Balance of Payments in Poland for Q4 2017

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1 Balance of Payments in Poland for Q Warsaw, 30 March 2018 The quarterly bop has been prepared based on monthly and quarterly information reported by Polish residents involved in transactions with non-residents, public statistics surveys as well as administrative data sources. This version of bop is preliminary and may be subject to further revisions. The current and capital account The balance on the current and capital account was positive and amounted to PLN 14.3 billion. In Q4 2017, the current and capital account balance equalled 2.5% of the GDP. Graph 1. Current and capital account, PLN billion The positive balance of the current account amounted to PLN 0.1 billion and improved by PLN 1.1 billion when compared with the corresponding quarter of This balance was influenced by: positive balances of services (PLN 21.1 billion) and secondary income (PLN 1.1 billion) as well as negative balance of primary income (PLN 19.3 billion) and trade in goods (PLN 2.8 billion) The ratio of the current account balance to GDP was positive and stood at 0.02%. 1 / 7

2 Compared to the corresponding period of 2016, the current account balance changed from negative to positive. The surplus in the current account was mainly due to improvement in the balance of services (by PLN 4.8 billion) as well as balance of secondary income (by PLN 3.6 billion). The increase in the negative balance of primary income (by PLN 2.4 billion) and the decrease in the balance of trade in goods (by PLN 4.9 billion) negatively influenced the current account balance. The capital account balance was positive and amounted to PLN 14.2 billion, an improvement when compared with the corresponding period of the previous year, was resulted from increased inflow of EU structural funds. In Q inflow from UE funds amounted to PLN 14.6 billion and was higher by PLN 4.5 billion when compared with Q Trade in goods In Q4 2017, exports were estimated at PLN billion, and imports at PLN billion. The growth in exports of goods (up by PLN 15.9 billion, i.e. 7.9%) resulted from increased sale of medicines, food as well as automotive industry products abroad. The increase in imports (up by PLN 20.8 billion, i.e. 10.4%) was largely due to the increase in imports of fuels and raw materials, passenger cars and one of transactions related to the purchase of aircrafts. Increase was also reported imports of machinery and equipment for industry. Trade in goods deficit in Q stood at PLN 2.8 billion. In the corresponding quarter of 2016, it was positive and amounted PLN 2.1 billion. International trade in services Exports on services provided by Polish entities to foreigners amounted to PLN 60.1 billion, and imports on services purchased from non-residents to PLN 39.0 billion. When compared with Q4 2016, exports on services were higher by PLN 6.6 billion i.e. 12.3% and imports increased by PLN 1.8 billion i.e. 4.7%. In Q4 2017, the balance on services was positive and amounted to PLN 21.1 billion. The figure was determined by positive balances on other services which amounted to PLN 9.7 billion (up by PLN 3.0 billion when compared with Q4 2016), transportation in the amount of PLN 7.2 billion (up by PLN 1.2 billion) and surplus in travel, which stood at PLN 4.2 billion (up by PLN 0.7 billion). Primary income In Q4 2017, the negative balance on primary income amounted to PLN 19.3 billion and was influenced by the negative balance of investment income (PLN 16.9 billion) and compensation of employees (PLN 2.4 billion). The negative balance on investment income was driven by foreign direct investors income amounting to PLN 16.4 billion down by PLN 1.3 billion when compared with the corresponding period of Direct investment 2 / 7

3 income consisted of: reinvested earnings of PLN 9.9 billion, dividends in the amount of PLN 3.7 billion, and interest on debt instruments in the amount PLN 2.8 billion. The negative balance on primary income was also influenced by non-residents income on portfolio investments in Poland (i.e. interest on debt securities issued by Polish entities and dividends paid). These amounted to PLN 3.5 billion down by 6.2% when compared with Q Non-residents income on other investments stood at PLN 1.9 billion down by 3.9% when compared with Q Secondary income of other sectors The secondary income balance of other sectors was positive and amounted to PLN 2.1 billion. Credits on secondary income amounted to PLN 4.8 billion, of which PLN 2.9 billion were workers remittances. Debits stood at PLN 2.7 billion. EU transfers In Q4 2017, the inflow of funds from the EU, as shown in balance of payments, amounted to PLN 18.2 billion. Inflow in the current account amounted to PLN 3.6 billion, of which inflow shown in primary income amounted to PLN 0.8 billion (mostly under the Common Agricultural Policy) and in secondary income it amounted to PLN 2.8 billion (mostly under European Social Fund). The inflow of capital transfers stood at PLN 14.6 billion (under European Regional Development Fund PLN 8.2 billion and Cohesion Fund PLN 6.4 billion). In the same period, Poland s membership premiums paid to the EU budget amounted to PLN 4.5 billion. As a result of these transactions, the balance of EU transfers in Q was positive and amounted to PLN 13.7 billion. Financial account (net assets) The inflow of capital from non-resident investment in Poland (increase in liabilities) amounted to PLN 15.6 billion. In the same period, Polish investment abroad increased by PLN 21.9 billion (outflow of capital). Foreign investment (liabilities) The balance of foreign investment in Poland was primarily influenced by capital inflow from direct and portfolio investment. The balance of direct investment on the liabilities side was positive and amounted to PLN 11.1 billion. It was influenced by inflow of equity capital (PLN 5.2 billion), reinvestment of earnings (PLN 9.9 billion) and outflow of capital against debt instruments (PLN 4.0 billion). 3 / 7

4 In Q4 2017, balance on foreign portfolio investment was positive and amounted to PLN 3.8 billion and was the result of an investment inflow of PLN 2.2 billion to equity securities and the inflow of capital investment in Polish debt securities, amounted to PLN 1.6 billion. The outflow of investment from debt securities issued by the State Treasury (PLN 2.7 billion) accompanied purchase of bonds issued by Polish banks (PLN 4.3 billion). Graph 2. Foreign investment in Poland, PLN billion (liabilities) The balance of other foreign investment was positive and amounted to PLN 0.7 billion. This item was influenced by an increase in liabilities of other sectors, up by PLN 5.7 billion (mainly due to new loans received and trade credits) and decrease in liabilities of the banking sector down by PLN 3.7 billion (mostly as a result of repayment of loans received from other entities within the capital group and from international organisations). Resident investment abroad (assets) The balance of investment by residents abroad was positive mostly as a result of transactions registered in direct investment, other investment, and official reserve assets. The balance of direct investment assets was positive and amounted to PLN 10.6 billion (due to increase in assets against debt instruments standing at PLN 7.3 billion and increase in assets against equity amounting to PLN 3.3 billion). In the same period, Polish entities (mostly investment funds and pension funds) decreased their assets in the form of foreign equity securities by PLN 2.1 billion. On the other hands, banks and pension and insurance funds invested PLN 1.2 billion in debt securities. 4 / 7

5 The balance of other Polish investment abroad was positive and amounted to PLN 7.8 billion. This was affected by transactions executed by the banking sector, whose assets in the form of deposits in banks abroad and loans extended to non-residents increased by PLN 4.9 billion. Assets of Polish enterprise sector due to trade credits extended and other assets increased by PLN 3.5 billion which had a positive impact on the balance of other Polish investment. In Q transactions recorded under official reserve assets amounted to PLN 5.5 billion and was influenced by NBP s own and client transactions (mainly the Ministry of Finance and the European Commission). Additional information on the balance of payments Balance of payments data for February 2018 will be released on 13 April Balance of payments data for Q will be released on 29 June Time series of the quarterly balance of payments beginning with Q are available at the NBP website. Time series of the monthly balance of payments beginning with January 2004 are available at the NBP website. Analytical tables of the quarterly balance of payments beginning with Q are available at the NBP website. Time series of the monthly stock of official reserve assets beginning with January 1998 are available at the NBP website. 5 / 7

6 Balance of Payments */ mn PLN IV Q 17 - III Q 17 IV Q 17 - IV Q 16 IV Q III Q IV Q Change Dynamics Change Dynamics Current Account Balance on goods Goods: exports ,1% ,9% Goods: imports ,9% ,4% Balance on Services Services: Credit ,8% ,3% Services: Debit ,2% ,7% Balance on Primary Income Primary income: credit ,2% ,2% Primary income: debit ,7% ,7% Balance on Secondary Income Secondary income: credit ,8% ,3% Secondary income: debit ,0% ,3% Capital Account Capital account: credit ,8% ,3% Capital account: debit ,2% ,7% Financial account Direct investment - assets Equity and investment fund shares Debt instruments Direct investment - liabilities Equity and investment fund shares Debt instruments Portfolio investment - assets Equity securities Debt securities Portfolio investment - liabilities Equity securities Debt securities Other investment - assets Monetary authorities General government MFIs (excluding monetary authorities) Other sectors Other investment - liabilities Monetary authorities General government MFIs (excluding monetary authorities) Other sectors Financial derivatives Oficial reserves assets Net Errors and Omissions */ Preliminary data 6 / 7

7 Balance of Payments */ mn EUR III Q 17 - II Q 17 III Q 17 - III Q 16 III Q II Q III Q Change Dynamics Change Dynamics Current Account Balance on goods Goods: exports ,8% ,5% Goods: imports ,5% ,1% Balance on Services Services: Credit ,4% ,1% Services: Debit ,8% ,3% Balance on Primary Income Primary income: credit ,6% ,8% Primary income: debit ,3% ,1% Balance on Secondary Income Secondary income: credit ,7% ,8% Secondary income: debit ,6% ,1% Capital Account Capital account: credit ,6% ,2% Capital account: debit ,4% ,7% Financial account Direct investment - assets Equity and investment fund shares Debt instruments Direct investment - liabilities Equity and investment fund shares Debt instruments Portfolio investment - assets Equity securities Debt securities Portfolio investment - liabilities Equity securities Debt securities Other investment - assets Monetary authorities General government MFIs (excluding monetary authorities) Other sectors Other investment - liabilities Monetary authorities General government MFIs (excluding monetary authorities) Other sectors Financial derivatives Oficial reserves assets Net Errors and Omissions */ Preliminary data 7 / 7

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