EABL F08 Investor Group Briefing

Transcription

1 EABL F08 Investor Group Briefing outperforming in a challenging environment... Gerald Mahinda - Group Managing Director Peter Ndegwa - Group Finance Director 29 August 2008, 16h00

2 Agenda > Business Review Gerald Mahinda > Financial Review Peter Ndegwa > Q & A All

3 Introductions career background > 2004 Joined EABL Group Head of Strategy > 2006 Sales Director EABL Kenya Demand > 2008 Group Finance Director Peter Ndegwa Group Finance Director

4 Business Review Gerald Mahinda

5 Overview > Strong head-line performance with good leverage. > Great execution across all business units. > Continued strong innovation. > Despite some key challenges. talent, supply security, regulation & legislation, water, inflationary pressure. > Outlook for F09 very promising. economic restoration Kenya, accelerating regional economic growth, changing consumer shopper and retail landscape.

6 Robust performance posted vs. LY Volume* +15% Revenue** +26% PBT # +16% * includes soft drinks all reported in equivalent units ** excludes associate company revenues - tanzania # includes share of associate income - tanzania

7 Continuing Strong Delivery Trend Volumes 000EUs Revenues Mns 5Y CAGR +15% 5Y CAGR +16% 8,000 35,000 7,000 30,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 0 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 Ken Uga Tz However margins under inflationary pressure CAGR compounded average growth rate

8 Cost pressures Crude Oil Prices / Barrel - - US$ +82% world Oil prices have increased 82% in the last 12 months [F08]! Nov 06 Dec Jan 07 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Month-on-Month Overal Inflation - - F % 31.50% 29.30% 21.80% 18.20% 19.10% 13.60% 12.40% 11.70% 11.80% 12.00% 10.60% overall inflation in Kenya hit a 15yr high in May %! +255% on Jan 07. Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

9 Despite challenging environment Kenya Uganda Tanzania Real GDP Growth [2008] 4.50% 8.90% 8.00% Headline Inflation 29.30% 12.40% 9.10% source: AIG June 2008 Report

10 All markets have Outperformed 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 Kenya 5Y CAGR +17% -1% +22% +20% +27% +18% F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Uganda 5Y CAGR +14% +6% +6% +27% +27% +5% F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F % 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% Vols GDP Gw th* Vols GDP Gw th* Tanzania 5Y CAGR +7% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% 9,000 8,000 7,000 Group 5Y CAGR +15% % 6, % 4.0% 5,000 4, % 3, % -1% +2% +27% +18% F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2,000 1, % +16% F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 +20% +27% +15% Vols GDP Gw th*

11 Supported by solid investment CAPEX Kes Mns 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, F02 F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 Kes. 3,050Mn spend in F08. > Capacity > Capability > Quality > Safety We plan to spend another kshs 5bn

12 And increased marketing spend Advertising & Promotion costs F08 F07 F06 F05 F04 F ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Kes. Mns 5Y CAGR +19% Kes. 2,165Mn spend in F08. > New to world campaigns: TPF > Trade support > Innovation & renovation > Equity building

13 Amidst Changing Consumer landscape > New players. local spirits, imported beers and spirits. > Expansion of existing players supply capacity, marketing investments, RTM > Other sectors. telecoms, financial.

14 But growth prospects abound at South Africa s PCC* of 59Litres the total Eastern Africa market would be 39Mn Hl versus 11Mn today SA Botswana Cameroon Angola Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi Sudan source: plato logic, eiu, eabl *Per Capita Consumption sudan state of southern sudan

15 In our core and non-core markets massive opportunity to grow PCC in all six markets increasing incidence of transactions and recruiting new consumers Consumption / Cap Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi Sudan Consumption / Cap

16 Supported by positive fundamentals GDP at PPP/Cap [US$] growth 2008/09 Population growth 2008/09 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Kenya Uganda Tanzania source: economist intelligence unit [eiu] Rwanda Burundi Sudan 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.4% 2.5% 2.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Kenya Uganda Tanzania Rwanda Burundi Sudan source: eiu

17 The Group at a Glance Kenya Uganda Number of plants 1 Total volumes 5.7M EUs Total serves* in F08 1,255Mn Share of Group s volume 71% Top selling brands: > Senator, Tusker, Guinness > Kane Extra, Richot, Smirnoff Number of plants 1 Total volumes 1.4M EUs Total serves* in F08 310Mn Share of Group s volume 18% Top selling brands: > Bell, Senator, Pilsner > UG Waragi, Liberty, V&A * equivalent to one 500Mls pack

18 The Group at a Glance Tanzania Great Lakes Region Number of plants 0 Total volumes 0.5M EUs Total serves* in F08 110Mn Share of Group s volume 6% Top selling brands: > Tusker, Guinness, Malta Guinness > No EABL Spirit Number of plants 0 Total volumes 0.4M EUs Total serves* in F08 1,255Mn Share of Group s volume 5% Top selling brands: > Pilsner, Bell, Tusker > UG Waragi * equivalent to one 500Mls pack

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22 Strong brand portfolio performance Portfolio Shape Premium 50.5% 46.0% % Premium Mainstream Emerging 0 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 Mainstream F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08 5Y CAGR +9% 5Y CAGR +4% 5Y CAGR +50% 4,000 3,500 3,000 Emerging 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, F03 F04 F05 F06 F07 F08

23 Performance was anchored on > Strong renovation and innovation > Refreshed graphics > Equity building

24 Renovation of Mainstream > Strengthening / New consumer appeal > Refreshed graphics > Brand communication

25 Tusker Renovation > Strengthening consumer appeal > Refreshed graphics > Building equity > Reinforcing quality

26 Pilsner Re-launched > New consumer appeal > Refreshed graphics > New Brand communication

27 As well as Emerging > Strengthening consumer appeal > Refreshed graphics > Reinforcing quality credentials

28 Innovation into new market spaces Mainstream cream liqueur Adult soft drink Emerging sharing / large Pack

29 Alvaro has shown great growth > March launch > Strong consumer appeal and demand > Test market - - strong demand > 8Mn bottles [320K cases] sold in 4months! 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - March April May June July

30 Enriching the lives of our communities we touched > 336,000 lives through Water of Life > 100 scholarships to date in our Skills for Life > Launch of Green Goals: 55,000 trees planted, 62Km long cans waste recycled, biggest glass recycling and all effluent treated

31 and strong RD Campaign we intensified our execution through we ID! > 500 bars recruited and activated > 2,500 waiters trained > Modules and CD training manuals provided

32 In summary our sources of growth Innovation, Renovation & Brand Building Super Engaged Talent Commercial Capabilities Horizontal Expansion Geographic Expansion

33 Financial Performance Peter Ndegwa Group FD

34 A Solid Performance.. Growth Volume 15% Net Revenue 26% Gross Margin 22% Marketing Spend 37% Profit before Tax 16% Earnings per share 23%

35 Our brands grow profitably Volume 11% Volume -4% Gross Margin 26% Gross Margin 11% Volume -16% Volume 69% Gross Margin 10% Gross Margin 15% Volume 19% Volume 4% Gross Margin 10% Gross Margin 35% Volume 17% Volume 1% Gross Margin 24% Gross Margin 13% Volume 42% Volume 14% Gross Margin 31% Gross Margin 3%

36 Strong performance across the Region Kenya Net Sales 26.2bn 28% Profit Before Tax 9.7bn 17% Uganda Net Sales 6.6bn 17% Profit Before Tax 1.2bn 12% Tanzania Volumes (eus) 553k 32% Share of Associate 0.79bn 10% Exports Volumes 389k 105% Net Sales 1.5bn 50%

37 But clearly, a tale of two-halves +19% headline growth in H1 down to +10% in H2! Impact of PEV effects during Jan - Mar reduced distribution and consumption. F08 Growth vs. LY - - HY Comparisons 64% Intensified cost pressures - - major inflation bust, global oil price rally... A&P - - big bet --TPF II, Pilsner repositioning, Bell. 19% 10% 27% 23% 23% 22% 21% 22% 15% Overheads impacted by further spend to fund growth Vols NSV GP A&P TP Grow th - H1 Grow th - H2

38 Despite a challenging second half Kenya Uganda 1, H1 H (20) H1 H2 Tanzania EABL Group 80 1, (20) H1 H H1 H2 Share of Associate Volumes Advertising & Promotions Trading Profit

39 Growing earnings 100% % 6.8b 8.2b 8.6b 10.7b 12.3b % % % % Net Revenue Selling and distribution costs Profit before taxation Basic earnings per share

40 Cost pressures escalate > Costs continue to rise driven by inflation, fuel and cereals costs We have put measure to mitigate against these Consider source of raw material. Use of alternative raw materials 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - Cost of Goods Trend

41 Performance along key measures Net Revenue PBT Freecashflow ROIC EPS DPS Kshs 32.5 bn Growth 26% Kshs 12.3 bn Growth 16% Kshs 9.3 bn Growth 9% Rate 51% Growth 10% Kshs 9.55 Growth 23% Kshs 8.05 Growth 10%

42 Our Dividend Proposal > Final dividend proposal of Kes 5.65/share > Final dividend payment of Kes 4.5Bn > Taking full year dividend to Kes 8.05/share = +10% growth on LY (7.76) > Full year dividend payment of Kes 6.4Bn (vs 5.8bn) or 85% Pay out DPS Growth Y CAGR +26% 6.00 Kes / Share

43 Q & A

44 EABL F08 Investor Group Briefing End