MEDIUM TERM MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK

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1 REPUBLIC OF COTE D IVOIRE Unity Discipline Labor Consultative Group National Development Plan Côte d Ivoire At Work MEDIUM TERM MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK With the support of all its development partners, including: 1

2 The National Development Plan is now the reference document for the new strategy. It envisages strong, sustainable, inclusive, equitable, job creating and environmentally conscious growth. Growth will be driven by a substantial increase in public and private investment (including foreign investment). These investments have been carefully chosen, based on growth engines both transversal (justice and good governance, education and technical and higher education, health, urban planning and housing, environment, sanitation, drinking water, water and forest and security) and vertical (infrastructures and transportation, energy, mines and hydrocarbons, agriculture, industries and SMEs, ICT and scientific research, trade, handicrafts and tourism). The main objectives are as follows: achieve a real GDP growth rate of 8.6% in 2012; 9% in 2013; and 10% in 2014 and Investments are expected to increase from 12.5% of GDP in 2012 to 23.5% in 2015, with public investments growing from 5.3% of GDP in 2012 to 9% in 2015; reduce the poverty rate by half and return to the group of African countries with the highest UNDP Human Development Index scores; achieve the Millennium Development Goals in 2015 or come very close to doing so; create one of the best business climates in Africa and enhance the competitiveness of our economy; and join the group of African countries leading the way in terms of good governance and combating corruption (World Bank Index). The Government has reaffirmed its determination to continue implementing the three year economic and financial policy supported by the Extended Credit Facility with the International Monetary Fund. To that end, it will pursue the reforms already begun, particularly in the areas of: (i) public financial management; (ii) governance and the modernization of public administration; (iii) restoration of financial equilibrium in the electricity sector and adjustment of the prices of petroleum products; (iv) financial sector rehabilitation; and (v) improvement of the business climate. In general, the Government plans to improve the quality of policies and institutions to ensure the efficient use of resources, with a view to promoting sustainable development, creating jobs and reducing poverty. To accomplish this, the consolidation of national reconciliation and the restoration of security throughout the territory will remain its priorities. The economic take off of Côte d Ivoire has begun. At end December 2011, all the macroeconomic results were much better than expected and the preliminary results at end June 2012 show that the growth target of 8.1% will be exceeded. The dynamic performance of the secondary sector is confirmed by an industrial production index up by 30.3% from 2011 and by 5.8% from All industries are contributing to this resurgence, particularly:agri food (+41,2%), chemical products (+98%), textiles and footwear (+81.5%), auto mechanics (+49.9%), electricity, water (+15.7%), construction materials (+76.1%) and construction and public works (+154.9%). The tertiary sector is also on the right track, as evidenced by the 45.7% increase in retail sales compared to 2011 and 22.6% compared to 2010, as well as the 80% increase in air traffic compared to Public financial management and reform efforts led in June 2012 to 2

3 attainment of the completion point under the IMF and World Bank HIPC Initiative, substantially reducing the stock of external debt to 18% of GDP. Activity in all sectors is clearly on the rise and in some cases even exceeds initial projections. The business confidence index is above 90%. Investment is picking up, and university classes resumed on September 24, 2012, following two years of closure of the universities that had to be rebuilt. Schools, hospitals and public buildings are being gradually renovated. The rehabilitation of roads has also begun, as well as the construction of new major roads and agricultural service roads. The business climate is improving, particularly as a result of the adoption of a new investment code and the opening of a one stop window for investors. Full implementation of the coffeecacao sector reform has been under way since the start of the new cacao crop year in October Execution of the State budget was better than expected in the first half of 2012 and the rate of inflation remains moderate. Macroeconomic stability was strengthened and the predictability of public resources management has improved significantly. The broad structural reforms implemented under programs supported by the IMF, the World Bank, the AfDB and the European Union are beginning to bear fruit. The macroeconomic outlook confirms the recovery of economic activity in The economic recovery in Côte d Ivoire is gaining strength with a revised GDP growth forecast of 8.6% in 2012, compared to an initial target of 8.1%, following a decline of 4.7% in This upward adjustment is attributable primarily to the resurgence of activities in the secondary sector (+14.8%, compared to +11.8% initially). The recovery is further strengthened by the uptick that occurred after the post election crisis, the consolidation of peace and security, the tax breaks granted to adversely affected businesses, and the acceleration of public and private investment projects (up 63.2% from 2011). Inflation will be kept within the limit of the community standard of 3%. The change in prices, as an annual average, will amount to 1.1%, in conjunction with the measures taken by the Government to combat the high cost of living, including the improvement of market supply distribution channels and the suspension of import duties on rice to contain the impact of higher international food prices. In the area of foreign trade, imports and exports are expected to increase in value by 7% of GDP and 1.7% of GDP, respectively. The current account balance will show a surplus of 2.9% of GDP, compared to 10.2% in 2011, owing to the expected growth of imports accompanying the resumption of investments. The capital and financial account is projected to show a deficit of 3.9% of GDP. In all, the overall balance of payments is expected to show a deficit of 1% of GDP. The fiscal outlook for the year as a whole appears to be better than expected, thanks to the improved collection of tax and customs revenues, which are projected to post a gain of CFAF billion (0.9% of GDP). The year 2013 should see the Ivorian economy take off, following the recovery of The Government plans to accelerate the rehabilitation and construction of basic socioeconomic infrastructures and to improve the business climate to support growth. The objective is to combat poverty and make progress toward attainment of the MDG in a climate of consolidated peace. 3

4 The Government intends to pursue the implementation of a coherent series of structural reforms launched in 2011 and to take additional measures. The improvement in public financial management will be reinforced in particular by the transposition and implementation of the new WAEMU directives. The Government also plans to continue with the restructuring of the energy and agricultural sectors, the reform of public administration and the strengthening of the financial system in order to sustain growth. In line with the NDP, the Government projects economic growth of 9% in 2013, driven in particular by investments. On this basis, the investment rate is projected to increase from 12.5% of GDP in 2012 to 16.2% of GDP in Public investment is expected to fulfill its role of catalyst of growth and to promote a strong recovery in private investment. To that end, a Public Investment Program (PIP) consistent with the objectives of the NDP has been prepared. It takes into account the regional integration initiatives that were the subject of a donor roundtable on its financing. The private sector, which will benefit from the improvement in the business climate, will be one of the engines of accelerated growth. Accordingly, the Government has adopted a new investment code and set up a one stop window for investors to facilitate business start ups. In addition, the return of trading partners and the resumption of large scale investment projects should also attract private investment, particularly through the promotion of Public Private Partnerships (PPP), for which a priority list of eligible projects was identified. The latter include the coming on line of new factories, the construction of low cost housing, oil and gold exploration and development, and improved power generating capacity. The dynamism of economic activity will be extended to all sectors by Thus: the primary sectoris expected to post a growth rate of 4.7% in 2013, thanks to the positive trends of all its components. This performance will result from the growth of mining output and the implementation of agricultural development policy under the National Agricultural Investment Program (PNIA), the financing of which was arranged in the September 2012 roundtable. thesecondary sectoris projected to grow by 12.1%, as a result of (i) the improved business climate, (ii) the use of business capacities, (iii) the restoration of investor confidence, and (iv) the promotion of public and private investments through the strengthening of public private partnerships. the tertiary sectoris expected to expand by 12.9% thanks to the dynamism of all its components, linked to the performance of the primary and secondary sectors. The rate of inflation is expected to remain within the limit of the community standard of 3%. The agricultural development policies, particularly with regard to rice and other foodstuffs, the anti racketeering initiatives and the gradual reduction of incidental charges, as well as the rehabilitation of agricultural service roads, should contribute to a better market supply and the control of prices. Inflation is thus projected at 2.3%. The forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are consistent with continued implementation of the NDP in a stable macroeconomic environment. With the pursuit of investments in growthpromoting sectors (the percentage ratios of which would align with the sub Saharan average) as well as the strong performance of increasingly diversified exports, the growth rate is expected to reach about 10% per year in the period, with an average investment rate of 21.8% per year. All sectors should contribute to growth, particularly the secondary and tertiary sectors. Thanks to the continuation of prudent fiscal and monetary policies, the 4

5 inflation rate should remain within the limit of the community standard of 2%. The pursuit of a prudent public debt management policy will continue to ensure the sustainability of public debt. 5

6 APPENDICES TABLE 1: SUMMARY OF THE MAIN AGGREGATES October 20, 2012 version /20/ :52 NDP Target 1. In value (billions of current Francs) Total GDP 11, , , , , ,550.0 Annual change 4.3% 0.1% 9.7% 11.4% 12.4% 12.4% GDP per capita (in thousands of CFAF) GFCF(gross fixed capital formation) 1, , , , ,112.6 Investment rate 9.0% 8.2% 12.5% 16.2% 20.2% 23.4% public 3.1% 2.8% 5.3% 7.4% 9.3% 9.7% private 5.9% 5.4% 7.1% 8.8% 10.9% 13.7% Trade balance 1, , , , Rate of coverage 138.1% 186.4% 129.3% 119.9% 113.8% 108.8% 2. Volume changes (in %) Total GDP primary sector secondary sector tertiary sector non market sector GDP per capita GFCF Final consumption Merchandise exports Merchandise imports Implicit prices Annual changes in %,,,,,, Implicit GDP deflator Household consumption deflator HICP[harmonized index of consumer prices] (annual average %) Merchandise terms of trade ,,,,,, 4. Contributions to GDP growth,,,,,, primary sector secondary sector tertiary sector non market sector Total GDP

7 October 20, 2012 version Data in US dollars Nominal GDP (billions) GDP per capita 1, , , , GFCF (billions) Total exports (billions) of which goods Total imports (billions) of which goods Memorandum item: CFAF per 1 dollar (annual average) Population growth rate Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance/ Directorate General of Economy / Directorate of Economic Conditions and Economic Forecasts (MEF/DGE/DCPE). 7

8 RESOURCES AND USES ACCOUNT TABLE 2.1. GDP in current francs October 20, 2012 version /20/ :52 NDP target Primary sector 3, , , , , ,587.3 Food agriculture, livestock 2, , , , , ,091.3 Export agriculture Forestry Mining Fisheries Secondary sector: 2, , , , , ,284.6 Agri food industries Petroleum products Energy (gas, water, electricity) Construction and public works , ,554.8 Other industries , , , ,250.9 Tertiary sector: 4, , , , , ,826.3 Transportation, communications Telecommunications Trade 1, , , , , ,619.6 Services 1, , , , , ,966.6 Duties and charges , , ,651.8 Commercial GDP 9, , , , , ,698.2 General government services 1, , , , , ,815.0 Services of nonprofit institutions Non market GDP 1, , , , , ,851.8,,,,, Total GDP 11, , , , , , GDP uses:,,,,,, GFCF: 1, , , , ,112.6 households corporations , ,962.0 General government , , ,708.7 Nonprofit institutions Final consumption 9, , , , , ,304.8 Households 7, , , , , ,370.8 General government 1, , , , , ,894.5 Nonprofit institutions Change in stocks Net external demand 1, , Exports 5, , , , , ,139.2 Goods 5, , , , , ,502.5 Nonfactor services Imports 4, , , , , ,081.6 Goods 3, , , , , ,894.2 Nonfactor services , , ,187.4 Source:Ministry of Economy and Finance 8

9 RESOURCES AND USES ACCOUNT TABLE 2.2. GDP in current francs: annual change in %. Version of October 20, GDP resources: Updated NDP target (2) Primary sector Food agriculture, livestock Export agriculture Forestry Mining Fisheries Secondary sector: Agri food industries Petroleum products Energy (gas, water, electricity) Construction and public works Other industries Tertiary sector: Transportation Telecommunications Trade Services Duties and charges Commercial GDP General government services Services of nonprofit institutions Non market GDP Total GDP GDP uses: GFCF: households corporations General government (TOFE) Nonprofit institutions (+ municipalities) Final consumption Households General government Nonprofit institutions Exports Goods Nonfactor services Imports Goods Nonfactor services Source:Ministry of Economy and Finance 9

10 RESOURCES AND USES ACCOUNT TABLE 2.3. GDP in current francs: distribution of resources and uses in % of GDP Version of October 20, GDP resources: Updated NDP target (2) Primary sector Food agriculture, livestock Export agriculture Forestry Mining Fisheries Secondary sector: Agri food industries Petroleum products Energy (gas, water, electricity) Construction and public works Other industries Tertiary sector: Transportation, communications Telecommunications Trade Services Duties and charges Commercial GDP General government services Services of nonprofit institutions Non market GDP Total GDP GDP uses: GFCF: households corporations General government (TOFE) Final consumption Households General government Nonprofit Institutions Change in stocks Net external demand Exports Goods Nonfactor services Imports Goods Nonfactor services Source:Ministry of Economy and Finance 10

11 TABLE 3: ASSUMPTIONS MACROECONOMIC FRAMEWORK 10/20/ :54 Production (in thousands of tons) Change 12/11 NDP target Coffee % Cacao 1, , % 1, , ,418.0 Bananas % Pineapples % Seed cotton % Palm oils % Sugar % Rubber % Cashew nuts % Oil (thousands of barrels) 14, , % 10, , ,401.7 Barrels/day 39, , % 29, , ,977.2 Gas (millions of cubic meters) 1, , % 1, , ,746.1 Gold (Kg) 5, , % 20, , ,226.6 Manganese (tons) 49, % 500, , ,000.0 Petroleum products (Kt) 2, , % 2, , ,572.2 Volume growth (in %) SUPPLY Primary sector Food agriculture Export agriculture Mining Forestry Secondary sector Construction & public works Agri food Petroleum products Energy (water, electricity) Other industries (a)

12 /20/ :54 Change 12/11 NDP target Tertiary sector Transportation Telecommunications Trade Services (b) Duties and charges Non market GDP DEMAND Final consumption Household consumption Public consumption Investments Private investments Public investments Exports goods & services Imports goods & services Gross domestic product (GDP) Deflator Source: MEF/DGE/DCPE (a): Textiles footwear, wood, chemical products, natural rubber, construction materials, auto mechanics, other industries (papermaking, printing, etc.) (b): Banking finance, research training, IT, hotels tourism, maintenance, real estate, etc. 12

REPUBLIC OF COTE D IVOIRE Union Discipline Labor

REPUBLIC OF COTE D IVOIRE Union Discipline Labor MINISTRY TO THE PRIME MINISTER, IN CHARGE OF BUDGET AND STATE PORTFOLIO -------------- SUMMARY OF COMMUNICATION IN THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS ON BUDGET EXECUTION AS OF THE END OF MARCH 2016 REPUBLIC OF COTE