External Position of the Egyptian Economy

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy During July / December 2004/05 Quarterly Report Volume No. (8) April 2005

2 Foreword The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is one of a series released by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) on a quarterly basis to shed light on the performance of Egypt's external sector during the period of coverage. The report at hand, the Eighth in this series, covers the first half of FY 2004/05. It reviews the BOP performance, external debt, external liquidity and exchange rate developments during the said period. The Central Bank of Egypt hopes that this report will be of value and of interest to both specialized and non-specialized readers. Governor Central Bank of Egypt

3 Table of Contents Page Overview Section I: Balance of Payments 1 Section II: External Liquidity 9 Net International Reserves 9 Net Foreign Assets of Banks 10 Section III : External Debt 11 Section IV : Exchange Rate Developments 15 Appendices : A - Main Statistics 17 B - Detailed Tables & Charts of the External Debt 25

4 Overview The main developments in the external position of the Egyptian economy during the first half of FY 2004/05, compared with that of FY 2003/04 are summarized hereunder. Egypt's balance of payments achieved a significant current account surplus, totaling US$ million during July/Dec. 2004/05, compared with US$ million in the corresponding period of the previous year. This is mainly attributed to a higher surplus in services balance by 36.9%, as travel revenues* surged by 22.7%, and to a rise in unrequited transfers by 37.9%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit increased by 32.2%. The capital and financial account resulted in a net outflow of US$ million against US$ million. Foreign investment in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized net inflows of US$ million (including FDI in petroleum sector) compared with US$ 69.8 million. The overall balance realized a surplus of US$ million during July/Dec. 2004/05 compared with a deficit of US$ million in the preceding corresponding period. Net international reserves reached US$ 15.4** billion, with an increase of US$ million during the period, covering about eight months of commodity imports. Banks' net foreign assets reached US$ 7.6 billion at end of Dec. 2004, increasing by US$ 1.9 billion. Foreign currency deposits with banks also increased by 7.2%, to reach US$ 21.4 billion at end of Dec As the result of the stability of the foreign exchange market, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits decreased to reach 32.1% at end of Dec. 2004, against 32.6% at end of June Egypt's external debt (public and private) totaled US$ 31.1 billion at end of December 2004, up by about US$ 1.2 billion from US$ 29.9 billion at end of June The external debt position continued to be solid and well structured, as the medium and long-term debt accounted for 94.5% of total debt, under which the public sector is the major obligor, carrying 94.7% of Egypt's external debt. Despite a net repayment of US$ 0.3 billion, the medium and long-term debt increased by US$ 1.5 billion, due to the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other currency obligations. Such a net repayment was an outcome of principal repayments of US$ 0.9 billion and disbursements of US$ 0.6 billion. External debt as a ratio of GDP decreased to reach 38.4% at end of December 2004, against 39.6% at end of December By the end of December 2004 the exchange rate appreciated due to the successful launch of the interbank exchange market (reaching PT **/US dollar at end of December 2004) as well as the adoption of the new monetary policy regime which focuses on price stability. * Calculated on the basis of the number of tourist nights multiplied by a tourist average spending per night. ** During the printing process of this report, Net International Reserves (NIR) reached US$ 18.0 billion at end of March 2005, and the interbank rate appreciated to reach PT /US dollar at end of March 2005.

5 Section I Balance of Payments

6 - 1 - Developments in the Balance of Payments* During the First Half of FY 2004/05 Introduction Table (1) reveals the transactions on the balance of payments during July/Dec 2004/05, compared with that of the same period of FY 2003/04. The surplus in the services balance improved noticeably as did the unrequited transfers, while the trade deficit widened. The BOP current account, including transfers, achieved a surplus of US$ 2.9 billion. The capital and financial account realized net outflows. The overall balance recorded a surplus of US$ million compared with a deficit of US$ million during July/Dec. of FY 2003/04. Table (1) Balance of Payments* (US$ mn) July /Dec. 2003/ /05** Current Account Current Account (Excluding Transfers) Trade Balance Exports*** Oil Other Exports Imports*** Oil Other Imports Service Balance Receipts Payments Transfers Official (net) Private (net) Capital and Financial Account Direct investment abroad Direct investment in Egypt (net) Portfolio investment abroad Portfolio investment in Egypt (net), of which: Sovereign bonds Other investments (net) Net Errors and Omissions Overall Balance Change in Reserve Assets, Increase (-) * Compiled according to the Fifth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual, September ** Preliminary Figures. *** Including exports and imports of free zones. + Include US$ mn. Investments in petroleum sector.

7 Current Transactions 1.1: Trade Balance As shown in Figure (1) the trade balance demonstrated a rise in both exports and imports. Import payments totaled US$ 11.2 billion, indicating a rise of US$3.0 billion, or 37.3%. This was an outcome of a US$ 2.6 billion or 36.9% increase in non-oil imports, to post US$ 9.6 billion, and a US$ million or 39.7% increase in payments for oil imports, to reach US$ 1.6 billion. Commodity export proceeds totaled US$ 6.4 billion during July/Dec. 2004/05, with an increase of US$ 1.9 billion, or 41.4% over the period of comparison. This pickup was due to a 47.7% rise in oil export proceeds, to reach US$ 2.5 billion, and a 37.5 % rise in non-oil export proceeds, reaching US$ 3.9 billion. As the increase in imports surpassed that of exports, the trade deficit widened by 32.2%, to reach US$ 4.8 billion against US$ 3.6 billion in the previous corresponding period. However, the coverage ratio of export proceeds to import payments increased from 55.5% to 57.2%. Figure (1) ( US$ bn ) Commodity Transactions July/ Dec / / / / 2005 Exports Imports Non Oil Oil 1.2: Services Balance and Transfers Table (2) reveals that the services surplus increased by 36.9%, to reach US$ 5.3 billion during July/Dec. 2004/05, against US$ 3.8 billion. This was a result of higher service receipts by 27.5%, to reach US$ 8.3 billion, and higher service payments by only 13.9%, to reach US$ 3.0 billion.

8 - 3 - Table (2) Services Balance (US$ mn) July /Dec. 2003/ /05* Change (-) Services Balance Receipts Transportation Travel Investment Income Government Receipts (29.2) Other Receipts Payments Transportation Travel (57.8) Investment Income Government Payments Other Payments * Preliminary Figures. As shown in Table (2) and Figure (2), the rise in service receipts was reflected on most items (except government receipts). Travel receipts (tourism revenues) increased by 22.7%, to total US$ 3.5 billion, mainly as tourist nights jumped to 46.8 million nights compared with 38.2 million nights during July/Dec. 2003/04, while the average expenditure of a tourist per night remained at the same level of US$ 75.0/night. Transportation rose as well by 14.8 %, to reach US$ 2.0 billion, as a result of a 15.4% pickup in Suez Canal dues and in the receipts of the Egyptian airline companies. The investment income receipts rose by 34.8% due to higher interest received on deposits abroad. Other receipts rose by 53.7% to amount to US$ 2.3 billion, mainly due to an increase in invisible receipts of the petroleum sector, construction and contractors' services and communication services. On the other hand, government receipts fell by 30.1%, to total US$ 67.9 million. The 13.9% rise on the service payments side was reflected on most items. Transportation payments surged by 63.0% due to higher transfers by foreign airline companies and Egyptian navigation companies. Government payments rose by 26.9%, to reach US$ million due to higher expenditures of government officials working abroad. Other payments rose by 16.2%, to reach US$ 1.4 billion, mainly due to higher transfers by Egyptian petroleum companies, construction and contractors' services, and communication services. Investment income payments rose by 4.1% due to higher interest paid on non-residents deposits in Egyptian banks. However, travel payments fell by 8.6% because of lower expenses paid abroad for tourism and medical treatment.

9 - 4 - Figure (2) (US$ bn ) Services Balance July/Dec / / 2005 Receipts Payments Travel Receipts Table (3) below shows that net unrequited transfers rose by 37.9%, recording US$ 2.5 billion in July/Dec. 2004/05. Official transfers increased by 93.8%, due to the rise in the transfers of all items. Meanwhile, private transfers rose by 25.8% as a result of the increase in workers' remittances. Table (3) Unrequited Transfers (US$ mn) July /Dec. 2003/ /05 Change (-) Total Official Transfers (Net) Inward cash grants Other inward grants Outward grants Private Transfers (Net) Workers' remittances Other transfers Foreigners transfers abroad

10 - 5 - The BOP current account indicates an increase of US$ 4.3 billion or 33.8% in current receipts, reaching US$ 17.1 billion. This increase reflected the pickup in all its components, i.e. 41.4% in export proceeds, 27.5% in service receipts, 93.8% in official transfers and 25.8% in private transfers. On the other hand, current payments increased by 31.5% due to a surge of 37.3% in import payments and of 13.9% in service payments. (See Table [4] below) Table (4) Summary of Current Receipts and Payments July /Dec. 2003/04 % 2004/05 % (US$ mn) Change (-) Current Receipts Export Proceeds (FOB) Service Receipts Private Transfers (net) Official Transfers (net) Current Payments Import Payments (CIF) Service Payments In July/Dec. 2004/05, external balancing indicators improved, as shown in Table (5). By excluding official transfers, current receipts cover 116.4% of current payments, against 115.7% in the preceding corresponding period. On adding official transfers, the ratio rises to 120.7% against 118.6%. Table (5) Current Receipts/Current Payments Coverage Ratio (%) July /Dec. 2003/ /05 Commodity Exports/Commodity Imports Invisible Receipts/Invisible Payments Current Receipts/Current Payments (excluding official transfers) Current Receipts/Current Payments

11 Capital and Financial Account Fig. (3) and Table (6) hereunder reveal that during July/Dec. 2004/05 the net outflow achieved by the capital and financial account dropped to US$ 1.6 billion compared with US$ 3.0 billion during the same period of FY 2003/04. Figure (3) (US$ bn) Capital & Financial Account July/Dec 2003/ /2005 Capital Inflow Capital Outflow FDI Table (6) Capital and Financial Account (US$ mn) July /Dec. 2003/ /05 Capital and Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (net) ** Portfolio Investment Abroad Portfolio Investment in Egypt (net), of which Sovereign bonds Other Investments (net) Disbursements Medium- & long- term loans International & regional organizations Bilateral loans Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit Short-term suppliers & buyers credit (net) Repayments Medium- & long-term loans International & regional organizations Bilateral loans Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit Other Assets CBE Banks Others Other Liabilities CBE Banks Preliminary. ** Including foreign direct investments in petroleum sector.

12 - 7 - The following are the factors that influenced the capital and financial account during July/Dec. 2004/05 as compared with the same period of FY 2003/04: - Foreign investments in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized total inflows of US$ million (after adding the FDI in petroleum sector) and total outflows of US$ million, compared with US$ million, and US$ million, respectively in July/Dec. 2003/04. Such transactions led to net inflows totalling US$ million during July/Dec. 2004/05 compared with US$ 69.8 million. Foreign direct investments in Egypt realized a net inflow of US$ million, of which US$ million is inflows for the petroleum sector investments, against US$ 89.2 million a year earlier. Portfolio investment in Egypt unfolded net inflows of US$ million compared with net outflows of US$ 19.4 million. It is noteworthy that foreigners' tradings on the Egyptian Stock Market revealed net purchases of US$ million during July/Dec. 2004/05 against US$ 21.1 million. Total purchases amounted to US$ million against US$ million, while total sales were US$ million, against US$ million. Portfolio investment in Egypt also included purchases of US$ 4.0 million by resident financial institutions (banks and insurance companies) of sovereign bonds issued abroad, against purchases of US$ 40.5 million. - Medium- & long term loans and suppliers' Credit during July/Dec. 2004/05 revealed net repayments of US$ million against US$ million. This was due to a fall in total disbursements to amount to US$ million and a rise in total repayments to reach US$ million. The rise in total repayments was a result of higher medium- & long- term loans, reaching US$ billion and higher medium and long term suppliers' credit, to record US$ million. - Foreign assets of the banking system improved by US$ 1.8 billion against US$ 1.2 billion. Foreign assets of banks increased by US$ million compared with US$ 1.2 billion; and non-reserve foreign assets of the CBE rose by US$ 20.5 million against US$ 37.8 million in the period of comparison. - Other assets decreased by 23.4%, to amount to US$ 1.4 billion, compared with US$ 1.8 billion, due to higher banknotes purchases through banks during the period under review, as well as a slight decrease in the difference between the tourism (travel) revenues calculated by multiplying the number of tourists' nights and the average expenditure of a tourist per night and those revenues provided by banks.

13 Other liabilities fell by US$ 84.9 million against US$ million. This was due to the decrease in banks foreign liabilities by US$ 91.7 million, compared with US$ million, and the increase in CBE s foreign liabilities by US$ 6.8 million, compared with US$ 5.8 million. 3 - Overall Balance The overall surplus amounted to US$ million in July/Dec. 2004/05 (0.8% of GDP) against a deficit of US$ million in July/Dec. 2003/04 (-0.2% of GDP). Table (7) Balance of Payments: Summary (US$ mn) July /Dec. 2003/ /05* Current Account Balance Capital & Financial Account Foreign Direct Investment (inflow-outflow) Portfolio Investment (inflow-outflow) Net Borrowing CBE Non-reserve Foreign Assets** CBE Short-term Liabilities Net Foreign Assets of Banks** Other Assets Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE's Reserve Assets** * Preliminary. ** Increase = Minus.

14 Section II External Liquidity Net International Reserves Net Foreign Assets of Banks

15 Net International Reserves (NIR) During July/Dec. 2004/05, NIR increased by US$ million, against a decrease of US$ 88 million, to reach US$ 15.4 billion at end of December However, the NIR coverage ratio for commodity imports reached 8.3 months at end of Dec Table (8) (US$ mn) End of June 2003 Dec June 2004 Dec Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign Exchange SDRs Other Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months Imports Figure (4) US$ bn 16.5 NIR and Months Imports Coverd ( Balance at end of month) (Month) Foreign Exchange Gold Other Reserves/Months Imports 0.0 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec

16 Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by US$ 1.9 billion during July/Dec. of FY 2004/05, to reach US$ 7.6 billion at end of Dec (See Figure [5]) Figure (5) US$ bn Net Foreign Assets of Banks ( Balance at end of month) Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04 Assets Liabilities During July/Dec. 2004/05, foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 7.2% against 7.1% in the corresponding period, to reach US$ 21.4 billion at end of Dec On the other hand, local currency deposits increased by 8.7% against 7.1%. Accordingly, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits posted 32.1% at end of Dec. 2004, against 32.6% at end of June Figure (6) LE bn Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies ( Balance at end of month) Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits 50 0 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Dec-04

17 Section III External Debt

18 Egypt s External Debt Egypt s external debt (public and private) in US dollar reached US$ 31.1 billion at end of December 2004, denoting a rise of US$ 1.2 billion or 4.1 %. The rise was an outcome of the exchange rate effects (depreciation of the US dollar visà-vis other currencies of borrowing) amounting to US$ 1.5 billion on the one hand, and a net repayment of US$ 0.3 billion on the other hand. Table (9) End of External Debt (US$ mn) June 2004 December 2004 Change Value % Value % + (-) External Debt Rescheduled bilateral debt* ODA ** Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries (58.6) International & regional organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credit (88.9) Sovereign bonds (4.0) Long-term Deposits Short-term debt: (249.7) Deposits (559.5) Other facilities Private sector (non-guaranteed) (15.0) * According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on 25/5/1991 ** Official Development Assistance + As of December 2004, The deposit of the Arab International Bank was transferred from short-term debt to long-term deposits.

19 Figure (7) US$ mn 0 External Debt By Maturity & Debtor Sector End of December Medium & Long-term External Debt Short-term External Debt Public Sector Debt Private Sector Debt Data on external debt reveal an ongoing improvement in the external debt structure, as medium- and long-term debt accounted for 94.5% of total debt, and short-term debt accounted for 5.5%. The public sector owed 94.7% of Egypt s external debt, and the private sector owed 5.3%. (see Figure [7] above) In spite of the net repayments realized during July/December 2004/05, which reached US$ 0.3 billion, the medium- and long-term debt increased by US$ 1.5 billion, to reach US$ 29.4 billion at end of December 2004, compared with end of June Such an increase was a result of the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other currencies of borrowing. It is worth noting that the net repayment was an outcome of principal repayments of US$ 0.9 billion and disbursements of only US$ 0.6 billion. 2 - External Debt by Creditor A breakdown of Egypt s external debt by creditor indicates that bilateral loans owed to Paris Club members (rescheduled and non-rescheduled) accounted for 66.5% of the total, reaching US$ 20.7 billion at end of December Debt owed to non Paris Club members amounted to US$ 1.1 billion, or 3.6%. The outstanding debt of suppliers and buyers credit amounted to US$ 1.2 billion, or 4.0% of the total. Egypt s debt to international and regional organizations reached US$ 5.2 billion at end of December 2004, accounting for 16.7% of the total.

20 The stock of sovereign bonds decreased by US$ 4.0 million, to reach US$ million or 1.9% at end of December 2004, against US$ million at end of June Long term deposits accounted for 1.6% of the total, reaching US$ 500 million at end of December Short-term debt decreased by US$ million, to reach US$ 1.7 billion or 5.5% of the total. The nonguaranteed debt of the private sector decreased by US$ 15.0 million, to reach US$ 70.2 million or 0.2% of the total. It is worth noting that 59.2% of Egypt's external debt is owed to France, USA, Japan and Germany. 3 - External Debt by Debtor Table (10) reveals that the external debt data display an increase of US$ 1.2 billion in main institutional sectors during July/December 2004/05. Specifically, the balance of the other sectors increased by US$ million, and of central and local government by US$ million. In contrast, there was a decrease in the balance of banks by US$ million and of the Central Bank by US$ 1.3 million. In spite of the said developments, the structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor has not seen any significant change during the period under review. The central and local government, as shown in the table, has continued to be the main debtor, with US$ 19.7 billion or 63.5% of the total, representing claims on the government. Table (10) End of External Debt by Debtor June December 2004 % 2004 % (US$ mn) Change + (-) External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Debt Total Short-Term Debt (249.7) Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-term Debt, of which Bonds & Notes (4.0) Short-term Debt Monetary Authority (1.3) Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt (500) Banks (435.2) Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt (443.9) Other Sectors Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt

21 External Debt Indicators External debt service payments increased by US$ 34.4 million during July/December 2004/05 to reach US$ 1.2 billion. This was a result of the US$ 50.5 million increase in principal repayments, to reach US$ million, and of the US$ 16.1 million decrease in interest payments, to stand at US$ million. Despite this increase, the debt service ratio to export proceeds of goods and services declined to 8.1% during July/December 2004/05, from 10.5% in the previous corresponding period. This was mainly due to an increase in commodity exports, travel receipts and Suez Canal dues. In the same manner, debt service ratio to current receipts stepped down to 7.0%, compared with 9.0%. (See Figure [8] and Table [11]) In the meantime, the ratio of short-term debt to total external debt declined from 5.7% to 5.5%. Similarly, its ratio to NIR decreased from 11.9% to 11.1%. As a percentage of GDP, the external debt decreased to reach 38.4% at end of December 2004, against 39.6% at end of December Figure (8) % External Debt Indicators End of December 2002/ / /2005 Short-term Debt / External Debt (end of period) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves (end of period) External Debt/GDP Debt Service / Exports (G & S) Debt Service / Current Receipts Table (11) External Debt Indicators (%) July / December 2002/ / /05 Debt Service/Exports (G&S) Debt Service/Current Receipts Short-term Debt/External Debt (end of period) Short-term Debt/NIR (end of period) External Debt/GDP

22 Section IV Exchange Rate Developments

23 Exchange Rate Developments Since 29 January 2003, the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound has been liberalized. According to CBE Central Chamber for FX Statistics, the US dollar exchange rate reached pt at end of December 2004, against pt at end of December This exchange rate is calculated on the basis of the weighted average of US dollar exchange rate at all market participants, including the CBE. As such, the LE exchange rate appreciated by about 0.86 % during the year under review. This appreciation is mainly attributed to the successful launch of the interbank foreign exchange market in December 2004 as well as the adoption of a new monetary policy regime focusing on price stability. Exchange rate in interbank market reached PT per US dollar at end of December Table (12) Exchange Rate (in PT/US$) End of December Weighted Average Rate LE appreciation (%) 0.86 % Figure (9) Weighted Average Rate (in PT/US$)- End of Month December 02 December 03 December 04

24 Appendices

25 A. Main Statistics Page I- Balance of Payments Balance of Payments (July/Dec. 2003/ /05) 19 Balance of Payments (contd.) 20 II- External Liquidity Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of Banking System III- External Debt 21 External Debt.. 22 External Debt by Debtor. 23 IV- Exchange Rate Developments Exchange Rates ( in piasters per foreign currency unit ). 24

26 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) July/December 2003/ /05* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal (1374.0) (1586.0) Travel Investment Income Government Services Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income, of which Interest Paid (294.0) (297.0) Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance * Preliminary. **Include free zones exports and imports.

27 (US$ mn) 2003/ /05* Capital & Financial Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) *Preliminary. **Include Investments in Petroleum Sector Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) July/December **

28 Table (2) :Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of Banking System US $ million End of June-00 June-01 June-02 June-03 Dec-03 June-04 Dec-04 Net International Reserves(1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign exchange SDRs Other Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Liabilities

29 Table (3) External Debt End of (US$ mn) June June June June Dec. June Dec Total External Debt* Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional institutions Suppliers' & buyers' credits Sovereign bonds Long -term deposits Short-term debt Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) * The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, It has been agreed to consider the Arab International Bank deposit as medium and long term external debt.

30 -23- Table (4) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June-04 % Dec-04 % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium & Long-Term Total Short-Term (249.7) (12.7) Central & Local Government Medium & Long-Term (of which) Bonds & Notes (4.0) (0.7) Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Monetary Authority (1.3) (0.1) Medium & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans (1.3) (0.4) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term (500.0) (76.9) Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits (500.0) (76.9) Other Liabilities Banks (435.2) (18.5) Medium & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans (443.9) (33.7) Money Market Instruments Loans (36.4) (41.5) Currency and Deposits (59.5) (9.6) Other Liabilities (348.0) (56.8) Other Sectors Medium & Long-Term Loans from direct investors Bonds & Notes Trade credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans from direct investors Money Market Instruments Trade credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities

31 Table (5) Exchange Rates (In piasters per foreign currency unit ) End of Dec.2004 First : Interbank Rates Minimum Maximum Weighted average Second : Market Rates Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Japanese Yens Swiss Franc Canadian Dollar Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Bahrain Dinar Source : CBE daily exchange rates.

32 B. Detailed Tables and Charts of the External Debt Page I- Total External Debt 27 A. Stock of Medium -and Long-Term 1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed a. By Creditor b. Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 31 (1) Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, (2) Contracted after October 31, c. Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 35 d. Multilateral Agencies Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt 39 C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans. 40 II- Total Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service 41 A. Public and Publicly Guaranteed 1. Paris Club Bilateral Debt a. Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, b. Contracted after October 31, Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt Multilateral Agencies 48 B. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 51

33 -27- Table ( 1 ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of December Total Debt (US$mn){1} Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 25, , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 18, , , , May 1991 (Third Stage) 14, , , , Post Cut-Off Date 4, , , , B. Non- Paris Club Bilateral Debt , , C. Multilateral Agencies 4, , , , D. Sovereign Bonds 1, E. Arab International Bank Deposit {2} Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector (Non-Guaranteed Debt) 3- Short-Term Debt 2, , , , Deposits (Non Residents) Arab International Bank Deposit Others , , , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium and long term external debt. Figure ( US$bn ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of December

34 Figure 1-1 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt as at End of December 2004 Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt 4% Sovereign Bonds 2% Arab International Bank Deposit 2% Multilateral Agencies 18% -28- Paris Club Bilateral Debt 74%

35 -29- Table ( 2 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of December (US$mn){1} Country Total Debt France 4, , , , Int'l Organizations 4, , , , United States 5, , , , Japan 3, , , , Germany, Fed. Reb. of 2, , , , Spain Italy Austria Sovereign Bonds 1, Switzerland Arab International Bank Deposit {2} Bahrain Kuwait United Kingdom Canada Australia Denmark China.P.R.of Belgium The Netherlands Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Sweden Norway Taiwan Germany, Dem. R. of Turkey Romania Bulgaria India Grand Total 25, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium and long term external debt.

36 Figure 2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public And Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of December 2004 Sovereign Bonds 2% Others 12% France 19% Japan 15% Int'l Organizations 18% United States 16% Others 18%

37 -31- Country (US$mn){2} France 4, , , , Japan 3, , , , United States 5, , , , Germany, Fed. R. of 2, , , , Spain Italy Austria Switzerland United Kingdom Canada Australia Denmark Belgium The Netherlands Sweden Norway Grand Total 18, , , , {1} This Table is the total of Tables No 4 and 5. {2} End of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Table ( 3 ) {1} Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of December Total Debt Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of December ( US$bn )

38 -32- Table ( 4 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} France 3, , , , United States 4, , , , Japan 2, , , , Germany, Fed. R. of 1, , , , Spain Austria Italy Switzerland United Kingdom Australia Canada Denmark The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 14, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of December ( US$bn )

39 -33- Table ( 5 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Contracted after October 31,1986 as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Germany, Fed. R. of , , , Japan 1, , , , France United States 1, Italy Spain Austria Switzerland Denmark United Kingdom Canada Belgium Sweden The Netherlands Grand Total 4, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 5 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Contracted after October 31, 1986 as at End of December ( US$mn ) 4,800 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,

40 Figure 5-1 Stock of Medium-and Long- Term Public And Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of December 2004 Post Cut-Off Date 22% May 1991 (Third Stage) 78%

41 - 35- Table ( 6 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Bahrain Kuwait China P. R. of Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates Taiwan Germany Dem. R. Of Turkey Romina Bulgaria India Grand total , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 6 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of December 1,200 1,000 ( US$mn )

42 Table ( 7 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of December Creditor Total Debt (US$mn){1} IDA 1, , , , European Investment Bank , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development IBRD African Development Bank Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank African Development Fund International Fund For Agricultural Development Arab Trade Financing Program Arab International Bank Nordic Investment Bank Grand Total 4, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 7-1 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of December 6,000 5,000 ( US$mn ) 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

43 Figure 7-2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of December 2004 African Development Bank 6% IBRD 8% Arab Monetary Fund 6% IDA 28% Others 11% AFESD 19% European Investment Bank 22%

44 Table ( 8 ) Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Int'l Organizations United Arab Emirates Austria Germany, Fed. R. of United Kingdom United States Italy Sudan Malaysia France Grand Total {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 8 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of December ( US$mn )

45 Table ( 9 ) Outstanding External Short-Term Debt as at End of December Total Debt (US$mn){1} Short-Term Debt {2} 2, , , , Non-Financial Public Sector Financial Public Sector {2} Private Sector (Guaranteed) Private Sector (Non-Guaranteed) 1, Arab International Bank Deposit {3} Short-Term Banking Facilities Public Sector Banks Private Banks Grand Total {1} End of period exchange rate. (2) Excludes banking facilities. {3} It has been agreed to include the Arab International Bank deposit in medium and long-term external debt. Figure 9 2,500 Outstanding External Short-Term Debt as at End of December 2,000 ( US$mn ) 1,500 1,

46 Table ( 10 ) Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of December 2004 (US$mn){1} Contracted Cancelled Net Disbursed Undisbursed Amounts {2} Amounts Commitments Amounts Amounts 1- Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 58, , , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 38, , , May 1991 (Third Stage) 22, , , Non-Guaranteed Debt {2} 2, , , Post Cut-Off Date 13, , , B. Non- Paris Club Bilateral Debt 3, , , C. Multilateral Agencies 16, , , , , Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt 1, , , Grand Total 59, , , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} As of Figure 10 60,000 Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of December 50,000 ( US$mn ) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Contracted Amounts Net Commitments Disbursed Amounts

47 - 41- Table ( 11 ) Medium- and long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2005 (US$mn){1} Period Principal {2} Interest ( * ) Total Period Principal {2} Interest Total 2005/ / / / / / /2(**) / /1(***) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2(****) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Grand Total 32, , , {1} The exchange rate of December 31, 2004 {2} Includes assumptions on disbursement of undisbursed portion of contracted loans - see Table (10) for disbursement assumptions. (*) Includes projections for interest on US$ millions sovereign bonds up to 2011/2. (**) Includes US$ 500 million sovereign bonds. (***) Includes US$ 500 million for the Arab International Bank deposit which was included in medium and long-term external debt. (****) Includes US$ 83.7 million sovereign bonds.

48 Figure 11 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, US$ mn Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, Principal {2} Interest ( * ) Total