External Position of the Egyptian Economy

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy During the Period July / September 2004/05 Quarterly Report Volume No. (7) January 2005

2 Foreword The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is one of a series released by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) on a quarterly basis to shed light on the performance of Egypt's external sector during the period of coverage. The report at hand, the Seventh in this series, covers the first quarter of FY 2004/05. It reviews the BOP performance, external debt, international reserves and exchange rate developments during the said period. The Central Bank of Egypt hopes that this report will be of value and of interest to both specialized and non-specialized readers. Governor Central Bank of Egypt

3 Table of Contents Page Overview Section I: Balance of Payments 1 Section II: External Liquidity 9 Net International Reserves 9 Net Foreign Assets with Banks 10 Section III : External Debt 11 Section IV : Exchange Rate Developments 15 Appendices : A - Main Statistics 17 B - Detailed Tables & Charts of the External Debt 25

4 Overview The main developments in the external position of the Egyptian economy during the first quarter of FY 2004/05 compared with that of FY 2003/04 are summarized hereunder. Egypt's balance of payments achieved a significant current account surplus totaling US$ million during July/Sept. 2004/05 compared with US$ million in the same period of FY 2003/04. This is mainly attributed to a higher surplus on services balance by 31.9%, as travel revenues surged by 29.3%, and to a rise in unrequited transfers by 29.1%. Meanwhile, the trade deficit increased by 36.8%. The capital and financial account resulted in a net outflow of US$ million against US$ million. Foreign investments in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized total inflows of US$ million during July/Sept. 2004/05 against US$ million in the same period of FY 2003/04, and total outflows of US$ million against US$ million. Net inflows of these investments amounted to US$ 88.6 million compared with US$ 37.3 million. The overall balance deficit lowered to US$ million during July/Sept. 2004/05 from US$ million in the corresponding period of FY 2003/04. Net international reserves reached US$ 14.7* billion, with a decrease of US$ million during the period, covering about eight months of commodity imports. Banks' net foreign assets reached US$ 6.9 billion at end of Sept. 2004, increasing by US$ 1.2 billion. Foreign currency deposits with banks also increased by 3.5% to reach US$ 20.6 billion at end of Sept Egypt's external debt (public and private) totaled US$ 29.5 billion at end of September 2004, up by about US$ 0.5 billion from US$ 28.9 billion at end of June The external debt position continued to be solid and well structured, as the medium and long-term debt accounted for 93.1 % of total debt, under which the public sector is the major obligor, carrying 94.6% of Egypt's external debt. Despite a net repayment of US$ 0.4 billion, the medium and long-term debt increased by US$ 0.5 billion, due to the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis other currency obligations. Such a net repayment was an outcome of principal repayments of US$ 0.5 billion and disbursements of US$ 0.1 billion. External debt as a ratio of GDP increased to reach 36.9% at end of September 2004, against 37.7% at end of September The Egyptian pound exchange rate reached PT */US dollar at the end of September 2004 against PT a year earlier. * During the printing process of this report, Net International Reserves (NIR) reached US$ 15.4 billion at end of December 2004, and the LE exchange rate appreciated to reach PT /US dollar on January 18, 2005.

5 Section I Balance of Payments

6 - 1 - Developments in the Balance of Payments* During July/Sept. of FY 2004/05 Introduction Table (1) reveals the balance of payments' transactions during the period July/Sept. 2004/05, compared with that of 2003/04. While services balance surplus as well as unrequited transfers improved noticeably, trade deficit widened. The BOP current account including transfers, achieved a surplus of US$ 1.9 billion during July/Sept. 2004/05. The capital and financial account realized net outflows. The overall balance recorded a deficit of US$ million compared with US$ million during the corresponding period of the previous year. Table (1) Balance of Payments* (US$ mn) July /Sept. 2003/ /05** Current Account Current Account (Excluding Transfers) Trade Balance Exports FOB*** Oil Other Exports Imports CIF*** Oil Other Imports Services Balance Receipts Payments Transfers Official (net) Private (net) Capital and Financial Account Direct investment abroad Direct investment in Egypt (net) Portfolio investment abroad Portfolio investment in Egypt (net), of which: Sovereign bonds Other investments (net) Net Errors and Omissions Overall Balance Change in Reserve Assets, Increase (-) * Compiled according to the Fifth Edition of the IMF's Balance of Payments Manual, September ** Preliminary figures. *** Including exports and imports of free zones.

7 Current Transactions 1.1: Trade Balance As shown in Fig (1) the trade balance has demonstrated a rise in both exports and imports. Import payments totaled US$ 5.3 billion, indicating a rise of US$ 1.5 billion, or 38.6%. This was an outcome of a 42.8% increase in non- oil imports to post US$ 4.8 billion, and a 10.0% increase in oil imports, to reach US$ 0.5 billion. Commodity export proceeds totaled US$ 3.1 billion during July/Sept. 2004/05, with an increase of US$ 0.9 billion, or 39.9% over the previous period. This pick up was due to a 35.6% rise in non-oil export proceeds, to reach US$ 1.9 billion, and a 47.1% rise in oil export proceeds to reach US$ 1.2 billion. However, despite the rise of 36.8% in the trade deficit to post US$ 2.2 billion against US$ 1.6 billion, the period recorded a pick up in the coverage ratio of export proceeds to import payments from 58.1% to 58.7%. Figure (1) ( US$ bn ) 6 Commodity Transactions July/ Sept Non Oil 1 Oil / / / / 2005 Exports Imports 1.2: Services Balance and Transfers Table (2) reveals that the services surplus increased by 31.9%, to reach US$ 3.0 billion during July/Sept. 2004/05, against US$ 2.3 billion. Such an increase was a result of a pick up in service receipts by 24.8%, to reach US$ 4.4 billion, and in services payments by only 11.8%, to reach US$ 1.4 billion.

8 Table (2) Services Balance (US$ mn) July /Sept. 2003/ /05 Change (-) Services Balance Receipts Transportation Travel Investment Income Government Receipts (33.1) Other Receipts Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income Government Payments Other Payments As shown in Table (2) and Figure (2), the rise in services receipts was reflected in most items. Travel receipts (tourism revenues) increased by 29.3% to total US$ 2.1 billion *, mainly as tourist nights jumped to record 28.1 million nights during July/Sept. 2004/05 against 21.8 million nights during July/Sept. 2003/04, while the average expenditure of a tourist per night remained at the same level of US$ 75.0/night. Other receipts rose by 34.6% to amount to US$ 1.1 billion, mainly due to an increase in invisible receipts in the petroleum sector, in the construction and contractors' services, and in communication services. Transportation rose as well by 15.2 % to reach US$ 1.0 billion, as a result of the pick up in Suez Canal dues by 12.5%, and in the receipts of Egyptian airlines companies. Investment income receipts also rose by 11.1% due to the increase in all its components. On the other hand, government receipts fell by 44.9% to total US$ 40.7 million. The 11.8% rise on the service payments side was reflected in all items. Transportation payments surged by 32.8% due to higher transfers by foreign airlines companies and by Egyptian navigation companies. Government payments rose by 16.3% to reach US$ million. Other payments went up by 14.3% to reach US$ million, mainly due to higher transfers by Egyptian petroleum companies, Egyptian companies, construction and contractors' services, and communication services. Investment income payments increased by 2.9% to reach US$ million. Travel payments increased by only 1.9% due to higher transfers by hotels and tourism companies. Calculated on the basis of the number of tourist nights multiplied by a tourist average spending per night.

9 - 4 - Figure (2) (US$ bn ) 6 Services Balance July/Sept. 4 Receipts Payments 2 Travel Receipts / / 2005 Table (3) below shows that net unrequited transfers rose by 29.1%, recording US$ 1.1 billion in July/Sept. 2004/05. Official transfers increased by 99.4%, due to the rise in cash and other grants, while private transfers rose by 16.2%, mainly due to the increase in workers' remittances. Table (3) Unrequited Transfers (US$ mn) July /Sept. 2003/ /05 Change (-) Total Official Transfers (net) Inward cash grants Other inward grants Outward grants Private Transfers (net) Workers' remittances Other transfers Foreigners transfers abroad

10 - 5 - The BOP current account indicates an increase of US$ 2.0 billion or 30.4% in current receipts. This rise is a reflection of an increase in all its components, specifically 39.9% in export proceeds, 24.8% in services receipts, 99.4% in official transfers and 16.2% in private transfers. On the other hand, current payments increased by 32.0% due to a rise of 38.6% in import payments and of 11.8% in services payments. (See Table [4] below) Table (4) Summary of Current Receipts and Payments July /Sept. 2003/04 % 2004/05 % (US$ mn) Change (-) Current Receipts Export Proceeds (FOB) Service Receipts Private Transfers (net) Official Transfers (net) Current Payments Import Payments (CIF) Service Payments External balancing indicators have improved in some cases and declined in others, as shown in Table (5). By excluding official transfers, current receipts cover 124.8% of current payments in July/Sept. of fiscal year 2004/05, against 127.7% a year earlier. On adding official transfers, the ratio rises to 128.7% against 130.3%. Table (5) Current Receipts/Current Payments Coverage Ratio (%) July /Sept. 2003/ /05 Commodity Exports/Commodity Imports Invisible Receipts/Invisible Payments Current Receipts/Current Payments (excluding official transfers) Current Receipts/Current Payments

11 Capital and Financial Account Fig. (3) and Table (6) hereunder reveal that during the period July/Sept. 2004/05, the capital and financial account achieved a net outflow of US$ 2.2 billion, almost at the same level of the corresponding period of FY 2003/04. Figure (3) (US$ bn) 2 Capital & Financial Account July/Sept Capital Inflow Table (6) 2003/ /2005 Capital and Financial Account Capital Outflow (US$ mn) July /Sept. 2003/ /05 Capital and Financial Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Foreign Direct Investment in Egypt (net) Portfolio Investment Abroad Portfolio Investment in Egypt (net), of which Sovereign bonds Other Investments (net) Disbursements Medium- and long- term loans International & regional organizations Bilateral loans Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit Short-term suppliers & buyers credit (net) Repayments Medium- and long-term loans International & regional organizations Bilateral loans Medium- and long-term suppliers & buyers credit Other Assets CBE Banks Others Other Liabilities CBE Banks Preliminary. FDI

12 - 7 - The following are the factors that influenced the capital and financial account during July/Sept. 2004/05 as compared with the same period of FY 2003/04: - Foreign investments in Egypt (direct and portfolio) realized total inflows of US$ million and total outflows of US$ million, compared with US$ million, and US$ million, respectively in the corresponding period. Such transactions led to net inflows totalling US$ 88.6 million during July/Sept. 2004/05 against US$ 37.3 million. Foreign direct investments in Egypt realized a net inflow of US$ 50.0 million against US$ 33.7 million in July/Sept. 2003/04. Portfolio investment in Egypt realized net inflows totalling US$ 38.6 million compared with US$ 3.6 million in the corresponding period. It is noteworthy that foreigners' tradings on the Egyptian Stock Market revealed net purchases of US$ 29.5 million during July/Sept. 2004/05 against US$ 20.8 million. Total purchases amounted to US$ million against US$ million, while total sales were US$ million, against US$ million. Portfolio investment in Egypt also included sales of US$ 9.1 million by resident financial institutions (banks and insurance companies) of sovereign bonds issued abroad, against purchases of US$ 17.2 million. - Medium and long term loans and credits revealed a net repayment of US$ million during July/Sept. 2004/05 against US$ million, as total disbursements* fell to US$ million and total repayments rose to US$ million. The fall in total disbursements was a result of a sharp drop in medium- & long-term suppliers' credits to record US$ 2.0 million, while the rise in total repayments was ascribed to higher bilateral loans repayments. - Foreign assets of the banking system improved by US$ million compared with US$ million. Foreign assets of banks increased by US$ million against US$ million; and non-reserve foreign assets of the CBE rose by US$ 0.8 million compared with US$ 21.8 million in the corresponding period of the previous year. - Other assets increased by 12.7% to amount to US$ 1.2 billion. This increase was mainly due to the difference between travel (tourism) revenues calculated on the basis of the number of tourist nights multiplied by the average expenditure of a tourist per night, and those revenues calculated according to banks statistics. * For medium - and long - term loans and credits.

13 Other liabilities fell by US$ million against US$ million, because of the decrease in banks foreign liabilities by US$ million in July/Sept. 2004/05, compared with US$ million; and the rise in CBE s foreign liabilities by US$ 0.9 million compared with a decrease of US$ 0.6 million. 3 - Overall Balance The overall deficit dropped to US$ million in July/Sept. 2004/05 (-0.1% of GDP) from US$ million in the corresponding period (-0.2% of GDP). Table (7) Balance of Payments: Summary (US$ mn) July /Sept. 2003/ /05* Current Account Balance Capital & Financial Account Foreign Direct Investment (inflow-outflow) Portfolio Investment (inflow-outflow) Net Borrowing CBE Non-reserve Foreign Assets** CBE Short-term Liabilities Net Foreign Assets of Banks** Other Assets Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE's Reserve Assets** * Preliminary. ** Increase = Minus.

14 Section II External Liquidity Net International Reserves Net Foreign Assets with Banks

15 Net International Reserves (NIR) During the period July/Sept. of FY 2004/05, NIR retreated by US$ million, against US$ 127 million, to reach US$ 14.7 billion at end of September However, the NIR coverage ratio for commodity imports reached 8.3 months at end of Sept Table (8) (US$ mn) End of June 2003 Sept June 2004 Sept Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign Exchange SDRs Other Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months Imports Figure (4) US$ bn NIR and months imports covered ( Balance at end of month) (Month) Foreign Exchange Gold Other Reserves/Months Imports 0.0 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep

16 Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by US$ 1.2 billion during July/Sept. of FY 2004/05, to reach US$ 6.9 billion at end of Sept (See Figure [5]) Figure (5) Net Foreign Assets of Banks US $ bn 12.0 ( Balance at end of month) Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04 Assets Liabilities During July/Sept. of FY 2004/05, foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 3.5% against 4.9% in the corresponding period, to reach US$ 20.6 billion at end of Sept On the other hand, local currency deposits increased by 3.6% against 2.9%. Accordingly, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits posted 32.7% at end of Sept. 2004, against 32.6% at end of June LE bn Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies ( Balance at end of month) Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits 50 0 Mar-03 Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Sep-04

17 Section III External Debt

18 Egypt s External Debt Egypt s external debt (public and private) in US dollar reached US$ 29.5 billion at end of September 2004, denoting a rise of US$ 0.5 billion or 1.9 %. The rise was mainly an outcome of the appreciation of most currencies of borrowing against the US dollar, and the pick-up in short-term debt. The rise in the external debt was, however, mitigated partly by the increase in the stock of sovereign bonds, in the amount of US$ 9.1 million, and partly by the net repayment of US$ 0.4 billion. Table (9) End of External Debt (US$ mn) June 2004 September 2004 Change Value % Value % + (-) External Debt Rescheduled bilateral debt* ODA ** Non-ODA (124.1) Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries (93.5) Other countries International & regional organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credit Sovereign bonds Short-term debt: Deposits (12.6) Other facilities Private sector (non-guaranteed) (72.0) * According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on 25/5/1991 ** Official Development Assistance

19 Figure (7) US$ mn External Debt By Maturity & Debtor Sector September Medium & Long-term External Debt Public Sector Debt Short-term External Debt Private Sector Debt Data on external debt reveal an ongoing improvement in the external debt structure, as medium- and long-term debt accounted for 93.1% of total debt, and short-term debt accounted for 6.9%. The public sector owed 94.6% of Egypt s external debt, and the private sector owed 5.4%. (see Figure [7] above) In spite of the net repayments realized during July/September 2004/05, which reached US$ 0.4 billion, the medium- and long-term debt, increased by US$ 0.5 billion, to reach US$ 27.4 billion at end of September 2004, compared with end of June Such an increase was a result of the depreciation of the US dollar vis-àvis other currencies of borrowing. It is worth noting that the net repayment was an outcome of principal repayments of US$ 0.5 billion and disbursements of only US$ 0.1 billion. 2 - External Debt by Creditor A breakdown of Egypt s external debt by creditor indicates that bilateral loans owed to Paris Club members (rescheduled and non-rescheduled) accounted for 65.9% of the total, reaching US$ 19.4 billion at end of September Debt owed to non Paris Club members amounted to US$ 1.1 billion, or 3.9%. The outstanding debt of suppliers and buyers credit amounted to US$ 1.2 billion, or 4.0% of the total. 58.5% of the total debt, was owed to France, USA, Japan and Germany. Egypt s bilateral debt to international and regional organizations reached US$ 5.0 billion at end of September 2004, accounting for 17.0% of the total. The stock of sovereign bonds increased by US$ 9.1 million to reach US$ million at end of September 2004, against US$ million at end of June Shortterm debt increased by US$ 57.6 million to reach US$ 2.0 billion or 6.9% of the total. The non-guaranteed debt of the private sector decreased by US$ 72.0 million to reach US$ 85.9 million or 0.3% of the total.

20 External Debt by Debtor Table (10) reveals that the external debt data display an increase of US$ million in main institutional sectors during July/September 2004/05. Specifically, the balance of the external debt of central and local government increased by US$ million, of banks by US$ million, of other sectors by US$ million, and of the Central Bank by US$ 31.2 million. In spite of the said effects, the structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor has not seen any significant change during the period under review. The central and local government, as shown in the table, has continued to be the main debtor, with US$ 18.7 billion or 63.5% of the total, representing claims on the government. Table (10) End of External Debt by Debtor June September 2004 % 2004 % (US$ mn) Change + (-) External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Debt Total Short-Term Debt Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-term Debt, of which Bonds & Notes Short-term Debt Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt Banks Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt Other Sectors Medium- & Long-term Debt Short-term Debt External Debt Indicators External debt service payments increased by US$ 35.7 million during July/ September 2004/05 to reach US$ million. This was a result of the US$ 44.4 million increase in principal repayments, to reach US$ million, and the US$ 8.7 million decrease in interest payments, to stand at US$ million.

21 Despite this increase, the debt service ratio to export proceeds of goods and services declined to 9.6% during July/ September 2004/05, from 11.9% in the previous corresponding period, due mainly to an increase in commodity exports, travel receipts and Suez Canal dues. In the same manner, debt service ratio to current receipts stepped down to 8.4%, compared with 10.4%. (See Figure [8] and Table [11]) In the meantime, the ratio of short-term external debt to total debt rose from 6.6% to 6.9%. Similarly, its ratio to NIR increased from 13.1% to 13.8%. As a percentage of GDP, the external debt decreased to reach 36.9% at end of September 2004, against 37.7% at end of September Figure (8) External Debt Indicators September % % 2002/ / /2005 Short-term Debt / External Debt (end of period) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves (end of period) Debt Services / Exports (G & S) Debt Services / Current Receipts External Debt/GDP(right axis) Table (11) External Debt Indicators (%) July /September 2002/ / /05 Debt Service/Exports (G&S) Debt Service/Current Receipts Short-term Debt/External Debt (end of period) Short-term Debt/NIR (end of period) External Debt/GDP

22 Section IV Exchange Rate Developments

23 Exchange Rate Developments Since 29 January 2003, the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound has been liberalized. According to CBE Central Chamber for FX Statistics, the US dollar exchange rate reached pt at end of September 2004, against pt at end of September This exchange rate is calculated on the basis of the weighted average of US dollar exchange rate at all market participants including the CBE. As such, the LE exchange rate depreciated by about 1.43 % during the year under review. Table (12) Exchange Rate (in PT/US$) End of September Weighted Average Rate LE depreciation (%) 1.43 % Figure (9) Weighted Average Rate (in PT/US$)- End of Month September 02 September 03 September 04

24 Appendices

25 A. Main Statistics Page I- Balance of Payments Balance of Payments (July/Sept. 2003/ /05) 19 Balance of Payments (contd.) 20 II- External Liquidity Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of Banks III- External Debt External Debt 22 Total External Debt by Debtor 23 IV- Exchange Rate Developments Exchange Rate ( in piasters per foreign currency unit ) 24

26 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) July/September 2003/ /05* Trade Balance Exports**(FOB) Petroleum Other Exports Imports**(CIF) Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal (682.0) (767.4) Travel Investment Income Government Services Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income, of which Interest Paid (186.9) (187.0) Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance * Preliminary. **Include free zones exports and imports.

27 Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) (US$ mn) July/September 2003/ /05* Capital & Financial Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) *Preliminary.

28 Table (2) : Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets of the Banking System (US$ million) End of June99 June00 June01 June02 June03 Sep.03 June04 Sep.04 Net International Reserves(1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold Foreign exchange SDRs Other Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Liabilities

29 Table (3) External Debt (US$ mn) End of June June June June June June September June September Total External Debt* Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional institutions Suppliers' & buyers' credit Sovereign bonds Short-term debt Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Source: Central Bank of Egypt. * The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991.

30 Table (4) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of Jun-04 % Sep-04 % Change (-) External Debt Total Medium & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium & Long-Term (of which) Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Monetary Authority ( ) Medium & Long-Term ( ) Bonds & Notes Loans ( ) Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits (12.6) Other Liabilities Other Sectors Medium & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term

31 Table (5) Exchange Rates (In piasters per foreign currency unit ) End of June 2002 June 2003 June 2004 September 2003 September 2004 Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell Buy Sell General average market rate announced by FOREX Statistics Chamber (per US dollar) CBE Rates* (Transfers) : US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Japanese Yens Swiss Franc Canadian Dollar CBE Rates* (Banknote) : Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Bahrain Dinar Rial Omani Qatar Riyal Jordan Dinar *Source: CBE daily exchange rates

32 B. Detailed Tables and Charts of the External Debt Page I- Total External Debt 27 A. Stock of Medium -and Long-Term 1. Public and Publicly Guaranteed a. By Creditor b. Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 31 (1) Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, (2) Contracted after October 31, c. Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt.. 35 d. Multilateral Agencies Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed B. Outstanding External Short-Term Debt 39 C. Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans. 40 II- Total Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service 41 A. Public and Publicly Guaranteed 1. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 43 a. Third Stage of Agreed Minute of May 25, b. Contracted after October 31, Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt Multilateral Agencies 48 B. Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed 50 III- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 51

33 Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 25, , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 19, , , , May 1991 (Third Stage) 15, , , , Non-Guaranteed Debt {2} Post Cut-Off Date 4, , , , B. Non- Paris Club Bilateral Debt , , C. Multilateral Agencies 4, , , , D. Sovereign Bonds 1, Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Short-Term Debt 2, , , , Deposits (Non Residents) Arab International Bank Deposit Other Grand Total 28, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} Debt owed to Paris Club member countries but not guaranteed by them. Figure Table ( 1 ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of September Total Debt (US$mn){1} ( US$bn ) Total External Debt Stock as at End of September

34 Figure 1-1 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt as at End of September 2004 Multilateral Agencies 19% Sovereign Bonds 2% Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt 4% Paris Club Bilateral Debt 75%

35 Table ( 2 ) Stock of Medium - and Long - Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of September (US$mn){1} Total Debt Country Int'l Organizations 4, , , , France 4, , , , United States 5, , , , Japan 3, , , , Germany, Fed.R.of 2, , , , Italy 1, Spain Sovereign Bonds 1, Austria Switzerland Bahrain Kuwait United Kingdom Canada Australia Denmark Saudi Arabia China.P.R.of Belgium The Netherlands United Arab Emirates Sweden Norway Germany Dem. R Taiwan Turkey Romania Bulgaria India Grand Total 25, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate

36 Figure 2 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public And Publicly Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country as at End of September 2004 Germany, Fed.R.of 11% Sovereign Bonds 2% Italy 3% International Organizations 19% Japan 15% France 18% Others 15% United States 17%

37 Country (US$mn){2} France 4, , , , United States 5, , , , Japan 3, , , , Germany, Fed. R. of 2, , , , Italy 1, Spain Austria Switzerland United Kingdom Canada Australia Denmark Belgium The Netherlands Sweden Norway Grand Total 19, , , , {1} This Table is the total of Tables No 4,5 and 7. {2} End of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Table ( 3 ) {1} Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of September Total Debt Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of September ( US$bn )

38 Table ( 4 ) Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of September Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} France 3, , , , United States 4, , , , Japan 2, , , , Germany, Fed. R. of 1, , , , Spain Austria Italy Switzerland United Kingdom Australia Canada Denmark The Netherlands Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 15, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Third Stage of The Agreed Minute on May 25,1991 as at End of September ( US$bn )

39 Table ( 5 ) Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt Contracted after October 31,1986 as at End of September Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Germany, Fed. R. of , , Japan 1, , , United States France Italy Spain Austria Switzerland Denmark Canada Belgium Sweden The Netherlands United Kingdom Grand Total 4, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 5 4,800 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Contracted after October 31, 1986 as at End of September ( US$mn ) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,

40 Figure 5-1 Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public And Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of September 2004 Post Cut-Off Date 22% May 1991 (Third Stage) 78%

41 Table ( 6 ) Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of September Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Bahrain Kuwait Saudi Arabia China P. R. of United Arab Emirates Taiwan Germany Dem. R Turkey Romania Bulgaria India Grand total , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 6 1,200 1,000 Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Bilateral Debt as at End of September ( US$mn )

42 Table ( 7 ) Stock of Medium - and Long - Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of September Creditor Total Debt (US$mn){1} IDA 1, , , , European Investment Bank , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development IBRD African Development Bank Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank African Development Fund International Fund For Agricultural Development Arab Trade Financing Programme (ATFP) Arab International Bank Nordic Investment Bank Grand Total 4, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 7 5,200 5,000 4,800 Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of September ( US$mn ) 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,

43 Figure 7-1 Stock of Medium- and Long- Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Agencies as at End of September 2004 African Development Bank 6% IBRD 9% Arab Monetary Fund 6% IDA 27% Others 11% AFESD 19% European Investment Bank 22%

44 Table ( 8 ) Stock of Medium - and Long - Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of September Country Total Debt (US$mn){1} Int'l Organizations United Arab Emirates United Kingdom Austria United States Italy Germany, Fed. R. of Sudan France Spain Grand Total {1} End of period exchange rate. Figure 8 Stock of Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt as at End of September ( US$mn )

45 Table ( 9 ) Outstanding External Short -Term Debt as at End of September Total Debt (US$mn){1} Short-Term Debt {2} 1, , , , Non-Financial Public Sector Financial Public Sector {2} Private Sector Guaranteed Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 1, , Arab International Bank Deposit Short-Term Banking Facilities Public Sector Banks Private Banks Grand Total 2, , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. (2) Excludes banking facilities. Figure 9 2,500 Outstanding External Short-Term Debt as at End of September 2,000 ( US$mn ) 1,500 1,

46 Table ( 10 ) Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of September 2004 (US$mn){1} Contracted Cancelled Net Disbursed Undisbursed Amounts {2} Amounts Commitment Amounts Amounts 1- Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 55, , , , , A. Paris Club Bilateral Debt 35, , , May 1991 (Third Stage) 20, , , Non-Guaranteed Debt {2} 2, , , Post Cut-Off Date 12, , , B. Non- Paris Club Bilateral Debt 3, , , C. Multilateral Agencies 15, , , , , Medium-and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt 1, , , Grand Total 56, , , , , {1} End of period exchange rate. {2} As of Figure 10 60,000 Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts of Contracted Loans as at End of September 50,000 ( US$mn ) 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, Contracted Amounts Net Commitment Disbursed Amounts

47 Table ( 11 ) Medium - and long - Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of October 1, 2004 (US$mn){1} Period Principal {2} Interest ( * ) Total Period Principal {2} Interest Total 2004/ / / / / / / / /2(**) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2(***) / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Grand Total 31, , , {1} The exchange rate of September 30, {2} Includes assumptions on disbursement of undisbursed portion of contracted loans - see Table (12) for disbursement assumptions. (*) Includes projections for interest for US$ millions sovereign bonds up to 2011/2. (**) Includes US$ 500 million sovereign bonds. (***) Includes US$ 96.8 million sovereign bonds.

48 Figure 11 5,200 5,000 4,800 4,600 4,400 4,200 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, US$ mn Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of October 1, Principal {2} Interest ( * ) Total

49 Table ( 12 ) Medium - and Long - Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Bilateral Debt as of October 1, 2004 (US$mn){1} Period Principal {2} Interest Total Period Principal {2} Interest Total 2004/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / Grand Total 20, , , {1} The exchange rate of September 30, {2} Includes assumptions on disbursement of undisbursed portion of contracted loans - see Table (12) for disbursement assumptions