar. To je najveći mjesečni rast ovog agregata u toku godine. Prosječni mjesečni rast M21 u toku godine iznosio je 5,3%. Godišnji rast ovog agregata iznosio je 84,5%, što je znatno veći rast u odnosu na prethodne godine (58,7% u i 10,6% 2004.godini). Grafik br. 4 Monetarni agregat M21, u eura Izvor: CBCG Ukupna aktiva i pasiva banaka Bilansna suma banaka je na kraju godine iznosila 1,42 milijarde eura, i viša je u odnosu na novembar za 13,8%, što predstavlja takođe najveći mjesečni rast u toku ove godine i znatno je iznad prosječnog mjesečnog rasta (6,2%). Godišnji rast bilansne sume banaka iznosio je 104,8%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 12

13 Transport, Forestry, Construction The transport of passengers and goods in road, maritime, and air traffic was larger in the first eleven months of than in the same period in 2005, as was the transport of goods via railways. The transport of passengers via railways and public transport recorded a decrease, as did the postal transport. The manufacturing of wood products in 2006 recorded an increase of 16.7% in comparison with 2005, amounting to 325,000 m 3. The month-on-month comparison of 2005 and 2006 shows that production falls were recorded only in January, May, and November. Compared to the same month in 2005, the manufacturing of wood products in December 2006 recorded an increase of 40.8%. The value of performed construction work in 2006 amounted to EUR million, being 157.9% higher than in Observed through effective working hours, this increase is 68%. The value of performed work to effective working hours ratio results in the productivity increase of 53.5%, an indicator that shows an increase in the rate of profit in construction. Broad money Broad money M21 reached a new record amount in December 2006 of EUR 1.6 billion, being 14% higher than in the previous month. This is the highest monthly increase of this monetary aggregate in the reporting year. The average monthly increase in M21 in 2006 amounted to 5.3%. The annual increase of this monetary aggregate was 84.5%, which is much more than in previous years (58.7% in 2005 and 10.6% in 2004). Graph 4 - Broad money (M21), EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Total Assets and Liabilities of Banks Total assets of banks at end-december 2006 amounted to EUR 1.42 billion, which is an increase of 13.8% in relation to the previous month, and also the highest monthly increase recorded in the reporting year, much above the monthly average (6.2%). The annual increase of total assets of banks amounted to 104.8%. 1 Data on transportation for December 2006 were not available at the time this Bulletin was prepared. 13 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Na strani aktive u odnosu na prethodni mjesec smanjene su samo pozicije rezervisanja za kreditne gubitke (-0,5%) i rezervisanja za gubitke na ostale stavke aktive (-1,6%), dok su u pasivi sve stavke zabilježile rast. Najveći rast u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježile su sledeće stavke: na strani aktive novčana sredstva i depoziti kod depozitnih institucja (20,3%) i hartije od vrijednosti (26,2%), a na strani pasive depoziti (15,4%) i ostale obaveze (14,6%). Na godišnjem nivou najveći rast u aktivi je zabilježila pozicija neto kredita (127,8%), dok su u pasivi značajno rasli depoziti (119,6%) i pozajmice (115,8%). Depoziti Ukupni depoziti su u decembru zabilježili mjesečni rast od 15,4% i iznosili su 1,07 milijardi eura, što predstavlja najveći mjesečni rast u toku godine. Godišnji rast depozita je iznosio 119,6%. Ukupni depoziti i pozajmice banaka u decembru su iznosili 1,24 milijarde eura, dok su ukupni krediti odobreni klijentima iznosili 844,4 miliona eura. Grafik br. 5 - Odobreni krediti, depoziti i pozajmice banaka, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Depoziti stanovništva Depoziti stanovništva su u decembru iznosili 498,6 miliona eura što predstavlja 46,5% ukupnih depozita bankarskog sistema. U odnosu na novembar depoziti stanovništva su porasli za 17,5%, dok je njihov godišnji rast iznosio 183,7%. Grafik br. 6- Depoziti stanovništva ročnost, u milionima eura Izvor: CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 14

15 Only two positions on the assets side declined in December in comparison with the previous month, those being loan loss provisions (0.5%) and provisions for other assets items (1.6%), whereas all liabilities positions recorded increases. The highest assets side growths were in monetary assets and deposits with depository institutions (20.3%) and securities (26.2%), and on the liabilities side in deposits (15.4%) and other liabilities (14.6%). The highest annual increments on the assets side recorded net loans (127.8%), and those on the liabilities side being deposits (119.6%) and borrowings (115.8%). Deposits Total deposits in banks amounted to EUR 1.07 billion in December 2006, recording monthly increase of 15.4%, which is the highest average monthly increase in the reporting year. The annual growth in deposits was 119.6%. Total deposits with banks and their borrowings amounted to EUR 1.24 billion, while total bank loans disbursed to their clients amounted to EUR million. Graph 5 - Loans granted, deposits and bank borrowings, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Deposits by Households Deposits by households in December 2006 amounted to EUR million, which represents 46.5% of total deposits in the banking system. Compared to the previous month, they increased by 17.5%, and their annual growth was 183.7%. Graph 6 - Deposits by households maturity, EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 Najveće učešće u strukturi depozita domaćinstava u decembru su imali depoziti po viđenju na koje se odnosilo 59%, dok su oročeni depoziti predstavljali 41%. U strukturi oročenih depozita najveće učešće su imali depoziti oročeni od 3 mjeseca do godinu dana (77,5%), zatim depoziti oročeni do 3 mjeseca (12,6%), depoziti oročeni od 1 do 3 godine (9,5%), dok se na depozite oročene preko 3 godine odnosilo svega 0,4%. Krediti Ukupno odobreni krediti od strane bankarskog sistema iznosli su na kraju decembra 844,4 miliona eura, što je 10,2% više nego u prethodnom mjesecu. Viši iznos kredita, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, odobren je privredi (43,8 mil. eura), domaćinstvima (32,6 mil. eura) i Centralnoj Vladi (3,5 mil. eura), dok je manje kredita odobreno državnim fondovima (za 4,2 mil. eura). Na godišnjem nivou rast kredita iznosi 124,6%. Od ukupno odobrenih kredita privredi je odobreno 55,8%, dok je domaćinstvima odobreno 36,8%. Grafik br. 7 - Ukupni krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Tabela br. 1- Neto štednja stanovništva i privrede (u milionima eura) Izvor: CBCG Decembar 2004 Decembar 2005 Decembar 2006 Neto štednja stanovništva 4,9 71,4 187,6 Neto štednja privrede -90,1-86,2-153,5 Tabela br.1. pokazuje da raste neto dug privrede i neto štednja domaćinstava. Ukupni depoziti privrede na kraju decembra iznosili su 318,0 milion eura, dok je u istom periodu privredi odobreno kredita 471,6 milion eura, tako da je neto štednja privrede imala negativan predznak i iznosila je -153,5 miliona eura. Stanovništvo je deponovalo kod banaka sredstava u iznosu 498,5 miliona eura, a od banaka uzelo kredita u iznosu 310,9 miliona eura, tako da je neto štednja domaćinstava u ovom mjesecu iznosila 187,6 milion eura. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 16

17 Demand deposits and time deposits accounted for 59% and 41% of total deposits by households in December, respectively. In the structure of time deposits, the main contributors were deposits with an agreed maturity from 3 months to 1 year, 77.5%, followed by a 12.6% share of deposits termed up to 3 months, and a 9.5% share of deposits termed from 1 to 3 years. Deposits with an agreed maturity of over 3 years accounted for a mere 0.4% of total time deposits. Loans The value of total loans disbursed by the banking system in December 2006 amounted to EUR million, which is 10.2% more than in the previous month. More loans were granted to the corporate sector (by EUR 43.8 million), households (by EUR 32.6 million), and the central government (by EUR 3.5 million), and less to the government funds (by EUR 4.2 million). The annul growth in loans amounted to 124.6%. Of total loans disbursed, those to the corporate sector and household made up 55.8% and 36.8, respectively. Graph 7 - Total loans and deposits, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro December 2004 December 2005 December 2006 Net savings of households Net savings of corporate sector Table 1 Savings of households and corporate sector, EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Table 1 above shows that net indebtedness of the corporate sector and net savings by households are on the increase. Total deposits placed and loans taken by the corporate sector amounted to EUR 318 million and EUR million, this sector had a negative net savings at end-december 2006 of EUR million. Households deposited EUR million and took EUR million worth of loans, so net savings of this sector amounted to EUR million in December. 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Grafik br. 8 - Krediti privrede i stanovništva, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Likvidnost Likvidnost bankarskog sektora u toku godine bila je visoka, što potvrđuje konstantno viši nivo raspoloživih likvidnih sredstava banaka u zemlji i inostranstvu od izvršenih plaćanja. Ukupna sredstva banaka raspoloživa za plaćanje, tokom godine kretala su se u intervalu od 329 do 505 miliona eura i iznosila su prosječno 416 miliona eura. Izvršena plaćanja banaka konstantno su bila značajno niža od raspoloživih sredstava za plaćanje i, tokom godine, prosječno su iznosila 49 miliona eura, na osnovu čega je ostvarivan suficit u prosječnom iznosu od 367 miliona eura. Obavezna rezerva U decembru je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec obavezna rezerva banaka porasla za 23%. Na račune obavezne rezerve u zemlji i inostranstvu banke su u decembru izdvojile 172,8 miliona eura. Od ukupnog iznosa izdvojenih sredstava na račune Centralne banke u inostranstvu izdvojeno je 88,8% ukupno izdvojenih sredstava, na račun obavezne rezerve u zemlji 9,3%, dok je u državnim zapisima izdvojeno 1,9%. Grafik br. 9 - Obavezna rezerva, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Izvor: CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 18

19 Graph 8 - Loans to the corporate sector and households, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Liquidity Liquidity of the banking sector in 2006 was high, showing a much higher level of the available liquid assets in the country and abroad than effected payments. Total assets available for payments ranged between EUR 329 million and EUR 505 million in the reporting year, the average being EUR 416 million. Banks` effected payments were constantly much below the assets available for payments, the average in the reporting period being EUR 49 million, and the average surplus of liquid assets over due payments amounted to EUR 367 million. Reserve Requirements Compared to the previous month, reserve requirements of banks rose by 23% in December Banks allocated a total of EUR million of reserve requirements, of which 88.8% was allocated to the Central Bank of Montenegro`s international account, 9.3% to the reserve account in the country, and 1.9% was allocated in Treasury bills. Graph 9 - Reserve requirements at end-periods, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije Bilansna suma MFI u decembru je zabilježila rast od 4,6% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec i iznosila je 34 miliona eura. Krediti koje su ove institucije odobrile svojim klijentima, u istom periodu, bilježile su rast od 7,1%. Na dvije najveće MFI odnosi se 95% ukupne bilansne sume i ukupno odobrenih kredita. Aktivne kamatne stope Prosječna ponderisana nominalna aktivna kamatna stopa (PPNKS) bila je u decembru niža u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 0,21 procentnih poena, dok je prosječna ponderisana nominalna efektivna kamatna stopa (PPEKS) u istom periodu zabilježila pad od 0,40 procentnih poena. Pri tome su aktivne kamatne stope na kredite odobrene pravnim licima bilježile pad u odnosu na prethodni mjesec: PPNKS od 0,29 procentnih poena, PPEKS od 0,58 procentnih poena, dok su na kredite fizičkim licima bilježile pad: PPNKS od 0,20 procentnih poena, PPEKS od 0,15 procentnih poena. Posmatrano po djelatnostima zabilježen je pad kamatnih stopa u većini djelatnosti: energetici, rudarstvu, trgovini, proizvodnji, građevinarstvu i trgovini nekretninama. Najveći pad bilježile su PPNKS i PPEKS na kredite odobrene rudarskoj djelatnosti (bile su niže za 1,00 procentna poena obje), i PPEKS na kredite odobrene proizvodnji (-2,07 procentnih poena). Rast kamatnih stopa od 0,47 (PPNKS) i 1,31 (PPEKS) zabilježen je kod kategorije ostalo. Posmatrano po ključnim sektorima zabilježen je pad efektivnih i nominalnih kamatnih stopa na kredite odobrene privatnom sektoru (PPNKS 0,24 i PPEKS 0,48 procentnih poena), kao i pad PPNKS na kredite odobrene državnom sektoru (0,05 procentnih poena). Rast stopa zabilježen je na kredite odobrene stranom sektoru od 0,34 (PPNKS) i 0,59 (PPEKS) procentnih poena, kao i na kredite odobrene državnom sektoru 0,02 (PPEKS) procentna poena. Na godišnjem nivou, na nivou sistema ostvaren je značajan pad kamatnih stopa. PPNKS je niža za 1,70 procentnih poena ( na kraju godine je iznosila 10,76%), dok je PPEKS niža za 2,17 procentnih poena ( na kraju godine iznosila je 12,11%). Tržište novca U decembru je održana jedna aukcija 91. dnevnih državnih zapisa na kojoj je ponuđeno i prodato 500 hiljada eura zapisa. Tražnja za zapisima bila veća od ponude za 60%. Kamatna stopa postignuta na aukciji iznosila je 0,97%. Ovo je bila petnaesta po redu aukcija državnih zapisa u godini (održano je osam aukcija 182. dnevnih i sedam aukcija 91. dnevnih državnih zapisa). U poređenju sa godinom održane su 23 aukcije manje, a dug Budžeta, po osnovu prodaje državnih hartija od vrijednosti, smanjio se za 96,4 miliona eura. Tržište kapitala Ukupan promet na crnogorskim berzama u godini iznosio je 377 miliona eura i bio je viši za 90% ili 178,6 miliona eura u odnosu na godinu. U decembru je na crnogorskim berzama ostvaren izrazito visok promet od 146 miliona eura, čemu je doprinio promet akcija Crnogorske komercijalne banke (104 miliona eura), tako da je ostvareni promet bio veći nego prethodnog mjeseca za 400,6%, a u odnosu na decembar godine bio je veći za 412%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 20

21 Micro-Credit Financial Institutions (MFIs) Total assets of MFIs amounted to EUR 34 million, recording a monthly increase in December of 4.6%. The value of loans MFIs disbursed to their clients in December rose by 7.1% in the previous month. Assets of, and loans disbursed by, the two largest MFIs accounted for 95% of total assets and loans of these financial institutions. Lending Interest Rates The average weighted nominal lending interest rate (AWNI) and the corresponding effective interest rate (AWEI) fell in December in comparison with the previous month by 0.21 and 0.40 percentage points, respectively. Lending interest rates on loans disbursed to legal entities and households both fell in comparison with the previous month (legal entities - AWNI by 0.29, and AWEI by 0.58, percentage points; households AWNI by 0.20, and AWEI by 0.25, percentage points). Observed by activities, falls in interest rates in December in comparison with the previous month were recorded in the energy sector, mining and quarrying, trade, production, construction, and real estate trade. The largest falls were recorded in AWEI and AWNI on loans to the mining and quarrying sector (both fell by 1 percentage point), and AWEI on loans granted in production (2.07 percentage points). Increases were recorded in the category Other (AWNI by 0.47, and AWEI by 1.31, percentage points) Observed by key sectors, falls were recorded in interest rates on loans granted to the private sector (AWNI by 0.24, and AWEI by 0.48, percentage points) and on loans disbursed to the government sector (AWNI by 0.05 percentage points). Increases were registered in lending rates to the foreign sector (AWNI of 0.34, and AWNI of 0.59, percentage points), and the government sector (AWEI of 0.02 percentage points). Remarkable falls in interest rates in the system were recorded at the annual level AWNI of 1.70 percentage points (10.76% at end-2005) and ASEI of 2.17 percentage points (12.11% at end-2005). Money Market Only one auction of 91-day maturing T-bills was held in December. The total value of issued and sold T-bills was EUR 500,000, but demand exceeded the offer by 60%. The achieved weighted interest rate at the auction amounted to 0.97%. This was the fifteenth auction of T-bills in 2006 (eight and seven auctions of 182-day T-bills and 91-day T-bills, respectively). Compared to 2005, 23 fewer auctions were held in the reporting year, and the Budget debt arising from the sale of T-bill fell by EUR 96.4 million. Capital Market Total turnover in Montenegrin stock exchanges in 2006 amounted to EUR 377 million, being 90% or EUR million higher than in Total turnover on the Montenegrin stock exchanges in December 2006 amounted to EUR 146 million, mainly due to the trade of shares of Crnogorska Komercijalna Bank (EUR 104 million), resulting in a monthly increase of 400.6% in comparison with the previous month, and a 412% increase in relation to the same month in Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 Na kraju godine kapitalizacija na Nex montenegro berzi iznosila je 1,95 milijarde eura što je za 2,1% niža kapitalizacija u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Na Montenegroberzi kapitalizacija je iznosila 1,66 milijarde eura i bila je niža je za 1,9% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. I pored velikog obima prometa berzanski indeksi su bilježili pad. Tako je indeks Moste bio na kraju decembra u odnosu na kraj novembra niži za 12 (1,28%) indeksnih poena, a indeksi NEX20 (-0,29%) i NEXPIF su bili niži za 707 i 1134 indeksna poena (-9,22%), respektivno. Grafik br Kretanje indeksa Moste Izvor: Montenegroberza Grafik br Kretanje indeksa NEX20 i NEXPIF Izvor: Nex Montenegro berza Platni bilans Preliminarni podaci iz platnog bilansa Republike Crne Gore pokazuju da je tokom devet mjeseci godine deficit na tekućem računu iznosio 318,5 miliona eura ili 25,2% BDP, što je za 255,2 miliona eura veći deficit u odnosu na isti period godine. Porast deficita tekućeg računa je u najvećem djelu posledica porasta spoljnotrgovinskog deficita. Pokrivenost spoljnotrgovinskog deficita suficitom ostvarenim na ostalim podračunima tekućeg računa iznosila je 48,5% i za 35 procentnih poena je manja od pokrivenosti tokom devet mjeseci godine. Deficit na računu robne razmjene u prvih devet mjeseci godine je iznosio 618,8 miliona eura (49% BDP), što je za 61,1% veći deficit u odnosu na isti period godine. Izvoz je porastao za 14,7% i iznosio je 403,9 miliona eura. Uvoz u prvih devet mjeseci godine je iznosio 1022,7 miliona eura, što je za 38,9% više u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Pokrivenost robnog uvoza robnim izvozom je u posmatranom periodu iznosila 39,5% i bila je manja u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine kada je iznosila 47,8%. 1 1 Izvorni podaci MONSTAT-a su korigovani podacima koji se odnose na popravke na robi i robu koja prelazi granicu a ne carini se (metodološka korekcija). Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 22

23 At end-decembar, capitalisation in Nex Montenegro stock exchange amounted to EUR 1.95 billion, which is 2.1% less than in the previous month, whereas capitalisation in Montenegroberza stock exchange amounted toeur 1.66 billion or 1.9% less than in the previous month. Regardless of the large turnover, stock exchange indices decreased in December in comparison with the previous month. Thus, the MOSTE index fell by 12 (-1.28%)index points, and the NEX 20 (-0.29%) and NEXPIF indices fell by 707 and 1134 index points (-9.22%), respectively. Graph 10 - MOSTE index Source: Montenegroberza stock exschange Graph 11 - NEX20 and NEXPIF indices Source: Nex Montenegro stock exschange Balance of Payments Preliminary data on Montenegro`s balance of payments for the first nine months of 2006 show that the current account deficit amounted to EUR million or 25.2% of the ninemonth GDP, which is EUR million more than in the same period of The current account deficit increase was primarily due to an increase in the foreign trade deficit. The coverage of the foreign trade deficit with the surpluses achieved in other current account sub-balances amounted to 48.5%, which is 35 percentage points less than in the corresponding period of A deficit in the sub-balance of goods amounted to EUR million (49% of the ninemonth GDP), which is 61.1% more than in the first nine months of Exports increased by 10.4%, amounting to EUR million. Exports in the reporting period totalled EUR million, being 14.7% higher than in the comparative period last year, whereas imports rose by 38.9%, amounting to EUR 1,022.7 million. The visible imports/exports coverage was 39.5%, being lower than in the same period last year when it amounted to 47.9%. 2 2 MONSTAT source data was corrected for data related to the items repaired goods and goods crossing the border but not being cleared by customs (the methodological correction). 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 Grafik br Komponente tekućeg računa po kvartalima godine Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Grafik br Pokrivenost robnog uvoza izvozom, , u % Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Učešće spoljnotrgovinskog deficita u ukupnoj robnoj razmjeni u prvih devet mjeseci ove godine iznosilo je 43,4%, što je za 8 procentnih poena veće učešće nego u istom periodu godine. Grafik br Kvartalni uvoz i izvoz roba, , u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Ukupni obim razmjene usluga u periodu januar septembar godine iznosio je 539,2 miliona eura ili 37,7% više nego tokom prvih devet mjeseci godine. Prihodi od usluga u prvih devet mjeseci godine iznosili su 373 miliona eura i povećani su za 78,7 miliona eura ili 26,7% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Rashodi od usluga, istovremeno su iznosili 166,2 miliona eura i povećani su za 68,9 miliona eura ili 70,8% u odnosu na isti period godine. Osnovni razlog rasta jeste značajno povećanje rashoda po osnovu Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 24

25 Graph 12 Current account components by quarters, Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat Graph 13 Visible imports/exports coverage, , in % Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat A share of the foreign trade deficit in total visible trade amounted to 43.4% in the first nine months of 2006, which is 8 percentage points more than in the same period of Graph 14 Quarterly visible imports and exports, , EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat The total volume of services trade in the period January-September 2006 amounted to EUR million or 37.7% more than in the corresponding period of Income from services amounted to EUR 373 million, increasing by EUR 78.7 million or 26.7%, and expenditure for services amounted to EUR million, being EUR 68.9 million or 70.8% higher. The main reason for the increased expenditure is an increase in the expenditure for construction services due to engaging foreign construction companies to perform investment work. The 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 građevinskih usluga, što je posljedica povećanog angažovanja građevinskih firmi iz inostranstva za izvođenje investicionih radova. Saldo usluga za devet mjeseci godine zabilježio je suficit od 206,9 miliona eura. U poređenju sa prvih devet mjeseci godine, ove godine je ostvaren veći suficit na računu usluga za 9,8 miliona eura. Posmatrano po pojedinim uslugama najveći suficit je ostvaren u oblasti putovanja i turizma 257 miliona eura, dok je najveći deficit ostvaren u oblasti građevinskih usluga 47,2 miliona eura. Prihodi u podbilansu dohodaka, za devet mjeseci godine, iznosili su 44,3 miliona eura, od čega 42,2 miliona eura čine kompenzacije zaposlenih, a 2,1 miliona eura prihod od međunarodnog ulaganja. Rashodi po osnovu dohotka u posmatranom periodu godine iznosili su 23,4 miliona eura, od čega se 3,5 miliona eura odnosi na plate nerezidenata a 19,8 miliona eura na plaćanje po osnovu kamata na dugoročne i kratkoročne kredite. Saldo dohotka u periodu januar septembar godine bio je pozitivan i iznosio je 20,9 miliona eura, što je za 1,8% više nego u istom periodu godine. Priliv tekućih transfera tokom prvih devet mjeseci godine iznosio je 83,4 miliona eura. Od toga 5,5 miliona eura se odnosilo na državu, a 77,8 miliona na Ostale sektore. U okviru ostalih sektora priliv po osnovu radničkih zarada iznosio je 71,1 miliona eura, dok su ostali transferi iznosili 6,7 miliona eura. U istom periodu odliv tekućih transfera iznosio je 10,8 miliona eura, od čega Ostali sektori čine 9,9 miliona eura, a sektor Država 1 milion eura. Na računu tekućih transfera za prvih devet mjeseci godine registrovan je suficit u iznosu od 72,5 miliona eura, što je za 30% manje nego u prvih devet mjeseci godine. Priliv portfolio investicija iznosio je 28 miliona, dok je odliv iznosio 21,4 miliona eura. Kod ostalih investicija priliv sredstava iznosio je 288,5 miliona eura, dok je istovremeno odliv iznosio 264,1 miliona eura. Saldo Ostalih investicija u prvih devet mjeseci godine iznosio je 24,4 miliona eura. Strane direktne investicije Prema preliminarnim podacima strane direktne investicije su u 12 mjeseci godine iznosile 644,3 miliona eura, pri čemu se 337,9 miliona eura odnosi na ulaganja nerezidenata u nekretnine, 252,1 miliona eura na ulaganje nerezidenata u preduzeća i banke, dok se 45,1 miliona eura odnosi na strane direktne investicije u formi interkompanijskog duga. Odliv po osnovu direktnih investicija u istom periodu je iznosio 177,6 miliona eura od čega se 81 milion eura odnosilo na nekretnine, 64,4 miliona eura na povlačenje udjela stranog kapitala u domaćim bankama, dok se 20 miliona eura odnosilo na investiranje domaćih kompanija u matične kompanije (inofirme koje su je osnovale). Neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija za dvanaest mjeseci godine iznosio je 466,7 miliona eura. Grafik br. 15 Priliv stranih direktnih investicija u 000 eura Izvor : CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 26

27 balance of services recorded a surplus of EUR million in this period, which is EUR 9.8 million more than in the comparative period. The largest surpluses were achieved in transportation and tourism, EUR 257 million, and the largest deficit was recorded in construction services, EUR 47.2 million. Income receipts in the nine-month period of 2006 amounted to EUR 44.3 million, of which EUR 42.2 million was compensations of employees, and EUR 2.1 million were international investments. Income payments totalled EUR 23.4 million, of which EUR 3.5 million were salaries to non-residents, and EUR 19.8 million interest payments for long- and short-term loans. The balance of income was positive, amounting to EUR 20.9 million, which is 1.8% more than in the same period of The inflow of current transfers amounted to EUR 83.4 million in the period January- September Of this amount, EUR 5.5 million referred to the government, and EUR 77.8 million to Other sectors. Within the latter, EUR 71.1 million were remittances and EUR 6.7 million other transfers. The outflow of current transfers amounted to EUR 10.8 million, of which EUR 9.9 million referred to Other sectors, and EUR 1 million to the Government sector. The balance of current transfers recorded a surplus of EUR 72.5 million in this period, which is 30% less than in the first nine months of The inflow of portfolio investments amounted to EUR 28 million, whereas their outflow was EUR 21.4 million. As for other investments, the inflow and outflow of funds arising from loans totalled EUR million and EUR million, respectively. The balance of Other investments in the first nine months of 2006 amounted to EUR 24.4 million. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) According to preliminary data, the inflow of foreign direct investments into Montenegro in 2006 amounted to EUR million, of which EUR million were investments in real estates by non-residents, were neresident investiment in banks and companies and EUR 45.1 million were foreign direct investments as intercompany debts. At the same time, the direct investments outflow was EUR million, of which EUR 81 million referred to real estates, EUR 64.4 million to the withdrawal of foreign capital invested in Montenegrin banks, and EUR 20 million to investments of domestic companies in parent companies. The net FDI inflow in 2006 amounted to EUR million. Graph 15 - FDI inflow, in EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 27 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

28 Grafik br. 16 Struktura priliva SDI u periodu januar decembar 2006 CBCG Izvor : CBCG Budžet U godini budžet Republike Crne Gore je ostvario suficit u iznosu od 34,6 miliona eura 2. Suficit je rezultat dinamičnog rasta tekućih prihoda, posebno prihoda od poreza i naplaćenih naknada. Rastu prihoda od poreza doprinio je snažan priliv prihoda od poreza na dodatnu vrijednost, akciza i prihoda od poreze na međunarodnu trgovinu i transakcije (carine). Grafik br. 17 Budžetski suficit/deficit Izvor : Ministarstvo finansija RCG Međutim, ukoliko suficit posmatramo kao razliku izmedju ukupnih primitaka i izdataka, tada je suficit iznosio 2,5 miliona eura. 2 Suficit/Deficit kao razlika izmedju ukupnih primitaka umanjenih za pozajmice, donacije, transfere i primitke od prodaje imovine, a izdaci za otplatu glavnice po osnovu duga nastalog uzimanjem kredita i emitovanjem hartija od vrijednosti u zemlji i inostranstvu Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 28

29 Graph 16 - Structure of FDI inflow, January December 2006 Source: Central Bank of Montenegro The Budget In 2006, the Budget of the Republic of Montenegro recorded a surplus of EUR 34.6 million. 3 The surplus is a result of a dynamic increase in current revenues, especially revenues from tax collections and reimbursements. The increase in tax revenues was mainly due to a remarkable increase in the collection of VAT, excise duties, and tax on international trade and transactions (customs duties). Graph 17 Budgetary surplus/deficit Source : Montenegrin Ministry of Finance However, if we observe the surplus as the difference between total revenues and expenditure, then the surplus totalled EUR 2.5 million. 3 Surplus/Deficit as the difference between total revenues reduced for borrowings, donations, transfers and revenues from sale of property, and expenditure for principal repayment of debt arising from loans taken and securities issued in the country and abroad 29 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

30 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-periods, EUR thousand M0 Depoziti po viđenju* M1 Depoziti po viđenju** M11 Oročeni depoziti* M2 Oročeni depoziti** (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) *** *** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2006**** 483, ,805 1,076, ,824 1,096, ,875 1,502, ,872 1,600, **** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 389, , , , , ,964 1,044, ,328 1,109,771 July Avg 402, , , , , ,881 1,128, ,045 1,207,430 Aug Sep 402, , , , , ,808 1,170, ,150 1,259,861 Sep Okt 413, , , , , ,656 1,231, ,951 1,323,699 Oct Nov 420, , , , , ,803 1,305, ,185 1,403,624 Nov Dec**** 483, ,805 1,076, ,824 1,096, ,875 1,502, ,872 1,600,585 Dec**** (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) M0 Demand deposits* M1 Demand deposits** M11 Time deposits* M2 Time deposits** M21 M21 * Bez depozita Vlade RCG; ** Uključujući depozite Vlade RCG *** Stanje na ; **** Preliminarni podaci Izvor: CBCG * Without Government deposits; ** Including Government deposits *** Balance as at 31 XII 2005; **** Preliminary data Source: CBM Statistički bilten 30

31 Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-months, EUR thousand M0 M1 M11 M2 M , , , , , , , , , , * 351, , , , , * Jan 287, , , , ,753 Jan Feb 291, , , , ,080 Feb Mar 291, , , , ,809 Mar Apr 296, , , , ,307 Apr Maj 305, , , , ,119 May Jun 307, , , , ,277 Jun Jul 309, , , , ,148 Jul Avg 324, , , , ,794 Aug Sep 325, , , , ,479 Sep Okt 321, , , , ,114 Oct Nov 325, , , , ,561 Nov Dec 351, , , , ,294 Dec 2006** 483,889 1,076,694 1,096,713 1,502,569 1,600, ** Jan 336, , , , ,735 Jan Feb 328, , , , ,050 Feb Mar 335, , , , ,123 Mar Apr 356, , , , ,095 Apr Maj 359, , , , ,205 May Jun 369, ,, , ,899 1,012,589 Jun Jul 389, , ,443 1,044,501 1,109,771 July Avg 402, , ,385 1,128,781 1,207,430 Aug Sep 402, , ,711 1,170,916 1,259,861 Sep Okt 413, , ,748 1,231,939 1,323,699 Oct Nov 420, , ,439 1,305,814 1,403,624 Nov Dec** 483,889 1,076,694 1,096,713 1,502,569 1,600,585 Dec** * Stanje na ; ** Preliminarni podaci Izvor: CBCG * Balance as at 31 XII 2005; ** Preliminary data Source: CBM 31 Statistical Bulletin

32 Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review - Balance sheet of CBM balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SDR Strana valuta Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Ukupno Depoziti Ostale obaveze Ukupno Neto strana aktiva Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od ostalih Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja sektora Ukupno Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti Ukupno Po viđenju Oročeni Ukupno Ukupan kapital ) (8+9) 11 (7-10) (13-14) ( ) (19+20) (22+23) ** ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec 2006** 18,573 19, ,836 19, , , ,543 77,136-75, ,323 21, ,462 64, ,942 2, ,646 39, ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 0 14, ,770 20, , , ,885 48,732-46, ,473 12, ,587 38, ,197 2, ,191 29,183 July Aug 0 16, ,999 20, , , ,967 58,774-56, ,354 11, ,075 34, ,603 2, ,194 29,451 Aug Sep 2,893 6, ,126 19, , , ,889 69,370-67, ,844 12, ,160 27, ,107 2, ,190 29,839 Sep Okt 2,901 10, ,859 19, , , ,893 71,510-69, ,117 12, ,845 33, ,859 2, ,896 30,219 Oct Nov 3,004 13, ,295 19, , , ,891 75,094-73, ,650 12, ,098 33, ,038 3, ,146 30,123 Nov Dec** 18,573 19, ,836 19, , , ,543 77,136-75, ,323 21, ,462 64, ,942 2, ,646 39,437 Dec** Monetary gold and SDR holdings Foreign currency Deposits Securities other than shares 7 ( ) Loans Other claims Total Deposits (8+9) Other liabilities 11 (7-10) Total Net foreign assets Claims on banks Claims on central Government Liabilities to central Government 15 (13-14) 16 Net claims Claims on other sectors 17 ( ) Total Other items (net) (19+20) Net claims on central Government Banks deposits Deposits of other sectors Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* Reserve reqirement Other deposits Total Demand deposits Time deposits 24 (22+23) 25 Total Capital account * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** SPreliminarni podaci Izvor: CBCG * The Central Bank of Montenegro cannot issue money; the EUR is the official means of payment in Montenegro ** Preliminary data Source: CBM Statistički bilten 32