MACROECONOMIC REVIEW OF BELARUS. January- June 2016

Transcription

1 MACROECONOMC REVEW OF BELARUS January- June 1 1

2 CONTENTS Abbreviations. REAL SECTOR 1.1. Economic growth 1.. Labor market 1.3. Wages and consumer demand 1.. nvestments nflation 1. FSCAL SECTOR.1. Government Budget 11. MONETARY SECTOR 3.1. Monetary base Multiplier and money velocity Monetary supply The resource base of commercial banks Financial depth of the economy Borrowing in the economy Foreign exchange market 19 V. EXTERNAL SECTOR.1. Balance of payments.. Foreign trade 1.3. External conditions and diversification of exports.. External debt 3.. Creditworthiness.. Real exchange rate and price competitiveness.7. Foreign-exchange reserves Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

3 CONTENTS V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS.1. nternal sectoral imbalances 7.. The linkages between monetary and external sectors.3 Separate financial flows between the National Bank, banks and Ministry of Finance 3. External imbalance 31 Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 3

4 Abbreviations: annualized in annual terms BoP Beginning of the Period CT Cumulative Total cp in comparable prices EoP End of the Period M/M Month over comparable Month of previous year MoM Month on previous Month Q/Q Quarter over comparable Quarter of previous year QoQ Quarter on previous Quarter s.a. seasonally adjusted rp in real (constant) prices YoY Year on previous Year 17F Forecast Acronyms: CB Commercial banks CP Consumer price index FCE Final consumption expenditure GDP Gross domestic product GED Gross external debt GovED General government debt RA nternational reserve assets NED Net external debt NFA Net foreign assets NULC Nominal unit labour cost PP Producer price index RULC Real unit labour costs SDEO Stock of debt and equity outstanding ULC Unit labour costs VA Value added Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

5 V Q1 Q3 7Q1 7Q3 Q1 Q3 9Q1 9Q3 1Q1 1Q3 11Q1 11Q3 1Q1 1Q3 13Q1 13Q3 1Q1 1Q3 1Q1 1Q3 1Q1. REAL SECTOR 1.1 Economic growth %, Q/Q -3, %, Q/Q -3, Actual GDP growth GDP trend (HP filter) Cyclical component Actual GDP growth GDP trend (HP filter) until 1Q GDP trend (HP filter) GDP trend (HP filter) until 1Q1 Fig. 1.1 Trend and cycle of real GDP Fig. 1. Trend of GDP calculated to the last quarter %, Q/Q 3, -3, %, MoM, CT, in 11 prices 111 %, BoP Actual GDP growth Actual GDP growth, q/q, Poland GDP trend (HP filter) GDP trend (HP filter), Poland ndustrial output Product stocks (right scale) Fig. 1.3 Trend of real GDP of Belarus and Poland Fig. 1. ndustrial output and product stocks Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

6 Share of vacancies in the number of employed,%. REAL SECTOR 1. Labor market,,9,,7,,,,3,,1, mln.pers., F 17F 1F Labour force Dependency ratio %, QoQ, CT Fig. 1. Labour force and dependency ratio Fig. 1. Number of employed in the economy 1, 1,,, -, -1, -1, %, QoQ -,7-1, Fig. 1.7 Employment growth rate 1,3 1, , 1,1 1,1 11 1, 1,,9,9 1, 1 9,,7,7 1,,,,,,,,,, 7, 7, Share of economically active population applying for the employment assistahce,% Fig. 1. The Beveridge curve for Belarusian labor market, -1 y. Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

7 V V V V. REAL SECTOR 1. Labor market th. %,, 3, 1, th.pers. th.pers V M, Number of workers employed in new jobs 1 Share of workers employed in new jobs, in total number of employed, % (right scale) Number of hires Number of dismissals Hires-to-dismissals balance Fig. 1.9 Dynamics of employed in new jobs Fig. 1.1 The ratio of hired and dismissed workers th.pers %, CT Employees granted vacation at the employer's initiative Employees working part-time at the employer's initiative Fig Employees in forced vacation and part-time work Ratio between labor productivity growth and real growth (cumulative within year) Growth rate of employment Fig. 1.1 The ratio of labor productivity qrowth to real wages Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 7

8 V V V V V X X X X V V V V. REAL SECTOR 1.3 Wages and consumer demand USD USD Real wages (June 1 г. = 1) Nominal wages Real wages (December 11 = 1) Nominal wages Fig Dynamics of real wages in USD Fig Dynamics of real wages in USD BYN , 1, 1,3 1, 1,1 1,, Real wages (December 11 = 1) Nominal wages Fig Dynamics of nominal and real average monthly wages Real Wages (MoM, CT, Dec. 11 = 1) Real GDP Fig. 1. Dynamics of real wages and GDP Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January- June 1

9 Q 1 V, 11, 1,. REAL SECTOR 1. nvestments mln. BYN, s.a., in 1 prices bln. USD, CT V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X Fig. 1.1 Fixed capital investment in real terms Fig. 1. Fixed capital investment in current USD,, 39,3 37, % of GDP, 3,3,,1, -,1 -,, 1,1 -,1 -, ncremental capital output ratio, COR Gross capital formation, % of GDP (right scale) Fig. 1.3 ncremental capital output ratio (right scale) and gross capital formation (left scale) Fig. 1. Fixed capital investment by source of financing Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January- June 1 9

10 V V. REAL SECTOR 1. nflation %, М/М, annualized 17, 1, 7, %, M/M, annualized 1,1 1, 1, 11, CP in Belarus CP in Russia CP in Kazakhstan CP PP Prices in construction Prices for freight transportation Fig nflation in Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan Fig. 1. CP by kind of prices %, MoM, CT, Dec = 1 11,3 11,7 11, 1,1 %, M/M, annualized 111, mln. BYN % X V V V V V X X X X Base CP (right scale) Subsidies to enterprises compensating losses of price government regulation Consolidated budget expenditures Fig. 1.7 GDP Deflator and CP Fig Share of subsidies covering losses of price regulation Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January- June 1 1

11 . FSCAL SECTOR.1 Government Budget % of GDP, СТ 31, % of GDP, СТ, V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X Fig..1 Revenues of consolidated budget Fig.. - Expenditures of consolidated budget 1 1 % of GDP, CT 3, V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X % of GDP , 1 1,9 ncome tax Profit tax Property tax VAT Excises Taxes on international trade 9,1,1 3, Fig..3 - Surplus (+) / deficit (-) of consolidated budget Fig.. - Tax revenues to GDP ratio Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 11

12 - - -V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X - - -V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X - - -V - - -V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X - - -V -V -V -V -V -X -X -X -X - - -V Government Budget % of GDP 7, Nationwide expenditures 1, 3, , Fig.. Structure of consolidated budget expenditures 3,9,9 National economy Healthcare Education,, % of GDP, СТ. FSCAL SECTOR Revenues Expenditures Deficit (-), surplus (+) Fig.. The Social Security Fund balance % of GDP, СТ mln. BYN, in 11 prices Revenues Expenditures Deficit (-), surplus (+) Fig..7 The central government budget balance Fig.. The size of the state support provided to legal entitles Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

13 V V. MONETARY SECTOR 3.1 Monetary base 1 %, МоМ, СТ 11 11, , 9 X V V V V V X X X X 1 1 Fig. 3.1 Monetary base 1% 9% % 7% % % % 3% % Cash in circulation (М) 1% % Deposits of the other sectors Banks' deposits Cash in banks' offices The balance of correspondent accounts of banks Fund of required reserves Сash in circulation (M) Fig Monetary base structure dynamics mln. BYN mln. BYN in 7 prices Withdrawal Support Fig Regulation of the banking system liquidity by National Bank Fig. 3. Balance of correspondent accounts Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 13

14 V V. MONETARY SECTOR 3. Multiplier and money velocity 1 as % of total 17 %, MoM, CT 9 Foreign currency broad money(м3) Rubel broad money (М3) M1 M M3 Fig. 3. Dollarization of the money supply Fig. 3. Money velocity 3, 3, 3, 3,,,,,, s.a. s.a. 7,7,1, 7, 7,,,,,,, 3, 3, 1% 9% % 7% % % % 3% % 1% % Ruble money multiplier (M*) Broad money multiplier (M3) (right scale) Average daily balance of corresponding accounts Fixed component (Fund of required reserves) Fig. 3.7 Money multiplier Fig. 3. Structure of the commercial banks reserves in the monetary base Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

15 V. MONETARY SECTOR 3.3 Money supply 1 %, МоМ, СТ 11 %, МоМ, СТ , , , 9, 9 X V V V V V X X X X 1 1 Fig. 3.9 M1 growth X V V V V V X X X 1 1 Fig. 3.1 М* growth %, МоМ, СТ in prices Real growth М* Fig М* dynamics % of GDP Monetization factor (the right scale) %, MoM, СТ 13 13, ,7 9 97, 9 X V V V V V X X X X (at exchange rate at beginning of year) Fig. 3.1 М3 growth Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

16 V V. MONETARY SECTOR 3. The resource base of commercial banks, 3, 3,,, 1, 1,, bln. BYN, BoP bln. USD, BoP 7,,,, 7, 7,,,,,,,,, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1,, bln. BYN, BoP bln.usd, BoP,1 1,,9,7,,3,1 1,9 1, Term deposits in national currency Term deposits in foreign currency (right scale) Fig Term deposits of individuals in national and foreign currency Term deposits in national currency Term deposits in foreign currency (right scale) Fig. 3.1 Term deposits of enterprises in national and foreign currency mln. BYN, in prices (+) net borrower (-) net lender External sector (rest of the world) Changes in NFA, (+) decrease, (-) insrease (right scale) Fig. 3.1 Finance resources attracted by banks from the rest of the world mln. BYN, in prices The central bank to banks Non-financial organizations Total (+) net borrower (-) net lender General government Households Fig. 3.1 Domestic finance resources attracted by banks Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

17 V. MONETARY SECTOR 3. Financial depth of the economy 9 % of GDP Fig SDEO to GDP ratio, deflated Fig. 3.1 SDEO structure 9 mln. BYN, in prices 9 mln. BYN, in prices Corporate bonds Loans and credits Shares Derivatives Total issue Net issue Fig Attracted resources of enterprises by financial instruments Fig. 3. Corporate bonds issue Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 17

18 . MONETARY SECTOR Borrowing in the economy %, МоМ, СТ 1,3 1,9 Fig. 3.1 Bank s claims on the economy Financial sector claims on enterprises 1, 9 X V V V V V X X X X (at exchange rate at beginning of year) as % of total Direct subsidized loans Unsubsidized loans Fig. 3. Preferential loans in total loans of commercial banks QoQ, CT, % 1 1, , 1 1, 9 V V (at exchange rate at beginning of year) Fig. 3.3 Financial sector claims on the economy % of GDP bln. BYR, in 7 prices Fig. 3. Financial sector claims on enterprises 1 - Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

19 V V V V. MONETARY SECTOR 3.7 Foreign exchange market Sell Buy Balance, (-) excess of demand (right scale) Fig. 3. Buy and sell volumes of foreign exchange market by households Sell Buy Balance, (-) excess of demand (right scale) Fig Buy and sell volumes of foreign exchange market by companies Sell Buy Balance, (-) excess of demand (right scale) Fig. 3.7 Total buy and sell volumes of foreign exchange market Spot currency market Belarusian Currency and Stock Exchange Curb market Foreign exchange market Fig Average daily turnover of foreign currency on the foreign exchange market Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 19

20 Q 1 * * V. EXTERNAL SECTOR.1 Balance of payments % of GDP 3,1-1,9-1,1 -, % of GDP -1,1 -, Trade Balance Services balance ncome balance Current transfers balance Current account balance Fig..1 Current account balance Statistical difference Financing through the reduction of the foreign exchange reserves External financing (-) increasing debt External financing (-), not increasing debt Current account balance Fig.. Sources of financing of current balance deficit bln. USD bln. USD 3 bln. BYN % , 1, Net capital inflow not increasing debt Net capital inflow increasing debt Net inflow of foreign capital Fig..3 Net capital inflow to cover the current account s deficit Gross capital formation due to NED growth Gross capital formation due to national savings Share of NED gross capital formation (right scale) Fig.. Gross capital formation due to NED growth Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

21 V V V V. EXTERNAL SECTOR. Foreign trade % of GDP , Export inflow mport outflow Net flows, (+) the inflow of currency (right scale) Fig.. The ratio of trade balance in goods and services to GDP, M/M Fig.. Foreign exchange inflow from export and outflow for import , M/M due to the change in prices due to the change in volume due to the change in prices due to the change in volume Fig..7 Changes in export of goods Fig.. Changes in import of goods Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 1

22 V. EXTERNAL SECTOR.3 External conditions and diversification of exports 3 1 in millions of ton USD/ 1 t , 1, V Petroleum products Potash fertilizers bln. USD Other goods Petroleum products and raw oil Potash fertilizers -V Fig..9 Export volumes and export prices Fig..1 Export volume of goods %, Y/Y V M 1 GDP growth in Russia GDP growth in the EU GDP growth in Ukraine 1,,1-1, 1 1 bln. USD % 1, 1, V Exports of goods Share of total exports (right scale) Fig..11 GDP growth in Russia and the EU Fig..1 Export of goods without 1 largest trading partners Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

23 V. EXTERNAL SECTOR. External debt %, QoQ ,3, Gross external debt (GED) growth The growth rate of government external debt (GED) Q 1-13 Fig..13 Growth rates of GED and GovED Fig.1 NED Growth %, QoQ, CT %, QoQ, CT, BoP ,,,, 3,, 1,, GED growth GovED growth Short-term GED growth External debt of commercial banks External debt of the government External debt of companies Gross external debt Fig..1 GED, GovED and short-term GED Fig..1 Dynamics of structure of gross external debt Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 3

24 1 1 V. EXTERNAL SECTOR. Creditworthiness in millions of USD in millions of USD %, BoP,,1,, 1, Borrowing Repayment The balance (-) net incurrence of liabilities Poland 19 Azerbaijan Armenia Russia 17 Belarus 1 Fig..17 Borrowing and repayment of foreign loans Fig..1 Eurobonds 1 1 in billion of USD, BoP % of total, BoP Government National Bank Companies (without trade credits) Banks Short-term external debt accumulated Fig..19 Short-term GED by residual maturity maturity currency and deposits Debt securities loans Other liabilities Fig.. Short-termed GED by financial instruments Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

25 V V V V. EXTERNAL SECTOR. Real exchange rate and price competitiveness %, MoM, CT %, MoM, CT nominal exchange rate BYR to USD real exchange rate BYR to USD Fig..1 Nominal and real exchange rate of BYR to USD (calculated by CP) nominal exchange rate BYR to EUR real exchange rate BYR to EUR Fig.. - Nominal and real exchange rate of BYR to EUR (calculated by CP) %, MoM, RUB per 1 USD BYN per 1 USD, 1, 1, nominal exchange rate BYR to RUB real exchange rate BYR to RUB Fig..3 - Nominal and real exchange rate of BYR to RUB (calculated by CP) Exchange rate of RUB to USD Exchange rate of BYN to USD (right scale) Fig.. Exchange rate of RUB and BYN to USD Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

26 V V V V V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS.7 Foreign-exchange reserves 1 1 in billions of USD 7,7,, in billions of USD, BoP 13,, international reserve assets at the average for the month 3-month imports % of GDP nternational reserve assets 1% of short-term external debt Fig.. The level of adequacy of the reserves Fig.. The level of adequacy of reserves in millions of USD bln. USD, BoP,9, monetary gold reserve assets in foreign currency other assets changes in international reserves Fig..7 RA structure RA Predetermined short-term expenses RA Fig.. Predetermined expenses of RA during the year Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

27 V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS.1 nternal sectoral imbalances % of GDP bln. USD,9, Q 1 The overall imbalance in the economy, in % of GDP The overall imbalance in the economy in dollar terms (right scale) % of GDP Q 1 The imbalance of banks The imbalance of the government The imbalance of the National Bank The imbalance of enterprises The overall imbalance in the economy Fig..1. The overall imbalance in the economy Fig.. Agents that create an imbalance % of GDP Q 1 Government Population The overall imbalance in the economy Banks The rest of the world GDP GN Fig..3 Agents that fund imbalance Fig.. GDP и GN Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 7

28 V V V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS. The linkages between monetary and external sectors bln. USD, EoP 3, bln. USD, EoP -,7 -,3 -, -3, -, -, -, -7, NFA of the National Bank, changes NFA of the National Bank (right scale) Fig.. NFA of the National Bank NFA of commercial banks, changes NFA of commercial banks (right scale) Fig.. NFA of commercial banks bln. USD, EoP -1, bln. USD, EoP -, NFA of the banking system, changes NFA of the banking system (right scale) Fig..7 Changes in NFA of the banking system NFA of the financial sector, changes NFA of the financial sector (right scale) Fig.. NFA of the financial sector Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1

29 V V V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS. The linkages between monetary and external sectors bln. USD, BoP , % к ВВП -, -,3 NFA of the National Bank NFA of commercial banks NFA of the banking system Fig..9 NFA of the banking system Fig..1 NFA of the banking system in % to GDP in billions of USD, BoP 3,,3, , nternational reserve assets of the National Bank net foreign assets of the National Bank 3, in billions of USD., BoP -1, -, , -,9 -, -,3 Fig..11 RA and NFA of the National Bank Fig..1 NFA of commercial banks Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 9

30 V V V V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS.3 Separate financial flows between the National Bank, banks and Ministry of Finance 3 3, BoP Fig..13 National Bank foreign currency denominated bonds in the portfolio of banks Fig..1 Upcoming National Bank repayment of foreign currency bonds 3 3, BoP 1 9 mln. BYN, in 11 prices Fig..1 Ministry of Finance foreign currency denominated bonds in the portfolio of banks Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June Fig..1 Subsidising of interest rates on banking loans by the Ministry of Finance 3

31 V V. NTERSECTORAL FNANCAL FLOWS. External imbalance % of GDP Gross savings (S) Gross accumulation () The current account balance (CAB = S - ) Fig..17 The resource gap Gross national disposable income (GND) Absorption (A = C+) The current account balance (CAB = GND - A) Fig..1 GND and absorption 3 -V 1,9 3, 3, ,7 3, 1, FAB CAB RES % % % % % 1% Distant arc European Union Eurasian Economic Union Fig..19 The sources of financing balance of payments deficits Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 Fig.. Diversification of Exports 31

32 AUTHORS: AKULCH Uladzimir, YAFMENKA Yuliya, RAMANUK Uladzislau, ALACHNOVČ Ales, NAŪRODSK Sierž, ALEKSATOVCH Katsiaryna, SMALENSKAYA Viktoriya Author of the picture on the cover - YAFREMENKA Lizaveta Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1. CASE Belarus. 1. ssue. The review can be downloaded from CASE Belarus website: The information presented in the review is based on the data from official sources and calculations of CASE Belarus staff. When using the graphs presented in the review, reference to CASE Belarus is requested. Any suggestions and comments please forward to: review@case-belarus.eu CASE Belarus, 1 Macroeconomic Review of Belarus. January-June 1 3