NCPI. March Namibia Consumer Price index. Namibia Consumer Price index - March

Transcription

1 NCPI Namibia Consumer Price index March 2018 Namibia Consumer Price index - March

2 Mission Statement Leveraging on partnerships and innovative technologies, to produce and disseminate relevant, quality, timely statistics and spatial data that are fit-forpurpose in accordance with international standards and best practice Vision Statement To be a high performance institution in quality statistics delivery Core Values Integrity Excellent Performance Accuracy Team Work Accountability Transparency 2

3 Contents 4 Summary 5 Overall Inflation 6 Main Drivers of Inflation 7 Box 1: NCPI Basket Weights 8 Major Groups 10 Minor Groups 11 Box 2: Chart of the Month 12 Goods and Services Inflation Namibia Consumer Price index - March

4 Annual Inflation continues slowing down Annual inflation for March 2018 slowed to 3.5 percent as compared to 7.0 percent recorded in March On a monthly basis it stood at 0.1 percent. Summary For the month of March 2018 the All Items Index was estimated at compared to registered in March The annual inflation rate for March 2018 slowed down to 3.5 percent from 7.0 percent recorded during the same period last year, a slowdown of 3.5 percentage points. The annual average inflation rate (from March 2017 to March 2018) was 5.3 percent. On a monthly basis, the inflation rate remained unchanged at 0.1 percent when compared to the preceding month. Alex Shimuafeni Statistician-General & CEO This slowdown resulted from the price levels of Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels which decreased from 9.4 percent to 3.3 percent; Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance from 7.4 percent to 0.9 percent; Hotels, cafes and restaurants from 8.6 percent to 3.7 percent; Food and non-alcoholic beverages from 7.3 to 2.7 percent; Communications from 5.6 percent to 0.4 percent and Clothing and footwear from 2.0 percent to -5.7 percent. 4

5 Overall Inflation Chart 1: NCPI; Monthly and annual percentage changes; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) Namibia Consumer Price index - March

6 Main Drivers of Inflation The highest drivers of inflation during the month of March 2018 were Education (9.9 percent), Health (6.0 percent) and Transport (5.4 percent). Chart 2: NCPI; annual percentage changes by all groups, March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) 6

7 Box 1: NCPI Basket Weights Inflation is calculated based on a basket of goods and services, containing a representative sample of the goods and or services commonly consumed in a country, and weighted in accordance with the relative percentage of expenditure allotted to each of the said goods at household level. The price of these goods and services are then tracked over time, to illustrate the change in the cost of living over time. As spending patterns change, new products and services are added to the basket, and the basket reweighted so as to better capture the current spending patterns of the consumer at the current point in time. As such, the inflation basket is generally reconstituted every five years. In Namibia, the basket was last rebased in 2013, using household expenditure data collected in the 2009/10 Household Income and Expenditure Survey. The basket now contains over 350 items, grouped into 12 categories and 55 sub-categories, for which prices are collected on a monthly basis from more than 900 retail outlets. Namibian inflation however, is largely determined by three categories of the overall NCPI basket, namely: (i) Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, (ii) Food and non-alcoholic beverages and (iii) Transport, which cumulatively make up just under 60 percent of the total inflation basket. Additionally, following the rebasing of the NCPI basket in 2013, Alcoholic beverages and tobacco make up an additional 12.6 percent of the basket, meaning that the four largest categories represent well over 70 percent of the total basket. As such, a large increase in inflation in these categories has a greater impact on the overall inflation than do increases in the lower weighted categories. Thus, it is rare to see major increases in overall inflation attributed to the lower weighted categories, despite the fact that these categories may have seen relatively high inflation in their own right. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages Transport Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Furnishings, Household Equipment Miscellaneous Goods and Services Communication Education Recreation and Culture Clothing and Footwear Health Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants 28.36% 16.45% 14.28% 12.59% 5.47% 5.39% 3.81% 3.65% 3.55% 3.05% 2.01% 1.39% Namibia Consumer Price index - March

8 Major Groups Food and non-alcoholic beverages Alcoholic beverages and tobacco Food and non-alcoholic beverages has been experiencing a slowdown in annual inflation rate during the reporting period. The annual inflation rate for this category stood at 2.7 percent in March 2018 compared to 7.3 percent registered during the same period last year, a decrease of 4.6 percentage points. The significant decrease in this group emanated from annual price decreases recorded in all the sub-groups comprising the Food and non-alcoholic beverages component with the exception of fruits. The Fish sub-group had the highest decrease of 13.6 percentage points (from 16.7 percent last year to 3.1 percent this year). The monthly inflation rate for this category, slowed to 0.1 percent compared to 0.3 percent registered in the previous month. For March 2018, the annual inflation rate for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco stood at 4.3 percent compared to 4.4 percent recorded during the same period last year, resulting in a decrease of 0.1 percentage points. This decrease resulted from decreases in the price levels of alcoholic beverages sub category while the other sub-category (Tobacco) increased with 1 percentage point. The monthly inflation rate for this group slowed to 0.3 percent compared to 0.5 percent registered last month. Chart 4: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Alcoholic beverages and tobacco; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) Chart 3: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for selected food sub-categories; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) 8

9 Transport Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels The annual inflation rate for the Transport group slowed to 5.4 percent in March 2018 from 6.5 percent recorded in March 2017, resulting in a decline of 1.1 percentage points. The decline resulted from decreases recorded in the price levels of Operation of transport equipment subcomponent, which decreased from 8.5 percent obtained in March 2017 to 5.8 percent registered in March On a monthly basis, the inflation rate for Transport dropped to 0.3 percent when compared to 0.6 percent recorded in the previous month. Chart 5: NCPI; Annual inflation rate for Transport; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) During March 2018, the annual inflation rate for Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels category stood at 3.3 percent compared to 9.4 percent recorded during the same period a year earlier. The slow down originated from the decreases registered in all the sub-groups comprising the Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels group with Rental payments recording the highest decrease of 7.0 percentage points amongst the subgroups. The monthly inflation rate for this group decreased to 0.0 percent compared to -0.2 percent recorded last month. Chart 6: NCPI; Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) Namibia Consumer Price index - March

10 Minor Groups For the minor groups, high annual inflation rates were observed in the groups of Education (9.9 percent), Health (6.0 percent), Miscellaneous goods and services (4.3 percent), Hotels, cafes and restaurants (3.7 percent) and Recreation and culture (2.8 percent). Furnishing, house hold equipment and routine maintenance of the house and Communication groups registered annual inflation rates below one (1.0) percent while Clothing and footwear group registered the lowest annual inflation rate of -5.7 percent. Chart 7: NCPI; Annual inflation rates for Minor groups; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) 10

11 Box 2: Chart of the Month Chart 8: NCPI; Annual inflation for Communication; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) The annual inflation rate for Communication stood at 0.4 percent in March 2018 compared to 5.6 percent recorded in March 2017, resulting in a decrease of 5.2 percentage points. The decrease resulted from declines witnessed in the price levels of Communication equipment which dropped from 6.2 percent recorded in March 2017 to -2.9 percent registered in March 2018 and Telecommunication charges which declined from 5.4 percent in March 2017 to 0.1 percent in the same period this year. The monthly inflation for this group increased to 0.2 compared to -0.1 recorded a month earlier. Namibia Consumer Price index - March

12 Goods and Services Inflation The Index for Goods and Services for March 2018 stood at and respectively compared to the corresponding indices of and recorded during the same period last year. The monthly and annual inflation rates for Goods were 0.2 and 2.8 percent while those of Services stood at 0.0 and 4.4 percent respectively. The corresponding rates recorded during the same period last year stood at 0.2 and 6.3 percent and 0.0 and 8.1 percent respectively. Chart 9: NCPI; Goods and Services monthly and annual inflation rates; March 2018 (Dec 2012 = 100) 12

13 Table 1: NCPI: All-Items Index, monthly and annual percentage changes (Dec 2012 =100) Period Index m-o-m y-o-y Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec An. Av Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec An. Av Jan Feb Mar Namibia Consumer Price index - March

14 Table 2: NCPI for March 2018 by main groups and sub-groups (Dec.2012=100) CPI Inflation Rate Weights Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 m-o-m y-o-y ALL ITEMS GOODS SERVICES FOOD AND NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES Food Bread and cereals Meat Fish Milk, cheese and eggs Oils and fats Fruit Vegetables including potatoes and other tubers Sugar, jam, honey, syrups, chocolate and confectionery Food products n.e.c Non-alcoholic beverages Coffee, tea and cocoa Mineral waters, soft drinks and juices ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO Alcoholic beverages Tobacco CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR Clothing Clothing materials Ready-made clothing Men's clothing Women's clothing Children's clothing Boys' clothing Girls' clothing Infants' clothing Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories Dry cleaning, repair and hire of clothing Footwear Adult footwear Children's footwear Repair of footwear HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS Rental payments for dwelling (both owners and renters) Regular maintenance and repair of dwelling Water supply, sewerage service and refuse collection Electricity gas and other fuels

15 Table 2: NCPI for March 2018 by main groups and sub-groups (Dec.2012=100) Weights CPI Inflation Rate Mar-17 Feb-18 Mar-18 m-o-m y-o-y FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT AND ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE Furniture, furnishings, decorations, carpets, floor coverings, incl. repairs Furniture and furnishings Carpets and other floor coverings Repair of furnishings and floor coverings Household textiles Heating and cooking appliances, refrigerators, washing machines and similar major household appliances, etc Glassware, tableware and household utensils Tools and equipment for house and garden Goods and services for routine household maintenance HEALTH Medical products, appliances and equipment Outpatient Services, medical, dental and paramedical Hospital services TRANSPORT Purchase of vehicles Operation of personal transport equipment Public transportation services COMMUNICATIONS RECREATION AND CULTURE Audio-visual, photographic and data processing equip. incl. repairs Other major durables for recreation and culture Other recreational items and equipment; flowers, gardens and pets Recreation and cultural services Newspapers, books and stationery Package holidays EDUCATION Pre-primary education (ages 2 to 6 years) Primary (private) and Secondary education (ages 7 to 17 years) Tertiary education HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS Catering Accommodation services MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES Personal care Personal effects n.e.c Insurance Financial services n.e.c Other services n.e.c Namibia Consumer Price index - March

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