Understanding the market Chris Cowan Consumer Insight Director

Transcription

1 Understanding the market Chris Cowan Consumer Insight Director Kantar Worldpanel 1

2 AGENDA 2

3 Methodology The largest shopper panel in Great Britain Geographically and demographically representative of the population of GB 30,000 Households in GB

4 Methodology HOW does Worldpanel work? Take home purchases scanned by palm pilot and clicker technology Data retrieved automatically via modem and collated into databases on a 4 weekly cycle Clients receive databases, reports and presentations and work with client service teams to uncover commercial insights

5 Methodology WHAT makes us different? Panellists send us their receipts which we match to their purchases. For each trip we know: Retailer Total Spend Shop Address Details Price Details Retailer & Address Details Pricing Details Promotions Product Information Promotions Product Information

6 65 PRODUCE SUPPLIERS IN THE UK 6

7 We re all in this together 7

8 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 ONS UK GDP continues to grow, but has fallen to its lowest level since late GDP Growth % (Quarter vs Previous Quarter) % % % % OBR Predicted GDP Growth % 8

9 IT S ALL ABOUT STRONG GROWTH AND PROSPERITY 9

10 THE RETAILERS (AND SUPPLIERS) ARE HELPING US OUT WITH PRICE DEALS 10

11 WHAT S BEEN THE EFFECT OF PRICE DEFLATION? 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jul-14 % change 17-Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar-15 Market Growth Inflation Source: Kantar Worldpanel Grocery 12 w/e 29 th March 2015

12 WITH THE CHANGING RETAIL LANDSCAPE, HAS IT AFFECTED OUR SHOPPING HABITS? trips 256 trips Main shop 13.1 days Main shop 13.0 days 1 2 Top up shop 1.6 days Top up shop 1.6 days 12

13 WE RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER IN GROCERY 13

14 IS PRICE BECOMING LESS OF AN ISSUE FOR SHOPPERS? % Raw Panellists Agreeing with Shape of Britain Statement 70 I work to a strict budget when I'm buying groceries I always compare prices between different brands before choosing I consider that price is the most important factor when buying a product Source: Kantar Worldpanel, LinkQ Shape of Britain 14

15 Vegetables (wholehead) Fruit (wholehead) Prepared 5.0bn 5.0bn 1.2bn -4% 5% 8% 3.4bn kgs 2.6bn kgs 255m kgs 6% 3% +2% 4% 2.8% 12% 75 pa 65 pa 26 pa w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

16 Impact of lower prices in wholehead produce this year w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

17 WHAT IMPACT HAS PRICE HAD ON DRIVING PRODUCE? Rolling 52we Measure Tree 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, ,000 Contribution 600, , , , , , ,000 Frequency Trip Volume (kg) Price per kg Penetration (%) Total Contribution ( 000s) 17 Wholehead produce

18 WHICH CATEGORIES ARE EXPERIENCING PRICE FALLS? Soft Fruit Price per kg Tropical Fruits Other Vegetables Total Produce Volume Legumes Apples Bananas Citrus Pears Salads Brassicas Root Crops Potatoes YoY change w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

19 Focus on the Retailers 19

20 HOW DO THE DIFFERENT RETAILERS PERFORM? 12 w/e value performance YoY Growth Aldi Lidl 30 Waitrose 20 TOTAL MARKET Sainsbury's 10 The Co-Operative 0 10 Tesco Asda Morrisons 20 J FMA AM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S O Wholehead produce

21 HOW DO THE DIFFERENT RETAILERS PERFORM? 12 w/e volume growth YoY growth Aldi Lidl 30 Sainsbury's 20 Total Market Tesco 10 Waitrose 0 10 Co-Op Asda Morrisons 20 ND J FMA AM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A Wholehead produce

22 LONG TERM RETAILER SHARES Rolling 12 w/e retailer share Spend share Tesco Sainsbury's Asda Morrisons Aldi Waitrose Lidl 0 J F MAMM J J A S O N D J F MA AM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O Co-Op Wholehead produce

23 The importance of channels 23

24 Channels 56.0% -5% 12.8% +28.9% 9.5% 6.3% -4.6% +12.1% w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago Filtered to wholehead produce

25 WHAT S DRIVE ONLINE S PERFORMANCE? Rolling growth extra trips Shoppers Frequency m extra hhs OND J FMAAMJ J ASOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J ASOND J FMMAMJ J A SO

26 WHAT OVER INDEXES ONLINE? 52 w/e 11 th October 2015 index Index w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

27 Discounters 27

28 SPEND PER TRIP ON PRODUCE 5 Spend per trip Big 4 Main Estate Aldi Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 28

29 % OF TRIPS FEATURING 6+ PRODUCE TYPES % of trips with 6+ different types Aldi Big 4 Main Estate Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 29

30 We re all in this together 30

31 History isn t destiny 31

32 108 PRODUCE MARKETS 32

33 108 PRODUCE MARKETS 33

34 108 PRODUCE MARKETS 34

35 108 PRODUCE MARKETS 35

36 THE 36 23% 36

37 History does not repeat itself the historians repeat one another Max Beerbohm

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41 LONG TERM VOLUME DECLINE HURTING THE APPLE MARKET Rolling 52 w/e Apple volumes Volume 000s kgs Volume (000s kgs) OND J FMAAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SO

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43 LONG TERM VOLUME DECLINE HURTING THE APPLE MARKET Rolling 52 w/e Apple volumes Volume 000s kgs Volume (000s kgs) OND J FMAAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SOND J FMMAMJ J A SO

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48 Reasons to be optimistic 48

49 IT S A MASSIVE CATEGORY POTATO MARKET KEY MEASURES 96% households 26 times pa 1.1bn 67% individuals 2.5 dishes per week w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

50 50.3% 29.5% 20.2% 62% 20.6% 17.4% w/e 11 th October 2015 vs year ago

51 PERFORMANCE OF POTATO MARKET ROLLING 12 W/E VOLUME TOTAL POTATOES 4 YoY volume J FMA AM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S OND J FMMAM J J A S O

52 CHANGING PRICE OF POTATOES AVERAGE PRICE PER KG - POTATOES 1.4 Price per Kg % vs J F MAMM J J A S O N D J F MA AM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O

53 IT S A MASSIVE CATEGORY POTATO MARKET KEY MEASURES 96% households 26 times pa 1.1bn 67% Getting in an extra basket individuals 2.5 Getting on to an extra plate dishes per week 53

54 HOW REALISTIC IS IT TO GET AN EXTRA TRIP? FREQUENCY OF POTATO SHOPPERS 52 W/E 12 % buyers 10 42m 1 extra trip for all m Targeted 1 extra trip w/e 11 th October 2015

55 BUT WHO ARE THESE INFREQUENT SHOPPERS? PROFILING THE INFREQUENT SHOPPER 8.4m 55

56 DRIVING FREQUENCY IS KEY POTATO MARKET KEY MEASURES 26 times pa 2.5 dishes per week Getting in an extra basket Getting on to an extra plate 56

57 TOP DISHES POTATOES ARE CONSUMED AS PART OF 1 billion 551m 454m 322m 268m Kantar Worldpanel Usage // Total in Home and Carried Out Consumption // 52 w/e 13 th of September

58 ARE DIFFERENT GROUPS EATING MORE PRODUCE MORE OFTEN? All Ages Total Produce Total In Home / Carried Out 16-Aug w/e

59 AND WHAT ABOUT POTATOES? All Ages Potatoes Total In Home / Carried Out 16-Aug w/e

60 AND MAINCROP POTATOES? GB - USAGE - VEGETABLES All Ages Maincrop Potatoes Total In Home / Carried Out 16-Aug w/e

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62 Thank you For further information please contact: Chris Cowan Telephone: +44 (0)

63 Changing consumer outlook REBECCA HUGHES AHDB STRATEGIC INSIGHT

64 Summary Recent changes to shopper sentiment Shopper focus and expectations Adapting to these trends

65 Shopper sentiment has improved Real earnings Consumer confidence Focus on cost National Statistics/nVision European Commission/nVision IGD ShopperVista (Aug 2013 v Aug 2015)

66 Consumer focus points vary alongside changes to shopper confidence Quality Health Convenience

67 Focus on quality has risen Shoppers main grocery shopping focus 70% 60% How much spent Quality of products 50% 40% 30% 20% IGD ShopperVista, Aug 15

68 The balance between price and quality has shifted VALUE

69 Health as a reason for choice growing % of servings chosen for health reason Kantar Worldpanel Usage, 2015

70 The health perception of potatoes is good but there is room to do more Which do you think is the healthiest option? % very/quite healthy : 17% Pasta 33% Potatoes 88% Boiled Potatoes 87% Baked 58% Mashed Rice 51% July 15 18% Roast 6% Chips 4% Fried AHDB/YouGov, July 2015 How healthy do you think potatoes are when they are cooked in the following ways?

71 Convenience isn t a new trend but consumers are expecting more % who believe fresh potatoes are convenient 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AHDB / Oxford Partnership, Dec 14 IGD Retail Analysis

72 Convenience is key Speed Flavour I spend 19% more to save time I spend 25% more for taste Solutions I spend 234% more for solutions KWP Usage, 2015 Save time uplift based on ready made v homemade; solutions based on meal deals v average cost of a meal for two; taste based on Premium PL chilled ready meals

73 But don t rely on convenience message alone GOOD FOOD FAST NUTRITIOUS, SUPER-FAST

74 Summary Shopper sentiment As it improves it allows for new trends to develop Focus and expectations Quality and health are growing Adapting Balance value for time vs value for money