Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy FY 2015/16 Volume No. (54)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions. Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings. The report contains 7 sections. The first two give a performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP) and the tourism sector performance. The third and fourth review developments related to the International Investment Position (IIP) and external liquidity. The fifth and sixth show Egypt's external debt in its different classifications and the exchange rate developments. The last section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above mentioned six sections. This is in addition to a glossary. The report is downloadable from CBE website Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Section I: Table of Contents Page Overview Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP Performance. 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 4 Section II: Tourism Sector Performance Summary: 7 A- Tourism Sector Performance 7 B- Hotel Sector Performance 8 Section III: International Investment Position (IIP) 11 Section IV: Section V: External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 13 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 13 External Debt A - Breakdown by Maturity 15 B - Breakdown by Type 16 C - Breakdown by Currency 16 D - Breakdown by Creditor 17 E - Breakdown by Debtor 17 F- External Debt Indicators 18 Section VI: Exchange Rate Developments 19 Section VII: Statistics Section Appendix I 1- Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) NIR & NFA at Banks External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators External Debt by Debtor Foreign Exchange Rates 31 Appendix II A- Outstanding External Debt B- Projected Medium & Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar 69 Appendix III Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 73 Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 74 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 75 Box. (4): Tourism Market Diversification 76 Glossary 77

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Egypt's transactions with the external world recorded an overall BOP deficit of about US$ 2.8 billion during FY 2015/16 (versus a surplus of about US$ 3.7 billion a year earlier). The current account deficit widened to some US$ 18.7 billion (from about US$ 12.1 billion), and the capital and financial account registered a higher net inflow of US$ 19.9 billion (compared with US$ 17.9 billion). The current account deficit was mainly traceable to a roughly US$ 37.6 billion deficit in the trade balance (against about US$ 39.1 billion), and to the retreat in net unrequited current transfers to about US$ 16.9 billion in the reporting year (compared with about US$ 21.9 billion ). Also, the services & income balance surplus fell to around US$ 2.1 billion (from about US$ 5.0 billion). The capital and financial account revealed net inflows of around US$ 19.9 billion (against about US$ 17.9 billion). Egypt's International Investment Position (IIP)* at end of June 2016 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 2.6 percent compared to March Net International Reserves (NIR) decreased by US$ 2.5 billion during FY 2015/2016 to reach US$ 17.5 billion at end of June 2016, thus covering 3.7 months of merchandise imports. Overview The decrease was an outcome of the decline of foreign currencies by about US$ 2.3 billion, and SDRs by US$ 0.4 billion, and the rise of gold by US$ 0.2 billion. During the report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 19.0 billion at end of October Banks' net foreign assets declined by around US$ 8.3 billion during FY 2015/2016. Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 5.7 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 36.6 billion at end of June As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 18.5 percent. Total external debt increased by about 16.0 percent to about US$ 55.8 billion at end of June 2016, from US$ 48.1 billion at end of June The external debt remained within manageable limits and its position continued to have a favorable structure, as 87.4 percent of the debt are medium and long-term. The weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market rate revealed that the Egyptian pound inter-bank rate depreciated by 14.2 percent during FY 2015/2016, as the EGP reached per US dollar at end of June 2016, against EGP per US dollar at end of June * IIP statement was first introduced in Volume 20 of the External Position Report. It used to be updated on an annual basis, but it is currently updated on a quarterly basis according to SDDS requirements.

5 Section I Balance of Payments (BOP)

6 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's BOP recorded an overall deficit of some US$ 2.8 billion during FY 2015/16 (versus a surplus of about US$ 3.7 billion a year earlier). The current account registered a deficit of some US$ 18.7 billion (against about US$ 12.1 billion). The capital and financial account registered a net inflow of around US$ 19.9 billion (compared with about US$ 17.9 billion). Chart (1) shows developments in Egypt s BOP main components, on quarterly basis. US$ bn Chart (1) : Egypt's BOP Main Components Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014/ /2016 Capital & Financail Account Current Account Overall Balance BOP Performance 1.1: Trade on Goods The trade volume decreased by 10.2 percent, to reach US$ 75.0 billion (22.3 percent of GDP) during FY 2015/16. The trade deficit decreased by US$ 1.5 billion, to US$ 37.6 billion (11.2 percent of GDP) from US$ 39.1 billion (11.7 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: Merchandise exports decreased by 15.9 percent to US$ 18.7 billion, due to the decrease in both oil exports by 36.2 percent to reach US$ 5.7 billion (30.3 percent of total exports) and in non-oil exports by 2.4 percent to reach US$ 13.0 billion (69.7 percent of total exports). As a result, the exports/ imports ratio decreased to 33.2 percent, from 36.3 percent. Merchandise imports decreased by 8.1 percent to US$ 56.3 billion, due to the decrease in both oil imports by 24.8 percent to reach US$ 9.3 billion (16.5 percent of total imports), and in non-oil imports by 3.9 percent to reach US$ 47.0 billion (83.5 percent of total imports). 1- Current Account The current account deficit was due to the roughly US$ 37.6 billion deficit in the trade balance (against about US$ 39.1 billion), and the decline in net unrequited current transfers to about US$ 16.9 billion in the reporting year (compared with about US$ 21.9 billion). Add to this, the fall in the surplus of the services & income balance to around US$ 2.1 billion (from about US$ 5.0 billion). US$ bn Chart (2): Oil & Non-oil Exports and Imports Fiscal Years 2013/ / /2016 oil exports oil imports Trade balance non-oil exports non-oil imports The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by degree of processing and imports by degree of use, during FY 2015/16.

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 18.7 bn Chart (6) Imports by Geographical Distribution FY 2015/2016 Fuel, mineral oils & products 30.8% Raw materials 8.6 % Semifinished goods 14.4% Finished goods 46.2% Asian Countries 20.3% African Countries 1.3% Arab Countries 18.5% Other Countries 10.2% USA 4.6% EU 30.9% Other EU Countries 7.2% Russian Federation & C.I.S 7.0% Fuel, mineral oils & products 17.0% Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports Raw materials 11.2 % US$ 56.3 bn, of which Intermediate goods 25.4% Investment goods 17.1% Consumer goods 26.2% - As for imports, Egypt's trade partners were China, UAE, Germany, Russia, Saudi Arabia, USA, France, Italy, Turkey, UK, and Switzerland. These countries, combined, accounted for some 52.8 percent of total imports. 1.2: Services & Income Balance Hereunder is the geographical distribution of merchandise exports and imports: Asian Countries 11.0% Arab Countries 30.8% Chart (5) Exports by Geographical Distribution FY 2015/2016 African Countries 2.7% Other Countries 8.0% USA 6.8% EU 32.3% Russian Federation &C.I.S 1.3% Other EU Countries 7.1% - Egypt's main trade partners, in terms of exports, were UAE, Italy, USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, India, and Turkey. These countries, combined, accounted for some 50.2 percent of total exports. The surplus of services & income balance fell to about US$ 2.1 billion (against US$ 5.0 billion) due to the fact that the decline in the services & income receipts outpaced that in the services & income payments, as follows: US$ bn Chart (7): Services & Income Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014/ /2016 Services & Income Receipts Services & Income Payments Services & Income Balance

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position : Services & income receipts fell by 25.2 percent, to some US$ 16.5 billion (against about US$ 22.0 billion), driven by the decrease in most of their items as follows: Tourism revenues by 48.9 percent to about US$ 3.8 billion (from some US$ 7.4 billion), as a result of the 47.8 percent fall in tourist nights, which scored 51.8 million nights (versus 99.2 million). (see Box 4) Government services receipts to US$ million (against some US$ 1.4 billion), reflecting the fall in other government receipts and expenses of Egyptian embassies abroad. Other services receipts by 25.2 percent to about US$ 2.4 billion (against some US$ 3.2 billion), due to the fall in the receipts of contractor & construction services, advertisements, computer services, and other services receipts. Transportation receipts by 3.2 percent to about US$ 9.5 billion (against some US$ 9.9 billion), due to the fall in Suez Canal dues to about US$ 5.1 billion (against some US$ 5.4 billion), which decreased, in turn, as a result of the 2.1 percent fall of SDR against the dollar. Add to this the fall in receipts from abroad on account of charter flight. US$ bn Chart (8): Service Balances Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014/ /2016 Other Services Balance Government Services Balance Tourism Services Balance Transportation Services Balance Services Balance On the other hand, investment income receipts rose to US$ million (from US$ million), mainly due to the increase in profits from Egyptian companies' branches abroad, interest on deposits held abroad, and interest and dividends on bonds and securities : Services & income payments fell by 15.1 percent, to about US$ 14.4 billion (against about US$ 17.0 billion). This was attributed to the fall in most of their items as follows: Other services payments by 37.5 percent, to some US$ 3.3 billion (against about US$ 5.3 billion), driven by lower contractor & construction services payments, salaries of public & private employees, communication services, and fees for entertainment, culture & recreational services. Investment income payments by 17.7 percent to some US$ 4.9 billion (against about US$ 5.9 billion), as a result of lower transfers of foreign companies (petroleum & non-petroleum), and transfers of interest and dividends on bonds and securities. US$ bn Chart (9): Income Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014/ /2016 Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance Transportation payments by 12.8 percent, to around US$ 1.3 billion (against some US$ 1.5 billion), due to the decline in amounts remitted abroad on account of transportation services, and amounts transferred by foreign navigation & freight companies. Government services payments by 9.0 percent to US$ million (from US$ million), reflecting the decrease in other government expenditure, and salaries of government employees abroad.

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 On the other hand, travel payments rose by 22.6 percent to some US$ 4.1 billion (against about US$ 3.3 billion), due to the rise of visa card payments, pilgrimage expenditure, and the sales of Saudi riyal to the Egyptians. 1.3: Unrequited current transfers (Net) As shown in chart (10), unrequited current transfers (net) decreased by 22.8 percent, to about US$ 16.9 billion, (from some US$ 21.9 billion). This was mainly due to the drop in net official transfers (cash & commodity) to US$ million (from some US$ 2.7 billion), and net private transfers to about US$ 16.8 billion (against some US$ 19.2 billion) as a result of the fall in workers' remittances by 11.7 percent. US$ bn Chart (10): Unrequited Current Transfers (net) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2014/ /2016 Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Workers' Remittances Against this background, some of the external balance indicators decreased as shown in chart (11). % Chart (11): External Balance Indicators Current Receipts Current Receipts / Services Receipts / (excluding official Current Payments Services Payments transfers) / Current Payments 2014/ /2016 Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 2- Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account registered a higher net inflow of about US$ 19.9 billion (compared with some US$ 17.9 billion) as an outcome of: A- The rise in net inflows of foreign direct investment in Egypt from about US$ 6.4 billion to some US$ 6.8 billion. Such a rise in FDI in Egypt was an outcome of the increase in net inflows for greenfield investments to post some US$ 4.5 billion (versus about US$ 3.8 billion), and the rise in the proceeds from selling local entities to nonresidents to US$ million (against US$ million). On the other hand, the transfers for buying real estates in Egypt by non-residents decreased to US$ million (from US$ million), and the net inflow for oil sector investments decreased to about US$ 1.6 billion (versus US$ 1.7 billion). The sectorial breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (12) shows that the oil sector has the biggest share of 53.2 percent. As regards the other sectors, the majority of FDI went to the services sectors, with the 10.5 percent distributed as follows: the financial sector (3.8 percent), the real estate sector (3.7 percent), other services sectors (2.2 percent), the communications & information technology (0.5 percent), and the tourism sector (0.3 percent). The share of the manufacturing sector was 3.4 percent and the construction sector 1.5 percent. The remaining portion was acquired by undistributed sectors.

10 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 B- The net outflows of portfolio investment in Egypt registered around US$ 1.3 billion (against about US$ million). The outflow was mainly a result of the repayment of bonds of about US$ 1.25 billion worth, which were issued in Also, foreigners net investments on the EGX fell to achieve net purchases of US$ million (against US$ million). C- Medium- & long-term loans realized net drawings of US$ million, (against net repayments of US$ million). This was an outcome of the rise in total disbursements to some US$ 3.0 billion (against about US$ 2.1 billion), and the rise in total repayments to about US$ 2.7 billion (from about US$ 2.3 billion). D- Short term suppliers' credit realized net drawings of about US$ 5.8 billion (against about US$ 5.3 billion). E- Other assets & liabilities realized a net inflow of about US$ 8.3 billion (against some US$ 7.5 billion). Manufacturing sector 3.4% Construction sector 1.5% Chart (12) Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sector 2015/2016 Undistributed sector 31.4% Real estate sector 3.7% Other 10.5% Financial sector 3.8% Petroleum sector 53.2% Tourism sector 0.3% Other services 2.2% Communications & information technology 0.5%

11 Section II Tourism Sector Performance

12 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 Tourism Sector Performance during 2015/2016: The data accumulated for the year 2015/2016 point to a drop in tourist arrivals, nights, and receipts when compared with the previous year levels. This indicates a sharp decline in the tourism sector. Average expenditure per night* declined from US$ 74.3/night in the previous year to US$ 72.8/night in 2015/2016. Tourism Sector Performance during Q4 2015/2016: According to the balance of payments data, tourism receipts recorded a decrease of US$ 1390 million or 73.1 percent to US$ million, due to the negative growth in tourist nights (74.3 percent), despite the increase in the average expenditure per night (4.5 percent). Egypt's tourism sector activity witnessed a sharp decline Q-over-Q. In the fourth quarter of 2015/16, it witnessed a decrease in both the number of tourist arrivals (55.1 percent), and tourist nights (74.3 percent). On the other hand, the average expenditure per night increased from US$ 73.5/night to US$ 76.8/night. Data show a decrease in the number of average tourist nights (5.6 nights per person, compared to 9.8 nights per person). Tourists coming from the Middle East region and European countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor (6.6 and 5.4 nights per visitor, respectively). Hotel Sector Performance: As regards hotel sector performance and its regional comparison during January/July 2016, Cairo hotels experienced a noticeable increased in terms of "average daily rate per room", "revenue per available room", and "occupancy rate". * Average expenditure per tourist night calculated as a number of tourism receipts divided by tourist night. Summary The regional comparison shows that Egyptian hotels offered lower prices during the period. Tourism Market Diversification: According to the number of tourist arrivals over the 1989/ /16 period, Egypt's tourism market witnessed a shift from diversification towards concentration in favor of European region, as the Herfindahl- Hirschman Index (HHI) reached This draws attention to the fact that necessary steps should be taken towards a more diversified tourism market to be able to mitigate any future demand shocks. Nevertheless, Egypt's market is still more diversified when compared to some neighboring countries in the MENA region. (See Box 4, Appendix III). A- Tourism Sector Performance: Ministry of Tourism figures show that a total of 1186 thousand tourists came from all over the world and spent 6646 thousand nights in Q4 of 2015/2016, with a decrease of 55.1 percent in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase of 74.3 percent in the number of nights, compared with the same period of the previous year. The decline in tourist arrivals resulted from less visitors coming from the European countries (101.1 percent of total decrease), Middle East region (0.8 percent), the Americas (0.4 percent). Meanwhile, the number of arrivals from African countries and Asia and the Pacific region increased (+2.3 percent & +0.3 percent, respectively ) Chart(1):Tourist arrivals (In Thousands) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012/ / / /2016

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 In contrast, the average expenditure per night increased to US$ 76.8/night in Q4 of 2015/2016 from US$ 73.5/ night a year earlier (table 1, line 7) Chart(2): Travel & Tourism Receipts (USD million) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2012/ / / /2016 The negative growth in the number of tourist nights (74.3 percent), is attributed to the decrease in tourism receipts by US$ 1390 million or 73.1 percent to US$ million Q-over-Q in the fourth quarter of 2015/16 (table 1, line 1), despite the positive growth in average expenditure per night (+4.5 percent). During Q4 of 2015/2016, data show that visitors stayed less nights, registering an average of 5.6 nights per person, compared to 9.8 nights per person in the corresponding quarter a year earlier (table 1, line 6). Tourists coming from the Middle East countries headed the list in terms of the length of stay per visitor with an average of 6.6 nights. The European countries were the runner up with 5.4 nights/visitor, followed by Asia & Pacific region (5.2 nights/visitor), the Americas (4.8 nights/ visitor), and Africa (4.7 nights/visitor). B- Hotel Sector Performance: According to the Ministry of Tourism data, the average occupancy rate at hotels in Egypt reached 30.2 percent during Q4 of 2015/2016, against 37.9 percent in Q4 a year earlier, indicating a slowdown in the sector. (table 1, line 9). The following chart shows that the average occupancy rate at Egyptian hotels was an outcome of its trends in key cities. Major cities, headed by Sharm El-Sheikh and Hurghada registered the largest decline in hotel occupancy rates, and to a lesser extent, came Cairo when compared to Q4 of 2014/ Chart(4): Occupancy Rate at Egypt's Hotel 60.0 In terms of Q-over-Q comparison, the data on travel receipts and the number of tourist nights and arrivals over the period from Q1 of 2012/2013 to Q4 of 2015/2016, reaffirmed the same seasonal pattern, as the fourth quarter is seasonally the runner up, coming after the first quarter which is the strongest season of the year, while the third quarter is seasonally the weakest. Driven by unfavorable shocks in the following years, the seasonal pattern has been violated, particularly in tourism nights and receipts Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q Hurghada Sharm El-Sheikh Cairo It can be calculated usin Total

14 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 In order to make a sound judgment on hotel sector financial performance over the time and across key Arab cities, one should combine occupancy rate with average daily rate per room (ADR) 1 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) 2. Table 2 shows an increase of 18.5 percent on average ADR & 50 percent on average RevPAR for Cairo, during Jan./July The revenue per available room provides a convenient snapshot of how well a hotel is filling its rooms, as well as how much it is able to charge. As a matter of fact, there is a sharp increase in RevPAR during Jan.-July 2016, as compared to the same period of the previous year. Hotels' revenue-peravailable-room at Cairo City increased to reach US$77 and the average daily rate per room increased to US$ 127. Such improvements came mainly on the back of better outlook in terms of economic and political situation, as illustrated by the economic summit that was held in March Not surprisingly, Cairo ADR and RevPAR were the lowest in the region at US$ 127 and US$ 77, respectively, indicating that Egypt's hotels offered low prices during the period. As to regional comparison, table 2 shows that only Beirut (Lebanon), Doha (Qatar), and Abu Dhabi (UAE) experienced negative results in the three key performance metrics, while only Cairo (Egypt) hotels witnessed positive results. Meanwhile, hotels of other cities experienced mixed results. 1 It represents the average daily rental income per occupied room in a given period of time. The ADR can be calculated by dividing the rooms' revenue by the number of rooms sold, excluding house use rooms from the denominators. 2 It can be calculated using the following two ways; (i) Total room revenue in a given period, net of discounts, sales tax, and meals, divided by the number of available rooms in same period. (ii) Average daily room rate multiplied by occupancy rate

15 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 10 Table (1): Indicators of Tourism Activity 2012/ / / / / /2016 Q4 Q4 Q3 Q4 1. Tourism Receipts (USD mn) Stay-over Visitors (x 1.000) 0 3. Market Shares (% of Tourist Arrivals) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. The Americas e. Asia & the Pacific f. Other Countries Market Shares (% of Tourist Nights) a. European Countries b. Middle East Countries c. African Countries d. The Americas e. Asia & the Pacific f. Other Countries Visitor Nights (x 1.000) 72,919 99,246 51,780 21,733 25,857 6,864 6, Average Nights Spent (per Visitor) Receipts per Vistor Nights (USD/night) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Average Occupancy Rate Luxor Aswan Sharm El-Sheikh Hurghada Cairo Alexandria Contribution to Current Receipts % Sources: CBE, MOT, and CAPMAS. Table (2): Hotels' Performance in key Arab Cities in (January- July) of 2016 Country Occupancy ADR RevPAR Change % Change % Rate (US$) (US$) Change % Cairo (Egypt) 60% Manama (Bahrain) 50% Amman (Jordan) 48% Kuwait (Kuwait) 39% Beirut (Lebanon) 56% Doha (Qatar) 63% Jeddah (Saudi Arabia) 75% Abu Dhabi (UAE) 75% Source: Ernst & Young benchmark survey of Middle East hotel sector.

16 Section III International Investment Position (IIP)

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 International Investment Position (IIP) At end of June 2016* Egypt s IIP at end of June 2016 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 2.6 percent compared to end-march As such, Egypt s foreign assets represented about 27.3 percent of its foreign liabilities. US$ billion Chart (1) International Investment Position (IIP) End of Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Assets Liabilities Net IIP Source: Appendix I, table (2). Egypt's preliminary IIP data at end of June 2016 showed an increase in Egypt's total assets and an increase in total liabilities, compared to the position at end- March 2016, to achieve net liabilities of about US$ billion versus US$ billion. Egypt's total financial assets increased by US$ 0.6 billion, to reach US$ 42.5 billion in June 2016, up by 1.4 percent compared to March Total financial liabilities amounted to US$ billion, increasing by about US$ 3.5 billion or 2.3 percent, compared to March Assets and Liabilities by Component: 1- Assets increased by 1.4 percent to reach US$ 42.5 billion at end of June 2016, from US$ 41.9 billion at end of March Chart (2) Breakdown of Assets by Component Reserve assets 40.2% Assets June 2016 Direct investment abroad 16.7% Portfolio investment Assets 3.1% Other investment 40.0% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - Reserve assets increased by 6.9 percent to about US$ 17.1 billion. - Meanwhile, portfolio investment decreased by about 7.1 percent to reach US$ 1.3 billion. - Other investments' assets decreased by about 2.3 percent to reach about US$ 17.0 billion. * Released in September 2009 according to SDDS requirements.

18 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 12 - Foreign direct investment abroad remained unchanged at US$ 7.1 billion compared to March Liabilities to non-residents increased by 2.3 percent to about US$ billion at end of June Chart(3) Breakdown of Liabilities by Component Other investment 33.4 % Portfolio investment Liabilities 3.7% Liabilities June 2016 Direct investment in Egypt 62.9% - Portfolio investment in Egypt increased by 3.6 percent to about US$ 5.7 billion. - Other investments' liabilities increased by 4.6 percent to about US$ 52.2 billion. Indicators: - Net IIP to Egypt s GDP at end of June 2016, increased to about 36.7 percent, versus about 35.8 percent at end of March Assets to liabilities at end of June 2016, decreased from about 27.5 percent, to about 27.3 percent. This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - FDI in Egypt increased by 1.0 percent to about US$ 98.0 billion. % Chart (4) Egypt's net IIP to GDP and Assets/Liabilities End of Q3 Q4 Q1 Q Net IIP / GDP Assets / Liabilities

19 Section IV External Liquidity

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 13 External Liquidity A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to curb dollar speculations, the CBE continued its management of the Forex market through the FX auctions mechanism that has been applied as of December 2012, alongside the dollar interbank system. During FY 2015/2016, NIR decreased by US$ 2.5 billion (against an increase of US$ 3.4 billion a year earlier) to reach US$ 17.5 billion, thus covering 3.7 months of merchandise imports at end of June (US$ bn) Chart (1): NIR & Months of Imports Covered ( Balance at End of Month ) (Month) During the report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 19.0 billion at end of October End of June 2015 (US$ mn) June 2016 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months of Imports B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks' net foreign assets declined by around US$ 8.3 billion during FY 2015/2016 (against US$ 8.0 billion a year earlier) (US$ bn) 25.0 Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks (End of Month) Assets Liabilities 0.0 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Gold Reserves/Months of Imports The decrease was an outcome of the decline of foreign currencies by about US$ 2.3 billion, the decrease of SDRs by US$ 0.4 billion, and the rise of gold by US$ 0.2 billion Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16

21 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 14 Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 5.7 percent during the period concerned, reaching US$ 36.6 billion at end of June Likewise, local currency deposits increased by 17.7 percent. As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits at end of June 2016, made up 18.5 percent. (LE bn) Chart (3): Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies ( End of Month) (%) Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

22 Section V External Debt

23 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 15 Egypt's external debt of all maturities increased by US$ 7.7 billion (16.0 percent), to post US$ 55.8 billion at end of June 2016 (compared with US$ 48.1 billion at end of June 2015). This came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 7.4 billion, alongside the appreciation of most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar by US$ 0.3 billion. External Debt By residual maturity 1, mediumand long-term external debt decreased, as it represented 75.4 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 87.4 percent of the total by original maturity. Meanwhile, short-term debt showed an increase, as it represented 24.6 percent, compared to 12.6 percent classified by original maturity. A- Breakdown by Maturity By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed, its usual pattern of longterm external debt predominance at end of June Long-term external debt accounted for US$ 32.4 billion or 58.1 percent of the total, whereas medium-term external debt reached US$ 16.4 billion or 29.3 percent and short-term external debt accounted for the smallest portion of US$ 7.0 billion or 12.6 percent. External Debt by Residual Maturity at end of June 2016 (US$ million) 1. Short-term debt by original maturity Medium- & long-term debt maturing within one year External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) Percentage to Total External Debt 24.6% Percentage to NIR 78.2% 4. Medium- & long-term debt by residual maturity Percentage to Total External Debt 75.4% chart (1) External Debt Structure by Original Maturity End of June 2016 Short- term debt 12.6% long term debt 58.1% Mediumterm debt 29.3% 1 While the analytical presentation of external debt by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due -under medium-and longterm debt by original maturity- within one year or less.

24 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 16 B- Breakdown by Type Medium- and long-term external debt accounted for 87.4 percent of total debt, of which: Paris Club members' debt reached about US$ 8.8 billion or 15.8 percent of total debt. Buyers' * & Suppliers credit reached about US$ 4.0 billion (of which US$1.3 billion were owed to Paris Club members) or 7.2 percent of total debt. Non-Paris Club members' debt amounted to about US$ 1.9 billion or 3.3 percent of total debt. International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 14.1 billion or 25.3 percent of total debt. Government bonds and notes reached about US$ 3.5 billion or 6.2 percent of total debt at end of June These include: (i) US$ million of sovereign notes issued in April 2010; (ii) US$ million of the 5 year Treasury bonds issued in June 2012; (iii) US$ 1.0 billion of the Euro-Medium Term Notes (EMTN) issued in May 2013; and (iv) US$ 1.2 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) issued in Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries valued at US$ 16.3 billion (29.2 percent of total debt). Including the Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) from China Development Bank (CDB) to CBE about US$ 0.9 billion. Non-guaranteed medium- and long-term debt of the private sector registered US$ million (about 0.4 percent of total debt). Short-term debt increased by about US$ 4.4 billion to about US$ 7.0 billion or 12.6 percent of total debt. Long- term Deposits 29.2% Priv ate Sector ( Non guaranteed) 0.4% Egy ptian bonds and notes 6.2% Chart (2) External Debt Structure End of June 2016 Short -term debt 12.6% International & regional organizations 25.3% Rescheduled bilateral debt 9.4% Other bilateral debt 9.7% Suppliers' & buy ers' credits 7.2% C- Breakdown by Currency Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 71.8 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the African Development Bank (AFDB) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IBRD).

25 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 17 Other important currencies accounted for 25.9 percent of the total debt, as follows: the Euro which is the runner-up (12.4 percent), the Japanese yen (4.7 percent), the Special Drawing Rights * (4.5 percent), and the Kuwaiti dinar (4.3 percent). US dollar 71.8% Chart (3) External Debt Structure by Currencies End of June 2016 Other currencies 2.3% Euro 12.4% Japanese yen 4.7% SDRs 4.5% Kuw aiti dinar 4.3% D- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor country indicates that 18.4 percent of Egypt's external debt came from five countries; namely Germany (6.8 percent), Japan (4.5 percent), USA (3.8 percent), France (2.5 percent), and UK (0.8 percent). Meanwhile, 34.8 percent was owed to Arab countries (mainly Saudi Arabia **, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates) and 25.3 percent was owed to international organizations *** (mainly the World Bank 9.2 percent, EIB 3.0 percent and ADF & AFDB 4.0 percent). France 2.5% USA 3.8% Japan 4.5% Germany 6.8% Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor End of June 2016 United Kingdom 0.8% Other countries 15.2% Arab countries 34.8% International organizations 25.3% Egyptian bonds and notes 6.3% E- Breakdown by Debtor The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor reveals that the central and local government is the main debtor, with a share of US$ 24.4 billion at end of June 2016, compared with about US$ 25.7 billion at end June (US$ bn) Central & Local Government Banks Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor End of June 2015 Monetary Authority Other Sectors Monetary authority's external debt at end of June 2016 increased by US$ 5.9 billion to US$ 22.2 billion. - Banks' external debt increased by US$ 1.6 billion to US$ 4.0 billion. - Other sectors' debt increased by US$ 1.5 billion to US$ 5.2 billion. (US$ bn) (0.1) Chart (6) External Debt by Debtor Share in total increase/decrease End of June (1.3) (0.8) (4.0) 2013/ / / Central & Local Government Monetary Authority Banks Other Sectors Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. It does not include the US$ 500 million which is classified as a 5-year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development. International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank ( EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB).

26 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 18 F- External Debt Indicators* The ratio of short-term external debt to net international reserves increased to 40.0 percent at end of June 2016 from 12.8 percent at end of June In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 12.6 percent (against 5.4 percent). The external debt per capita increased to US$ at end of June 2016 from US$ at end of June As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification **, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups shows that:- - Egypt's debt stock to GDP (18.1 percent) is among the world's best levels (16.3 percent for Asian developing countries and 68.3 percent for East and Central Europe). - Egypt's medium- and long-term external debt to total external debt at end of June 2016 represented 87.4 percent (94.1 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa and 61.3 percent for Asian developing countries). - Egypt's debt service ratio *** registered 14.6 percent during FY 2015/2016 (57.5 percent for East and Central Europe, and 20.1 percent for Sub-Saharan Africa). * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No 6. ** Source: World & Regional Economic Outlook Reports, Oct. 2016, and CBE database. *** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service (interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country s debt burden. Medium- and long-term debt service reached US$ 5.2 billion during FY 2015/2016 (US$ 4.3 billion for principal repayments and US$ 0.9 billion for interest payments). % % Chart (7) External Debt Indicators FY / / /2016 Debt Service / Current Receipts (including transfers) Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services (US$) 2013/ / /2016 Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP External Debt per capita (US$) (right axis)

27 Section VI Exchange Rate Developments

28 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 19 Exchange Rate Developments (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : During FY 2015/2016, the weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian inter-bank market appreciated by about 16.6 percent against the Egyptian pound (EGP). This brought the rate to EGP at end of June 2016, from EGP at end of June (ii) Market Rate: At end of June 2016, and according to the foreign exchange market (buying price), the Egyptian pound depreciated against the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 39.3 percent, the Kuwaiti dinar by 16.8 percent, the Saudi riyal by 16.5 percent, the US dollar & UAE dirham by 16.4 percent each, the euro by 16.1 percent, the Swiss franc by 11.1 percent, and the Chinese yuan by 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the pound sterling decreased by 0.4 percent. EGP Chart (1):Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP (End of Period) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 USD Interbank rate(average) Euro market rate(buying price) USD market rate(buying price) 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

29 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 19 Exchange Rate Developments (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : During FY 2015/2016, the weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian inter-bank market appreciated by about 16.6 percent against the Egyptian pound (EGP). This brought the rate to EGP at end of June 2016, from EGP at end of June (ii) Market Rate: At end of June 2016, and according to the foreign exchange market (buying price), the Egyptian pound depreciated against the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 39.3 percent, the Kuwaiti dinar by 16.8 percent, the Saudi riyal by 16.5 percent, the US dollar & UAE dirham by 16.4 percent each, the euro by 16.1 percent, the Swiss franc by 11.1 percent, and the Chinese yuan by 8.8 percent. On the other hand, the pound sterling decreased by 0.4 percent. EGP Chart (1):Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP (End of Period) Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 USD Interbank rate(average) Euro market rate(buying price) USD market rate(buying price) 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

30 Section VII Statistics

31 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.). 24 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 25 III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 26 IV- External Liquidity NIR & NFA at Banks V- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators. External Debt by Debtor. VI- Exchange Rate Developments Foreign Exchange Rates 8 31

32 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) Fiscal Year 2014/2015* 2015/2016* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal Travel Investment Income Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Investment Income, of which Interest Paid Government Expenditures Other Balance of Goods & Services Transfers Private Transfers (Net) Official Transfers (Net) Current Account Balance

33 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24 (US$ mn) 2014/2015* 2015/2016* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports. Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) Fiscal Year

34 End of Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund Other long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Other sectors Other assets / Liabilities Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors 4-Reserves assets *Preliminary Table(2) International Investment Position (IIP) (US$ millions) March 2016* June 2016* Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 25

35 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26 Table(3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of June 2016 Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers (US$ millions) Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total Bahamas Bahrain Cayman Islands China, P.R. Mainland Ethiopia France Germany India Indonesia Ireland Italy Japan Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia Singapore Sudan Swaziland Syrian Arab Republic Tunisia Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States International Organizations Total

36 Table (4): Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks US $ mn End of June Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks' Net Foreign Assets Assets Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 27 Liabilities

37 Table (5) External Debt by Type (US$ mn) End of June Total External Debt* Medium & Long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional Organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds and notes Long- term deposits Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other short-term facilities Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 28 Source: Central Bank of Egypt. + Provisional * The difference from World Bank data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, 1991.

38 Table (6) External Debt Indicators (%) FY 2010/ / / / / /16 External Debt / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service * (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn.) Debt Service / Exports (G & S) % Debt Service / Current Receipts % Interest / Exports (G & S) % External Debt /GDP (at current market prices) Short-term Debt / External Debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves External Debt per capita (US$) * includes interest payments on US dollar-denominated bonds and notes holding by nonresedents Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 29

39 Central Bank of Eygpt - External P0sition 30 Table (7) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2015 % June 2016 % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government (1270.5) (4.9) Medium- & Long-Term (1270.5) (4.9) Bonds & Notes (1444.7) (29.3) Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities (6.7) (0.5) Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium- & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Other Sectors , Medium- & Long-Term Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional. *

40 Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit ) First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average End of June 2015 June 2016 Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 31

41 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix II Table Page I- Outstanding External Debt Outstanding Stock Medium & Long-term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt a. Paris Club Bilateral Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt 4 40 (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b. Supplier's Credit c. Non-Paris Club Debt d. Multilateral Institutions Medium & Long-term Private Sector, Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt II- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits III- Projected Medium-and Long-Term External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed Paris Club Debt a. Rescheduled Debt b. Non-Rescheduled Debt Supplier's Credit Non-Paris Club Debt Multilateral Institutions Projected Sovereign Notes Projected Saudi Bond Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes (EMTN) Projected Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) Projected Medium Term Loans for African Export Import Bank Projected Medium & Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait Projected Medium Term Deposits for Libya Projected Medium & Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia Projected Medium & Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates IV- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar 28 69

42 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 35 (US$ million) Total Debt Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 36, , , , A. Paris Club Debt 13, , , , Rescheduled Debt 9, , , , Non Rescheduled Debt 4, , , , B- Supplier's Credit C. Non-Paris Club Debt 2, , , , D. Multilateral Institutions 11, , , , (1) E. Bonds &Notes 5, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 2, , , , (2) 5-Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , (3) F. Deposits 3, , , , (4) 2- Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 7, , , , Deposits (Non-Residents) , , (5) Trade Credits 1, , , , Qatar Deposits 4, Loans Grand Total 43, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (2) Representing the second subscription of Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) amounted US$ 1000 million due in July (3) Representing Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) with nominal value US$ 1500 million ( non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ million). (4) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates Kuwait & African Export-Import Bank deposits amounted to US$ 4800, 2000,5000, 4000 and 500 million respectively. (5) Includes African Export-Import Bank Treasury Deposits Amounted US$ 3,200 million. Figure 1-1 Table ( 1 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$bn ) 60.5 External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June

43 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-2 Deposits 33.57% Medium-and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2016 Non-Paris Club Debt 9.42% Bonds & Notes 7.19% Supplier's Credit 0.02% Paris Club Debt 20.78% Multilateral Institutions 29.02% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 36

44 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 37 Creditor Countries Table ( 2 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Germany 3, , , , Japan 3, , , , China , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Kuwait United Arab Emirates Turkey 1, , , Italy Bahrain Spain Saudi Arabia Denmark Austria The Netherlands Switzerland Canada Qatar United Kingdom Australia Belgium Finland Sweden Norway Multilateral Institutions 11, , , , {2} Deposits, Bonds and Notes Deposits 3, , , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Guaranteed Notes 1, , , {3} Grand Total 36, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates Kuwait & African Export-Import Bank deposits amounted to US$ 4800, 2000,5000, 4000 and 500 million respectively.

45 Figure 2 Deposits 34% Kuwait 2% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2016 Bonds & Notes 7% China 4% Japan 5% Germany 7 % United States 4 % Multilateral Institutions 29% France 2% Others 6% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 38

46 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 39 Table ( 3 ) {1} Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Germany 3, , , , Japan 3, , , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Italy Spain Denmark Austria The Netherlands Switzerland Canada United Kingdom Australia Belgium Finland Sweden Norway Grand Total 13, , , , {1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5. {2} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {2} 20.0 ( US$bn )

47 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 40 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Japan 2, , , , United States 2, , , , Germany 1, , , , France 1, , Spain Italy The Netherlands Austria Denmark Switzerland Canada United Kingdom Australia Belgium Sweden Norway Grand Total 9, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 4 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 15.0 ( US$bn )

48 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 41 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 1, , , , Japan France United States Italy Spain Denmark Switzerland Austria Finland Belgium Sweden United Kingdom Grand Total 4, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 5,000 4,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 3,000 2,000 1,

49 Figure 5-2 Non-Rescheduled Debt 48% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2016 Rescheduled Debt 52% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 42

50 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 43 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Country Canada Italy Japan Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

51 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 44 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} China , {2} Kuwait Turkey 1, , , United Arab Emirates Bahrain Saudi Arabia Qatar Grand Total 2, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 900 million representing China facility agreement. Figure 7 5,000 4,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 3,000 2,000 1,

52 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 45 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) {1} IBRD 3, , , , African Development Bank 1, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , IMF 1, , , , {2} IDA 1, , Arab Monetary Fund Islamic Development Bank OPEC African Development Fund International Fund for Agricultural Development European Bank For Reconstruction and Development Arab Trade Financing Program African Export - Import Bank Clean Technology Fund Arab International Bank Grand Total 11, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. Figure ,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 10,000 5,

53 Figure 8-2 African Development Bank 15% Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of June 2016 IBRD 36 % IMF 9% IDA 6% European Investment Bank 12% Others 12% AFESD 10% Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 46

54 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 47 Table ( 9 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of June Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Multilateral Institutions Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 9 Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn )

55 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 48 Table ( 10 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June (US$ million) Total Debt Short-Term Debt Deposits (Non-Residents) , , {1} Trade Credits 1, , , , Loans Qatar Deposits 4, Grand Total 7, , , , (1) Includes African Export-Import Bank Treasury Deposits Amounted US$ 3,200 million. Figure 10 8,000 7,000 6,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of June ( US$mn ) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

56 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 49 Table ( 11 ) Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit from 1/7/2013 to 30/6/2016 Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 29, , , A. Paris Club Debt 5, , , Non-Rescheduled Debt 5, , , B. Non-Paris Club Debt 3, , C. Multilateral Institutions 6, , , D. Deposits 13, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 29, , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 11 12, Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits from 1/7/2009 to 30/6/2016 (US$ million) {1} 10, ( US$mn ) 8, , , , Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

57 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 50 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H2 (2) , /H /H1 (3) , /H /H , /H /H1 (4) , /H /H2 (5) , /H /H1 (6) , /H /H , /H /H1 (7) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H1 (9) /H , /H /H , /H /H /H /H /H /H1 (8) , /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 47, (10) 5, (11) 52, (1) The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Includes US$ million Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) maturing (3) Includes US$ million Saudi bond maturing (4) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (5) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (6) Includes US$ 2433 million deposits maturing Table ( 12 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 (7) Includes US$ million sovereign notes & US$ 2435 million deposits maturing (8) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) maturing (9) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (10) Excludes US$ million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (11) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. (US$ million) (1)

58 Figure 12 US$ mn 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 51

59 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 52 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 10, , , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, Table ( 13 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Debt as of July 1, 2016 (US$ million) {1}

60 Figure 13 US$ mn 1600 Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Paris Club Debt Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 53 Principal Interest Total

61 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 54 Table ( 14 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 5, , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2016.

62 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 55 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, Table ( 15 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt

63 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 56 (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total {1} The exchange rate of June 30, Table ( 16 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Supplier's Credit as of July 1, 2016

64 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 57 Table ( 17 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Non-Paris Club Debt (US$ million) {1} Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , {1} The exchange rate of June 30, 2016.

65 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 58 Table ( 18 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H (2) 1, (3) 14, Grand Total 12, {1} The exchange rate of June 30, (2) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. External Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Multilateral Institutions (US$ million) {1}

66 Figure 18 US$ mn Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions as of July 1, Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 59

67 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 60 Table ( 19) Projected Sovereign Notes (*) Debt Service as of Julyl 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total , (*) Consists of Two Notes The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 5.75 % issued on 29/4/2010 and due on 29/4/2020. The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 500 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed issued on 30/4/2010 and due on 30/4/2040. (US$ million)

68 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 61 Table ( 20 ) Projected Saudi Bond (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2016/H /H Grand Total (*) The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : 5.00 %, issued on 1/6/2012 and due on 1/6/2017.

69 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 62 Table ( 21 ) Projected Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) (*) Debt Service as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H2 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*) The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : 3.50 %, issued on 1/7/2013 and due on 1/7/2016.

70 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 63 Table ( 22 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) (*) Debt Service as of July1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1500 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 11/6/2015 and due on 11/6/2025.

71 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 64 Table ( 23 ) Projected Medium Term Loans for African Export-Import Bank as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H Grand Total (*) (*) Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed 1.65 %, deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 31/5/2018 (Interest Paid on Quarterly basis).

72 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 65 Table ( 24 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H /H Grand Total 4, (*) , (*) Consists of Two Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Libor 12 months deposited on 24/9/2013 and due on 24/9/2018 Paid on annual basis. The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 21/4/2015 and due on 21/4/2018, 21/4/2019 and 21/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

73 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 66 Table ( 25 ) Projected Medium Term Deposits for Libya as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H Grand Total 2, (*) , (*) No Interest Rate, deposited on 12/4/2013 and due from 11/7/2016 up to 11/4/2018 Quarterly (Each quarter amount: US$ 250 MM).

74 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 67 Table ( 26 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H /H Grand Total 4, (*) , (*) Consists of Three Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding now is US$ 800 MM), Interest Rate is Libor 3 months deposited on 9/5/2012 and due from 9/11/2015 up to 9/5/2020 (Equal 10 semiannual installment, USD 100 MM). The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 19/7/2013 and due on 19/7/2018. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

75 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 68 Table ( 27 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates as of July 1, 2016 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2016/H /H /H /H /H2 2, , /H1 1, , /H /H1 1, , /H /H Grand Total 5, (*) , (*) Consists of Three Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 17/7/2018 The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Thered Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 30/5/2019, 30/5/2020 and 30/5/2021 (Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

76 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 69 Table ( 28 ) Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar as at End of June Country Currency United States USD Switzerland CHF Denmark DKK Egypt EGP Sweden SEK Japan JPY India INR United Kingdom GBP Canada CAD Australia AUD Norway NOK Euro EURO Special Drawing Rights SDR Kuwait KWD United Arab Emirates AED Saudi Arabia SAR

77 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix III Box Page I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 1 73 II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions III- Doing Business in Egypt 3 75 IIII- Tourism Market Diversification Glossary. 77

78 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 73 Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for redissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data category, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in table below. On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of external position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirement under Special Data Dissemination Standards (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity. SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International investment position (IIP) Quarterly 1 quarters External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1

79 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 74 Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having an efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2016) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable are the Egyptian official data. Egypt ranked 15 th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 147 developing countries and 1 st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 87.8 points, compared to 91.1 in This score puts Egypt among the top 15 country group score list, ranging between points. These countries can be distinguished and noticed easily on the map by countries colored dark green, as shown above. Statistical Capacity Indicator 2015 (on a scale of 0-100) Indicator Egypt All Countries Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & timeliness A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 147 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & Timeliness Egypt All Countries As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators, getting the highest score of 100 points on the scale in the source data sub-indicator. * Source: bbsc.worldbank.org, accessed in December, 2016.