No 15/96 29 February 1996

Transcription

1 No 15/96 29 February 1996 Interim step towards harmonised measurement of consumer prices NEW WAY OF COMPARING EU INFLATION Required for the assessment of convergence for Economic and Monetary Union An important step is about to be taken towards fully harmonised inflation figures which will be used for decisions on which Member States meet the price stability convergence criterion for participation in Economic and Monetary Union. National measures of inflation will not be affected - Member States will continue to calculate and publish their own Consumer Price Indices according to national needs and definitions. The introduction of the new system will take place in two steps: Interim indices are being published for the first time this month by Eurostat - the Statistical Office of the European Communities in Luxembourg - and the national statistical institutes (NSIs) of Member States. Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) will start in January The interim indices are based largely on existing national Consumer Prices Indices (CPIs). However, in order to improve comparability certain categories of spending have been excluded. In particular owner-occupied housing costs, expenditure on health, education and insurances are left out. They are designed expressly for international comparisons of consumer price inflation, particularly by the Commission and European Monetary Institute in their EMU convergence reports under article 109j of the Treaty. Neither the interim indices nor the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices replace existing national Consumer Price Indices; they are not designed for domestic purposes such as indexation or wage bargaining. M. Yves-Thibault de Silguy, the member of the European Commission responsible for EMU and Eurostat, has especially welcomed this development which will enable the European Council to take its decisions on countries participating in Monetary Union on the basis of comparable data. Eurostat - in close collaboration with NSIs - has been working for over two years on harmonising the different methods used by Member States to compile such indices. The interim indices announced today result from this. They will be produced by each Member State in co-operation with Eurostat.

2 Given below are, in ascending order of current inflation, the annual inflation rates as measured by the interim indices for the individual Member States, for the twelve months to January 1996 and corresponding figures for October to December 1995: January 1996 December 1995 November 1995 October 1995 January 1995 December 1994 November 1994 October 1994 FIN 0,8 % 0,3 % 0,3 % 0,3 % L 1,1 % 1,3 % 1,3 % 1,5 % NL 1,3 % 0,8 % 0,8 % 0,5 % D 1,4 % 1,5 % 1,4 % 1,3 % S 1,6 % 2,9 % 3,0 % 3,0 % B 1,6 % 1,4 % 1,3 % 1,0 % A 1,7 % 1,5 % 1,6 % 1,6 % DK 1,8 % 2,2 % 2,2 % 2,2 % F 2,0 % 2,1 % 2,0 % 1,9 % IRL : % 2,3 %* 2,3 %* 2,3 %* P 2,3 % 3,3 % 3,6 % 3,7 % UK 3,2 % 3,5 % 3,2 % 3,3 % E 3,9 % 4,3 % 4,3 % 4,4 % I 5,7 %p 5,9 % 5,9 % 5,6 % GR 8,1 % 7,9 % 7,9 % 8,2 % EU 2,8 %p 3,0 % 2,9 % 2,9 % 10.0 Interim indices annual % rates Horizontal line indicates EU average FIN L NL D S B A DK F IRL P UK E I GR See background note for further details. * The index for Ireland is quarterly, November 1995/1994. p= provisional 2

3 INTERIM INDICES OF CONSUMER PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON BACKGROUND NOTE Convergence criterion The Treaty on European Union sets a timetable for achieving Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) by 1 January 1999 at the latest. Participating countries are required to achieve a high degree of economic convergence, measured in particular in relation to four criteria. One of these criteria requires Member States to have a sustainable price performance and an average rate of inflation observed over a period of one year that does not exceed by more than 1 ½ percentage points that of, at most, the three best-performing Member States in terms of price stability. To conform to the Protocol on the convergence criteria "inflation shall be measured by means of the consumer price index on a comparable basis, taking into account differences in national definitions". The Treaty also requires that before the end of 1996 the European Commission and European Monetary Institute (EMI) will report formally for the first time to the Council of Ministers on progress towards achieving the four convergence criteria. Up to now the only international agreement on CPIs was the resolution on standards adopted at the 14th International Conference of Labour Statisticians in However a variety of concepts, methods and practices are still used in compiling CPIs and the rates of inflation based on current national data are not regarded as sufficiently comparable for the purpose of assessing the convergence of the economies of the Member States. How the interim indices came about Eurostat - collaborating closely with national statistical institutes (NSIs) - has been working for over two years to harmonise the different methods used by Member States to compile CPIs. The first tangible outcome of this work was Council Regulation (EC) No 2494/95 of 23 October This gives a framework for the operation of detailed rules. It was an important step as it lays down a strict timetable - derived from the Treaty timetable for Member States to follow. The Regulation stipulates a first step to harmonisation: interim indices based largely on existing national CPIs. It is these that are being published today as a complete set for the first time. The second step is a new set of Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs). These will appear in a year s time. Technical complexities would not allow an earlier start; there are, for example, major differences in the coverage of the CPIs and important differences in the formulas and compilation procedures used. Relationship of harmonised and national CPIs Neither the interim indices nor the Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices (HICPs) will replace national Consumer Price Indices (CPIs), which will remain as the chosen measure for national purposes. It is not intended, for either the interim indices or the HICPs, to harmonise the expenditure patterns underlying each national CPI. There is no intention to impose a uniform 3

4 basket in the construction of national CPIs. All Member States are likely to continue their existing CPIs for domestic purposes for the foreseeable future. The new indices are designed expressly and only for international comparisons, not for domestic use such as indexation or wage bargaining. The focus will be on comparability among the different indices as well as their relative movements. How HICPs will come in Harmonised Indices of Consumer Prices begin with the index for January 1997 and will replace the interim indices. The scope of the Harmonised Indices should be the prices of goods and services available for purchase in the economic territory of the Member State for the purposes of directly satisfying consumer needs. However, the actual coverage of the Harmonised Indices is not finalised. Under the Council Regulation 2494/95, Eurostat is bringing forward detailed Regulations establishing the specific rules which will govern the production of the Harmonised Indices. These Regulations will take legal effect through the Statistical Programme Committee (SPC), comprising Director- Generals of the National Statistical Institutes. The procedure ensures that points on which there is serious divergence of opinion can be referred back to the Council. This is an important safety net for Member States. It will not be possible to achieve full harmonisation by January 1997; more work will be necessary. Nevertheless, introduction of interim indices and the replacement HICPs will form an improved basis for assessing comparative consumer price inflation than simply comparing today's national CPIs. How interim indices will work Interim indices are based almost entirely on national CPIs. In order to improve comparability certain categories of spending have been excluded, where, in the time available, it has been impossible to agree how best to construct comparable measures. In particular, owner occupiers' housing costs, which are not covered in some countries, are measured by equivalent rents in others and by mortgage interest payments in the remainder, are left out of all Member States' interim indices. Spending on health and education has also been excluded because of major institutional differences between countries in the ways in which consumers pay for such services, either directly or through taxes. Likewise refuse disposal and sanitation services are paid for directly by consumers in some countries and these payments are taken into the CPI. When they are financed out of taxation they are not normally covered by the CPIs which do not cover direct taxes. Some payments relating to the use of a car are sometimes regarded as taxes and sometimes as consumers expenditure. These have been excluded until agreement can be reached on their treatment. In addition, certain categories of expenditure that are not in some national CPIs - in particular, alcoholic drink and tobacco - are included for all Member States. The goods and services covered by the interim indices are given in the attached annex. The following tables give details of the categories which have been excluded from national CPIs and these where additions have been made. 4

5 Categories which have been excluded from national CPIs are: B DK D GR E F IRL I L NL A P FIN S UK Imputed rents of owner occupiers out out out out out Mortgage interest payments out out out out out Refuse disposal and sanitation services (payment as tax regardless of consumption) out out out Insurance in respect of the dwelling out out out out out out out out out Water supply out out (payment as tax regardless of consumption) Health out out out out out out out out out out out out out out out Package holidays out out out out out out out out out out out out out and expenditure abroad Travel insurance out out out out out Taxes related to out out out out out out out out out out out out the use of a car, road taxes and tolls Car insurance out out out out out out out out out out out out out Drivers licence out out out out out out out out fee Education out out out out out out out out out out out out out out Social services out out out Financial services out out out out out out out out out out out n.e.c. Other services n.e.c. out out out out out out out out out out out out out Categories which have been added to national CPIs are: B DK D GR E F IRL I L NL A P FIN S UK Alcoholic in beverages Tobacco in in Services for the in routine, maintenance and repair of dwellings Notes: Combined weight of these exclusions and inclusions is about 20% of total consumer spending. The exact amounts vary from country to country. 5

6 Expenditures excluded from national CPIs when computing the interim indices - approximate weights per 1000 B DK D GR E F IRL I Interim Index Housing Health and Education /- Others = CPI L NL A P FIN S UK* Interim Index Housing Health and Education /- Others = CPI * The weight for Health and Education is contained in Others. Apart from the above changes, the interim indices are constructed by exactly the same methods as used by the national CPIs from which they are derived. 6

7 ANNEX COVERAGE OF THE INTERIM INDICES FOOD, BEVERAGES AND TOBACCO - Bread and cereals; Meat; Fish; Milk, cheese and eggs; Oil and fats; Fruits; Vegetables; Sugar, jam, honey, chocolate and confectionery; Salt, spices, sauces, soups and food products; Coffee, tea, cocoa; Other non-alcoholic beverages; Alcoholic beverages; Tobacco. CLOTHING AND FOOTWEAR - Clothing materials; Garments; Other articles of clothing and clothing accessories; Repair and hire of clothing; Shoes and other footwear; Repair and hire of footwear. HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS - Rents actually paid by tenants; Products and services for the regular maintenance and repair of the dwelling; Refuse disposal and sanitation services (where consumers pay according to consumption); Water supply (where consumers pay according to consumption); Electricity; Gas; Liquid and other fuels. FURNISHINGS, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, ROUTINE MAINTENANCE OF THE HOUSE - Furniture and furnishings; Carpets and other floor coverings; Repair of furniture, furnishings, carpets and other floor coverings; Household textiles and repairs; Major and small electric household appliances; Non-electric household appliances; Repair of household appliances; Glassware, tableware and household utensils and repairs; Major tools and equipment and repairs; Small tools and miscellaneous accessories and repairs; Non-durable household goods; Domestic services; Home care services excluding domestic services. TRANSPORT - Motor cars; Cycles and motor cycles; Spare-parts and accessories; Fuels and lubricants; Maintenance and repairs; Local and long-distance transport; Removals and furniture storage. LEISURE, ENTERTAINMENT AND CULTURE - Equipment for the reception, recording and reproduction of sound and pictures; Photographic and cinematographic equipment, optical instruments; Data processing equipment; Other major durables for leisure and culture; Games and toys, equipment for sport, camping and open-air recreation; Recording media for pictures and sound; Gardening and pets; Repair of equipment and accessories for leisure and culture; Group and other recreational and cultural services; Books; Newspapers and miscellaneous printed matter; Stationery and drawing materials. HOTELS, CAFES AND RESTAURANTS - Restaurants, cafes and canteens; Accommodation services. MISCELLANEOUS GOODS AND SERVICES - Hairdressing and personal grooming; Electrical appliances for personal care; Other articles for personal care, toiletries; Jewelry, clocks and watches; Other personal effects; Postal services; Telephone, telegraph and telefax services. 7

8 INTERIM INDICES OF CONSUMER PRICES FOR INTERNATIONAL PRICE COMPARISONS EU B DK D GR E F IRL I L NL Annual Average 1994 = ,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100, ,0 101,4 102,3 101,6 109,0 104,7 101,7 102,4 105,4 101,9 101, Monthly Indices (NB: The index for Ireland is quarterly) January 98,6 98,9 98,8 99,0 94,3 98,7 99,1 98,8 98,4 99,1 98,4 Feb. 99,0 99,2 99,2 99,5 94,5 98,7 99,4 98,8 98,7 99,3 99,2 March 99,3 99,2 99,2 99,6 97,5 98,9 99,6 98,8 98,9 99,3 100,0 April 99,7 99,4 99,7 99,8 99,1 99,3 99,9 100,0 99,1 99,4 100,1 May 100,0 99,8 100,1 100,0 99,9 99,4 100,1 100,0 99,8 99,6 100,2 June 100,2 100,1 100,1 100,2 101,0 99,5 100,1 100,0 99,9 99,6 99,8 July 100,1 100,5 99,9 100,4 99,0 99,9 100,0 100,5 100,2 100,1 99,4 August 100,4 100,7 100,4 100,4 99,3 100,6 100,0 100,5 100,2 100,2 99,9 Sept. 100,6 100,7 100,5 100,3 102,4 100,9 100,3 100,5 100,6 100,5 101,0 October 100,8 100,6 100,7 100,4 103,6 101,1 100,5 100,7 101,1 100,7 101,1 Nov. 100,9 100,4 100,9 100,3 104,1 101,4 100,5 100,7 101,5 101,0 100,7 Dec. 101,1 100,5 100,8 100,4 105,3 101,8 100,5 100,7 101,7 101,1 100, January 101,4 100,9 101,1 100,8 104,6 102,9 100,7 101,5 102,1 101,5 100,1 Feb. 101,9 101,0 101,6 101,2 104,1 103,4 101,0 101,5 103,0 101,7 100,7 March 102,4 101,0 101,9 101,2 107,3 104,0 101,3 101,5 104,0 101,7 101,5 April 102,8 101,1 102,3 101,4 108,7 104,5 101,4 102,6 104,5 101,7 101,6 May 103,1 101,3 102,6 101,6 109,5 104,5 101,6 102,6 105,1 101,9 101,4 June 103,2 101,3 102,4 101,9 110,4 104,6 101,6 102,6 105,7 101,9 101,2 July 103,0 101,5 101,9 101,8 107,5 104,5 101,4 102,5 105,8 102,0 100,3 August 103,3 101,8 102,1 101,8 107,6 104,9 101,9 102,5 106,2 101,9 100,6 Sept. 103,6 101,7 102,8 101,7 110,8 105,3 102,3 102,5 106,4 102,0 101,6 Oct. 103,7 101,6 102,9 101,7 112,1 105,5 102,4 103,0 106,8 102,2 101,6 Nov. 103,9 101,7 103,1 101,7 112,3 105,8 102,5 103,0 107,5 102,3 101,5 Dec. 104,1 101,9 103,0 101,9 113,6 106,2 102,6 103,0 107,7 102,4 101, January 104.3p 102,5 102,9 102,2 113,1 106,9 102,7 : 107.9p 102,6 101, Rate of increase over 12 months (T/T-12) January 2,8 2,0 2,3 1,8 10,9 4,3 1,6 2,7 3,8 2,4 1,7 Feb. 2,9 1,8 2,4 1,7 10,2 4,8 1,6 2,7 4,4 2,4 1,5 March 3,1 1,8 2,7 1,6 10,1 5,2 1,7 2,7 5,2 2,4 1,5 April 3,0 1,7 2,6 1,6 9,7 5,2 1,5 2,6 5,4 2,3 1,5 May 3,0 1,5 2,5 1,6 9,6 5,1 1,5 2,6 5,3 2,3 1,2 June 3,1 1,2 2,3 1,7 9,3 5,1 1,5 2,6 5,8 2,3 1,4 July 2,8 1,0 2,0 1,4 8,6 4,6 1,4 2,0 5,6 1,9 0,9 August 2,9 1,1 1,7 1,4 8,4 4,3 1,9 2,0 6,0 1,7 0,7 Sept. 3,0 1,0 2,3 1,4 8,2 4,4 2,0 2,0 5,8 1,5 0,6 October 2,9 1,0 2,2 1,3 8,2 4,4 1,9 2,3 5,6 1,5 0,5 Nov. 2,9 1,3 2,2 1,4 7,9 4,3 2,0 2,3 5,9 1,3 0,8 Dec. 3,0 1,4 2,2 1,5 7,9 4,3 2,1 2,3 5,9 1,3 0, January 2.8p 1,6 1,8 1,4 8,1 3,9 2,0 : 5.7p 1,1 1,3 8

9 INTERIM INDICES OF CONSUMER PRICES A P FIN S UK IS N CH Annual Average 1994 = ,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100,0 100, ,0 103,8 101,0 102,9 103,0 101,6 102,5 102, Monthly Indices 98,9 98,5 98,5 98,5 98,3 99,5 98,6 99,6 January 99,2 98,9 98,9 98,9 98,8 99,7 98,9 100,0 February 99,4 99,1 99,2 99,4 99,2 99,7 99,6 100,0 March 99,6 99,7 99,6 99,9 100,1 99,9 99,6 100,0 April 99,8 99,9 99,6 100,1 100,4 99,7 99,7 99,9 May 99,7 100,0 100,4 100,0 100,5 99,8 100,0 100,1 June 100,0 100,2 100,4 100,0 99,8 99,9 100,3 100,1 July 100,2 100,4 100,6 100,0 100,4 100,0 100,2 100,1 August 100,6 100,5 100,8 100,9 100,5 100,4 100,8 100,1 Sept. 100,8 100,7 100,9 100,9 100,4 101,2 100,8 100,0 October 100,8 100,9 100,7 100,9 100,5 100,1 100,8 100,1 Nov. 100,9 101,2 100,5 100,7 100,9 100,2 100,8 100,0 Dec ,5 102,5 100,5 101,4 101,0 100,8 101,4 100,8 January 101,6 103,0 100,9 101,9 101,6 100,9 101,8 101,9 February 101,8 103,5 100,9 102,3 102,2 100,7 102,4 101,9 March 101,7 104,0 101,0 103,0 102,8 100,9 102,4 102,0 April 102,1 103,9 101,1 103,1 103,4 101,2 102,6 102,2 May 102,3 103,6 101,3 103,0 103,4 101,2 102,8 102,4 June 101,9 103,6 101,2 102,7 102,8 101,5 102,7 102,3 July 101,9 104,0 101,0 102,6 103,5 101,9 102,5 102,2 August 102,3 104,2 101,1 103,6 104,0 102,3 103,0 102,3 Sept. 102,4 104,4 101,2 103,9 103,7 102,9 102,9 102,1 October 102,4 104,5 101,0 103,9 103,7 102,4 102,8 102,1 Nov. 102,4 104,5 100,8 103,6 104,4 102,3 102,8 102,1 Dec ,2 104,9 101,3 103,0 104,2 102,9 102,2 102,4 January (T/T-12) Rate of increase over 12 months ,6 4,1 2,0 2,9 2,7 1,3 2,8 1,2 January 2,4 4,1 2,0 3,0 2,8 1,2 2,9 1,9 February 2,4 4,4 1,7 2,9 3,0 1,0 2,8 1,9 March 2,1 4,3 1,4 3,1 2,7 1,0 2,8 2,0 April 2,3 4,0 1,5 3,0 3,0 1,5 2,9 2,3 May 2,6 3,6 0,9 3,0 2,9 1,4 2,8 2,3 June 1,9 3,4 0,8 2,7 3,0 1,6 2,4 2,2 July 1,7 3,6 0,4 2,6 3,1 1,9 2,3 2,1 August 1,7 3,7 0,3 2,7 3,5 1,9 2,2 2,2 Sept. 1,6 3,7 0,3 3,0 3,3 1,7 2,1 2,1 October 1,6 3,6 0,3 3,0 3,2 2,3 2,0 2,0 Nov. 1,5 3,3 0,3 2,9 3,5 2,1 2,0 2,1 Dec ,7 2,3 0,8 1,6 3,2 2,1 0,8 1,6 January 9

10 10

11 NB: Late Rounding Corrections for the interim index of Sweden The interim index figures for Sweden should be as follows: Monthly Indices: May 1994 = February 1995 = Rate of increase over 12 months: February 1995 / February 1994 = 2.9% May 1995 / May 1994 = 3.1% NB: Letzte Rundungskorrekturen für den Interimsindex Schwedens Die Zahlen für den Interimsindex Schwedens sind wie folgt: Monatliche Indizes: Mai 1994 = Februar 1995 = Veränderungsrate über 12 Monate:Februar 1995 / Februar 1994 = 2.9% Mai 1995 / Mai 1994 = 3.1% NB: Dernières corrections en vue d arrondir l indice intérimaire de la Suède L indice intérimaire de la Suède se présente comme suit: Indices mensuels: Mai 1994 = Février 1995 = Taux de croissance sur 1 an: Février 1995 / Février 1994 = 2.9% Mai 1995 / Mai 1994 = 3.1% 11

12 National Consumer Price Indices Given below are, in ascending order of current inflation, the annual inflation rates as measured by the national consumer price indices for the individual Member States for the twelve months to January 1996 and corresponding figures for October to December 1995: January 1996 December 1995 Novembe 1995 October 1995 r January 1995 December 1994 Novembe 1994 October 1994 r FIN 0.5 % 0.3 % 0.3 % 0.3 % L 1.1 % 1.3 % 1.3 % 1.6 % D 1.6 % 1.8 % 1.7 % 1.8 % DK 1.7 % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % A : % 1.8 % 1.9 % 1.9 % NL 1.9 % 1.7 % 1.6 % 1.3 % B 2.0 % 1.5 % 1.5 % 1.2 % F 2.0 % 2.1 % 1.9 % 1.8 % S 2.0 % 2.6 % 2.7 % 2.7 % IRL 2.4 %* 2.4 %* 2.4 %* 2.4 %* P 2.5 % 3.4 % 3.9 % 4.0 % UK 2.9 % 3.2 % 3.1 % 3.2 % E 3.9 % 4.3 % 4.5 % 4.4 % I 5.4 %p 5.6 % 5.7 % 5.5 % GR 8.4 % 8.1 % 8.2 % 8.3 % EUR %p 3.0 % 3.0 % 3.0 % * The index for Ireland is quarterly; November 1995/1994 p = provisional 12

13 Issued by: Eurostat Press Office Jean Monnet Building L-2920 LUXEMBOURG Tel: (352) (352) Fax: (352)