Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro

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1 Centralna banka Crne Gore Central Bank of Montenegro Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust 2012 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

2 IZDAVAČ: WEB ADRESA: Centralna banka Crne Gore Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog br Podgorica Telefon: Fax: SAVJET CENTRALNE BANKE: Dr Radoje Žugić, guverner Mr Milojica Dakić, viceguverner Dr Velibor Milošević, viceguverner Asim Telaćević Dr Milivoje Radović Dr Milorad Jovović Dr Srđa Božović PRIPREMA: Dr Nikola Fabris, glavni ekonomista i Sektor za istraživanja i statistiku GRAFIČKO UREĐIVANJE: Odjeljenje za publikacije Podaci objavljeni u ovom Biltenu su preliminarni i moguće su korekcije nakon dobijanja konačnih podataka. Molimo korisnike ove publikacije da prilikom korišćenja podataka iz izvještaja obavezno navedu izvor. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust ii

3 PUBLISHED BY: WEBSITE: CENTRAL BANK COUNCIL: Central Bank of Montenegro Bulevar Svetog Petra Cetinjskog Podgorica Telephone: Fax: Radoje Žugić, PhD, Governor Milojica Dakić, MSc, Vice-Governor Velibor Milošević, PhD, Vice-Governor Asim Telaćević Milivoje Radović, PhD Milorad Jovović, PhD Srđa Božović, PhD PREPARED BY: TRANSLATED BY: DESIGNED BY: Nikola Fabris, PhD, Chief Economist and Research and Statistics Department Translation Services Division Publications Division Data published in this Bulletin are preliminary and subject to revision as final data become available. Users of this publication are requested to make reference to the source of information whenever they use data from the Report. iii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

4 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore predstavlja mjesečnu publikaciju koju priprema Centralna banka Crne Gore. Bilten je pregled najvažnijih statističkih podataka koji predstavljaju dobru bazu za sadašnje i buduće analize kretanja u crnogorskom bankarstvu i privredi. Osnovni akcenat je na podacima čiji je izvor Centralna banka Crne Gore, vezanim za monetarna kretanja, bankarski sistem, platni bilans i platni promet u zemlji i inostranstvu. Takođe je napravljena statistička baza drugih makroekonomskih pokazatelja iz realnog i fiskalnog dijela, tržišta novca i tržišta kapitala, kao i neki uporedni podaci o zemljama koje su u procesu Evropskih integracija. Sadržajno se sastoji iz dva dijela: kratkog pregleda kretanja i statističkog pregleda. Na kraju su data metodološka objašnjenja tabela. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust iv

5 The Bulletin of Central bank of Montenegro is a monthly publication prepared by the Central Bank of Montenegro. Bulletin has been envisaged as an overview of the most important statistical data that represent a good base for current and future analyses of developments in the Montenegrin banking system and economy. The emphasis was put on data whose source is the Central Bank of Montenegro and which are related to monetary developments, banking developments, the balance of payments, and payment operations in the country and abroad. There is also a statistical base of other macroeconomic indicators in the real and the fiscal sphere, the money market and the capital market, as well as some comparative data on countries undergoing the European integration process. The content consists of two parts: a short overview of developments and a statistical overview. Methodological explanations of tables are given at the end of the document. v Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

6 Sadržaj MAKROEKONOMSKA KRETANJA 8 STATISTIČKI BILTEN 30 I Monetarna statistika 30 II Statistika kamatnih stopa 42 III Tržište novca i tržište kapitala 66 IV Ekonomski odnosi sa inostranstvom 79 V Platni promet 84 VI Realni sektor 90 VII Fiskalni sektor 95 VIII Međunarodne komparacije 99 IX Metodologija 102 Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust vi

7 Contents MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 9 STATISTICAL BULLETIN 30 I Monetary Statistics 30 II Interest Rates Statistics 43 III Money Market and Capital Market 66 IV International Economic Relations 84 V Payment operations 90 VI Real Sector Developments 95 VII Fiscal Developments 76 VIII International Comparison 99 IX Methodology 103 vii Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

8 Makroekonomska kretanja Inflacija je u porastu. Rast aktivnosti u odnosu na prethodni mjesec je registrovan u industriji, šumarstvu, turizmu i pojedinim vidovima saobraćaja. U porastu je bilansna suma bankarskog sistema, kao i depoziti i likvidna sredstva, dok je registrovan manji pad kreditne aktivnosti. Strane direktne investicije su u porastu, ali su nešto niže u odnosu na isti period prethodne. Kretanje cijena Potrošačke cijene su u julu 2012., u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zabilježile rast od 0,2%. Najveći rast cijena je zabilježen u grupi hoteli i restorani (3,9%), najviše zbog rasta cijena usluga smještaja od 11,3%, kao i grupi komunikacije (3,8%) zbog povećanja cijena telefonskih i telegrafskih usluga za 4,2%. Rast je zabilježen i u grupi stanovanje, voda, struja, gas i druga goriva (1,1%), ostali proizvodi i usluge (0,9%), prevoz (0,5%), zdravlje (0,3%), rekreacija i kultura (0,2%), dok je rast cijena od po 0,1% ostvaren u grupama odjeća i obuća i pokućstvo i rutinsko održavanje stana. Mjesečni pad cijena zabilježen je u grupi hrana i bezalkoholna pića od 1,1%, najviše zbog smanjenja cijena povrća za 11,3%, voća za 5,3% i mlijeka, sira i jaja za 0,8%. Cijene grupa alkoholna pića i duvan i obrazovanje ostale su nepromijenjene u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Godišnja inflacija u julu 2012., mjerena potrošačkim cijenama, iznosila je 4,4%, dok je prosječna inflacija (prvih sedam mjeseci ove u odnosu na isti period prethodne) iznosila 3,7%. Grafik br. 1 Potrošačke cijene Izvor: Monstat Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

9 Macroeconomic environment Inflation shows an upward trend. Monthly uptrend was recorded in industry, forestry, tourism and some segments of transport. Banks' total assets and liabilities as well as deposits and liquid assets trended up, while lending activity recorded a slight decline. Foreign direct investments are increasing, yet showing a slight y-o-y decline. Prices Consumer prices recorded monthly growth of 0.2% in July The highest increase was recorded in hotels and restaurants (3.9%), mostly resulting from the growth in prices of accommodation services of 11.3%, as well as in group communication (3.8%) due to higher prices of phone and telegraph services by 4.2%. Growth was also recorded in dwelling, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (1.1%), other products and services (0.9%), transport (0.5%), health (0.3%), culture and entertainment (0.2%), while clothing and footwear and housing and routine maintenance each recorded a 0.1% increase. Monthly decline of 1.1% was recorded in food and non-alcoholic beverages, mostly due to the lower prices of vegetables, fruit and milk, cheese and eggs by 11.3%, 5.3%, and 0.8%, respectively. Prices in the categories: alcoholic beverages and tobacco and education remained unchanged in relation to the previous month. Annual CPI inflation in July 2012 amounted to 4.4% and the average inflation (first seven months of 2012 related to the same period of 2011) amounted to 3.7%. Graph 1 - Consumer prices Source: Monstat 9 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

10 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda su u julu ostale nepromijenjene u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zbog istih cijena u sva tri sektora. Na godišnjem nivou, cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda zabilježile su rast od 0,9%, najviše zbog rasta cijena u prerađivačkoj industriji za 1,4% i cijena snabdijevanja električnom energijom, gasom i parom za 0,4%. Cijene vađenja ruda i kamena na godišnjem nivou niže su za 2%. Grafik br. 2 Cijene proizvođača industrijskih proizvoda Izvor: Monstat Industrijska proizvodnja Industrijska proizvodnja je, u julu 2012., zabilježila rast od 29,1% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zbog mjesečnog rasta proizvodnje u sva tri sektora: sektoru snabdijevanje električnom energijom gasom i parom od 102,7%, sektoru vađenje ruda i kamena od 127,2% i sektoru prerađivačke industrije od 2,6%. U prvih sedam mjeseci ove u odnosu na isti period prethodne zabilježen je pad industrijske proizvodnje od 6,7%. Pad je ostvaren u sektoru snabdijevanje električnom energijom gasom i parom od 17,4% i sektoru vađenja ruda i kamena od 23,3%, dok je rast proizvodnje od 1,3% zabilježen u sektoru prerađivačke industrije. U prerađivačkoj industriji, u uporednom periodu, četiri oblasti bilježe rast proizvodnje i to: proizvodnja pića 1,6%, proizvodnja duvanskih proizvoda 42,6%, proizvodnja osnovnih farmaceutskih proizvoda i preparata 47,1% i proizvodnja mašina i opreme na drugom mjestu nepomenute 11,1%. Najveći pad je zabilježen u oblasti proizvodnje papira i proizvoda od papira za 47,3%, dok je najmanji pad od 1,5% zabilježen u oblasti proizvodnje hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

11 Producers` prices of manufactured products The producers` prices of manufactured products in July 2012 remained unchanged in relation to the previous month, since there were no changes in prices of all three sectors. Producers prices of manufacturing products recorded annual increase of 0.9%, mostly due to the growth of prices in manufacturing industry of and those of electricity, gas and steam supply of 1.4% and 0.4%, respectively. Prices of mining and quarrying recorded y-o-y decrease of 2%. Graph 2 Producers` prices of manufactured products Source: Monstat Industrial output Industrial output registered monthly growth in July this of 29.1% as a result of the monthly growth in all three sectors: the electricity, gas and steam supply sector (102.7%), mining and quarrying sector (127.2%) and manufacturing of 2.6%. The period-on-period comparison shows that total industrial output decreased by 6.7% in the first seven months of Decline of 17.4% was recorded in the electricity, gas and steam supply sector and mining and quarrying sector (23.3%), while the manufacturing industry sector output recorded the growth of 1.3%. In the comparing period, the following four sectors of manufacturing industry recorded increase: beverage production (1.6%), production of tobacco (42.6%), production of basic pharmaceutical products and medications (47.1%) and production of machines and equipment otherwise unmentioned (11.1%). The most significant decline of 47.3% was recorded in the production of paper and products thereof, while the production of chemicals and products thereof recorded the lowest decline of 1.5%. 11 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

12 Grafik br. 3 Industrijska proizvodnja Izvor: Monstat Saobraćaj i šumarstvo U željezničkom saobraćaju, u prvih sedam mjeseci ove prevezeno je 13,7% putnika manje, u vazdušnom je broj prevezenih putnika veći za 8%, dok je u drumskom saobraćaju prevezeno 35% više putnika u odnosu na isti period prethodne. U prvih sedam mjeseci, u željezničkom saobraćaju, prevoz robe je smanjen za 43,2% (mjereno tonskim kilometrima), u drumskom saobraćaju za 34,4% (mjereno tonskim kilometrima), dok je u vazdušnom saobraćaju prevoz robe smanjen za 39,8% u odnosu na isti period prethodne. Ukupni promet u lukama, za prvih sedam mjeseci, iznosio je 828,7 hiljada tona i bio je manji za 20,5% u poređenju sa prometom iz istog perioda prethodne, pri čemu je izvoz smanjen za 51%, a uvoz povećan za 26,1%. U šumarstvu u julu 2012, proizvedeno je m 3 šumskih sortimenata, što je za 40,7% više nego u junu, a za 9,7% više nego u julu U prvih sedam mjeseci ove proizvedeno je m 3 šumskih sortimenata, što je za 33,7% 1 manje nego u istom periodu prethodne. Turizam Crnu Goru je, prema evidenciji Monstata, u prvih sedam mjeseci posjetilo 677,4 hiljade turista, što predstavlja rast od 4,6% u odnosu na isti period prethodne. Ostvareno je 4.054,2 hiljade noćenja, što je za 6,1% više nego u istom periodu prethodne. Strani turisti su ostvarili 89% ukupno realizovanih noćenja. Tržište rada U julu je, prema evidenciji Monstata, bilo zaposleno 173,1 hiljada lica, što je za 6,5% više u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, a 1,5% više u odnosu na jul Značajan pad zbog nemogućnosti sječe usljed vremenskih nepogoda u februaru Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

13 Graph 3 Industrial output Source: Monstat Transportation and Forestry Y-o-y comparison shows that in the first seven months of 2012, railway passenger transport recorded a 13.7% decrease, while air passenger transport and road passenger transport recorded 8% and 35% increase, respectively. In the first seven months, railway cargo transport and road cargo transport recorded a y- o-y decline of 43.2% and 34.4% (measured in tonne kilometres), respectively, while air cargo transport recorded a y-o-y decline of 39.8%. In the first seven months of 2012, total turnover in ports amounted to thousand tones, showing a y-o-y decrease of 20.5%, whereby export declined by 51% and import increased by 26.1%. Some 35,096 m 3 of wood products were produced in July 2012 which is a monthly increase of 40.7% as well as a y-o-y growth of 9.7%. Thus, 86,065 m 3 wood products were produced in the first seven months of 2012, which is a y-o-y decrease of 33.7% 1. Tourism According to Monstat records, some thousand of tourists visited Montenegro in the first seven months of 2012, which is an increase of 4.6% compared to the same period of the previous. Tourist nights amounted to 4,054.2 thousand, which is a y-o-y increase of 6.1%. Foreign tourists accounted for 89% of total tourist nights. Labour market Monstat records show that thousand people were employed in July 2012, showing a 6.5% monthly increase and a y-o-y increase of 1.5%. The highest number of persons was employed in: retail and wholesale trade, repairs of motor vehicles and motorcycles (22.5%), public administration and defence, compulsory so- 1 A significant decline which was the result from impossibility of cutting due to the natural disasters in February Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

14 Najveći broj lica zaposlen je u sljedećim djelatnostima: trgovini na veliko i malo, popravka motornih vozila i motocikala (22,5%), državnoj upravi i odbrana, obavezno socijalno osiguranje (11,4%), usluge smještaja i ishrane (9,7%), prerađivačkoj industriji (7,5%), obrazovanju (7,4%), zdravstvena i socijalna zaštita (6,3%), saobraćaj i skladištenje (5,6%). Grafik br. 4 Struktura zaposlenih po sektorima, jul 2012., u % Izvor: Monstat Broj nezaposlenih lica je u julu u odnosu na prethodni mjesec manji za 2,5%, a u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne za 1,5%. Bruto i neto plate su u julu 2012., u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, zabilježile rast od 0,7% odnosno 0,6%. Prosječna realna zarada, bez poreza i doprinosa, je u julu zabilježila pad od 1% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec. Ukupna aktiva i pasiva banaka Bilansna suma banaka je iznosila 2.831,9 miliona eura na kraju jula i viša je za 1,8% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok je u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne niža za 2,3%. U strukturi aktive bilansa banaka, najveće učešće ostvarili su neto krediti (64,6%) i novčana sredstva i depoziti kod depozitnih institucija (23,7%), dok se preostalih 11,7% odnosilo na preostale stavke aktive. U strukturi pasive, dominantno učešće su ostvarili depoziti (67,7%) i pozajmice (17,2%), dok se na ukupan kapital odnosilo 9,7%, a ostale stavke 5,4% ukupne pasive. Ukupan kapital banaka je iznosio 275,8 miliona eura na kraju jula i bilježi pad od 5,4% na mjesečnom i 8,5% na godišnjem nivou. Depoziti Ukupni depoziti banaka su iznosili 1.916,6 miliona eura na kraju jula, što je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec više za 4,0%, a u odnosu na jul za 4,2%. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

15 cial insurance (11.4%), accommodation and nutrition services (9.7%), manufacturing industry (7.5%), education (7.4%), health care and social welfare (6.3%) and transport and warehousing (5.6%). Graph 4 Employment structure by sectors, July 2012 Source: Monstat Monthly decrease in unemployment amounted to 2.5% in July 2012, and y-o-y decline amounted to 1.5%. Monthly increase in July 2012 in both gross and net salaries amounted to 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively. In July 2012, average real salary without taxes and contributions recorded a monthly decrease of 1%. assets and liabilities of banks At end-july 2012, total assets and liabilities of banks amounted to some EUR 2,831.9 million, which is 1.8% more than in the previous month, yet 2.3% lower in relation to July In the structure of banks assets, net loans accounted for the main share of 64.6%, followed by cash and deposits with depository institutions with 23.7%, while other banks assets items accounted for the remaining 11.7%. As for the structure of banks` liabilities, deposits accounted for the main share of 67.7%, followed by borrowings with 17.2% and total banks capital with 9.7%, whereas the remaining 5.4% referred to other banks liabilities items. At end-july 2012, total capital of banks amounted to EUR million recording monthly and annual declines of 5.4% and 8.5%, respectively. Deposits banks deposits amounted to EUR 1,916.6 million at end-july 2012 and they recorded a monthly increase of 4.0% and a y-o-y increase of 4.2%. 15 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

16 U ročnoj strukturi ukupnih depozita, oročeni depoziti su činili 59,1%, dok su depoziti po viđenju činili 40,9% ukupnih depozita. U strukturi oročenih depozita, najveće učešće imali su depoziti ročnosti od tri mjeseca do jedne (50,4%) i depoziti ročnosti do tri mjeseca (23,9%). Tabela br. 1 - Ročna struktura depozita, kraj perioda, % VII XII VII Depoziti po viđenju 40,0 39,0 40,9 Oročeni depoziti 60,0 61,0 59,1 do tri mjeseca 13,1 12,6 14,2 od tri mjeseca do jedne 33,3 33,5 29,8 od jedne do tri 10,4 11,6 12,2 preko tri 3,2 3,3 3,0 Posmatrano po sektorima, u ukupnim depozitima dominirali su depoziti fizičkih lica sa 56,7% učešća. Tabela br. 2 - Sektorska struktura depozita, kraj perioda VII XII VII VII XII VII u 000 EUR u % Finansijske institucije ,3 4,7 3,4 Nefinansijske institucije ,6 29,3 31,0 Opšta vlada (Vlada, fondovi, opštine) ,6 4,5 4,4 Fizička lica ,6 56,9 56,7 Neprofitne organizacije ,2 1,3 1,4 Ostalo ,7 3,3 3,2 UKUPNO ,0 100,0 100,0 Depoziti stanovništva Depoziti stanovništva su na kraju jula iznosili 1.086,6 miliona eura i viši su za 3,3% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, dok su u odnosu na jul prethodne viši za 8,1%. U ročnoj strukturi depozita stanovništva, oročeni depoziti su činili 68,6%, dok su depoziti po viđenju učestvovali sa 31,4%. Grafik br. 5 Depoziti stanovništva po ročnosti, u eura Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

17 In total deposits maturity structure, time deposits accounted for 59.1%, while demand deposits accounted for 40.9% of total deposits. In the structure of time deposits, the highest share was recorded by deposits with maturity from three months to one (50.4%) and deposits with maturity from up to three months (23.9%). JULY 2011 XII 2011 JULY 2012 Demand deposits Time deposits Up to 3 months From 3 months to From 1 to 3 s Over 3 s Table 1 - Deposits maturity structure by sectors, period end, in % Observed by sectors, households deposits still account for the main share of total deposits with 56.7%. JULY DECEMBER JULY JULY DECEMBER JULY in EUR 000 in % Financial institutions 96,622 85,025 64, Non-financial institutions 543, , , General Government (Government, funds, 103,310 81,807 85, municipalities) Natural persons 1,004,952 1,033,453 1,086, Non-profit organizations 22,593 23,417 26, Other 68,156 60,369 60, TOTAL 1,839,152 1,817,060 1,916, Table 2 - Deposits structure by sectors, period-end Household deposits households deposits amounted to EUR 1,086.6 million at end-july 2012, and they recorded monthly growth of 3.3%, as well as y-o-y growth of 8.1%. In household deposits' maturity structure, time deposits accounted for 68.6%, while demand deposits accounted for 31.4%. Graph 5 Household deposits by maturity, in million EUR 17 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

18 Krediti Ukupni krediti banaka su iznosili 1.950,1 miliona eura na kraju jula, što je za 0,4% niže u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, odnosno za 4,2% niže u odnosu na jul prethodne. Koeficijent krediti/depoziti iznosio je 1,02% na kraju jula. Grafik br. 6 Ukupni krediti i depoziti, u 000 eura Odnos kredita i depozita uvećanih za ukupno uzete pozajmice iznosio je 0,81 na kraju jula i nije bitnije promijenjen ni na mjesečnom ni na godišnjem nivou. Grafik br. 7 Ukupni krediti, depoziti i pozajmice banaka, u 000 eura Krediti odobreni privredi i stanovništvu dominantna su kategorija u strukturi ukupnih kredita banaka sa 90,6% učešća, dok se preostalih 9,4% odnosilo na kredite odobrene finansijskim institucijama, organizacijama u javnom vlasništvu, inostranim firmama, Opštoj vladi i neprofitnim organizacijama. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

19 Loans At end-july 2012, total banking loans amounted to EUR 1,950.1 million, recording a monthly decline of 0.4% and a y-o-y decline of 4.2%. The loans to deposits ratio amounted to 1.02% at end-july Graph 6 loans and deposits, in thousand EUR Loans to deposits increased by total borrowings ratio amounted to 0.81, recording no significant monthly or y-o-y change. Graph 7 - loans, banks deposits and borrowings, in thousand EUR Loans extended to the corporate and household sectors accounted for the main share of 90.6%, while the remaining 9.4% were loans granted to financial institutions, public organisations, foreign companies, General Government, and non-profit organisations. 19 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

20 Grafik br. 8 Krediti stanovništvu, privredi i ukupni krediti banaka, u 000 eura Likvidnost banaka Prosječna likvidna sredstva banaka su u julu iznosila 372,0 miliona eura i bila su za 34,8 milion eura ili 10,3% viša nego u prethodnom mjesecu, prije svega zbog uticaja turističke sezone. U julu su koeficijenti likvidnost za bankarski sistem u cjelini, na dnevnom i dekadnom nivou bili iznad propisanih minimuma. Obavezna rezerva izdvojena obavezna rezerva banaka kod CBCG iznosila je 178,9 miliona eura na kraju jula, što je bilo više za 3,4% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, odnosno za 12,6% u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne. Od iznosa ukupno izdvojene obavezne rezerve, na računu obavezne rezerve u zemlji izdvojeno je 45,8%, u državnim zapisima 32,8%, a na računu Centralne banke u inostranstvu 21,4%. U julu su sve banke iskoristile mogućnost izdvajanja dijela obavezne rezerve u obliku državnih zapisa. Tako su ukupno izdvojena sredstva u obliku državnih zapisa iznosila 58,7 miliona eura na kraju jula Grafik br. 9 Izdvojena obavezna rezerva, u 000 eura Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

21 Graph 8 - Loans to households, corporate sector and total banks loans, in thousand EUR Banks Liquidity Average liquid assets of banks amounted to EUR million in July 2012, showing a monthly increase of EUR 34.8 million or 10.3%, primarily resulting from tourist season effects. Liquidity ratios, both daily and ten-day, were above the prescribe minimum for the entire banking system. Reserve requirement allocated reserve requirements of banks deposited with the Central Bank of Montenegro amounted to EUR million at end-july The allocated amount recorded the monthly and y-o-y increase of 3.4%, and 12.6%, respectively. Of total reserve requirements, 45.8% was allocated to the reserve requirement account in the country, 32.8% were in T-bills, and the remaining 21.4% to the Central Bank accounts held abroad. In July 2012, all banks used the opportunity to allocate a part of their reserve requirements in the form of T-bills. Thus, total allocated assets in the form T-bills amounted to EUR 58.7 million at end-july Graph 9 Reserve requirement, in thousand EUR 21 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

22 Efektivna stopa obavezne rezerve, mjerena odnosom izdvojene obavezne rezerve i ukupnih depozita iznosila je 9,3% na kraju jula ove, dok je u istom mjesecu prethodne iznosila 8,68%. Mikrokreditne finansijske institucije (MFI) Ukupna aktiva mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija iznosila je 36,3 miliona eura na kraju jula i bila je za 1,9% niža u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, odnosno za 24,2% u odnosu na jul Na kraju jula ove, krediti MFI su iznosili 31,3 miliona eura i bili su niži za 3,2% na mjesečnom nivou, odnosno za 12,5% na godišnjem nivou. Aktivne kamatne stope Kamatne stope banaka na ukupno odobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa banaka na ukupno odobrene kredite je u julu iznosila 8,87%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 9,54%. Na mjesečnom nivou nominalna kamatna stopa je zabilježile pad od 0,02 p.p, dok je efektivna kamatna stopa povećana za 0,01 p.p. Kamatne stope banaka na novoodobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa banaka na novoodobrene kredite je u julu iznosila 9,37%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 11,16%. Na mjesečnom nivou kamatne stope zabilježile su rast od 0,14 p.p i 0,75 p.p, respektivno. Kamatne stope mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na ukupno odobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na ukupno odobrene kredite je u julu iznosila 19,53%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 28,69%. Na mjesečnom nivou nominalna kamatna stopa zabilježila je pad od 0,05 p.p, a efektivna kamatna stopa pad od 0,11 p.p. Kamatne stope mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na novoodobrene kredite Prosječna ponderisana nominalna kamatna stopa mikrokreditnih finansijskih institucija na novoodobrene kredite je u julu iznosila 20,40%, dok je prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa iznosila 29,75%. Na mjesečnom nivou kamatne stope zabilježile su rast od 0,51 p.p i 0,06 p.p, respektivno. Pasivne kamatne stope Pasivna prosječna ponderisana efektivna kamatna stopa (PPPEKS) iznosila je 2,94% u julu i u odnosu na prethodni mjesec niža je za 0,1 procentni poen, a u odnosu na isti mjesec prethodne za 0,2 procentna poena. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

23 The effective reserve requirement rate, measured as the ratio of allocated reserve requirement to total deposits, amounted to 9.3% in July 2012, while it amounted to 8.68% in June Micro-credit financial institutions (MFIs) assets of MFIs amounted to EUR 36.3 million at end-july, showing 1.9% monthly decline and a y-o-y decline of 24.2%. In July 2012, total MFI loans amounted to EUR 31.3 million, recording monthly decrease of 3.2% and a y-o-y decrease of 12.5%. Lending Interest Rates Lending interest rates on total loans granted In July 2012, the weighted average nominal lending interest rate (WALNIR) on total loans granted amounted to 8.87% and weighted average lending effective interest rate (WALEIR) amounted to 9.54%. Nominal interest rate recorded a monthly decline of 0.02 percentage points, while effective interest rate increased by 0.01 percentage points. Lending interest rates on newly granted loans In July 2012, the weighted average nominal lending interest rate (WALNIR) on newly granted loans amounted to 9.37% and weighted average lending effective interest rate (WALEIR) amounted to 11.16%. Interest rates recorded respective monthly growth of 0.14 pp. and 0.75 pp. MFIs lending interest rates on total loans granted In July 2012, the weighted average nominal lending interest rate (WALNIR) on total loans granted amounted to 19.53% and weighted average lending effective interest rate (WALEIR) amounted to 28.69%. Nominal interest rate recorded a monthly decline of 0.05 percentage points, while effective interest rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points. MFIs lending interest rates on newly granted loans In July 2012, the weighted average nominal lending interest rate (WALNIR) on newly granted loans amounted to 20.40% and weighted average lending effective interest rate (WALEIR) amounted to 29.75%. Interest rates recorded respective monthly growth of 0.51 pp. and 0.06 pp. Deposit interest rates The weighted average deposit effective interest rate (WADEIR) amounted to 2.94% in July 2012, recording the month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points and the -on decline of 0.2 percentage points. WADEIR on deposits of natural persons amounted to 3.39%, recording a monthly decline of 0.04 pp. At the same time, WADEIR on deposits of legal persons amounted to 2.34%, recording monthly decrease of 0.18 percentage points. 23 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

24 PPEKS na depozite fizičkih lica iznosila je 3,39%, i na mjesečnom nivou je niža za 0,04 p.p. Istovremeno, PPEKS na depozite pravnih lica iznosila je 2,34% i na mjesečnom nivou bilježi pad od 0,18 procentnih poena. Tabela br. 3 - PPEKS na depozite banaka po ročnosti, u % Ročnost VII Depoziti po viđenju 0,27 Oročeni depoziti Do 3 mjeseca 4,55 Od 3 mjeseca do 1 4,75 Od 1 do 3 5,36 Od 3 do 5 godina 3,85 Preko 5 godina 3,53 Razlika između aktivnih (na ukupno odobrene kredite) i pasivnih kamatnih stopa u julu je iznosila 6,60 p.p. i povećana je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec (6,49 p.p). Tržište kapitala U julu na Montenegroberzi ostvaren je promet u vrijednosti od 2,4 miliona eura, što je za 64,3% viši nego u prethodnom mjesecu. U strukturi trgovine ostvarenoj u julu dominantno učešće je ostvario promet akcijama kompanija (56,7%), zatim akcijama fondova zajedničkog ulaganja (41,0%), dok se na promet raznim vrstama obveznica odnosilo 2,3%. Cjelokupan mjesečni promet ostvaren je kroz sekundarnu trgovinu. Na kraju jula 2012., vrijednost indeksa Monex 20 iznosila je 8.280,11, a vrijednost indeksa Monex PIF 3.419,80. Indeks Monex PIF je, u odnosu na prethodni mjesec zabilježio rast od 6,0%, dok je indeks Monex 20 zabilježio pad od 6,1%. Oba berzanska indeksa su zabilježila pad na godišnjem nivou: Monex 20 za 26,3% i Monex PIF za 38,1%. Grafik br. 10 Kretanje indeksa MONEX 20 i MONEX PIF Tržišna kapitalizacija na dan iznosila je 2,7 milijardi eura i na nivou je iz prethodnog mjeseca. Koeficijent obrta sredstava na Montenegroberzi je u julu tekuće iznosio 0,000871, i viši je u odnosu na prethodni mjesec kada je iznosio 0, Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

25 Maturity JULY 2012 Demand deposits 0.27 Time deposits Up to 3 months 4.55 From 3 months to From 1 to 3 s 5.36 From 3 to 5 s 3.85 Over 5 s 3.53 Table 3 WADEIR on banking deposits by maturity, in % In July 2012, the difference between lending interest rates (to total granted loans) and deposit interest rates amounted to 6.60 percentage points, recording an increase in relation to the previous month (6.49 percentage points). Capital market Montenegro Stock Exchange recorded turnover in the amount of EUR 2.4 million in July 2012, showing a monthly increase of 64.3%. As for the trade structure in July 2012, turnover of company shares accounted for the main share of 56.7% followed by the turnover of joint investment funds shares (41.0%), while the share of various types of bonds accounted for 2.3% of total turnover. The entire monthly turnover was recorded through secondary trade. At end-july 2012, the value of the Monex 20 index was 8, and that of the Monex PIF was 3,419.80, whereby Monex PIF recorded a monthly growth of 6.0%, while Monex 20 recorded monthly decline of 6.1%. Both indices recorded the -on- declines of respective 26.3% and 38.1%. Graph 10 MONEX and MONEX PIF indices movements As at 31 July 2012, market capitalization amounted to EUR 2.7 billion, remaining at the previous month level. The turnover coefficient at the Montenegro stock exchange amounted to in July 2012, showing a monthly increase ( in June). 25 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

26 Grafik br. 11 Koeficijent obrta sredstava Domaći platni promet Vrijednost realizovanog platnog prometa u zemlji iznosila je 2.147,0 miliona eura u julu 2012., što je bilo više za 17,8% u odnosu na prethodni mjesec, odnosno za 5,1% u odnosu na jul prethodne. U strukturi ukupno realizovanog platnog prometa, 55,6% se odnosilo na interni platni promet. Posmatrano prema učešću realizovanih naloga, dominantno učešće od 67,7% ostvario je interni platni promet, sa 1.527,4 hiljade realizovanih naloga. Strane direktne investicije U periodu januar-jul 2012., prema preliminarnim podacima, neto priliv SDI iznosio 203,8 miliona eura, što je za 10,5% manje u poređenju sa istim periodom prethodne. U periodu januar-jul evidentan je trend rasta priliva SDI na mjesečnom nivou od početka, kao i povećanje ulaganja u nekretnine za 40% u poređenju sa prethodnom godinom. Najveći dio ulaganja je imao karakter vlasničkih ulaganja. Ukupan priliv stranih direktnih investicija u posmatranom periodu iznosio je 274,2 miliona eura, dok je istovremeno ostvaren odliv u vrijednosti od 70,4 miliona eura. Grafik br. 12 Neto priliv stranih direktnih investicija, u hiljadama eura Izvor: CBCG Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

27 Graph 11 - Turnover coefficient Domestic payment transactions The value of the domestic payment transactions amounted to EUR 2,147.0 million in July 2012, and they recorded monthly increase of 17.8% and a y-o-y increase of 5.1%. Internal payment transactions accounted for the main share of 55.6% in total payment transactions structure. Observed by the share of executed payment orders, the main share was of internal payment transactions (67.7% or thousand executed orders). Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) In the first seven months of 2012, according to preliminary data, net FDI inflow amounted to EUR million, recording a y-o-y decrease of 10.5%. In the period January July 2012, there was an evident uptrend of the FDI inflow on a monthly level, as well as the 40% y-o-y increase in the investment in real estates. Equity investments were dominant. FDI inflow in the observed period amounted to EUR million, while the outflow of EUR 70,4 million was recorded in the same period. Graph 12 Net FDI inflow, EUR thousand Source: CBCG 27 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

28 U posmatranom periodu priliv SDI u formi vlasničkih ulaganja iznosio je 176,9 miliona eura, što čini 64,5% ukupnog priliva. U strukturi vlasničkih ulaganja 45,8 miliona eura se odnosilo na investicije u preduzeća i banke, dok je priliv po osnovu ulaganja u nekretnine iznosio 131,1 milion eura. Priliv SDI u formi interkompanijskog duga iznosio je 67 miliona eura, što je za 1,7% više u poređenju sa istim periodom Grafik br. 13 Struktura ukupnog priliva stranih direktnih investicija u periodu januar-jul Izvor: CBCG Ukupan odliv stranih direktnih investicija iznosio je 70,4 miliona eura ili 18,1% više nego u godini. U strukturi odliva na povlačenja sredstava nerezidenata investiranih u našu zemlju odnosilo se 35,8 miliona eura od čega je najveći dio išao na smenjenje obaveza po osnovu interkompanijskog duga (24,3 miliona eura), dok su ulaganja rezidenata u inostranstvo iznosila 34,6 miliona eura. Budžet Crne Gore 2 2 Podaci za jul nisu bili dostupni u trenutku pisanja Biltena. Bilten Centralne banke Crne Gore Avgust

29 In the reporting period, FDI inflow in the form of equity investments amounted to EUR million, or 64.5% of total inflow. In the structure of equity investments, investments in companies and banks accounted for EUR 45.8 million, while inflow arising from the investments in real estates amounted to EUR million. Inflow of FDI in the form of intercompany debt amounted to EUR 67 million, or 1.7% more compared to the same period Graph 13 - Structure of total FDI inflow, January July 2012 Source: CBCG FDI outflow amounted to EUR 70.4 million, which is a y-o-y growth of 18.1%. In the outflow structure, withdrawal of non-residents investments in Montenegro amounted to EUR 35.8 million of which the largest portion was for reducing liabilities from intercompany debt (EUR 24.3 million), while the outflow from residents investments abroad amounted to EUR 34.6 million. Budget of Montenegro 2 2 Data for July were not available at the time of the writing of Bulletin. 29 Bulletin of Central Bank of Montenegro

30 Statistički bilten I Monetarna statistika (preliminarni podaci) Statistical bulletin I Monetary Statistics (preliminary data) Tabela Monetarni pregled - Bilans stanja CBCG, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table CBM Survey, end-period balance, EUR thousand Monetarno zlato i SDR Strana valuta Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Rezervna pozicija u MMF-u Ostala potrazivanja Depoziti SDR alokacija 8 ( ) Ostale obaveze Neto strana aktiva Potraživanja od banaka Domaći krediti Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja Potraživanja od ostalih sektora 12 ( ) 13(8-12) (15-16) ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obavezna rezerva Obaveze* Depoziti banaka Depoziti ostalih sektora Ostali depoziti (21+22) Po viđenju Oročeni Ukupan kapital (24+25) ** , ** , , , Jan , Jan Feb , Feb Mar , Mar Apr , Apr Maj , May Jun , June Jul , July Avg , Aug Sep , Sep Okt , Oct Nov , Nov Dec , Dec , Jan , Jan Feb , Feb Mar , Mar Apr , Apr Maj , May Jun , Jun Jul , Jul Avg , Aug Sep , Sep Okt , Oct Nov , Nov Dec , Dec Jan , Jan Feb , Feb Mar , Mar Apr , Apr Maj , , May Jun , , June Jul , , July Monetary gold and SDR holdings 8 ( ) ( ) 13(8-12) (15-16) ( ) (21+22) (24+25) 27 Claims on Liabilities to Securities IMF Reserve Other Demand Time Foreign currency Deposits SDR Other other than Loans Reserve Deposits Net Claims on Central Central Net claims Claims on allocation liabilities shares position foreign banks Government Government Other reqirements deposits deposits deposits other sectors items capital assets Net claims on Central Government (net) Banks deposits Deposits of other sectors by Claims on nonresidents Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic credit Liabilities* * Centralna banka Crne Gore nema emisionu funkciju; euro je zvanično sredstvo plaćanja u Crnoj Gori ** Izvrsena revizija podataka i metodologije za period od Izvor: CBCG * Central Bank of Montenegro does not issue currency; EURO is the legal tender in Montenegro **Data and methodology revised since 2007 Source: CBM Statistički bilten Avgust

31 Tabela Monetarni pregled - bilans banaka, u 000 eura, stanje na kraju perioda Table Other Depository Corporations Survey, end-period balance, EUR thousand Potraživanja od nerezidenata Obaveze prema nerezidentima Domaći krediti Obaveze Strana valuta Depoziti HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostala potraživanja Depoziti 6 ( ) HOV osim akcija Krediti Ostale obaveze ( ) Neto strana aktiva 12 (6-11) Potraživanja od CBCG Neto potraživanja od centralne Vlade Potraživanja od centralne Vlade Obaveze prema centralnoj Vladi Neto potraživanja 16 (14-15) Potraživanja od ostalih sektora ( ) Neto ostale stavke Obaveze prema Centralnoj banci Depoziti po viđenju Depoziti ostalih sektora Oročeni depoziti HOV osim akcija Ukupan kapital (21+22) * * Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun June Jul July Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun Jun Jul Jul Avg Aug Sep Sep Okt Oct Nov Nov Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb Feb Mar Mar Apr Apr Maj May Jun June Jul July ( ) ( ) 12 (6-11) (14-15) ( ) Securities Securities Claims on Liabilities to Liabilities Currency in vaults Deposits other than Loans Other claims Deposits other than Loans Other liabilities Claims on Central Central Net claims Demand Time Claims on Net foreign Central Bank government governmetn other sectors Other to the depositsu deposits sheres sheres assets items Central (net) bank Net claims on Central government Deposits by other sectors Claims on nonresident Liabilities to nonresidents Domestic loans Liabilities 23 (21+22) Securities other than shares Capital * Izvrsena revizija podataka i metodologije za period od Izvor: CBCG * Data and methodology revised since 2007 Source: CBM 31 Statistical Bulletin