Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Novembar Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro November 2006

Transcription

1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br.6 Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Mr Ljubiša Krgović Mr Milojica Dakić Mr Goran Knežević Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Dr. Franjo Štiblar PRIPREMA: GRAFIČKI UREDNIK: SEKTOR ZA ISTRAŽIVANJE I STATISTIKU Dr. Nikola Fabris, glavni ekonomista Marijana Mitrović, pomoćnik direktora Danijela Vukajlović Grba, pomoćnik direktora Vesna Saveljić, šef Odjeljenja za analizu i istraživanja kretanja u realnom sektoru Milica Vlahović, šef Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Svetlana Cerović, šef Odjeljenja za fiskalne analize Boris Kilibarda, šef Odjeljenja za platni bilans Tanja Radunović, viši savjetnik Odjeljenja za monetarna istraživanja i statistiku Andrijana Vujović Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: PREPARED BY: TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Ljubiša Krgović, MS, president Milojica Dakić, MS Goran Knežević, MS Petar Drakić Krunislav Vukčević Radmila Savićević Prof. Franjo Štiblar, PhD RESEARCH AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT Nikola Fabris, PhD, Chief Economist Marijana Mitrović, assistant director Danijela Vukajlović Grba, assistant director Vesna Saveljić, chief of Real Sector Developments Analysis and Research Division Milica Vlahović, chief of Monetary Research and Statistics Division Svetlana Cerović, chief of Fiscal Analysis Division Boris Kilibarda, chief of Balance of Payments Division Tanja Radunović, senior analyst in Monetary Research and Statistics Division Lidija Ćirović Popadić Andrijana Vujović Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKI TRENDOVI 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 30 I Monetarna statistika 30 II Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 44 III Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 58 IV Platni promet 62 V Realni sektor 68 VI Fiskalni sektor 74 VII Međunarodne komparacije 79 VIII Metodologija 82 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 30 I Monetary Statistics 30 II Money Market and Capital Market 44 III International Economic Relations 58 IV Payment operations 62 V Real Sector Developments 68 VI Fiscal Developments 75 VII International Comparison 79 VIII Methodology 83 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Oktobar je karakterisala niska inflacija, pad industrijske proizvodnje, ali i bolji rezultati u drugim aktivnostima. Bankarski depoziti i krediti održivo rastu, a aktivna kamatna stopa opada. Likvidnost banaka je na visokom nivou. Budžetski bilans je pozitivan. Tekući račun je u deficitu postajući neodrživo visok. Uprkost tome neto strane direktne investicije rastu. Berzanski indeksi bilježe značajan pad. Kretanje cijena U oktobru su u odnosu na septembar, cijene na malo ostale na istom nivou. Rast cijena poljoprivrednih proizvoda (2,8%) i usluga (0,5%), kompezovan je padom cijena industrijskih proizvoda (-2,3%), roba (-0,1%) i nesezonskih proizvoda (-0,1%), tako da je mjesečni rast cijena na malo u oktobru iznosio 0,0%. U odnosu na kraj godine cijene na malo su u oktobru porasle za 1,7%, isto toliko (1,7%) iznosila je i godišnja stopa inflacije, što predstavlja najniži nivo godišnje inflacije u godini. Na godišnjem nivou, na rast cijena na malo najznačajnije je uticao rast cijena poljoprivrednih proizvoda (8,0%), usluga (2,0%), roba (1,6%), nesezonskih proizvoda (1,7%) i industrijskih proizvoda (1,2%). Grafik br. 1 - Cijene na malo Izvor: Monstat Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda niže su u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 0,4%. Pri tome su nepromijenjene ostale cijene sredstava rada i robe za ličnu potrošnju, dok je materijal za reprodukciju pojeftinio u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 0,6%. Na godišnjem nivou cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda više su za 4,1%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 8

9 Macroeconomic Developments October was characterized by low inflation, a decline in industrial production, but also better results in other activities. Bank deposits and loans are on a sustainable growth, but lending interest rate is on a downtrend. The fiscal balance is positive, the current account deficit is unsustainably high, but net direct investments are increasing. All stock exchange indices recorded remarkable falls. Prices Retail prices in October 2006 remained at the same level as in the previous month. The month-on-month increases in the prices of agricultural products and services of 2.8% and 0.5%, respectively, were offset by falls in the prices of industrial products (2.3%), goods (0.1%) and non-seasonal products (0.1%), resulting in the stagnation of retail prices in October. Compared to end-2005, retail prices rose by 1.7%, the same as the annual inflation, which is the lowest inflation rate recorded in 2006 so far. At the annual level, the increase in retail prices was primarily affected by price growths of agricultural products (8.0%), services (2.0%), goods (1.6%), non-seasonal products (1.7%), and industrial products (1.2%). Graph 1 - Retail prices Source: Monstat Producers` prices of manufactured goods fell by 0.4% in October in relation to the previous month, wherein the prices of capital goods and consumer goods remained the same, and the prices of intermediate goods fell by 0.6%. Observed at the annual level, producers` prices increase amounted to 4.1% in October. 9 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Grafik br. 2 - Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Industrijska proizvodnja Fizički obim industrijske proizvodnje za deset mjeseci ove godine porastao je za 0,9% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. U četrnaest industrijskih grana ostvaren je rast, dok su pad proizvodnje zabilježile sledeće industrijske grane: vađenje ruda metala, vađenje ostalih ruda i kamena, proizvodnja duvanskih proizvoda, proizvodnja celuloze i papira i prerada papira, proizvodnja hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda, proizvodnja proizvoda od gume i plastičnih masa, kao i proizvodnja ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava. U odnosu na prethodni mjesec ostvaren je pad industrijske proizvodnje od 8,5%, dok je u na godišnjem nivou pad industrijske proizvodnje iznosio 4,8%. Grafik br. 3 - Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Turizam Crnu Goru je za deset mjeseci godine posjetilo turista, što je za 15,3% više nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Od ukupnog broja turista koji su posjetili Crnu Goru, 39,3% su bili stranci, dok su turisti iz Crne Gore i Srbije činili 60,7%. Ostvareno je 5,8 miliona noćenja. U oktobru je zabilježena posjeta 28 hiljada turista koji su ostvarili 127 hiljada noćenja, što je 13,5% više posjeta i 19,3% više noćenja u odnosu na oktobar godine. U strukturi ukupnih turista koji su u oktobru posjetili Crnu Goru, zabilježeno je znatno veće učešće stranih turista (62,9%), nego domaćih (37,1%). Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 10

11 Graph 2 - Producer prices Source: Monstat Industrial Output The physical volume of industrial production in the reporting ten-month period was 0.9% higher in relation to the same period of Increases were recorded in 14 sectors, and there were falls in the following sectors: mining of metal ore, other mining and quarrying, the manufacturing of tobacco products, cellulose, paper and paper products, chemicals and chemical products, rubber and plastic products, and in the production of other means of transport. Compared to the previous month, industrial production recorded a fall of 8.5% in October this year, while the annual decline amounted to 4.8%. Graph 3 - Industrial output Source: Monstat Tourism The number of tourists who visited Montenegro in the first ten months of the current year totalled 923,392, being 15.3% higher than in the comparative period of Of this number, 39.3% were foreign tourists, and tourists from Montenegro and Serbia accounted for 60.7%. The recorded number of tourist overnights was 5.8 million. Tourist visits in October this year amounted to 28,000, recording 127,000 overnight stays. Compared to the same month in 2005, this is an increase of 13.5% and 19.3% tourist visits and overnights, respectively. The structure of tourists shows a much larger contribution of foreign tourists (62.9%) than domestic tourists (37.1%). 11 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Saobraćaj, šumarstvo i građevinarstvo U oblasti saobraćaja tokom prvih deset mjeseci ove godine zabilježeni su pozitivni rezultati. Manji obim ostvaren je kod prevoza putnika željeznicom, u gradskom saobraćaju i kod prevoza robe u vadušnom saobraćaju, dok je u ostalim oblastima saobraćajnih usluga ostvaren veći obim prometa. U periodu januar-oktobar proizvedeno je 278 hiljada m3 šumskih sortimenata, što predstavlja rast proizvodnje u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine od 18,9%. U odnosu na prethodni mjesec ove godine proizvodnja šumskih sortimenata je bilježila rast od 5,5%. Vrijednost izvršenih građevinskih radova u toku ove godine iznosila je 169 miliona eura, što u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine predstavlja rast od 288%. Posmatrano kroz efektivne časove rada, proizvodnja je u ovoj djelatnosti porasla za 100%. Novčana masa Monetarni agregat M21 iznosio je na kraju oktobra 1,32 milijarde eura, što predstavlja do sada najveći iznos ovog agregata. Mjesečni rast agregata M21 iznosio je 5,1%. U odnosu na kraj prethodne godine pomenuti agregat je porastao za 52,6%, dok je njegov godišnji rast iznosio 68,6%. Grafik br. 4 Monetarni agregat M21, u eura Izvor: CBCG Ukupna aktiva banaka Ukupna aktiva banaka u oktobru je iznosila 1,17 milijardi eura, što takođe predstavlja do sada najveću vrijednost. U odnosu na prethodni mjesec ukupna aktiva banaka je porasla za 6,4%. U odnosu na kraj prethodne godine rast ukupne aktive banaka iznosio je 68,6%, dok je godišnji rast iznosio 95,1%. Relativan rast u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, na strani aktive ostvarile su sledeće pozicije: novčana sredstva i depoziti kod depozitnih institucija (10,2%) i neto krediti (5,4%), dok je pad ostvaren na pozicijama: hartija od vrijednosti (-8,5%), ostale aktive (-0,4%) i rezervisanja za gubitke na ostale stavke aktive (-4,9%). U pasivi agregatnog bilansa relativni rast su bilježile sve pozicije: depoziti (5,6%), pozajmice (10,2%), ostale obaveze (42,1%) i ukupan kapital koji je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec porastao za 0,1%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 12

13 Transportation, Forestry, Construction Transportation recorded positive results in the reporting ten-month period. Higher transport volumes were recorded in all transportation services, except in public transport, passenger transport via railways, and air cargo. The manufacturing of wood products in the period January-October of the current year amounted to 278,000 m³, being 18.9% and 5.5% higher than in the comparative period of 2005 and September 2006, respectively. The value of performed construction work in the reporting period amounted to EUR 169 million, being 288% higher than in the same period last year. Observed through effective working hours, this increase is 100%. Broad money Broad money M21 amounted to EUR 1.32 billion, which represents the highest value ever recorded. Monthly increase in M21 amounted to 5.1%, increasing by 52.6% in comparison with year-end 2005, and its annual growth totalled 68.6%. Graph 4 - Broad money (M21), EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Total Assets and Liabilities of Banks Total assets of banks also reached their highest level in October this year, amounting to EUR 1.17 billion, which is an increase of 6.4% in relation to the previous month, a 68.6% growth in comparison with end-2005, and a 95.1% growth in relation to end-october Compared to September this year, relative growths on the assets side were recorded by monetary assets and deposits with depository institutions (10.2%) and net loans (5.4%), whereas falls were recorded in securities (8.5%), other assets (0.4%), and reserves for losses on other asset items (4.9%). The liabilities side of the aggregated balance recorded increases in all positions: deposits (5.6%), borrowings (10.2%), other liabilities (42.1%), and total capital (0.1%). 13 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Depoziti Ukupni depoziti su u oktobru u odnosu na prethodni mjesec povećani za 5,6% a u odnosu na kraj godine za 75,2%, i iznosili su 854,9 miliona eura. Godišnji rast depozita od 10-6,2% predstavlja najveću godišnju stopu rasta depozita u ovoj godini. Pad depozita, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zabilježen je kod: banaka (-16,1%), ostalih finansijskih institucija (-6,6%), privrednih društava u državnom vlasništvu (-4,7%), preduzetnika (-47,3%) i državnih fondova (-9,0%). Dok su ukupni depoziti nefinansijskih institucija i opšte vlade ostvarili rast, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, za 5,4%, depoziti neprofitnih organizacija za 2,3% i depoziti fizičkih lica za 8,8%. Ukupni depoziti i pozajmice banaka u oktobru su iznosili 1 milijardu eura, dok su ukupni krediti koje su banke odobrile klijentima iznosili 688,1 milion eura. Grafik br. 5 - Odobreni krediti, depoziti i pozajmice banaka, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Depoziti stanovništva Depoziti stanovništva su na kraju oktobra iznosili 382,8 miliona eura i bili su veći u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 8,8%. U odnosu na kraj godine depoziti su porasli 118%, dok je na godišnjem nivou rast iznosio 152,8%. Grafik br. 6- Depoziti stanovništva ročnost, u milionima eura Izvor: CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 14

15 Deposits Total deposits in banks amounted to EUR million at end-october 2006, being 5.6% and 75.2% higher than in the previous month and end-2005, respectively. The annual increase of 106.2% represents the highest annual rate of increase in deposits in In relation to the previous month, falls in October this year were recorded in deposits by banks and other financial institutions (of 16.1% and 6.6%, respectively), state-owned companies and entrepreneurs (of 4.7% and 47.3%, respectively), and deposits by government funds (9%). While total deposits by non-financial institutions and general government each recorded an increase of 5.4% in October this year, deposits by non-profit organisations and households rose by 2.3% and 8.8%, respectively. Total bank deposits and borrowings amounted to EUR 1 billion in October this year, and total loans disbursed by banks to their clients were EUR million. Graph 5 - Loans granted, deposits and bank borrowings, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Deposits by Households Deposits by households increased in October this year by 8.8% in comparison with the previous month, amounting to EUR million. In relation to end-2005, these deposits rose by 118%, and the annual increase amounted to 152.8%. Graph 6 - Deposits by households maturity, EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 Sa aspekta ročnosti, depoziti po viđenju su činili 57,2% ukupnih depozita stanovništva, dok se na oročene depozite odnosilo 42,8%. U strukturi oročenih depozita najveće učešće su imali depoziti oročeni do 3 mjeseca 9,3%, depoziti oročeni od 3 mjeseca do godinu dana 8,5%, depoziti oročeni od 1 do 3 godine 5,7%. Na depozite oročene preko 3 godine odnosilo svega 0,2% ukupno oročenih depozita. Krediti Na kraju oktobra iznos odobrenih kredita od strane crnogorskih banaka iznosio je 688 miliona eura. Ukupni krediti su porasli u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 5,4%, u odnosu na kraj prethodne godine porasli su za 83%, dok je njihov rast na godišnjem nivou iznosio 92,5%. Najviše kredita odobreno je privrednim društvima u privatnom vlasništvu 51,4%, a zatim domaćinstvima 36,5%. Privredi je odobreno 54,9% ukupno odobrenih kredita, tako da se na privredu i na kategoriju domaćinstava odnosi 91,4% ukupno odobrenih kredita. U ukupno odobrenim kreditima, značajno je bilo učešće i kredita odobrenih opštoj Vladi (5,4%). Grafik br. 7 - Ukupni krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Ukupni depoziti privrede na kraju oktobra iznosili su 264,3 miliona eura, dok je u istom periodu privredi odobreno kredita 377,8 miliona eura, tako da je privreda u ovom mjesecu bila neto dužnik sistema. Stanovništvo je deponovalo kod banaka sredstava u iznosu 382,8 milina eura, dok su banke datoj kategoriji odobrile u istom periodu, 250,8 miliona eura kredita, tako da su domaćinstva u posmatranom periodu predstavljala neto štedišu sistema. Tabela br. 1- Neto štednja stanovništva i privrede (u milionima eura) Izvor: CBCG Dec 2004 Oktobar 2005 Decembar 2005 Oktobar 2006 Neto štednja stanovništva 4,9 53,0 71,4 131,9 Neto štednja privrede -90,1-96,9-86,2-113,5 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 16

17 With regard to maturity, the share of demand deposits was 57.2% of total deposits by households, whereas time deposits accounted for the remaining 42.8%. In the structure of time deposits, the main contributors were deposits with an agreed maturity of up to 3 months, 9.3%, followed by an 8.5% share of deposits termed from 3 months to 1 year, and a 5.7% share of deposits termed from 1 to 3 years. Deposits with an agreed maturity of over 3 years accounted for a mere 0.2% of total time deposits. Loans The value of total loans disbursed by Montenegrin banks at end-october amounted to EUR 688 million, which is 5.4% and 83% more than in the previous month and at year-end 2005, respectively, whereas their annual increase totalled 92.5%. The main portion of total loans disbursed was of loans granted to private companies and households, 51.4% and 36.5%, respectively. Of total loans disbursed, those to the corporate sector made up 54.9%, so this sector and households accounted for 91.4% of total loans granted. The percentage of loans disbursed to general Government amounted to 5.4%. Graph 7 - Total loans and deposits, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Total deposits by the corporate sector amounted to EUR million at end-october 2006, whereas the value of loans disbursed to this sector totalled EUR million, thus making this sector a net debtor in the system. Households deposited the total of EUR million with banks, and the latter granted the total of EUR million worth of loans, which made households net depositors into the system over the reporting period. December 2004 October 2005 December 2005 October 2006 Net savings of households Net savings of corporate sector Table 1 Savings of households and corporate sector, EUR million Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Grafik br. 8 - Krediti privrede i stanovništva, u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG Likvidnost U prvih deset mjeseci godine bankarski sektor je karakterisala zadovoljavajuća likvidnost, o čemu govori znatno viši nivo raspoloživih likvidnih sredstava banaka u zemlji i inostranstvu od izvršenih plaćanja. Ukupna sredstva banaka raspoloživa za plaćanje kretala su se, u posmatranom periodu, u intervalu od 151 do 372 miliona eura i iznosila su prosječno 243,5 miliona eura, što je bilo dvostruko više iznad prosjeka ostvarenog u istom periodu godine (123 miliona eura). Izvršena plaćanja banaka su bila značajno niža od raspoloživih sredstava za plaćanje, i prosječno su iznosila 24,7 miliona eura tokom prvih osam mjeseci ove godine. U posmatranom periodu ostvaren je suficit u prosječnom iznosu od 218,8 miliona eura. Obavezna rezerva Ukupno izdvojena obavezna rezerva, na kraju oktobra iznosila je 134,3 miliona eura. Izdvojeno je 4,3% više obavezne rezerve, nego u prethodnom mjesecu, 117,8% više u odnosu na kraj godine, dok je na godišnjem nivou izdvojeno 140,9% više obavezne rezerve. Od ukupno izdvojenih sredstava na računima Centralne banke u inostranstvu bilo je izdvojeno 53,5%, na računu obavezne rezerve u zemlji izdvojeno je 43,9%, dok je u državnim zapisima izdvojeno 2,6%. Grafik br. 9 - Obavezna rezerva, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Izvor: CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 18

19 Graph 8 - Loans to the corporate sector and households, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro Liquidity In the first ten months of 2006, the liquidity of the banking sector was satisfactory, showing a much higher level of the available liquid assets in the country and abroad than effected payments. Namely, assets available for payments ranged from EUR 151 and 372 million in the reporting period, the average being EUR million, which is almost twofold more than the average recorded in the comparative period of 2005 (EUR 123 million). Banks` effected payments were constantly much below the assets available for payments, the average in the reporting period being EUR 24.7 million, and the average surplus of liquid assets over due payments amounted to EUR million. Reserve Requirements At end-october 2006, banks allocated a total of EUR million of reserve requirements, which is 4.3% and 117.8% more than in the previous month and at end-2005, respectively. Compared to end-october 2005, this is an increase of 140.9%. Of total reserve requirement, 53.5% was allocated to the Central Bank of Montenegro`s international account, 43.9% to the reserve requirement account in the country, and 2.6% was allocated in Treasury bills. Graph 9 - Reserve requirements at end-periods, EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije Bilansna suma MFI na kraju oktobra iznosila je 29,1 milion eura, dok su iste odobrile kredita u iznosu 27,6 miliona eura. Bilansna suma je zabilježila rast od 10,7% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok je u istom periodu iznos kredita uvećan za 8,8%. U odnosu na kraj godine bilansna suma MFI je porasla za 56,1%, dok su krediti porasli za 55,1%. Aktivne kamatne stope Prosječna ponderisana nominalna aktivna kamatna stopa (PPNS) bila je u oktobru niža u odnosu na prethodni mjesec za 0,12 procentnih poena, dok je prosječna ponderisana nominalna efektivna kamatna stopa (PPES) u istom periodu bilježila pad od 0,25 procentnih poena. Pri tome su aktivne kamatne stope na kredite odobrene pravnim licima bilježile pad u odnosu na prethodni mjesec: PPNS od -0,19 procentnih poena, PPES od -0,33 procentnih poena, dok su na kredite fizičkim licima bilježile pad: PPNS od -0,08 procentnih poena, PPES od -0,12 procentnih poena. Posmatrano po djelatnostima, značajno su se smanjile kamatne stope na kredite sledećim djelatnostima: energetici (PPES je niža za 1,41 procentni poen), administracija i druge javne usluge (PPES -1,35 procentnih poena) i trgovini (PPES -0,48 procentnih poena). Posmatrano po ključnim sektorima takođe je zabilježen pad i efektivnih i nominalnih kamatnih stopa, pri čemu je najveći pad stopa zabilježen kod kredita odobrenih državnom sektoru PPNKS (-0,32), PPEKS (-0,86), zatim kod kredita odobrenih stranom sektoru PPNKS (-0,13), PPEKS (-0,22), te kod kredita odobrenih privatnom sektoru PPNKS (-0,15), PPEKS (-0,18). Tržište novca Održana je jedna aukcija državnih zapisa sa rokom dospijeća 182 dana, na kojoj je emitovano i prodato zapisa u iznosu 200 hiljada eura. Tražnja za zapisima je premašila ponudu za 150%. Postignuta prosječno ponderisana kamatna stopa iznosila je 0,53%. Tržište kapitala Ukupan promet na berzama u oktobru je bio upola manji nego u septembru, i iznosio je 18,2 miliona eura, što procentualno predstavlja pad prometa od 52%. U strukturi ukupnog prometa, značajnije nego prethodnih mjeseci, je bilo učešće primarnog prometa (13%). Na promet akcijama kompanija odnosilo se 68,6%, promet akcijama privatizacionih fondova 24,7%, a svega 6,7% na promet raznim vrstama obveznica (državnim, opštinskim, restitucije). Takođe su i sva tri reperna indeksa berzi bilježila pad. Najveći pad u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zabilježio je indeks fondova na Nex berzi, NEX PIF (-15,7%), zatim Moste (-9,7%) i na kraju NEX20 (-6,8%). Nakon značajnog rasta svih indeksa u avgustu ove godine (NEX PIF 81,1%, MOSTE 36,9% i NEX 20 28,3%), usled enormnog rasta tražnje za akcijama, zabilježen je pad indeksa u septembru, dok je u okrobru je taj pad bio još izraženiji kao posljedica vraćanja cijena na ravnotežni nivo. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 20

21 Micro-Credit Financial Institutions (MFIs) Total assets of MFIs amounted to EUR 29.1 million, being 10.7% higher than in the previous month, whereas the value of loans these institutions disbursed to their clients was EUR 27.6 million, which is a monthly increase of 8.8%. Compared to year-end 2005, total MFIs assets and loans disbursed rose by 56.1% and 55.1%, respectively. Lending Rates The average weighted nominal lending interest rate (9.50%) and the corresponding effective interest rate (10.56%) declined in October this year in comparison with the previous month by 0.12 and 0.25 percentage points, respectively. The average weighted interest rates on loans granted to legal entities and households also fell in comparison with the previous month (legal entities - AWNI * by 0.19, and AWEI ** by 0.33, percentage points; households AWNI by 0.08, and AWEI by 0.12, percentage points). Observed by activities, a remarkable fall in interest rates in October in comparison with the previous month was recorded in the energy sector (AWEI fell by 1.21 percentage points), administration and other public services (AWEI fell by 1.35 percentage points), and trade (AWEI fell by 0.48 percentage points). Observed by key sectors, the largest fall in comparison with the previous month was recorded in interest rates on loans granted to the state sector (AWNI by 0.32, and AWEI by 0.86, percentage points), then on loans disbursed to the foreign sector (AWNI by 0.13, and AWEI by 0.22, percentage points), and loans to the private sector (AWNI by 0.15, and AWEI by 0.18, percentage points). Money Market Only one auction of 182-day maturing T-bills was held in October. The total value of issued and sold T-bills was EUR 200,000, but demand exceeded the offer by 150%. The achieved annual weighted interest rate at the auction amounted to 0.53%. Capital Market Total turnover on the Montenegrin stock exchanges in October this year was half the turnover achieved in the previous month, amounting to EUR 1.82 million, which is a 52% fall. In the structure of total turnover, a much larger share than in the previous months was of the primary trading, 13%. Companies` shares traded accounted for 68.6% of total turnover, followed by 24.7% trading with shares of privatisation funds, and only 6.7% trading with other types of securities (government, municipal, and restitution bonds). All of the three benchmark indices also fell. The severest fall in October, in comparison with the previous month, recorded the Nex Montenegro SE index NEX PIF, 15.7%, followed by the Montenegroberza SE index MOSTE which fell by 9.7%, and again the Nex Montenegro SE index NEX20 that declined by 6.8%. Namely, after the remarkable increase in the respective indices in August this year (NEX PIF by 81.1%, MOSTE by 36.9%, and NEX 20 by 28.3%) due to the artificially increased prices of securities, they declined drastically in September, * Average weighted nominal interest rate ** Average weighted effective interest rate 21 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 Grafik br Kretanje indeksa Moste Izvor: Montenegroberza Grafik br Kretanje indeksa NEX20 i NEXPIF Izvor: Nex Montenegro berza Platni bilans U prvom polugodištu registrovan je izuzetno visok deficit na tekućem računu platnog bilansa, što je najvećim dijelom rezultat pogoršanja salda u robnoj razmjeni sa inostranstvom. Prema preliminarnim podacima deficit na tekućem računu u periodu januar-jun godine iznosio je 286,4 miliona eura, što je za 82,6% više nego u istom periodu prethodne godine. Pokrivenost spoljnotrgovinskog deficita suficitom ostvarenim na ostalim podračunima tekućeg računa iznosila je 19%. Posmatrano kao procenat BDP, deficit tekućeg računa u posmatranom periodu godine iznosio je 37,9%. Grafik br Komponente tekućeg računa po kvartalima godine Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 22

23 but their fall later on in October was even more remarkable as a response to the balancing of the aforementioned prices. Graph 10 - MOSTE index Source: Montenegroberza stock exschange Graph 11 - NEX20 and NEXPIF indices Source: Nex Montenegro stock exschange Balance of Payments A remarkably high increase in the current account deficit was recorded in the first six months of 2006, which is mainly due to the deterioration in the foreign trade balance. According to preliminary data, the current account deficit in the period January June of the current year amounted to EUR million, which is 82.6% more than in the corresponding period of The coverage of the foreign trade deficit with the surpluses achieved in other current account sub-balances amounted to 19%. Observed as a percentage of GDP, the current account deficit in this period amounted to 37.9%, which is unsustainable. Graph 12 Current account components by quarters, Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 Deficit na računu robne razmjene u prvih šest mjeseci godine je iznosio 353,4 miliona eura (46,8% BDP), što je za 41,6% viši deficit u odnosu na isti period godine. Izvoz je porastao za 10,4% i iznosio je 260,7 miliona eura. Uvoz u prvih šest mjeseci godine je iznosio 614,1 miliona eura, što je za 26,4% više u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Pokrivenost robnog uvoza robnim izvozom je u prvih šest mjeseci godine iznosila 42,4% i bila je manja u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine kada je iznosila 48,6%. 1 Ukupni obim razmjene usluga u periodu januar jun godine iznosio je 212,3 miliona eura ili 52,9% više nego tokom prvih šest mjeseci godine. Prihodi od usluga u prvih šest mjeseci godine iznosili su 107,9 miliona eura i povećani su za 28,1 miliona eura ili 35,1% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Rashodi od usluga, istovremeno su iznosili 104,4 miliona eura i povećani su za 45,4 miliona eura ili 77% u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Osnovni razlog rasta jeste značajno povećanje rashoda po osnovu građevinskih usluga, što je posljedica povećanog angažovanja građevinskih firmi iz inostranstva za izvođenje investicionih radova. Saldo usluga za šest mjeseci u godini je iznosio 3,5 miliona eura. U poređenju sa prvih šest mjeseci godine, ove godine je ostvaren manji suficit na računu usluga za 17,3 miliona eura, i to zahvaljujući bržem rastu rashoda. Najveći suficit je ostvaren u oblasti putovanja i turizma 42,8 miliona eura, dok je najveći deficit ostvaren u oblasti građevinskih usluga. Saldo dohotka u periodu januar jun godine bio je pozitivan i iznosio je 9,3 miliona eura. Grafik br Pokrivenost robnog uvoza izvozom, , u % Izvor: CBCG i Monstat Grafik br Kvartalni uvoz i izvoz roba, , u 000 eura Izvor: CBCG i Monstat 1 Izvorni podaci MONSTAT-a su korigovani podacima koji se odnose na popravke na robi i robu koja prelazi granicu a ne carini se (metodološka korekcija). Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 24

25 A deficit in the sub-balance of goods amounted to EUR million (46.8% of GDP), which is 41.6% more than in the first six months of Exports increased by 10.4%, amounting to EUR million. Imports in the reporting period totalled EUR million, being 26.4% higher than in the comparative period last year. The visible imports/exports coverage amounted to 42.4%, being lower than in the same period last year when it amounted to 48.6%.1 The total volume of services trade in this period amounted to EUR million or 52.9% more than in the first six months of Income from services amounted to EUR million, increasing by EUR 28.1 million or 35.1% in relation to the corresponding period in 2005, and expenditure for services amounted to EUR million, being EUR 45.4 million or 77% higher. The main reason for the increased expenditure is an increase in the expenditure for construction services due to engaging foreign construction companies to perform investment work. The balance of services in this period amounted to EUR 3.5 million, but the surplus achieved was EUR 17.3 million lower than in the six-month period of 2005 due to a faster growth in service expenditure than service income. The largest surplus was achieved in transportation and tourism, EUR 42.8 million, and the largest deficit was recorded in construction services. The balance of income in the period January June 2006 was positive, amounting to EUR 9.3 million. Graph 13 Visible imports/exports coverage, , in % Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat Graph 14 Quarterly visible imports and exports, , EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro and Monstat 1 MONSTAT source data was corrected for data related to the items repaired goods and goods crossing the border but not being cleared (the methodological correction). 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 Na računu tekućih transfera za prvih šest mjeseci godine registrovan je suficit u iznosu od 54,2 miliona eura. Priliv portfolio investicija iznosio je 11,9 miliona, dok je odliv iznosio 8,3 miliona eura. Kod ostalih investicija priliv sredstava po osnovu zajmova iznosio je 168,5 miliona eura, dok je istovremeno odliv iznosio 67 miliona eura. Saldo Ostalih investicija u prvom polugodištu godine iznosio je 101,5 miliona eura. Strane direktne investicije U prvih devet mjeseci godine priliv po osnovu stranih direktnih investicija je iznosio 273,4 miliona eura, pri čemu se 270,7 milion eura odnosi na ulaganja nerezidenata u Crnu Goru, a 2,7 miliona eura na povlačenje direktnih investicija koje su rezidenti Crne Gore uložili u inostranstvo. Grafik br. 15 Priliv stranih direktnih investicija u 000 eura Izvor : CBCG Odliv po osnovu direktnih investicija, u istom periodu je iznosio 50,3 miliona eura od čega se 45,6 miliona eura odnosi na povlačenje uloženog kapitala u Crnu Goru od strane nerezidenata (36,8 miliona eura odnosi se na prodaju nepokretnosti, dok se 8,7 milion eura odnosi na povlačenje udjela stranog kapitala u domaćim preduzećima i bankama), a 4,7 miliona na ulaganja rezidenata u inostranstvo. Neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija za devet mjeseci godine iznosio je 223,1 miliona eura. Grafik br. 16 Struktura priliva SDI u periodu januar septembar 2006 CBCG Izvor : CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 26

27 The balance of current transfers recorded a surplus of EUR 54.2 million. The inflow of portfolio investments in the capital and financial account amounted to EUR 11.9 million, whereas their outflow was EUR 8.3 million. As for other investments, the inflow and outflow of funds arising from loans totalled EUR million and EUR 67 million, respectively. The balance of Other investments in the first six months of 2006 amounted to EUR million, indicating a raised indebtedness. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) The inflow of foreign direct investments into Montenegro in the first nine months of the current year amounted to EUR million, of which EUR million were investments by non-residents, and EUR 2.7 million the withdrawal of direct investments placed abroad by Montenegro residents. Graph 15 - FDI inflow, in EUR thousand Source: Central Bank of Montenegro At the same time, the direct investments outflow was EUR 50.3 million, of which EUR 45.6 million referred to the withdrawal of capital invested in Montenegro by non-residents (EUR 36.8 million refers to the sale of property, and EUR 8.7 million was the withdrawal of a part of the foreign capital in domestic companies and banks), and EUR 4.7 million were residents` investments abroad. The net FDI inflow in this period was EUR million. Graph 16 - Structure of FDI inflow, January September 2006 Source: Central Bank of Montenegro 27 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

28 Budžet U prvih deset mjeseci godine Budžet Republike Crne Gore je ostvario suficit u iznosu od 28,4 miliona eura 2. Suficit je rezultat dinamičnog rasta tekućih prihoda, posebno prihoda od poreza i naplaćenih naknada. Rastu prihoda od poreza doprinio je snažan priliv prihoda od poreza na dodatnu vrijednost, akciza i prihoda od poreze na međunarodnu trgovinu i transakcije (carine). Grafik br. 17 Budžetski suficit/deficit Izvor : Ministarstvo finansija RCG Međutim, ukoliko suficit posmatramo kao razliku izmedju ukupnih primitaka i izdataka, tada je suficit iznosio 4,0 miliona eura. 2 Suficit/Deficit kao razlika izmedju ukupnih primitaka umanjenih za pozajmice, donacije, transfere i primitke od prodaje imovine, a izdaci za otplatu glavnice po osnovu duga nastalog uzimanjem kredita i emitovanjem hartija od vrijednosti u zemlji i inostranstvu Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore 28

29 The Budget In the reporting ten-month period, the Budget of the Republic of Montenegro recorded a surplus of EUR 28.4 million. 2 The surplus is a result of increased current revenues, especially revenues from tax collections and reimbursements. The increase in tax revenues was mainly due to a remarkably increased inflow of VAT collection, excise duties, and tax on international trade and transactions (customs duties). Graph 17 Budgetary surplus/deficit Source : Montenegrin Ministry of Finance However, if we observe the surplus as the difference between total revenues and expenditure, then the surplus totalled EUR 4 million. 2 Surplus/Deficit as the difference between total revenues reduced for borrowings, donations, transfers and revenues from sale of property, and expenditure for principal repayment of debt arising from loans taken and securities issued in the country and abroad 29 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

30 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-periods, EUR thousand M0 Depoziti po viđenju* M1 Depoziti po viđenju** M11 Oročeni depoziti* M2 Oročeni depoziti** (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) *** *** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 389, , , , , ,964 1,044, ,328 1,109,771 July Avg 402, , , , , ,881 1,128, ,045 1,207,430 Aug Sep 402, , , , , ,808 1,170, ,150 1,259,861 Sep Okt 413, , , , , ,656 1,231, ,951 1,323,699 Oct (1+2) 4 5 (1+4) 6 7 (3+6) 8 9 (5+8) M0 Demand deposits* M1 Demand deposits** M11 Time deposits* M2 Time deposits** M21 M21 * Bez depozita Vlade RCG; ** Uključujući depozite Vlade RCG *** Stanje na ; Izvor: CBCG * Without Government deposits; ** Including Government deposits *** Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM Statistički bilten 30

31 Tabela Monetarni agregati (novčana masa), u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary aggregates (money supply) balance at end-months, EUR thousand M0 M1 M11 M2 M * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 389, , ,443 1,044,501 1,109,771 July Avg 402, , ,385 1,128,781 1,207,430 Aug Sep 402, , ,711 1,170,916 1,259,861 Sep Okt 413, , ,748 1,231,939 1,323,699 Oct * Stanje na ; Izvor: CBCG * Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM 31 Statistical Bulletin

32 Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review - Balance sheet of CBM balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SDR Strana valuta Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Ukupno Depoziti Ostale obaveze Ukupno Neto strana aktiva Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od ostalih Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja sektora Ukupno Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti Ukupno Po viđenju Oročeni Ukupno Ukupan kapital ) (8+9) 11 (7-10) (13-14) ( ) (19+20) (22+23) ** ** Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 0 14, ,770 20, , , ,885 48,732-46, ,473 12, ,587 38, ,197 2, ,191 29,183 July Aug 0 16, ,999 20, , , ,967 58,774-56, ,354 11, ,075 34, ,603 2, ,194 29,451 Aug Sep 2,893 6, ,126 19, , , ,889 69,370-67, ,844 12, ,160 27, ,107 2, ,190 29,839 Sep Okt 2,901 10, ,859 19, , , ,893 71,510-69, ,117 12, ,845 33, ,859 2, ,896 30,219 Oct Monetary gold and SDR holdings Foreign currency Deposits Securities other than shares 7 ( ) Loans Other claims Total Deposits (8+9) Other liabilities 11 (7-10) Total Net foreign assets Claims on banks Claims on central Government Liabilities to central Government 15 (13-14) 16 Net claims Claims on other sectors 17 ( ) Total Other items (net) (19+20) Net claims on central Government Banks deposits Deposits of other sectors Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* Reserve reqirement Other deposits Total Demand deposits Time deposits 24 (22+23) 25 Total Capital account * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Stanje na 31.XII 2005; Izvor: CBCG * The Central Bank of Montenegro cannot issue money; the EUR is the official means of payment in Montenegro ** Balance as at 31.XII 2005 Source: CBM Statistički bilten 32

33 Tabela Monetarni pregled - bilans banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Monetary review - Balance sheet of banks balance at end-periods, EUR thousand Strana valuta Depoziti Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Ukupno Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti ( ) Ostale obaveze Ukupno 11 ( ) Neto strana aktiva 12 (6-11) Potraživanja od CBCG Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od ostalih Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja 16 (14-15) sektora 17 Ukupno 18 ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obaveze prema Centralnoj banci Depoziti po viđenju Obaveze Depoziti ostalih sektora Oročeni depoziti * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Ukupno 23 (21+22) Ukupan kapital Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul 60,811 99, , ,158 99, , ,960-20, ,746 20,083 47,054-26, , ,011 11, , , , ,988 July Avg 54, , , , , , ,157 3, ,795 18,432 50,279-31, , ,166 t12, , , , ,972 Aug Sep 49, , , , , , ,828 3, ,890 18,061 51,334-33, , ,974 11, , , , ,035 Sep Okt 50, , , , , , ,738 13, ,242 15,651 55,905-40, , ,204-1, , , , ,215 Oct ( ) ( ) 12 (6-11) (14-15) ( ) (21+22) 24 Currency in vaults Deposits Securities other than sheres Loans Other claims Total Deposits Securities other than sheres Loans Other liabilities Total Net foreign assets Claims on Central Bank Claims on central Government Liabilities to central Governmetn Net claims Claims on other sectors Total Other items (net) Liabilities to the Central bank Demand depositsu Time deposits Total Capital account Net claims on central government Deposits of other sectors Claims on nonresident Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities * Stanje na Izvor: CBCG * Balance as at 31 XII 2005; Source: CBM 33 Statistical Bulletin