Eddie s Crayons * The voice of the ADMISI Foreign Exchange Department. Close of Business 29th May Client Release 31st May 2015

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John Miller
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The voice of the ADMISI Foreign Exchange Department Close of Business 29th May 2015 Client Release 31st May 2015 General Release 4th June 2015 Head of Foreign Exchange CONTACT eddie.tofpik@admisi.

Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No.

Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial

1 The voice of the ADMISI Foreign Exchange Department Close of Business 29th May 2015 Client Release 31st May 2015 General Release 4th June 2015 Head of Foreign Exchange CONTACT T F Dealer: ADML IM: ADM FX Yahoo IM: ADMFX.DESK ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere ADM Investor Services International Limited 2014.

GBPUSD TREND? Last month I was inclined to see the market as we approach the General Election, that the uncertainty will test the low 1.4900 s before over 1.5350!. My hopes for sub 1.

2 GBPUSD TREND? Last month I was inclined to see the market as we approach the General Election, that the uncertainty will test the low s before over !. My hopes for sub lasted just two days after my report publication before the market started the bull move up over on the morning following the General Election results, then through Apr, Feb & making new 2015 highs before halting ahead of the minor low from Oct 2013 and the more significant 50% Fib at of the whole Jul 2014 Apr 2015 move and reverting back down. Prices did not halt either on the way up or down at the Long MA which I do find surprising (currently ). We have since mid-may declined and are currently 150 tics higher than at the last time of writing. Needless to say the bullet point above now goes into neutral and we find support at the combination of the Medium MA (currently ) & the Apr May 50% Fib at I have left on for one more month the old Bearish Schiff Pitchfork to give some definition but it really is useless. Topside, well we really don t have much apart from the Apr high , the combi of the Long MA & the 61.8% Fib of the previously mentioned longer term move at However, these would appear to be sketchy resistance at best. I looked at the longer term charts & the Weekly Chart proved interesting in its past actions. Last time I mentioned it had been good at showing market direction and at time of last writing it had shown a possible Bearish Shooting Star. Well this bearish pattern was immediately followed the next week by a Key Reversal Up that negated it. At the moment on that Chart I only have the mildly bearish Two Black Crows pattern! Overall, I will be very interested to see the action as it approaches the 50% Fib support at and whether the possible Golden Cross of the Short/Medium MA (currently ) over the Medium MA will produce anything bullish.

3 EURGBP TREND DOWN? Last time I was going to give it one more month before pushing the bullet point above into neutral I m glad I did! I wrote then about the new highs but not the new high CLOSES since Feb and also of the resistance area along with the Medium MA (currently ) at the time just above The days following were troublesome for the market as it initially tried lower, rejected the downside and then tried higher. We did breach the resistance band as well as close over the Medium MA but only the ONCE! Prices then fell away, through the significant support-turned-resistance until on the 13 th of May we made a Key Reversal Up. This boosted the market back up but only for a week or so when prices again tumbled until last Wednesday when we had another & somewhat clearer KR Up as the market neared the 2015 low in Mar! Since then prices have recovered but they are still a bit of a way from the next real resistance at and the Medium & Long MAs are still descending rapidly. Bullet point stays the same it will be interesting to see how the action gets nears & then again at the dynamic resistance of the Medium MA. Support is mild at & but best ahead of the low. As a final point, I had a quick look at the Monthly Chart that is showing a huge KR Down something to bear in mind!

4 EURUSD TREND DOWN? Last time I was staring at a possible bullish turn around. Regarding the bullet point above and turning it into neutral, I was a hair s breadth from doing so and anticipate I may do so next time.. Well that time is now and I am glad I did not do so. I anticipated a rally into the not so strong resistance between and we duly did so. However, this past month there were two significant days, the first was the 18 th of May. On the previous trading day, Friday the 15 th of May, we had a Key Reversal Up. On Monday the 18 th of May there was no follow through and we had a lower low! This was followed by a declining market that had effectively broken the back of the rally with indicated by the failed KR Up! The next date was Friday the 22 nd of May. We had a KR Down this time and we did follow through until the 61.8% Fib support of the recent Mar May move at Since then prices have reversed back up and last Friday we had the first close back up over the key 50% Fib at So what now? Well, the reason I used last time still stands, three out of four MAs are pointing downwards. Additionally, we are lower than we were last time & though we are over the 50% Fib at & that as support, we still have the Medium MA (currently ) as well as many other lines of resistance above as you can see on the Daily Chart. Only a high, higher than May s with at least two consecutive closes over it would alter the bullet point above into neutral whilst bullish would need two consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently ).

USDJPY TREND UP? Two months ago and again last month I wrote Resistance is the Dec 2014 and also recent high area 121.84 122.02.

5 USDJPY TREND UP? Two months ago and again last month I wrote Resistance is the Dec 2014 and also recent high area We are well above that now with more than the adequate two consecutive closes. Additionally, all four MAs are pointing higher so I have raised the bullet point to mildly bullish in anticipation of possibly raising it again to full bullish next time. Finally, we have a break upwards and the market is heading into territory not seen since the early 21 st Century. Resistance is still at the 2007 high at but is better at , then nothing until Support is basically from 122 downwards. Looking ahead, there is an argument to view the whole action from mid-late 2014 to date as a Halfway Hesitation. If that is the case then two target areas emerge 1) & 2) If on the other hand you look at it conservatively and suggest an Ascending Triangle then the target would be in the area. Neutral would be consecutive closes back below 120 and bearish would only be below the Long MA (currently ).

6 AUDUSD TREND DOWN? It s funny how even though you get the next thing wrong sometimes it all works out for the better. For instance - last time I notably wrote I have the sneaking suspicions that we will be heading sub next week and possibly below shortly thereafter!. Well we dripped below to but the action on the very next session after writing was actually a Key Reversal UP! However, this was followed by an indecisive Spinning Top Pattern which needed the kick of a fix by another KR Up the following week to push prices higher. However, prices took one look over the resistance band and came right back off this time with a KR Down on the 22 nd and possibly on the 26 th of May as well! This has ended up with the month down overall which suits the bullet point above & last time but also sees it approaching the support from current market levels all the way down to that has held up prices this year. At the moment, I do not think there is enough momentum to push down through this support but it will be interesting to watch what will happen if we go below ! So what now? Well, overhead we have a band of resistance which on paper may be good between just like the Maginot line was I hear you say... Beyond that, , & then the significant band On balance, would suggest with basically all MAs pointing down and the failed recent attempt higher that we may try again lower so beyond we have support at , & the hugely important 2001-to-date Uptrend (currently ). It is worth noting that on the Monthly Charts the KR Up in Apr is now a fail in May...also!

USDZAR TREND? From last month s commentary This is one really messy Daily Chart above but that is what you get when you travel sideways and have to finesse the support & resistance levels.

7 USDZAR TREND? From last month s commentary This is one really messy Daily Chart above but that is what you get when you travel sideways and have to finesse the support & resistance levels. All I can really say about the last month is that we went up initially then went down and now are moving back up again ultimately still sideways!. I can only agree with myself that May was much like Apr. I would add that on the Weekly Chart we had a Key Reversal Down three weeks ago but there was no follow through so it is basically a fail. Additionally, two days ago on the Daily Chart above we had a KR Up, this time but as you can see so far no follow through. Basic support (despite the messy Chart) is , , , & Resistance is at (if it should open lower), , & I have a tendency, prompted by previously mentioned failed KR Down on the Weekly Chart to look for the upside as next potential. However, would suggest it may be worth waiting until the Long MA (currently ) arrives closer to the market. Bullet point above obviously stay stays the same.

USDBRL TREND UP? Last month I kept the mildly bullish incentive and stated If it does rally further, what would be important to the market? Well, you have to look at the recent 50% Fib as key at 3.

8 USDBRL TREND UP? Last month I kept the mildly bullish incentive and stated If it does rally further, what would be important to the market? Well, you have to look at the recent 50% Fib as key at , nothing major is going to happen until that is taken out! Then realistically, the & highs!. The first part turned out to be just about right! Prices rallied immediately following my report but failed at & then drifted lower to sideways until the 22 nd of May when they tried once again on the upside but taking four days to get the two consecutive closes over the necessary level. The 22 nd was also coincident as you can see circled above with a Tine crossover along with a previous high, usually a sign that the day may be significant in trading. We have an additional Tine crossover with another previous high in the future on the 17 th of Jun, so it is worth looking at the action in that period as well! On the downside I also made a comment last time Downside, the Medium MA still rules so look to that as a last chance but the 50% Fib at is also important on a closing basis!. The Medium MA is currently & rising. One final comment the Monthly Chart has a Bullish Matching pattern, though I usually do not place as much significance in these longer term charts for such a relatively short term (for them) as the next month s commentary, it does prompt me further to keep the mildly bullish bullet point above the same.

9 USDINR TREND UP This pair is a great technical traders market on the Daily Chart above but first let s look at what happened after my last report. Last time I wrote I ve moved the bullet point above into mildly bullish but I am prepared to move further into full bullish the reason is simply that after a period of a strongly bullish Long MA and mixed other MAs, the others seem to have sorted themselves out with TWO Golden Crosses Short over Medium (sort of expected) but also the Short/Medium up over the Medium! Additionally, we now have THREE consecutive closes over the Middle Tine of the Sep 2014 Jan 2015 Schiff Pitchfork, the first time we have had this in its duration whilst at the same time attempting to have consecutive closes over the key % Fib at AND looking to test the 2014 high at We definitely had a try higher and this is where I say why it is a great tech traders market on the Daily Chart above all these patterns worked 6 th Key Reversal Up, 8 th Bearish Harami, 11 th Bullish Thrusting, 13 th Bearish Harami, 15 th Bullish Harami, 20 th Bearish Dark Cloud Cover pattern, 26 th big Bullish Harami & a possible KR Up, 27 th Dark Cloud Cover Pattern. All these worked on at least the following day. So where now? Well, with all MAs now pointing upwards I have moved the bullet point above to full bullish. Support is key at the 50% Fib at and then at basically ten tic increments until After that we have significant combined Fib & Short/Medium MA (dynamic) support at and after that we have the 50% Fib at & the Medium MA at which will put us into neutral if we have two consecutive closes below. Topside is simpler, still but now also 64.16, & the next meaningful Fib at Finally, I ought to point out that on the Weekly Chart during the week of the 15 th of May we had a KR Down that failed!

10 BTCUSD(BITCOIN) TREND? I will reprise the first part of my commentary from last time Another month of another boring market if there were options on this pair I would be tempted to look at writing out of the money calls & puts just to get some income from past volatility but as there isn t to my knowledge anyway, then I guess we ll stay the same on the bullet point above of neutral!. The bullet point stays the same but I have some additional comments to make. First off, the significant support provided by the recent 50% Fib at I don t think this can be underestimated and perhaps with two consecutive closes underneath we might see some selling emerge. The next is the rapidly approaching 2013-to-date Uptrend (currently ). This will either add to the support of the 50% Fib or if broken on a two consecutive close basis add to the selling pressure. Next are the two Key Reversals during May the first on the 13 th was a KR Down and we did have a move down thereafter to the support of the 50% Fib. The second on the 22 nd was a KR Up and significantly this failed after three days and we have since moved down again to the 50% Fib. Looking ahead, I think there may be significant pressure building up for a move lower, look at the MAs they all seem to be turning down so if things stay the same I will most likely next time turn the bullet point above into slightly bearish. Only consecutive closes over the Long MA (currently ) would negate that. ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere ADM Investor Services International Limited 2014.

11 DEFINITIONS! In the commentary you will note immediately following the currency pair there s a bullet point indicating the TREND. To clarify the comments & notes for this point I ve prepared a short summary. TREND UP - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market has turned upwards/risen & is likely to carry on, usually till at least the next Monthly Foreign Exchange Commentary. Moving Averages (MA s) are pointing higher or have either crossed, formed a Golden Cross or based out. Chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) point higher. No appreciable resistance levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted. TREND UP? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting signs of exhaustion after a recent rally. Prices may be achieving an upside/downside target level or approaching major/strong resistance. Market may have started/completing a rally/recovery and it may be looking indecisive/going sideways or it is too early to tell in the short, medium or long-term charts. Moving Averages (MA s) may point higher or have positive crosses but the picture is not conclusive. Some, but not all chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) indicate higher. Appreciable resistance levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted close to the market. TREND? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting neither a bias for a rally or a decline. Market is either nowhere near or alternatively caught within narrow bands of support/resistance. Moving Averages (MA s) point sideways & indicate no immediate likelihood of crossing. No strong chart patterns or trendlines evident. Sometimes I frankly haven t a clue! TREND DOWN? - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market exhibiting signs of a recovery after a recent fall. Prices may be achieving an upside/downside target level or approaching major/strong support. Market may have started/completing a decline/fall and it may be looking indecisive/going sideways or it is too early to tell in the short, medium or long-term charts. Moving Averages (MA s) may point lower or have negative crosses but the picture is not TREND DOWN - Any one or more of the following may occur! Market has turned down/fallen & is likely to carry on, usually till at least the next Monthly Foreign Exchange Commentary. Moving Averages (MA s) are pointing lower or have either crossed, formed a Dead Cross or topped out. Chart patterns & trendlines (Channel, Support, Andrew s Pitchfork, etc ) point lower. No appreciable support levels (Fibs, Historical, etc ) are noted. THE STORY OF This refers to a deep, long conversation I had with another technician (and also a very dear friend) as to where exactly the neckline on a H+S Top on USDJPY should go to which he uttered in exasperation & seriousness the immortal words....eddie it depends how thick your crayon is!!! Thank you Lou we laughed till I started to hurt & it made my day!, Head of Foreign Exchange Member of the Society of Technical Analysts Member of ACI-UK Affiliate of The Market Technicians Association (U.S.A.) Member of Chartered Institute for Securities & Investment (CISI) ADM Investor Services International Ltd. operates a 24-hour FX trading desk as well as a Futures, CFD s & Equities service. For further details contact me! CONTACT eddie.tofpik@admisi.com fx.desk@admisi.com Dealer : ADML Twitter T (24 Hours) F IM : ADM FX Yahoo IM : ADMFX.DESK ADM Investor Services International Limited is authorised and regulated by The Financial Conduct Authority. Member of The London Stock Exchange. Registered office: 4th Floor Millennium Bridge House, 2 Lambeth Hill, London EC4V 3TT. Registered in England No a subsidiary of Archer Daniels Midland Company. Risk Warning: Investments in Equities, CFDs, Futures, Options, Derivatives and Foreign Exchange can fluctuate in value, investors should therefore be aware that they may not realise the initial amount invested, and indeed may incur additional liabilities. These Investments may entail above average financial risk of loss, and investors should therefore carefully consider whether their financial circumstances and investment experience permit them to invest and, if necessary, seek the advice of an independent Financial Advisor. Some services described are not available to certain customers due to regulatory constraints either in the United Kingdom or elsewhere ADM Investor Services International Limited 2014.

Forex Sentiment Report Q2 FORECAST WEAK AS LONG AS BELOW April

Forex Sentiment Report Q2 FORECAST WEAK AS LONG AS BELOW April Forex Sentiment Report 08 April 2015 www.ads-securities.com Q2 FORECAST WEAK AS LONG AS BELOW 1.1200 Targets on a break of 1.1534/35: 1.1740/50 1.1870/75 1.2230/35 Targets on a break of 1.0580/70: 1.0160