Consumer Price Index Monthly September 2006

Transcription

1 Consumer Price Index Monthly September 2006 CPI and Inflation Figure 1: change CPI per Month of The consumer price index (CPI) 1 of the total population for the month of September 2006 is There is no change compared with the CPI of August An overview of the change of CPI ( CPI) for different periods during 2005 and 2006 are shown in Table Table 1 Overview in of CPI Period Current Month Aug-Sep Last Quarter Jul-Sep Last 12 Months Sep-Sep to date Jan-Sep Sep-05 Oct Nov-05 Dec-05 Jan-06 Feb Mar-06 Apr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Month Figure 1 depicts the monthly change of the CPI over a period of one year starting from September 2005, whereas the inflation for the month September for the years 1997 through 2006 is illustrated in Figure 2. Changes in In September 2006 the price indices for the sectors, Beverages & Tobacco products and Housing Group increased by approximately 0.7 compared to August 2006 (see Figure 3). Gasoline prices in the Transport & communication Group decreased by 6.3. In the sector price increases were observed in most groups, especially in the categories Sugar products & Chocolate and Potatoes, Vegetables & Fruit. Meanwhile the group who experienced the largest decrease was Fats and Oils with Furthermore, the largest increase for all sectors was observed in the sector Housing Group for the category Garden Supplies with In the same fashion the largest decrease was observed in the Transport & Communication Group for category Vehicle Supplies with Reference is made further to table 8 in Appendix 1 Monthly CPI. Further, each category has its own weight. For an overview of the per category in the total basket see figure 8 in appendix 2. Figure 2: Change CPI for September of Figure 3: Change price index per Sep-'06 Beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport and communication Leisure and recreational Goods and services n.e.c CPI measures changes in prices of consumer goods and services purchased by households. Consumer Price Indices can be intended to measure either the rate of price inflation as perceived by households, or changes in their cost of living (that is, changes in the amounts that the households need to spend in order to maintain their standard of living). (Source: Consumer Price Index Manual theory and practice). 2 The change is calculated by comparing current month of previous year to current month of concerning year

2 Consumer Price Index Quarterly September 2006 Quarterly Change The percentage change per quarter is calculated by comparing the index at the end of the quarter with the index at the beginning of the quarter. For instance, the quarterly change in CPI for the 3 rd quarter ( ) is calculated as follows: CPI QRT CPI Sep 2006 CPI 3 = (1) QRT 2006 CPI Jun2006 Where CPI Sep2006 and CPI Jun2006 are the CPI s for end Quarter which is end September 2006 and beginning of Quarter 3 which is end previous quarter (June 2006), respectively. Subsequently, CPI QRT3 is 0.7 and is determined as follows = 0.7 (2) Table 2: Quarterly Change per for 3 rd Quarter Beverage & tobacco Clothing & footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport & comm Leisure & recreational Goods & services n.e.c. Total Index Table: 3 Change per Quarter (Total Index) Quarter Jan-Mar (Q1) Apr-Jun (Q2) Jul-Sep (Q3) Oct-Dec (Q4) 0.4 n.a Table 2 and Figure 4 provide an overview of the changes in price indexes per sector for the 3 rd quarter for the period Further, an increase of is observed in the Beverage & Tobacco sector and a decrease of is observed in the Transport and communication sector. Table 3 provides a summary of the changes in CPI for the period The change in CPI for the 3 rd quarter in 2005 increased with 16.7 compared to 2006 and decreased by 65 compared to previous quarter. In addition, it is observed that the largest changes took place in the 2 nd quarter. Figure 4: Quarterly Change per (Jul-Sep) Beverage & tobacco Clothing & footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport & comm. Leisure & recreational Goods & services n.e.c

3 Consumer Price Index ly September 2006 ly Change The same principle of calculation as discussed previously is applicable for the calculation of the yearly. In table 4 for instance, the 4.1 change for the Total index ( CPI) is determined by (3) The highest increase in price index compared to September previous year is observed in the housing sector namely 9.2 (see figure 5). The Beverages and Tobacco Index increased to 1.6 which is 77.8 higher than the of previous month. The transport and communication price index increased to 0.9 which is 64 lower compared to the of previous month. Table 4: Comparison between 2005 and 2006 in change July August September Beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport and comm Leisure and recreational Goods and services n.e.c Total index The yearly average is determined by comparing the yearly average Index per sector in period t with the yearly average Index per sector in period t-1. The same applies for the calculation of the average CPI. Table 5 provides an overview of the yearly average per sector and Total Index for the period For an overview of yearly change for year to date (till September) see figure 9 in Appendix 2. Table 5: ly Average per sector ( ) Beverage & tobacco Clothing & footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport & comm Leisure and recreational Other Total Index Figure 5: ly Change per for September 4.9 Beverages and tobacco Clothing and footwear Housing Household operation Health Transport and communication 0.9 Leisure and recreational Goods and services n.e.c

4 Consumer Price Index CPI Trading Partners Sep 2006 CPI Change of our Major Trading Partners For the 1 st year half of 2006 the import share of the two major trading partners of Aruba; USA and the Netherlands was and respectively 3. The import value consists of import to Aruba and Import to Free zone. Comparison of change of Aruba s CPI with its major trading partners is important regarding the fact that a large part of the goods sold on Aruba are imported. Table 6: Monthly Change CPI in 2006 per Country Month Aruba USA Curaçao Netherlands January February March April May June July August September An overview of the monthly changes per country 4 for January up to and including September is provided in table 6. Figure 6 shows the change in CPI for Aruba and the USA. In the same fashion an overview of the yearly changes per country for the year 2001 up to and including 2005 is shown in table 7 and figure 7. The largest decrease compared to previous monthly change CPI is observed for the USA. The largest increase in monthly change CPI compared to previous month is observed for Curaçao. In the case of the yearly change CPI for 2005 compared to 2004, Curaçao has the largest increase and USA has the smallest increase. Table 7: ly Change CPI per Country Country Aruba USA The Netherlands Curaçao Figure 6: Monthly Change CPI for Aruba and the USA Month September August July June USA May Aruba April March February Figure 7: ly Change CPI per Country Aruba USA Curaçao Netherlands 3 Source: Foreign Trade Statistics, CBS Aruba 4 Source: US CPI: NL CPI: CUR CPI: 4

5 Consumer Price Index Table 8: Consumer Price Index Total Population Sep 2000=10 Appendix 1 Indexes September DESCRIPTION WEIGHT Monthly ly coefficient Apr May June July Aug Sep change change 1, Grain and grain products Meat, poultry, game, fish and shellfish Fats and oils Dairy products Potatoes, vegetables and fruit Sugar, sugar products and chocolate Ready to eat meals Take away beverages and meals Groceries n.e.c Beverages and tobacco products Beverages Tobacco products Clothing and footwear group 1, Clothing and accessories Footwear Housing group 2, Property Rent Domestic Fuel and power Property maintenance goods Garden Supplies Water Supply Household operation group 1, Furniture and lightning Floor coverings and household textiles Home appliances and tools Household equipment and utensils Household services Housekeeping charges Household supplies Health group Health services Transport and communication group 1, Own transport Vehicle supplies Public Transport costs Communication Services Leisure and recreational goods Costs incurred for recreational purposes Admission charges to events and venues Publications (no study material) Formal education fees Goods and services n.e.c. 1, Toiletries and cosmetics Insurance services Other goods and services n.e.c Money Transfers Unknown artic or not elsewhere classified TOTAL INDEX 10,

6 Consumer Price Index Appendix 2 Figure 8: CPI Weights by Major Components in (Expenditure Survey 1998) Beverages and tobacco products Clothing and footwear group 11 Housing group Household operation group 20 Health group Transport and communication group Leisure and recreational goods Goods and services n.e.c. Figure 9: ly Change Till Sep Till Sep