COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK 2015

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1 COMCEC Trade OUTLOOK 2015 Trade Working Group 6 th Meeting September 17, 2015 Ankara, Turkey

2 OUTLINE Recent Trends in Trade Between the OIC Member States and the World Recent Trends in Intra-OIC Trade

3 TRADE Between the OIC and the WORLD

4 Total OIC exports fell by 3.3 per cent in 2014 Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

5 Libya, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and UAE have the largest negative impact on the OIC exports (2014) Source: : IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

6 Main Factors Accounting For The Weakness Of Total OIC Exports In 2014 The slow pace of world demand growth Collapse in oil prices Falling other commodity prices Ongoing political instability in the Middle East

7 World trade growth remained sluggish in 2014 Source: WTO Database

8 Growth performance was especially weak in Emerging Economies Figure : Real Growth (%) World Output Advanced Countries United States Euro Area Japan Emerging Market and Developing Economies Russia China India Middle East and North Africa Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, May 2015 Update

9 (US $/b) Oil prices (Brent) fell from an average of 111 ($/pb) in the last three years to 48($/pb) in January 2015 Source: IMF Commodity Price Statistics

10 Both demand side and supply side factors played a role in the collapse in oil prices Supply Side Factors Demand Side Factors Increasing Non-OPEC Oil Supply Demand Weakness OPEC s Policy Shift Increasing Energy Efficiency Recovery of Production in Iraq Source: Authors, based on IMF World Economic Outlook data

11 Non-fuel Commodity Prices Continued to Decline in 2014 Source: IMF Database

12 Prices of Selected Commodities Exported by the OIC Members 2005=100 Source: IMF Database

13 The share of OIC countries in global exports declined to 11.5 per cent in 2014 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

14 Top performers in total OIC exports in 2014 Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

15 High country concentration in total OIC exports Figure: Major Destinations for OIC Exports (Billion $) Share % Countries China Japan India United States Korea Taiwan Singapore Italy France Netherlands European Union EU (28) Total of Top Ten Countries (2) 1,486 1,435 1, Source: UNCTADSTAT

16 Dominance of mineral fuels and oils in total OIC exports OIC Exports to World - Top 10 Items (2014, Billion $) Source:ITC Trademap

17 Share of Petroleum in Total Exports, 2014 (%) Source: UN Comtrade

18 Share of Commodities in Total Exports, 2014 (%) Source: UN Comtrade (*) Includes SITC Rev 3 sectors 26, 65 and 84

19 Malaysia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Indonesia are the largest manufactured goods exporters of OIC Per cent Source: UNCTADSTAT

20 43 per cent of total OIC manufactured goods exports consist of high-skill and technology-intensive manufactures Figure: OIC Exports by Degree of Manufacturing, 2014 Source: UNCTADSTAT

21 TOTAL OIC IMPORTS

22 Total OIC imports dominated by the leading exporters in 2014 (Billion $) Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

23 Total OIC imports originated mainly from developed countries (Billion $) Share % Countries China United States India Germany Japan Singapore Korea Russian Federation Italy France European Union EU (28) Total of Top Ten Countries (2) 971 1,011 1, Source: UNCTADSTAT

24 Product diversification of total OIC imports was higher (2014, billion $) Source: ITC

25 INTRA-OIC TRADE

26 Share of intra-oic trade peaked at 18.8 per cent in 2014 Source:IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

27 Major players in intra OIC trade in 2014 (Billion $) Source:SESRIC Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics

28 Intra-OIC exports concentrated on a few commoditites (Billion $) Source: ITC Trademap

29 20 per cent intra-oic trade target was surpassed by 28 Member States in 2014 Member States Having the Biggest Intra-OIC Trade Share (%) Member States Having the Lowest Intra-OIC Trade Share (%) IMF: Direction of Trade Statistics

30 Making Cooperation Work COMCEC STRATEGY For Building an Interdependent Islamic World Thank You Trade Working Group Meeting September 17, 2015 Ankara, Turkey

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