Central Bank of Egypt

Transcription

1 Central Bank of Egypt External Position of the Egyptian Economy July/March 2016/17 Volume No. (57)

2 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Preface The External Position of the Egyptian Economy Report is a series produced by the Economic Research Sector in the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). The report tracks, on a quarterly basis, the international transactions that the Egyptian economy conducts with the rest of the world. It relies, for this purpose, on the national statistics that are regularly compiled in line with the SDDS prescriptions. Enthused by the CBE keenness to enhance its disclosure, transparency and communication policy, the report is meant to serve several functions. Generally, it spreads, to a broad array of readers, knowledge of Egypt s external accounts including the balance of payments, external debt, international investment position and external liquidity. Particularly, it monitors key external sector performance indicators of the economy in order to identify areas of policy needs. The information revealed in this series has also significant implications for decision-making, investment climate, doing-business environment and sovereign credit ratings. The report contains 6 sections. The first three give a performance portrait of the key components of Egypt's Balance of Payments (BOP), International Investment Position (IIP) and its external liquidity. The fourth and fifth review developments related to Egypt s external debt in its different classifications, in addition to the Egyptian pound exchange rate performance. The sixth section is a statistical part that provides more details on the above-mentioned five sections. This is in addition to a glossary. The report is downloadable from the CBE website Hard copies can be obtained from the Economic Research Sector, 8th floor, 54 El Gomhoreya Street, Cairo.

3 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents Overview Page Section I: Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP Performance 1 1-Current Account 1 2-Capital and Financial Account 4 Section II: International Investment Position (IIP) 7 Section III: Section IV: External Liquidity A -Net International Reserves (NIR) 9 B -Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) 9 External Debt A - Breakdown by Maturity 11 B - Breakdown by Type 12 C - Breakdown by Currency 12 D - Breakdown by Creditor 13 E - Breakdown by Debtor 13 F - External Debt Indicators 14 Section V: Exchange Rate Developments 15 Section VI: Statistics Appendix I 1- Balance of Payments International Investment Position (IIP) Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) NIR & NFA at Banks External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators External Debt by Debtor Foreign Exchange Rates 27

4 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Table of Contents (Cont.) Page Appendix II A- Medium- and Long-Term External Debt B- Projected Medium- and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service C- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt versus US Dollar 67 Appendix III Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions Box. (2): Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions 74 Box. (3): Doing Business in Egypt 75 Box. (4): Tourism Sector Performance Glossary 77

5 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Striving to bolster confidence in the Egyptian economy and achieve monetary stability, the CBE has taken several measures on 3 November, 2016 to rectify exchange rate policy by moving to a liberalized exchange rate regime, so that banks would be at liberty to quote and trade at any exchange rate. This move would allow the CBE to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market and put foreign exchange activity back on the right and formal track through eradicating the parallel market altogether. Undoubtedly, the CBE s Decision to liberalize the exchange rate regime would lead to the steady accumulation of foreign currency reserves through the formal channels. Egypt's transactions with the external world unfolded an overall BOP surplus of US$ 11.0 billion during July/March 2016/2017 (against an overall deficit of US$ 3.6 billion in the same period a year earlier). The capital and financial account unfolded a net inflow of US$ 24.6 billion (against US$ 14.6 billion). The current account deficit fell to US$ 13.2 billion (against US$ 15.0 billion). The capital and financial account revealed the following developments: the net inflow of FDI in Egypt mounted to US$ 6.6 billion, portfolio investment in Egypt achieved a net inflow of US$ 7.8 billion, and the net change in the liabilities of the CBE to the external world increased, thereby registering a net inflow of US$ 7.7 billion. The current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the trade deficit narrowed to US$ 27.0 billion (versus US$ 29.8 billion), the services surplus declined by 18.7% to register US$ 4.5 billion, and income balance achieved a net outflow of US$ 3.2 billion (against US$ 3.1 billion). Meanwhile, unrequited current Overview transfers (net) increased to US$ 12.6 billion (from US$ 12.4 billion). Egypt s International Investment Position (IIP) at end of March 2017 recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 12.3 percent compared to end-june Net International Reserves (NIR) increased by around US$ 11.0 billion to reach US$ 28.5 billion, thus covering 6.0 months of merchandise imports at end of March The increase in NIR was mainly due to the rise of foreign currencies by just US$ 11.0 billion. During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 31.3 billion at end of June Banks net foreign assets increased by around US$ 2.0 billion during July/March 2016/2017. Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 1.9 percent during the period concerned, reaching about US$ 37.3 billion at end of March As a percentage of total deposits, they made up 28.6 percent. Total external debt increased by about 32.5 percent to about US$ 73.9 billion at end of March 2017, from US$ 55.8 billion at end of June The external debt remains within manageable limits, and its position continues to have a favorable structure, as 82.9 percent of the debt are medium- and long-term. The weighted average of the interbank foreign exchange market rate revealed that the Egyptian pound inter-bank rate depreciated by 51.6 percent during July/March 2016/ 2017, as the EGP reached per US dollar at end of March 2017, against EGP per US dollar at end of June This came in the wake of the decision of the liberalization of the Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016.

6 Section I Balance of Payments (BOP)

7 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 1 E gypt's transactions with the external world unfolded an overall BOP surplus of US$ 11.0 billion during July/March 2016/2017 (against an overall deficit of US$ 3.6 billion in the same period a year earlier). The capital and financial account unfolded a net inflow of US$ 24.6 billion (against US$ 14.6 billion). BOP Performance 1.1: Trade on Goods Trade volume increased by 4.2 percent, to reach US$ 59.0 billion (24.9 percent of GDP) during July/March 2016/17. The trade deficit decreased by US$ 2.8 billion, to US$ 27.0 billion (11.4 percent of GDP) from US$ 29.8 billion (8.6 percent of GDP), due to the following developments: The current account deficit registered US$ 13.2 billion (against US$ 15.0 billion). Chart (1) shows the developments in Egypt s BOP main components, on quarterly basis. US$ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015/ /2017 Capital & Financial Account Current Account Overall Balance Chart (1) : Egypt's BOP Main Components 1- Current Account The current account deficit was mainly traceable to the following developments: the trade deficit narrowed to US$ 27.0 billion (versus US$ 29.8 billion), the services surplus declined by 18.7% to register US$ 4.5 billion, and the income balance achieved a net outflow of US$ 3.2 billion (against US$ 3.1 billion). Meanwhile, unrequited current transfers (net) increased to US$ 12.6 billion (from US$ 12.4 billion). Merchandise exports increased by 19.3 percent to US$ 16.0 billion, due to the increase in both non-oil exports by 23.3 percent, to reach US$ 11.3 billion (70.9 percent of total exports) and in oil exports by 10.6 percent to reach US$ 4.7 billion (29.1 percent of total exports). As a result, the exports/imports ratio mounted to 37.2 percent, from 31.0 percent. Merchandise imports Slightly decreased by 0.5 percent to US$ 43.0 billion, reflecting the decrease in non-oil imports by 3.7 percent to US$ 34.8 billion (81.0 percent of total imports), and the increase in oil imports by 15.9 percent to US$ 8.2 billion (19.0 percent of total imports). The following charts illustrate the distribution of commodity exports by degree of processing and imports by degree of use during July/March 2016/17. US$ bn Chart (٢): Oil & Non-oil Exports and Imports July / March 2014/ / /2017 oil exports non-oil exports oil imports non-oil imports Trade balance

8 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 2 Chart (3): Proceeds of Merchandise Exports US$ 16.0 bn African Countries (Non-Arab) 1.4% Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 19.1% Chart (6) : Imports by Geographical Distribution July / March 2016/2017 Australia & Other Countries 13.3% EU 27.8% Other EU Countries 7.3% Fuel, mineral oils & products 30.2% Raw materials 7.6 % Semifinished goods 18.1% Finished goods 44.1% Arab Countries 18.9% USA 5.3% Russian Federation & C.I.S 6.9% Fuel, mineral oils & products 19.6% Chart (4): Payments for Merchandise Imports Raw materials 10.2% US$ 43.0 bn, of which Intermediate goods 27.5% Investment goods 16.5% Consumer goods 23.0% Hereunder is the geographical distribution of merchandise exports and imports: - As for imports, Egypt's trade partners were China, USA, UAE, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Turkey, Italy, Switzerland, UK, Qatar and France. These countries combined, accounted for some 51.9 percent of total imports. 1.2: Services Balance The services surplus fell to about US$ 4.5 billion (against about US$ 5.5 billion) as services receipts declined and services payments rose, as follows: US$ bn Chart (7) : Services Balance Chart (5) : Exports by Geographical Distribution Asian Countries (Non-Arab) 8.3% African Countries (Non-Arab) 2.5% July / March 2016/2017 Australia & Other Countries 10.2% EU 31.2% Other EU Countries 8.3% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015/ /2017 Services Receipts Services Payments Services Balance Arab Countries 30.9% USA 7.9% Russian Federation &C.I.S 0.7% - Egypt's main trade partners, in terms of exports, were UAE, Italy, USA, UK, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Turkey and India. These countries, combined, accounted for some 53.2 percent of total exports : Services receipts fell by 8.0 percent, to some US$ 11.5 billion (against about US$ 12.5 billion), driven by the decrease in most of their items as follows: Tourism revenues by 12.8 percent to about US$ 2.8 billion (from some US$ 3.3 billion), as a result of the 25.9 percent fall in tourist nights, which scored 33.4 million nights (versus 45.1 million). (see Box 4)

9 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 3 Transportation receipts by 7.9 percent to about US$ 6.7 billion (against some US$ 7.3 billion), due to the fall in the receipts of airlines and navigation companies, and Suez Canal dues to about US$ 3.7 billion (against some US$ 3.9 billion), which decreased, in turn, as a result of the fall in net tonnage by 1.7 percent, and the 1.6 percent fall of SDR against the US dollar. Government services receipts by 31.4 percent to US$ million (against US$ million). On the other hand, other services receipts rose by 4.6 percent to about US$ 1.8 billion (against about US$ 1.7 billion), due to the rise in the fees of entertainment, cultural & recreational services, advertisement & market research services, computer services, and subscription to magazines & newspapers. US$ bn Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Other Services Balance Tourism Services Balance Services Balance Chart (8): Service Balances 2015/ /2017 Government Services Balance Transportation Services Balance 1.2.2: Services payments rose by 0.5 percent, to about US$ 7.03 billion (against about US$ 6.99 billion). This was attributed to the following developments: Other services payments rose by 22.6 percent, to about US$ 3.2 billion (against about US$ 2.6 billion), driven by higher payments of computer services, subscription to magazines & newspapers, and legal fees & consulting fees. Government services payments rose by 55.6 percent to US$ million (against US$ million). On the other hand, Travel payments fell by 24.8 percent to some US$ 2.2 billion (against about US$ 2.9 billion), due to the decline of e-card payments by 17.7 percent to US$ 1.4 billion (against US$ 1.7 billion), as well as the decrease in pilgrimage (Hajj & Umrah) expenses, and expenditure of training & educational missions abroad. transportation payments fell by 8.3 percent, to US$ million (against about US$ 1.0 billion), due to the decline in the amounts transferred for repairs of aircrafts at foreign airports, and the amounts transferred by foreign navigation companies. 1.3: Income Balance The income balance deficit rose by 3.6 percent, to about US$ 3.2 billion (against about US$ 3.1 billion). This was a result of the following developments: Investment income payments rose by 4.2 percent to some US$ 3.5 billion (against about US$ 3.4 billion. Investment income receipts rose by 11.7 percent to US$ million (from US$ million).

10 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 4 US$ bn Chart (9): Income Balance Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015/ /2017 Income Receipts Income Payments Income Balance 1.4: Unrequited current transfers (Net) As shown in chart (10), unrequited transfers (net) rose by 1.6 percent, to about US$ 12.6 billion, (from some US$ 12.4 billion). This was mainly due to the increase in net private transfers to about US$ 12.5 billion (against some US$ 12.3 billion), and net official transfers to US$ 82.5 million (from US$ 60.7 million). US$ bn Against this background, some of the external balance indicators changed as shown in chart (11) Chart (10) : Remittances of Egyptians working abroad Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2015/ /2017 Chart (11): External Balance Indicators July-March 2- Capital and Financial Account The capital and financial account recorded a net inflow of about US$ 24.6 billion (against some US$ 14.6 billion in the period of comparison) as an outcome of: A- Total FDI inflows rose by 12.1 percent to about US$ 10.8 billion (against US$ 9.6 billion), while total outflows registered about US$ 4.2 billion (versus some US$ 3.7 billion). Accordingly, the net inflows of FDI in Egypt mounted to about US$ 6.6 billion (from US$ 5.9 billion). To elaborate, net inflows for the oil sector investments rose by about US$ 1.8 billion to about US$ 3.3 billion (from some US$ 1.5 billion). The sectorial breakdown of total FDI inflows as depicted in chart (12) shows that the oil sector has the biggest share of 61.4 percent. As regards the other sectors, the majority of FDI went to the undistributed sectors with 26.2 percent. The 6.5 percent of the services sectors were distributed as follows: the financial sector (1.8 percent), the real estate sector (0.9 percent), and other services sectors (3.8 percent). The share of the manufacturing sector was 5.0 percent, and the construction sector 0.7 percent. The remaining 0.2 percent went to the agricultural sector Current Receipts / Current Payments Services Receipts / Services Payments Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 2015/ /2017

11 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 5 Construction sector 0.7% Chart (12) : Total FDI in Egypt by Economic Sectors July-March 2016/2017 Manufacturing sector 5.0% Petroleum sector 61.4% Undustributed sector 26.2% Services sector 6.5% Agricultural sector 0.2% Financial sector 1.8% Real estate sector 0.9% Other services 3.8% B-Portfolio investment in Egypt achieved a net inflow of about US$ 7.8 billion (against a net outflow of some US$ 1.5 billion). This was ascribable to the rise of foreigners' investments in Egyptian treasury bills, recording net purchases of about US$ 4.3 billion (versus net sales of some US$ 19.1 million). In addition, the Egyptian government has issued bonds abroad by about US$ 3.9 billion in Jan/March In addition, foreigners' investments on the EGX rose, recording net purchases of US$ million (versus net sales of US$ 58.6 million). This came despite the Egyptian authorities' repayment of bonds that had fallen due in the reporting period, in the amount of about US$ 1.0 billion (outflows). C-Medium-and long-term loans and facilities achieved net disbursements of about US$ 5.1 billion (against US$ million). D-Short-term suppliers' credit realized net drawings of about US$ 2.1 billion (against about US$ 4.8 billion). E-The net change in the liabilities of the CBE to the external world increased, thereby registering a net inflow of about US$ 7.7 billion (against some US$ 4.4 billion). F-The net change in banks' liabilities declined, recording as such a net inflow of about US$ 1.0 billion (versus about US$ 4.8 billion).

12 Section II International Investment Position (IIP)

13 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 7 International Investment Position (IIP) At end of March 2017* Egypt s IIP at end of March 2017, recorded net external liabilities (assets minus liabilities) of about US$ billion, up by 12.3 percent compared to end of June As such, Egypt s foreign assets represented about 31.1 percent of its foreign liabilities. US$ billion Chart (1) International Investment Position (IIP) End of Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Assets Liabilities Net IIP Source: Appendix I, table (2). Egypt's preliminary IIP data at end of March 2017 showed an increase in both Egypt's total assets and liabilities compared to the position at end of June 2016, to record net liabilities of about US$ billion versus US$ billion. Egypt's total financial assets increased by about US$ 15.0 billion, to reach US$ 57.5 billion in March 2017, up by 35.3 percent compared to June Total financial liabilities amounted to US$ billion, increasing by about US$ 29.0 billion or 18.6 percent, compared to the end of June Assets and Liabilities by Component: 1- Assets increased by 35.3 percent to reach US$ 57.5 billion at end of March 2017, from US$ 42.5 billion at end of June Chart (2) Breakdown of Assets by Component Reserve assets 48.6% End of March 2017 Direct investment abroad 12.6% Portfolio investment 3.8% Other investment 35.0% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: - Reserve assets increased by 63.3 percent to about US$ 27.9 billion. - Other investments' assets increased by about 18.2 percent, to reach about US$ 20.1 billion. - Foreign direct investment increased by 2.1 percent to about US$ 7.3 billion. * Released as of September 2009 according to SDDS requirements.

14 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 8 - Portfolio investment abroad increased by 71.9 percent to about US$ 2.2 billion. 2- Liabilities to non-residents increased by 18.6 percent to about US$ billion at end of March Chart (3) Breakdown of Liabilities by Component Other investment 36.3% Portfolio investment 7.2% End of March 2017 Direct investment in Egypt 56.5% This increase was mainly due to the following developments: Indicators: - Egypt s negative net IIP to GDP at end of March 2017 increased to about 71.0 percent, versus about 36.8 percent at end of June % Chart (4) Egypt's net IIP to GDP at End of Q2 Q3 Q4 Q Assets to liabilities increased from about 27.2 percent, to about 31.1 percent at end of March FDI in Egypt increased by 6.6 percent to about US$ billion. - Other investments' liabilities increased by 28.6 percent to about US$ 67.2 billion. - Portfolio investment in Egypt increased by percent to about US$ 13.2 billion. % Chart (5) Egypt's IIP Assets/Liabilities At End of Q2 Q3 Q4 Q

15 Section III External Liquidity

16 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 9 External Liquidity A-Net International Reserves (NIR) In order to quell any distortions in the domestic foreign currency market, the CBE announced on November 3, 2016 its decision to move, with immediate effect, to a liberalized exchange rate regime. This move would allow market demand and supply dynamics to work effectively in creating an environment of reliable and sustainable provision of foreign currencies. Moreover, it would improve the deepening of foreign currency liquidity, while streamlining activity into the formal channels. During July/March 2016/2017, NIR increased by around US$ 11.0 billion (against a decline of US$ 3.5 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier) to reach US$ 28.5 billion, thus covering 6.0 months of merchandise imports at end of March US$ bn 30.0 Chart (1): NIR & Months of Imports Covered (Balance at End of the Month) Month 7.0 The increase in NIR was mainly a result of the rise in foreign currencies by just US$ 11.0 billion. During the Report s preparation, NIR reached US$ 31.3 billion at end of June End of June 2016 (US$ mn) March 2017 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Reserves/Months of Imports B- Net Foreign Assets of Banks (NFA) Banks net foreign assets increased by around US$ 2.0 billion during July/March 2016/2017 (against a decline of about US$ 6.1 billion in the corresponding period a year earlier). Chart (2): Foreign Assets & Liabilities of Banks US$ bn 20.0 (End of the Month) Assets Liabilities June 2015 Mar.2016 June 2016 Mar Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Gold Reserves/Months of Imports 0.0 June 2015 Mar June 2016 Mar. 2017

17 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 10 Foreign currency deposits with banks increased by 1.9 percent during the period concerned, reaching about US$ 37.3 billion at end of March Likewise, local currency deposits increased by 18.3 percent. LE bn Chart (3): Developments in Deposits by Local and Foreign Currencies (End of the Month) % As such, the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits made up 28.6 percent at end of March June 2015 Mar.2016 June 2016 Mar Foreign Currency Deposits Local Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Foreign Currency Deposits Growth Rate of Local Currency Deposits

18 Section IV External Debt

19 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 11 External Debt Egypt's external debt of all maturities increased by US$ 18.1 billion (32.5 percent), to post about US$ 73.9 billion at end of March 2017 (compared with about US$ 55.8 billion at end of June 2016). This increase came as a result of the rise in net disbursements of loans and facilities by US$ 19.1 billion, and the depreciation of most currencies of borrowing versus the US dollar by US$ 1.0 billion. A- Breakdown by Maturity By original maturity, external debt reaffirmed its usual pattern of longterm external debt predominance at end of March Long-term external debt accounted for US$ 43.8 billion or 59.3 percent of the total, whereas medium-term external debt reached US$ 17.5 billion or 23.6 percent and short-term external debt accounted for the smallest portion of US$ 12.6 billion or 17.1 percent. By residual maturity 1, mediumand long-term external debt decreased, as it represented 74.7 percent of the total debt. In comparison, they accounted for 82.9 percent of the total by original maturity. Similarly, short-term debt showed an increase, as it represented 25.3 percent, compared to 17.1 percent classified by original maturity. External Debt by Residual Maturity at end of March 2017 (US$ million) 1. Short-term debt by original maturity Medium- & long-term debt maturing within one year External debt by residual maturity up to 1 year (1+2) Percentage to total external debt 25.3% Percentage to NIR 65.4% 4. Medium- & long-term debt by residual maturity Percentage to total external debt 74.7% chart (1) External Debt Structure by Original Maturity End of March 2017 Short -term debt 17.1 % Medium - term debt 23.6 % Long -term debt 59.3 % 1 While the analytical presentation of external debt by original maturity is the norm recommended in the External Debt Statistics Guide, residual maturity presentation still draws significant attention. In other words, compilation of external debt statistics based on original maturity helps in understanding the nature of capital flows; while the remaining maturity provides a profile of debt service payments, especially those falling due in the near term, and of potential liquidity risks facing the economy. Short-term debt by residual maturity comprises all components of short-term debt with original maturity of up to one year, and the amounts falling due under medium- and long-term debt by original maturity within one year or less.

20 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 12 B- Breakdown by Type Medium- and long-term external debt accounted for 82.9 percent of total debt, of which: Rescheduled bilateral debt reached about US$ 4.1 billion or 5.6 percent of total debt. Other bilateral debt amounted to about US$ 5.5 billion or 7.5 percent of total debt. Buyers' & Suppliers' * credit reached about US$ 5.7 billion or 7.7 percent of total debt. International and regional organizations' debt reached about US$ 21.2 billion or 28.7 percent of total debt. Government bonds and notes reached about US$ 6.7 billion or 9.0 percent of total debt at end of March These include: (i) US$ 1.0 billion of sovereign notes issued in April 2010 and falling due in 2020 & 2040; (ii) US$ million of the 5 year Treasury bonds issued in June 2012 and falling due in June 2017; (iii) US$ 1.3 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) issued in 2015 and falling due in 2025; and (iv) US$ 3.9 billion of the Global Medium Term Notes programme. Long-term deposits that have been placed at the CBE by some Arab countries valued at US$ 17.9 billion (24.2 percent of total debt). Non-guaranteed medium- and long-term debt of the private sector registered US$ million (about 0.2 percent of total debt). Short-term debt increased by about US$ 5.6 billion to about US$ 12.6 billion or 17.1percent of total debt. Short- term debt 17.1% Private Sector (Nonguaranteed) 0.2% Long-term Deposits 24.2% Egyptian bonds and notes 9.0% Chart (2) External Debt Structure End of March 2017 Rescheduled bilateral debt 5.6% Other bilateral debt 7.5 % C- Breakdown by Currency Suppliers' & buyers' Credit 7.7% International & regional organizations 28.7% Measuring the currency composition of Egypt's external debt is an important indicator that sheds light on the external debt exposure, arising from currency markets' volatility. A breakdown of the currency composition of external debt indicates that the US dollar is the main borrowing currency, with a relative importance of 70.5 percent of the total. This upward biased share of US dollar largely reflects the fact that there are other outstanding obligations in US dollar to creditors other than the USA (such as the African Development Bank (AFDB) and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IBRD). Including the Liquidity Support Facility (LSF) from China Development Bank (CDB) to CBE.

21 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 13 Other important currencies accounted for 28.3 percent of the total debt, as follows: the Euro is the runner-up (10.9 percent), followed by the Special Drawing Rights * (7.5 percent, the Chinese Yuan (3.5 percent), and the Kuwaiti dinar and the Japanese yen (3.2 percent for each). Kuwaiti dinar 3.2% chinese Yuan 3.5% SDRs 7.5% Euro 10.9% US dollar 70.5% D- Breakdown by Creditor Distribution by creditor country indicates that 29.2 percent was owed to Arab countries (mainly United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia ** and Kuwait), and that 28.7 percent was owed to international organizations *** (mainly the World Bank 5.3 percent, IMF 5.3 percent, ADF & AFDB 3.6 percent and EIB 3.1 percent). Meanwhile, 18.8 percent of Egypt's external debt came from five countries; namely Germany (6.6 percent), UK (5.2 percent), Japan (3.0 percent), USA (2.2 percent), and France (1.8 percent). Other countries 14.3% Chart (3) External Debt structure by Currency End of March 2017 Egyptian bonds and notes 9.0% Japanese yen 3.2% Chart (4) External Debt by Creditor End of March 2017 Germany 6.6% Other currencies 1.2% United Kingdom 5.2% Japan 3.0% USA 2.2% E- Breakdown by Debtor The structure of Egypt s external debt by debtor reveals that the central and local government is the main debtor, with a share of US$ 32.3 billion at end of March Monetary authority external debt at end of March 2017, increased by US$ 7.7 billion to US$ 29.9 billion. - Other sectors' debt increased by US$ 2.5 billion to US$ 7.7 billion. - Banks' external debt increased by US$ 64.6 million to US$ 4.0 billion. (US$ bn) Other Sectors Monetary Authority (US$ bn) Chart (5) External Debt by Debtor End of March Banks Central & Local Government Chart (6) External Debt by Debtor Share in total increase/decrease During July/March (0.7) 0.3 (0.8) 4.5 (1.2) (5.0) 2014/ / / International & regional organizations 28.7% Arab Countries 29.2% France 1.8% Central & Local Government Banks Monetary Authority Other Sectors Including Egypt s allocation of SDRs by the IMF. It does not include the US$ 500 million which is classified as a 5-year Treasury bond issued in June 2012 to Saudi Fund for Development. International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), European Investment Bank (EIB), African Development Fund (ADF), and African Development Bank (AfDB).

22 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 14 F- External Debt Indicators* The ratio of short-term external debt to net international reserves increased to 44.2 percent at end of March 2017 (from 41.3 percent at end of March 2016). In addition, its ratio to total debt registered 17.1 percent (against 12.8 percent). Medium- and long-term debt service reached US$ 4.8 billion during July/ March 2017 (US$ 4.0 billion for principal repayments and US$ 0.8 billion for interest payments). As for the external debt in terms of international comparison, the debt is within manageable limits. Based on IMF classification **, comparing Egypt's key debt indicators with those of other regional country groups shows that: - Egypt's debt stock to GDP (41.2 percent) at end of March 2017 (63.3 percent for Emerging & Developing Europe and 18.1 percent for Asian developing countries). - Egypt's short-term external debt to total external debt at end of March 2017 represented 17.1 percent (81.5 percent for Commonwealth and 14.5 percent for Latin America and the Caribbean). - Egypt's debt-service ratio *** registered 17.5 percent during July/March 2016/2017 (47.5 percent for East and Central Europe, and 27.4 percent for Middle East and North Africa) % % Chart (7) External Debt Indicators End of March Government External Debt / External Debt External Debt /GDP Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves Short-term Debt / Total External Debt during July/March 2014/ / /2017 Debt Service / Current Receipts (including transfers) Debt Service / Exports of Goods and Services * For more indicators, refer to appendix I, table No. 6. ** Source: World & Regional Economic Outlook Reports, April 2017, and CBE database. *** Debt-Service Ratio: The ratio of debt service (interest and principal payments due) during a year, expressed as a percentage of exports (typically of goods and services) for that year. This ratio is considered to be a key indicator of a country s debt burden.

23 Section V Exchange Rate Developments

24 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 15 Exchange Rate Developments The period covered by the Report has witnessed the liberalization of the Egyptian pound; a daring decision taken by CBE on 3 November 2016, with a view to giving banks more flexibility in pricing their currency trade operations, which aims to keep the hard cash within the official market and eliminate altogether the parallel market. The decision comes in line with the economic reform program that enables the Egyptian economy to face current economic challenges, unleash its capabilities, and achieve the desired growth and operation rates, by combining and adapting to the present capabilities and utilizing the full range of Egypt s human, natural, and material resources. (i) Inter-bank Rate 1 : During July/March of FY 2016/2017, the exchange rates of foreign currencies appreciated against the Egyptian pound, on the back of the CBE's decision of liberalization of the EGP. The weighted average of the US dollar in the Egyptian interbank market recorded EGP at end of March 2017, (against LE at end of June 2016). (ii) Market Rate: At end of March 2017, according to the foreign exchange market (buying price) and after the decision of liberalization of Egyptian pound exchange rate in November 2016, all foreign currencies rose against the Egyptian pound. To illustrate, the US dollar & Saudi riyal increased by percent, the UAE dirham increased by percent, Kuwaiti dinar by percent, Swiss franc by percent, Chinese Yuan by 96.8 percent, the Euro by 97.7 percent, sterling pound by 89.3 percent, and the Japanese yen (100 yens) by 88.3 percent. EGP Chart (1) : Exchange Rate of USD & Euro against EGP (End of Period) Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar / /2017 USD Interbank rate(average) USD market rate(buying price) Euro market rate(buying price) (Right axis) 1 The inter-bank foreign exchange market was launched in Egypt in December 2004.

25 Section VI Statistics

26 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix I Table Page I- Balance of Payments BOP Current Account BOP Capital and Financial Account (contd.). 20 II- International Investment Position (IIP) 2 21 III- Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) 3 22 IV- External Liquidity NIR & NFA at Banks V- External Debt External Debt by Type External Debt Indicators. External Debt by Debtor. VI- Exchange Rate Developments Foreign Exchange Rates

27 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 19 Table (1) Balance of Payments (US$ mn) July /march 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Trade Balance Exports** Petroleum Other Exports Imports** Petroleum Other Imports Services (Net) Receipts Transportation, of which : Suez Canal Travel Government receipts Other Payments Transportation Travel Government Expenditures Other Income Balance (net) Income receipts Income payments of which: Interest paid Transfers Private Transfers (net) of which: Workers' Remittances Official Transfers (net) Current Account Balance

28 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 20 (US$ mn) 2015/2016* 2016/2017* Capital & Financial Account Capital Account Financial Account Direct Investment Abroad Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) Portfolio Investment Abroad (Net) Portfolio Investment in Egypt (Net), of which: Bonds Other Investment (Net) Net Borrowing M&L-Term Loans (Net) Drawings Repayments MT-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Drawings Repayments ST-Suppliers' Credit (Net) Other Assets Central Bank Banks Other Other Liabilities Central Bank Banks Net Errors & Omissions Overall Balance Change in CBE Reserve Assets,Increase(-) * Preliminary. ** Include free zones exports and imports. Table (1) Balance of Payments (contd.) July /march

29 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 21 Table (2) International Investment Position (IIP) (US$ millions) End of June 2016 March 2017* Assets Liabilities Assets Liabilities Total Direct investment Portfolio investments Equity security Debt security Other investments Trade credits General government Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Loans Monetary authorities Use of Fund credit & loans from the Fund Other long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Currency and deposits Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Long-term Short-term Banks Long-term Short-term Other sectors Long-term Short-term Other assets / Liabilities Monetary authorities Long-term Short-term General government Banks Other sectors 4-Reserves assets * Preliminary.

30 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 22 Table (3) Egypt's Coordinated Portofolio Investement Survey (CPIS) at end of March 2017 Breakdown of portfolio investment Assets by country of residence of the Issuers (US$ millions) Country of non-resident issuers Equities long-term debt securities short-term debt securities Total Bahamas Bahrain Canada Cayman Islands China, P.R. Mainland Cyprus Ethiopia France Germany Holand Indonesia Italy Japan Jordan Kenya Kuwait Lebanon Luxembourg Malaysia Malta Mozambique Nigeria Qatar Saudi Arabia Singapore Syrian Arab Republic Sudan Switzerland Tunisia Turkey United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States International Organizations Total

31 Table (4) Net International Reserves & Net Foreign Assets at Banks End of June 2014 March 2015 June 2015 March 2016 June 2016 (US$ mn) March 2017 Net International Reserves (1-2) Gross Official Reserves Gold SDRs Foreign Currencies Loans to IMF Reserve Liabilities Banks Net Foreign Assets Assets Liabilities Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 23

32 End of Table (5) External Debt by Type June 2015 March 2016 Total External Debt* Medium & long term debt : Rescheduled bilateral debt ** ODA Non-ODA Other bilateral debt Paris Club countries Other countries International & regional organizations Suppliers' & buyers' credits Egyptian bonds & notes Long-term deposits Private sector debt (non-guaranteed) Short-term debt Deposits Other facilities Source: Loans & External Debt Department - CBE. + Provisional * The difference from World Bank Data is in short-term debt. ** According to the agreement signed with Paris Club countries on May 25, June (US$ mn) March Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 24

33 Table (6) External Debt Indicators End of March External Debt /GDP (at current market prices) Short-term Debt / total external debt Short-term Debt / Net International Reserves External Debt per capita (US$) Debt Service (Principal & Interest) (US$ mn)* (during July/March) (%) Central Bank of Egypt - External Position Debt Service / Exports (G&S) (during July/March) % Debt Service / Current Receipts (during July/March) % Interest / Exports (G&S) (during July/March) % External Debt / Exports (G&S) (during the year) % Provisional. * includes interest payments on Egypt's US dollar-denominated bonds and notes issued abroad

34 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 26 Table (7) External Debt by Debtor (US$ mn) End of June 2016 % March 2017 * % Change (-) % External Debt Total Medium- & Long-Term Total Short-Term Central & Local Government Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Monetary Authority Medium- & Long-Term Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities (32.3) (2.6) Short-Term , Money Market Instruments Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Banks Medium- & Long-Term Loans Bonds & Notes Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans (599.7) (31.4) Money Market Instruments Loans (216.4) (49.8) Currency and Deposits (383.3) (25.9) Other Liabilities 0.0 Other Sectors Medium- & Long-Term Loans from Direct Investors Bonds & Notes Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities Short-Term Loans from Direct Investors Money Market Instruments Trade Credits Loans Currency and Deposits Other Liabilities * Provisional.

35 First: Interbank Rates * Minimum Maximum Weighted average Table (8) Foreign Exchange Rates (In LE per foreign currency unit ) End of June 2016 March 2017 Second : Market Rates Buy Sell Buy Sell US Dollar Euro Pound Sterling Swiss Franc Japanese Yens Saudi Riyal Kuwaiti Dinar UAE Dirham Chinese Yuan Source: CBE daily exchange rates. * The interbank rates were launched on December 23, Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 27

36 Central Bank of Egypt External Position I- Outstanding External Debt Appendix II Table Page Outstanding Stock Outstanding Stock by Creditor Country Medium- and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor: a. Paris Club Debt 3 35 (1) Rescheduled Debt 4 36 (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b. Supplier's Credit c. Non- Paris Club Debt d. Multilateral Institutions 8 41 e. Bonds & Notes f. Deposits Medium- and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt by Creditor Country Short-Term External Debt II- Outstanding External Debt By Currency III- Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans & Deposits IV- Projected Medium- and Long-Term External Debt Service 1- External Debt Service Public and Publicly Guaranteed a- Paris Club Debt (1) Rescheduled Debt (2) Non-Rescheduled Debt b- Suppliers' Credit c- Non- Paris Club Debt d- Multilateral Institutions Sovereign Notes Saudi Bonds Global Medium Term Notes (GMTN) Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Global Medium Term Notes Programme Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Libya Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia Medium- and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates V- Projected Short-Term Debt VI- Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar

37 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 31 (US$ million) Total Debt Medium-and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 42, , , , A. Paris Club Debt 12, , , , Rescheduled Debt 8, , , , Non Rescheduled Debt 4, , , , B- Supplier's Credit C. Non-Paris Club Debt 2, , , , D. Multilateral Institutions 12, , , , (1) E. Bonds &Notes 6, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) (2) , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme (3) , F. Deposits 9, , , , (4) 2- Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 2, , , , Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , (5) Trade Credits 1, , , , Qatar Deposits Loans , (6) Grand Total 45, , , , Using end of period exchange rate. (1) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million), US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million and US$ 500 million representing African Export-Import Bank loan. (2) Representing Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) with nominal value US$ 1500 million ( non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 1257 million ) due in June (3) Representing Global Medium Term Notes Programme with nominal value US$ 4,000 million (non-residents' subscriptions amounted US$ 3,948 million). (4) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 6700, 1250, and 4000 million respectively. (5) Includes US$ 2, million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. Table ( 1 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of March (6) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million Figure 1-1 ( US$bn ) 85.5 External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March

38 Figure 1-2 Figure 1-2 Non-Paris Club Debt 6.24% Deposits % Outstanding Stock as at End of March 2017 Private Sector Non-Guaranteed 0.21% Short-Term Debt 17.06% Supplier's Credit 0.01% Paris Club Debt % Bonds & Notes 9.04 % Multilateral Institutions 28.66% Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 32

39 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 33 Table ( 2 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of March Creditor Countries (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , China , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Kuwait 1, United Arab Emirates Italy Saudi Arabia Turkey 1, , United Kingdom Bahrain Spain Denmark Austria The Netherlands Belgium Canada Qatar Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Multilateral Institutions {2} 12, , , , Deposits, Bonds and Notes Deposits 9, , , , Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme , {3} Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Short-Term Debt 2, , , , African Export - Import Bank , , Arab Trade Financing Program REPO Transactions , Currency Swap Agreement (China) , others 2, , , , Grand Total 45, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 2, million representing extended fund facility by IMF (amounted SDR million), US$ 1, million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR million and US$ 500 million representing African Export-Import Bank loan. (3) Representing Saudi, Libya, United Arab Emirates & Kuwait deposits amounted to US$ 6700, 1250, and 4000 million respectively.

40 Figure 2 Bonds &Notes 9.04% Japan 3.01% Outstanding Stock as at End of March 2017 Deposits 24.21% Germany 6.31% United States 2.02% France 1.47% Others 8.22% Multilateral Institutions 28.66% Short-Term Debt 17.06% Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 34

41 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 35 Table ( 3 ) {1} Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country Germany 3, , , , Japan 2, , , , United States 2, , , , France 2, , , , Italy United Kingdom Spain Denmark Austria The Netherlands Belgium Canada Switzerland Finland Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 12, , , , {1} This table sums up tables 4 and 5. {2} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 3 Total Debt Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March (US$ million) {2} 20.0 ( US$bn )

42 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 36 Table ( 4 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Germany 1, , , , Japan 1, , , , United States 1, , , , France 1, Spain The Netherlands Denmark Italy Canada Austria United Kingdom Switzerland Belgium Norway Sweden Australia Grand Total 8, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 4 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March 15.0 ( US$bn )

43 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 37 Table ( 5 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Germany 1, , , , Japan , France Italy United States United Kingdom Spain Denmark Belgium Austria Switzerland Finland Sweden Grand Total 4, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 5-1 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March ( US$bn )

44 Figure 5-2 Non Rescheduled Debt 61.31% Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March 2017 Rescheduled Debt 38.69% Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 38

45 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 39 Table ( 6 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of March (US$ million) {1} Total Debt Country Canada Italy Japan Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure Medium and Long-Term Public &Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Supplier's Credit Outstanding Stock as at End of March ( US$mn )

46 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 40 Table ( 7 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} China , , {2} Kuwait 1, United Arab Emirates Saudi Arabia Turkey 1, , Bahrain Qatar Grand Total 2, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 900 million representing China facility agreement. Figure 7 5,000 4,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Non-Paris Club Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March ( US$mn ) 3,000 2,000 1,

47 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 41 Table ( 8 ) Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of March Creditor Total Debt (US$ million) {1} IBRD 3, , , , IMF {2} 1, , , , African Development Bank 1, , , , European Investment Bank 1, , , , Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 1, , , , Arab Monetary Fund IDA 1, , African Export - Import Bank Islamic Development Bank OPEC International Islamic Trade Finance Corporation African Development Fund European Bank For Reconstruction and Development International Fund for Agricultural Development Arab Petroleum Investments Corporation (APICORP) Clean Technology Fund Arab Trade Financing Program Grand Total 12, , , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. Figure ,000 20,000 Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of March ( US$mn ) 15,000 10,000 5,

48 Figure 8-2 AMF 4.40% African Development Bank 11.90% Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Multilateral Institutions Outstanding Stock as at End of March IMF 18.42% I.D.A 3.74% European Investment Bank 10.64% IBRD 34.63% Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development 6.73% Others 9.54% Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 42

49 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 43 Table ( 9) Bonds &Notes Outstanding Stock as at End of March Total Debt (US$ million) Guaranteed Notes 1, , Sovereign Notes Saudi Bond Euro-Medium Term Notes ( E.M.T.N.) 3, , , Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) , , Global Medium Term Notes Programme , Grand Total 6, , , ,683.22

50 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 44 Table ( 10 ) Medium and Long-Term Deposits Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$ million) Saudi Arabia 3, , , , United Arab Emirates 2, , , , Kuwait 2, , , , Libya 2, , , , Grand Total 9, , , ,887.40

51 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 45 Table ( 11 ) Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt By Creditor Country Outstanding Stock as at End of March Country Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Multilateral Institutions Germany Bahrain Grand Total {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 9 Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed External Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March ( US$mn )

52 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 46 Table ( 12 ) Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March Total Debt (US$ million) {1} Short-Term Debt Loans , Currency and Deposits (Non-Residents) , , , {2} {3} Trade Credits 1, , , , Qatar Deposits Grand Total 2, , , , (1) Using end of period exchange rate. (2) Includes US$ 5,200 million representing African Export-Import Bank loans amounted US$ 3,200 million and Repo Transaction amounted US$ 2,000 million. (3) Includes US$ 2, million representing Chinese Currency Swap Arrangement. Figure 10 14,000 Short-Term Debt Outstanding Stock as at End of March 12,000 10,000 ( US$mn ) 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,

53 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 47 Table ( 13 ) Outstanding Stock as at End of March (US$ million) (*) Currency Total Debt US Dollar 27, , , , EURO 8, , , , Special Drawing Rights 2, , , , Chinese Yuan , Kuwaiti Dinar 2, , , , Japanese Yen 2, , , , Egyptian Pound Swiss Franc Saudi Riyal Danish Kroner Canadian Dollar U.A.E. Dirham British Pound Sterling Norwegian Kroner Swedish Kroner Australian Dollar Total 45, , , , (*) Using end of period exchange rate.

54 Central Bank of Egypt- External Position 48 Table ( 14 ) Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposit from 1/4/2014 to 31/3/2017 Signed Amount Disbursed Undisbursed 1- Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed Debt 34, , , A. Paris Club Debt 6, , , Non-Rescheduled Debt 6, , , B. Non-Paris Club Debt 5, , , C. Multilateral Institutions 13, , , D. Deposits 10, , Medium and Long-Term Private Sector Non-Guaranteed Debt Grand Total 35, , , {1} Using end of period exchange rate. Figure 12 18, , Medium and Long-Term Disbursed and Undisbursed Amounts for Signed Loans and Deposits from 1/4/2011 to 31/3/2017 (US$ million) {1} ( US$mn ) 14, , , , , , , Signed Loans and Deposit Disbursed Undisbursed

55 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 49 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H1 (2) , /H /H2 (3) , /H /H1 (4) , /H /H2 (5) , /H /H1 (6) , /H /H2 (7) , /H /H1 (8) , /H /H , /H /H1 (9) , /H1 (14) /H , /H /H1 (10) , /H /H2 (11) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (12) , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H , /H /H1 (13) , /H /H /H /H /H1 (15) , /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 59, (16) 11, (17) 71, (1) The exchange rate of March 31, (2) Includes US$ million Saudi bond maturing 2017 & US$ million deposits maturing (3) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (4) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (5) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (6) Includes US$ 2433 million deposits maturing (7) Includes US$ 2100 million deposits maturing (8) Includes US$ 600 million sovereign notes & US$ 2435 million deposits maturing (9) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (10) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (11) Includes US$ million deposits maturing (12) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes ( G.M.T.N.) maturing (13) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (14) Includes US$ million sovereign notes maturing (15) Includes US$ million Global Medium Term Notes Programme maturing (16) Excludes US$ million representing SDR allocation by IMF to its member countries, Egypt s share is SDR MN. (17) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation. Table ( 15 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) (1)

56 Figure 15 US$ mn 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 50

57 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 51 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 10, , , (1) The exchange rate of March 31, Table ( 16 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Paris Club Debt as of April 1, 2017

58 Figure 16 US$ mn Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 52

59 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 53 Table ( 17 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Paris Club Debt Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , (1) The exchange rate of March 31, 2017.

60 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 54 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 6, , (1) The exchange rate of March 31, Table ( 18 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April, 2017 Paris Club Debt Non-Rescheduled Debt (US$ million) (1)

61 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 55 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total (1) The exchange rate of March 31, Table ( 19 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Supplier's Credit as of April 1, 2017

62 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 56 Table ( 20 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Non-Paris Club Debt (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 4, , (1) The exchange rate of March 31, 2017.

63 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 57 Table ( 21 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Public & Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Multilateral Institutions (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 19, (2) 3, (3) 23, (1) The exchange rate of March 31, (2) Excludes US$ 1, million representing SDR allocations by IMF to its member countries; Egypt s share is SDR MN. (3) Includes US$ million representing forecast interest of SDR allocation.

64 Figure 21 US$ mn Total Medium and Long-Term Public and Publicly Guaranteed External Debt Service Multilateral Institutions as of April 1, Principal Interest Total Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 58

65 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 59 Table ( 22 ) Projected Sovereign Notes (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total , (*) Consists of Two Notes The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 5.75 % issued on 29/4/2010 and due on 29/4/2020. The Sovereign Note Nominal Value Amounted US$ 500 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed issued on 30/4/2010 and due on 30/4/2040. (US$ million)

66 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 60 Table ( 23 ) Projected Saudi Bond (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H Grand Total (*) The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : 5.00 %, issued on 1/6/2012 and due on 1/6/2017.

67 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 61 Table ( 24 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Projected Global Medium Term Notes (G.M.T.N.) Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1500 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 11/6/2015 and due on 11/6/2025.

68 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 62 Table ( 25 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1750 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2022.

69 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 63 Table ( 26 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H , Grand Total , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1000 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2027.

70 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 64 Table ( 27 ) Projected Global Medium Term Notes Programme (*) Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H /H1 1, , Grand Total 1, , , (*)The Global Medium Term Notes Programme Nominal Value Amounted US$ 1250 MM,The Applicable Interest Rate is Fixed : %, issued on 31/1/2017 and due on 31/1/2047.

71 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 65 Table ( 28 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Kuwait as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H /H Grand Total 4, (*) , (*) Consists of Two Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Libor 12 months deposited on 24/9/2013 and due on 24/9/2018 Paid on annual basis. The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 21/4/2015 and due on 21/4/2018, 21/4/2019 and 21/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis.

72 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 66 Table ( 29 ) Projected Medium Term Deposits for Libya as of April 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H Grand Total 1, (*) , (*) No Interest Rate, deposited on 12/4/2013 and due from 11/7/2016 up to 11/4/2018 Quarterly (Each quarter amount: US$ 250 MM).

73 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 67 Table ( 30 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for Saudi Arabia as of April 1, 2017 Period Principal Interest Total (US$ million) 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H /H2 2, , /H Grand Total 6, (*) , (*) Consists of Four Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM (Outstanding now is US$ 700 MM), Interest Rate is Libor 3 months deposited on 9/5/2012 and due from 9/11/2015 up to 9/5/2020 (Equal 10 semiannual installment, USD 100 MM). The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, no Interest Rate deposited on 19/7/2013 and due on 19/7/2018. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 1.00 % deposited on 23/9/2016 and due on 23/9/2019 Interest Paid on Quarterly-annual basis.

74 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 68 Table ( 31 ) Projected Medium and Long-Term Deposits for United Arab Emirates as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) Period Principal Interest Total 2017/H /H /H /H2 2, , /H1 1, , /H /H1 1, , /H /H /H /H /H Grand Total 5, (*) , (*) Consists of Four Deposits : The First Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM (Outstanding now is US$ MM), no Interest Rate deposited on 17/7/2013 and due on 17/7/2018 The Second Deposit Amounted US$ 2000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 22/4/2015 and due on 22/4/2018, 22/4/2019 and 22/4/2020 ( Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Third Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 2.50 % deposited on 31/5/2016 and due on 30/5/2019, 30/5/2020 and 30/5/2021 (Three installment) Interest Paid on Semi-annual basis. The Fourth Deposit Amounted US$ 1000 MM, Interest Rate is Fixed 4.00 % deposited on 31/8/2016 and due on 31/8/2022 Interest Paid on monthly basis.

75 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 69 Table ( 32 ) Projected Short-Term Debt Debt Service as of April 1, 2017 (US$ million) (1) Period Principal Interest Total April-17 May-17 June-17 July-17 August-17 September-17 October-17 November-17 December-17 January-18 February-18 March-18 1, , , , , , Grand Total 12, , (1) The exchange rate of March 31, 2017.

76 Central Bank of Egypt - External Position 70 Table ( 33 ) Exchange Rates of the Currencies of External Debt Versus US Dollar as at End of March Country Currency United States USD Switzerland CHF Denmark DKK Egypt EGP Sweden SEK Japan JPY India INR United Kingdom GBP Canada CAD Australia AUD Norway NOK Euro EURO Special Drawing Rights SDR Kuwait KWD United Arab Emirates AED Saudi Arabia SAR Chinese Yuan CNY

77 Central Bank of Egypt External Position Appendix III Box Page I- Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions 1 73 II- Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions III- Doing Business in Egypt 3 75 IV- Tourism Sector Performance Glossary. 77

78 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 73 Box. (1): Egypt's Subscription to SDDS and Data Quality Dimensions: In 1996, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) introduced the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The SDDS is intended to guide countries that have, or seek to have, access to international capital markets in their provision of economic and financial statistics. Subscription to SDDS is voluntary and it requires subscribers to observe the standard and provide information on data and dissemination practices (the metadata) to the IMF for redissemination. The standard identifies 4 dimensions of data dissemination: coverage, periodicity, and timeliness; access by the public; the integrity of the disseminated data; and the quality of the data themselves. In particular, the data dimension lists 18 data categories, providing coverage for 4 sectors (real, financial, fiscal and external) of the economy and prescribes minimum timeliness and frequency standard, summarized in the table below. On January 31, 2005, Egypt became the 59 th subscriber to the International Monetary Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). The report of external position contains external sector data that cover external debt, balance of payments, international reserves, merchandise trade, international investment position (IIP) and exchange rates. Such data are published in compliance with the requirements under Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) of the IMF. Central Bank of Egypt compiles these statistics and disseminates them through press releases, its website, and at the same time, on the IMF's Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (DSBB). Also, these data are included in the CBE main publications; quarterly Economic Review, Annual Report and monthly Bulletins. As the title indicates, the most comprehensive and complete databases are those available from national sources, supplying high quality, timely and accurate data to international financial community to support investment activity. SDDS Data Categories and Related Periodicity & Timeliness Standards SDDS Data Category Periodicity Minimum Timeliness Real Sector National accounts Quarterly 1 Quarter Production indices Monthly 6 weeks Employment, unemployment, wage/earnings Quarterly 1 Quarter Consumer price index Monthly 1 Month Fiscal Sector General Government operations Annual 2 quarters Central Government operations Monthly 1 Month Central Government debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Financial Sector Analytical accounts of the banking sector Monthly 1 Month Analytical accounts of the Central Bank Monthly 2 weeks Interest rates and stock market Daily * No timeliness standard set External Sector Balance of payments Quarterly 1 Quarter International reserves Monthly 1 week Merchandise trade Monthly 8 weeks International Investment Position (IIP) Quarterly 1 quarter External debt Quarterly 1 Quarter Exchange rates Daily *No timeliness standard set Source: IMF Statistics Department. 1

79 Central Bank of Egypt External Position 74 Box. (2):Egypt's Data Quality Dimensions*: According to international rating agencies, having efficient, effective and reliable economic data, especially in developing countries, is becoming increasingly crucial to assign an appropriate sovereign credit rating. Thus, a lack of data in this area will automatically translate into a perception of high risk. Therefore, highlighting the dimensions of Egypt's data quality by showing the results of World Bank index (BBSC 2016) will be an appropriate way to show how reliable the Egyptian official data are. Egypt ranked 15 th on World Bank's Bulletin Board on Statistical Capacity index on 147 developing countries and 1 st on the MENA and African regions, with an overall statistical capacity index of 87.8 points, compared to 91.1 points in This score puts Egypt among the top 15 country group score list, ranging between points. These countries can be distinguished and noticed easily on the map by countries colored dark green, as shown above. Statistical Capacity Indicator 2015 (on a scale of 0-100) Indicator Egypt All Countries Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & timeliness A country's statistical capacity means its ability to extract and publish reliable and timely statistical data, easily accessible by the public. The statistical capacity index, issued annually by the World Bank, consists of three sub-indicators which include; methodology, data sources, and its periodicity and timeliness. The latter measures the degree of information and data dissemination concerning changes in government policy, and how easily that information can be accessed by the public. It is worth mentioning that, aiming to improve the statistical capacity of 147 developing countries, the World Bank provides information on various aspects of national statistical systems through the BBSC indicator at its website Overall Methodology Source Data Periodicity & Timeliness Egypt All Countries As can be seen from the table and its chart, Egypt s score outpaced the average score of all countries, either on the level of the overall index, or on the level of its three sub-indicators, getting the highest score of 100 points on the scale in the source data sub-indicator. * Source: bbsc.worldbank.org, accessed in December, 2016.