Yegor Gaidar. Russia's Experience: A Cricitical View, and What are Some Lessons for Mongolia's Development

Transcription

1 Yegor Gaidar Russia's Experience: A Cricitical View, and What are Some Lessons for Mongolia's Development 1

2 Comparison between USSR in 193 and China in 198, by GDP per capita and by level of urbanization 16 GDP per capita, $ Urban population, % USSR, 193 China, 198 USSR, 193 China, 198 * In international dollars of 199 (Geary Khamis dollars) 2

3 Procurement of grain in the USSR Procurement of grain in the USSR

4 Urban population numbers in the USSR 25 2 population, million

5 Balance of USSR trade in grain and agricultural products, Balance, $ million Balance of trade in grain, $ million Balance of trade in agricultural products, $ million 5

6 Average output of new oil wells being put in operation in the USSR Average output, t/month

7 Dynamics of prices of crude oil in long-term perspective (188 24) 8 Price, USD per barrel * Mean historic price ($ per barrel) Mean annual price in real term s * All prices are pegged to the constant 24 level. 7

8 From materials of meetings at the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers Nikolay Ryzhkov, 17 September 199: Comrade Maslyukov: We understand that the only source of hard currency is, of course, the source of oil If we do not make all the necessary decisions now, next year may turn out to be beyond our worst nightmares [ ] As for the socialist countries, it may all end up in a most critical situation. All this will lead us to a veritable collapse, and not only us but our whole system 8

9 From materials of meetings at the office of Chairman of the Council of Ministers Nikolay Ryzhkov, 17 September 199: Nikolay Ryzhkov: The Vneshekonombank s guarantees are needed, but it cannot provide them. [ ] We must make the decision, reach the level of 547 million tons, while only 6 million tons will be available for oil exports to both socialist countries and capitalist countries, and then we ll bury everything. [ ] We shall not even get the 547. I see that if there is no oil, there will be no national economy. 9

10 From a memorandum for the talks between Eduard Shevardnadze and Helmut Kohl: In course of the meeting between representatives of Vneshekonombank and Deutche Bank that took place on 27 April this year, the latter s management believes it feasible that the Soviet Government hold negotiations, within the shortest term, with the governments of EU member states, primarily with the FRG, France, Italy and, possibly, the UK, concerning the provision of government guarantees, against which the banks of respective countries could be prepared to grant financial credits to cover the deficit of the USSR s balance of payments and to finance measures aimed at further restructuring the USSR s economy 1

11 Stale debt to foreign suppliers Stale debt, million hard-currency roubles June September October

12 A. P. Nosko to the Committee for the Operative Management of the USSR National Economy, 26 November As it has already been reported to the Inter-Republican Economic Committee, all liquid hard currency resources have already been exhausted, and the current hard currency inflow does not cover the liabilities pertaining to the repayment of the country s external debt. 12

13 Output growth rate in extracting and processing industries, (as % of previous year) Extraction of mineral resources Processing industries 13

14 Growth rates of world GDP and Russia s GDP, (as % of previous year) world, total Russia 14

15 Share of oil, petroleum products, gas and metals in RF overall exports in 27 Other commodities, Machines, 16% equipment and means of transportation, 6% Metals and metal products, 14% Mineral products, 64% 15

16 Growth rates of world GDP (left-hand scale), dynamics of oil and metal prices (right-hand scale), (as % of previous year) * world, total oil metals world, total (mean) * IMF s forecast. 16

17 Volumes of trading in oil futures at the New York Mercantile Exchange, (million contracts)

18 Capital in/outflow on the markets of developing countries, billion USD, and growth rate of global economy (right-hand scale), %, capital in/outflow growth rate of global economy 18

19 Capital inflow* into the RF economy in first halfyears of 27 and 28**, billion USD 7 62, ,1 1 January June 27 January June 28 * Balance of transactions with capital and financial instruments. ** As estimated by the RF CB. 19

20 Size of Russia s gold and foreign currency reserves in 2-28 as of end of year, billion USD Sept. 8 2

21 Size of the RF Stabilization Fund in as of 31 December of each year, as % of GDP ,7 1 8, ,7 4 3,

22 Budget surplus of the RF general government in 2 27, as % of GDP 9, 8, 8,1 8,5 7, 6, 6,1 5, 4, 3, 4, 3,2 4,6 2, 1, 1,5 1,1,

23 Forecasted * budget balances of different levels of authority in the RF in 21, 215, and 22, as % of GDP 2, 1,5 1,,5, -, , -1,5-2, -2,5 Enlarged budget Consolidated budget Federal budget * According to the RF Ministry of Finance s Draft RF Budget Strategy for the period until

24 Substitution coefficient * in the RF in 2-225, % ** 21** 212** 214** 216** 218** 22** 222** 224** * Average annuity to average wage ratio. ** Forecast by the Center of Strategic Research. 24

25 Personal income tax proceeds in real terms, in 2 27, billion rubles, in 2 prices

26 Profits tax proceeds in real terms, in 2 27, billion rubles, in 2 prices

27 Proceeds of tax on extraction of mineral resources, in 2-27 (in billion rubles left-hand scale and as % of GDP right-hand scale, in 2 prices) % 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % billion rubles as % of GDP 27