Key indicators for Bulgaria*

Transcription

1 Key indicators for Bulgaria* This update: July 1 Next update: October 1 1. Output Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 Industrial confidence 1.1 % Industrial production 1. ** Construction Production 1.3 ** Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Gross domestic product Private cosumption 1 Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Consumer confidence.1 % Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 Turnover in retail trade. ** Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Individual final consumption Investment 1 Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Capacity utilization in industry 3.1 % Gross fixed capital formation Change in stocks 3.3 % of GDP Labour market 1 Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Unemployment rate.1 % Unemployment rate - male % Unemployment rate - female % Employment rate 1+. % Employment rate - % Employed persons Labour costs Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 Shortage of labour in industry. % Wages International transactions Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 Export order books in industry.1 balance Exports of goods. mln. EUR Imports of goods.3 mln. EUR Trade balance. mln. EUR Current account. mln. EUR Direct investment (net). mln. EUR Portfolio investment (net).7 mln. EUR Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Prices Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 HICP Q3 1 Q 17 Q1 17 Q 17 Q3 17 Q 1 Q1 1 Q HPI Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 Producer prices on domestic market (in industry).3 ** Selling prices expectations in industry. balance Selling prices expectations in retail trade. balance Monetary and financial indicators Nov.'17 Dec.'17 Jan.'1 Febr.'1 March'1 April'1 May'1 June'1 SOFIBOR (3 months) 7.1 index М Credit to Non-finansial Corporations and Households and NPISHs Exchange rate USD/BGN 7. value Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. * The key indicators are elaborated in accordance with the euro zone indicators system. The analytical document is quarterly updated. Source of the data are the statistical surveys and BNB data. ** In compliance with Regulation (EC) 11/9 and amendment Regulation (EC) 11/ since January 1 the base year for Short-term business statistics has been changed. All short-term indicators presented in the form of indices are calculated and published at 1 as a base year. 1

2 Comments* 1. Output According to the business inquiries in June 1 the industrial confidence indicator increased by 1.3 percentage points compared to May 1. In April 1 working day adjusted Industrial Production Index went down by.% in comparison with the same month of 17 (preliminary data). On annual basis in April 1 Industrial Production Index calculated from working day adjusted data went down in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by 3.%, in the mining and quarrying industry by.%, and in the manufacturing by 1.1%. In April 1 working day adjusted data also showed an increase by.% in the construction production, compared to the April 17. On an annual basis in April 1, the increase of production in construction, calculated from working day adjusted data, was determined from the positive rate in the building construction, where the growth was by.%, while in the civil engineering was registered a decline by 1.% According to the preliminary data, the produced Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices in the first quarter of 1 amounted to 1 79 million BGN. The GDP per person amounted to 3 BGN. In USD terms at average quarterly exchange rate of 1.91 BGN per dollar, the GDP amounted to 13 9 million dollars or 1 91 dollars per person. In Euro terms, the GDP amounted to 1 9 million Euro or 1 Euro per person. According to the seasonally adjusted data 1, the GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 1 is 3.% compared to the same quarter of the previous year and.9% compared to the fourth quarter of 17.. Private consumption In April 1, the total consumer confidence indicator increases by 1. percentage points compared to its January level. An increase of consumer confidence among both urban and rural inhabitants by 1. and.1 percentage points respectively is reported. The consumers total assessment about the development of the economic situation in the country over the last 1 months is slight deteriorated, while their expectations over the next 1 months are improved. In April 1, the working day adjusted turnover in Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles marked rise from.% in comparison with the same month of the previous year. In April 1 compared to the same month of 17 the turnover increased in the Retail sale via mail order houses or via Internet by 1.%, in the Dispensing chemist; retail sale of medical and orthopedic goods, cosmetic and toilet articles by 9.1%, in the Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco by 7.%, in the Retail sale of audio and video equipment; hardware, paints and glass; electrical household appliances by.9%, in the Retail sale in non-specialized stores by 3.3% and in the Retail sale of computers, peripheral units and software; telecommunications equipment by 3.1%. Decline was registered in the Retail sale of textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods by.3%. In the first quarter of 1 for individual consumption were spent 77.% of the GDP produced. According to seasonally adjusted data 1, the indicator increased by.9% compared to the respective quarter of Investment In April 1, the average capacity utilization in industry was by 3.1 percentage points less its January level and it reached 73.7%. According to seasonally adjusted data 1, the gross fixed capital formation in the first quarter of 1 increased in real terms by 7.% compared to the same period of the previous year. The relative share of that indicator in GDP is 1.%.. Labour market In the first quarter of 1 there were thousand employed persons aged 1 years and over, of whom 1. thousand men and 1 3. thousand women. The share of employed persons in the total population aged 1 years and over was 1.%, up by 1. percentage points compared to the first quarter of 17. In employment were 7.3% of men and.1% of women in the age group concerned. * From July, 1 annual data is published in a separate application, which is updated every first half year. 1 Seasonally and calendar adjusted data.

3 In the first quarter of 1 there were 1.7 thousand unemployed persons, of whom thousand (9.%) men and 77.1 thousand (.%) women. The unemployment rate was.7% and went down by 1. percentage points from the first quarter of 17. The decrease of the unemployment rate was larger for women (by 1. percentage points) than for men (by. percentage points), and as a result of that in the first quarter of 1 the unemployment rate for women was lower than that for men -.1 percentage points and.3 percentage points respectively. In the first quarter of 1 the total hourly labour cost (preliminary data) rose by.% compared to the first quarter of 17. The total hourly labour cost grew by 9.3% in industry, by.% in services and by 7.% in construction. According to the business inquiries in June 1 3.% of the industrial enterprises pointed out the labour shortage as a factor limiting their activity. In March 1 the average wage and salary was BGN 1 17 or.% more compared to the previous month. Compared to March 17 the increase was.9%.. International transactions According to the industrial managers assessments in June 1 in comparison with May an improvement of the production assurance with orders from abroad (by 7. percentage points) was registered. In April 1 the current account 1 was negative amounting to EUR 3.1 million in April 1, compared with a deficit of EUR million in April 17. In January - April 1 the current account was negative and amounted to EUR 1. million (.% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR 13. million (.% of GDP) in January - April 17. In April 1 the trade balance 1 recorded a deficit of EUR 9.7 million in April 1, compared with a deficit of EUR. million in April 17. In January - April 1 the balance on goods was negative amounting to EUR 1 1. million (.% of GDP), compared with a deficit of EUR 9.3 million (1.7% of GDP) in January - April 17. In April 1 exports of goods (FOB) 1 amounted to EUR 13. million in April 1, growing by EUR 1.7 million (1.9%) from April 17 (EUR million). In January - April 1 exports of goods totalled EUR. million (1.% of GDP), increasing by EUR 37. million (.%) year-on-year (from EUR 7 7 million, 1.% of GDP). In January - April 17 exports grew by 13.% year-onyear. In April 1 imports of goods (FOB) 1 amounted to EUR 33. million in April 1, growing by EUR 33.9 million (1.%) from April 17 (EUR 199. million). In January - April 1 imports of goods totalled EUR 9.9 million (17.% of GDP), growing by EUR 9. million (7.%) from January - April 17 (EUR 77.3 million, 17.3% of GDP). In January - April 17 imports grew by 19.% year-on-year. In April 1 the net direct investment 1 was positive amounting to EUR. million, compared with a positive balance of EUR.1 million in April 17. In January - April 1 direct investment recorded a negative balance of EUR 39.7 million (.1% of GDP), compared with a negative balance of EUR 1. million (.3% of GDP) in January - April 17. The foreign direct investment in Bulgaria 1 (under the directional principle) grew by EUR. million in April 1 according to preliminary data, compared with a decrease of EUR 3.9 million in April 17. The direct investment abroad 1 grew by EUR.9 million in April 1, compared with an increase of EUR 1.1 million in April 17. In April 1 the balance on portfolio investment 1 was positive amounting to EUR.7 million, compared with a negative balance of EUR 119. million in April 17. In January - April 1 the balance was positive and equated to EUR 91 million (1.% of GDP), compared with a positive balance of EUR million (.% of GDP) million in January - April 17. In April portfolio investment - assets 1 grew by EUR 9.1 million, compared with an increase of EUR 31.9 million in April 17. In April 1 portfolio investment - liabilities 1 dropped by EUR 37. million compared with an increase of EUR 11. million in April Preliminary data. In accordance with the practice of the BNB and the data revision requirements of the ECB. The estimates of GDP are taken from BNB. 3

4 The external balance in the first quarter of 1 is negative. Exports of goods and services increased by.%, imports of goods and services increased by.% (according to seasonally adjusted data) 1.. Prices GDP) 3. Loans to Households and NPISHs were BGN.17 billion (19.% of GDP) 3 at the end of May 1. In May 1 the exchange rate BGN against the USD reached BGN 1.7 per USD. In May 1 the harmonized index of consumer prices increased by.3% compared to May 17. The highest decrease was registered in Clothing and footwear - by.%. In first quarter of 1 the house price index increased by 7.1% compared to same quarter of 17. Producer Price Index on Domestic Market in May 1 increased by.% compared to the same month of 17. The domestic prices rose in the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply by.9%, in the mining and quarrying industry by.% and in manufacturing by.%. According to the conjuncture inquiry in June 1 the managers foresee the selling prices in industry to preserve their level over the next 3 months. 7. Monetary and financial indicators In May 1 the three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR decreased in comparison with May 17 by.13 percentage points from.11% to minus.%. In May 1 broad money (monetary aggregate M3) increased annually by.% compared to.% annual growth in April 1. At the end of May 1 M3 was BGN 7. billion (3.% of GDP) 3 compared to BGN. billion (.% of GDP) 3 in April 1. The loans to Non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs in May 1 amounted to BGN.719 billion. In May 1, loans to Nonfinancial corporations increased by.9% annually (.9% annual growth in April 1) and at the end of the month amounted to BGN 31.9 billion (3.% of 1 Seasonally and calendar adjusted data. Preliminary data. In accordance with the practice of the BNB and the data revision requirements of the ECB. 3 The estimates of GDP are taken from BNB.

5 1. OUTPUT. PRIVATE CONSUMPTION 1 % Industrial confidence indicator last value: June 1 % Consumer confidence indicator last value: April Long-term average Industrial production last value: April 1 3 Turnover in retail trade last value: April Gross Domestic Product last value: 1 Q1 1 Individual final consumption last value: 1 Q Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

6 3. INVESTMENT. LABOUR MARKET % 9 Capacity utilization in industry Long-term average last value: April 1 % 1. Unemployment rate last value: 1 Q Gross fixed capital formation last value: 1 Q1 Employed persons last value: 1 Q % of GDP Change in stocks last value: 1 Q1 3 Labour cost index last value: 1 Q Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

7 . INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Balance -1 Export order books in industry last value: June 1 3 Mln. euro Exports of goods Trade balance Imports of goods last value: April 1 - Long-term average Trade balance Mln. euro Current account last value: April 1 Mln. euro 1 Direct investment (net) last value: April Portfolio investment (net) Mln. euro Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. last value: April 1 last value: 1 Q1 Exports and imports of goods and services 3 Exports 1-1 Imports

8 . PRICES 7. MONETARY AND FINANCIAL INDICATORS 1 Harmonized index of consumer prices last value: May 1 Index 9. SOFIBOR last value: May Producer prices on domestic market (in industry) last value: May 1 1 last value: May 1 М3 and credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs (loans) 1 Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs 1 M Balance 1 Selling prices expectations in retail trade last value: June 1 1 Index (1997 = 1) Dynamics of monetary aggregates last value: May 1 1 Money in circulation Long-term average М Note: - growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year.

9 Key indicators for Bulgaria - Methodological notes Indicator Note Source 1. Output 1.1. Industrial confidence indicator Business survey in industry. The industrial confidence indicator is an arithmetic average of balances to replies on production expectations, order books and stocks of finished products (the latter with negative sign). 1.. Industrial production Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, working day adjusted data Construction Production Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, working day adjusted data. 1.. Gross Domestic Product Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected for working day effects. Data are presented according to ESA '1.. Private consumption.1. Consumer confidence indicator Consumer survey. The consumer confidence indicator is an arithmetic average of balances of the expectations about the economic and financial situation, unemployment and savings of households over the next 1 months... Turnover in retail trade Turnover in retail trade (excluding motor vehicles) at constant prices, growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, working day adjusted data..3. Individual final consumption Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected for working day effects. Data are presented according to ESA '1. 3. Investment 3.1. Capacity utilization Average capacity utilization in industry, as a percentage of full capacity (Data are collected each January, April, July and October). 3.. Gross fixed capital formation Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected for working day effects. Data are presented according to ESA ' Change in stocks As a percentage of GDP. Data are presented according to ESA '1.. Labour market.1. Unemployment rate Ratio between the unemployed persons and the economically active population in Bulgaria (data from Labour force survey)... Employment rate Ratio between the employed persons and the total population of the same age group (data from Labour force survey)..3. Employed persons Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (data from Labour force survey)... Labour costs Index of hourly labour costs incurred by the employers as a result of engaging the workforce, growth rate compared to the same period of previous year, working day adjusted data... Shortage of labour Percentage of firms in industry pointing out shortage of labour as a constraint to production... Wages Growth rate of the average montly wages of the employees under labour contract nominal value compared to the same period of the previous year.. International transactions.1. Export order books Business survey in industry. Balance of positive and negative replies.. Exports of goods Balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation, million EUR. Information on the BNB methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - Imports of goods Balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation, million EUR. Information on the BNB methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - Trade balance Balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation, million EUR. Information on the BNB methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - Current account Balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation, million EUR. Information on the BNB methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - Direct investment (net) million EUR, balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation. Information BNB on the methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - Portfolio investment (net) million EUR, balance of payment (according BPM), Analytical presentation. Information BNB on the methodology and data on BNB indicators can be found on the website of the BNB, Statistics section - 9

10 .. Exports of goods and services Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected for working day effects. Data are presented according to ESA '1..9. Imports of goods and services Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted data corrected for working day effects. Data are presented according to ESA '1.. Prices.1. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year... House price Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. Data reffers to new and existing dwellings (apartments)..3. Producer prices on domestic market (in industry).. Selling price expectations in industry Business survey in industry. Balance of positive and negative replies... Selling price expectations in retail trade Business survey in retail trade. Balance of positive and negative replies. 7. Monetary and financial indicators 7.1. SOFIBOR Three-month interbank market index SOFIBOR (SOFIBOR: Sofia Interbank Offered Rate is a BNB fixing of the quotations for unsecured BGN deposits offered in the Bulgarian interbank market). 7.. М3 Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (monthly value: value at the end BNB of the month) Credit to Non-financial Corporations and Households and NPISHs (loans) Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. Growth rate compared to the same period of the previous year (monthly value: value at the end of the month). 7.. Exchange rate USD/BGN Period averages. BNB BNB 1