Statistical Bulletin

Transcription

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2 Statistical Bulletin of the Central Bank of Armenia is an annual periodical that presents data on monetary, fiscal, external and real sectors as well as main indicators of financial organizations and of the payment and settlement system. Description of data contained in this Statistical Bulletin are presented in the section Methodological notes. For questions and suggestions, please contact The CBA Statistics Department: Telephone: (374 10) Facsimile: (374 10) This Statistical Bulletin as well as the timetable for publication of statistical data are available on the CBA website: 3

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4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Macroeconomic indicators... 6 Real sector indicators... 8 External sector indicators State budget indicators Monetary indicators Financial market Loans and deposits Main indicators of financial institutions Payment and settlement system Methodological notes

5 MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS million AMD I n d i c a t o r s Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual I. Real sector Gross domestic product (GDP) real growth (%) real growth (cumulative, %) GDP deflator (cumulative, %) GDP per capita 2 (in drams) real growth (%) 1, GDP per employee 2 (in drams) real growth (%) 1, Gross national income (GNI) real growth (%) 1, GNI per capita 2 (in drams) real growth (%) 1, Gross national disposable income (GNDI) real growth (%) 1, GNDI per capita 2 (in drams) real growth (%) 1, Labor market (cumulative) Average nominal monthly wage per employee (in drams) Economically active population (thousand persons) Employed in economy (thousand persons) Officially registered unemployed (thousand persons) Unemployment rate (%) Inflation (%) To the same period of the previous year To the end of the previous period To the previous period (cumulative) II. Fiscal sector Income and grants, total Tax, non-tax and capital income o/w: tax income Expenses, total Budget deficit (-) / surplus (+) share in GDP (%)

6 M A C R O E C O N O M I C I N D I C A T O R S III. Monetary sector Broad money Base money Money multiplier Financial market (%) CBA refinancing ( repo) rate Government bond yield Interbank rate Bank reference rate IV. External sector AMD/USD exchange rate end of period period average Armenian dram real effective exchange rate (1997=100) Gross international reserves (million USD) Gross international reserves (million AMD) Exports (FOB, mln US dollars) Imports (CIF, mln US dollars) Trade balance (mln US dollars) Current account ratio in GDP (%) Current account ratio in GDP (less official transfers) (%) Real growth is presented against the same period of the previous year. 2 According to the CBA estimates, based on the National Statistics Service of Armenia data. 3 As of the end of the period. 4 According to preliminary estimations by the CBA. 5 Real sector and balance of payments data have been adjusted by the National Statistics Service of Armenia (NSSA). 7

7 REAL SECTOR INDICATORS (based on data provided by the NSSA) GDP CALCULATION BY PRODUCTION METHOD I n d icators 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Current prices (million AMD) Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishery Construction Activities related to provision of services Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) Taxes on products (less subsidies) Gross domestic product Volume index (presented against the same period of the previous year %) Industry Agriculture, forestry, fishery Construction Activities related to provision of services Financial intermediation services indirectly measured (FISIM) Taxes on products (less subsidies) Gross domestic product GDP CALCULATION BY EXPENDITURES METHOD I n d icators 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Current prices (million AMD) Final consumption expenditures Gross capital formation Net export of goods and services Statistical discrepancy Gross domestic product Volume index (presented against the same period of the previous year %) Final consumption expenditures Gross capital formation Net export of goods and services Gross domestic product

8 R E A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S MAIN SECTOR OUTPUT million AMD I n d icators Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual 1. Industry volume index o/w: a) Mining industry, operation of open mines volume index b) Processing industry volume index c) Production and distribution of electricity, gas, steam and quality air volume index d) Water supply, sewage, waste management and recycling volume index Agriculture volume index o/w: a) Plant growing volume index b) Animal breeding volume index Construction real growth rate Retail trade turnover volume index Services volume index Freight turnover of general purpose transport, (million tons/km) volume index The indicators of sectors volume indices are presented against the same period of the previous year and are cumulative. 2 Since January sector indicators have been calculated based on NACE Rev 2, that is why the respective indicators for 2009 are missing in industry and services. 3 The data have been adjusted by the NSSA. 9

9 R E A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S PRICE INDICES % Item 2009 D J F M A M J J A S O N D (to the same period of the previous year, cumulative) GDP deflator Producer price index of industrial production Sale price index of agricultural products Price index of capital construction Freight transportation tariff index Consumer price index (to the previous December) Consumer price index o/w: food product price index non-food product price index service tariffs index INFLATION % P e r i o d (to the previous month) January February March April May June July August September October November December (to the end of the previous period) Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Annual (to December of the previous year) Annual (to the previous year)

10 R E A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S CORE INFLATION 1 % Period (to the previous month) January February March April May June July August September October November December (to the same month of previous year) January February March April May June July August September October November December According to the CBA estimates based on the NSSA data. 11

11 Æ ð ² Î R² EÜ A L Ð ² SîEì C² TÌOÆ R òi ànôdò I² CÜAÆTÞOÜ Rº S ð GDP expenditure components dynamics % Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final consumption expenditures Gross capital formation Net exports Inflation (to previous month, %) J F M A M J J A S O N D J 08 F M A M J J A S ú N D J 09 Inflation Inflation and core inflation (to previous month, %) F M A M J J A S ú N D J 10 Core inflation F M A M J J A S O N D Unemployment rate and real GDP growth (%) H H H H H Real GDP growth, cumulative Unemployment rate, cumulative (right-hand scale) 12

12 R E A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 Nominal GDP and broad money growth (to previous quarter, %) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Nominal GDP growth (left-hand scale) Broad money growth (period average, right-hand scale) Inflation and broad money growth (to previous quarter, %) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q Broad money growth to previous quarter (period average, left-hand scale) Inflation change to previous quarter (right-hand scale) Seasonally adjusted GDP* and broad money (million AMD) Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q Seasonally adjusted nominal GDP (left-hand scale) Seasonally adjusted broad money (period average, right-hand scale) * Seasonal adjustment of nominal GDP is done using Census X12-Additive method of EViews 4.1 program package. Diffusion economic indices, balances of answers Q1 07 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 09 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 10 Q2 Q3 Q4 Economic activity Business climate Consumer confidence 13

13 EXTERNAL SECTOR INDICATORS 1 FOREIGN TRADE I t e m Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Exports (FOB, million USD) Imports (CIF, million USD) Trade balance (million USD) Trade balance ratio in GDP (%) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA (analytical presentation) million USD I n d i c a t o r s Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Current account Goods Exports (credit) Exports (FOB) Other Imports (debit) Imports (FOB) Other Services credit debit Income credit debit Current transfers credit debit Capital account Financial account Direct investment (net) Portfolio investment (net) Equity securities Debt securities Other investment (net) Monetary authorities General government Banks Other sectors Errors and omissions (net) (Overall balance) Financial items Reserve assets Use of fund credit Exceptional financing The data provided by the NSSA are preliminary. 14

14 ² E ðxî T² EøRÆNÜ A L Ð ² SîEì C² TÌOÆ R òi ànôdò I² CÜAÆTÞOÜ Rº S ð INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA million USD I n d i c a t o r s Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Net investment position Assets Direct investment abroad Portfolio investment Other investment Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other assets Reserve assets Liabilities Direct investment abroad Portfolio investment Other investment Trade credits Loans Currency and deposits Other liabilities EXTERNAL DEBT OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA million USD I n d i c a t o r s Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 State authorities Monetary authorities Banks Other sectors Direct investments: inter-company lending Gross external debt

15 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S DRAM NOMINAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN ,2 P e r i o d January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual average DRAM REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE IN ,2 P e r i o d January February March April May June July August September October November December Annual average Starting January 2009, the calculation methodology has changed as it now considers total foreign trade volumes of the main 11 partner countries, using weights in In August 2009 the whole series has been revised as 2005 (2000 previously) was taken a base year for inflation of partner countries included in calculation. 3 According to preliminary estimations by the CBA. 16

16 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S 1400 million USD Exports and imports dynamics Q1 03 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 04 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 05 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 06 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q Exports (FOB) Imports (CIF) Trade balance = 100 Real effective dram exchange rate* (growth denotes appreciation) 70 Q1 03 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 04 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 08 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Q2 Q3 Q * Q4 based on preliminary estimations by the CBA. 17

17 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S INDIVIDUAL REMITTANCES VIA THE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2008-, BY COUNTRY thousand USD Country Q1 Q2 Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Russia USA Ukraine Kazakhstan Germany Spain France UAE China Turkey Other Total Country Q3 Q4 Total Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Russia USA Ukraine Kazakhstan Germany Spain France UAE China Turkey Other Total

18 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S INDIVIDUAL NON-COMMERCIAL REMITTANCES VIA THE BANKING SYSTEM IN 2008-, BY COUNTRY thousand USD Country Q1 Q2 Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Russia USA Ukraine Kazakhstan Germany Spain France UAE China Turkey Other Total Country Q3 Q4 Total Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Inflow Outflow Net inflow Russia USA Ukraine Kazakhstan Germany Spain France UAE China Turkey Other Total

19 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S J 07 thousand USD Inflow of non-commercial remittances, F M A M J J A S O N D J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASOND USA Russia Other Outflow of non-commercial remittances, thousand USD J 07 FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND USA Russia Other 20

20 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION IN million USD 2009 Change Indicators Due to transactions Due to price changes Due to exchange rate changes Due to other adjustments Total change Assets Direct investment abroad Equity capital Reinvested profit Other capital Portfolio investment Shares Debt liabilities Other investment Loans Long-term Short-term Available funds and deposits Cash Deposits Long-term Short-term Other assets Liabilities Direct investment in Armenia Equity capital Reinvested profit Other capital Portfolio investment Shares Debt liabilities Bonds Money market instruments Other investment Loans Long-term Short-term Available funds and deposits Long-term Short-term Other liabilities Long-term Short-term Investment position, net

21 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S COMMERCIAL BANKS AND CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS FOREIGN ASSETS AND LIABILITIES BY CURRENCY 1,2 million USD Indicators 2009 Currency AMD USD EUR RUR Other Total Assets Equity shares Debt securities Cash Loans, including overdrafts and credit cards Deposits Other Liabilities Equity shares Debt securities Loans, including overdrafts and credit cards Deposits Other Net position Indicators Currency AMD USD EUR RUR Other Total Assets Equity shares Debt securities Cash Loans, including overdrafts and credit cards Deposits Other Liabilities Equity shares Debt securities Loans, including overdrafts and credit cards Deposits Other Net position Unlike commercial banks NFA in broad money, Equity shares in section of liabilities and non-convertible currency of commercial banks are also included. 2 Since the first quarter of 2009 some principles of instrument classification have been adjusted, so re-invested profit is included in equity shares. 22

22 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES OF THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA 1 million USD Indicators D J F M 1 A M J 1 J A S 1 O N D 1 Gross international reserves (excluding privatization account) Gross international reserves Gold SDR holdings with the IMF Reserve position with the IMF Foreign exchange The CBA closing entries are included. million USD J 07 FMAMJJ ASONDJFMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJJASOND Foreign exchange International reserves of Armenia SDR holdings with IMF 23

23 E X T E R N A L S E C T O R I N D I C A T O R S FOREIGN LIABILITIES OF THE CBA 1 million USD Indicators D J F M 1 A M J 1 J A S 1 O N D 1 Gross foreign liabilities IMF credit SDR allocation Other loans Other liabilities The CBA closing entries are included. million USD 700 Foreign liabilities of the CBA J 07 FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND IMF credit SDR allocation Other loans Other liabilities 24

24 STATE BUDGET INDICATORS STATE BUDGET INDICATORS SUMMARY 1 million AMD State budget 2008 actual 2009 actual Q1 actual Q2 actual Q3 actual Q4 actual Annual actual State budget revenues and grants State budget revenues Tax revenues and duties Other revenues Social contributions Grants State budget expenditures Current expenditures Transactions with non-financial assets Budget deficit (-) surplus (+) Budget deficit financing sources Domestic financing External financing Source: the NSSA monthly statistical bulletins The Socio-Economic Situation in Armenia. 25

25 S T A T E B U D G E T I N D I C A T O R S State budget revenue structure, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Tax revenues and state duties Other revenues Social security contributions Grants State budget expenditures structure, % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Current expenditures Operations with non-financial assets 26

26 S T A T E B U D G E T I N D I C A T O R S THE CENTRAL BANK RELATIONS WITH THE TREASURY million AMD Claims on the Government Accounts and deposits of the Government Period Government securities Total Central government accounts and deposits in drams Central government accounts in FX PIU funds in drams PIU funds in FX Total Net claims on the Government 2009 December January February March April May June July August September October November December The CBA closing entries are included million AMD CBA net claims on Government J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

27 MONETARY INDICATORS MONETARY AGGREGATES million AMD Period Monetary base Currency in circulation Demand deposits in drams M1 Time deposits in drams M2 Deposits in foreign currency M2X 2009 December January February March April May June July August September October November December

28 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S Monetary base by components million AMD J FMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASONDJFMAMJ JASOND Currency outside CBA Required reserves in dram Required reserves in foreign currency Other accounts million AMD Structure of broad money 0 J 07 FMAMJJ ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJ ASOND Currency in circulation Demand deposits in dram Time deposits in dram Deposits in foreign currency Share of currency in circulation in broad money % J MM J 04 S N J MM J 05 S N J MM J 06 S N J MM J 07 S N J MM J 08 S N J MM J 09 S N J MM J 10 S N Share of currency in circulation in dram broad money % J MM J 04 SN J M M J 05 S N J M M J 06 S N J M M J 07 S N J MM J 08 SN J M M J 09 S N J M M J 10 S N 29

29 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S million AMD Broad money and dram broad money dynamics 0 J 07 F M A M J J A S O N D J F MAMJ J A SON D J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND Broad money Dram broad money Level of intermediation in the banking system (share of deposits in broad money) 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% J 07 FMAMJ J ASOND J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJ ASONDJFMAMJ JASOND Level of dollarization (share of foreign currency deposits in broad money) 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% J FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ JASONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJJ ASOND % Level of dollarization (share of foreign currency deposits in total deposits) 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% J 07 FMAMJ J A SONDJ FMAMJ J ASONDJ FMAMJ J A SONDJ FMAMJ J ASOND

30 ð ² Ø ² ì M ² OðNÎ E² TÚAÆRÜ Y ò I ànôdò I² CÜAÆTÞOÜ Rº S ð SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MONETARY AGGREGATES (million AMD) P e riod Monetary base Currency in circulation M1 M2 M2X 2005 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December

31 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S 2008 January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December

32 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S million AMD Actual and seasonally adjusted levels of monetary base J 05 M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Actual series of monetary base Seasonally adjusted series of monetary base million AMD Actual and seasonally adjusted levels of currency outside the banking system J 05 M M J S N J 06 M M J S N J 07 M M J S N J 08 M M J S N J 09 Actual series of currency outside the banking system M M J S N J M M J S N 10 Seasonally adjusted series of currency outside the banking system million AMD Actual and seasonally adjusted levels of dram broad money J 05 M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N Actual series of dram broad money Seasonally adjusted series of dram broad money J 05 million AMD Actual and seasonally adjusted levels of broad money M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J Actual series of broad money Seasonally adjusted series of broad money S N 33

33 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S THE CENTRAL BANK SURVEY million AMD I n d i c a t o r s D J - 10 F M 1 A M J 1 J A S 1 O N D 1 (balance at the end of period) NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES NET DOMESTIC ASSETS Government Banks o/w: repo agreements CBA foreign currency swap (FX attraction) deposits (-) reverse repo (-) CBA foreign currency swap (FX allocation) (-) Securities issued by the CBA (-) Other assets, net MONETARY BASE Currency outside the CBA Required reserves (in dram) Required reserves (in foreign currency) Other accounts Other accounts (in dram) Other accounts (in foreign currency) (change to the previous period) NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES NET DOMESTIC ASSETS Government Banks o/w: repo agreements deposits (-) Securities issued by the CBA (-) Other assets, net MONETARY BASE Currency outside the CBA Required reserves (in dram) Required reserves (in foreign currency) Other accounts Other accounts (in dram) Other accounts (in foreign currency) (percentage change to the previous period) NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES NET DOMESTIC ASSETS Government Banks Securities issued by the CBA (-) Other assets, net MONETARY BASE Currency outside the CBA Required reserves (in dram) Required reserves (in foreign currency) Other accounts The CBA closing entries are included. 34

34 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S COMMERCIAL BANKS SURVEY million AMD I n d i c a t o r s D -09 J- 10 F M A M J J A S O N D NFA (in convertible currency) Foreign assets in convertible currency Foreign liabilities in convertible currency (-) Foreign liabilities in dram (-) NDA Net claims on Government Claims on Government Liabilities to Government (-) Net claims on the CBA Claims on the CBA Liabilities to the CBA (-) Economy Enterprises In dram In foreign currency Securities Households In dram In foreign currency Non-profit organizations In dram In foreign currency Other financial institutions In dram In foreign currency Other assets, net Foreign assets in dram Foreign assets (in non-convertible currency) Foreign liabilities (in non-convertible currency) (-) Investments in equity Interbank claims Other assets Interbank liabilities (-) Bonds issued (-) Capital accounts (-) Other liabilities (-) DEPOSITS Deposits in dram Demand deposits Time deposits Deposits in foreign currency Demand deposits Time deposits

35 M O N E T A R Y I N D I C A T O R S CREDIT ORGANIZATIONS SURVEY million AMD I n d i c a t o r s D -09 J- 10 F M A M J J A S O N D NFA (in convertible currency) Foreign assets in convertible currency Foreign liabilities in convertible currency (-) Foreign liabilities in dram (-) NDA Net claims on Government Net claims on commercial banks Claims on commercial banks Liabilities to commercial banks (-) Economy Enterprises In dram In foreign currency Securities Households In dram In foreign currency Non-profit organizations In dram In foreign currency Other financial institutions In dram In foreign currency Other assets, net Foreign assets in dram Foreign assets (in non-convertible currency) Foreign liabilities (in non-convertible currency) (-) Cash dram in vault Investments in equity Claims on credit organizations Other assets Liabilities to credit organizations (-) Bonds issued (-) Capital accounts (-) Other liabilities (-) NFA (in convertible currency) Foreign assets in convertible currency BORROWINGS Borrowings in dram Demand Time Borrowings in foreign currency Demand Time