Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy July/December 2016/17 Volume No. (56)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions. Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings. The report contains 6 sections. The first three give a performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP), International Investment Position (IIP) and its external liquidity. The fourth and fifth review developments related to Egypt s external debt in its different classifications, in addition to the Egyptian pound exchange rate performance. The sixth section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned five sections. This is in addition to a glossary. The report is downloadable from CBE website Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents Overview Page Section I: Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP Performance 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 4 Section II: International Investment Position (IIP) 7 Section III: Section IV: External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 9 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 9 External Debt A - Breakdown by Maturity 11 B - Breakdown by Type 12 C - Breakdown by Currency 12 D - Breakdown by Creditor 13 E - Breakdown by Debtor 13 F - External Debt Indicators 14 Section V: Exchange Rate Developments 15 Section VI: Statistics Appendix I 1- Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) NIR & NFA at Banks External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators External Debt by Debtor Foreign Exchange Rates 27

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents (Cont.) Page Appendix II A- Medium- and Long-Term External Debt B- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar 67 Appendix III Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 71 Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 72 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 73 Box. (4): Tourism Sector Performance 74 Glossary 75

5 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Striving to bolster confidence in the Egyptian economy and achieve monetary stability, the CBE has taken several measures on 3 November, 2016 to rectify exchange rate policy by moving to a liberalized exchange rate regime, so that banks would be at liberty to quote and trade at any exchange rate. This move would allow the CBE to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market and put foreign exchange activity back on the right and formal track through eradicating the parallel market altogether. Undoubtedly, the CBE s Decision to liberalize the exchange rate regime would lead to the steady accumulation of foreign currency reserves through the formal channels. Egypt s transactions with the external world unfolded an overall BOP surplus of US$ 7.0 billion during July/December 2016/2017 (against an overall deficit of US$ 3.4 billion in the same period a year earlier). The capital and financial account unfolded a net inflow of US$ 17.6 billion (against US$ 6.2 billion). Meanwhile, the current account deficit registered US$ 9.6 billion (against US$ 9.4 billion). The increase in the capital and financial account was mainly traceable to the following developments: the net inflow of FDI in Egypt mounted to US$ 4.3 billion and portfolio investment in Egypt achieved a net inflow of US$ million. Also, the net change in the liabilities of the CBE to the external world increased, registering a net inflow of US$ 8.1 billion. The increase in the current account deficit came basically on account of the following developments: the trade deficit narrowed to US$ 17.9 billion (from US$ 19.9 billion), and the services surplus declined by 47.2%. The income balance recorded a net outflow of US$ 2.2 billion. Also unrequited current transfers (net) declined to US$ 8.0 billion (from US$ 8.3 billion). Overview Egypt s International Investment Position (IIP) at end of December 2016 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 9.0 percent compared to end-june Net International Reserves (NIR) increased by US$ 6.7 billion, to reach US$ 24.3 billion, thus covering 5.1 months of merchandise imports at end of December The increase in NIR was an outcome of the rise of foreign currencies by about US$ 7.0 billion and the decline of gold by around US$ 0.3 billion. During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 28.6 billion at end of April Banks net foreign assets declined by around US$ 1.5 billion during July/ December 2016/2017. Foreign currency deposits with banks decreased by 0.6 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 36.3 billion at end of December As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 29.0 percent. Total external debt increased by about 20.7 percent to about US$ 67.3 billion at end of December 2016, from US$ 55.7 billion at end of June The external debt remains within manageable limits, and its position continues to have a favorable structure, as 82.3 percent of the debt are medium and long-term. The data of the weighted average of the inter-bank foreign exchange market rate revealed that the Egyptian pound inter-bank rate depreciated by 51.9 percent during July/Dec. 2016/2017, as the EGP reached per US dollar at end of December 2016, against EGP per US dollar at end of June This came in the wake of the Decision of the liberalization of the Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016.

6 Section I Balance of Payments (BOP)

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's transactions with the external world ran an overall BOP surplus of US$ 7.0 billion in the first half of 2016/2017 (against an overall deficit of US$ 3.4 billion in the same period a year earlier). The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 17.6 billion (against US$ 6.2 billion). The current account deficit registered US$ 9.6 billion (against US$ 9.4 billion). Chart (1) shows the developments in Egypt s BOP main components, on quarterly basis. US$ bn Chart (1) : Egypt's BOP Main Components Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Capital & Financial Account Overall Balance 2015/ /2017 Current Account BOP Performance 1.1: Trade on Goods Trade volume has slightly increased by 1.7 percent, to reach US$ 38.8 billion (13.9 percent of GDP) during July/December 2016/17. The trade deficit decreased by US$ 2.0 billion, to US$ 17.9 billion (6.4 percent of GDP) from US$ 19.9 billion (5.7 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: Merchandise exports increased by 14.4 percent to US$ 10.4 billion, due to the increase in non-oil exports by 25.1 percent, to reach US$ 7.5 billion (71.9 percent of total exports) and the decrease in oil exports by 6.1 percent to reach US$ 2.9 billion (28.1 percent of total exports). As a result, the exports/ imports ratio mounted to 36.9 percent, from 31.5 percent. Merchandise imports decreased by 2.3 percent to US$ 28.3 billion, reflecting the decrease in both oil imports by 5.8 percent to US$ 5.1 billion (18.1 percent of total imports), and non-oil imports by 1.6 percent to US$ 23.2 billion (81.9 percent of total imports). 1- Current Account The increase in the current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: The decline in the trade deficit to US$ 17.9 billion (from US$ 19.9 billion), and in unrequited current transfers (net) to US$ 8.0 billion (from US$ 8.3 billion). Also, the services surplus decreased by 47.2%, and the income balance recorded a net outflow of US$ 2.2 billion. The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by degree of processing and imports by degree of use during July/December 2016/ US$ bn Chart (2): Oil & Non-oil Exports and Imports July / December 2014/ / /2017 oil exports non-oil exports oil imports non-oil imports Trade balance

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 10.4 bn Chart (6) : Imports by Geographical Distribution July /December 2016/2017 African Countries (Non-Arab) 1.5% Other Countries 11.6% EU 28.5% Fuel, mineral oils & products 29.1% Raw materials 6.7 % Semifinished goods 17.6% Finished goods 46.6% Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 19.8% Arab Countries 19.3% USA 5.7% Other EU Countries 6.8% Russian Federation & C.I.S 6.8% Fuel, mineral oils & products 18.7% Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports Raw materials 10.3% US$ 28.3 bn, of which Intermediate goods 26.7% Investment goods 16.0% Consumer goods 23.9% Hereunder is the geographical distribution of merchandise exports and imports: Chart (5) : Exports by Geographical Distribution July/December 2016/2017 Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 7.7% African Countries (Non-Arab) 2.8% Arab Countries 32.3% Other Countries 10.3% USA 8.0% EU 30.2% Russian Federation &C.I.S 0.5% Other EU Countries 8.2% - Egypt's main trade partners, in terms of exports, were UAE, USA, Italy, UK, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Lebanon, and Spain. These countries, combined, accounted for some 53.6 percent of total exports. - As for imports, Egypt's trade partners were China, USA, UAE, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Italy, UK, Turkey, Switzerland and France. These countries, combined, accounted for some 50.3 percent of total imports. 1.2: Services Balance The surplus on services balance fell to about US$ 2.5 billion (against about US$ 4.7 billion), due to the decline in services receipts and the rise in services payments, as follows: US$ bn Chart (7) : Services Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015/ /2017 Services Receipts Services Balance Services Payments 1.2.1: Services receipts fell by 19.5 percent, to some US$ 7.3 billion (from about US$ 9.1 billion), driven by the decrease in most of their items as follows: Tourism revenues by 41.5 percent to about US$ 1.6 billion (from some US$ 2.7 billion), as a result of the 49.8 percent fall in tourist nights, which registered 19.2 million nights (versus 38.3 million). (see Box 4)

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 3 Transportation receipts by 12.9 percent to about US$ 4.4 billion (against some US$ 5.0 billion), due to the fall in the receipts of aviation & navigation companies, along with the drop in Suez Canal dues to about US$ 2.5 billion (from some US$ 2.6 billion), owing, in turn, to the fall in net tonnage by 2.5 percent, and in SDR against the US dollar by 1.1 percent. Government services receipts by 39.6 percent to US$ million (from US$ million), reflecting the fall in expenses of Egyptian embassies abroad. On the other hand, other services receipts rose by 6.3 percent, to about US$ 1.24 billion (from about US$ 1.16 billion), due to the rise in the fees of entertainment, cultural and recreational services, advertising and marketing research services, and legal & consulting fees. US$ bn Chart (8): Service Balances Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015/ /2017 Other Services Balance Government Services Balance Tourism Services Balance Transportation Services Balance Services Balance 1.2.2: Services payments rose by 9.6 percent, to about US$ 4.9 billion (against about US$ 4.4 billion). This was attributed to the following developments: Other services payments rose by 27.5 percent, to about US$ 2.1 billion (against about US$ 1.7 billion), driven by higher payments for other services, computer services and fees for entertainment, and cultural and recreational services. Government services payments rose by 22.8 percent to US$ million (against US$ million). Travel payments rose by 1.1 percent to some US$ 1.74 billion (against US$ 1.72 billion), due to the rise in E-card payments by 23.1 percent to about US$ 1.2 billion (against US$ million), and the rise in expenses of tourism and medical care. On the other hand, transportation payments fell by 17.4 percent, to US$ million (against US$ million), on account of the decline in the amounts transferred for repair of aircrafts at foreign airports and that transferred by foreign navigation companies, as well as transfers for transportation services. 1.3: Income Balance The income balance deficit fell by 8.3 percent, to about US$ 2.2 billion (from about US$ 2.4 billion). This was a result of the following developments: Investment income payments fell by 8.2 percent to some US$ 2.4 billion (from about US$ 2.6 billion), as a result of lower profit transfers of foreign companies in Egypt. Investment income receipts fell by 7.4 percent to US$ million (from US$ million), mainly due to the fall in transfer of profits from Egyptian companies' branches abroad and interest and dividends on bonds and securities.

10 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 US$ bn Chart (9): Income Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015/ /2017 Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance Chart (11): External Balance Indicators July-December 2016/2017 Current Receipts / Current Payments Services Receipts / Services Payments 2015/ /2017 Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 2- Capital and Financial Account 1.4: Unrequited current transfers (Net) Unrequited current transfers (net) decreased by 3.3 percent, to about US$ 8.0 billion, (from some US$ 8.3 billion). This was mainly due to the decrease in net private transfers to about US$ 7.9 billion (from some US$ 8.2 billion) as a result of the fall in workers' remittances by 5.7 percent as shown in chart (10). On the other hand, net official transfers rose to US$ 72.9 million (from US$ 32.2 million) due to the increase of cash & commodity grants received by the government. US$ bn Chart (10) : Remittances of Egyptians working abroad Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2015/ /2017 Against this background, some of the external balance indicators decreased as shown in chart (11). The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of US$ 17.6 billion (against US$ 6.2 billion in the period of comparison) as an outcome of the following factors: A- Total FDI inflows rose by US$ 1.3 billion to US$ 7.4 billion (from US$ 6.1 billion), while total outflows registered US$ 3.1 billion (versus US$ 3.0 billion). Accordingly, the net inflow of FDI in Egypt mounted to US$ 4.3 billion (from US$ 3.1 billion). To elaborate, net inflows for oil sector investments rose by US$ 1.7 billion to US$ 1.8 billion (from US$ million), while those for greenfield investments reached US$ 2.46 billion (against US$ 2.48 billion). The sectorial breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (12) shows that the oil sector has the biggest share of 55.8 percent. As regards the other sectors, the majority of FDI went to the services sectors, with 6.1 percent distributed as follows: the financial sector (2.2 percent), the real estate sector (0.7 percent), and other services sectors (3.2 percent). The share of the manufacturing sector was 1.7 percent and the construction sector 0.5 percent. The remaining portion was acquired by undistributed sectors (35.9 percent).

11 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 Construction sector 0,5% Chart (12) : Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sectors July -December 2016/2017 Manufacturing sector 1,7% Petroleum sector 55,8% Undistributed sectors 35,9% Services sector 6,1% Real Estate sector 0,7% Financial sector 2,2% Other Services 3,2% B- Portfolio investment in Egypt recorded a net inflow of US$ million in July/Dec (against a net outflow of US$ 1.6 billion). This was ascribable to the rise in foreigners' investments on the EGX, recording net purchases of US$ million (versus net sales of US$ million). In addition, foreigners' investments in Egyptian treasury bills increased, to register net purchases of US$ million (against net sales of US$ 38.3 million). This came despite the Egyptian authorities' repayment of bonds that had fallen due in the reporting period, in the amount of US$ 1.0 billion (outflows). This attests to the confidence in the Egyptian economy, given its ability to honor its external obligations. C- Medium- and long-term loans and facilities resulted in net disbursements of US$ 3.9 billion (against net repayments of US$ million). This was an outcome of the rise in total disbursements to some US$ 5.4 billion (from US$ 1.2 billion), and the rise in total repayments to US$ 1.5 billion (from US$ 1.4 billion). D- Short-term suppliers' credit realized net drawings of US$ 2.1 billion (against about US$ 4.0 billion). E- The net change in the liabilities of the CBE to the external world increased, thus registering a net inflow of US$ 8.1 billion (against US$ 1.5 billion). F- The net change in banks' liabilities declined, recording as such a net inflow of US$ 1.5 billion (versus US$ 2.4 billion).

12 Section II International Investment Position (IIP)

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 International Investment Position (IIP) At end of December 2016* Egypt s IIP at end of December 2016, recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 9.0 percent compared to end of June. As such, Egypt s foreign assets represented about 28.4 percent of its foreign liabilities. US$ billion Chart (1) International Investment Position (IIP) End of Source: Appendix I, table (2) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Assets Liabilities Net IIP Egypt's preliminary IIP data at end of December 2016 showed an increase in both Egypt's total assets and liabilities compared to the position at end of June, to record net liabilities of about US$ billion versus US$ billion. Egypt's total financial assets increased by US$ 6.5 billion, to reach US$ 49.0 billion in December 2016, up by 15.3 percent compared to June. Total financial liabilities amounted to US$ billion, increasing by about US$ 16.7 billion or 10.7 percent, compared to June. Assets and Liabilities by Component: 1- Assets increased by 15.3 percent to reach US$ 49.0 billion at end of December 2016, from US$ 42.5 billion at end of June Chart (2) Breakdown of Assets by Component Reserve assets 48.1% Assets Dec Direct investment abroad 14.7% Portfolio investment 2.9% Other investment 34.3% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - Reserve assets increased by 38.0 percent to about US$ 23.6 billion. - Foreign direct investment increased by 1.4 percent to about US$ 7.2 billion. - Portfolio investment abroad increased by 7.7 percent to about US$ 1.4 billion. * Released as of September 2009 according to SDDS requirements.

14 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 - However, other investments' assets decreased by about 1.2 percent, to reach about US$ 16.8 billion. 2- Liabilities to non-residents increased by 10.7 percent to about US$ billion at end of December Chart (3) Breakdown of Liabilities by Component Other investment 37.5% Portfolio investment 3.3% Liabilities Dec Direct investment in Egypt 59.2% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - FDI in Egypt increased by 4.3 percent to about US$ billion. - Other investments' liabilities increased by 23.9 percent to about US$ 64.7 billion. - Portfolio investment in Egypt remained unchanged at US$ 5.7 billion compared to June Indicators: - Egypt s negative net IIP to GDP at end of December 2016 increased to about 69.1 percent, versus about 36.8 percent at end of June. % Chart (4) Net IIP to GDP End of Q1 Q2 Q3 Q Assets to liabilities increased from about 27.2 percent, to about 28.4 percent at end of December % Chart (5) IIP Assets/Liabilities Ratio End of Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2016

15 Section III External Liquidity

16 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 External Liquidity A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market, the CBE announced on November 3, 2016 its decision to move, with immediate effect, to a liberalized exchange rate regime. This move would allow market demand and supply dynamics to work effectively in creating an environment of reliable and sustainable provision of foreign currencies. Moreover, it would improve the deepening of foreign currency liquidity, while streamlining activity into the formal channels. During July/December 2016/2017, NIR increased by US$ 6.7 billion (against a decline of US$ 3.6 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier) to reach US$ 24.3 billion, thus covering 5.1 months of merchandise imports at end of December US$ bn Chart (1): NIR & Months of Imports Covered (Balance at End of the Month) Month The increase was an outcome of the rise of foreign currencies by about US$ 7.0 billion and the decline of gold by around US$ 0.3 billion. During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 28.6 billion at end of April End of June 2016 (US$ mn) Dec Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months of Imports B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets declined by around US$ 1.5 billion during July/ December 2016/2017 (against about US$ 3.9 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier). US$ bn 20.0 Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks (End of the Month) Assets Liabilities June 2015 Dec June 2016 Dec Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Gold Reserves/Months of Imports 0.0 June 15 Dec.15 June 16 Dec. 16

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 10 Foreign currency deposits with banks decreased by 0.6 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 36.3 billion at end of December On the contrary, local currency deposits increased by 13.1 percent. LE bn Chart (3): Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies (End of the Month) % As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits made up 29.0 percent at end of December June 15 Dec. 15 June 16 Dec. 16 Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits 0-5 Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

18 Section IV External Debt

19 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 Egypt's external debt of all maturities increased by US$ 11.6 billion (20.7 percent), to post US$ 67.3 billion at end of December 2016 (compared with about US$ 55.7 billion at end of June 2016). This came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 13.0 billion, and the depreciation of most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar by US$ 1.4 billion. A- Breakdown by Maturity By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed its usual pattern of longterm external debt predominance at end of December Long-term external debt accounted for US$ 37.7 billion or 56.0 percent of the total, whereas medium-term external debt reached US$ 17.7 billion or 26.3 percent and shortterm external debt accounted for the smallest portion of US$ 11.9 billion or 17.7 percent. External Debt By residual maturity 1, mediumand long-term external debt decreased, as it represented 73.9 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 82.3 percent of the total by original maturity. Similarly, short-term debt showed an increase, as it represented 26.1 percent, compared to 17.7 percent classified by original maturity. External Debt by Residual Maturity at end of December 2016 (US$ million) 1. Short-term debt by original maturity Medium- & long-term debt maturing within one year External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) Percentage to Total External Debt 26.1% Percentage to NIR 72.3% 4. Medium- & long-term debt by residual maturity Percentage to Total External Debt 73.9% chart (1) External Debt Structure by Original Maturity End of Dec Short - term debt 17.7 % Medium - term debt 26.3 % Long - term debt 56.0 % 1 While the analytical presentation of external debt by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due -under medium-and longterm debt by original maturity- within one year or less.

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 12 B- Breakdown by Type Medium- and long-term external debt accounted for 82.3 percent of total debt, of which: Rescheduled bilateral debt reached about US$ 4.3 billion or 6.5 percent of total debt. Other bilateral debt amounted to about US$ 5.1 billion or 7.5 percent of total debt. Buyers' & Suppliers' * credit reached about US$ 5.4 billion or 8.1 percent of total debt. International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 19.5 billion or 29.0 percent of total debt. Government bonds and notes reached about US$ 2.7 billion or 4.0 percent of total debt at end of December These include: (i) US$ million of sovereign notes issued in April 2010 and falling due in 2020 & 2040; (ii) US$ million of the 5 year Treasury bonds issued in June 2012 and falling due in June 2017; and (iii) US$ 1.2 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) issued in 2015 and falling due in Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries valued at US$ 18.2 billion (27.0 percent of total debt). Non-guaranteed medium- and long-term debt of the private sector registered US$ million (about 0.2 percent of total debt). Short-term debt increased by about US$ 4.9 billion to about US$ 11.9 billion or 17.7 percent of total debt. Private Sector (Nonguaranteed) 0.2% Short term debt 17.7% Long -term Deposits 27.0% Chart (2) External Debt Structure End of Dec Rescheduled bilateral debt 6.5% Egyptian bonds and notes 4.0% Other bilateral debt 7.5 % C- Breakdown by Currency Suppliers' & buyers' Credits 8.1% International & regional organizations 29.0% Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 68.7 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the African Development Bank (AFDB) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IBRD). Including the Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) from China Development Bank (CDB) to CBE of about US$ 0.9 billion.

21 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 13 Other important currencies accounted for 30.2 percent of the total debt, as follows: the Euro is the runner-up (11.4 percent), followed by the Special Drawing Rights * (8.2 percent, the Chinese Yuan (3.8 percent), the Kuwaiti dinar (3.5 percent), and the Japanese yen (3.3 percent). Kuwaiti dinar 3.5 % SDRs 8.2% Japanese yen 3.3% Euro 11.4% Chart (3) External Debt structure by Currencies End of Dec Other currencies 1.1 % Chinese Yuan 3.8% US dollar 68.7% D- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor country indicates that 32.1 percent was owed to Arab countries (mainly United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia ** and Kuwait), and that 29.0 percent was owed to international organizations *** (mainly the World Bank 5.7 percent, IMF 5.7 percent, EIB 3.2 percent and ADF & AFDB 3.3 percent). Meanwhile, 19.8 percent of Egypt's external debt came from five countries; namely Germany (7.1 percent), UK (5.0 percent), Japan (3.2 percent), USA (2.6 percent), and France (1.9 percent). United kingdom 5.0% France 1.9% USA 2.6% Japan 3.2% Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor End of Dec Germany 7.1% Other countries 15.1% International & regional organizations 29.0% Egyptian bonds and notes 4.0% Arab Countries 32.1% Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. It does not include the US$ 500 million which is classified as a 5-year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development. International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank ( EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB). E- Breakdown by Debtor The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor reveals that the monetary authority is the main debtor, with a share of US$ 30.2 billion at end of December 2016, (owing to the pickup in deposits of Arab countries), compared with about US$ 22.2 billion at end of June Central and local government external debt at end of December 2016, increased by US$1.8 billion to US$ 26.3 billion. - Other sectors' debt increased by US$ 1.4 billion to US$ 6.6 billion. - Banks' external debt increased by US$ 0.3 billion to US$ 4.2 billion. (US$ bn) (US$ bn) (4.0) Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor End of Dec Other Sectors Banks Monetary Authority Central & Local Government Chart (6) External Debt by Debtor Share in total increase/decrease During July/ Dec. (0.6) 0.2 (0.3) 1.5 (1.9) 0.3 (0.2) / / /2017 Central & Local Government Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors 1.4

22 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 14 F- External Debt Indicators* The ratio of short-term external debt to net international reserves increased to 49.2 percent at end of December 2016 (from 26.9 percent at end of December 2015). In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 17.7 percent (against 9.3 percent). The external debt per capita increased to US$ at end of December 2016 (from US$ at end of December 2015). As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, the debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification **, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups shows that:- - Egypt's debt stock to GDP (37.6 percent) is among the world's best levels (16.3 percent for Asian developing countries and 68.3 percent for East and Central Europe). - Egypt's medium- and long-term external debt to total external debt at end of December 2016 represented 82.3 percent (94.1 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa and 61.3 percent for Asian developing countries). - Egypt's debt service ratio *** registered 20.6 percent during July/Dec. 2016/2017 (57.5 percent for East and Central Europe, and 20.1 percent for Sub- Saharan Africa). * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 6. ** Source: World & Regional Economic Outlook Reports, Oct. 2016, and CBE database. *** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service (interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country s debt burden. Medium- and long-term debt service reached US$ 3.6 billion during July/Dec (US$ 3.1 billion for principal repayments and US$ 0.5 billion for interest payments) % (US$) % Chart (7) External Debt Indicators End of Dec Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services (July/Dec) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP External Debt per capita (US$) (right axis)

23 Section V Exchange Rate Developments

24 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 15 Exchange Rate Developments (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : During July/Dec. of FY 2016/2017, the exchange rates of foreign currencies appreciated against the Egyptian pound, on the back of the CBE's decision of liberalization of the EGP. The weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian interbank market recorded LE at end of December 2016, (against LE at the end of June 2016). (ii) Market Rate: At end of December 2016, and according to the foreign exchange market (buying rate) and after the decision of liberalization of Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016, the Egyptian pound depreciated against all foreign currencies. Specifically, the US dollar, Saudi riyal and the UAE dirham increased by percent each, Kuwaiti dinar by percent, Swiss franc by 95.0 percent, Chinese yuan by 94.8 percent, the Euro by 92.5 percent, sterling pound by 86.0 percent and the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 79.7 percent. EGP Chart (1) : Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP (End of Period) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec / /2017 USD Interbank rate(average) USD market rate(buying rate) Euro market rate(buying rate) (Right axis) 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

25 Section VI Statistics

26 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.). 20 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 21 III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 22 IV- External Liquidity NIR & NFA at Banks V- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators. External Debt by Debtor. VI- Exchange Rate Developments Foreign Exchange Rates

27 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 19 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) July /December 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services Balance (Net) Receipts Transportation of which: Suez Canal Travel Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Government Expenditures Other Income Balance (net) Income receipts Income payments of which: Interest paid Transfers Private Transfers (net) of which: Workers' Remittances Official Transfers (net) Current Account Balance

28 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 20 (US$ mn) July /December 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net) of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports. Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.)

29 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 21 Table(2) International Investment Position (IIP) (US$ millions) End of June 2016 December 2016* Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund Other long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Other assets / Liabilities Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Other sectors 4-Reserves assets *Preliminary

30 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 22 Table(3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of December 2016 Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers (US$ millions) Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total Bahamas Bahrain Cayman Islands China, P.R. Mainland Ethiopia France Germany Ireland Italy Japan Jordan Lebanon Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia Singapore Syrian Arab Republic Sudan Switzerland Tunisia Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States International Organizations Total

31 End of Table (4) Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks June 2014 Net International Reserves (1-2) Dec June 2015 Dec June 2016 (US$ mn) Dec Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23 Liabilities

32 End of Table (5) External Debt by Type June2015 December2015 Total External Debt* Medium& long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds & notes Long- term deposits Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other facilities Source: Loans & External Debt Department -CBE. + Provisional * The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, June (US$ mn) December Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24

33 July /December External Debt / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) * Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service / Current Receipts % Interest / Exports (G & S) % External Debt /GDP (at current market prices) Table (6) External Debt Indicators 2012/ / / / (%) 2016/ Central Bank of Egypt - External Position Short-term Debt / total external debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves External Debt per capita (US$) Provisional. * includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresedents

34 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26 Table (7) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2016 % December 2016 * % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes (805.6) (23.1) Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities (46.3) (3.7) Short-Term , Money Market Instruments Loans , Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium- & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans (330.0) (17.3) Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits (336.7) (22.8) Other Liabilities Other Sectors , Medium- & Long-Term , Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credits Loans , Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term (80.7) (4.2) Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credits (80.7) (4.2) Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional.

35 First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit ) End of June 2016 December 2016 Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 27

36 Central Bank of Egypt External Position I- Outstanding External Debt Appendix II Table Outstanding Stock Outstanding Stock by Creditor Country Page - Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor: a. Paris Club Debt 3 35 (1) Rescheduled Debt 4 36 (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b. Supplier's Credit c. Non- Paris Club Debt d. Multilateral Institutions 8 41 e. Bonds & Notes f. Deposits Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country Short-Term External Debt II- Outstanding External Debt By Currencies III- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits IV- Projected Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service 1- External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed a- Paris Club Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b- Supplier's Credit c- Non- Paris Club Debt d- Multilateral Institutions Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Libya Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates V- Projected Short-Term Debt VI- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar

37 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 31 Table ( 1 ) (US$ million) Total Debt Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 42, , , , A. Paris Club Debt 13, , , , Rescheduled Debt 9, , , , Non Rescheduled Debt 4, , , , B- Supplier's Credit C. Non-Paris Club Debt 2, , , , D. Multilateral Institutions 12, , , , (1) E. Bonds &Notes 6, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) (2) , , F. Deposits 9, , , , (3) 2- Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 2, , , , Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , (4) Trade Credits 1, , , , Qatar Deposits Loans , (5) Grand Total 45, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million), US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million and US$ 500 million representing African Export-Import Bank loan. (2) Representing Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) with nominal value US$ 1500 million ( non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 1237 million ) due in June (3) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 6700, 1500,6000 and 4000 million respectively. (4) Includes US$ 2, million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. (5) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million Figure 1-1 Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$bn ) External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December

38 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-2 Supplier's Credit 0.01% Non-Paris Club Debt 6.41% Deposits % Outstanding Stock as at End of December 2016 Short-Term Debt 17.74% Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 0.23% Bonds & Notes 3.99 % Paris Club Debt % Multilateral Institutions Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 32

39 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 33 Table ( 2 ) Outstanding Stock by Creditor Country as at End of December Creditor Countries Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , China , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Kuwait United Arab emirates Italy Turkey 1, , Bahrain Spain United Kingdom Saudi Arabia Denmark Austria The Netherlands Belgium Canada Qatar Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Multilateral Institutions {2} 12, , , , Deposits, Bonds and Notes Deposits 9, , , , Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , {3} Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Guaranteed Notes 1, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 2, , , , African Export - Import Bank , Arab Trade Financing Program REPO Transactions , Currency Swap Agreement (China) , others 2, , , , Grand Total 45, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million), US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million and US$ 500 million representing African Export-Import Bank loan. (3) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 6700, 1500,6000 and 4000 million respectively.

40 Figure 2 Bonds &Notes 4% Japan 3% Germany 7% Outstanding Stock as at End of December 2016 Deposits 27% United States 2 % Multilateral Institutions 29% France 2% Others 8% Short- Term Debt 18% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 34

41 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35 Table ( 3 ) {1} Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Italy Spain United Kingdom Denmark Austria The Netherlands Belgium Canada Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 13, , , , {1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5. {2} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December (US$ million) {2} 20.0 ( US$bn )

42 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} United States 2, , , , Germany 1, , , , Japan 1, , , , France 1, , Spain The Netherlands Denmark Italy Canada Austria United Kingdom Switzerland Belgium Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 9, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 4 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December 15.0 ( US$bn )

43 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 1, , , , Japan France Italy United States United Kingdom Spain Denmark Belgium Austria Switzerland Finland Sweden Grand Total 4, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 7,000 6,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$mn ) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

44 Figure 5-2 Non-Rescheduled Debt 59% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December 2016 Rescheduled Debt 41% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 38

45 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 39 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of December (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Country Canada Italy Japan Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$mn )

46 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 40 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} China , {2} Kuwait United Arab Emirates Turkey 1, , Bahrain Saudi Arabia Qatar Grand Total 2, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 900 million representing China facility agreement. Figure 7 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$mn ) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,

47 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 41 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of December Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) {1} IBRD 3, , , , IMF {2} 1, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , African Development Bank 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , Arab Monetary Fund IDA 1, , African Export - Import Bank Islamic Development Bank OPEC International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation African Development Fund European Bank For Reconstruction and Development International Fund for Agricultural Development Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) Clean Technology Fund Arab Trade Financing Program Grand Total 12, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. Figure ,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$mn ) 15,000 10,000 5,

48 Figure 8-2 AMF 5% African Development Bank 10% Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of December IMF 20% IBRD 32 % IDA 4% European Investment Bank 11% Others 10% AFESD 8% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 42

49 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 43 Table ( 9) Bonds &Notes Outstanding Stock as at End of December Total Debt (US$ million) Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , Grand Total 6, , , ,687.43

50 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 44 Table ( 10 ) Medium and Long-Term Deposits Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$ million) Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , Grand Total 9, , , ,200.00

51 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 45 Table ( 11 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of December Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Multilateral Institutions Luxembourg Germany Bahrain Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 9 Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December ( US$mn )

52 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 46 Table ( 12 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Short-Term Debt Loans , Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , {2} {3} Trade Credits 1, , , , Qatar Deposits Grand Total 2, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million. (3) Includes US$ 2, million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. Figure 10 14,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of December 12,000 10,000 ( US$mn ) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

53 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 47 Table ( 13 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of December (US$ million) (*) Currency Total Debt US Dollar 27, , , , EURO 8, , , , Special Drawing Rights 2, , , , Chinese Yuan , Kuwaiti Dinar 2, , , , Japanese Yen 2, , , , Egyptian Pound Swiss Franc Saudi Riyal Danish Kroner Canadian Dollar U.A.E. Dirham British Pound Sterling Norwegian Kroner Swedish Kroner Australian Dollar Total 45, , , , (*) Using end of period exchange rate.

54 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 48 Table ( 14 ) Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit from 1/1/2014 to 31/12/2016 Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 31, , , A. Paris Club Debt 6, , , Non-Rescheduled Debt 6, , , B. Non-Paris Club Debt 3, , C. Multilateral Institutions 11, , , D. Deposits 10, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 31, , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 12 16, , Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits from 1/1/2009 to 31/12/2016 (US$ million) {1} ( US$mn ) 12, , , , , , Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

55 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 49 Table ( 15 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H1 (2) , /H /H , /H /H1 (3) , /H /H2 (4) , /H /H1 (5) , /H /H2 (6) , /H /H1 (7) , /H /H , /H /H , /H1 (10) /H , /H /H , /H /H2 (8) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (9) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 54, (11) 6, (12) 60, (1) The exchange rate of Desember 31, (2) Includes US$ million Saudi bond maturing (3) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (4) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (5) Includes US$ 2433 million deposits maturing (6) Includes US$ 2100 million deposits maturing (7) Includes US$ million sovereign notes & US$ 2435 million deposits maturing (8) Includes US$ 1000 million deposits maturing (9) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) maturing (10) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (11) Excludes US$ million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (12) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. (US$ million) (1)

56 Figure 15 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, ,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 50

57 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 51 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 10, , , {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, Table ( 16 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Debt as of January 1, 2017

58 Figure 16 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 52 Principal Interest Total

59 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 53 Table ( 17 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, 2016.

60 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 54 Table ( 18 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 6, , {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt

61 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 55 Table ( 19 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Supplier's Credit as of January 1, 2017 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, 2016.

62 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 56 Table ( 20 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Non-Paris Club Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , {1} The exchange rate of desember 31, 2016.

63 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 57 Table ( 21 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as ofjanuary 1, 2017 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 18, (2) 2, (3) 20, {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, (2) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. Multilateral Institutions

64 Figure 21 US$ mn Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions as of January 1, Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 58

65 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 59 Table ( 22 ) Projected Sovereign Notes (*) Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total , (*) Consists of Two Notes The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 5.75 % issued on 29/4/2010 and due on 29/4/2020. The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 500 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed issued on 30/4/2010 and due on 30/4/2040. (US$ million)

66 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 60 Table ( 23 ) Projected Saudi Bond (*) Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H Grand Total (*) The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : 5.00 %, issued on 1/6/2012 and due on 1/6/2017.

67 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 61 Table ( 24 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) (*) Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1500 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 11/6/2015 and due on 11/6/2025.

68 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 62 Table ( 25 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H /H Grand Total 4, (*) , (*) Consists of Two Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Libor 12 months deposited on 24/9/2013 and due on 24/9/2018 Paid on annual basis. The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 21/4/2015 and due on 21/4/2018, 21/4/2019 and 21/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

69 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 63 Table ( 26 ) Projected Medium Term Deposits for Libya as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H Grand Total 1, (*) , (*) No Interest Rate, deposited on 12/4/2013 and due from 11/7/2016 up to 11/4/2018 Quarterly (Each quarter amount: US$ 250 MM).

70 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 64 Table ( 27 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H2 2, , /H Grand Total 6, (*) , (*) Consists of Four Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding now is US$ 700 MM), Interest Rate is Libor 3 months deposited on 9/5/2012 and due from 9/11/2015 up to 9/5/2020 (Equal 10 semiannual installment, USD 100 MM). The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 19/7/2013 and due on 19/7/2018. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 1.00 % deposited on 23/9/2016 and due on 23/9/2019 Interest Paid on Quarterly-annual basis.

71 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 65 Table ( 28 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates as of January 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H1 1, , /H /H1 1, , /H /H /H /H /H2 1, , Grand Total 6, (*) , (*) Consists of Four Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 17/7/2018 The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 30/5/2019, 30/5/2020 and 30/5/2021 (Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 4.00 % deposited on 31/8/2016 and due on 31/8/2022 Interest Paid on monthly basis.

72 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 66 Table ( 29 ) Projected Short-Term Debt Debt Service as of January 1, 2017 (US$ million){1} Period Principal Interest Total January-17 1, , February March April May June July August September October November-17 4, , December-17 3, , Grand Total 11, , {1} The exchange rate of Desember 31, 2016.

73 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 67 Table ( 30 ) Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar as at End of December Country Currency United States USD Switzerland CHF Denmark DKK Egypt EGP Sweden SEK Japan JPY India INR United Kingdom GBP Canada CAD Australia AUD Norway NOK Euro EURO Special Drawing Rights SDR Kuwait KWD United Arab Emirates AED Saudi Arabia SAR Chinese Yuan CNY

74 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix III Box Page I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 1 71 II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions III- Doing Business in Egypt 3 73 IIII- Tourism Sector Performance Glossary. 75

75 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 71 Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for redissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data category, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below. On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of external position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity. SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International Investment Position (IIP) Quarterly 1 quarter External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1

76 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 72 Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2016) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable are the Egyptian official data. Egypt ranked 15 th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 147 developing countries and 1 st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 87.8 points, compared to 91.1 points in This score puts Egypt among the top 15 country group score list, ranging between points. These countries can be distinguished and noticed easily on the map by countries colored dark green, as shown above. Statistical Capacity Indicator 2015 (on a scale of 0-100) Indicator Egypt All Countries Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & timeliness A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 147 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & Timeliness Egypt All Countries As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators, getting the highest score of 100 points on the scale in the source data sub-indicator. * Source: bbsc.worldbank.org, accessed in December, 2016.