BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA. January 2011

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1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA January March 2011

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3 TABLE OF CONTENTS I. Balance of Payments (January 2011)... 3 Impact of Crude Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas Prices on the Trade Balance and the Current Account of the Balance of Payments, January December Direct Investment, January Balance of Payments Data Revisions ( ) Tables Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation (comparison table) Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation (monthly data) Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation (quarterly data) Balance of Payments, Analytic Presentation (annual data) Balance of Payments, Standard Presentation (monthly data) Balance of Payments, Standard Presentation (annual data) Services Income Current and Capital Transfers Direct Investment Portfolio Investment Other Investment (Standard Presentation) Geographical Breakdown External Sector Indicators (table and graphs) II. External Trade External Trade of Bulgaria (January December 2010) Contribution to the Change of Total Exports and Total Imports Tables Exports (by End Use) Exports (by Commodity Groups) Exports (by Main Trade Partners and Regions) Imports (by End Use) Imports (by Commodity Groups) Imports (by Main Trade Partners and Regions) Methodological Notes on the Compilation of the Balance of Payments of Bulgaria External Sector Data, Published on the Internet Site of the BNB

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5 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS 1 JANUARY 2011 Current and Capital Account In the period January 2011, the Current and Capital account was positive, amounting to EUR million (0.4% of GDP), against a deficit of EUR million (0.8% of GDP) for the same period in Current Account The Current account in the period January 2011 was positive, amounting to EUR million, and the balance increased by EUR 450 million compared to January 2010 (a deficit of EUR million). As a percent of GDP 2 the current account amounted to 0.4% and the balance was higher by 1.2 p.p. compared to January 2010 (a deficit of 0.8% of GDP). The factors for the current account balance increase were the higher balances on the item Goods (by EUR 281 million), the item Income (by EUR 87.3 million) and the item Service (EUR 83.5 million). Over the reporting period in 2011 the trade balance was positive, amounting to EUR million (0.3% of GDP) and the balance increased by EUR 281 million compared to January 2010 (a deficit of EUR million, 0.5% of GDP). In January 2011 Exports (FOB) amounted to EUR 1,590.6 million and increased by 72.6% (EUR million) compared to the same period in 2010 (EUR million). The exports increased in January 2010 yoy by 13.2%. In January 2011 Imports (FOB) amounted to EUR 1,478.9 million and increased by 35.6% (EUR million) compared to the same period in 2010 (EUR 1,090.7 million). The imports decreased in January 2010 yoy by 5%. The balance on the Services item was positive, amounting to EUR 60 million and the balance increased by EUR 83.5 million compared to January 2010 (a negative balance amounting to EUR 23.4 million). The travel balance was positive, amounting to EUR 36.3 million (0.1% of GDP) against a positive balance amounting to EUR 33.3 million (0.1% of GDP) in January The analysis is prepared after the analytical table of the Balance of Payments. The 2010 and 2011 data are preliminary. The data for January December 2010 are revised. With the January February 2011 report revisions for the January 2011 data will be presented. 2 GDP for EUR 37,707 million (BNB estimate) and GDP for 2010 EUR 36,032.9 million (NSI data as of ). 3

6 The income balance was negative amounting to EUR 62.8 million (0.2% of GDP) compared to a negative item of EUR 150 million (0.4% of GDP) for January The net current transfers were positive amounting to EUR 49.1 million (0.1% of GDP) against a positive balance of EUR 50.9 million (0.1% of GDP) for January 2010, and the decrease was EUR 1.8 million. The subitem Current Transfers from the EU Funds, credit was negative (due to reimbursements to PHARE ) amounting to EUR 3.7 million against a positive subitem amounting to EUR 0.1 million in January The payments of current transfers towards the EU for the reporting period amounted to EUR 37 million against EUR 39.5 million for the same period in the previous year. Capital Account The Capital account balance 3 was negative and amounted to EUR 2.6 million (EUR 2.6 million net capital transfers towards the EU), compared to a negative balance of EUR 6.6 million (EUR 6.6 million net capital transfers towards the EU funds) for the period January Financial Account The Financial account balance was negative amounting to EUR million, compared to a negative balance of EUR 195 million for the same period in 2010 and was lower by EUR million. According to preliminary data Foreign Direct Investment in Bulgaria for the reporting period in 2011 was EUR million (0.3% of GDP) against EUR 57.3 million (0.2% of GDP) in the same period of Equity Capital amounted to EUR 4.8 million against EUR 42.3 million in the same period of The receipts from real estate investment of non-residents were EUR 6.1 million, keeping their level unchanged compared to January Portfolio investment - assets decreased by EUR 3.5 million, compared to an increase of EUR 37.4 million for the same period in The banks decreased their portfolio investment assets by EUR 9.2 million against an increase of EUR 37.5 million for the period January Portfolio investment liabilities decreased by EUR million against an increase of EUR 4.4 million for January Other investment assets increased by EUR million, compared to a decrease of EUR million for the same period in The item Currency and Deposits of the banks increased by EUR million compared to a decrease of EUR million for January The Capital Account comprises the items Capital Transfers and Acquisition or Disposal of Non-Produced Non-financial Assets. 4

7 Other investment liabilities decreased by EUR million against a decrease of EUR million for January The decrease for the reporting period in 2011 was due to a decrease of non-residents deposits in local banks (by EUR million). The item Net errors and omissions was negative, amounting to EUR 159 million compared to a positive item amounting to EUR 70.6 million for January The Overall balance was negative, amounting to EUR million (1.7% of GDP) compared to a negative overall balance of EUR million (1.2% of GDP) for January In January 2011 the BNB reserve assets 4 decreased by EUR million. 4 Excluding valuation changes due to the exchange rate or price changes, changes associated with the creation of reserve assets (monetarization/demonitarization of gold and the allocation or cancellation of SDRs) and reclassifications. 5

8 Impact of Crude Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas Prices on the Trade Balance and the Current Account of the Balance of Payments 1 January December 2010 The crude oil and natural gas amounted to 16.1% of total imports (CIF), and the petroleum products respectively to 10.9% of total exports (FOB) of Bulgaria for the period January December Therefore, the changes in their prices have an impact on the trade balance and on the balance of payments current account. The factors, which influence the changes in the payments for crude oil and natural gas imports and in the receipts from petroleum products exports for January December 2010 yoy are: first, the price differentials for the two periods; second, the changes in their exports and imports physical volumes and third, the changes in the exchange rate USD/EUR. Price Changes In December 2010 the average price of the Brent crude oil in the international markets increased by 22.9% (to 91.8 USD/barrel) compared to that for the same month in 2009 (74.7 USD/barrel) 2. In December 2010 the average price in USD of the country s crude oil imports increased by 23.8% compared to December For the period January December 2010 the average price (in USD) of the Brent crude oil in the international markets increased by 28.7% compared to the same period in 2009, and the average price of the country s crude oil imports increased by 31.1% 3. Crude Oil Prices (January 2001 December 2010) USD (EUR)/metric ton USD/barrel Import of Crude Oil (USD per metric ton) Import of Crude Oil (EUR per metric ton) Crude Oil (Brent, USD per barrel) 1 The part External Trade of Bulgaria of the issue Balance of Payments of Bulgaria covers a reporting period shorter by one month than that of the balance of payments. According to Regulation (EC) No 638/2004 of the European Parliament and the Council NSI provides the EUROSTAT with detailed data on dispatches and arrivals of goods within the EU (INTRASTAT) within 70 days after the close of the reporting month (see methodological notes). 2 Source: Commodity Price Data, the World Bank. 3 The changes in the price of the country s crude oil and natural gas imports and of petroleum products exports are calculated on the basis of customs declarations, received by the Customs Agency and on the basis of INTRASTAT declarations. 6

9 Estimated in EUR in December 2010 the average price of the country s crude oil imports increased by 37.3% compared to December 2009, and in the reporting period of 2010 it increased by 37.5% yoy 4. For the period January December 2010 the average price (in EUR) of the country s natural gas imports increased by 11.1% yoy. 5 Estimated in EUR for December 2010 the average price of exported petroleum products increased by 35.8% yoy, and for the reporting period it increased by 31.2% yoy 6. Changes in the Physical Volumes According to data from the Customs Agency for January December 2010 imports of crude oil to the country decreased by 13.1% yoy. 7 The natural gas imported quantities increased by 0.3% and the imported quantities of petroleum products increased by 49.4% yoy. 8 In the reporting period the exported quantities of petroleum products increased by 8.3% yoy. Effects on the Trade Balance and the Current Account Excluding the influence of the price factor on the crude oil, the petroleum products and natural gas, the increase yoy of total exports of the country (FOB) for January December 2010 amounted to 29.9% (compared to reported 33.2%), and the increase of imports amounted to 8.9% (compared to a reported increase of 13.4%). The changes in the prices of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas in December 2010 led to an increase in the trade deficit and in the current account deficit of EUR 45.4 million and EUR 46.1 million respectively. For January December 2010 the trade deficit increased by EUR million and the current account deficit by EUR million. Balance of Crude Oil, Petroleum Products and Natural Gas In December 2010 the balance of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas imports, and petroleum products exports was negative amounting to EUR million. The deficit increased by EUR 17.7 million compared to December 2009 (a deficit of EUR million). In the reporting period of 2010 the balance was negative amounting to EUR 1,851.1 million (5.1% of GDP 9 ) and the deficit increased by EUR million compared to the same period of 2009 (a deficit of EUR 1,648.6 million, 4.7% of GDP). 4 The differences in the reported changes in prices of crude oil in EUR and USD are due to the exchange rate changes (USD/EUR). Customs exchange rates are used for the respective period. 5 Data provided by the NSI. 6 Exports of commodity group 2710 (petroleum oil). 7 Including crude oil for processing. 8 Data on imports of crude oil and natural gas in quantities are not included due to the possibility of revealing information, which constitutes commercial secret. 9 GDP for EUR 34,932.3 million (NSI data as of ) and GDP for 2010 (NSI data as of ) EUR 36,032.9 million. 7

10 DIRECT INVESTMENT (January 2011) 1 According to preliminary data, the Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for January 2011 was EUR million (0.3% of GDP), compared to EUR 57.3 million (0.2% of GDP) attracted in January (EUR million) 2009 г г г г г. Общо I. I - III ІV - VІ VII - ІX X - XII Общо I. I. Direct investment, net Direct investment abroad * Equity capital Other capital Reinvested earnings Foreign Direct Investment Equity capital, incl from privatisation non-privatisation flows Other capital Reinvested earnings Source: direct investment companies, the Privatisation Agency, the National Statistical Institute, the Central Depository, banks. * For assets, a minus sign denotes an increase in holdings, and a positive figure represents a decrease. The attracted Equity Capital (acquisition/disposal of shares and equities in cash and contributions in kind by non-residents in/from the capital and reserves of Bulgarian enterprises and receipts/payments from/for real estate deals in the country) for January 2011 amounted to EUR 4.8 million. It decreased by EUR 37.5 million compared to that attracted in the same period of 2010 (EUR 42.3 million). The receipts from real estate investments of nonresidents amounted to EUR 6.1 million and kept its level of the January (Euro mln.) Foreign Direct Investment January (2010 and 2011) Total Equity capital Other capital Reinvested earnings

11 The other capital, net (the change in the net liabilities of the direct investment enterprise to the direct investor on financial loans, suppliers credits and debt securities) was positive, amounting to EUR 82.9 million in January 2011, compared to a negative other capital, net of EUR 4.2 million in January Based on preliminary data on profit/loss, the Reinvested Earnings 2 (the share of non-residents in the undistributed earnings/ loss of the enterprise) in January 2011 were estimated at EUR 16.1 million, against EUR 19.2 million in the same period of By country, the largest net direct investments in Bulgaria for the period January 2011 were those of Austria (EUR 85.2 million), Germany (EUR 6.2 million) and Hungary (EUR 5.5 million). EUR million FDI Flows Geographical Breakdown (January 2011) Source: BNB According to preliminary data in January 2011 Direct investment abroad increased by EUR 8.4 million compared to an increase of EUR 6.1 million in January Preliminary data for 2010 and The data for January December 2010 are revised. When comparing the data yoy it should be taken into account that the initial data on the January 2010 FDI, published in a BNB press release as of March 15, 2010 ( section Press Releases/Statistical Press Releases/Balance of Payments), was subsequently revised. With the January February 2011 report revisions of January 2011 data will be presented. The 2010 data are subject to revisions with the quarterly reports to the BNB from foreign direct investment enterprises and with the annual NSI data, and for 2011 also with the quarterly NSI data. GDP for EUR 37,707 million (BNB estimate) and GDP for NSI data (as of ) at EUR 36,032.9 million. 2 The 2010 and 2011 data include only estimates of banks data on reinvested earnings. 9

12 Balance of Payments Data Revisions In accordance with by the BNB practice and with the ECB data revision requirements (included in the ECB Timetable for Exchange of Balance of Payments, International Investment Position and Reserve Assets Statistics within the ESCB) in March of each calendar year as usual the BNB revises the preliminary data for the preceding up to three years. The revisions of the separate items are presented in the enclosed table. 1 The current revisions ensued from additionally received information from the NSI on the 2009 annual data on FDI in the non-financial sector (received in the BNB in December 2010 and processed afterwards), as well as information from the enterprises in the non-financial sector, the NSI, the Central Depository, BIS Basel, banks and non-bank financial institutions, the Ministry of Finance and Eurostat. Part of the 2010 revisions were due to the implementation of direct reporting of resident enterprises on transactions with non-residents, which were related to services, compensations, social insurance, and receipts and payments quid pro quo for the estimation of subitems Other Services, Compensation of Employees, debit and Other Current Transfers of Other Sectors, n.i.e. The new methodologies were developed by the BNB on the basis of a regular quarterly survey among the enterprises The item Trade Balance for 2010 increased its negative value from EUR 2,401 million (6.7% of GDP) to EUR 2,412.5 million (6.7% of GDP). As a result of the implementation of direct reporting of enterprises on services, performed between residents and non-residents, the subitem Other Services, net of item Services, net, was revised in a direction of deficit decrease by EUR 13.4 million. The item Services, net increased by EUR 9.6 million reaching EUR 1,901.9 million. Introduction of Direct Reporting from Enterprises In accordance with Regulation (EC) No 924/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 September 2009 on cross-border payments in the Community and repealing Regulation (EC) No 2560/2001 with effect from January 2010, the settlement-based national reporting obligations on payment service providers for balance of payments statistics related to payment transactions of their customers up to EUR were removed. The quality and the scope of the data collected by the banks depend to a great extent on the threshold above which they report the transactions between residents and non-residents to the BNB. Raising the threshold without alternative source for these data would have considerably deteriorated the quality of the balance of payments data and particularly of the current account. The analysis showed that the loss of information for some services items could reach up to 90%. For that reason the BNB has changed the methodology for collection and compilation of data on other services and other items in the current account that still relied on the settlement data. As of the beginning of 2010 the BNB started conducting regular quarterly survey among enterprises trading internationally in services. Based on the results of the survey, with the publication of January 2011 balance of payments figures, data on other services for 2010 are revised. Due to additionally included information from the non-financial enterprises, the deficit of the Income item increased from EUR 1,326.3 million to EUR 1,392.4 million. The item Current Transfers, net decreased by EUR 5.6 million reaching EUR 1,546.7 million. The revisions were mainly due to revisions of subitem Other Current Transfers of Other Sectors, n.i.e. after the implementation of enterprises direct reporting and due to regular revisions of subitem Workers Remittances, credit. As a result of these revisions the current account deficit for The revised data on the International Investment Position are to be presented on 31 March See Methodological Notes on the Compilation of the Balance of Payments of Bulgaria. 10

13 grew by EUR 73.5 million (0.2% of GDP) reaching a deficit of EUR million (1% of GDP) against a deficit of EUR million (0.8% of GDP) before that. Foreign Direct Investment Abroad increased by EUR 29.8 million, due to additionally received information from non-financial enterprises. As a result of additionally received information from the quarterly reports of nonfinancial enterprises, the item Direct Investment in Bulgaria increased by EUR million (0.8% of GDP) reaching EUR 1,638.6 million (4.5% of GDP). The item Portfolio Investment Assets was revised in a direction of assets increase by EUR 69.3 million, due to additionally included information on insurance companies, and investment and pension funds. The item Other Investment Assets was revised towards assets increase by EUR 58.6 million (additionally included data from the BIS Basel), as a result of which Other Investment Assets decreased by EUR million in total for The item Other Investment Liabilities increased by EUR million reaching a negative value of EUR 1,142.6 million The item Income, net was revised in a direction of deficit decrease by EUR million, mainly due to the included losses of enterprises from the non-financial sector for 2009 based on the NSI annual data (subitem Reinvested Earnings). After the revisions the item reached a negative value of EUR 1,200.2 million. The item Services, net was revised upwards by EUR 2.5 million mainly due to included information from the banks. The item Current Transfers, net was revised by EUR 24.6 million. As a result of these revisions the current account deficit for 2009 decreased by EUR million (1% of GDP) reaching a deficit of EUR 3,117.8 million (8.9% of GDP) against a deficit of EUR 3,477 million (10% of GDP) before that. As a result of the inclusion of the NSI annual FDI data, the item Direct Investment in Bulgaria was revised downwards by EUR million (2.5% of GDP) reaching EUR 2,412.2 million (6.9% of GDP) against EUR 3,281.9 million (9.4% of GDP) before that. These revisions were mainly due to the revisions of subitem Equity Capital (by EUR million) and subitem Reinvestment Earnings (revision in the direction of a decrease of EUR million, reflecting mainly the losses of enterprises from the non-financial sector for 2009). Revisions of Foreign Direct Investment in Bulgaria for 2009 The revision of Foreign direct investment in Bulgaria for 2009 is mainly due to revision of items Equity Capital and Reinvested Earnings. During the reporting year the Bulgarian National Bank includes data only on transactions with registered capital of non-financial enterprises received through the banking reporting system and the direct reporting enterprises. The BNB supplements the data once a year with information received from the NSI on changes of the other components of the equity capital reserves, financial result, etc., in accordance with the international standards of reporting of foreign direct investment on Own Funds at Book Value. The source of this information is the NSI s annual survey on the foreign direct investment in the enterprises from the non-financial sector, which information is based on the annual financial statements. In 2009 mainly due to the decrease of reserves the item Equity Capital decreased by EUR million. The revision of item Reinvested Earnings from EUR million to EUR million (change of EUR million) is mainly due to the inclusion of the data on the reported financial result of the enterprises from the non-financial sector and the dividends distributed to foreign direct investors million. Item Other Investment Liabilities decreased by EUR million to a negative item amounting to EUR 11

14 2008 The item Income, net was revised downwards by EUR 1.5 million. The item Current Transfers, net was revised upwards by EUR 29.9 million. As a result of these revisions the current account deficit for 2008 decreased by EUR 28.6 million (0.1% of GDP), reaching a deficit of EUR 8,162.4 million (23% of GDP) against a deficit of EUR 8,191 million (23.1% of GDP) before that. Foreign Direct Investment Abroad were revised upwards by EUR 32.7 million, reaching an increase for 2008 of EUR million. The item Direct Investment in Bulgaria was revised by EUR 41.9 million, reaching EUR 6,727.8 million, against EUR 6,685.9 million before that. These revisions were mainly due to additionally received information from the enterprises from the non-financial sector for

15 Balance of Payments Data Revisions ANALYTICAL PRESENTATION Preliminary data Revisions Revised data Preliminary data Revisions Revised data Preliminary data Revisions Revised data EUR million A. Current Account Trade Balance Services, net Transportation, net Travel, net Other services, net Income, net Current Transfers, net B. Capital Account C. Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Reporting Economy Equity Capital Other Capital Reinvested Earnings Mergers and Acquisitions, net Portfolio Investment - Assets Portfolio Investment - Liabilities Other Investment - Assets Other Investment - Liabilities D. Net Errors and Omissions Overall Balance (TOTAL for A, B, C and D) E. Reserves and Related Items BNB Reserve Assets Use of Fund Credit, net Exceptional Financing

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17 TABLES 15

18 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA ANALYTICAL PRESENTATION * Cumulated figures January Change (Euro mln.) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) Current and Capital account (A + B) % 0.4% A. Current Account % 0.4% Goods: credit % 4.2% Goods: debit % -3.9% Balance on Goods % 0.3% Services: credit % 0.8% Transportation % 0.2% Travel % 0.3% Other services % 0.3% Services: debit % -0.7% Transportation % -0.2% Travel % -0.2% Other services % -0.3% Balance on Services % 0.2% Transportation, net % 0.0% Travel, net % 0.1% Other services, net % 0.0% Balance on goods and services % 0.5% Income: credit % 0.1% Compensation of employees: credit % 0.0% Other investment income: credit % 0.1% Income: debit % -0.3% Compensation of employees: debit % 0.0% Other investment income: debit % -0.3% Balance on Income % -0.2% Balance on goods, services and income % 0.3% Current transfers, net % 0.1% Current transfers: credit % 0.3% Current transfers: debit % -0.1% B. Capital Account 1, 6, % 0.0% Capital transfers, net % 0.0% Total, Groups A Plus B % 0.4% C. Financial Account 1, % -1.7% Direct investment, net % 0.3% Direct investment abroad % 0.0% Direct investment in reporting economy % 0.3% Mergers and acquisitions % 0.0% 16

19 Cumulated figures January Change (Euro mln.) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) Portfolio investment, net % -0.3% Portfolio investment assets % 0.0% Portfolio investment liabilities % -0.3% Financial derivatives, net % 0.0% Other investment, net % -1.6% Other investment assets 12, % -1.0% Other investment liabilities % -0.6% Total, Groups A Through C % -1.2% D. Net Errors and Omissions % -0.4% OVERALL BALANCE % -1.7% E. Reserves and Related Items % 1.7% BNB Forex Reserves % 1.7% Use of Fund credit, net % 0.0% Exceptional financing, net % 0.0% * Analytic presentation in accordance with IMF 5-th edition of the "Balance of Payments Manual". 1 Preliminary data. The data for January December 2010 are revised. With the February 2011 report, balance of payments data for the period January 2011 are to be revised. 2 Data are based on customs declarations, supplemented with NSI data and processed by the BNB, as of date of customs clearing. The data are reconciled with the NSI. For 2011 preliminary NSI data as of 9 March 2011 which include data from the system INTRASTAT for the EU member states and from customs declarations for non-eu countries. The recalculation of imports at FOB prices is based on a methodology developed by the BNB and the NSI. 3 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB and the NSI. 4 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. Data for are based on preliminary NSI data on the numbers of foreign visitors and Bulgarians, who have travelled abroad. 5 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. 6 A minus sign denotes a capital outflow (increase in assets or decrease in liabilities). 7 The item includes Capital transfers and Acquisition/Disposal of nonproduced nonfinancial assets. 8 Preliminary data. Data are provided by direct investment companies reporting to BNB, Agency for Privatization, NSI, Central Depository, banks and others. The 2010 and 2011 data include only banks data on reinvested earnings. 9 On the basis of the reports submitted to the BNB by the enterprises with financial credits received from non-residents. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 10 Mergers and acquisitions are included in this item. 11 Banks, other nonbank financial institutions, insurance companies and pension funds' data. 12 Data on net change of trade credits-assets (paid advances and receivables from suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 13 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data. For data are subject to revisions. 14 Data on net change of trade credits-liabilities (received advances and payables to suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 15 Excluding valuation changes due to the exchange rate or price changes, changes associated with the creation of reserve assets (monetarization/demonitarization of gold and the allocation or cancellation of SDRs) and reclassifications. A minus sign (-) denotes an increase in the reserves, a positive sign (+) - a decrease. 17

20 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA ANALYTIC PRESENTATION* (monthly data) Cumulated figures January Twelve-month cumulated figures ending ANALITIC PRESENTATION* (mln EUR) Jan. 10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May. 10 Jun. 10 Jul. 10 Aug. 10 Sep. 10 Oct. 10 Nov. 10 Dec.10 Jan I I.2011 Current account Goods, credit (FOB) Goods, debit (FOB) Trade Balance Services, credit Transportation Travel Other services Services, debit Transportation Travel Other services Services, net Goods and services, net Income, credit Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Income, debit Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Income, net Goods, services and income, net Current transfers, net Current transfers, creditt Current transfers, debit Capital account 1,6, Capital transfers, net Current and Capital account Financial account 1, Direct investment Abroad Equity capital Reinvested earnings Other capital In the reporting economy Equity capital Reinvested earnings Other capital Mergers and acquisitions, net Portfolio investment, net Portfolio investment, asssets Equity securities Debt securities Portfolio investment, liabilities Equity securities Debt securities Financial derivatives, net

21 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA ANALYTIC PRESENTATION* (monthly data) Cumulated figures January Twelve-month cumulated figures ending ANALITIC PRESENTATION* (mln EUR) Jan. 10 Feb.10 Mar.10 Apr.10 May. 10 Jun. 10 Jul. 10 Aug. 10 Sep. 10 Oct. 10 Nov. 10 Dec.10 Jan I I.2011 Other investment, net Other investment, assets Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other assets Other investment, liabilities Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other liabilities Current, Capital and Financial Account Net errors and omissions OVERAL BALANCE Reserves and related items Official reserve assets Use of fund credits and loans, net Exceptional financing transactions * Analytic presentation in accordance with IMF 5-th edition of the "Balance of Payments Manual". 1 Preliminary data. The data for January December 2010 are revised. With the February 2011 report, balance of payments data for the period January 2011 are to be revised. Data are based on customs declarations, supplemented with NSI data and processed by the BNB, as of date of customs clearing. The data are reconciled with the NSI. For 2011 preliminary NSI data as of 9 March 2011 which include data from the system INTRASTAT for the EU member states and from customs declarations for non-eu countries. The recalculation of imports at FOB prices is based on a methodology developed by the BNB and the NSI. 3 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB and the NSI. 4 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. Data for are based on preliminary NSI data on the numbers of foreign visitors and Bulgarians, who have travelled abroad. 5 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. 6 A minus sign denotes a capital outflow (increase in assets or decrease in liabilities). 7 The item includes Capital transfers and Acquisition/Disposal of nonproduced nonfinancial assets. 8 Preliminary data. Data are provided by direct investment companies reporting to BNB, Agency for Privatization, NSI, Central Depository, banks and others. The 2010 and 2011 data include only banks data on reinvested earnings. 9 On the basis of the reports submitted to the BNB by the enterprises with financial credits received from non-residents. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 10 Mergers and acquisitions are included in this item. 11 Banks, other nonbank financial institutions, insurance companies and pension funds' data. 12 Data on net change of trade credits-assets (paid advances and receivables from suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 13 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data. For data are subject to revisions. 14 Data on net change of trade credits-liabilities (received advances and payables to suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 15 Excluding valuation changes due to the exchange rate or price changes, changes associated with the creation of reserve assets (monetarization/demonitarization of gold and the allocation or cancellation of SDRs) and reclassifications. A minus sign (-) denotes an increase in the reserves, a positive sign (+) - a decrease. 19

22 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA ANALYTIC PRESENTATION* (Quarterly data) ANALITIC PRESENTATION* Change 2010/2009 (mln EUR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Current account Goods, credit (FOB) Goods, debit (FOB) Trade Balance Services, credit Transportation Travel Other services Services, debit Transportation Travel Other services Services, net Goods and services, net Income, credit Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Income, debit Compensation of employees Investment income Direct investment Portfolio investment Other investment Income, net Goods, services and income, net Current transfers, net Current transfers, creditt Current transfers, debit Capital account 1,6, Capital transfers, net Current and Capital account Financial account 1, Direct investment Abroad Equity capital Reinvested earnings Other capital In the reporting economy Equity capital Reinvested earnings Other capital Mergers and acquisitions, net Portfolio investment, net Portfolio investment, asssets

23 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF BULGARIA ANALYTIC PRESENTATION* (Quarterly data) ANALITIC PRESENTATION* Change 2010/2009 (mln EUR) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Equity securities Debt securities Portfolio investment, liabilities Equity securities Debt securities Financial derivatives, net Other investment, net Other investment, assets Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other assets Other investment, liabilities Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other liabilities Current, Capital and Financial Account Net errors and omissions OVERAL BALANCE Reserves and related items Official reserve assets Use of fund credits and loans, net Exceptional financing transactions * Analytic presentation in accordance with IMF 5-th edition of the "Balance of Payments Manual". 1 Preliminary data. The data for January December 2010 are revised. With the February 2011 report, balance of payments data for the period January 2011 are to be revised. Data are based on customs declarations, supplemented with NSI data and processed by the BNB, as of date of customs clearing. The data are reconciled with the NSI. For 2011 preliminary NSI data as of 9 March 2011 which include data from the system INTRASTAT for the EU member states and from customs declarations for non-eu countries. The recalculation of imports at FOB prices is based on a methodology developed by the BNB and the NSI. 3 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB and the NSI. 4 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. Data for are based on preliminary NSI data on the numbers of foreign visitors and Bulgarians, who have travelled abroad. 5 Estimates following a methodology of the BNB. 6 A minus sign denotes a capital outflow (increase in assets or decrease in liabilities). 7 The item includes Capital transfers and Acquisition/Disposal of nonproduced nonfinancial assets. 8 Preliminary data. Data are provided by direct investment companies reporting to BNB, Agency for Privatization, NSI, Central Depository, banks and others. The 2010 and 2011 data include only banks data on reinvested earnings. 9 On the basis of the reports submitted to the BNB by the enterprises with financial credits received from non-residents. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 10 Mergers and acquisitions are included in this item. 11 Banks, other nonbank financial institutions, insurance companies and pension funds' data. 12 Data on net change of trade credits-assets (paid advances and receivables from suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 13 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data. For data are subject to revisions. 14 Data on net change of trade credits-liabilities (received advances and payables to suppliers), reported to the BNB are included in this item. Due to quarterly reporting data are subject to revisions. 15 Excluding valuation changes due to the exchange rate or price changes, changes associated with the creation of reserve assets (monetarization/demonitarization of gold and the allocation or cancellation of SDRs) and reclassifications. A minus sign (-) denotes an increase in the reserves, a positive sign (+) - a decrease. 21