Maurizio Valentini Tel.:

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Hugo Mathews
5 years ago
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1 US Dollar ANALYSIS The sub-prime mortgage woes were just such a crisis and to be honest the dollar held up pretty well. In fact these events showed clearly that if private investors become frightened central banks will pick up the slack. The stability of the US politically and socially, in spite of its enormous deficit, still leaves the US the world's most stable and reliable economy. Long term outlook is to buy the dollar and sell the euro. In the long term nobody has anything to gain from the decline of the dollar and excessive volatility in exchange rates is damaging to the growth and economy of all regions of the world. Especially China, who currently owns a substantial portion of the US debt. Also the euro's rise is beginning to hurt the competitiveness of Europe's exports and there is the possibility of central bank intervention to protect against the strong euro and weak dollar. EUR/USD $ Forecast In the near future the dollar decline and further weakness most likely will continue. I am not about to stand in the way of such a strong trend as the dollar is near all time lows against the euro. A worldwide "ditching of the dollar" would bear astronomical consequences. I don't believe anyone is ready to allow that to happen and I do believe there will be intervention to prevent it. Here below a trend analysis made from US Dollar to Euro Currency Exchange Forecast U.S. Dollars per one Euro. Average of Month. Month Date Forecast Value 50% Correct +/- 80% Correct +/- 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Updated Wednesday, June 11, 2008

2 However, the markets have not just fallen due to the anticipations of slow business trends, but also because the ongoing credit crisis, which started in the spring of 2007 due to the so-called subprime loans, has not been resolved yet. We expect the dollar to increase further, because it looks undervalued - investor sentiment associated with the dollar is very negative - and because some of the flow into EUR will turn when the slowdown is felt in the euro zone. As long as the interest-rate gap and slowdown in growth seem to be worst for the US, the pressure on the dollar may continue for a while before things turn around. The current extreme sentiment which is of both a psychological and fundamental nature may still turn out to open up for a much-needed correction. Should such correction change into an actual trend change for USD, it requires that the Americans start turning their enormous capital flow towards domestic shores. So far, it seems that a change of the ECB s present monetary policy is long in coming, which has been an important factor behind the recent increase in EUR/USD. For the time being, we maintain our positive view of USD. My personal opinion My personal opinion is based into 3 forecasts factors: 1. The election day, on November 2008; probably the Democratic will govern the USA for the next 4 years. Anyone who will be elected certainly will try to demonstrate their economic capacity. The actual depreciation of the America economy is an easy factor for them. One of the priorities will be to reorganize the bank financial market and NGI (National Gross Income). 2. One of these priorities will be the Real Estate and continuing to give at the internal market (the domestic market) the capacity to acquire the house. Actually the banks finance the 70% of the property price with a long term loan (30 years). Before the American banks financed the domestic market at 90%; this was one of the major power engines of the USA real estate. With the new rules, the domestic need to save 30% of the property price. In my opinion the necessary time to create these funds for each domestic family will be 2/3 years. 3. The Democratic policies is always based to the fast return at home of the USA troupes. This will dramatically reduce the war expenses and should create new financial energies in the Balance Sheet of the USA. US Dollar to Euro Currency Exchange Rate Past Trend Present Value & Future Projection CONCLUSIONS:

3 The actual exchange rate helps in a substantial way the European investors to direct their interest in the USA Real Estate at the following conditions: a) Buy properties in much selected area that attract the foreign interest Florida (only Miami) and NY downtown Manhattan. b) Buy properties of medium size (not less than 120m² and not bigger than 300 m²). c) Acquire the property with a company (corporation) to avoid a future taxation on the expected profit. The estimated yield return on these types of properties is about 4.5% net + all potential revaluation of real estate and expected future USD revaluation. During my trip in Miami, I visited several residential condominiums and I selected some of it, reported here below Brickell avenue: nice internal volumes, nice fitting, excellent location just before the bridge of Key Biscayne, condominium very well maintained, price: VERY ATTRACTIVE. In my opinion this property will increase faster than the others its value. Brickell is the most prestigious street of Miami. Naturally there are so many nice condominiums but the price are much more expensive than this one. The discounted price is just $ % of my intermediary fees. : Internal surface of 140 m² divided in 2 bed rooms + living room and kitchen. Terrace but no sea view. Condominium amenities: Swimming pool, Tropical garden, fitness room, mini market, Valet parking, and security 24/24. Rent value: $ per month. Fees: $ 790 per month hurricane insurance included. Annual tax $ Estimated Yield return on the investment : 5.4% EPIC Miami Hotel and Residences is uniquely situated at the mouth of the Miami River, these luxury Miami pre-constructions merge placid water front living with all that is exhilarating about Miami's city life. EPIC Miami Hotel and Residences brings you the best of Miami condo lifestyle and resort living to upcoming its Kimpton Hotels downtown Miami location. Ugo Colombo's legacy of unfailing perfectionism touches EPIC Miami Hotel and Residences, making this luxury Miami condos premier luxury real estate. This property will be finished 1 st quarter Considering the high quality of this construction, also the prices are more expensive of the others condominium. However, the Ugo Colombo constructions are considered the most prestigious of the South of Florida. His clients are worldwide VIP peoples that never suffers of market recession. I selected 2 types of units, range from $ to $

5 The elegant Trump Towers are situated on 250 feet of oceanfront with beachfront cabanas, an exquisite three-story lobby and will offer 24 hour concierge & valet. The swimming pool will have a poolside bar and pool attendants. Residential units will have private elevators, Italian cabinetry with granite, Miele and sub-zero appliances, floor to ceiling windows with panoramic Spectacular Ocean and intracoastal views. Luxury is the key ingredient for this project with stunning floor-to-ceiling windows opening out to oversized balcony with smooth glass and aluminum railings, elegant porte-cochere entrances providing 24/7 full valet services and an exquisitely appointed three-story lobby, as well as a convenient and secure three-story parking garage. From my point of view, Collins Ave. is a very comfortable and nice location the towers are built between the two most famous and exclusive Malls of Florida, the Aventura Mall and the Bal Harbour Mall. My selection is based on the very discounted prices for units range from $ to $

Quarterly Economic and Financial Developments Report March 2018

Quarterly Economic and Financial Developments Report March 2018 Prepared by the Research Department 1 Overview of Domestic Economic Developments REAL SECTOR Indications are that the domestic economy expanded